Why John Beck is Likely to Win the Job

[tiger187126]

you (and others) might be correct in that beck's style of play (spreading the field, rollouts, mobility threat) is why the running game has been better under him.

id have to see more of it to believe that though. and for now, i believe its just coincidence, playcalling, and inferior competion when compared to rex.

so when beck faces the same first string defense grossman does, they suddenly become inferior?

that sounds like beck makes the team better.

the truth is with grossman's propensity to:

a) throw over the middle

make careless mistakes with the football

c) not leave the pocket

it looks like we're in for a lot more bad rex than good rex.

[Mahons21]

He is talking about the difference between YPA which includes yards gained by the receiver after the catch versus the pure distance the ball travelled in the air. The stats he is citing are those ASF charted after the Colts game when he christened Beck Admiral Checkdown because his passes were mainly short.

It's interesting ASF has not recalculated that stat after the Ravens game when Beck threw a number of deep balls. I suspect the stat no longer fits his desired result.

14.0 vs 6.0-yard air distance, and about that TD

So, Beck isn't throwing many passes against starting defenses. After a nice deep sideline pass to Armstrong, Beck's remaining opportunities look like this:

1-10-BLT 37 (3:53) J.Beck pass incomplete deep left to F.Davis. Beck air-mails a deep pass literally 10 yards over the head of Davis, who was covered anyway.

1-10-WAS 22 (12:03) J. Beck sacked at WAS 15 for -7 yards (C. Redding). Totally unnecessary sack, after rollout with loads of room in front of him. If receivers aren't open, throw it away! Or, run. Instead, Beck gets folded up like a lawn chair, literally 5 seconds after the snap.

3-4-WAS 33 (10:31) J. Beck pass incomplete short middle to S. Moss. For his final pass, he skips a ball short to Moss over the middle, forcing a punt.

In the second half, Beck comes out against the Ravens second-team defense, and immediately launches another deep ball into coverage. The defender has position inside and a step deep, giving Stallworth nowhere to run. Easy interception.

Then, in his last drive against the scrubs, Beck goes 6 for 7, with mostly short passing interspersed with 5 runs. The passes have air distances of 6, 6, 1, 8, 10 and -4 yards. The last was a screen pass to Austin, after 3 runs. Austin's nifty running turns that into a 13-yard TD, composed of a minus-4-yard pass and a 17-yard run.

Austin takes a starring role in that drive, converting three passes totalling 10 yards (air) into 56 yards gained, two third-down conversions, and a TD. Those passes by Beck were very good. But, lets be clear about who ran the routes, who was open, who caught the ball, and who ran 46 yards after the catch. It's Austin who is making a case to see the field in the regular season, not Beck.

For the game, Beck had a median air distance of 6.0 yards per catchable pass. Not bad. Grossman? 14.0. Stunning.

It's only completed passes I believe Martin, so Beck airing it out for an INT and past Davis don't count towards it.

[Oldfan]

He is talking about the difference between YPA which includes yards gained by the receiver after the catch versus the pure distance the ball travelled in the air. The stats he is citing are those ASF charted after the Colts game when he christened Beck Admiral Checkdown because his passes were mainly short.

It's interesting ASF has not recalculated that stat after the Ravens game when Beck threw a number of deep balls. I suspect the stat no longer fits his desired result.

If the average distance of the passing attempts is an important factor then we should have kept D. McNabb. I'll bet he led the NFL in 2010.

[Pelado]

That's entirely irrelevant. The point is that stats/production don't paint a good picture. I gave an example by showing two plays in which either QB through from the pocket, with entirely different results.

I agree that stats/production don't always paint a good picture. Can you think of any of Beck's incomplete passes from the pocket that have been as poor as the almost interception that Grossman threw? What about the interception that he did throw against the Colts?

It cuts both ways. Grossman has had more impressive passes from the pocket, but he's also had more head-scratchers from the pocket.

[MartinC]

I note ASF has changed his definition of yards in the air to now be based on catchable passes, with ASF deciding whats catchable or not. ASF is great with stats - it's his profession - and a master of making the numbers support his predefined conclusion.

On his original thread on this subject I'm pretty sure every pass was included complete or incomplete.

It's not a big deal. I would start Beck but I can see a case for Rex and would not be upset if he gets the nod. Some posters though - and I'm not saying you are one - have picked a winner and then work backwards from that point to show evidence to support that view.

[Mahons21]

If the average distance of the passing attempts is an important factor then we should have kept D. McNabb.

Correction if it were the sole factor we should have kept McNabb. These stats are only being referenced because a posted said that our longer rushes were due to Beck stretching the field. Despite Tim Hightowers 58 yd run coming after Beck threw all of 2 passes, and despite the fact that Grossman has proven he's more willing to air it out. If the poster was only referring to stretch plays than he may have had a somewhat valid point but only to a degree.

---------- Post added August-29th-2011 at 03:50 PM ----------

I agree that stats/production don't always paint a good picture. Can you think of any of Beck's incomplete passes from the pocket that have been as poor as the almost interception that Grossman threw? What about the interception that he did throw against the Colts?

Ya I can think of a 3rd down play when put the ball in the dirt, remind you of anyone?

It cuts both ways. Grossman has had more impressive passes from the pocket, but he's also had more head-scratchers from the pocket.

That's a fair point, but Grossman has shown a level of talent from the pocket that Beck hasn't, that's all I'm saying.

[Pelado]

It's only completed passes I believe Martin, so Beck airing it out for an INT and past Davis don't count towards it.

His original post based it on attempts. His follow-up somehow changed it to "catchable pass." ASF has been just as consistent as Grossman.

[tiger187126]

His original post based it on attempts. His follow-up somehow changed it to "catchable pass." ASF has been just as consistent as Grossman.

http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?352478-Shanahan-s-Jedi-Mind-Tricks-II-Sex-Cannon-in-dead-heat-with-Admiral-Checkdown-Shanahan-deserves-Coach-of-the-Year-if-not-an-Oscar&p=8488279&viewfull=1#post8488279

[darrelgreenie]

You don't find Indy's system similar? It is based on the stretch/PA off the stretch from what I can tell.

No.

I agree that its has strecth/PA elements but it is not run focused like Mike's Denver offenses and it doesn't include as much bootkeep/bootswap action.

Production is measuring everything they've done inside the pocket and outside, so that won't give us a very accurate gauge

Of course not.(I'm quite sure you'll grant that I value on the field performance more then stats no?)

But, even in this offense the majority of Beck's passes are from within the pocket.

Therefore if he couldn't cut the mustard from the pocket it would be reflected in the production.

Or do you disagree?

I should also repeat this if you didn't catch it. My baseline requirements are basically me giving the QB an eye test from the pocket, so clearly they MUST be taken as 100% factual.

What does this have to do with me?

[tiger187126]

Of course not.(I'm quite sure you'll grant that I value on the field performance more then stats no?)

But, even in this offense the majority of Beck's passes are from within the pocket.

Therefore if he couldn't cut the mustard from the pocket it would be reflected in the production.

Or do you disagree?

cam newton is a good example. if beck were really so atrocious from the pocket compared to peyton manning jr. (sexy rexy) his numbers would look more like cam newton's than grossman's.

[darrelgreenie]

I note ASF has changed his definition of yards in the air to now be based on catchable passes, with ASF deciding whats catchable or not. ASF is great with stats - it's his profession - and a master of making the numbers support his predefined conclusion.

On his original thread on this subject every pass was included complete or incomplete.

It's not a big deal. I would start Beck but I can see a case for Rex and would not be upset if he gets the nod. Some posters though - and I'm not saying you are one - have picked a winner and then work backwards from that point to show evidence to support that view.

I know right?

And even still the 'yards in the air' is more descriptive then meaningful/informative.

[Mahons21]

I note ASF has changed his definition of yards in the air to now be based on catchable passes, with ASF deciding whats catchable or not. ASF is great with stats - it's his profession - and a master of making the numbers support his predefined conclusion.

I would argue that measuring catchable passes would actually be a more accurate indicator, depending on how objective the observer is. For example Rex's pass to Moss in the endzone I have no problem with including in the statistics, Rex could have done nothing better on that play.

But I admit I didn't pick up on that key word. Though that's really the only play I can see being affected by it.

---------- Post added August-29th-2011 at 03:54 PM ----------

I know right?

And even still the 'yards in the air' is more descriptive then meaningful/informative.

You don't think it's indicative of which QB stretches a team vertically?

[darrelgreenie]

As for some of the intangibles, A. Armstrong recently said Beck is more fired up and more of a cheerleader in the huddle, Grossman is more the cool cat who doesn't talk so much. According to Chris Russell who is around the team a lot notices Beck stays late, Grossman goes home early. Neither item is a definitive intangible though. Beck personality wise seems more type A.

How come you always hear thesee tidbits of info? I'm jealous.

-BTW is there a place I can hear the sound bite, podcast?

[tiger187126]

I would argue that measuring catchable passes would actually be a more accurate indicator, depending on how objective the observer is. For example Rex's pass to Moss in the endzone I have no problem with including in the statistics, Rex could have done nothing better on that play.

but if it was such an accurate indicator, then why leave it out up until the point that it makes beck look better than grossman?

basically you take a formula that you call concrete and based on all kinds of hulla-baloo that shows your guy as the better option. after a couple more games though, it doesn't work anymore. it actually makes the other guy look better.

well we certainly can't have that, so the formula needs to be "tweaked" to give a more "accurate indicator" of good and bad.

don't get the wool pulled over your eyes, he's making up stats and rules for measuring stats on the fly so he can keep rex ahead of beck.

[Skinsinparadise]

Cooley likes both QB's, says Beck's arm is stronger.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc-sports-bog/post/gaffney-says-beck-has-swag-cooley-says-qb-battle-is-a-coin-flip/2011/08/29/gIQAsFBknJ_blog.html#pagebreak

[Pelado]

You don't think it's indicative of which QB stretches a team vertically?

Only if you're willing to admit that it ignores stretching a team horizontally.

[tiger187126]

How come you always hear thesee tidbits of info? I'm jealous.

-BTW is there a place I can hear the sound bite, podcast?

beck organizing the workouts and staying after practice last year (iirc) to throw to armstrong show you the intangible leadership.

meanwhile sexy rexy has twice drug his feet about coming hear because he thinks he's still a hot commodity.

or does everyone forget that rex was our first cullen jenkins moment?

[Mahons21]

but if it was such an accurate indicator, then why leave it out up until the point that it makes beck look better than grossman?

Probably because up until that point there had been any significant drops on either QB's end. If you can think of any bad drops for Beck that went through the air I'm sure you can tell ASF and he'd adjust.

basically you take a formula that you call concrete and based on all kinds of hulla-baloo that shows your guy as the better option. after a couple more games though, it doesn't work anymore. it actually makes the other guy look better.

It's not a crazy formula, it's the distance in yards the ball travels in the air from the LOS.

well we certainly can't have that, so the formula needs to be "tweaked" to give a more "accurate indicator" of good and bad.

don't get the wool pulled over your eyes, he's making up stats and rules for measuring stats on the fly so he can keep rex ahead of beck.

I don't need stats or to hear it from someone else to know that Grossman stretches the field vertically more often, it's been evident with my own eyes, I assumed it was the same for everyone.

Update: ASF has since come to this thread to inform everyone the formula never chanced, your entire post is irrelevant and incorrect.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

He is talking about the difference between YPA which includes yards gained by the receiver after the catch versus the pure distance the ball travelled in the air. The stats he is citing are those ASF charted after the Colts game when he christened Beck Admiral Checkdown because his passes were mainly short.

It's interesting ASF has not recalculated that stat after the Ravens game when Beck threw a number of deep balls. I suspect the stat no longer fits his desired result.

Wrong. See the end of my new thread OP from Sunday. Stats for Ravens game, which even include Becks throws against the second team:

.

14.0 vs 6.0-yard air distance, and about that TD

So, Beck isn't throwing many passes against starting defenses. After a nice deep sideline pass to Armstrong, Beck's remaining opportunities look like this:

• 1-10-BLT 37 (3:53) J.Beck pass incomplete deep left to F.Davis. Beck air-mails a deep pass literally 10 yards over the head of Davis, who was covered anyway.
  
• 1-10-WAS 22 (12:03) J. Beck sacked at WAS 15 for -7 yards (C. Redding). Totally unnecessary sack, after rollout with loads of room in front of him. If receivers aren't open, throw it away! Or, run. Instead, Beck gets folded up like a lawn chair, literally 5 seconds after the snap.
  
• 3-4-WAS 33 (10:31) J. Beck pass incomplete short middle to S. Moss. For his final pass, he skips a ball short to Moss over the middle, forcing a punt.
  

In the second half, Beck comes out against the Ravens second-team defense, and immediately launches another deep ball into coverage. The defender has position inside and a step deep, giving Stallworth nowhere to run. Easy interception.

Then, in his last drive against the scrubs, Beck goes 6 for 7, with mostly short passing interspersed with 5 runs. The passes have air distances of 6, 6, 1, 8, 10 and -4 yards. The last was a screen pass to Austin, after 3 runs. Austin's nifty running turns that into a 13-yard TD, composed of a minus-4-yard pass and a 17-yard run.

Austin takes a starring role in that drive, converting three passes totalling 10 yards (air) into 56 yards gained, two third-down conversions, and a TD. Those passes by Beck were very good. But, lets be clear about who ran the routes, who was open, who caught the ball, and who ran 46 yards after the catch. It's Austin who is making a case to see the field in the regular season, not Beck.

For the game, Beck had a median air distance of 6.0 yards per catchable pass. Not bad. Grossman? 14.0. Stunning.

[Mahons21]

Only if you're willing to admit that it ignores stretching a team horizontally.

Obviously.. stretching a team horizontally is going to come of Beck's boot-legs I've conceded that point all along.

[Skinsinparadise]

How come you always hear thesee tidbits of info? I'm jealous.

-BTW is there a place I can hear the sound bite, podcast?

I got to go look at 980's web site and check, often they have links to old shows in their archives, both cases it was Chris Russell, he makes appearances throughout the day, most of what I hear though is on the Sports Fix from 12-2. I work from home so I have the Internet/radio stream going on most of the day. Chris who actually likes Rex has ribbed him 2 different times when he gave his radio reports - for how quickly Rex takes off after practice and how Beck is the opposite extreme and stays later to practice/study -- with his wife often bringing his kids for awhile so he can take a break and spend some time with them. In converse, he's surprised, Grossman takes off so quickly because he doesn't have kids as far as he knows. To follow up on the Armstrong comments, I just noticed a new article posted in Breaking News with Gaffney talking about Beck being a fired up style QB. Edit, here's that article: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc-sports-bog/post/gaffney-says-beck-has-swag-cooley-says-qb-battle-is-a-coin-flip/2011/08/29/gIQAsFBknJ_blog.html#pagebreak

[GWinSkins83]

If the average distance of the passing attempts is an important factor then we should have kept D. McNabb. I'll bet he led the NFL in 2010.

:applause:

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

I note ASF has changed his definition of yards in the air to now be based on catchable passes.

It's always been the same definition. Does the pass give the receiver a reasonable chance to catch the pass. Generally that's going to be at least one hand on the ball.

[Mahons21]

beck organizing the workouts and staying after practice last year (iirc) to throw to armstrong show you the intangible leadership.

meanwhile sexy rexy has twice drug his feet about coming hear because he thinks he's still a hot commodity.

or does everyone forget that rex was our first cullen jenkins moment?

Or did you forget that despite not having a contract Grossman came majority if not all of the team organized practices?

And yes Rex is smart enough to make a business decision that works out best for him, clearly we should be chastising him for this, its not like his career is on the line every play.

[darrelgreenie]

You don't think it's indicative of which QB stretches a team vertically?

Over the course of a season? Maybe.

But, even if its is indicative of 'strecthing a team vertically' YTA is more about 'type' or 'style' of offense it doesn't speak to quality or efficiency or production.