Why John Beck is Likely to Win the Job

[MartinC]

It's always been the same definition. Does the pass give the receiver a reasonable chance to catch the pass. Generally that's going to be at least one hand on the ball.

I just went back and looked at your original thread when you called Beck Admiral checkdown. In that you charted every pass good or bad complete or incomplete by both QBs to come up with the average length of pass in the air. Now it seems you have changed the definition to only include catchable passes.

[Pelado]

Wrong. See the end of my new thread OP from Sunday. Stats for Ravens game, which even include Becks throws against the second team:

When will you start including Rex's Colts game performance in your breakdowns? You know, the possessions that combined for three punts and a pick?

[Mahons21]

Over the course of a season? Maybe.

We're working with small sample sizes, so we take what we can get.

But, even if its is indicative of 'strecthing a team vertically' YTA is more about 'type' or 'style' of offense it doesn't speak to quality or efficiency or production.

I agree obviously P River /Big Ben are going to have higher through the air totals. However in this instance we're measuring two QB's in the same "type" of offense, with for the most part the same supporting cast, if one QB is consistently completing passes further down field, than it's logical to assume that this QB forces the defense to stretch out more so than a QB who is dumping the ball off (hypothetical not referring Beck and Grossman).

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

I just went back and looked at your original thread when you called Beck Admiral checkdown. In that you charted every pass good or bad complete or incomplete by both QBs to come up with the average length of pass in the air. Now it seems you have changed the definition to only include catchable passes.

This is just wrong. Kindly don't lob accusations if you don't know what you're talking about.

Original thread here. Scroll down to the grids for Beck and Grossman.

View the "Air" column highlighted in red. If a number is in the column, it's rated a catchable pass. If something else appears (N/A, GRD, Over, Left, Sack, etc.), then the play is excluded from the calculation. This means that Grossman isn't punished for spiking the ball, Beck isn't punished for grounding the ball under pressure, and Beck does not get credit for air-mailing uncatchable passes.

I applied the same system to the Ravens game. I haven't posted the grid because I don't have time to track down all the other fields in the grid. I just checked air and total distance and receiver.

[Pelado]

We're working with small sample sizes, so we take what we can get.

I agree obviously P Rivers /Big Ben are going to have higher through the air totals. However in this instance we're measuring two QB's in the same offense "type" of offense, with for the most part the same supporting cast, if one QB is consistently completing passes further down field, than it's logical to assume that this QB forces the defense to stretch out more so than a QB who is dumping the ball off (hypothetical not referring Beck v Grossman).

Assuming the samples from each QB are against relatively common opponents. So far, AFS has included Rex's stats from Steelers and the Ravens, but not the Colts. He included Beck's stats from the Colts and the Ravens, and he didn't play against the Steelers due to injury. With such a small sample size, shouldn't he at least be looking at the entire sample?

[tiger187126]

Or did you forget that despite not having a contract Grossman came majority if not all of the team organized practices?

And yes Rex is smart enough to make a business decision that works out best for him, clearly we should be chastising him for this, its not like his career is on the line every play.

i don't have to argue leadership with you, most players asked about it talk about beck being the better and more active leader.

but basically ASF (and you if we want to use the transitive property of defending posts on a message board) are pretending that grossman is the next mvp caliber QB to pop up out of nowhere at the age of 30 or older.

now when this began last year, it was that grossman "shredded" the cowboys and the giants (both losses iirc) and that he looks like a qb that is going to have all kinds of success.

now year one, we get shanny jr. and he wants to bring along his backup from his old team to help the transition. fine, sanders did the same thing with collins. but the sex cannon laughed at our offer and said he could get paid more elsewhere, i mean there is always a market for a starting qb in the nfl as long as the nfc west is still there. we said, here's the offer, call us when you're ready to come back to reality. he walked out and a week or two later he was back signing that contract.

now that they had the quarterback of their dreams in their hands at an incredible bargain for someone who obviously should be payed top 5 at his position, they go out and sign mcnabb. they give mcnabb the job without any hint of a competition and put up with some ****ty performances, all while sexy rexy is sitting on the bench. so they finally give him a crack in a two minute drill and he proceeds to get crushed, fumble the football, and seal the loss. not an uncommon thing for rex, regardless of how much you want to pump him up.

so they let him take 3 starts at the end of the season and he goes 1-2 with 7 tds and 7 turnovers. i mean that's real nfl production right there. you had teams gameplanning for a mobile deep thrower like mcnabb and then you switch him out for a pocket surgeon like rex and they should have fits with the newfound accuracy at the qb position.

so there was a lockout, and beck came forward and said he was the starter and he is going to do everything in his power to make sure his guys were ready. so he signed a multi year deal (iirc) and organized player workouts. he worked with guys like drew brees in the offseason to hone his skills and become better.

rex meanwhile showed up overweight and refused to sign a multi year contract because he wants to be a free agent next year. that's not a leader, that's a guy who's still looking to cash in.

[Oldfan]

We're working with small sample sizes, so we take what we can get.

I agree obviously P Rivers /Big Ben are going to have higher through the air totals. However in this instance we're measuring two QB's in the same offense "type" of offense, with for the most part the same supporting cast, if one QB is consistently completing passes further down field, than it's logical to assume that this QB forces the defense to stretch out more so than a QB who is dumping the ball off (hypothetical not referring Beck v Grossman).

Small sample size + subjectively determined stat = stats for dummies:ols:

[Conn]

i don't have to argue leadership with you, most players asked about it talk about beck being the better and more active leader.

Sources?

[MartinC]

To change tack here a little an observation - we have two QBs who have played at a high level this preseason and showed an ability to move the ball and execute our system. IMO neither has really separated to make this a clear cut decision - and not in a negative way. This is the best I can recall a Redskins offense looking better under either guy in preseason for a very long time. You can make a good case for either guy.

There is a tendency on ES to take a position or pick a guy in a two horse race and then close your mind to any counter argument and threads become just a back and forth of each side trying to shout down the other. It makes for boring threads and poor debate. I would start Beck but I can see the case for Rex - it also does not mean I think Rex is a bad QB and means I look for any small chink to pick Rex apart.

Whomever gets the start I hope we all get behind him and don't forget the other guy is one snap away from playing.

[Mahons21]

Small sample size + subjectively determined stat = stats for dummies:ols:

Sure if you're taking it as gospel or as a stat that shows which QB is playing better. I was debating with a poster which QB stretched the field more, I conceded Beck obviously stretches it from sideline to sideline, however as ASF's data shows Grossman stretches a team more vertically. It doesn't mean Rex is better, it doesn't mean much of anything other than Grossman, completes more downfield passes than Beck at this point.

These passes could lead to nothing, while Beck's underneath throws and feet lead to a TD. I'm not disputing that. All I'm saying is the stats show, and it's hard to not have seen how Grossman has been better at completing passes that traveled a further distance in the air.

[MartinC]

This is just wrong. Kindly don't lob accusations if you don't know what you're talking about.

Original thread here. Scroll down to the grids for Beck and Grossman.

View the "Air" column highlighted in red. If a number is in the column, it's rated a catchable pass. If something else appears (N/A, GRD, Over, Left, Sack, etc.), then the play is excluded from the calculation. This means that Grossman isn't punished for spiking the ball, Beck isn't punished for grounding the ball under pressure, and Beck does not get credit for air-mailing uncatchable passes.

I applied the same system to the Ravens game. I haven't posted the grid because I don't have time to track down all the other fields in the grid. I just checked air and total distance and receiver.

Apologies, I had thought that all passes in the game were in the column and were included in the calculation - I had not realized you had excluded passes you decided were uncatchable.

[Mahons21]

i don't have to argue leadership with you, most players asked about it talk about beck being the better and more active leader.

I'm not arguing who's the better leader w/ you, I have no idea, neither do you, and I like both the guys a lot. I am debating the light you tried to paint Grossman in, as this lazy guy who wants money, comparing him to Jenkins. Grossman signed a near vet min deal, and worked out with the team the entire off-season despite not having a contract, he's not the player you're making him about to be for some unknown reason.

[darrelgreenie]

We're working with small sample sizes, so we take what we can get.

You asked the question, I'm just answering and for me if the sample size is so small it meaningless to use them to glean overall tendencies.

Skillset? Yes.

It could have simply been a matter of taking what the defense was giving which resulted in successfully moving the offense.

I agree obviously P River /Big Ben are going to have higher through the air totals. However in this instance we're measuring two QB's in the same "type" of offense, with for the most part the same supporting cast, if one QB is consistently completing passes further down field, than it's logical to assume that this QB forces the defense to stretch out more so than a QB who is dumping the ball off (hypothetical not referring Beck and Grossman).

But, even if one QB is 'strecthing the field' moreYIA still doesn't tell you anything meaning about which QB is more efficient or productive or etc.

[Chump Bailey]

Whomever gets the start I hope we all get behind him and don't forget the other guy is one snap away from playing.

Well said Martin.

Did it seem to you that the passes Rex attempted were the more difficult perhaps requiring a bit more skill? Maybe I'm imagining things.

[tiger187126]

Sources?

“His little swag, his little swag that he has,” Gaffney said, via 106.7 The Fan. “And a lot of quarterbacks don’t do that, they just like to sit back and be mellow, but he likes to get amped up and get it going, and I like that in a QB.”

http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d81fc3681/article/quarterback-beck-takes-redskins-offseason-leadership-role (the whole article, i'll try to pick out other stuff from different articles)

“John has basically showing countless effort to be out here and do the work,” wide receiver Anthony Armstrong said. “He has flown in from [san Diego] to come in and throw. I almost have to ignore his phone calls and text messages because he always wants to throw. But I know he’s putting in the work and I’ve seen the improvement.”

Added center Casey Rabach: “Anytime you don’t have a set-in-stone starting quarterback, there are questions about who is going to be in that role. The quarterback is obviously the leader of the team and leader of the offense. I think John has stepped up in a leadership role and worked tirelessly to put himself in the best position to win that job.”

Through the offseason, Beck made sure that he worked closely with the rookies, including wide receivers Leonard Hankerson, Niles Pauland Aldrick Robinson, running backs Roy Helu, Jr., and Evan Royster and offensive lineman Maurice Hurt. Beck even made sure the rookies had a copy of the playbook.

there's a couple for you.

[Mahons21]

But, even if one QB is 'strecthing the field' moreYIA still doesn't tell you anything meaning about which QB is more efficient or productive or etc.

I agree, I've said I'm not using the stat to measure production/efficiency, I explained my position a few posts back to OF.

[Oldfan]

Sure if you're taking it as gospel or as a stat that shows which QB is playing better. I was debating with a poster which QB stretched the field more, I conceded Beck obviously stretches it from sideline to sideline, however as ASF's data shows Grossman stretches a team more vertically. It doesn't mean Rex is better, it doesn't mean much of anything other than Grossman, completes more downfield passes than Beck at this point.

I read ASF saying that he counted passes that the receiver got one hand on (Rex to Stallworth) but he didn't count the long pass (Beck to Stallworth) that the receiver should have gotten both hands on. You can't create stats with such subjective judgments. On a small sample, that one decision skews the stats.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

I look forward to tomorrow's thread by Oldfan entitled "Hey...did I mention that John Beck is going to be our quarterback?"

[tiger187126]

I'm not arguing who's the better leader w/ you, I have no idea, neither do you, and I like both the guys a lot. I am debating the light you tried to paint Grossman in, as this lazy guy who wants money, comparing him to Jenkins. Grossman signed a near vet min deal, and worked out with the team the entire off-season despite not having a contract, he's not the player you're making him about to be for some unknown reason.

i said the circumstances of him originally coming here were like jenkins. we made an offer and said take it or leave it. he thought he could get better money and it turns out he couldn't so he came back.

his contract this year is a one year deal because HE wanted to be a FA next year, the team wanted a multi year deal.

beck with the same option signed a multi-year deal because he believes that he is the future of this team and he spent all year trying to prove it.

[Mahons21]

I read ASF saying that he counted passes that the receiver got one hand on (Rex to Stallworth) but he didn't count the long pass (Beck to Stallworth) that the receiver should have gotten both hands on. You can't create stats with such subjective judgments.

Ok OF than go back and count the air yards on only the completed passes, he has a column that says whether or not the pass was complete. Who do you think has a higher average?

[darrelgreenie]

I agree, I've said I'm not using the stat to measure production/efficiency, I explained my position a few posts back to OF.

Then we agree, remember my orginal statement:

And even still the 'yards in the air' is more descriptive then meaningful/informative

[Oldfan]

Ok OF than go back and count the air yards on only the completed passes, he has a column that says whether or not the pass was complete. Who do you think has a higher average?

I don't care. The sample size is too small and the stat would tell us nothing of importance even if we had a larger sample.

[Mahons21]

It doesn't mean Rex is better, it doesn't mean much of anything other than Grossman has completed more downfield passes than Beck at this point.

[MartinC]

Well said Martin.

Did it seem to you that the passes Rex attempted were the more difficult perhaps requiring a bit more skill? Maybe I'm imagining things.

I think maybe Rex will try to fit a ball into a tighter window and take on coverages that maybe Beck will not. That's not to say that Beck is not just or even more accurate but that Rex arguably has more of a gunslinger mentality than Beck.

The throw Rex made to Armstrong at the start of the last drive of the first half over a linebacker and inside a corner with very tight coverage from the corner. I'm not sure thats a throw Beck attempts right now.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

I read ASF saying that he counted passes that the receiver got one hand on (Rex to Stallworth) but he didn't count the long pass (Beck to Stallworth) that the receiver should have gotten both hands on. You can't create stats with such subjective judgments. On a small sample, that one decision skews the stats.

Neither Davis nor Stallworth were ever open on those deep throws. Stallworth had nowhere to run, because defender had inside position one step deep.

It's not subjective. At least not those throws.