Why John Beck is Likely to Win the Job

[Pelado]

I just looked back at my QB grades for Grossman (Steelers, Ravens) and Beck (Colts, Ravens).

Didn't Grossman play against the Colts, too?

Grossman vs. Backups:

Colts

5 plays, 21 yards, punt

4 plays, 9 yards, punt

4 plays, 64 yards, INT

5 plays, 19 yards, punt

3 punts and an INT? Yeah, I guess he didn't really play against the Colts.

[Oldfan]

.

Summing up:

There is an interaction involved in this decision. A scheme that fits will allow the QB to play closer to his full potential. A QB who fits will allow the scheme to produce closer to its full potential.

Most impartial observers see this preseason competition as very close. Both QBs have played well. So, neither will win or lose the job based on their performances in preseason.

The Shanahans already had an evaluation of both QBs going in based on talent and scheme fit. That evaluation almost certainly gave Beck a big edge.

The only thing Rex has going for him is an experience edge. It’s not very likely that that will be enough for him to get the call.

[skins2victory]

-I really don’t know why everyone is saying that Rex is not a mobile QB. I have seen plenty of occasions this preseason where Rex has been mobile and illusive. I think a lot of people get this idea because he put on a few pounds. He still moves around just fine, if anything the extra pounds might make him more of a load to take down. I don’t know the stats of hand, but after watching all the games this preseason, my guess would be that Beck has been sacked more times.

[s0crates]

You don't have to force any play if it isn't there. Joe Montana said some of his great plays were often throwaways. The quarterback is responsible for the management of the offense, not a covered wide receiver.

Perhaps you are right that the throwaway was a better option, because it often is, however I do not think that was the case on this play. We had a lengthy discussion about that play in another thread, and I will not rehash the whole thing here, but I will sum up. Beck had three (or four) options on that play.

1) Stallworth, in single coverage, no safety on top.

2) Tight end underneath, who was triple covered.

3) Scramble, standing in your own endzone with a defender closing in for the safety.

4) Throw away.

I think that the right read on the play was the one Beck made. It could have been a better throw (perhaps to the outside shoulder), although the ball did travel 60+ yards in the air, and Beck did have a defender in his face, so it is hard to really fault him for the inaccuracy. It certainly could have been a better effort by the WR. Regardless of all that, I am sure Beck made the right read there.

Also, if Beck does not take that shot he looks a lot worse for throwing it away. People are already calling him "Admiral checkdown" and accusing him of not taking shots. Can you imagine their response if he did not throw to Stallworth on that play?

Anyway, I think you usually throw to your #1 WR in single coverage with no safety help. That is a situation where you expect your WR to make a play on the ball. One final thing, only very rarely will you see a receiver who is not covered, because only very rarely is somebody what you would call wide open in the NFL. More often than not, you are looking for mismatches.

---------- Post added August-30th-2011 at 02:16 AM ----------

Atlanta Skins Fan -- the problem with your biased numbers is that you are taking a sample size of 3 preseason games where the QBs have gotten a total of 22 drives, all the while ignoring practices altogether.

There are a lot of problems with his numbers, ignoring practices is the least of these.

---------- Post added August-30th-2011 at 02:30 AM ----------

I just looked back at my QB grades for Grossman (Steelers, Ravens) and Beck (Colts, Ravens). It's very stark as I see it (grading only the QB performance in plays).

Wait, are you saying you omitted Rex's performance against Indy? Hmm. I suspect bias.

Let's read on:

Passes Per Drive: Grossman 4.6, Beck 3.0

What kind of BS stat is passes per drive? If a running back has a 50 yard run, is that a fault of the quarterback? If a QB throws a touchdown pass on his first play, would that be worse than him throwing 3 passes for 9 yards? I think not. Utterly useless stat.

What else do we have here?

Outstanding QB plays: Grossman 25, Beck 7

Terrible QB plays: Beck 9, Grossman 3

Seriously? These are not stats at all. What is this nonsense? Why doesn't the NFL keep track of outstanding QB plays? Hmm, I wonder. Maybe because it is entirely subjective and ludicrous. Give me a break.

Median air distance per catchable pass: Grossman 9, Beck 4

Not sure what the point of that is either. Putting aside the obvious problem with deciding what is and is not a "catchable pass," that stat does not tell us much. It might say something about a quarterback's tendency to take shots, but that is about it.

Why not look at real stats like yards per attempt, completion percentage, and quarterback rating? Could it be because Beck is better in all those areas?

Even if I'm biased . . .

Even if you are biased? You slay me man.

Even if a bear ***** in the woods, your manipulation of data is ridiculous.

[NoCalMike]

You don't have to force any play if it isn't there. Joe Montana said some of his great plays were often throwaways. The quarterback is responsible for the management of the offense, not a covered wide receiver.

Sometimes throwing it downfield way over everyone's head can be considered a version of throwing the ball away. I think being willing to throw the ball downfield sends a message to the defense. It keeps them on their toes and prevents them from always cheating up on the line and being over aggressive with the blitz.

Beck didn't look like he was "throwing it up for grabs" it looked like he made sure to over throw the ball significantly so either the WR would get to it or it would be an incompletion. That is a lot different than throwing the ball up in the air in the vicinity of the defender and crossing your fingers that the WR snatches the ball out of the air.

[Skinsinparadise]

I don't think you're likely to get any useful info out of Shanahan. It's probably a mistake to try. There's that curious sentence, "We ask quarterbacks to execute their offense." That probably means something to Shanahan, but it's deeply coded. I could tell you what I think that means, but why bother? It was intended to be truthful while revealing nothing.

Agree, I was just having fun off of your thread actually where you say Shanny is playing Jedi tricks where in your mind the answer is obvious: Grossman. IMO you find code that indicates he's leaning Beck. What the true answer is you got me. The execute the offense line takes me back to McNabb, that was one of the raps on him, that he didn't execute it and he improvised too much. Whether there is one QB in this mix who isn't executing the offense as properly as he'd like -- you got me, but maybe that's what he is saying.

[tiger187126]

I think six years is a reasonable estimate for Beck's service barring a serious injury.

I don't get why there's an assumption that a qb has the same drop off as a rb.

It's just silly. 30 year old qbs are signing $100 million contacts around the league, obviously it's a joke to assume that 30 means you're done at qb.

[Oldfan]

Agree, I was just having fun off of your thread actually where you say Shanny is playing Jedi tricks where in your mind the answer is obvious: Grossman. IMO you find code that indicates he's leaning Beck. What the true answer is you got me. The execute the offense line takes me back to McNabb, that was one of the raps on him, that he didn't execute it and he improvised too much. Whether there is one QB in this mix who isn't executing the offense as properly as he'd like -- you got me, but maybe that's what he is saying.

Mike can be deceptive, but not everything he says is intended to be deceptive. The most obvious interpretation of:

"We ask quarterbacks to execute their offense."

...is that he wants QBs to stick to the script and not ad lib. I doubt that Rex or John do that. Donovan most likely did.

[Skinsinparadise]

Mike can be deceptive, but not everything he says is intended to be deceptive. The most obvious interpretation of:

"We ask quarterbacks to execute their offense."

...is that he wants QBs to stick to the script and not ad lib. I doubt that Rex or John do that. Donovan most likely did.

I go along with that. As for getting specific: for those that say Grossman has the stronger arm, Cooley said yesterday Beck has the stronger arm. For those that negate Beck being faster -- Shanny has said multiple times Beck is faster including yesterday. As for the work ethic/preparation drill, Shanny made a big case about that in the Spring, he likes the QB to be in first in the morning, last one to leave. We have Gaffney and Peter King citing Beck specifically for his preparation. Chris Russell, the 980 beat reporter said Grossman is among the first ones to leave, Beck tends to stay late. Granted though work ethic is an amorphous quality that's tough to decipher, granted its the preseason, maybe Grossman feels he has such a command of the offense that he doesn't need extra practice. But since we are all flinging stuff out there, what the heck.

[GWinSkins83]

I go along with that. As for getting specific: for those that say Grossman has the stronger arm, Cooley said yesterday Beck has the stronger arm. For those that negate Beck being faster -- Shanny has said multiple times Beck is faster including yesterday. As for the work ethic/preparation drill, Shanny made a big case about that in the Spring, he likes the QB to be in first in the morning, last one to leave. We have Gaffney and Peter King citing Beck specifically for his preparation. Chris Russell, the 980 beat reporter said Grossman is among the first ones to leave, Beck tends to stay late. Granted though work ethic is an amorphous quality that's tough to decipher, granted its the preseason, maybe Grossman feels he has such a command of the offense that he doesn't need extra practice. But since we are all flinging stuff out there, what the heck.

I bet any amount of money that all the great QBs in this league is the first one in and last one to leave. I think it is as important as anything. For one they do have film of the Giants right now and I can tell you with Beck and not Grossman doing that Beck would know the Giants defense more. Thats will go a long way in my book. He will be better prepared against defenses than Grossman would. You just can't expect the Coach to tell you whats going on with the defense. Thats what a QB is suppose to be a coach on the field. I think Beck is showing the coach that he dont just want to be good in a system but he wants to be able to beat a defense.

[Oldfan]

I go along with that. As for getting specific: for those that say Grossman has the stronger arm, Cooley said yesterday Beck has the stronger arm. For those that negate Beck being faster -- Shanny has said multiple times Beck is faster including yesterday. As for the work ethic/preparation drill, Shanny made a big case about that in the Spring, he likes the QB to be in first in the morning, last one to leave. We have Gaffney and Peter King citing Beck specifically for his preparation. Chris Russell, the 980 beat reporter said Grossman is among the first ones to leave, Beck tends to stay late. Granted though work ethic is an amorphous quality that's tough to decipher, granted its the preseason, maybe Grossman feels he has such a command of the offense that he doesn't need extra practice. But since we are all flinging stuff out there, what the heck.

As you know, I think that the rah rah stuff in the huddle is completely worthless. It has nothing to do with leadership. But, in John Beck's shoes, I would give you rah rah stuff in the huddle -- because the coaches might like that. It can't hurt and there are millions of dollars on the line.

Beck may be manufacturing the persona that people hope to see from a QB. If so, more power to him.

[Skinsinparadise]

I bet any amount of money that all the great QBs in this league is the first one in and last one to leave. I think it is as important as anything. For one they do have film of the Giants right now and I can tell you with Beck and not Grossman doing that Beck would know the Giants defense more. Thats will go a long way in my book. He will be better prepared against defenses than Grossman would. You just can't expect the Coach to tell you whats going on with the defense. Thats what a QB is suppose to be a coach on the field. I think Beck is showing the coach that he dont just want to be good in a system but he wants to be able to beat a defense.

Agree, that there is a lot that goes into preparation thus QB's that put in more time and study should have an advantage. I don't treat any media guy for the most part to be a football expert so its not as if i take Chris Russell's word as the be all and end all. But he's reporting from the park all day long so at the very least he can see who's leaving and who stays. Chris is one of the only media guys by the way that likes Grossman more as the starter. But he's pointed out twice that its glaring to see Beck often staying late and Grossman often taking off. You add that to Beck traveling the country to practice with the WRs during the off season, printing them copies of the play book. Gaffney pointing out specifically about Beck's preparation -- and if you think about it most of these players understand that the press is fishing for comparisons when they ask about the Qbs. And Peter King if you watch his excerpt from Redskins camp (and we know he almost had to talk to Shanny) specifically highlight Beck's work ethic as one of the things that impresses him.

Am trying to find it but I recall distinctly shanny saying in the off season that he looks for a QB that is a preparation nut, first guy to come in last guy to leave -- and going back to Chris Russell he flat out said that its tough for him not to notice Beck versus Grossman on this issue and he thinks it might hurt Grossman --- when I read about Grossman his work ethic is not something that's highlighted, could be I missed it though. Heck I even remember articles saying Grossman showed up to camp over weight, which I personally thought was over the top, maybe he was 5 pounds heavier. But yeah assuming everything else is equal it makes me think it could be the tipping point. Having said all that, if one player outperforms the other on the field am sure it all washes away if its a factor.

And to play devil's advocate, things can be blown up easily and misinterpreted, you can just say that Beck needs catching up work versus Grossman who has better knowledge of the offense, also its preseason. But to your point, yeah from what I read guys like Peyton Manning are preparation hounds.

---------- Post added August-30th-2011 at 08:32 AM ----------

As you know, I think that the rah rah stuff in the huddle is completely worthless. It has nothing to do with leadership. But, in John Beck's shoes, I would give you rah rah stuff in the huddle -- because the coaches might like that. It can't hurt and there are millions of dollars on the line.

Beck may be manufacturing the persona that people hope to see from a QB. If so, more power to him.

I did in another post mention Beck as the more fired up persona than Grossman as an intangible -- but agree that's more of a personality trait and I am with you, you can be a cool cat like Montana and be successful or more of a firebrand like Brees and be successful. Doesn't matter. But the post that you are directly responding to is about work ethic and preparation. Granted with limited information, I got the vibe that Beck is more the preparation hound of the two of them. And it struck me that one of his players stressed it -- i took that as there was a productive result from Beck's preparation. And if his preparation was run of the mill why would Gaffney bother commenting on it? Gaffney of all guys should be able to contrast with Grossman having played with him with the Gators. Gaffney's comments alone wouldn't get a rise out of me but in combination with everything else it gets my attention a LITTLE. So again its not an overriding factor. Obviously, play on the field is the operative thing.

I'd ignore this factor normally because its an amorphous quality, if I didn't recall Shanny making such a big deal about it at one point, which I took at the time as a shot at McNabb who from what I read wasn't a stay late preparation guy.

[darrelgreenie]

Didn't Grossman play against the Colts, too? ......3 punts and an INT? Yeah, I guess he didn't really play against the Colts.

But obviously those stats don't matter when they don't support your conclusion.

---------- Post added August-30th-2011 at 08:49 AM ----------

The only thing Rex has going for him is an experience edge.

Well experience and Rex has more super terrific plays.

[KDawg]

Didn't Grossman play against the Colts, too?

3 punts and an INT? Yeah, I guess he didn't really play against the Colts.

This has been pointed out to ASF on more than one occasion. ASF is a stat cherry picker, and can throw out some statistics that aren't even statistics at all. Almost every stat he posts is cherry picked in some way. Don't get too upset about it, its the way of ASF.

[Stadium-Armory]

I also think that the Shannahans are so tainted from the Mc5 no-arm-band, wrong formations, ad-lib, experiment, that they will over correct and go "total system" this year. Rex knows the system the best.

Also, with respect to the intangibles: my perception is that Rex doesn't have to manufacture anything. He's got a QB persona. Who knows, I'm not in the huddle, but he seems like a dude that guys naturally follow. He's the rex cannon for pete's sake.

[Pelado]

This has been pointed out to ASF on more than one occasion. ASF is a stat cherry picker, and can throw out some statistics that aren't even statistics at all. Almost every stat he posts is cherry picked in some way. Don't get too upset about it, its the way of ASF.

I'm not upset. I'm just trying to have as much fun with ASF's omissions as ASF has when he intentionally omits them.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

The Israeli-Palestinian question will be settled before we decide which castoff QB to start.

[ncr2h]

This has been pointed out to ASF on more than one occasion. ASF is a stat cherry picker, and can throw out some statistics that aren't even statistics at all. Almost every stat he posts is cherry picked in some way. Don't get too upset about it, its the way of ASF.

A Grossman supporter's view of the Colts game -

Grossman didn't play that badly against the Colts. From my memory, he repeatedly made nice deep throws over the middle. He had some bad luck with drops and penalties negating some of his better plays. He threw an interception.

It certainly wasn't his best game. But there's not much reason, IMO, for Beck supporters to keep bringing this game up like it was an abysmal performance. Rex had a few drives, we didn't score any points, but there's not much to indicate that he's not a good quarterback based on that game.

EDIT: And I don't think ASF not including this game, for whatever reason, skews his stats. Rex played 4 series' against the Colts. He made a couple of bad plays at most (he had several nice plays as well). I don't think that's suddenly going to tilt his perception toward Beck.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

Wait, are you saying you omitted Rex's performance against Indy? Hmm. I suspect bias.

You're right, but it's a different kind of bias than you assume. I didn't even watch Grossman's performance against Indy. I didn't watch any of the 2nd / 3rd teams play, in any of the games, aside from Beck's two possessions at the beginning of the second half of the Ravens game.

I don't believe that useful info comes from watching 2nd and 3rd teams play in preseason. I've been burned too many times in the past - Osaka / Spurrier offense, McCants, Colt Brennan, Rob Jackson, Robert Henson. I'm sure that some useful info must come out of the play by backups, but it's almost impossible to know with any confidence whether particular play means anything.

This is one reason that I'm pretty confident that Beck's performance looks better than it is. In his only two opportunities against a legit NFL starting defense playing hard (Ravens), he looked very poor. So, I'm inclined to think that the better performances may actually have Colt Brennan effects. I can't prove that, and the sample size against the Ravens is small.

You can take pot-shots at my methods all you want. I expect it. People are correct that I use selective stats. They view this as a defect, and I view this as the point of the exercise. I am testing various ideas relating to short sample sizes and selective stats as predictors. Some of these have far more grounding than people suspect.

As an example, I made up the stat "passes per drive." I'm testing this as a short-sample predictor of QB quality. I'm sure it sounds like B.S. to most people, but it's actually based on an observation from my college QB projection model: the number of QB attempts per season matters. Specifically, a dominant college QB (one more likely to become an NFL franchise QB) will tend to carry his offense with a high number of attempts, such as 400 or more for the season. So, the corollary that I'm testing is that this apparent fact will cause "passes per drive" for that QB to be relatively high, and that this difference will carry through to NFL QBs. QBs with a high number of passes per drive will tend to succeed more than QBs with few passes per drive (such as under 2.5).

Jason Campbell is an example of a college QB whose stats were inflated by having a low number of attempts. The pass/run ratio was relatively low. This is what I'm seeing in Beck's stats. It's obvious to me that Beck is being protected by the playcalling. Now, this doesn't mean that Beck is bad. Rather, it says that he is being brought along gently by the Shanahans, compared to Grossman. This difference tells me that the Shanahans aren't expecting to start Beck on Game 1.

Beck clearly has upside. He's also a guy who did very well in my original college QB model (but not the sophomore model). I've been curious about interpreting the differences between those projections. My working theory is that QBs who pass the sophomore model are "natural elite QBs," while those who pass the original model, while failing the sophomore model, are "learning QBs." Some of these "learning QBs" have made it in the NFL, while many have busted. They may need more time and more of a perfect system fit to succeed.

So far, Grossman and Beck are playing to my expectations. I'm rooting for both of them, but in different ways. People on ES don't understand this. If Beck were to be awful, that would actually be a bad indicator for my original model. The most accurate projection would have both QBs playing well, but Grossman playing at an elite level sooner than Beck. Not simply because of "time in system" but rather because of more elite talent. Then you should see Beck gradually closing the gap because he's a worker and can learn.

These comments about Beck staying late at the park, and Grossman leaving early, are playing straight to the stereotypes of the models. The "learner" must put in extra work in order to succeed. The "natural" must be able to make plays that only [player name] can make.

Each type will have its pitfalls. The "natural" will tend to lean on talent and be overconfident, sometimes making astounding throws, sometimes making stupid mistakes. The "learner" will gradually start winning games before being acknowledged as a good QB. Years into play, the "learner" will still be improving. The model for the "learner" is Tom Brady.

I'm rooting for both these guys, just in different ways. That's my bias.

[Oldfan]

I'm not upset. I'm just trying to have as much fun with ASF's omissions as ASF has when he intentionally omits them.

ASF is too bright to believe half of the stuff he offers. He claims to own his own business, but my bet is that he's incarcerated somewhere, convicted of fraud, probably a Ponzi scheme.

I enjoy his posts.

[MartinC]

This is what I'm seeing in Beck's stats. It's obvious to me that Beck is being protected by the playcalling. Now, this doesn't mean that Beck is bad. Rather, it says that he is being brought along gently by the Shanahans, compared to Grossman. This difference tells me that the Shanahans aren't expecting to start Beck on Game 1.

Then why were the first 2 pass plays Beck had against the Ravens first team defense called shots - fade to Armstrong and deep corner route to Davis? Thats not exactly keeping the training wheels on is it?

The problem with evaluating Beck based on stats this offseason is the stupidly small sample size - 27 passes.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

Then why were the first 2 pass plays Beck had against the Ravens first team defense called shots - fade to Armstrong and deep corner route to Davis? Thats not exactly keeping the training wheels on is it?

The playcalling for Beck has seemed very scripted. Against the Colts, a focus on short passing - screens, passes to RBs. Against the Ravens, they added deep flies of various differences, then focused on passes in the 5 - 10 yard range, especially middle of the field. Also they seemed resistant to letting Beck pass from the gun (where he's been strong), and had him take snaps from center most of the time against the Ravens. So dropback passing was a focus against the Ravens.

This sort of regimented development (a section of the playbook at a time) is a classic teaching paradigm.

Meanwhile, they are testing Grossman with a much harder curriculum, such as 2-minute drill with no huddle, and a lot of intermediate passing.

Beck is being developed, while Grossman is being prepared to start against the Giants. To my eyes.

[KDawg]

He made a couple of bad plays at most (he had several nice plays as well). I.

This, in a nutshell, is the problem with Grossman. Beck also has some issues. I believe he holds the ball entirely too long, among other things.

[RandyHolt]

I think the deep passes by Beck were to stretch the book on how to beat Beck. Its obvious we wanted to show DC"s he can go deep. I think its an exercise in futility, if he had his short game accuracy and a deep ball, he wouldnt be obstensibly a 30 year old rookie.

I expect teams will stack the box and go tight man and force him to beat teams going medium/deep.

[MartinC]

The playcalling for Beck has seemed very scripted. Against the Colts, a focus on short passing - screens, passes to RBs. Against the Ravens, they added deep flies of various differences, then focused on passes in the 5 - 10 yard range, especially middle of the field. Also they seemed resistant to letting Beck pass from the gun (where he's been strong), and had him take snaps from center most of the time against the Ravens. So dropback passing was a focus against the Ravens.

This sort of regimented development (a section of the playbook at a time) is a classic teaching paradigm.

Meanwhile, they are testing Grossman with a much harder curriculum, such as 2-minute drill with no huddle, and a lot of intermediate passing.

Beck is being developed, while Grossman is being prepared to start against the Giants. To my eyes.

I think you might be right re Beck being asked to do specific things as part of a development and evaluation process, I certainly think those called shots against the Raven were for evaluation purposes. I think with Rex quite a bit is just situational. He was in for the 2 minute drill versus the Ravens for example rather than Beck and the heavy dose of intermediate passes - especially between the numbers - is just Rex doing what Rex does.

I dont think you can read anything into the above in terms of who gets the start personally.

---------- Post added August-30th-2011 at 10:38 AM ----------

I expect teams will stack the box and go tight man and force him to beat teams going medium/deep.

I hope they do - I have a good feeling about Becks and our receivers ability to beat tight man with a single high safety.