RG3:1 of 9 Modern QBs to Always Be Blown Out When Throwing 38+ Passes

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

a very stupid stat trying to pigeon hole a QB thats played one amazing season, and one bad one coming off a major knee injury with a terrible team.

 

thats all ive got.

 

I'm reminded this is also the same dude who sticks to it we have one of the best O-lines in the entire league. 

 

Sounds about right. 

 

Hail. 

[gortiz]

I think it's false that today's passers can learn how to become elite while they're in the NFL.  Being elite is something you likely learn in college, or maybe before.  Or maybe you never learn it at all, and it's just an instinctive thing that some guys are born with or grow up with, while most others don't.

 

Young is an old timer and may have grown up in an era where that didn't apply.  However, I do know that Favre passed the 38+ metric in his very first start.  Alex Smith did not fail my model - he is classified in the game manager category.  At this stage in his career, he is a good game manager.  But he's a game manager nonetheless.

 

Kurt Warner passed the 38+ metric in his first start.  Rodgers in his 2nd.  Brady in his 3rd.  Rivers in his 4th.  Brees in his 6th.  Manning in his 10th.  This isn't something the elite guys have to learn how to do over time - they can do it right away.

 

Listen, there could be some elements to validity to what you saying,  but you are not taking into account how these players were brought along and what their careers amounted to prior to hitting that 38+ metric. The metric can not stand on its own ... way too many factors that influence it and it should not and frankly cannot be your definitive guide to judging RG3's future. 

 

My point is, despite your metric, you would have written off all these elite QB's without or without your metric.  

 

When Warner was making his way through you would have never given him a shot to have the career he had ...

 

Brady? Sure he did amazing things at Michigan but after he got drafted and after sitting his rooking no one leading into his second year nothing would have told you he was going to be as good as he became - before he hit his 38+ metric.

 

Prior to Brees breaking out in San Diego you would have written him off. He was a nobody, he had showed nothing. 

 

Manning, was the number 1 overall and a blue chipper that could not miss ... but after 8 years in the NFL and a 3-6 playoff record, i'm sure people were questioning him as an elite QB. 

a very stupid stat trying to pigeon hole a QB thats played one amazing season, and one bad one coming off a major knee injury with a terrible team.

 

thats all ive got.

 

I mean, what's amazing is his 2nd season , in the grand scheme of things,  was not that, that bad. It just was that, that bad compared to the bar he set with the first season. 

The win streak was very exciting.  But not led by elite QB play.  

12 TD's and 2 Int's over a 6 game stretch, FOR A ROOKIE, is elite. 

[Garcon More Wine]

I'm reminded this is also the same dude who sticks to it we have one of the best O-lines in the entire league. 

 

Sounds about right. 

 

Hail. 

 

lol thank god ive never seen that post.  chester and polumbus who are about as below average as it gets, licht/montgomry are average at best, and williams is obviously a beast.

 

like meatloaf said, 1 out of 5 aint bad........or something

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

lol thank god ive never seen that post.  chester and polumbus who are about as below average as it gets, licht/montgomry are average at best, and williams is obviously a beast.

 

like meatloaf said, 1 out of 5 aint bad........or something

 

For ***** and giggles you want to bring that up with him and sit back in dumbfounded amazement at the response. 

 

Hail. 

[Rodriggo]

That's funny, because if I were to look at just the two Cousins games I would have told you that this was a pass first offense.  It seems that we are only a run first offense when RG3 is under center.  Do you think the coaches, knowing RG3's limitations as a pocket QB, choose to rely more on the run in order to take pressure off his arm?  Do you think that would happen if he were a young elite passing talent, like Rodgers or Brees or Brady?

 

People just need to start coming out and openly saying they don't want RG3. Stop hiding behind ******** contrived stats, admit it, it's ok....embrace the evil inside you, let it flow through you....go ahead and embrace the dark side.

 

When the ES Civil War breaks out after Griff DOESN'T throw for 600 yards and rush for a buck fifty in the first preseason game of 2014 I want to know who my mortal enemies are.

 

You haven't bought in yet, you never will, it's ok. I wish you and your ilk nothing but the worst in your endeavor to find a new Redskins starting QB.

[Taylor703]

People just need to start coming out and openly saying they don't want RG3. Stop hiding behind ******** contrived stats, admit it, it's ok....embrace the evil inside you, let it flow through you....go ahead and embrace the dark side.

 

When the ES Civil War breaks out after Griff DOESN'T throw for 600 yards and rush for a buck fifty in the first preseason game of 2014 I want to know who my mortal enemies are.

 

You haven't bought in yet, you never will, it's ok. I wish you and your ilk nothing but the worst in your endeavor to find a new Redskins starting QB.

The best part about the whole "elite young passer" argument is he uses Brees as part of the argument. He completely ignores the fact that Brees was far worse than Griffin ever was his first three years in the league. He sucked so bad that the Chargers used a top 5 pick to replace him.

[Rodriggo]

The best part about the whole "elite young passer" argument is he uses Brees as part of the argument. He completely ignores the fact that Brees was far worse than Griffin ever was his first three years in the league. He sucked so bad that the Chargers used a top 5 pick to replace him.

 

Yeah, the best part is most Pro-Griffs are the first to admit he had a bad year but aren't willing to throw the baby out with the bath water.

 

2013 happened but so did 2012 and so did that god **** ACL injury.

[ncr2h]

Did you do your little QB stats project with 35+ pass attempts,...or maybe, oh I don't know, 37+?

 

Did you factor in if there was a full moon on those days maybe,......or wind speeds of 20+ mph?

 

Also, I've heard that if QBs eat Honey Nut Cheerios as their pre-game meal before the game and throw the 38+ passes the chances of their team losing or being "blown out" increase exponentially.

If you read the thread, lowering the threshold to 35 so that non-elite passers like RG3 can get into the elite passers club has a few problems:

 

(1) Joey Harrington (3), Rex Grossman (5), Brandon Weeden (1), Jason Campbell (1), etc. all have games in their first 2 years where they won with 35+.  Apparently, it isn't all that hard to do.  I didn't do a full blown analysis but it's obvious that the categories become meaningless.

 

(2) RG3 has only 1 win with 35+ in his first 2 years.  This makes him a LIKELY BUST.  He goes in the same bucket as Geno Smith, Tim Tebow, Patrick Ramsey, JP Losman, etc.  There are very few actual franchise QBs, if any, who only passed the 38+ metric 1 time.  Brunell and Trent Green have valid excuses.  Actual elite passers have 3+ 38 pass wins in their first two seasons.  RG3 barely has 3 wins with 30+ passes (he's 3-11 in games where we ask him to throw a mere 30 times).

 

(3) Why do you guys constantly want me to lower the standards for RG3?  Isn't he a franchise QB?  Michael Vick, Geno Smith, and Tim Tebow all at least did it ONCE in their first two years.  What's RG3's excuse?  Heck, Cousins won with 37 in his first start, which is something RG3 has never done (closest RG3 came was losing by 7 to the 2nd worst defense in the league).

[TheGoodBits]

If you read the thread, lowering the threshold to 35 so that non-elite passers like RG3 can get into the elite passers club has a few problems:

 

(1) Joey Harrington (3), Rex Grossman (5), Brandon Weeden (1), Jason Campbell (1), etc. all have games in their first 2 years where they won with 35+.  Apparently, it isn't all that hard to do.  I didn't do a full blown analysis but it's obvious that the categories become meaningless.

 

 

You mean to tell me that your stats game doesn't work unless you start with an outcome in mind and work backwards? Who would have thought!

[ncr2h]

The best part about the whole "elite young passer" argument is he uses Brees as part of the argument. He completely ignores the fact that Brees was far worse than Griffin ever was his first three years in the league. He sucked so bad that the Chargers used a top 5 pick to replace him.

 

If you'd have paid attention to the overall message of this thread, it's the following:

 

For young quarterbacks, efficiency is overrated.  To prove that they have potential to be elite, quarterbacks at a very young age need to win while posting a large volume of throws.  They can learn how to be efficient later on in their careers.

 

As I showed before, Brees won while posting a ton of throws in the 6th game of his career.  He then did it again in his 10th and 12th starts.  The guy flashed elite passing capabilities as a rookie.  He had a crappy second year but that didn't erase the elite potential that he showed his first year.

You mean to tell me that your stats game doesn't work unless you start with an outcome in mind and work backwards? Who would have thought!

Ok, fine I'll lower the standard to 35.

 

RG3 is now a bust, like Michael Vick, Tim Tebow, and Geno Smith.  Are you satisfied?  At least I tried to rationalize why RG3 has the ceiling of Ben Roethlisberger and Steve McNair, but hey, if you want to cut to the chase and declare him a complete bust right now, be my guest.

[TheGoodBits]

 

Ok, fine I'll lower the standard to 35.

 

RG3 is now a bust, like Michael Vick, Tim Tebow, and Geno Smith.  Are you satisfied?  At least I tried to rationalize why RG3 has the ceiling of Ben Roethlisberger and Steve McNair, but hey, if you want to cut to the chase and declare him a complete bust right now, be my guest.

 

Do you realize how insanely dumb your approach is? How meaningless and empty your assertions are? It's like Atlanta Skins Fan (I think?) a couple years back who was utterly convinced he had a fool-proof model for projecting the career of an NFL QB. He GUARANTEED based on the formula he came up with that Greg McElroy was the next Tom Brady. The one thing I'll give him is that his ridiculous formula was not quite as dumb as yours, because it incorporated more than just 1 stat and more data than just 28 NFL starts for Griffin and TWO 2 TWO ****ing starts for Cousins.

 

So that's right. Your formula is WORSE than the one that guaranteed Greg McElroy would be an elite NFL QB. 

[ncr2h]

Do you realize how insanely dumb your approach is? How meaningless and empty your assertions are? It's like Atlanta Skins Fan (I think?) a couple years back who was utterly convinced he had a fool-proof model for projecting the career of an NFL QB. He GUARANTEED based on the formula he came up with that Greg McElroy was the next Tom Brady. The one thing I'll give him is that his ridiculous formula was not quite as dumb as yours, because it incorporated more than just 1 stat and more data than just 28 NFL starts for Griffin and TWO 2 TWO ****ing starts for Cousins.

 

So that's right. Your formula is WORSE than the one that guaranteed Greg McElroy would be an elite NFL QB. 

Why are you so insulted by the idea that Griffin has outstanding game manager potential?  His ceiling is still plenty high, according to this metric.  It's just not limitless, like Cousins' still is.  Ben Roethlisberger, Steve McNair, and Matt Ryan are all very good quarterbacks and we'd be lucky to have a guy like that in DC, wouldn't we?

 

Griffin flashed his managerial potential as a rookie, where he was historically efficient.  If he could get back to his 2012 form, he might be one of the best game managers of all time.  Then again, with 2 ACL injuries already he might not ever get back to his 2012 form.

[TheGoodBits]

Why are you so insulted by the idea that Griffin has outstanding game manager potential?  His ceiling is still plenty high, according to this metric.  It's just not limitless, like Cousins' still is.  Ben Roethlisberger, Steve McNair, and Matt Ryan are all very good quarterbacks and we'd be lucky to have a guy like that in DC, wouldn't we?

 

Griffin flashed his managerial potential as a rookie, where he was historically efficient.  If he could get back to his 2012 form, he might be one of the best game managers of all time.  Then again, with 2 ACL injuries already he might not ever get back to his 2012 form.

 

So the answer to my first question is clearly no. You don't understand. And that's fine, just don't be surprised when you are continuously ridiculed. 

[Garcon More Wine]

Why are you so insulted by the idea that Griffin has outstanding game manager potential?  His ceiling is still plenty high, according to this metric.  It's just not limitless, like Cousins' still is.  Ben Roethlisberger, Steve McNair, and Matt Ryan are all very good quarterbacks and we'd be lucky to have a guy like that in DC, wouldn't we?

 

Griffin flashed his managerial potential as a rookie, where he was historically efficient.  If he could get back to his 2012 form, he might be one of the best game managers of all time.  Then again, with 2 ACL injuries already he might not ever get back to his 2012 form.

 

so throwing for 4 TDs in two separate games constitutes a game manager?  8 games with a 100+ QB rating?  6 games with a comp % of over 70 (and these werent just baby short passes like something campbell/brunell would have pulled).

 

griffin had elite QB numbers in 2012, as a passer.  to ignore those makes you look bogus. 

[ncr2h]

so throwing for 4 TDs in two separate games constitutes a game manager?  8 games with a 100+ QB rating?  6 games with a comp % of over 70 (and these werent just baby short passes like something campbell/brunell would have pulled).

 

griffin had elite QB numbers in 2012, as a passer.  to ignore those makes you look bogus. 

Cmon dude.  He had 393 attempts for the entire season.  Are you serious with this?  He game managed, and did a hell of a job doing so.  When we needed wins, we cranked up Alfred Morris, and toned down RG3's role as a passer in our offense.

[Taylor703]

So let me get this straight, it's perfectly fine that Brees was terrible because he won a game where he threw 38+ passes? Do you not realize how stupid this is? Instead of making up some bull**** formula that supports your agenda you could've saved everyone a bunch of time and just said you don't like RGIII.

[Garcon More Wine]

Cmon dude.  He had 393 attempts for the entire season.  Are you serious with this?  He game managed, and did a hell of a job doing so.  When we needed wins, we cranked up Alfred Morris, and toned down RG3's role as a passer in our offense.

 

lol, game managers dont throw 4 TDs in a game, let alone twice.  the games where griffin just took over with his arm, he was making monster plays.  look at the eagles game, he threw the ball 15 times.  14/15 for 200 yards and 4 TDs.  and our defense held them so we had no need to throw. 

 

youre somehow penalizing griffin for not throwing ENOUGH even when we win.  personally i dont want our QB throwing 40+ times a game.  it usually means bad things, somehow you think we need him throwing that much to be successful?

[Warhead36]

I think ncr's point is, come playoff time or when you're going up against elite competition, you need a QB who has the potential to win you the game with 35-40+ passing attempts. Right now, RG3 doesn't look like he can be that, while Cousins has, albeit small sample sizes for both.

 

Some of you guys are just way too sensitive reg. anything RG3.

[ncr2h]

I think ncr's point is, come playoff time or when you're going up against elite competition, you need a QB who has the potential to win you the game with 35-40+ passing attempts. Right now, RG3 doesn't look like he can be that, while Cousins has, albeit small sample sizes for both.

 

Some of you guys are just way too sensitive reg. anything RG3.

You summarized my point succinctly and accurately.

[Garcon More Wine]

I think ncr's point is, come playoff time or when you're going up against elite competition, you need a QB who has the potential to win you the game with 35-40+ passing attempts. Right now, RG3 doesn't look like he can be that, while Cousins has, albeit small sample sizes for both.

 

Some of you guys are just way too sensitive reg. anything RG3.

 

i know i feel a little bit of RGIII is my guy, but i have no delusions about how poor he played this year (which i think is 90% injury related, for the first half of the season he couldnt even plant on his back foot, and i think after that its just been downhill in terms of trying a new offensive game plan each week, and with the way the D/ST plays, he wasnt gonna win any low scoring affairs).  however, im more baffled at what you guys are seeing out of cousins.  i see rex grossman right now: nice passes down the field, and a penchant for turnovers.  all the excuses you wanna give, thats fine, at the end of the day, his numbers are grossman esque.  maybe he'll grow out of it, maybe he wont, who knows.

 

i dont think we'll find out while hes in a skins uniform tho.

[The Robert Griffin Experience]

Essentially, Atlanta Skins Fan is arguing that RGIII's efficiency will not hold with increased volume, or without having the run game to take pressure off Griffin. This is in itself not a bad question to ask, the the problem is that ASF uses Griffin's general lack of early career passing volume (which is compounded by the fact that 4 of Griffin's 5 most prolific games in terms of passing attempts came in the first 5 weeks after his return from the ACL injury) as a marker for his future upside in terms of being able to win games purely with his arm. Essentially, he takes a highly limited, subjective data point with tons of external variables affecting it, imposes his own preconceived analysis on it, and asks us all to accept it due to the sheer amount of data compiled.

 

You cannot extrapolate anything about RGIII's upside from the data ASF presents (without an initial bias that leads one to create arbitary statistical brackets to prove said bias - why is X amount of passes meaningful? Why is X amount of passes in the first 2 seasons meaningful), nothing at all. However, if you look at the totality of the data, we see a quarterback who has been significantly inhibited by multiple factors - injury, talent, and probably most critically, a toxic relationship with the men in charge of his development, and is still a statistically average quarterback despite it all, which is far from abnormal for 2nd year QBs. Essentially, it argues that just because Beck, Ramsey and a bunch of terrible prospects didn't do a given thing,and therefore they will never become prolific, Griffin is the exact same level as them in terms of a prospect, and thus will never become a great passer. It begs its own question.

 

And it's certainly true that Griffin wasn't asked to pass at a prolific level. One might expect that a rookie quarterback who runs a 4.3 would have more success passing  25-30 times, running 5-10 times, and making it easier for the RB to gain chunk yards than passing 40-50 times. The issue is that our coach was interested more in his job security than the future, and was content to win more and develop his QB less. That is the primary pitfall of the coach/GM combo, but that's not the scope of this post.

 

The critical, and ultimately fatal issue with Atlanta Skins Fan analysis in general in regards to quarterbacks is that it essentially ignores actually scouting a given prospect. RGIII clearly differs as a prospect from John Beck - RGIII in college had elite accuracy to all areas of the field, including truly transcendent deep accuracy, top-tier arm strength, a quick release, solid if unconventional mechanics (he rarely steps into throws, but his weight transfer and throwing platforms were excellent until this year) solid awareness given his spread background, and by the draft had clearly improved his fundamentals especially behind center. While stats can tell a lot of the story, the performance of the offense that generates those stats is affected by multiple variables, and many of those variables worked against Griffin. A pure sabremetrics approach can work in baseball and to a lesser extent, basketball, but it struggles in football because of these variables. At that point, one must evaluate the prospect in regards to their skillset and talent and not whether they have some statistical box ticked.

 

 And ultimately, a good statistician throws out a model that produces absurd results. Any model that ranks Griffin's potential with people like Beck and Ramsey must be thrown out, because the result is prima facie absurd.

[NewCliche21]

 

(2) RG3 has only 1 win with 35+ in his first 2 years.  This makes him a LIKELY BUST.  He goes in the same bucket as Geno Smith, Tim Tebow, Patrick Ramsey, JP Losman, etc.  There are very few actual franchise QBs, if any, who only passed the 38+ metric 1 time.  Brunell and Trent Green have valid excuses.  Actual elite passers have 3+ 38 pass wins in their first two seasons.  RG3 barely has 3 wins with 30+ passes (he's 3-11 in games where we ask him to throw a mere 30 times).

 

 

What, pray tell, are those excuses for Brunell and Green?  Because they don't fit within your "metric" that you've admitted is just to call RGIII a bust?

 

Here's how BS your stats are:  Did you notice that the two exceptions are WHITE?  This obviously means that you're racist.  I mean, 100% of those exceptions are white.   I'm not going to look at any other possible factor as to why those two are the exceptions because I clearly have an agenda that is to slander your name.  But only because you're a racist.

 

That's a simplified version of how ridiculous you sound.

 

You don't ask why there are 37+ passes.  You don't ask what any other variables are.  You simply start with an answer and then find a way to make the numbers work for you.  I admire your consistency and the work that you put into it, I really do.  However, your bias is not only a possibility, it's a confirmed fact.  You could get away with pushing the boundaries with such a random statistic if you had a history of being neutral, but you're absolutely destroying those boundaries with a history of disdain towards RGIII.

 

Sorry that you feel that way.  I absolutely can't wait to see you eat crow next year.  What's most unfortunate, though, is that you're just another person claiming to be a Redskins fan when you'd rather be right than see a Redskin do well.  That's the worst kind of fan.

 

Oh, and:

Holy ****, RGExperience, that may be the best post I've ever seen on this board.  Literally ever.  Not quoting it because that's against the rules, but every single part of that was just amazing.

[Newera]

Not only has RG3 accuracy decreased by 5% this season, he has also been throwing a LOT of screens.

 

Rg3 only threw for over 30 attempts 4 times all of last season.  

 

He has only exceeded a YPC average over 8.0 three times all season.  Because RG3 has been asked to pass more this year, his passing abilities have decreased.

 

For comparison, Kirk Cousins had YPC of 8.9 in his first start, and 8.5 in his second start.  

 

Kirk Threw for over 35 attempts in both starts, and threw for 45 attempts against Atlanta! While also completing 64% and a YPC of 8.5 

 

Jon Gruden said as such in the San Fran game.  He mostly threw bubbles and screens.  Not a lot of down field progression throws.  Could be because San Fran's defense is so good.  But also because it's not Griff's strength right now.  His success has been more contingent on the running game first.  Arm second.  

[CrypticVillain]

I think ncr's point is, come playoff time or when you're going up against elite competition, you need a QB who has the potential to win you the game with 35-40+ passing attempts. Right now, RG3 doesn't look like he can be that, while Cousins has, albeit small sample sizes for both.

 

Some of you guys are just way too sensitive reg. anything RG3.

 

 

You summarized my point succinctly and accurately.

lol How does this even make any sense. And it's not that people are sensitive of RG3, well certainly I am not, but if you are going to criticize him, can you at least have some type of reasonable logic behind it. 

 

Last year in the playoffs, 9 quarterbacks through 38 or more passes. Only 2 of them won the game. And Matt Schaub won a game and lost a game in the playoffs when throwing 38 or more passes.

[Rakpwned427]

I think ncr's point is, come playoff time or when you're going up against elite competition, you need a QB who has the potential to win you the game with 35-40+ passing attempts. Right now, RG3 doesn't look like he can be that, while Cousins has, albeit small sample sizes for both.

Some of you guys are just way too sensitive reg. anything RG3.

I'm not on either side here (RG3 or Cousins). I just think this system is stupid and meaningless.