Why John Beck is Likely to Win the Job

[sportjunkie07]

Rex has only started three games in this scheme. His experience edge is narrow. John Beck has a talent and scheme fit edge. Unless Beck is a slow learner, he will equal Rex’s experience level by game three and surpass his performance the rest of the season.

well if he's starting, i hope he learns that quickly and can perform as you expect..

like i said, i have no dog in this fight. im not gonna be angry if beck is starting. we have 2 qb's that can run this system effectively. our qb situation in the nfl east isnt as bad as the media is suggesting.

the next preseason game should be interesting..

[darrelgreenie]

Beck has rarely looked comfortable throwing from the pocket. He's often jumpy, late on reads, and less accurate. Until he masters throwing from the pocket...

Yet, thus far Beck has a slight edge in production/efficiency.

[sportjunkie07]

There also seems to be a misconception out there that Rex has done all his work against starters, while Beck has only had success against backups. My breakdown shows that they've had almost an equal number of possessions against starters, with the following results:

I acknowledge that this is a small sample size, but the arguments that some are making just are not supported by what we've seen in the preseason. Maybe their arguments are stemming from other sources (camp reports, prior seasons, making things up, etc.).

interesting stats Pelado... i do think the competition has been tougher for rex. the steelers defense is much better than the colts and rex played more against the raven's #1's. i dont think beck will be as good in season as his preseason stats suggest while i think rex's stats would be similar.

that said, in the colts game, rex threw a pick while beck was content to eat up what the defense gave him. point for beck... yes rex still makes stupid mistakes and he is going to need to limit those mistakes. at the same time, i dont see any nfl team giving beck the short/underneath routes all day long.. its just not gonna happen.

[Mahons21]

If you need me to declare a point, then I guess my point would be to rebut those who are saying the offense seems to run smoother with Rex. Rex's possessions have resulted in:

I don't need you to declare a point, I'm telling you why those stats shouldn't create point because far too many factors are included, the QB's performance is far from isolated.

Punts - 8 times

FG attempts - 2 times

TD - 2 times

INT - 1 time

Beck's possessions have resulted in:

Punts - 1 time

FG attempts - 3 times

TD - 3 times

INT - 1 time

End of half - 1 time

Did you happen to look at the amount of yardage our RB's got on those drives? Off the top of my head, Beck has had two rushes of 50+ in the Indy game from Helu/Hightower, and then he also had Hightower's run against BAL. How are those stats factored into your analysis? How did Beck do on these drives with runs of 50+? Did these runs come on drives that led to scores?

There also seems to be a misconception out there that Rex has done all his work against starters, while Beck has only had success against backups. My breakdown shows that they've had almost an equal number of possessions against starters, with the following results:

Your creating a strawman, the point is that Rex has done better against stiffer competition. He has, it's not debatable. PIT has a better D than Indy, and Rex had more drives against Ravens starters.

I acknowledge that this is a small sample size, but the arguments that some are making just are not supported by what we've seen in the preseason. Maybe their arguments are stemming from other sources (camp reports, prior seasons, making things up, etc.).

Or maybe they're actually trying to remove the QB from the support system.. They notice Rex doing more things to help the offense run smoothly. And this has been proven, on the drive by drive breakdown, of how many passing attempts each man had on the scoring drives.

Beck has never had more than 50% of the plays be passing plays on a scoring drive, Grossman didn't have a scoring drive where less than 50% of the plays were passes.

Thanks for getting all those #'s, I love analyzing large sets of #'s. Here's what stuck out to me right away.

Passes on scoring drives, TD specifically:

ON Rex's 2 TD drives, he has 5 and 8 passes though obviously the 2nd was the 2-minute drill so it must be counted as somewhat of an out-lier. Up until Beck's drive against BAL 2's, the most passes he'd had on a TD drive were 2. Beck's high is 6 low is 2, Grossman's low is 5 high is 8, and he deserves some credit for that dropped pass by Santana.

Next let's look at the percentage of passes on these drives, again Grossman ran a 2-minute drill so his stats must be taken into context. Rex's first TD, 8 plays 5 passes, second TD, 8 plays 8 passes. Over 50% in either case.

Beck first TD 6 plays 2 passes, next TD 4 plays 2 passes, next drive 12 plays 6 passes. Never goes over 50%.

Now let's take a look at FG drives, like you I'm going to count all drives that ended in a reasonably attempted field goal.

Beck:

13 plays 6 passes

9 plays 2 passes

15 plays 6 passes

Rex

12 plays 6 passes

7 plays 7 passes (another 2 minute drill)

Again though Rex is hovering right at 50% on drives that aren't 2-minute drills, while Beck is significantly lower.

Not sure what to make of all this, but I do think it's somewhat telling of the situation. It could also mean that the team scores more TD's when passing more.. but the play-calling changes with the two QB's as members of both sides of the debate like to point out.

[Chump Bailey]

I have a hard time believing that's what you truly feel. Did you miss Rex's pass to a covered AA against a cover-1? Beck hasn't shown anything near that level of accuracy.

His two accurate passes that stand out to me are; hitting Stallworth/Gaffney (I forget who) against the Indy cover-2 when he was outside the pocket, and his deep pass which was relatively accurate, which IMO is good enough for a pass that travels that much distance in the air.

I agree with you. Rex's accuracy has been impressive I think. How much time do you think each will get Thursday Mahons?

[Oldfan]

I agree to a point, I was incorrect in saying that you don't need in game experience, however in my opinion you're not valuing an additional year +offseason in a system (since Beck came at the end of last offseason) enough.

I don't think that more than one year of bench watching and film study has any benefit. Beck has a year. Now, he needs game experience.

I agree, but they aren't as important as the intangbiles.

We disagree.

P. Manning isn't one of the best because he's physically imposing, he's one of the best because of his ability to read a defense/his preparation/his ball placement. Manning doesn't even throw a tight spiral every pass, he doesn't throw a lot of lasers, and he's not mobile at all.

Peyton runs his scheme well, but he also showboats at the LOS. It's worth millions to him.

I have a hard time believing that's what you truly feel. Did you miss Rex's pass to a covered AA against a cover-1? Beck hasn't shown anything near that level of accuracy.

We disagree. As a DC, I know that I can throw Rex off his game by getting him to move his feet. That's the way teams defense Tom Brady, but Brady has an O-line who can give him time in the pocket. Rex doesn't.

The Shanahan scheme is designed for mobile QBs. You can't compare their completion percentages to those of pocket passers.

[frankez99]

I like Beck, don't know why, but I simply do.

But I wish we would have kept Chase Daniels a few years back over that loser Colt Brennan. Chase is now Brees' apparent replacement while Colt is unemployed and couldn't even get a job in the UFL.

[tiger187126]

So either the offense likes beck better and thus runs the ball better when he's at qb or he's just luckier than rex.

It certainly can't be that the defense has to cover more field against beck than it does grossman and thus allowing better running lanes.

No that might be too logical. But keep on blaming offensive production on beck like it's a bad thing.

[flock53]

Well at least we dont have a "sure thing" starter. Heck when both are mediocre, why not use BOTH and have the opposition have to gameplan for that.

[Mahons21]

I don't think that more than one year of bench watching and film study has any benefit. Beck has a year. Now, he needs game experience.

Beck has a year running the scout team offense, and short off-season. Grossman has a year with Houston in a similar scheme, a full off-season and he took the reps of a backup QB in practice last year.

Peyton runs his scheme well,

Don't you think Rex could run the scheme in the same fashion? That's not to say that he as nearly as good as Manning, only that they both lack the mobility, so like Manning rather than PA-rollouts Beck could just do PA-dropbacks?

We disagree. As a DC, I know that I can throw Rex off his game by getting him to move his feet. That's the way teams defense Tom Brady, but

Brady has an O-line who can give him time in the pocket. Rex doesn't.

You said Beck was more accurate than Rex, this doesn't really refute that.. But here's my response.

And as a DC, I know that I can keep Beck off his game by keeping him in the pocket and eliminating his throwing lanes. I'd say it's easier for my D to ensure that someone with Beck's level of mobility stays in the pocket, than it is to get pressure on Rex. One require bringing pressure (depending on the front 4 of the D), one requires just containing the QB and ensuring he doesn't level the pocket.

[sportjunkie07]

So either the offense likes beck better and thus runs the ball better when he's at qb or he's just luckier than rex.

It certainly can't be that the defense has to cover more field against beck than it does grossman and thus allowing better running lanes.

No that might be too logical. But keep on blaming offensive production on beck like it's a bad thing.

you (and others) might be correct in that beck's style of play (spreading the field, rollouts, mobility threat) is why the running game has been better under him.

id have to see more of it to believe that though. and for now, i believe its just coincidence, playcalling, and inferior competion when compared to rex.

[Oldfan]

I like Beck, don't know why, but I simply do.

But I wish we would have kept Chase Daniels a few years back over that loser Colt Brennan. Chase is now Brees' apparent replacement while Colt is unemployed and couldn't even get a job in the UFL.

Chase would have been a good fit for the Shanahan scheme also. The kid's a gamer.

[Mahons21]

So either the offense likes beck better and thus runs the ball better when he's at qb or he's just luckier than rex.

It certainly can't be that the defense has to cover more field against beck than it does grossman and thus allowing better running lanes.

No that might be too logical. But keep on blaming offensive production on beck like it's a bad thing.

Rex has averaged significantly more yards through the air than Beck, so it can't be that he's stretching them with his arm.

In addition to that, have you seen any of these runs? Hightower cut it back, had nothing to do with the defense worried about Beck in the Ravens game, the Indy game Helu busted a run because the defense thought he stepped out, and Hightower's run against Indy was just plain hard running.

The fact that you're trying your best to give Beck credit from these rushes screams subjectivity.

---------- Post added August-29th-2011 at 02:17 PM ----------

I agree with you. Rex's accuracy has been impressive I think. How much time do you think each will get Thursday Mahons?

Rex a couple of drives, Beck finish out half.

[Oldfan]

you (and others) might be correct in that beck's style of play (spreading the field, rollouts, mobility threat) is why the running game has been better under him.

id have to see more of it to believe that though. and for now, i believe its just coincidence, playcalling, and inferior competion when compared to rex.

I don't know enough about how defenses handle the Zone Stretch to speak with confidence. However, the idea that a defender has to be assigned to spy the QB on a rollout makes the theory that defense is thus more vulnerable to the backside cut plausible.

[Mahons21]

I don't know enough about how defenses handle the Zone Stretch to speak with confidence. However, the idea that a defender has to be assigned to spy the QB on a rollout makes the theory that defense is thus more vulnerable to the backside cut plausible.

Do you honestly believe that Beck's mobility has warranted a spy? I would imagine the DC will just tell either OLB/DE to play more contain rather than chasing the stretch play from behind, but this can help the rushing attack a lot, because you don't have that back side pressure. However cut-back lanes won't be as open, because having that DE/OLB stay at home make cut-backs that much more difficult.

However like you, I don't know enough about how to attack a stretch play from a defensive stand-point. Would love to hear KDawg's assessment of it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnBVx30YvE8&feature=player_embedded#

Looking back on this stretch you see the ROLB "anvil" is in place to make a play against Hightower's cut-back, but Paulsen gets a good block on him.

[TheRookie]

Oldfan, I'm not sure I understand what you're saying here. Please add Star Wars pictures or include a little more "grassy knoll" theory and it might clear this up. :pfft:

Just kidding, I've enjoyed the Jedi Mind Tricks series. Anyway, I'm in agreement here. While both guys have played well, you (well at least I) get a completely different vibe when Beck is running the O. While this is all completely subjective, the tempo feels better and I get the feeling that, perhaps contrary to popular opinion, more of the Shanahan playbook is available with Beck than Grossman due to his ability to get to the outside. It seems like Rex's relative inability to move outside the tackle box effectively keeps a lid on a number of things Shanahan wants to do.

Again, that's just a feeling and I'm not claiming it as fact. But, while both have surpassed expectations, it almost feels like two different offenses to me.

[Oldfan]

Beck has a year running the scout team offense, and short off-season. Grossman has a year with Houston in a similar scheme, a full off-season and he took the reps of a backup QB in practice last year.

Once again, there's a limit to how much can be learned off the field, more experience than needed to hit that limit has no value.

Don't you think Rex could run the scheme in the same fashion? That's not to say that he as nearly as good as Manning, only that they both lack the mobility, so like Manning rather than PA-rollouts Beck could just do PA-dropbacks?

As stated in the OP, that kind of approach limits the potential of the Shanahan offense and makes like for difficult for the O-line in pass protection.

You said Beck was more accurate than Rex, this doesn't really refute that.. But here's my response.

And as a DC, I know that I can keep Beck off his game by keeping him in the pocket and eliminating his throwing lanes. I'd say it's easier for my D to ensure that someone with Beck's level of mobility stays in the pocket, than it is to get pressure on Rex. One require bringing pressure (depending on the front 4 of the D), one requires just containing the QB and ensuring he doesn't level the pocket.

Defenses didn't do very well keeping Jay Cutler in the pocket in Mike's scheme. The Broncos 12 sacks in 2008 were an NFL low.

---------- Post added August-29th-2011 at 02:37 PM ----------

Oldfan, I'm not sure I understand what you're saying here. Please add Star Wars pictures or include a little more "grassy knoll" theory and it might clear this up. :pfft:

Just kidding, I've enjoyed the Jedi Mind Tricks series.

So did I. Nobody does conspiracy theories like ASF.

Anyway, I'm in agreement here. While both guys have played well, you (well at least I) get a completely different vibe when Beck is running the O. While this is all completely subjective, the tempo feels better and I get the feeling that, perhaps contrary to popular opinion, more of the Shanahan playbook is available with Beck than Grossman due to his ability to get to the outside. It seems like Rex's relative inability to move outside the tackle box effectively keeps a lid on a number of things Shanahan wants to do.

That's what I've seen also.

[TheRookie]

You said Beck was more accurate than Rex, this doesn't really refute that.. But here's my response.

And as a DC, I know that I can keep Beck off his game by keeping him in the pocket and eliminating his throwing lanes. I'd say it's easier for my D to ensure that someone with Beck's level of mobility stays in the pocket, than it is to get pressure on Rex. One require bringing pressure (depending on the front 4 of the D), one requires just containing the QB and ensuring he doesn't level the pocket.

This is a good point. I just wonder if it's not jumping the gun to assume Beck loses effectiveness when he's forced to remain in the pocket. Just thinking back to the Indy game, there were a couple passes where he stepped up into a collapsing pocket and delivered the ball. There are just so many unknowns with the guy, but I don't think we can say that he's effectively "neutered" if he's forced to throw between the tackles.

My thoughts at this point are that whatever Beck might lose to Grossman in terms of pocket passing isn't enough to negate what he gains over Rex in his mobility. Again, we're working with a small sample size with the guy, but that's kind of my feeling on it right now.

[Mahons21]

Once again, there's a limit to how much can be learned off the field, more experience than needed to hit that limit has no value.

a year running the scout team offense and a shortened off-season is in your opinion enough time to learn everything that can be learned off the field? I'd have to disagree.

Defenses didn't do very well keeping Jay Cutler in the pocket in Mike's scheme. The Broncos 12 sacks in 2008 were an NFL low.[

A couple of points, 1.) I don't remember enough about the Broncos that year to tell you how often they ran PA-bootlegs, but looking through their highlights briefly I've consistently found footage of Cutler making plays from inside the pocket, much more so than him outside of the pocket, so you're not going to beat Jay by letting him throw from the pocket.

2.) If I told you manning never gets sacked either, or teams have a hard time moving him from the pocket, you'll just credit his o-line. Why can't the same be said for Cutler?

---------- Post added August-29th-2011 at 02:52 PM ----------

This is a good point. I just wonder if it's not jumping the gun to assume Beck loses effectiveness when he's forced to remain in the pocket. Just thinking back to the Indy game, there were a couple passes where he stepped up into a collapsing pocket and delivered the ball. There are just so many unknowns with the guy, but I don't think we can say that he's effectively "neutered" if he's forced to throw between the tackles.

Specifically which plays were these? And did he have a clear throwing lane?

My thoughts at this point are that whatever Beck might lose to Grossman in terms of pocket passing isn't enough to negate what he gains over Rex in his mobility. Again, we're working with a small sample size with the guy, but that's kind of my feeling on it right now.

I couldn't disagree more. There's evidence of numerous QB's that can run this scheme or similar schemes at an extremely high level despite lacking mobility, see P. Manning, M Schaub.

I can't think of a QB who's succeeded in this system that can't beat teams from the pocket.

I look at it this way to be a good QB in the NFL you need to able to beat teams from the pocket, you won't succeed if you can't. Adding mobility to this is an added bonus, but you need to fulfill the baseline requirements to succeed.

This doesn't mean that Beck can't fulfill that baseline requirement as a pocket-passer, but he hasn't yet in my opinion.

[Oldfan]

Do you honestly believe that Beck's mobility has warranted a spy? I would imagine the DC will just tell either OLB/DE to play more contain rather than chasing the stretch play from behind, but this can help the rushing attack a lot, because you don't have that back side pressure. However cut-back lanes won't be as open, because having that DE/OLB stay at home make cut-backs that much more difficult.

However like you, I don't know enough about how to attack a stretch play from a defensive stand-point. Would love to hear KDawg's assessment of it.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AnBVx30YvE8&feature=player_embedded#

Looking back on this stretch you see the ROLB "anvil" is in place to make a play against Hightower's cut-back, but Paulsen gets a good block on him.

I used the term "spy" loosely. I'm referring to the player responsible for containing the QB on a stretch look.

I don't think it far fetched to assert that a good, mobile QB would occupy that defender's primary interest -- making the defense somehwat more vulnerable on the backside cut. It's like another blocker.

[ncr2h]

So either the offense likes beck better and thus runs the ball better when he's at qb or he's just luckier than rex.

It certainly can't be that the defense has to cover more field against beck than it does grossman and thus allowing better running lanes.

No that might be too logical. But keep on blaming offensive production on beck like it's a bad thing.

1-10-WAS 20

(15:00) (Run formation) 39O-T.Hightower right end to WAS 22 for 2 yards (93-D.Freeney).

2-8-WAS 22

(14:24) (Run formation) 39O-T.Hightower left end pushed ob at IND 20 for 58 yards (41-A.Bethea).

1-10-IND 20

(13:42) (Run formation) 12-J.Beck pass deep middle to 10-J.Gaffney to IND 1 for 19 yards (33-M.Bullitt).

1-1-IND 1

(13:03) (Run formation) 39O-T.Hightower left tackle to IND 1 for no gain (51-P.Angerer; 53-K.Conner).

2-1-IND 1

(12:27) (Run formation) 12-J.Beck pass incomplete short middle to 45-M.Sellers.

3-1-IND 1

(12:22) (Run formation) 39O-T.Hightower right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

It's not ridiculous to you that the Colts' defense would be compensating for Beck's running ability on the 2nd play of Beck's 1st preseason appearance?

This isn't a running game that Beck set up. These are big runs that are the result of an improved Redskins' rushing attack.

[MartinC]

I don't know enough about how defenses handle the Zone Stretch to speak with confidence. However, the idea that a defender has to be assigned to spy the QB on a rollout makes the theory that defense is thus more vulnerable to the backside cut plausible.

There are a few ways to go but typically what a defense will do against a team who run the zone stretch and have a kmobile QB who runs the boot a lot is have the outside backer or DE who is responsible for backside contain sit rather than crash down on backside pursuit. Sometimes on obvious run downs they may have a safety responsible for the backside close to line of scrimmage.

If your QB is Mike Vick or similar then you start thinking spy or play a lot of zone and are not as aggressive to keep him in from of you. I don't think anyone is mistaking Beck for Mike Vick when he runs so no one is going to spy him IMO.

Whatever the effect of having a threat on that boot of a mobile QB is it slows down the backside pursuit and makes your stretch run more effective by giving more room for the cutback. Conversely if the backside backer and DE do crash down in pursuit to handle that run that's when you can dial up the play action boot to great effect.

[Mahons21]

I used the term "spy" loosely. I'm referring to the player responsible for containing the QB on a stretch look.

Gotcha, I assumed you mean an LB, my mistake.

I don't think it far fetched to assert that a good, mobile QB would occupy that defender's primary interest -- making the defense somehwat more vulnerable on the backside cut. It's like another blocker.

While yes the defended will have to take more into account, they also won't over pursue because they have to contain the QB. In my opinion, this over pursuit can open up cut-back lanes as well.

[Pelado]

Your creating a strawman, the point is that Rex has done better against stiffer competition. He has, it's not debatable. PIT has a better D than Indy, and Rex had more drives against Ravens starters.

Rex did have more possessions against the Ravens starters, but he did not have more drives. His first three possessions yielded a total of 10 plays and 18 yards. His fourth possession went 81 yards for a TD. Beck's first possession went 70 yards for a TD, his second was a 3 and out due to his poor throw to Moss.

Or maybe they're actually trying to remove the QB from the support system.. They notice Rex doing more things to help the offense run smoothly. And this has been proven, on the drive by drive breakdown, of how many passing attempts each man had on the scoring drives.

Beck has never had more than 50% of the plays be passing plays on a scoring drive, Grossman didn't have a scoring drive where less than 50% of the plays were passes.

Not true. Beck's first TD against the Ravens was pass, pass, run - 67% passes.

[darrelgreenie]

The bottom line: An athletic, mobile QB in the Shanahan offense permits the offense to be run at its full potential and makes the O-line’s pass protection job easier. That’s why John Beck is a better fit for the Shanahan offense than Rex Grossman and why he’s likely to win the job.

I really don't understand some of the arguments against Beck.

Some of the things I've read in this thread are contrary to the on field actuality to such a degree that its made the Beck/Rex discussion empty(to a degree).

I think an honest evaluation of their skillset leads to your conclusion: Beck is a better fit.

But, I would go further and say that Beck is flat out more talented and his skillset is better fit for any offense.

The question remain are they willing to forgo experience for talent? I think the answer will be yes.