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Why John Beck is Likely to Win the Job

Oldfan

By Oldfan
in The Stadium

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Burgold

Burgold

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Earlier in this thread, Skinsinparadise provided the quotes. Shanahan says he doesn't just think that Beck has the athletic talent to be an NFL starting QB, he knows it.

What he doesn't know is how well Beck will react to the bright lights.

That's my biggest worry with Beck. In the Tampa game in Beck's final audition where the heat was really turned up for him to win that qb job in what was really a very even preseason race... he choked. He fell apart. The pressure of the moment impacted his game in a major way.

Would Grossman have performed similarly? We'll never know, but we do know that Beck all but failed his final exam while doing well throughout the course. To me, that gives the nod to Grossman, but in all honesty, I'm relatively okay with either for this season. Both performed well for the most part this offseason.

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SlkyCaramel

SlkyCaramel

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Redskins depth chart, which looks like its completely up to date with guys like Neild the backup and Anthony Bryant gone, shows Rex to be the starter

http://www.redskins.com/team/depth-chart.html

People do realize that Shanahan isn't stupid? If anyone thought this was a real indication of who is starting at QB then the media would have picked up on it in a second. But..they didn't, because where the QB's are on the depth chart is meaningless, it's the same order they were in prior to us cutting down the roster (all they did was delete Clemens name). Shanahan is not going to let anyone know who is starting until next week, he has said it 50 million times.

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darrelgreenie

darrelgreenie

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That's my biggest worry with Beck. In the Tampa game in Beck's final audition where the heat was really turned up for him to win that qb job in what was really a very even preseason race... he choked. He fell apart. The pressure of the moment impacted his game in a major way.

Would Grossman have performed similarly? We'll never know, but we do know that Beck all but failed his final exam while doing well throughout the course. To me, that gives the nod to Grossman, but in all honesty, I'm relatively okay with either for this season. Both performed well for the most part this offseason.

I hear yah, as I've said before I expect either QB to perform above their perceptions, but Rex scares the beejesus out of me.

I'm fairly certain that Mike/Kyle take into account the personnel groupings when they grade the QBs.

Beck certainly had an uneven performance in his final outing but that's not uncommon when 2nd and 3rd unit skill position players start the game.

If you frame Beck's play in this game as choking then its how do you view Rex's play against the Colts back-ups when he was playing with the 2nd/3rd unit skill position players?

To my eye Beck's play with the 2nd/3rd/4th units has matched Rex's play with those same units.

Both were out of sync and uneven, both threw INTs (Rex imo throwing the worst INT between the 2).

Beck's play with the 1st unit skill position players proves that he's at least near if not equal to Rex in execution.

Both of them have played well.

For me the question remains same as its ever been.

Will they go with talent or experience?

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Skinsinparadise

Skinsinparadise

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I am rewatching the last game of the season versus the Giants. ASF in another post implied that the game against Jacksonville was Grossman's down game. I don't think he played that hot against the Giants -- you got the INT, 2 fumbles, a bunch of balls battered. His thing in this game too is passes up the middle, that seems by far his gig, mixed in with some screen passes. He strikes me as an easy Qb for the opposing defense to game plan for.

I do think there is a shot Grossman gets the first start but if so I have the feeling that we will be seeing Beck eventually. In the pre season teams don't go crazy generally with showcasing their pressure packages. In the Giants game, you can see their game plan was to overload the pressure on the blind side and instruct their players to try to knock the ball out of his hands -- Grossman in this game is far from smooth under pressure. He's not awful, he has his moments but to me its an up and down performance.

Edit: I'll go as far to say that i wouldn't call Grossman's game against the Giants as above average, to me its very average, some good, some bad, but he's not playing in it like a Qb who can carry the team and be the main factor as to why you win. Thus IMO the one game, and only where he looked above average was against Dallas whose defense especially their pass defense was horrendous last year.

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jayneal7

jayneal7

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Anyone who watched this preseason and honestly thinks John Beck outplayed and earned the starting job over Rex Grossman is just kidding themselves. Potential is great in 22yr olds. Enough already. Grossman was the better man and every player on that 53 man roster knows it. So do the coaches. If Shanahan starts Beck this week, it's nothing but ego.

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moondog

moondog

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Anyone who watched this preseason and honestly thinks John Beck outplayed and earned the starting job over Rex Grossman is just kidding themselves. Potential is great in 22yr olds. Enough already. Grossman was the better man and every player on that 53 man roster knows it. So do the coaches. If Shanahan starts Beck this week, it's nothing but ego.

This. As fans, we only see the games - most do not get to see the practices (with the exception of the first few in the summer), and from what I saw, Grossman, by a good margin, was the superior performer. In the same way that fans of other teams that I'm friends with who do not really watch the skins games but see that stats would always say Campbell was very good or now most media people just give the typical Beck/Grossman suck speech, looking at the stats or saying the cliche does not always tell the whole picture. Sometimes it's all about the eyeball test. Campbell's stats were pretty good and getting better and I still think he's a pretty good quarterback but when you watched him play, it was just dump off here and there. Same with McNabb last year - great yards stats (poor TD/int ratio) but if you watched the games, most will say Grossman made the offense look much better than McNabb.

Watching the preseason, the offense looked much more potent with Grossman than Beck. The difference was quick, accurate strikes to RECEIVERS that gave them opportunities to do something after the catch. Beck seemed to check down a lot and completed far less passes to receivers. One thing I like most about Grossman is he LOVES throwing to Moss. Moss is a great receiver and his production skyrockets with Grossman (look at the last couple games last year in terms of touchdowns as well as this year preseason both in terms of catches and touchdowns with Grossman compared to McNabb/Beck respectively). In my opinion, Beck's only advantage over Grossman is mobility and he doesn't seem to fumble as much but I'm pretty sure I've seen stats to support he actually is more turnover prone than Grossman - he has been this preseason as well and Grossman didn't fumble once.

The offense has looked more potent with Grossman, he's avoided pressure with quick throws to open receivers/backs, he gets the balls to our playmakers more often than Beck and I'm hoping he wins the job.

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Skinsinparadise

Skinsinparadise

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Posted
Anyone who watched this preseason and honestly thinks John Beck outplayed and earned the starting job over Rex Grossman is just kidding themselves. Potential is great in 22yr olds. Enough already. Grossman was the better man and every player on that 53 man roster knows it. So do the coaches. If Shanahan starts Beck this week, it's nothing but ego.

Grossman has a long resume, and its checkered at best, he's practically an NFL punch line for bad QB play. Maybe its unfair to the dude but it is what it is. With Beck, potential might be not be the operative work, the operative expression IMO is upside. Few would argue that Beck doesn't have more speed and the better arm. Grossman on the other hand has the experience advantage.

Generally, the more talented QB becomes better than the less talented one as he earns experience. Now if you think Beck stinks and doesn't have the upside, and or Grossman gets a bum rap and we can't judge him by the fairly large sample size of games he played, that's a different story.

As for anyone of us having the definitive read on this, seems a bit egotistical for US, not Shanny if he starts whomever. I really doubt he's going to start a QB out of spite.

---------- Post added September-5th-2011 at 09:03 AM ----------

This. As fans, we only see the games - most do not get to see the practices (with the exception of the first few in the summer), and from what I saw, Grossman, by a good margin, was the superior performer.

From the reporters who covered practices, mainly Keim, Campbell, Paulson, and Russell. They said it was pretty even in practice, Russell said on the radio that he asked a player that question and he told him its about even, one day one player shines, the next day its the other guy.

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Mahons21

Mahons21

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I am rewatching the last game of the season versus the Giants. ASF in another post implied that the game against Jacksonville was Grossman's down game. I don't think he played that hot against the Giants -- you got the INT, 2 fumbles, a bunch of balls battered. His thing in this game too is passes up the middle, that seems by far his gig, mixed in with some screen passes. He strikes me as an easy Qb for the opposing defense to game plan for.

I do think there is a shot Grossman gets the first start but if so I have the feeling that we will be seeing Beck eventually. In the pre season teams don't go crazy generally with showcasing their pressure packages. In the Giants game, you can see their game plan was to overload the pressure on the blind side and instruct their players to try to knock the ball out of his hands -- Grossman in this game is far from smooth under pressure. He's not awful, he has his moments but to me its an up and down performance.

Edit: I'll go as far to say that i wouldn't call Grossman's game against the Giants as above average, to me its very average, some good, some bad, but he's not playing in it like a Qb who can carry the team and be the main factor as to why you win. Thus IMO the one game, and only where he looked above average was against Dallas whose defense especially their pass defense was horrendous last year.

http://www.youtube.com/user/Dirtbag359#p/u/45/UKuswgk6ZzM

http://www.youtube.com/user/Dirtbag359#p/u/44/jugw7ZjyMLs

Here are the videos so everyone can make their own opinion of the game, but your assessment IMO isn't very accurate.

2 fumbles:

First fumble, correct protection is called for overload should be picked up Cooley is blown off the ball by Pierre Paul who gets a great jump (could be Rex's fault if he didn't use a good hard count), Rex has no chance on this play. This fumble occurs about 2 minutes into the video

Second fumble, start of the 4th qtr, play starts at 15:00, by 14:58 Umenyioura has his hand on the ball with a 4 man rush. Logically this is not the QB's fault, yes it'd be great if he held on to it, but this falls on the blocker.

Interception:

You give full blame to Rex on this play? Did you see it? If you saw the play the only logical way someone with your knowledge of football could blame this solely on Rex would be if you know the play called. Rex throws to the flat Sellers runs a wheel route, ball is picked with no Sellers in sight. If the play called for a wheel route that's on Rex, if it called for Sellers to be in the flat and Rex threw to a spot where a receiver was supposed to be but instead it was only a defender I don't think that should be on Rex.

Re: "only throws over the middle of the field"

First off this has got to be the oddest critique of any QB I've ever seen, really reaching here. IMO the passes are much more indicative of the scheme than the QB, we run a lot of tight formations with short-intermediate-deep crossing patterns, there's a high probability of such passes being completed in the middle of the field. On top of that Rex does hit numerous receivers on several different routes in this game that are on the outside.

Re: "Rex looking average"

No kidding, did you see the rest of our team? I don't think anyone's fooled into thinking Rex is going to propel us anywhere, but if you give this guy some play-makers on offense he can get the ball in their hands.

Re: "Batted balls"

I agree, too many in this game.

Why your pro-Beck argument has to be so anti-Rex I don't quite understand, and what have you seen from Beck that leads you to believe he can play consistently better than Rex?

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moondog

moondog

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.

---------- Post added September-5th-2011 at 09:03 AM ----------

From the reporters who covered practices, mainly Keim, Campbell, Paulson, and Russell. They said it was pretty even in practice, Russell said on the radio that he asked a player that question and he told him its about even, one day one player shines, the next day its the other guy.

You're right, but I never really argued about practices. If the practices are about even, that only confirms my comments that in the games, Grossman has looked better, which in my opinion, should make him the winner in the competition. I'm surprised by your comment that Beck inarguably has the better arm. I would say a strong majority would agree that Grossman has the far superior arm. Speaking of reporters, when they were still giving play by play type reports on practice, Beck routinely missed badly on deep throws. He hit against Baltimore to Armstrong then missed by about 7-10 yards over Davis and out of bounds. I think that pretty well sums up Beck's downfield passing game. I think Beck is alright at moving the chains and has better mobility around the pocket but I think Grossman makes the offense more potent and able to pick up yards in big chunks and make the big play.

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Atlanta Skins Fan

Atlanta Skins Fan

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Posted
With Beck, potential might be not be the operative work, the operative expression IMO is upside. Few would argue that Beck doesn't have more speed and the better arm. Grossman on the other hand has the experience advantage.

Skinsinparadise,

Among those favoring Beck, I think you generally do a good job trying to remain open-minded. You've also done a good job in some posts presenting the case, in their words, that the Shanahans really do (or did) believe in Beck. You've impressed me by freshening your perspective by rewatching Grossman's Jacksonville and Giants games, here by pointing out what the Giants did to contain Grossman with overload pressure on the blind side and keeping hands up to bat down balls. I appreciate the effort you put into trying to illuminate the comparison between Beck and Grossman with actual evidence in greater portion than opinion, which is the inverse of most posts on message boards.

For my part I will admit to bias, but do try to post new threads with real evidence to make my case. I'd like to believe that my bias comes from the evidence I've seen, and I tend not to post unless I have a clear view of a situation and believe that this clear view is currently a minority opinion.

Now to my point: I think the greatest blind spot that you and other Beck fans have in this debate is attributing Grossman's superior play to his "experience." While certainly experience can be a positive, it is not necessarily so, and is not the most salient factor favoring Grossman. For example, Patrick Ramsey is now a very experienced quarterback, and no one would argue that Ramsey's "experience" is an argument that he should be an NFL starting QB.

When Beck fans point to Grossman's experience, they are implicitly making an argument for Beck instead of Grossman. The implicit argument is: "Grossman's superior plays come as a result of his greater experience. Once Beck has equal game experience, he will match Grossman for intangible qualities while adding his greater mobility, athleticism, snappy arm and great placement on short passes leading to high YAC. With greater experience, Beck will make better and faster reads, and will have more confidence challenging coverage. With greater experience with the receivers, his long passing will be more accurate."

With all due respect, I think this is mostly B.S. This is why I posted the "Cut Beck. Keep Clemens." thread. With only one month "experience" in the system, Clemens is demonstrating these qualities that Beck clearly lacks. Those qualities are mostly abilities and not "wisdom" from experience.

Cognitive aptitude in quarterbacks

Let me make a further (and controversial) argument. I think the qualities of quick reads and quick decisions are cognitively very similar to advanced mathematics. As you may be aware, advanced mathematics is a young man's game. The most powerful minds in mathematics tend to be under 25 years old. Years ago I made the argument that Joe Gibbs II was too old to be an effective offensive coordinator, because aging brains lack the plasticity required for strategic advantage at the fastest possible speeds.

I think an NFL quarterback on a given play faces three basic tests:

  1. Defining the problem
  2. Computing the solution
  3. Delivering the football

"Defining the problem" benefits greatly from experience. Generally this is knowing the playbook, knowing NFL defenses, factoring the game situation (down and distance, score, clock), factoring the risk/reward ratio (risk of INT or incompletion vs reward of downfield passing). On a broader level, it's understanding the offensive system itself. For example, the importance of timing and rhythm in Kyle Shanahan's passing attack, and the importance of throwing precisely to spots at a precise time, rather than looking for an open receiver and trying to throw to him.

"Computing the solution" is strictly aptitude. This is your young mathematician. The reason that inexperienced QBs look stupid isn't typically aptitude, but rather their lack of experience in definining the problem in advance. We can say that Grossman has historically had high aptitude for computing solutions (making quick reads and decisions), but has made poor decisions by framing the problem poorly (defining the problem). Therefore it is Grossman who gets better with experience, by limiting mistakes and following Kyle Shanhan's system more closely.

"Delivering the football" is the throw. It's physical aptitude. Mobility can help, but sometimes mobility is a distraction. Quick release and high accuracy are essential. Throwing hard can be useful, but so also is touch, arc and ball placement relative to the defender. I give Grossman a slight edge in delivering the football, mainly because I grade his weakest range only a "C" (the deep out), while I give Beck an "F" for deep passing over 30 yards. Beck's extremely poor deep passing is a bigger problem than his snappy short passing is an advantage, in my opinion, because defenses will respond by shortening the field and making the entire field a "red zone" for Beck. As we've seen, Beck breaks down in the red zone, and the reason is the shorter field and how this changes defensive alignments and coverages.

In my opinion, Beck has never had Grossman's cognitive aptitude ("computing the problem") and this is not something that will get better with experience. Experience and the right system helps bull-headed, dominant, high-aptitude QBs play a smarter game. Think Elway in 1998-98, Vick in 2010, Favre in 2009, Theismann in 1983, McNabb in mid-career. All of these QBs got the "Grossman" tag at earlier points in their careers, yet managed to take their game to a higher level by playing within a system and benefitting from experience.

Similarly, experience and the right system combined with high cognitive aptitude can help a relatively weak-armed QB succeed in the NFL. Examples here include Montana, Brady, Gannon, Brad Johnson, all of whom are either NFL MVPs or Super Bowl winners (or both). All of these QBs were overlooked when they came to the NFL, due to their modest physical abilities. Consider their draft positions:

Despite being poorly valued by the NFL at draft time (even by the team drafting them), these players all developed relatively quickly. Brady won a Super Bowl in his second year. Montana won a Super Bowl in his third year. Johnson was a starter by his third year, posting an 89.4 QB rating. Gannon, one of the NFL's most notorious late bloomers, was still a full-time starter by his 4th year, and a winning starting QB in his 5th and 6th years. He would be 37 and on his 4th team by the time he won the NFL MVP, but his aptitude for the NFL was apparent early.

Cognitive aptitude ("game speed") does not come from experience. Players with slow game speed continue to have slow game speed (Ramsey, Campbell), even as they gain experience. The best that can be hoped for such players is to put them in a system that suits their slow game speed, which is what the Raiders seem to be doing with Campbell. (Campbell needs a run-first offense to open up midrange passing on play action.)

Grossman 2010-11 = Theismann 1981-82

In my view, Grossman right now is analogous to Joe Theismann in 1981-82. Previously Theismann had been regarded as a guy who tried too much to win games on his own, sometimes winning them and often losing them. Gibbs first tried to turn him into Fouts (which he wasn't), then shifted to a balanced attack with Riggins and Washington pacing the ground attack, balanced by Theismann throwing to Monk, Charlie Brown (1982-83), Washington and Terry Metcalf (1981).

Riggins is given a lot of credit for carrying the Redskins in those years, but this ignores a more important strategic shift. In 1981, two RBs (Washingon, Metcalf) combined for 118 catches, while the top 3 WRs (Monk, Seay, Thompson) caught only 110 passes. Joe Washington also outrushed Riggins in 1981.

In 1982, the two leading WRs (Monk, Brown) had more than twice the catches of the two leading RBs (Washington, Harmon). Riggins took over as the primary rusher.

In 1983, by far the best year on offense in this era, Riggins powered for an impressive 1376 yards on the ground, while Charlie Brown caught 78 passes for 1,278 yards, a 15.7 average. This was 2 TE, single back, 2 WR power football, able to gash a team with power on the ground or take them deep with play-action passing.

My point in this history is that the invisible factor was Theismann, playing within a system and throwing midrange and deep passes to WRs with confidence and accuracy. The midrange and deep passing opened up the ground game, and the ground game opened up the deep and midrange passing. Theismann went from borderline NFL starter (1980-81) to NFL MVP (1983).

Throwing to RBs doesn't work in the NFL as a lead strategy. It's the third fiddle in the orchestra. We can say about Beck, "he's got the best dang third fiddle out there," and this doesn't really mean anything. Quarterbacking in the NFL means throwing completions to wide receivers for first downs and touchdowns, while stretching the field vertically. That's fundamenally aptitude: cognitive aptitude combined with physical aptitude. Experience helps cut down on mistakes (INTs) and helps QBs learn to play within a given system. Experience does not create aptitude.

Grossman's edge is cognitive aptitude at game speed. His weakness is experience. More games will help Grossman and hurt Beck. Grossman will cut down on mistakes (as he's already doing), while more games will give defensive coordinators more opportunities to recognize Beck's cognitive and physical aptitude limitations, and take more decisive advantage. In my opinion.

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GWinSkins83

GWinSkins83

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You're right, but I never really argued about practices. If the practices are about even, that only confirms my comments that in the games, Grossman has looked better, which in my opinion, should make him the winner in the competition. I'm surprised by your comment that Beck inarguably has the better arm. I would say a strong majority would agree that Grossman has the far superior arm. Speaking of reporters, when they were still giving play by play type reports on practice, Beck routinely missed badly on deep throws. He hit against Baltimore to Armstrong then missed by about 7-10 yards over Davis and out of bounds. I think that pretty well sums up Beck's downfield passing game. I think Beck is alright at moving the chains and has better mobility around the pocket but I think Grossman makes the offense more potent and able to pick up yards in big chunks and make the big play.

Grossman doesnt have a stronger arm even redskin players say Beck has the stronger arm as Grossman.

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addicted

addicted

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RT @JasonLaCanfora: Rex Grossman will start for the Redskins on Sunday. Decision was made over the weekend.

It's the right decision to make, never doubted that for a second

Now all you Beck Bandwagoners please step up on the Rex Express and buckle up

It's going to be a wild ride

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