Why John Beck is Likely to Win the Job

[MartinC]

Rex seems faster to me. More speed.

I'll have to go back and watch some of the games and look specifically for how the QBs move. I agree with Oldfans assessment that the more athletic QB should be the pick, but I wonder if Beck is the better athlete.

There is no question Beck moves much better than Rex. Rex is not a statue but he is also not a mobile guy.

However to balance that Rex does tend to get the ball out of his hands quicker at the top of his drop - you sometimes see Beck hesitate after his back foot hits when in the same situation Rex fires right on rythym. That's just a greater comfort with the system and more starting experience IMO.

[tiger187126]

There is no question Beck moves much better than Rex. Rex is not a statue but he is also not a mobile guy.

However to balance that Rex does tend to get the ball out of his hands quicker at the top of his drop - you sometimes see Beck hesitate after his back foot hits when in the same situation Rex fires right on rythym. That's just a greater comfort with the system and more starting experience IMO.

one of the bonus' of increased velocity is you don't always have to be on time.even though ASF will tell you that increased velocity is a bad thing, i mean look how it worked out for some chump named favre, it saves your bacon when you're late with a read.

[MartinC]

one of the bonus' of increased velocity is you don't always have to be on time.even though ASF will tell you that increased velocity is a bad thing, i mean look how it worked out for some chump named favre, it saves your bacon when you're late with a read.

Being on time and having better velocity is even better. Throwing late and trusting your arm gets even the best in trouble.

My view is that if Beck starts there will be some negative plays early in the year caused by his inexperience as a starter and in this offense. Kyle might not have the full playbook at his disposal the way he would have if Rex started. However as the season goes on I think Beck will improve week by week and by the end of the year we could have a heck of a QB.

[RandyHolt]

I think Beck will be the starter for game 1. Let's see what the guy can do. FOTMI, we have a close QB competition. If one should stumble, I want Shanahan to have no hesitation to switch QB's. And I do think he will use both a lot this year.

I think the key will be how the defense plays Beck. I think they will stack the box and play tight man, and get after Beck. The Skins are about the only team I watch that doesnt go after noob QB's so I expect heat. They should force Beck to throw deep to beat them. You could see last game the Shanahans trying to get teams to game plan for it. They will not just yet. If JB can beat the defense geared up to get after him, his mobility will probably be important.

Rex has seen that all out attack and hung tough. Barely, but he has survived. He handles pressure fairly well, he just makes that predictable occasional bonehead read or throw. Beck, the jury is out, and I am psyched to see out the verdict. Hail.

[Oldfan]

Being on time and having better velocity is even better. Throwing late and trusting your arm gets even the best in trouble.

My view is that if Beck starts there will be some negative plays early in the year caused by his inexperience as a starter and in this offense. Kyle might not have the full playbook at his disposal the way he would have if Rex started. However as the season goes on I think Beck will improve week by week and by the end of the year we could have a heck of a QB.

I mostly agree -- except that I don't think that Kyle can use the whole playbook with Grossman since, like Shaub, he just doesn't move well enough and throw well enough on the move. His forte is throwing from the shotgun or from five step drops.

[tiger187126]

Being on time and having better velocity is even better. Throwing late and trusting your arm gets even the best in trouble.

My view is that if Beck starts there will be some negative plays early in the year caused by his inexperience as a starter and in this offense. Kyle might not have the full playbook at his disposal the way he would have if Rex started. However as the season goes on I think Beck will improve week by week and by the end of the year we could have a heck of a QB.

and that's what i'd prefer. to get better at the most important position on the field as the year goes on instead of staying stagnant at a mediocre level.

it's funny you say that about the playbook though, because i think it's tailored for rex as well. after the first week of mostly screens and short passes it seemed like he opened it up for beck and had him take some shots. i haven't really seen that play call for grossman this preseason. as a lot of people have figured out, grossman likes to throw between the hashes and that's just prime INT from a guy you never saw territory. then of course we know grossman would never throw an errant INT over the middle....

[illone]

Wow, I don't think you could have described my feelings on this one more perfectly---If you were to switch the names around.

I literally feel the exact opposite way.

Me too. The offense just seems to have more rhythm when Grossman is out there. I do like Beck's mobility, but it's not like Grossman is a statue back there.

Still standing by Grossman as the week 1 starter. It'd take a lot for the Tampa game to change my mind.

[bird_1972]

.The bottom line: An athletic, mobile QB in the Shanahan offense permits the offense to be run at its full potential and makes the O-line’s pass protection job easier. That’s why John Beck is a better fit for the Shanahan offense than Rex Grossman and why he’s likely to win the job.

Arguments for and against both QBs often start with mining data on how Mike Shanahan's prior QBs had fared. Drawing comparisons between those situations and the current one are subject to one major flaw: Mike isn't running the offense. His son is.

To my knowledge (and I don't claim to be and Xs and Os guy at all), is that Shaub is NOT very mobile at all. That would be the paradigm I would think we should go with. Remember that Grossman was brought in primarily due to his proficiency in Kyle's offensive scheme.

We should perhaps analyse the current QB situation through that lens and not based on what Mike did with Elway, Plummer, and Cutler since I suspect that is a very different offensive system.

[JaxJoe]

I don't know what if any plan Mike has for drafting a QB. But, the immediate advantage of John Beck is that he enables the coaches to evaluate other players. For example, the rollout deep pass to Stallworth that was intercepted showed the value of a Brandon Marshall type receiver in this scheme. Marshall in Denver's 2008 offense would probably have caught that pass or would have drawn an interference call on the corner.

That's exactly what I meant by 'validates' the system. So that the system can continuously improve: better with Beck than Grossman in my opinion. I do believe that Shanahan will draft his QB either 2012 or 13. I say this because of the Jake Plummer era in Denver which he was a brief place-holder for when Shanahan drafted Cutler. And look how quickly Jake was demoted then let-go despite his well-played playoff season the year before. If I got my facts straight.

[SlkyCaramel]

I really do not want Grossman to start against the Giants, particularly not after looking at last season's game that he started against the Giants. They know how to beat him and we were lucky that his 1 interception and 2 fumbles did not turn into more points (not to mention the numerous ball that were batted in the air that could have easily become INTs). I realize our offensive line situation last year was particularly atrocious, and we actually only lost by three, but we still lost.

He was 26/44 for 336 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 2 Fumbles (Both Lost), 2 Sacks

While, yes, he did throw 2 TDs he also gave up the ball 3 times. I just do not feel comfortable with Rex Grossman as our QB, and I hate feeling like I have to hold my breath whenever he is under center.

It's so odd that people say Rex threw 7 TDS and only had 4 INTs in the games he played last year and therefore he is showing signs that he isn't the same inconsistent 50/50 Rex, when they fail to mention that in those three games he started, he also lost 3 fumbles. Which means essentially he again gave up the ball 7 times and threw 7 TDs, same 50/50 inconsistent Rex IMO.

I will give him credit for playing well this preseason, but again I don't feel comfortable with him as our starting QB and I think the Rex that we have seen all these years is as good as it will get.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

I mostly agree -- except that I don't think that Kyle can use the whole playbook with Grossman since, like Shaub, he just doesn't move well enough and throw well enough on the move. His forte is throwing from the shotgun or from five step drops.

Play-action dropback gives the QB more passing targets than does play-action rollout / bootleg.

You see the problem with the rollout when Beck is playing. The misses deep left were on rollouts left. By rolling left, Beck had fewer targets to choose among. Those deep receivers were covered the whole way.

Beck's sack came on a rollout right. His targets were apparently covered (with holding help). He took an unnecessary sack.

You are fond of saying that Beck's mobility gives Shanahan more options. I think it gives him "different" options, and the difference is not a net positive. Beck is far worse from the pocket than Grossman, but probably better on the rollout. (Grossman can certainly roll out just fine, but he's no threat to run.) They're both strong from the gun.

So, from this angle, the question is which is more important: throwing from the pocket, or throwing from the rollout? I'd argue throwing from the pocket. The bootleg should be used as a change of pace, while the pocket is standard for good reason. The best protection and the most receiver targets, throwing from the center of the formation.

Beck has rarely looked comfortable throwing from the pocket. He's often jumpy, late on reads, and less accurate. Until he masters throwing from the pocket, he's a good backup.

I think the problem frankly is physical courage. I'm not criticizing him personally, because I'd be scared ****less throwing from the pocket in an NFL game. But, the great QBs master this problem and somehow hang tough in the pocket.

Grossman has that courage and confidence in the pocket. Beck, not so much. That's a hard thing to change, IMO. Possible? Yes. Likely? Not in my view.

[bird_1972]

Beck has rarely looked comfortable throwing from the pocket. He's often jumpy, late on reads, and less accurate. Until he masters throwing from the pocket, he's a good backup.

I think the problem frankly is physical courage. I'm not criticizing him personally, because I'd be scared ****less throwing from the pocket in an NFL game. But, the great QBs master this problem and somehow hang tough in the pocket.

Grossman has that courage and confidence in the pocket. Beck, not so much. That's a hard thing to change, IMO. Possible? Yes. Likely? Not in my view.

Again, I'm no expert but I have anecdotally noticed Grossman's willingness to hang in the pocket to deliver a pass at the last possible moment before getting hit. It was admirable and a trait I haven't seen in a Redskins QB in a long time. I don't get the sense that he has great pocket presence beyond that, though. In other words, he doesn't seem to move around in the pocket effectively as the D line is closing in on him nor does he appear to step up into the pocket much either.

Please correct me if I'm wrong.

(I haven't seen enough of Beck to comment either way on his pocket game)

[Going Commando]

Agreed on all points.

I also believe they Shanahan's believe that Beck is only scratching his pro potential, and the Grosman is the more "developed" QB. I quote developed because I mean he is more set in his ways, more immaleable. Beck both has room and desire to improve, andI I think the Shanahan's are valuing that.

Ditto for me except I don't know about Grossman's desire to improve being lesser than Beck's. I like Rex's mentality as a worker and professional. I just think he's not as talented as Beck is and has a penchant for turnovers.

But regarding the OP, I agreed with every part of it except the bit about Matt Schaub lacking mobility. He gets a bum rap for being a statue but he's actually really good at running that boot action passing game in Houston. He may not be fast or agile like a Jay Cutler or Donovan McNabb. But he runs those particular plays very well. I think he's just mastered the footwork on them. He won't pick up positive yards for you on the ground, but he doesn't limit your ability to move pockets.

I think the talk about giving Grossman the starting job is only temporary. I think Beck has been the planned long term starter ever since it was clear that McNabb wasn't going to work out here. So far he's done nothing to suggest he shouldn't be.

The ZBS is such a thing of beauty in its deadly simplicity IMO.

The spread passing offense's goal is to force defenses to cover the entire field. The ZBS strikes me as the running game equivalent, forcing defenses to defend most of the line of scrimmage.

When you've got a running game that consistently produces good leverage situations (like we seem to have now), you'll get the overflow you need to run that deadly boot action. Then your athletic QB will get into the open field without his lines of sight blocked, only have to read half the field, and deliver an accurate throw to a receiver who is probably open or single covered with maybe only one or two defenders in his general area. The hard part is sprinting to position and quickly setting up for an accurate and well timed throw. NFL QBs seem to be really good at doing this despite the degree of difficulty and it amazes me.

I think you're absolutely right OF, that Beck in particular would thrive running these plays.

[Oldfan]

Arguments for and against both QBs often start with mining data on how Mike Shanahan's prior QBs had fared. Drawing comparisons between those situations and the current one are subject to one major flaw: Mike isn't running the offense. His son is.

To my knowledge (and I don't claim to be and Xs and Os guy at all), is that Shaub is NOT very mobile at all. That would be the paradigm I would think we should go with. Remember that Grossman was brought in primarily due to his proficiency in Kyle's offensive scheme.

We should perhaps analyse the current QB situation through that lens and not based on what Mike did with Elway, Plummer, and Cutler since I suspect that is a very different offensive system.

Kyle doesn't have an offensive scheme. Gary Kubiak ran the Mike Shanahan scheme in Houston. Kyle ran that scheme at Kubiak's direction.

The playcalling in Houston had to be modified because Matt Schaub isn't mobile enough to run it as designed, but there isn't a reason in the world that our scheme has to be limited by the game plan Kyle used for Matt Schaub.

The Zone Stretch is still the signature play; and the boot off the Stretch is a no-brainer strategy call if you have a mobile QB who throws well on the move.

I think Kyle most likely added some refinements to the scheme, but this is Mike's team and it's his offense.

[darrelgreenie]

Compare that to Rex going against the Steelers' 1's and then the Ravens' 1's. Rex wins this comparison hands down.

Well if you're gonna throw out the comparison of personnel match ups you should first be accurate.

In the Steelers game Rex played 1s vs 1s then played our 1s vs their 2s.

In the Ravens game both Rex and Beck played against the Ravens 1s.

Also if you compare the time Beck and Rex played with the second units our 2s vs their 2s Beck has been better.

Even if you look at QBR for preseason Beck is slighty ahead of Rex.

I just do not see how Beck has "won" the job based on the time he has been given with the 1's. Of the two, it appears Rex is being prepped to start and not Beck.

No one here is claiming the Beck has aleeady "won" the job; and neither is being "prepped" to start b/c its a true open competition.

If Shanahan does tap Beck as his opening day starter, it would be a huge upset in my opinion and a very big leap of faith. Beck will go into that game having faced a 1st string defense maybe a total of 5 or 6 series (assuming he starts the Tampa game and depending on how long the Bucs keep in their 1's). Again, not exactly the textbook way you prep an inexperienced QB for the regular season.

I wouldn't describe it as a leap of faith, although that notion does fit.

I would describe a decision to go with Beck as Mike/Kyle trusting in talent.

Beck was scheduled to start the 1st preseason game if not for injury; but I agree that this not the ideal way to 'prep' an inexperienced QB.

But that's what happens when there's an open competition; the QBs share 1st reps.

[sportjunkie07]

the writing is on the wall. Beck will start against the Giants. it takes an extremely weird, almost conspiracy-minded reading of events to believe Rex has the advantage.

i dont believe so at all. rex is the incumbent starter, that alone means it doesnt take a conspiracy for him to start.

.

The bottom line: An athletic, mobile QB in the Shanahan offense permits the offense to be run at its full potential and makes the O-line’s pass protection job easier. That’s why John Beck is a better fit for the Shanahan offense than Rex Grossman and why he’s likely to win the job.

i dont have a dog in this fight.. i will be happy to watch either qb and i could see a case being made for either qb to start.

oldfan, your OP makes a lot of sense. does Beck's style and mobility makes him better suited to run this scheme? most likely, yes. in time, could beck become much more dangerous than rex in this system? probably so.

my disagreement with beck starting, however, is two fold...

1.) Rex is better at the moment. this isnt a fact, its based on my observations. Rex seems more comfortable in the system and knows how to stretch the field with the pass. he played fantastic versus the steelers and very well against the ravens. the 2 minute drive versus the ravens was really good.

there is a lot to like with beck. he has looked good, his accuracy on short/intermediate routes is great. he has great character, and his interviews are about as good as you can expect from your qb. however, i am still not sold on him being better than Rex. beck has faced imo, much weaker competition so far. i dont know if he can effectively run a 2 minute drill in this offense. can beck surive on his bread-and-butter rollouts? and will our running game have to be elite every game for that play to be effective? i still have questions about beck, but i know what i get from rex, and beck has not shown (at least to me), that he is better than what we get from Rex.

2.) we will be drafting a qb next year. so is it really necessary to allow beck to mature for a year and a half in this system ?

i think rex should start, and will start, because he is currently the better qb. beck may be better than rex in time, but when we get to that point, we will be starting our rookie qb anyways.

The offense feels like it is capable of more when he is under center. The potential to score on any given play feels truly possible. With Grossman you get the feeling it will always have to be a slow methodical drive which usually means having to convert a ton of 3rd downs.

i have a completely opposite point of view.

I dont agree with you with the Offense look crisper overall with Grossman in there. For one Beck has a better completion and averages more yard pre ATT. Also it seem all the big runs is when Beck is in there which goes to what OLDFAN points too with the stretch play. Im pretty sure the offense adverage more yards per play with Beck in there. Also just because it looks more crisper shouldnt get the nod. Which one has had more scoring results?

does the offense average more yards per play with Beck in there? maybe it has, but its too small of a sample size. over time, i would expect rex to have the highest yards per play while beck has a better completion percentage. also, i think rex has had more scoring drives, especially if you count the 2 missed field goals by shayne graham.

bottom line, to be a good team in this league, you have to have a qb that can beat the opposing team's defense. when the game is coming down to the line and youve gotta score, your qb either has to impose his will on the defense (see elite qb's) or you have to have a very good supporting staff on offense.

i think we have, at best, a slightly above average supporting cast on offense (rb's, te, oline, wr). but i dont think thats going to be enough to win versus most teams. rex has shown that at times, he can be elite. he did what he wanted to do versus the ravens when he was running the 2 minute drill. that is the kind of quarterbacking that beats teams. i have not seen that from beck.

My biggest problem with Grossman is his mechanics. He thinks he can muscle the ball with his arm and doesn't really care about his feet and which leg he's throwing off of. In a nutshell, his gift is his curse, he relies too much on his arm strength and that's why he's prone to INT's. I also don't really like Grossmans pocket awareness. There are times when he's so zoned in on the WR that he's oblivious to the backside pressure, and typically with Rex, this means fumble.

Beck, he's not going to light it up down field, but I think he's good enough to connect deep when need be. I have yet to see him throw off the wrong foot or make a horribly risky throw, but I haven't had the luxury of watching every game either. Beck seems to feel pressure well and doesn't hold on to the ball too long, which hopefully means less sacks.

i agree on Rex's mechanics.. he doesnt seem to care where his feet are when he throws the ball. honestly though, im not sure it matters. his picks arent usually because his feet werent set, causing an innaccurate throw. they just seem to be really horrible decisions.

Rex is currently better at pocket presence. there have been a few times in preseason where Beck has held on the ball too long when he clearly had a chance to throw it away... Beck needs to work on that.

How has Rex won hands down lol? Who has the better passing stats? Who while in there the offense been in scoring drives? Potential is what he has more then Grossman. He hasnt played in but 4 games he can improve. For one Beck went on a missionarybefore college so career wise he is still young to the game. That is a fact. Yeah he is 30 years old but he is young in football terms because of he started later than most. Against the 1st teamers he has had success. I mean no one can dispute that no matter how you cut it. I don't get this Rex love I mean yeah he show greatness but you know he will have games where you will get 3 turnovers. People want to go the Bears but we are not the Bears and our division is harder than those team when he was playing. I'm sorry but you are really hoping for the best when you go Rex way. Because we KNOW he will have stretches when he is a turnover machine. I mean you people act like this dude is even top 25 in the league of QBs and he's not.

you underrate rex, no he's not elite. he is in fact, sometimes elite, sometimes horrible. but he is top 25... id venture to say, that he is near eli manning's level.. lots of production, but lots of mistakes.

[JaxJoe]

Play-action dropback gives the QB more passing targets than does play-action rollout / bootleg.

So, from this angle, the question is which is more important: throwing from the pocket, or throwing from the rollout? I'd argue throwing from the pocket. The bootleg should be used as a change of pace, while the pocket is standard for good reason. The best protection and the most receiver targets, throwing from the center of the formation.

Beck has rarely looked comfortable throwing from the pocket. He's often jumpy, late on reads, and less accurate. Until he masters throwing from the pocket, he's a good backup.

I agree, ASF that Beck has looked jumpy when in the pocket. And I agree about the bootleg being a change-of-pace option. But most of Shanahan's roll-outs are not boot-legs. Just a pocket that slides left or right. And its clear (to me at least) that they have Beck running more of these plays than Grossman.

But what I don't agree with is your comment that Beck is "late on reads and less accurate." 74% accuracy? And, has a higher YPC? And higher 3rd down conversion percent (per attempt) than Grossman? doesn't bode well to your point that Beck is less accurate. At least when comparing him to Grossman. Right now, I'm pretty giddy about both QBs, to be honest. I do 'feel' that Grossman should play against Giants only because he is more seasoned. Although one game does not make a season, I feel this Giants game is a perfect opportunity to punch them in the proverbial nose. And, I am a bit nervous handing the reins to a 30 yr old rookie. But I do believe that Beck should be the eventual season QB to improve himself, but ore importantly, improve the system.

Edit: I do love your posts and the analytical means of promoting your opinion. Love the usage of Happy vs Biff to gain the affection of their father, Shanahan! Where's the gas pipe when we start 2-6!!!

[Oldfan]

...Beck has rarely looked comfortable throwing from the pocket. He's often jumpy, late on reads, and less accurate. Until he masters throwing from the pocket, he's a good backup.

I think the problem frankly is physical courage. I'm not criticizing him personally, because I'd be scared ****less throwing from the pocket in an NFL game. But, the great QBs master this problem and somehow hang tough in the pocket.

Grossman has that courage and confidence in the pocket. Beck, not so much. That's a hard thing to change, IMO. Possible? Yes. Likely? Not in my view.

If Rex has great pocket presence as you claim, how do you explain the Good Rex, Bad Rex reputation he has acquired? His QBRs for the 16-games he started in 2006 were very high or very low and not much in between.

I don't know how that can be explained except that Rex crumbles and makes terrible decisions when pressured.

[darrelgreenie]

I've had fun with my threads on this topic, but here's my honest opinion

Your other opinions were less then honest?

[CommDownMan]

Funny thing is that they will be dragging this out until after we receive the kick and take the field against the Giants. I still think they will go with Grossman though. Shanahan isn't one to build players up that much in the media unless he has a motive.

I'm wondering if it will even end then. What stops Shanny from changing it during the games or week to week? He does like to play mind games and both guys have their own strengths/weakness.

[Mahons21]

If Rex has great pocket presence as you claim, how do you explain the Good Rex, Bad Rex reputation he has acquired? His QBRs for the 16-games he started in 2006 were very high or very low and not much in between.

He acquired that reputation in CHI, and if you feel Beck's time in MIA is irrelevant than it's hypocritical to go out and scrutinize Rex in CHI.

Did you see any good Rex/bad Rex since he's been in WSH, in this scheme, with descent NFL receivers? Or did you see a 100% fumble lost ratio, and 4 interceptions and not take the time to remember their context.

I don't know how that can be explained except that Rex crumbles and makes terrible decisions when pressured.

Rex has looked better than Beck when being pressured.

[Oldfan]

SJ07 ~ 1.) Rex is better at the moment. this isnt a fact, its based on my observations.

I doubt it, but even if you are right, your point shouldn’t be relevant. Winning the Giants game should not be the goal since the only way John Beck can gain experience and surpass Rex in knowledge of the scheme is to play.

In Mike’s shoes, my goal would be to find my starting QB for the next six or seven years.

2.) we will be drafting a qb next year. so is it really necessary to allow beck to mature for a year and a half in this system ?

How did you conclude that we will be drafting a QB next year?

[bird_1972]

but this is Mike's team and it's his offense[/b].

But is it, really?

Many here have insisted that Kyle is the one who's offense is being run and that Mike is giving him some free reign to do this. Again, I thought this was why Rex was brought in (since he was Shaub's backup in Houston and knew Kyle's system).

[Drew_Fl]

Oldfan i pretty much agree with everything you said and have felt even before I read this thread that Beck's mobility gives him a much larger edge then we probably believe. This is how QB threads should be.

[Oldfan]

He acquired that reputation in CHI, and if you feel Beck's time in MIA is irrelevant than it's hypocritical to go out and scrutinize Rex in CHI.

Disagree. Rex's Chicago performance is a 16-game sample with a better team.

Did you see any good Rex/bad Rex since he's been in WSH, in this scheme, with descent NFL receivers? Or did you see a 100% fumble lost ratio, and 4 interceptions and not take the time to remember their context.

Loaded question.

I saw him play poorly and I saw him play extremely well in a small sample of starts.

---------- Post added August-29th-2011 at 11:34 AM ----------

[/color]

Oldfan i pretty much agree with everything you said and have felt even before I read this thread that Beck's mobility gives him a much larger edge then we probably believe. This is how QB threads should be.

Thanks, Drew.