Why John Beck is Likely to Win the Job

[darrelgreenie]

I think fewer people consider Campbell a 'bust' then most believe.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

His play or his stats?

I saw Cutler last year in only two games, both awful. Redskins game and NFC Championship.

I'm sure that this colors my impressions.

[Oldfan]

This would make for a good thread on its own.(rating the QBs then rating them based on talent)

I agree with you about Cutler but I would have Rodgers and Vick ahead of him.

And if we're counting rookies I would include Jake Locker and have him ahead of Stafford.

I forgot about Vick.

I have it Vick, Cutler, Stafford, Rodgers... need to see more of Locker.

[Newera]

Like I said . . . John wants to be great . . .

http://espn.go.com/blog/nflnation/post/_/id/43451/what-the-redskins-see-in-john-beck

[Oldfan]

For predicted busts / overrated picks: I think "dropped or demoted by the team who drafted the QB" is pretty adequate ... for compensation less than the original draft value, within 5 or 6 years of being drafted. Short of that, maybe a QB rating under 80.

It's hard to determine an absolute measure. For example, Campbell's QB rating got better each year, as the team got worse. But the team traded him for a future 4th rounder. The trade value and timing serves as absolute confirmation that he was considered a bust, league wide. Regardless of what he ever does for Oakland.

For predicted franchise QBs, I would think that a contract extension while remaining starter, with QB rating over 80, is reasonable confirmation of making it. Anyone cresting 90 QB passer rating during their first contract should safely be considered a franchise QB, typically. Freeman makes it on this basis. I'm expecting Bradford and McCoy to have a shot at that level in the coming season.

Some QBs only live up to their top draft pick expectations after a move, so calling Campbell a bust if he shines in Oakland seems wrong. Would Rex still be a bust if he shines here?

I think Bradford's QBR was 72 last season, so he's a bust right now if you make the cut at 80.

I think Sanchez is a good QB in a lousy scheme.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

His play or his stats?

Its the same Cutler except with less talent around him and by less I mean a terrible OL, suspect offensive scheme (1st year not now) and limited receiving weapons yet they won their division and made it to the second round in the playoffs.

I watched quite a few Bears games and I was telling OF that I thought last year was Cutler's best year.

Hang on. Did you just make a reverse argument for Grossman?

You just said that last year was Cutler's best year. What changed? The offensive coordinator?

In his first year, you cite "a terrible OL, suspect offensive scheme (1st year not now) and limited receiving weapons." Ron Turner was offensive coodinator for the Bears from 2005-09, spanning all of Grossman's tenure and also Cutler's first year.

Cutler had a 76.8 QB rating in 2009 (under Turner) and an 86.3 QB rating in 2010 (under Martz). The Bears went from 7-9 (2009) to 11-5 (2010), with an NFC Championship appearance. During 2009, Cutler threw 26 INTs and 27 TDs, while fumbling 9 times.

So, let's compare:

Grossman / 2006 / Ron Turner:

• Prior years as NFL starter: 0
  
• Record: 13-3
  
• TDs: 23
  
• INTs: 20
  
• Fumbles: 8
  
• ATTs: 480
  
• Comp: 262
  
• QB rating: 73.9
  
• INT + fumble %: 5.8%
  
• Number of games with 100+ QB rating: 7
  
• Number of games with under 44 QB rating: 5
  

Cutler / 2009 / Ron Turner

• Prior years as NFL starter: 3
  
• Record: 7-9
  
• TDs: 26
  
• INTs: 27
  
• Fumbles: 9
  
• ATTs: 555
  
• Comp: 336
  
• QB rating: 76.8
  
• INT + fumble %: 6.5%
  
• Number of games with 100+ QB rating: 5
  
• Number of games with under 44 QB rating: 3
  

Looks to me like Cutler had a much worse year than Grossman, with the same coordinator.

Grossman did have two more bad games, but also had two more good games ... and finished 13-3.

So, how come Cutler gets a pass, and Grossman does not?

[Oldfan]

ASF ~ Looks to me like Cutler had a much worse year than Grossman, with the same coordinator.

Why did you choose an odd number like 44 QBR for the cutoff. Does that number favor Rex?

In the three years, 2006 to 2009, there would have been a 50% turnover in personnel. So, while it was the same team, it wasn't the same roster.

The 2006 team was 13-3 because of its strong defense, not because of Good Rex.

I don't know how Cutler's performance could have been "much worse" than Rex's since his QBR was higher.

[polywog999]

Some QBs only live up to their top draft pick expectations after a move, so calling Campbell a bust if he shines in Oakland seems wrong. Would Rex still be a bust if he shines here?

I think Bradford's QBR was 72 last season, so he's a bust right now if you make the cut at 80.

I think Sanchez is a good QB in a lousy scheme.

I don't think Campbell will ever be that successful in this league. With Campbell - it's mental. He can NOT throw to a spot. He has to throw to an open receiver.

John Beck needs to PROVE himself to the world. I'm not drinking the Beck-aid just yet - let's wait and see before we start voting him to the Pro-bowl.

[Pelado]

I don't think Campbell will ever be that successful in this league. With Campbell - it's mental. He can NOT throw to a spot. He has to throw to an open receiver.

John Beck needs to PROVE himself to the world. I'm not drinking the Beck-aid just yet - let's wait and see before we start voting him to the Pro-bowl.

Let's hurry and vote John Beck to the Pro-Bowl.

[polywog999]

Let's hurry and vote John Beck to the Pro-Bowl.

Damn it noob! Obey my commandments!

[TheREALJBird]

I've liked what i've seen in Beck so far, and there's no doubt in my mind he should get the starting nod. Even more so is what we haven't seen yet, he's a wild card of sorts which makes him an intriguing player. With Sexy Rexy we more or less already know what we're going to get.

[polywog999]

I've liked what i've seen in Beck so far, and there's no doubt in my mind he should get the starting nod. Even more so is what we haven't seen yet, he's a wild card of sorts which makes him an intriguing player. With Sexy Rexy we more or less already know what we're going to get.

I think Rex....like old Mark Rypin used to be....is only as good as his line. I mean, I can see Rex throwing six TD's in a game - or four int's...

[TheREALJBird]

I think Rex....like old Mark Rypin used to be....is only as good as his line. I mean, I can see Rex throwing six TD's in a game - or four int's...

I'm willing to say he'd get the latter before the former lol.

[polywog999]

I'm willing to say he'd get the latter before the former lol.

This would be the year for him to shine. He can do it - Beck will start, though.

Make no mistake - Beck has the tools.

When I was a boxer, sometimes I used to beat guys more talented, younger and quicker than me...they would just beat themselves, we called them "fancy Dan's." It's a whole different game when someone's up your ass trying to take your head off - it just plain rattles some fighters.

That being said, we shall see how Beck does with people trying to put the hurt on him.

[Oldfan]

I don't think Campbell will ever be that successful in this league. With Campbell - it's mental. He can NOT throw to a spot. He has to throw to an open receiver.

Nothing wrong with that. Spots can't catch anyway.

[polywog999]

Nothing wrong with that. Spots can't catch anyway.

I heard this from Vinny on the air. I have to agree - watch Campbell....he never throws the ball unless it's "safe." Hence the large number of check-downs.

[ouvan59]

I heard this from Vinny on the air. I have to agree - watch Campbell....he never throws the ball unless it's "safe." Hence the large number of check-downs.

I've been saying that for years. It's was maddening. It's also why there was almost no YAC on his passes. He would also never let his receivers make a play. He almost never threw a ball to a receiver on a fly unless he had a step on his defender.

[ArmchairRedskin]

Bucs To Rest Defense Against Washington

AUTHOR: Josh Hill

TAMPA — You could argue that they’ve earned it, you could also chalk it up to being the last game before it gets real. Whatever the reason, the Buccaneers will not play their defensive starters in Thursday’s preseason finale against the Washington Redskins.

http://thepewterplank.com/2011/08/31/bucs-to-rest-defense-against-washington/

So both Beck and Rex should be lighting up the scoreboard, right?

[Redskins4ever]

Beck may very well be the better fit for this offense. However, Rex Grossman, while being a sometimes hot and sometimes cold type of QB, has more experience in the offense. Grossman, although he tossed two picks against Dallas, also threw 4 TD passes. He also was on point in the season finale against the NYG, looking sharp and precise. But against the Jags, Grossman was off, completing only around 50% of his passes.

While Beck has shown promise, and team leadership, Grossman is just more seasoned. I think Beck can get the job done if he plays within the offense, but I like Rex because he has the most experience in the offense.

[KDawg]

I've been saying that for years. It's was maddening. It's also why there was almost no YAC on his passes. He would also never let his receivers make a play. He almost never threw a ball to a receiver on a fly unless he had a step on his defender.

If he had a very, very good group of receivers, Campbell would be extremely productive. He's a smart, conservative QB. But he does NOT take chances and that results in holding the ball for an eternity and not hitting guys who are open, but not wide open... Which results in a lot of bad drives.

If he ever got a group of receivers who run outstanding routes and can get a good release off the LOS, he'd be pretty damned good. Santana Moss and Chris Cooley were the only two guys who were really serviceable with Campbell on the roster. Randle El was decent, and that's why Campbell put up decent numbers.

Truth be told, Campbell is a middle of the road QB... But by the time we were successful here, he would have been extremely damaged goods. He's no where NEAR as bad as people here say he is... He's also no where near as good as some folks here thought he was

[Oldfan]

Beck may very well be the better fit for this offense. However, Rex Grossman, while being a sometimes hot and sometimes cold type of QB, has more experience in the offense. Grossman, although he tossed two picks against Dallas, also threw 4 TD passes. He also was on point in the season finale against the NYG, looking sharp and precise. But against the Jags, Grossman was off, completing only around 50% of his passes.

While Beck has shown promise, and team leadership, Grossman is just more seasoned. I think Beck can get the job done if he plays within the offense, but I like Rex because he has the most experience in the offense.

As Pedro pointed out earlier in this thread, it shouldn't take long for Beck to make up the experience edge, but Grossman will never make up the talent and scheme fit edge.

[SWFLSkins]

If he had a very, very good group of receivers, Campbell would be extremely productive. He's a smart, conservative QB. But he does NOT take chances and that results in holding the ball for an eternity and not hitting guys who are open, but not wide open... Which results in a lot of bad drives.

If he ever got a group of receivers who run outstanding routes and can get a good release off the LOS, he'd be pretty damned good. Santana Moss and Chris Cooley were the only two guys who were really serviceable with Campbell on the roster. Randle El was decent, and that's why Campbell put up decent numbers.

Truth be told, Campbell is a middle of the road QB... But by the time we were successful here, he would have been extremely damaged goods. He's no where NEAR as bad as people here say he is... He's also no where near as good as some folks here thought he was

Campbell KDawg could have been succesful if the team had a very talented OL so he had the time to let the WR's get open. He was mediocre but had no time to develop and ended up with the deer in the headlights effect. His window here was missed. I am not saying part of it was one him, but the team around him certainly had everything to do with what happened to him here.

[hoosandskinsMUSTwin]

Also needs to be noted - Grossman's propensity to throw off his back foot. Has been noted heavily in camp and in the games. He is also blatantly out of shape. I think he's all of 240 pounds and at 6-1, thats downright pudgy.

Beck needs to be given a shot. You have Rexy there if things don't work out. It's time to find out if you have a real answer at QB hiding on your roster.

[KDawg]

but the team around him certainly had everything to do with what happened to him here.

I disagree that the team had everything to do with what happened to him here. He was gunshy from taking a beating, sure, much like Patrick Ramsey. But for Campbell to succeed he needed better receivers and a better OL and good backs (which he had). He needed EVERYTHING to be great in order to be great.

Campbell keeps the team at the level that the supporting cast around him is at. If they're excellent, he'd be excelent. If they're mediocre, he's mediocre. If they're horrendous, he's horrendous.

[SWFLSkins]

I disagree that the team had everything to do with what happened to him here. He was gunshy from taking a beating, sure, much like Patrick Ramsey. But for Campbell to succeed he needed better receivers and a better OL and good backs (which he had). He needed EVERYTHING to be great in order to be great.

Campbell keeps the team at the level that the supporting cast around him is at. If they're excellent, he'd be excelent. If they're mediocre, he's mediocre. If they're horrendous, he's horrendous.

= my point. Mark Rypien is Jason Campbell on that same team IMO. Ryp was sacked all of nine times in the SB run, what happened after that. I think we agree but are just looking at it differently. I am not saying Campbell was a world beater at all, nor better than Mark Rypien, but the team around them certainly made it play out as it did.