Why John Beck is Likely to Win the Job

[TheRookie]

Specifically which plays were these? And did he have a clear throwing lane?

I knew you were gonna ask this. I'll try to look one up, just a huge pain with my connection at the moment.

I couldn't disagree more. There's evidence of numerous QB's that can run this scheme or similar schemes at an extremely high level despite lacking mobility, see P. Manning, M Schaub.

I can't think of a QB who's succeeded in this system that can't beat teams from the pocket.

I look at it this way to be a good QB in the NFL you need to able to beat teams from the pocket, you won't succeed if you can't. Adding mobility to this is an added bonus, but you need to fulfill the baseline requirements to succeed.

This doesn't mean that Beck can't fulfill that baseline requirement as a pocket-passer, but he hasn't yet in my opinion.

I don't think we're disagreeing here. I was just saying that maybe we've been focusing so much on the rollouts with Beck, that maybe we're talking about him like a one-trick pony and that maybe he can get it done from the pocket. And, yes, I agree he hasn't "proven" he can do it from the pocket since, at the end of the day, we haven't seen him play much. I just thought it was worth pointing out that he may be able to get it done and that defending him may not be as simple as just forcing him to work between the tackles. For that matter, it might be that Rex has enough mobility "within" the pocket to overcome his inability to get outside of it (ala Manning) and that's fine. I just felt like some of the discussion was taking place under the assumption that Beck would be lost if he wasn't rolled out on a bootleg and thought it was fair to consider that he might not be.

[Oldfan]

a year running the scout team offense and a shortened off-season is in your opinion enough time to learn everything that can be learned off the field? I'd have to disagree.

Okay, we disagree.

A couple of points, 1.) I don't remember enough about the Broncos that year to tell you how often they ran PA-bootlegs, but looking through their highlights briefly I've consistently found footage of Cutler making plays from inside the pocket, much more so than him outside of the pocket, so you're not going to beat Jay by letting him throw from the pocket.

Okay, I can't convince you that a mobile QB is an advantage in this scheme.

2.) If I told you manning never gets sacked either, or teams have a hard time moving him from the pocket, you'll just credit his o-line. Why can't the same be said for Cutler?

You can say that if you like, but you would have to try to explain why the same Broncos O-line allowed many more sacks after Cutler and Shanahan left Denver. As I recall Clady's sacks against rose from 1.5 in his rookie season to 8.5 the next.

[Mahons21]

Rex did have more possessions against the Ravens starters, but he did not have more drives. His first three possessions yielded a total of 10 plays and 18 yards. His fourth possession went 81 yards for a TD. Beck's first possession went 70 yards for a TD, his second was a 3 and out due to his poor throw to Moss.

Drives are performed by a team, the point is to isolate the QB's impact on the drive. Citing drive statistics fails to do so. All your showing is that the Redskins rushing attack happened to perform better with Beck in the game.

Not true. Beck's first TD against the Ravens was pass, pass, run - 67% passes.

Your right, I was using someone else's numbers they compiled which apparently were incorrect. Though much like Grossman's 2 minute drill needs to be taken with a grain of salt, so does a 3 play drive with a 37 yd TD run.

[Pelado]

Drives are performed by a team, the point is to isolate the QB's impact on the drive. Citing drive statistics fails to do so. All your showing is that the Redskins rushing attack happened to perform better with Beck in the game.

Your right, I was using someone else's numbers they compiled which apparently were incorrect. Though much like Grossman's 2 minute drill needs to be taken with a grain of salt, so does a 3 play drive with a 37 yd TD run.

The point that I made earlier is that the offense has performed better with Beck in, not that Beck is a better QB. You seem to finally agree with me.

[darrelgreenie]

Whatever the effect of having a threat on that boot of a mobile QB is it slows down the backside pursuit and makes your stretch run more effective by giving more room for the cutback. Conversely if the backside backer and DE do crash down in pursuit to handle that run that's when you can dial up the play action boot to great effect.

You beat me to it; well said.

Beck against the Colts was a good illistration of the effect in action.

[Skinsinparadise]

The idea that defenses will or won't need to account for John Beck for running -- that obviously will play out one way or another, if Becks shows at the beginning of the season that you get burned by his speed which I think will happen, you are going to want to IMO at times leave a safety or LB to spy. Plus the threat of the mobile QB, can help keep a team off balance in particular with this offense because it makes the bootleg MORE deadly. And that in turn should help the stretch run by forcing the defense to play guessing games and overcompensating in ways that can be exploited. Also you are more likely to wear down the defense by making them chase from side to side at a greater pace.

Yeah Grossman obviously can run the bootleg but if he doesn't move that quickly or isn't a threat to run if a passing lane isn't open, the defense IMO is under less pressure versus a quick QB because they don't have to scurry as furiously from side to side. It's easier for them to adjust to offense's misdirection. And that fact that Grossman isn't a threat to run for yards, takes away one of the main bonuses as how the stretch play sets up the bootleg.

[Oldfan]

I really don't understand some of the arguments against Beck.

Some of the things I've read in this thread are contrary to the on field actuality to such a degree that its made the Beck/Rex discussion empty(to a degree).

I think an honest evaluation of their skillset leads to your conclusion: Beck is a better fit.

But, I would go further and say that Beck is flat out more talented and his skillset is better fit for any offense.

The question remain are they willing to forgo experience for talent? I think the answer will be yes.

You're right. Debate is pointless. If you can compare the skillsets, there should be no need for debate. If you can't compare skillsets, there's no point.

Rex is a good #2. John Beck has the tools. The only questions one might have about him are those intangibles that can only be evaluated by starting him.

[ncr2h]

You beat me to it; well said.

Beck against the Colts was a good illistration of the effect in action.

Why? Because we broke a big run on the 2nd play of the game (the first play being a run as well)? Maybe our running game is just better this year than last year's? Maybe we're breaking more long runs when Beck is in there because we call many more running plays when he's in?

[darrelgreenie]

I couldn't disagree more. There's evidence of numerous QB's that can run this scheme or similar schemes at an extremely high level despite lacking mobility, see P. Manning, M Schaub.

The only team that runs/ran a similar scheme are Houston and Titans (erstwhile).

This doesn't mean that Beck can't fulfill that baseline requirement as a pocket-passer, but he hasn't yet in my opinion.

And this is where we disagree.

If Beck couldn't fulfill the baseline reqs of a pocket-passer how do you account for his preseason production in relation to Rex?

[Mahons21]

Okay, I can't convince you that a mobile QB is an advantage in this scheme.

I think a mobile QB is an advantage in every scheme. I however think that a QB must first be able to fulfill baseline requirements as a pocket-passer, which is more or less my subjective eye test watching them from the pocket, so it must taken as fact. As I was saying though, I don't think a mobile QB is an advantage in any scheme, if they can't first fulfill the baseline requirements as a pocket passer.

I have no worries about Rex from the pocket. I haven't seen enough from Beck to instill confidence in me that he too can play from the pocket at a certain level.

You can say that if you like, but you would have to try to explain why the same Broncos O-line allowed many more sacks after Cutler and Shanahan left Denver. As I recall Clady's sacks against rose from 1.5 in his rookie season to 8.5 the next.

I don't know enough about the Broncos through that time, to truly debate this. Here are questions I would ask though. Was it the same line the following season? Did key players on the line miss time or play through significant injuries? What was the sack % rather than sack totals? Were their a significant amt of sacks that should be credited to the QB?

All of these factors could have had an impact as well as it being the first year for a QB in a new system which can lead to a lot of sacks.

[Skinsinparadise]

Rex is a good #2. John Beck has the tools. The only questions one might have about him are those intangibles that can only be evaluated by starting him.

As for some of the intangibles, A. Armstrong recently said Beck is more fired up and more of a cheerleader in the huddle, Grossman is more the cool cat who doesn't talk so much. According to Chris Russell who is around the team a lot notices Beck stays late, Grossman goes home early. Neither item is a definitive intangible though. Beck personality wise seems more type A.

[darrelgreenie]

Why? Because we broke a big run on the 2nd play of the game (the first play being a run as well)? Maybe our running game is just better this year than last year's? Maybe we're breaking more long runs when Beck is in there because we call many more running plays when he's in?

I'm not talking about the long runs.

I'm talking about the yards and 1st downs Beck gained on the boot-keep.

[Pelado]

Advantages for each QB as shown through 2011 preseason to date:

Throwing to the middle of the field from the pocket - Grossman

Throwing to the sidelines from the pocket - Beck

Throwing on the run - Beck

Running - Beck

[MartinC]

Why? Because we broke a big run on the 2nd play of the game (the first play being a run as well)? Maybe our running game is just better this year than last year's? Maybe we're breaking more long runs when Beck is in there because we call many more running plays when he's in?

Are you really arguing with the premise that the effect of a mobile QB is to either slow down backside pursuit or put you in a position to take advantage if the backside contain does pursue?

[Mahons21]

The only team that runs/ran a similar scheme are Houston and Titans (erstwhile).

You don't find Indy's system similar? It is based on the stretch/PA off the stretch from what I can tell.

And this is where we disagree.

If Beck couldn't fulfill the baseline reqs of a pocket-passer how do you account for his preseason production in relation to Rex?

Production is measuring everything they've done inside the pocket and outside, so that won't give us a very accurate gauge. We would have to look at production solely from drop-back passes and then we'd also have to factor in drops etc for either player. For example should Rex's gorgeous throw to Tana that gets dropped, get more credit than Beck's WR screen to Austin?

One play resulted in a TD, the other displayed a significantly higher degree of difficulty on the pass. If I saw those two plays on a stat line, I'd get a very different impression than if I saw them live.

I should also repeat this if you didn't catch it. My baseline requirements are basically me giving the QB an eye test from the pocket, so clearly they MUST be taken as 100% factual.

[dballer]

Rex has averaged significantly more yards through the air than Beck, so it can't be that he's stretching them with his arm.

Absolutely False. Beck is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt. Grossman 7.6 yards per attempt.

And to give Grossman credit his best game came against the Steelers, a very good defense.

But...that was when he knew Beck wasn't there to steal some of his thunder. The next two games he completed 15 of 27, 1 td, 1 int, 7.4 yard/attempt avg.

I don't really understand how people think it's not even a contest between Grossman and Beck. Beck has performed at LEAST as well as Rex. With less reps, less time in the system, less game experience. How is it that people just dismiss Beck without giving him a chance. Well people who aren't named Shanahan at least.

[Mahons21]

The point that I made earlier is that the offense has performed better with Beck in, not that Beck is a better QB. You seem to finally agree with me.

When that's your point in a thread that is debating which QB should win the starting job it comes across as evidence to support a QB, especially because it paints one QB in a better light than the other.

And if that is your point your sample size isn't nearly large enough, because as I've stated how do you know it isn't just dumb-luck that these rushes occurred when Beck was in the game?

[Pelado]

You don't find Indy's system similar? It is based on the stretch/PA off the stretch from what I can tell.

Production is measuring everything they've done inside the pocket and outside, so that won't give us a very accurate gauge. We would have to look at production solely from drop-back passes and then we'd also have to factor in drops etc for either player. For example should Rex's gorgeous throw to Tana that gets dropped, get more credit than Beck's WR screen to Austin?

One play resulted in a TD, the other displayed a significantly higher degree of difficulty on the pass. If I saw those two plays on a stat line, I'd get a very different impression than if I saw them live.

Why didn't you include in that comparison Grossman's incomplete pass to the Ravens defense just before the pass to Moss? You know, the one that could have/should have been picked off? Didn't that incompletion look different than Beck's incompletions?

[Mahons21]

Absolutely False. Beck is averaging 9.2 yards per attempt. Grossman 7.6 yards per attempt.

And to give Grossman credit his best game came against the Steelers, a very good defense.

But...that was when he knew Beck wasn't there to steal some of his thunder. The next two games he completed 15 of 27, 1 td, 1 int, 7.4 yard/attempt avg.

YPA are entirely different than yards through the air, ASF did a break-down of it in another thread. YPA includes YAC, a 75 yd screen would count for 75 yards. A 50 yd bomb that goes 45 yards through the air would only count as 50. Which do you think stretches the defense more?

[skinsfansince1988]

I think Beck is the starter, I also think Shanahan knows he is and listening to their answers, I think Beck and Grossman suspect that Beck is the starter. I want Beck to start, I think he is the better QB and has proven himself and could be our guy for the next 3-4 years and we can draft someone in 2012 or 2013 and develop them for a couple of years. plus we are going to be a run first offense with Hightower

[Mahons21]

Why didn't you include in that comparison Grossman's incomplete pass to the Ravens defense just before the pass to Moss? You know, the one that could have/should have been picked off? Didn't that incompletion look different than Beck's incompletions?

That's entirely irrelevant. The point is that stats/production don't paint a good picture. I gave an example by showing two plays in which either QB through from the pocket, with entirely different results.

[Pelado]

When that's your point in a thread that is debating which QB should win the starting job it comes across as evidence to support a QB, especially because it paints one QB in a better light than the other.

And if that is your point your sample size isn't nearly large enough, because as I've stated how do you know it isn't just dumb-luck that these rushes occurred when Beck was in the game?

If you need me to declare a point, then I guess my point would be to rebut those who are saying the offense seems to run smoother with Rex.

I acknowledge that this is a small sample size, but the arguments that some are making just are not supported by what we've seen in the preseason. Maybe their arguments are stemming from other sources (camp reports, prior seasons, making things up, etc.).

Oh, thanks for telling me things I don't already know.

[Oldfan]

YPA are entirely different than yards through the air, ASF did a break-down of it in another thread. YPA includes YAC, a 75 yd screen would count for 75 yards. A 50 yd bomb that goes 45 yards through the air would only count as 50. Which do you think stretches the defense more?

What did you mean by this statement?

Rex has averaged significantly more yards through the air than Beck, so it can't be that he's stretching them with his arm.

What averages are you talking about? Could you cite the stats?

[Mahons21]

What did you mean by this statement?

YPA is a measure of yards gained on every passing attempt. Yards through the air measures the distance the ball traveled from IIRC the LOS to the receiver.

What averages are you talking about? Could you cite that stats?

I believe it was ASF who put them in another thread, I'd rather ask him where they are then go digging.

[MartinC]

What did you mean by this statement?

What averages are you talking about? Could you cite that stats?

He is talking about the difference between YPA which includes yards gained by the receiver after the catch versus the pure distance the ball travelled in the air. The stats he is citing are those ASF charted after the Colts game when he christened Beck Admiral Checkdown because his passes were mainly short.

It's interesting ASF has not recalculated that stat after the Ravens game when Beck threw a number of deep balls. I suspect the stat no longer fits his desired result.