Why John Beck is Likely to Win the Job

[Oldfan]

..My argument is based solely on visual evidence, if anyone can show me where I'm wrong I'd love to see. So far though, there's no evidence of a backside DE/OLB staying at home more for Beck any more than Grossman.

Your "visual evidence" on a few plays would not counter the argument that, over the course of a season, Beck's running of the Stretch Boot would likely help open up the backside cut.

Nor is their evidence of one QB dealing significantly better with pressure than the other.

I do not believe that you, or anyone else, is capable of sensing reaction to pressure when shown video of individual football plays.

[sportjunkie07]

Yes. The QB hands off the ball only, but I daresay the the added threat a more mobile QB provides (ie, Beck) contributes a great degree to the running game. The average YPC almost DOUBLES when Beck is at the helm, vs Grossman.

if you want to argue that beck is the better qb, fine. but attributing the running games success to beck is completely ridiculous. this is why:

too small of a sample size, different rb's and oline combinations have been used with each qb, different quality of competition, different playcalling goals, etc. lets break down the 3 biggest runs while beck was under the helm:

hightower's 58 yarder vs. the colts- beck had not yet thrown a pass or scrambled. this run cannot be attributed to him.

helu's 51 yard run vs the colts -beck hadnt shown off his mobility or stretched the field (his longest to that point was a 19 yarder to gaffney) to that point. it was the colts lack of tackling combined with a great sideline run by helu that made that play happen.

hightower's 37 yard TD run vs. the ravens - here is mahons review of it.

b.) There was no substantial or visible difference in which the weakside OLB played with Beck in the game. In fact Jarret Johnson is actually cheating up on Tim Hightower's big run, that play wasn't broken open because of a QB it was broken up because everybody and I mean everybody did a great job blocking. Logan Paulsen's backside block on Jarret Johnson isn't getting nearly enough credit, being overshadowed by the far more visually impressive laying of wood that is delivered to Ray Lewis by Trent.

this is the bulk of the running game yardage (63%) while under beck. and as you can see it is not attributable to him. therefore, one cant logically say that beck's style causes the run game to be better.

[Southtown]

I seem to recall Shannahan rotating QBs in Denver at one point - every other play.

I think that was Dan Reeves rotating Tommy Maddox and Herman Moore's brother (forget his name) for a few games while Elway was hurt...though I may be mistaken.

[Stadium-Armory]

Yea, maybe you're right. It might have been Reeves.

[BADKCLARK]

Okay. No more stats, since I'm not allowed. ;-)

A mobile QB is able to stretch the field Horizontally. This, in turn opens up holes vertically. I've seen this in action over many years. Perhaps.....just perhaps this is why there have been big gain plays when Beck has been in. Having watched all the games, there is no doubt in my mind that Beck is faster getting outside the tackles. To say this is not a threat is deceiving oneself. Beck has rushed for yards, but it's probably because he's not a threat at all.

I've seen how spread offenses work, and how they can stretch the field. This helps the running and passing games.

[Oldfan]

... one cant logically say that beck's style causes the run game to be better.

Based on preseason stats, we cant.

However, all we need are logical deductions and some knowledge of the game to conclude that Beck will pose a greater threat to defenses on the Stretch Boot which will put greater pressure on a backside defender which, in turn, will open up the backside cut for the RB more often over the course of a season.

[TheRookie]

I think it may be the case that, over time, Beck's rollout ability would be taken into account by opposing D's (e.g. keep LB, DE on backside contain as previously noted) which might open up a few things for the run game. At the same, I think it's too early to assume this has had any effect to date based on what's been said so far (sample size, reviewing game tape, etc.)

I think we can look at this as a potential positive for Beck in the "competition." It's not a solid check mark in his column, but something that, if you're coach, you might look at another possible benefit of putting him under center - just another dimension that might make defending this O a bit tougher.

[Pelado]

In my opinion it's not fair to to try and give Beck any credit for this rushing attack unless extremely microscopic. That doesn't do Tim Hightower or this offensive line/this offensive rushing scheme near enough credit. Holes are being opened for Hightower, and he's bursting through them running with a purpose. That's not because of John Beck, and in case you hadn't noticed Hightower has been doing just fine with Rex at QB.

Maybe the O-line run blocks better when Beck is in the huddle because he pumps them up with his "swag."

[Mahons21]

Your "visual evidence" on a few plays would not counter the argument that, over the course of a season, Beck's running of the Stretch Boot would likely help open up the backside cut.

I'm not saying it wouldn't, but at this moment there's no evidence of the impact John Beck may have. Over the course of a season that my change and the back-side LB/DE's we face off against may adjust, but at this present time there's no visual evidence of this. That's what I found, it's not a prediction as to what may happen over the course of a year, it's simply what I saw.

I do not believe that you, or anyone else, is capable of sensing reaction to pressure when shown video of individual football plays.

I wasn't judging necessarily their reaction as much as the outcome of plays in which either QB was blitzed.

Except on certain plays for example when Rex never saw the NB coming from his blindside, on this instance I pointed out he didn't react to any pressure, the visual evidence supports this logic, Rex doesn't move at all.

---------- Post added August-30th-2011 at 07:18 PM ----------

Maybe the O-line run blocks better when Beck is in the huddle because he pumps them up with his "swag."

That's a theory, don't know how you could prove it.

.

---------- Post added August-30th-2011 at 07:21 PM ----------

I think it may be the case that, over time, Beck's rollout ability would be taken into account by opposing D's (e.g. keep LB, DE on backside contain as previously noted) which might open up a few things for the run game. At the same, I think it's too early to assume this has had any effect to date based on what's been said so far (sample size, reviewing game tape, etc.)

I think we can look at this as a potential positive for Beck in the "competition." It's not a solid check mark in his column, but something that, if you're coach, you might look at another possible benefit of putting him under center - just another dimension that might make defending this O a bit tougher.

Put perfectly.

[Pelado]

That's a theory, don't know how you could prove it.

Why bother proving it when it's so easy to just assert it?

[darrelgreenie]

b.) As I've said there's no significant difference in the way the OLB plays with either QB in the game. But it must be taken into account again that Beck is a dual threat so the LB has more to think about when playing him off the bootleg.

I don't think you'll notice a difference in a small sample size because defenses aren't gameplanning.

If they were gameplanning then if there was a difference it would be evident.

But, if you recall our discussion from the Colts game re:Beck/bootleg?

Beck was able to pick up yards and 1st downs on the boot-keep because the backside DE and OLB were playing pass coverage.

The Colts had no answer for Beck attacking the edge and would have been forced to defend the boot-keep differently or concede the edge 5-10+ yards every time Beck would boot.

In my opinion it's not fair to to try and give Beck any credit for this rushing attack unless extremely microscopic. That doesn't do Tim Hightower or this offensive line/this offensive rushing scheme near enough credit. Holes are being opened for Hightower, and he's bursting through them running with a purpose. That's not because of John Beck, and in case you hadn't noticed Hightower has been doing just fine with Rex at QB.

I haven't watched the game again with a focus on backside contain.

I agree its not fair to give Beck credit for Hightowers runs, at least not yet.

But, its hard to argue against the concept that QBs that threaten the edge on a boot-keep force backside to play 'honest' and not crash down the line.

[sportjunkie07]

I think it may be the case that, over time, Beck's rollout ability would be taken into account by opposing D's (e.g. keep LB, DE on backside contain as previously noted) which might open up a few things for the run game. At the same, I think it's too early to assume this has had any effect to date based on what's been said so far (sample size, reviewing game tape, etc.)

I think we can look at this as a potential positive for Beck in the "competition." It's not a solid check mark in his column, but something that, if you're coach, you might look at another possible benefit of putting him under center - just another dimension that might make defending this O a bit tougher.

now this i agree with.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

That 80% accuracy you are claiming is deceptive. You haven't made actual predictions. Until you do that, you don't have anything impressive.

Actually I've made plenty of accurate predictions since 2005 relating to QBs, starting with the prediction on draft day that Campbell would bust. That's where the QB model started, with the 2005 draft.

Let's put the past aside and put something on the line for 2011. I predict that Rex Grossman will start against the Giants. You've predicted that John Beck will start the Giants.

How about a simple sig bet? If I'm right, your signature will read, "I really need to listen more to ASF. He knows a lot more about QBs than I do."

And I'll oblige the opposite, if you're right. The sig sticks through the 4th game of the season, regardless of what happens on the field. (The bet is about the starter for the Giants game.)

Based on all the public comments that the Shanahans have offered for Beck, you'd seem to be the favorite in this matchup. Are you game?

[TheItalianStallion]

Actually I've made plenty of accurate predictions since 2005 relating to QBs, starting with the prediction on draft day that Campbell would bust. That's where the QB model started, with the 2005 draft.

Just curious, what current QBs do you consider to be elite?

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

Just curious, what current QBs do you consider to be elite?

Brady, P. Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Rivers.

Then there's group of QBs who can "play at an elite level" but are somewhat scheme dependent or are limited in some way. That would include Schaub, Vick, Romo sits to pee, and maybe E. Manning, Freeman, Ryan and Flacco. This is the group that I think Grossman can join.

[Oldfan]

ASF ~ Actually I've made plenty of accurate predictions since 2005 relating to QBs, starting with the prediction on draft day that Campbell would bust. That's where the QB model started, with the 2005 draft.

I don’t doubt you called the shot on Campbell. So did I the first time I saw his sloppy mechanics.

You’re deceiving yourself if you think you can hit an 80% rate in actual predictions over any extended trial. You’re wasting your time.

You will hit better than 50% only because those QBs picked in the top 32 have already been scouted, so most of the QBs whose stats would qualify in your model have been eliminated for you.

How about a simple sig bet?

No deal. I think sigs are juvenile, so I would have more to lose than you do.

I’ve put my reputation (such as it is) on the line in the OP. If I’m wrong, this thread will be bumped and you can pile on with the rest of the herd.

[sportjunkie07]

Brady, P. Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Rivers.

Then there's group of QBs who can "play at an elite level" but are somewhat scheme dependent or are limited in some way. That would include Schaub, Vick, Romo sits to pee, and maybe E. Manning, Freeman, Ryan and Flacco. This is the group that I think Grossman can join.

i have to say, asf, i agree with you almost entirely with your view of qb and the stats you use to back them up.. now the whole conspiracy thing, i dont agree with, but i do think grossman will be the starter. earlier in this thread, i compared grossman to eli manning's 10' season. 4000 yards, 32 tds, and 25 ints... i already think rex can replicate that production, and i think there is a chance he does better than that barring injury.

[Oldfan]

Brady, P. Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Rivers.

Then there's group of QBs who can "play at an elite level" but are somewhat scheme dependent or are limited in some way. That would include Schaub, Vick, Romo sits to pee, and maybe E. Manning, Freeman, Ryan and Flacco. This is the group that I think Grossman can join.

All QBs are scheme and team dependent. Brady and Manning play in the two most QB-friendly schemes in the NFL. Neither has to move very much. Neither can throw on the move well. Both throw 60-70% of the time from the shotgun. Nearly all QBs have better numbers throwing from the gun.

You eliminate college QBs if they play in very friendly schemes. You called them gimmick offenses. Why don't you classify the Pats and Colts units as gimmick offenses?

You left off the two most talented QBs in the league: Jay Cutler and Matt Stafford and instead included Eli Manning, a lead-footed pocket passer who comes apart at the seams when under pressure.

Schaub, Ryan and Brady have almost the same skillset. You have Brady rated higher because he plays for a better team in a more friendly scheme.

[Newera]

I think Beck will be in this group in two years . . .

Brady, P. Manning, Brees, Rodgers, Roethlisberger, Rivers.

Because he wants to be.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

I don’t doubt you called the shot on Campbell. So did I the first time I saw his sloppy mechanics.

You’re deceiving yourself if you think you can hit an 80% rate in actual predictions over any extended trial. You’re wasting your time.

I've hit about 83% since 2005:

• Predicted busts / overrated: Campbell, Russell, Young, Sanchez, Clausen
  
• Predicted franchise QBs: Schaub (2006, pre-trade), Bradford, McCoy, Freeman, Romo sits to pee
  
• Incorrect predicted franchise QBs: Leinart, Quinn (since corrected by sophomore model)
  

Leinart remains my biggest miss by far. I still can't account for it. That said, I found it interesting that he got picked up by the Texans, the same team that picked up Grossman after initial failure. The last word on Leinart has yet to be written.

Looking at the 2011 draft, here are some open predictions:

• Predicted busts: Jake Locker
  
• Overrated / potential busts: Newton, Gabbert, Kaepernick, Mallett
  
• Underrated / potential franchise QB: McElroy
  

I was surprised to see Mallett drafted by the Patriots. That's an ideal situation for him, so he may outperform my prediction. Otherwise the early returns look good for my predictions, but it's way too early to draw any conclusions.

No deal. I think sigs are juvenile, so I would have more to lose than you do.

---------- Post added August-31st-2011 at 01:16 AM ----------

You left off the two most talented QBs in the league: Jay Cutler and Matt Stafford and instead included Eli Manning, a lead-footed pocket passer who comes apart at the seams when under pressure.

Actually I forgot about both of them. I've never bought into Cutler to the degree you have, and I was surprised to see him as successful as he became under Shanahan. His play for Chicago was more what I expected.

Stafford hasn't been healthy, and I haven't had much chance to see him play. I think I have no opinion at all on Stafford. FWIW, the sophomore model gives him a mediocre grade.

I've never liked Eli Manning as a QB, so I was reluctant to include him at all. However, he did win a Super Bowl, and he did so with one of the most astonishing plays in Super Bowl history, while beating Tom Brady. That merits consideration. However, if I were drafting QBs, Eli wouldn't make my top 10.

[Oldfan]

I've hit about 83% since 2005:

• Predicted busts / overrated: Campbell, Russell, Young, Sanchez, Clausen
  
• Predicted franchise QBs: Schaub (2006, pre-trade), Bradford, McCoy, Freeman, Romo sits to pee
  
• Incorrect predicted franchise QBs: Leinart, Quinn (since corrected by sophomore model)
  

You need to have an objective way of determining whether your predictions are correct in future years.

Campbell and Sanchez both have started more games than McCoy or Bradford.

[darrelgreenie]

His[Cutler] play for Chicago was more what I expected.

His play or his stats?

Its the same Cutler except with less talent around him and by less I mean a terrible OL, suspect offensive scheme (1st year not now) and limited receiving weapons yet they won their division and made it to the second round in the playoffs.

I watched quite a few Bears games and I was telling OF that I thought last year was Cutler's best year.

(Oddly enough the ESPN new total QBR supports this observation Cutler had 94.4 points in passing and scrambling which would put him top 5 in the league if it wasn't for sacks)

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

You need to have an objective way of determining whether your predictions are correct in future years.

For predicted busts / overrated picks: I think "dropped or demoted by the team who drafted the QB" is pretty adequate ... for compensation less than the original draft value, within 5 or 6 years of being drafted. Short of that, maybe a QB rating under 80.

It's hard to determine an absolute measure. For example, Campbell's QB rating got better each year, as the team got worse. But the team traded him for a future 4th rounder. The trade value and timing serves as absolute confirmation that he was considered a bust, league wide. Regardless of what he ever does for Oakland.

For predicted franchise QBs, I would think that a contract extension while remaining starter, with QB rating over 80, is reasonable confirmation of making it. Anyone cresting 90 QB passer rating during their first contract should safely be considered a franchise QB, typically. Freeman makes it on this basis. I'm expecting Bradford and McCoy to have a shot at that level in the coming season.

[darrelgreenie]

You left off the two most talented QBs in the league: Jay Cutler and Matt Stafford.

This would make for a good thread on its own.(rating the QBs then rating them based on talent)

I agree with you about Cutler but I would have Rodgers and Vick ahead of him.

And if we're counting rookies I would include Jake Locker and have him ahead of Stafford.

[Oldfan]

I'm not saying it wouldn't, but at this moment there's no evidence of the impact John Beck may have.

So, you'd like to limit this debate to preseason evidence and exclude logical deductions?