Why John Beck is Likely to Win the Job

[Skinsinparadise]

DG:

I am not rally fixated on Gabbert, I threw other scenarios with other QB's from the last draft. If I had to take a stab on this based somewhat on reporter conjecture.

They decided not to trade up in the first couple of rounds and give up high picks for this year or next. they were handcuffed from trades from the previous season and weren't going down that road again.

They considered Locker but weren't going to trade up for him, he was gone at #8. this is mostly my conjecture, but I do recall some saying Shanny liked Locker.

Gabbert is there at #10, they didn't love him, they found an opportunity to trade down so they took it.

They put a premium on finding a pass rusher LB 3-4 guy, we heard them talk about this in the off season, guys that could have been good free agents at that position were resigned.

They were surprised at Ponder being taken before their #16 pick, he might have been the guy they wanted

At #16 it was a choice between Kerrigan and a trade down, they decided to take Kerrigan partly because they couldn't find a trade partner offering something they liked pick wise?

With their 2nd rounder they thought Dalton still might be there and didn't want to give up picks by trading up.

they didn't like guys like Stanzi and others further down in the draft

As for Belichick/Mallet not taking a head case -- perhaps saying head case is too strong but Belichick is famous for not worrying much about personality issues, as you know he for example is the guy who took Randy Moss, and AH among others

[darrelgreenie]

Perhaps, Shanny wanted Beck to improve and fix a few things and now he's starting to see it.....I am not going to give the team a hard time about a fluke injury.

Or perhaps Mike/Kyle got gun shy going with Beck?

And if they were gun shy it suggest to me that they weren't sure that they lacked the faith and courage of their convictions.

I'm not giving them a hard time about an injury either.

I pointing out that in fact Jenkins is not currently helping the team.

I'm not making a value judgement.

The Packers at least last year put good interior pressure on the opponents so Clay wasn't the only focus for the defense. Plus Orkapo is no Clay so IMO it isn't an apples to apples comparison.

This is exactly my point and its why I said even though I love Kerrigan he's a luxury item imo.

The interior push was lacking last year and that is what Cofield and Bowen brought.

My point with the Packers is that their defense works just fine with one elite pass rusher.

And I would argue that Rob Jackson is better then any of their non-Matthews backers.

And while Rak isn't as versatile as Clay he's without a doubt an elite or at least near elite pass rusher.

Th d is arguably strong now, it was horrible last year.Orakpo has said its helped to have Kerrigan on the other side in terms of freeing him up. No question the d line is helpful too. IMO its a combination of everything.....

I agree its certainly a combo of everything but imo the bulk of the credit to our FA moves: Cofield and Bowen.

While I think Kerrigan is better, I don't think the gap between Rob Jackson and Ryan Kerrigan is a large as people think.

And again we'd have to say which QB. the which QB is the operative point IMO.

SIP you're so fixated on which QB and unless you know someone that can predict the future I can't tell which QB would have been 'thee' answer.

You know I'm not big into the speculations from 'sources'.

My point is that there were options and we stood pat and that lack of action led us to Rex Grossman.

i like neither ironically as much as Dalton. Kaepernick has that jerky jerky delivery. but the same answer about Dalton applies to Ponder. I don't like Kaepernick in the 2nd round. By the way, I do recall you saying around the draft that some of these Qb's are being considered now 1st and 2nd rounders are now looking to be over drafted and don't deserve that draft status -- I thought either Dalton or Ponder were part of that assessment by you. Maybe it was other guys?

Probably other guys, I try not to get to into the prediction business saying which guy will go where.

I prefer to focus on the evaluations.

If a player is 'overdrafted' it doesn't mean they're a bad prospect or a bad pick.

An old drafting mantra is: better one round too early then 1 pick too late.

I can't fault them for a hypothetical situation, we don't know who was willing to trade at that time and for what.

Aaahhhh, I'm not faulting them for hypotheticals I'm faulting them for the result.

I don't know and don't care to speculate on hypotheticals but we do know that we were left with Rex Grossman as a starter.

Jenkins. Its unfair to say imagine that he was a good prospect. I can say would you take Jenkins or Mallet and imagine Mallet stunk, who would you take?

But, that is basically the premise you're considering now, that Mallett stunk.

You don't like Mallett as prospect so its hard for you to imagine that other people actually did think he was a good prospect.

BTW-Did you get to see Mallett or Kaep in preseason?

I am gathering you trust your instincts a lot about these Qb's which is cool and that's driving you. I've been right and i've been wrong about Qb's, for me its feels more like a crap shoot when it comes to rookie Qbs.

Then you're reading me wrong.

Although I trust my instincts and I think if you look at my track record with my QB evals I'm on point more often then I miss.

But, I'm not being driven by my QB instincts.

I'm being driven by results.

The end result: Rex Grossman.

Meanwhile a potential option like Andy Dalton is playing well.

I'm also being driven by the fact that good QB can be found and developed by smart coaching staffs.

I

[GWinSkins83]

Or perhaps Mike/Kyle got gun shy going with Beck?

And if they were gun shy it suggest to me that they weren't sure that they lacked the faith and courage of their convictions.

I'm not giving them a hard time about an injury either.

I pointing out that in fact Jenkins is not currently helping the team.

I'm not making a value judgement.

This is exactly my point and its why I said even though I love Kerrigan he's a luxury item imo.

The interior push was lacking last year and that is what Cofield and Bowen brought.

My point with the Packers is that their defense works just fine with one elite pass rusher.

And I would argue that Rob Jackson is better then any of their non-Matthews backers.

And while Rak isn't as versatile as Clay he's without a doubt an elite or at least near elite pass rusher.

I agree its certainly a combo of everything but imo the bulk of the credit to our FA moves: Cofield and Bowen.

While I think Kerrigan is better, I don't think the gap between Rob Jackson and Ryan Kerrigan is a large as people think.

SIP you're so fixated on which QB and unless you know someone that can predict the future I can't tell which QB would have been 'thee' answer.

You know I'm not big into the speculations from 'sources'.

My point is that there were options and we stood pat and that lack of action led us to Rex Grossman.

Probably other guys, I try not to get to into the prediction business saying which guy will go where.

I prefer to focus on the evaluations.

If a player is 'overdrafted' it doesn't mean they're a bad prospect or a bad pick.

An old drafting mantra is: better one round too early then 1 pick too late.

Aaahhhh, I'm not faulting them for hypotheticals I'm faulting them for the result.

I don't know and don't care to speculate on hypotheticals but we do know that we were left with Rex Grossman as a starter.

But, that is basically the premise you're considering now, that Mallett stunk.

You don't like Mallett as prospect so its hard for you to imagine that other people actually did think he was a good prospect.

BTW-Did you get to see Mallett or Kaep in preseason?

Then you're reading me wrong.

Although I trust my instincts and I think if you look at my track record with my QB evals I'm on point more often then I miss.

But, I'm not being driven by my QB instincts.

I'm being driven by results.

The end result: Rex Grossman.

Meanwhile a potential option like Andy Dalton is playing well.

I'm also being driven by the fact that good QB can be found and developed by smart coaching staffs.

I

Look we didn't get a QB is over. Next year we will have one. Maybe a better one than Dalton. With a defense that is elite. Bengals have an Elite defense too. Dalton also has a WR that he can just throw the ball up and grab it. We don't have that. Its lot of reasons why the Dalton is looking good not just himself. You don't settle on QB you get someone that you love and not just someone you think can be good with your teachings.

[Skinsinparadise]

Or perhaps Mike/Kyle got gun shy going with Beck?

And if they were gun shy it suggest to me that they weren't sure that they lacked the faith and courage of their convictions.

My point though is its feasible to me that they decided to take a chance without having total conviction about either one of the Qbs. I am pretty good at what I do professionally, I've won a bunch of awards among others things, and sometimes with all my experience at my job i still sometimes guess as opposed to act out of total conviction. I can follow the line of logic of rebuilding the defense and skilled positions and if a QB doesn't fall to them in the draft, they will play the guess card and see what they got with Beck and Rex. And if neither guy works, whomever they pick in the following year should start with a better support system which should help them. And we don't know yet if the QB this season has failed, its riding on Beck. Since he's the guy I thought from the get go would give us a better chance than Rex, am now more optimistic about the QB position than I was before. I presume you too.

This is exactly my point and its why I said even though I love Kerrigan he's a luxury item imo. The interior push was lacking last year and that is what Cofield and Bowen brought.

My point with the Packers is that their defense works just fine with one elite pass rusher. And I would argue that Rob Jackson is better then any of their non-Matthews backers. And while Rak isn't as versatile as Clay he's without a doubt an elite or at least near elite pass rusher.I agree its certainly a combo of everything but imo the bulk of the credit to our FA moves: Cofield and Bowen. While I think Kerrigan is better, I don't think the gap between Rob Jackson and Ryan Kerrigan is a large as people think.

I think you missed my point there some. What I said is Orkapo is no Clay Matthews and can IMO be more easily stopped. Matthews is such a freak of nature that IMO he can more likely do it on his own. As for Rob Jackson, if Haslett was sold on him being the answer I doubt they'd be interested in Kerrigan, they had plenty of holes to fill. Jackson has looked good in limited duty but I recall people thinking Chris Wilson would be a beast if just given a chance. You got me if Jackson is very good, though. But I get why you like him.

SIP you're so fixated on which QB and unless you know someone that can predict the future I can't tell which QB would have been 'thee' answer.

You know I'm not big into the speculations from 'sources'. My point is that there were options and we stood pat and that lack of action led us to Rex Grossman.

I just recall looking at the free agent list and not being excited about ANY of those guys. so its tough for me to bemoan the idea that Shanny wasn't enthused about them either. If I really liked a guy I'd be dissapointed.

Aaahhhh, I'm not faulting them for hypotheticals I'm faulting them for the result. I don't know and don't care to speculate on hypotheticals but we do know that we were left with Rex Grossman as a starter.

I just think they have a real methodical way about building this team which i like. If Beck fails, I have faith that it won't escape Shanny that they need to find a good QB in the draft and they will pull it off.

But, that is basically the premise you're considering now, that Mallett stunk. You don't like Mallett as prospect so its hard for you to imagine that other people actually did think he was a good prospect.

BTW-Did you get to see Mallett or Kaep in preseason?

Same idea here. If I am not excited about a player and Shanny likewise isn't going for them, then yeah I don't fret. If Shanny liked Mallet I'd trust him. I didn't watch either guy in preseason, as for Mallet i have to admit part of what I didn't like about him is how he came across in interviews, he just didn't strike me very likable or smart. But I haven't spent a lot of time on him so if shanny thought otherwise I'd go for the ride

The end result: Rex Grossman. Meanwhile a potential option like Andy Dalton is playing well. I'm also being driven by the fact that good QB can be found and developed by smart coaching staffs.

I am a bit of a draft geek and in my book I just don't fault ANY team for not making trades. you just never know what went down behind the scenes. I do fault teams for skipping over players they could have drafted. I didn't like it for example when Vinny passed over Calais Campbell at the time for M. Kelly. I so LOVE trading down to accumulate picks, watching Shanny pull off going from missing key picks to having the most picks in the draft was a lot of fun for me to watch and based on preliminary reports, looks like they have a good class. If Andy Dalton or whomever didn't flow into that so be it. am sure we'd be all over QB next draft if we need to be. And again lets see what Beck does.

And i get you aren't attacking them for not making trades either, you are saying if I read you, just get it done. I guess on my end I take into account who was there and who wasn't when the skins picked or were signing free agents, and I wasn't upset about a missed opportunity as it was all going down.

[darrelgreenie]

And i get you aren't attacking them for not making trades either, you are saying if I read you, just get it done. I guess on my end I take into account who was there and who wasn't when the skins picked or were signing free agents, and I wasn't upset about a missed opportunity as it was all going down.

Imo when a team completely passes on the QB position and their answer at QB prevents the team from reaching their potential then they made a mistake.

And even if Beck plays well it still highlights a mistake albeit a much lesser one: starting Rex over Beck for some odd reason; but I digress.

Good discussion though.

Neither here nor there re:Mallett

He's not as bad of a guy as his perception, he's coaches son who loves football:

Mallett from preseason:

[Mahons21]

I looove me some Mallet. I really think we missed out on that one, but truth be told he might not be athletic enough to run our system.

[darrelgreenie]

Mallett is no stranger to running the boot-keep/swap type of play action passes.

The Arkansas offense had plenty.

(I haven't watched that clip since preseason) but IIRCyou can even see him run a few bootlegs in that clip.

You can certainly move around re-set and throw from the pocket and throw on the move.

---------- Post added October-17th-2011 at 11:37 PM ----------

Check out the scramble @6:48