RG3:1 of 9 Modern QBs to Always Be Blown Out When Throwing 38+ Passes

[velocet]

ncr2h,

 

 

As you know, the league has sought to increase scoring and that by the most exciting means possible, passing.  So a lot of rules stuff has been coming down the pike to that end.   I'd like to ask if you think this move to a "pass happy league"  is any kind of relevant factor with respect to your analysis, or is perhaps a skewing of some major kind going to take place years later; i.e. nearly every team chucks it 40+ times a game every game anyway?   Thanks in advance!

 

 

 

velocet

[Veretax]

I'm not sure why people think this is a pro cousins article.  If anything, I think its more likely neither one is going to amount to anything much.  Or was I the only one to come to that conclusion>?

[redskins59]

You throw more when you're losing.  Sure, it is possible that the Redskins lose when RG3 is throwing a lot because he is a bad passer (and he is pretty bad this year, no question), But did you ever think that they are also losing because of a bad defense?  If you have a historically bad defense, no matter how many times you throw, it won't matter.  

By the way, the stat-padding argument has been disproved on cpnd.  There is a thread there somewhere.

[ncr2h]

You didn't watch the Steelers at all the last two times they got to the SB did you?  Big Ben, while not the pocket surgeon Brees et al. are, has thrown for a lot more yards and had shootout games (including the SB with Arizona) and had to win, not on the back of a great defense, but as the MOST important part of the offense.  You could only make the case he rode a great D/running game for his first SB but not long after (and it's not like you could plug anyone into that team, otherwise someone else would have won the SB with them before, like Maddox) he was the main cog in their success, though he has, admittedly, been hurt and dealt with off-field things (allegations, motorcycle crash) that have derailed individual seasons.

 

If you disagree with my assertion that Roethlisberger is an outstanding game manager, which is what I labelled him in my OP, then I think it's just semantics.  He's clearly a good QB, but not an elite passer.  I think most people would put him a couple of notches below Rodgers, Brees, Manning, and Brady.  That's what I'm saying the ceiling for RG3 is - the absolute best case scenario is that he's a guy who, if everything else in is place, will absolutely win you the ring.  Cousins' ceiling appears to be higher - he could potentially be elite.  He might not be, but we don't know enough yet.  Also, RG3's floor is lower.  He could be John Beck with more marketing.  I don't think that's what he is, and he certainly looked much better than that last year, but we have to consider the impact of a 2nd ACL on a guy who relies on his speed to soften up the defense.

Marc Bulger and Drew Bledsoe top "Cat 1"...... End of analysis.

 

Pretty simple, this offense is built on running. If the QB is throwing 38 times a game it's not good.

 

Plus a 2 touchdown margin in the "modern NFL" is not a "blowout."

 

That's funny, because if I were to look at just the two Cousins games I would have told you that this was a pass first offense.  It seems that we are only a run first offense when RG3 is under center.  Do you think the coaches, knowing RG3's limitations as a pocket QB, choose to rely more on the run in order to take pressure off his arm?  Do you think that would happen if he were a young elite passing talent, like Rodgers or Brees or Brady?

[Taylor703]

I mean ...how in the world can you be so definitive by saying he won't be an elite passer?  Most elite passers, were far from elite before ...they became elite. the NFL is riddled with stories like this. 

 

Brees did not start off elite. Neither did Rogers - if he was so damn elite why did it take  him 3 years to start his first game, its because he was not elite, he had a lot clipboard holding to do before he became elite. 

 

Steve Young? Honestly, explain why it took him until the age of 31 to throw over 20 TD's in a season??? Was he biding his time?

 

Favre? Threw 24 picks his third  year in the league. 

 

Alex Smith - as of today, is playing at an elite level ... he would have miserably failed your rating system. 

 

Based on your loose rational, you would have written off the majority of the guys you now call elite? Makes no sense.

Because he's trying to find any metric he can to support his agenda, even ones he pulls completely out of his ass. The wonderful part about this is it proves absolutely nothing. Brady, Manning, Brees and Rodgers were not elite QBs in their second seasons and Brees actually had another player drafted to replace him after his third year.

How he thinks Griffin needs an elite team around to succeed when he along with Morris basically pushed this team to the playoffs by themselves. He set numerous rookie passing records and was amazingly efficient but hey that doesn't fit his agenda either so he'll only mention his injury riddled season. Oh well, it is what it is and it's not surprising at all the certain posters that have agreed with him. The best part about this is all these posts will be documented so when Griffin has an amazing season next year he can answer to them.

[Ozymandias]

 

That's funny, because if I were to look at just the two Cousins games I would have told you that this was a pass first offense.  It seems that we are only a run first offense when RG3 is under center.  Do you think the coaches, knowing RG3's limitations as a pocket QB, choose to rely more on the run in order to take pressure off his arm?  Do you think that would happen if he were a young elite passing talent, like Rodgers or Brees or Brady?

 

Umm, did you not watch the browns game?  Morris had 27 carries, and 2 touchdowns. the team had 35 carries, and 37 pass attempts from cousins. Yeah, that really screams pass first offense.

[elkabong82]

This thread in picture form:

 

[ncr2h]

I mean ...how in the world can you be so definitive by saying he won't be an elite passer?  Most elite passers, were far from elite before ...they became elite. the NFL is riddled with stories like this. 

 

Brees did not start off elite. Neither did Rogers - if he was so damn elite why did it take  him 3 years to start his first game, its because he was not elite, he had a lot clipboard holding to do before he became elite. 

 

Steve Young? Honestly, explain why it took him until the age of 31 to throw over 20 TD's in a season??? Was he biding his time?

 

Favre? Threw 24 picks his third  year in the league. 

 

Alex Smith - as of today, is playing at an elite level ... he would have miserably failed your rating system. 

 

Based on your loose rational, you would have written off the majority of the guys you now call elite? Makes no sense. 

 

I think it's false that today's passers can learn how to become elite while they're in the NFL.  Being elite is something you likely learn in college, or maybe before.  Or maybe you never learn it at all, and it's just an instinctive thing that some guys are born with or grow up with, while most others don't.

 

Young is an old timer and may have grown up in an era where that didn't apply.  However, I do know that Favre passed the 38+ metric in his very first start.  Alex Smith did not fail my model - he is classified in the game manager category.  At this stage in his career, he is a good game manager.  But he's a game manager nonetheless.

 

Kurt Warner passed the 38+ metric in his first start.  Rodgers in his 2nd.  Brady in his 3rd.  Rivers in his 4th.  Brees in his 6th.  Manning in his 10th.  This isn't something the elite guys have to learn how to do over time - they can do it right away.

[KCClybun]

This thread in video form...

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNsrK6P9QvI

[RemoveSnyder]

This thread in video form...

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BNsrK6P9QvI

 

I was thinking something more like this:

[ncr2h]

ncr2h,

 

 

As you know, the league has sought to increase scoring and that by the most exciting means possible, passing.  So a lot of rules stuff has been coming down the pike to that end.   I'd like to ask if you think this move to a "pass happy league"  is any kind of relevant factor with respect to your analysis, or is perhaps a skewing of some major kind going to take place years later; i.e. nearly every team chucks it 40+ times a game every game anyway?   Thanks in advance!

 

 

 

velocet

I think it limits the applicability of this model to other eras.  For example, the only explanation I can offer for why Steve Young ended up being a HOF QB even though he would have been in RG3's same bucket at the end of his 2nd year starting is that his rookie season was 1985, which was before the NFL became the passing league that it is today.  Young actually didn't get his first 38+ win until 1994, under Mike Shanahan.  Crazy, I know.

 

Elway had 2.  Montana had only 1.  Marino had 5.  Simms had 0.  Jim Kelly had 2.

 

The model doesn't appear to be applicable to these old-timers.  I suspect that if we dropped the cut-off to something like 35, we could do a similar analysis with them.

 

I think you're right that in the future, 38 times might not be all that much and 40+ would be more predictive.

I'm not sure why people think this is a pro cousins article.  If anything, I think its more likely neither one is going to amount to anything much.  Or was I the only one to come to that conclusion>?

I agree that that's a possibility.  Cousins could end up missing the coveted 3 38+ wins metric (and even if he hit that, it's not a guarantee that he'll be elite; it just keeps him from being disqualified).  Griffin could end up never improving on his 2012 season, or not ever being as good as he was in 2012.

Because he's trying to find any metric he can to support his agenda, even ones he pulls completely out of his ass. The wonderful part about this is it proves absolutely nothing. Brady, Manning, Brees and Rodgers were not elite QBs in their second seasons and Brees actually had another player drafted to replace him after his third year.

How he thinks Griffin needs an elite team around to succeed when he along with Morris basically pushed this team to the playoffs by themselves. He set numerous rookie passing records and was amazingly efficient but hey that doesn't fit his agenda either so he'll only mention his injury riddled season. Oh well, it is what it is and it's not surprising at all the certain posters that have agreed with him. The best part about this is all these posts will be documented so when Griffin has an amazing season next year he can answer to them.

 

Griffin set rookie passing efficiency records.  As did Ben Roethlisberger.  My model predicts that Griffin's ceiling is Ben Roethlisberger.  Do you find that to be a coincidence?  Being efficient is all nice and dandy, but at the end of the day when we're talking about an elite QB we're talking about a guy who can put up huge numbers while maintaining high efficiency.

[Ghost of]

tom brady was an above average game manager until 2007 who happened to be pretty clutch.  never had 30 TDs, had a mid 80s QB average, but had a sick defense and a great run game to lean on.  not until he was 30 years old did he start the crazy 35+ TD psycho QB stuff.

 

Gonna have to sort of disagree with you there. /Lumberg

 

Brady was definitely a game manager his first year but people have to remember (as they are prone to forget with receiving and passing numbers) that Brady put up 3700 yards in 2002, which back then, was impressive.  Remember it was Irsay and Polian ****ing to the league that made passing EVEN EASIER than the 150 catch seasons that were accruing (OK, i exaggerate but the jump in catches shot up) and passing yardage at the ELITE level shot up.  I'd consider 28 TDs and 3700 yards in 2002 to be pretty elite for a guy, though his YPA was not high, he had a lot of attempts because they trusted him with teh ball and didn't have a running attack. He threw for over 4,000 yards in 2005.

 

Just watching the game, I think is what you should do, and yes the defense was often quite good (not every game---See the Super Bowl vs. Carolina, where he had to win a shootout, or even the game vs. Philly which was just as much about offense as defense) you'd know he stepped out of game manager status pretty soon.  The stats are just overinflated now with the rules enforcement, as well as systemic changes in how football is played.  

 

Being a trustworthy passer who excels when you spread the field and wins you games in the clutch makes you elite, in my book.

[jaybrant]

Models Shmodels lol.... That nine game win streak (and the first two drives in the wildcard game) in Rob's rookie season was led by an elite player at QB and it's a damn that shame it ended the way that it did.

 

I'm excited for him to go into this offseason healthy so he can come out and do it again next year. I'm still a believer.

[Hubbs]

Excellent work, but I simply can't agree based on the arbitrary nature of picking the number of passes and the number of seasons. I mean, according to this logic, Mark Sanchez is more likely to become a HOFer than RG3. You had to explain away guys who didn't fit the criteria, but would have fit if only they weren't sitting on the bench for X number of years. And that doesn't even take into account the fact that Russell Wilson, who I think we all agree is more similar to RG3 than, say, the statue commonly referred to as Drew Bledsoe, hasn't even thrown 38 passes once, yet is running the offense for the team most likely to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

 

In other words, statistics can either illuminate or cloud solid judgment, and I think this is an example of the latter.

[ncr2h]

Models Shmodels lol.... That nine game win streak (and the first two drives in the wildcard game) in Rob's rookie season was led by an elite player at QB and it's a damn that shame it ended the way that it did.

 

I'm excited for him to go into this offseason healthy so he can come out and do it again next year. I'm still a believer.

The win streak was very exciting.  But not led by elite QB play.  It was led by an elite rushing attack.  During Griffin's part of the streak, we rushed the ball an average of 33 times per game, passing for only 22 times per game.  In summary, we had a dominant running game and a brutally efficient passing game.

 

2 things made that offense go -

 

(1) The QB, who could run a 4.3 40, was a threat in the run game.  Being able to run a 4.3 40 made Robert Griffin the fastest player on the field at any given time.  Defenses had to work extra hard to contain him, because losing contain on him meant a huge gain, if not a TD.

 

(2) Defenses did not know how to react to our play action game, largely due to zone-read looks.  Linebackers would get sucked up to the LOS on every play action fake, opening up gigantic holes behind them for our players to run into.

 

It's 2013, and the QB can no longer run a 4.3 40.  Instead of being the fastest guy on the field, he's more like a possession WR or athletic tight end.  That's a huge burden off the defense's back.  Also, defenses have adjusted to how they will play against our play action game.  Linebackers are being told to stay put in their zones rather than react to the action in the backfield, knowing that RG3 will refuse to throw the ball if the window is too tight.

 

I agree that 2012 was impressive, and I think that we legitimately could have won the Super Bowl if RG3 hadn't tweaked his knee against the Ravens.  That being said, it's not simply a matter of RG3 getting back to his 2012 self - the league has changed.  Even if he gets his speed all the way back (huge if), he's not going to be the aggressive runner we saw in 2012, knowing that he's 1 ACL away from retirement.  Also, defenses have adjusted the way they're going to play him, and he has consistently proven during 2013 that their adjustments are working.  So it's not just RG3 that changed in 2013, it's also the rest of the league.  I'm not very confident that even if he regained his 2012 form, that our team would regain its 2012 results.

Excellent work, but I simply can't agree based on the arbitrary nature of picking the number of passes and the number of seasons. I mean, according to this logic, Mark Sanchez is more likely to become a HOFer than RG3. You had to explain away guys who didn't fit the criteria, but would have fit if only they weren't sitting on the bench for X number of years. And that doesn't even take into account the fact that Russell Wilson, who I think we all agree is more similar to RG3 than, say, the statue commonly referred to as Drew Bledsoe, hasn't even thrown 38 passes once, yet is running the offense for the team most likely to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl.

 

In other words, statistics can either illuminate or cloud solid judgment, and I think this is an example of the latter.

 

I don't think any statistical model is going to be perfect, especially when butt fumbling is involved.  With respect to Wilson, I don't see any evidence so far that the model is wrong.  The model says that the guy could potentially be an outstanding game manager, like Steve McNair or Ben Roethlisberger.  There's no shame in that.  But if he were going to be an elite passer like Peyton or Brady, who can win the game with his arm even if his defense and special teams suck, he would have shown that by now (i.e. his coaches would have allowed him to air it out more, rather than relying so much on the run).

[Hubbs]

I don't think any statistical model is going to be perfect, especially when butt fumbling is involved.  With respect to Wilson, I don't see any evidence so far that the model is wrong.  The model says that the guy could potentially be an outstanding game manager, like Steve McNair or Ben Roethlisberger.  There's no shame in that.  But if he were going to be an elite passer like Peyton or Brady, who can win the game with his arm even if his defense and special teams suck, he would have shown that by now (i.e. his coaches would have allowed him to air it out more, rather than relying so much on the run).

 

How on Earth would Wilson have "shown it" if he was never even given the opportunity to do so?

[ncr2h]

How on Earth would Wilson have "shown it" if he was never even given the opportunity to do so?

His coach looks at him in practice or on film, sees that his arm is elite, and decides to air it out a little more in the next game.  Kind of like our coaches seem to be doing with Griffin and Cousins - rely on Griffin's feet, rely on Cousins' arm.

[Cliffmark1]

I would say if we were truly run first this year we would have won more games. we just didn't have that many first downs and offensive snaps this year.

I believe there is like a 90% chance rg3 becomes elite but obviously he has work to do to get there and like a 50% chance for cousins. overall I think that's a good position to be in as a franchise but until we know what happens with rg3 in a full offseason it would be an incredible gamble with the franchise to deal kirk.

[Hubbs]

His coach looks at him in practice or on film, sees that his arm is elite, and decides to air it out a little more in the next game.  Kind of like our coaches seem to be doing with Griffin and Cousins - rely on Griffin's feet, rely on Cousins' arm.

 

Right, which gets back to my point that this measurement is entirely arbitrary, and relies upon evaluating RG3 by standards that most of the other QBs on the list couldn't physically perform. Drew Bledsoe amassed 38 attempts a number of times in part because he couldn't run away from defenders attempting to sack him. How is that factored into this analysis?

[ncr2h]

Right, which gets back to my point that this measurement is entirely arbitrary, and relies upon evaluating RG3 by standards that most of the other QBs on the list couldn't physically perform. Drew Bledsoe amassed 38 attempts a number of times in part because he couldn't run away from defenders attempting to sack him. How is that factored into this analysis?

It's factored into this analysis because elite QBs don't spend play after play running away from defenders.  They throw the ball to open receivers.

 

We're evaluating elite passing talent.  I think you're losing focus on that.  RG3 doesn't get extra points because he's faster than 95% of the guys listed.  Can he pass at an elite level, or can he not?  The answer so far is no.  He can be remarkably efficient, when healthy.  But "elite" is more than just remarkably efficient.  It means you're efficient and prolific at the same time.  And based on a quick metric of the elite QBs, all of them repeatedly flashed the ability to be prolific at a very early stage in their careers.  A stage which RG3 has already passed.

[Rakpwned427]

It's factored into this analysis because elite QBs don't spend play after play running away from defenders. They throw the ball to open receivers.

We're evaluating elite passing talent. I think you're losing focus on that. RG3 doesn't get extra points because he's faster than 95% of the guys listed. Can he pass at an elite level, or can he not? The answer so far is no. He can be remarkably efficient, when healthy. But "elite" is more than just remarkably efficient. It means you're efficient and prolific at the same time. And based on a quick metric of the elite QBs, all of them repeatedly flashed the ability to be prolific at a very early stage in their careers. A stage which RG3 has already passed.

You are off your rocker. There is no "stage" or "metric." This is a made up thin by you to try to prove a point that you are selling no one on. Your static doesnt prove anything.

You have way too much time on your hands to over analyze everything.

[Probos]

Did you do your little QB stats project with 35+ pass attempts,...or maybe, oh I don't know, 37+?

 

Did you factor in if there was a full moon on those days maybe,......or wind speeds of 20+ mph?

 

Also, I've heard that if QBs eat Honey Nut Cheerios as their pre-game meal before the game and throw the 38+ passes the chances of their team losing or being "blown out" increase exponentially.

[Garcon More Wine]

Gonna have to sort of disagree with you there. /Lumberg

 

Brady was definitely a game manager his first year but people have to remember (as they are prone to forget with receiving and passing numbers) that Brady put up 3700 yards in 2002, which back then, was impressive.  Remember it was Irsay and Polian ****ing to the league that made passing EVEN EASIER than the 150 catch seasons that were accruing (OK, i exaggerate but the jump in catches shot up) and passing yardage at the ELITE level shot up.  I'd consider 28 TDs and 3700 yards in 2002 to be pretty elite for a guy, though his YPA was not high, he had a lot of attempts because they trusted him with teh ball and didn't have a running attack. He threw for over 4,000 yards in 2005.

 

Just watching the game, I think is what you should do, and yes the defense was often quite good (not every game---See the Super Bowl vs. Carolina, where he had to win a shootout, or even the game vs. Philly which was just as much about offense as defense) you'd know he stepped out of game manager status pretty soon.  The stats are just overinflated now with the rules enforcement, as well as systemic changes in how football is played.  

 

Being a trustworthy passer who excels when you spread the field and wins you games in the clutch makes you elite, in my book.

 

yeeeeeah.  oh im also gonna need you to go ahead and come in on sunday.....yeeeah....we lost some people and sorta need to play catchup.  mmkay?  thaaaaaaaanks.

 

maybe game manager was a little harsh in regards to brady, i guess im just saying he had a lot of help early on.  corey dillon running for 1600+, their defense being a juggernaut with a young seymour, young wilfork, those classic LBers they had, and the great secondary.  it wasnt a one man show like it is today.  so while youre right, his numbers were very good early on, it wasnt the tom brady show like it is today.  and i still think theyre the least dominant dynasty ever: they won all 3 superbowls by last minute field goals, and when their offense started dropping 50 spots on people, they couldnt win a bowl after that.  but, digress haha.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

4 pages in and I'm still no clearer on what this thread is all about. 

 

Hail. 

[Garcon More Wine]

4 pages in and I'm still no clearer on what this thread is all about. 

 

Hail. 

 

a very stupid stat trying to pigeon hole a QB thats played one amazing season, and one bad one coming off a major knee injury with a terrible team.

 

thats all ive got.