Why John Beck is Likely to Win the Job

[JaxJoe]

Also needs to be noted - Grossman's propensity to throw off his back foot. Has been noted heavily in camp and in the games. He is also blatantly out of shape. I think he's all of 240 pounds and at 6-1, thats downright pudgy.

Beck needs to be given a shot. You have Rexy there if things don't work out. It's time to find out if you have a real answer at QB hiding on your roster.

Here's a decent article reposted from RBN that supports you're claim that Grossman throws off his back foot.

http://washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/nfl/2011/08/collinsworth-leaning-toward-beck

As both quarterbacks are playing statistically well, it seems the arguments most people propose is experience (Rex) vs talent (Beck). But, for me, it's the negative plays Rex has displayed in his past, as well as recently, that scare me. I don't think that Rex's Baltimore game is something to brag about. Punt, punt, punt, then TD? That TD drive is a period where the D is going to 'give' you all the underneath stuff in hopes time expires. Yes the TD pass to SM was good, but the previous pass to SM in the end zone could've been picked off. So now, like most of you, I'm nit-picking because both have played better than my expectations (thank-you OL, BTW). So I'm now focusing on the very few mistakes of each QB. And it is clear to me, Beck has fewer and less costly mistakes. The INT by Grossman was ALL Grossman and he admitted that. The INT to Stallworth by Beck wasn't as bad because Stallworth has shared neglect as he clearly slowed down when he first looked back at the QB.

[wrecker]

Yeah, that one he threw in the dirt when Tana was open for the 3rd down conversion was very Brees-esque

.....and the one deep ball he threw all preseason led AA out of bounds after the reception. If it had been an accurate throw it would have went for a TD. Very Brees-esque also.

[81+83+84=Posse]

= my point. Mark Rypien is Jason Campbell on that same team IMO. Ryp was sacked all of nine times in the SB run, what happened after that. I think we agree but are just looking at it differently. I am not saying Campbell was a world beater at all, nor better than Mark Rypien, but the team around them certainly made it play out as it did.

Yeah but Rypien could connect on the deep ball, Campbell misses every one he throws.

[Mahons21]

So, you'd like to limit this debate to preseason evidence and exclude logical deductions?

No simply pointing out that you're arguing a prediction. It's certainly possible over time that back-side OLB/DE would compensate for Beck to a noticeably higher degree than they would Grossman, but right now that's not the case, that's what you're predicting will happen.:pfft:

---------- Post added August-31st-2011 at 10:26 AM ----------

http://washingtonexaminer.com/blogs/nfl/2011/08/collinsworth-leaning-toward-beck

As both quarterbacks are playing statistically well, it seems the arguments most people propose is experience (Rex) vs talent (Beck). But, for me, it's the negative plays Rex has displayed in his past, as well as recently, that scare me. I don't think that Rex's Baltimore game is something to brag about. Punt, punt, punt, then TD? That TD drive is a period where the D is going to 'give' you all the underneath stuff in hopes time expires. Yes the TD pass to SM was good, but the previous pass to SM in the end zone could've been picked off. So now, like most of you, I'm nit-picking because both have played better than my expectations (thank-you OL, BTW). So I'm now focusing on the very few mistakes of each QB. And it is clear to me, Beck has fewer and less costly mistakes. The INT by Grossman was ALL Grossman and he admitted that. The INT to Stallworth by Beck wasn't as bad because Stallworth has shared neglect as he clearly slowed down when he first looked back at the QB.

That's got to be one of the most biased pieces I've read in quite some time, it's a shame that examiner has such great writers in Keim/Snider and then this guy comes out of nowhere. Lol guess that's not the piece and just your biased input, you couldn't be more off.

1.) 2-minute drive is where baltimore will give you all the underneath stuff. That's just wrong, he was getting underneath because they were blitzing, and he only threw 1 underneath pass on this drive the rest were intermediate to long.

2.) Does this guy know what he's talking about? Moss' dropped TD catch was twice the pass that his actual TD catch was against a busted coverage.

[MartinC]

2.) Does this guy know what he's talking about? Moss' dropped TD catch was twice the pass that his actual TD catch was against a busted coverage.

I 100% agree with this. The throw Moss dropped was a bang on time on target throw - you can't throw that ball any better.

[Oldfan]

No simply pointing out that you're arguing a prediction. It's certainly possible over time that back-side OLB/DE would compensate for Beck to a noticeably higher degree than they would Grossman, but right now that's not the case, that's what you're predicting will happen.:pfft:

Man, you are one slippery devil! "It's certainly possible...?" More like it's a lead pipe cinch.

Decisions are based on predictions;

predictions are based on Probability.

---------- Post added August-31st-2011 at 10:48 AM ----------

2.) Does this guy know what he's talking about? Moss' dropped TD catch was twice the pass that his actual TD catch was against a busted coverage.

I 100% agree with this. The throw Moss dropped was a bang on time on target throw - you can't throw that ball any better.

I think the writer was talking about the pass that was close to being intercepted, but Santana played defender and knocked it out of the corner's hands. On the next down the corner missed his assignment and left Moss open.

[Mahons21]

Man, you are one slippery devil! "It's certainly possible...?" More like it's a lead pipe cinch.

Decisions are based on predictions;

predictions are based on Probability.

I don't know if it is a lead pipe cinch. I've been looking back on Arian Foster's rushes through last season watching the weak-side DE/OLB, in an offense that lacks a mobile QB. The results are as I expected, for the most part OLB/DE stay at home against the Texans, even though Schaub isn't a threat to run. Why is this the case?

My theory: Defenses attack our specific offensive scheme by leaving the back-side guy home to contain.

Possible reasoning: Coming off a PA boot-leg teams don't want to give the QB all day to throw, playing a LB/DE in contain will allow said player to either rush the QB or at least prevent the QB from getting off a comfortable pass.

I think the writer was talking about the pass that was close to being intercepted, but Santana played defender and knocked it out of the corner's hands. On the next down the corner missed his assignment and left Moss open.

You're absolutely right, I forgot about that pass in between the other two endzone throws.

[Oldfan]

I don't know if it is a lead pipe cinch. I've been looking back on Arian Foster's rushes through last season watching the weak-side DE/OLB, in an offense that lacks a mobile QB. The results are as I expected, for the most part OLB/DE stay at home against the Texans, even though Schaub isn't a threat to run. Why is this the case?

I don't know what you are looking at, but you are trying to deny a fundamental concept: There is a two-way interaction in all football plays of this type: the stronger the running play, the better the boot-action pass will work. The better the boot-action threat, the better the run will work.

There's going to be one defender who can't have his mind and body ready to react in two directions at the same time.

[Mahons21]

I don't know what you are looking at, but you are trying to deny a fundamental concept: There is a two-way interaction in all football plays of this type: the stronger the running play, the better the boot-action pass will work. The better the boot-action threat, the better the run will work.

I'm not denying a fundamental concept, I'm saying it works. But I'm saying it works with a QB with the mobility of Rex. You're arguing that it can only work with Beck, I disagree. The degree in which Beck improves upon it over Grossman, has yet to be seen, but I don't imagine it to be anything more than a minor difference.

There's going to be one defender who can't have his mind and body ready to react in two directions at the same time.

Which is why I imagine defensive coordinators scheme to leave this player at home. Play the rush if it's 100% clear the QB doesn't have the ball, but not until that point.

That way said player doesn't have to make a decision, they can just play.

[JaxJoe]

I think the writer was talking about the pass that was close to being intercepted, but Santana played defender and knocked it out of the corner's hands. On the next down the corner missed his assignment and left Moss open.

That's exactly the pass I was referring to. But I guess my comment that I was nit-picking because both QBs are playing well was overlooked. The article I referenced was supporting the other poster's claim. But also, when you have to QBs playing well, you have look at the little things to make a decision. Rex throws off his back foot and, therefore, sometimes makes a bad pass. And the only INT that Rex threw this preseason was a terrible pick against the Colts, as Rex himself attested. I brought up the B'more game because I didn't think Rex played as well as many people have claimed. He had one scoring drive out of four attempts. And two of his drives were three-and-outs. And, yes, most defenses will give you the short to intermediate passes in the final two minutes. Especially since the Redskins have shown ineptness the previous two preseason games as they could only muster two TDs in nine attempts in the red zone.

But, I like both quarterbacks at this moment. I 'feel' warmer with Rex as the starter only because he's a seasoned vet. But I also feel like moving on and trying the new, slightly-proven QB, Beck. In my opinion he has slightly outplayed Rex this preseason. It's the same feeling why I'd rather have Niles Paul on the roster instead of Stallworth (not that I don't want Rex on the roster!).

---------- Post added August-31st-2011 at 11:29 AM ----------

I'm not denying a fundamental concept, I'm saying it works. But I'm saying it works with a QB with the mobility of Rex. You're arguing that it can only work with Beck, I disagree. The degree in which Beck improves upon it over Grossman, has yet to be seen, but I don't imagine it to be anything more than a minor difference.

You're right about the minor difference. Don't take my word for it, either. When asked about the mobility issue between the QBs, Kyle Shanahan's comments yesterday told that he changes the playcalling slightly to enhance (my words not his) the QB play, but the game plan remains the same.

[Mahons21]

And, yes, most defenses will give you the short to intermediate passes in the final two minutes. Especially since the Redskins have shown ineptness the previous two preseason games as they could only muster two TDs in nine attempts.

This isn't most defenses it's the Baltimore ravens and we don't need to talk about what most teams would do in that situation when we have evidence right before our very eyes of what Bal did do. They played a lot of press coverage and blitzed the piss out of us, almost every play on that drive is a blitz, it was anything but a defense sitting back and allowing the underneath routes. If anything they were taking away the underneath routes and forcing us to beat them down-field. They also played some cover-1 as seen on the AA catch in the middle of the field, this is not a defense designed to give up the shorter stuff.

[Oldfan]

...Which is why I imagine defensive coordinators scheme to leave this player at home. Play the rush if it's 100% clear the QB doesn't have the ball, but not until that point.

That way said player doesn't have to make a decision, they can just play.

Well, your strategy certainly sounds easy.

[Mahons21]

Well, your strategy certainly sounds easy.

Sounds easy, but wait until you get carved up with the rush because you can't send in back-side support what do you do then? Do you keep your strategy and hope you eventually slow the rushing attack down? Do you bring run blitzes? Do you tell back-side to start cheating?

How will the offense react to such adjustments?

There's nothing easy about it. But I imagine that the most basic way of defending our particular offensive scheme, is to put the back-side DE/OLB in contain.

[MartinC]

You're right about the minor difference. Don't take my word for it, either. When asked about the mobility issue between the QBs, Kyle Shanahan's comments yesterday told that he changes the playcalling slightly to enhance (my words not his) the QB play, but the game plan remains the same.

Thats not quite what Kyle said - what he said was

On if plays are called differently for each quarterback:

“Yeah, there comes a time when one has advantages over another. Right now, we’re just going with the same game plan.”

I take that to mean they are using the same game plan for preseason - hence the right now - but I would expect the gameplan to be different come regular season based on which ever QB wins the starting gig.

[bowhunter]

One thought on this topic. Coach Shan was quoted earlier this year as wanting to build this team the "right way." Since Beck is 1 year younger and has about 3-4 less "football years" on him, I wonder if that difference will factor into the QB choice. If Beck develops, he could be our QB for the next 5-6 years or so, whereas Grossman is probably limited to 3-4 years. So unless Coach wants to tank this year to draft a new QB, I see where Beck may have an edge.

[Pelado]

You're absolutely right, I forgot about that pass in between the other two endzone throws.

How convenient.

[JaxJoe]

This isn't most defenses it's the Baltimore ravens and we don't need to talk about what most teams would do in that situation when we have evidence right before our very eyes of what Bal did do. They played a lot of press coverage and blitzed the piss out of us, almost every play on that drive is a blitz, it was anything but a defense sitting back and allowing the underneath routes. If anything they were taking away the underneath routes and forcing us to beat them down-field. They also played some cover-1 as seen on the AA catch in the middle of the field, this is not a defense designed to give up the shorter stuff.

"Blitzed the piss out of us" is a bit of an exaggeration. Look at the game tape starting at about 4:48. It's clear they were in prevent until we got to the 25.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkT5K1GNY04

First play, rush four. Second play, rush four. Third play, rush five (safety) with #52 dropping back to deep cover for the blitzing safety that TH barely blocks (whew). Fourth play, rush five. In each of these plays both safeties are in deep cover for the 'prevent-D' I would hardly call this "Blitzing the piss out of us" when only four or five rushers are attacking the line. This is standard 3-4 schema. Then we have the three SM touchdown attempts. Pass #1 was awesome. As I understand the rules regarding catches in the end zone, I agree no TD. But to say the Lee Evans TD was valid is just wrong because he never had posession of the ball. Pass #2 was poor and, thankfully, #22 of the Ravens can't hold on to the INT. Pass #3 was great. Moreso because of the recognition that SM was 'that' open. I don't care what shoulder the ball was thrown, it's a TD pass and I'm happy.

[Mahons21]

You're right about the minor difference. Don't take my word for it, either. When asked about the mobility issue between the QBs, Kyle Shanahan's comments yesterday told that he changes the playcalling slightly to enhance (my words not his) the QB play, but the game plan remains the same.

As Martin has pointed out, he was not asked about their mobility he was asked about their playing calling. In addition he didn't say how he changes his play-calling, there's nothing to prove that he doesn't change the plays because he feels more comfortable calling all the plays in the play-book with Grossman. We simply don't know.

---------- Post added August-31st-2011 at 12:10 PM ----------

"Blitzed the piss out of us" is a bit of an exaggeration. Look at the game tape starting at about 4:48. It's clear they were in prevent until we got to the 25.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rkT5K1GNY04

Blitzing the piss out us was an exaggeration, I remembered multiple blitzes and Jaws pointing out how frequently BAL was blitzing on the drive.

However, saying they were in prevent or giving up the short-intermediate routes is just a large an exaggeration. Do you see these passes Rex completed they're to well covered receivers, not receivers running wide open with tons of space because that's what the defense is giving up.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

As both quarterbacks are playing statistically well, it seems the arguments most people propose is experience (Rex) vs talent (Beck). But, for me, it's the negative plays Rex has displayed in his past, as well as recently, that scare me. I don't think that Rex's Baltimore game is something to brag about. Punt, punt, punt, then TD? That TD drive is a period where the D is going to 'give' you all the underneath stuff in hopes time expires. Yes the TD pass to SM was good, but the previous pass to SM in the end zone could've been picked off. So now, like most of you, I'm nit-picking because both have played better than my expectations (thank-you OL, BTW). So I'm now focusing on the very few mistakes of each QB. And it is clear to me, Beck has fewer and less costly mistakes. The INT by Grossman was ALL Grossman and he admitted that. The INT to Stallworth by Beck wasn't as bad because Stallworth has shared neglect as he clearly slowed down when he first looked back at the QB.

I think I disagree with every sentence here.

As both quarterbacks are playing statistically well, it seems the arguments most people propose is experience (Rex) vs talent (Beck).

Repeating the same thing doesn't make it true. Each of these QBs is talented, just in different ways. Grossman's talents are more classically vital: fast reads, quick decisions, quick release, perfect rhythm, throws to spots without even seeing the receiver, extremely accurate between the numbers. His experience adds the ability to beat the blitz, recognize defenses, QB moxie (hard counts, fake audibles). While he's slow-footed, he can throw while backpedaling, which makes him hard to sack as long as he sees the rusher. He's vulnerable to blindside sacks. If his accuracy is off, his confidence in throwing to tight spots will make him look stupid, with occasional INTs. He's no threat to run, which limits some bootleg options.

Beck is very accurate on short passes and has a particular knack for ball placement leading to YAC. He's more athletic than Grossman, notably faster of foot, but no one would confuse him with Michael Vick. Extremely quick release, hard thrower. A hard worker, smart and a leader. Still uncomfortable throwing from the pocket, where he looks jumpy at times and lacks vision and timing. Strongly prefers shogun and rollout. Hesitant on some reads, slow to fire to open receivers. Demonstrates very poor ability in deep passing (30+ yards), combining bad reads with bad accuracy. Unable to place ball on back shoulder to receiver on deep flies with defender on top. Resistant to throwing the ball away, which leads to unnecessary sacks. Inexperience reading defenses may lead to problems when defenses gameplan for him. Has considerable upside as he gains experience, but also considerable downside as defenses attack his tendencies and weaknesses. He will be forced to prove he can hit midrange and deep passes, or defense will put 8 in the box and start shutting down both running game and his short passing.

But, for me, it's the negative plays Rex has displayed in his past, as well as recently, that scare me.

Beck has had many more negative plays than Grossman, both in 2011 and previously, as percentage of ATTs.

I don't think that Rex's Baltimore game is something to brag about. Punt, punt, punt, then TD? That TD drive is a period where the D is going to 'give' you all the underneath stuff in hopes time expires.

The Ravens blitzed the crap out of Grossman in the 2 minute drill.

1st punt came after Trent Williams blocked the wrong man on 3rd down, leading to an unblocked blinside rusher. 2nd punt came after 2 first downs on midrange passes, followed by an off-target throw to Moss on 3rd read. 3rd punt came after bad shotgun snap, which Grossman fielded with one hand, only to meet unblocked blitzer. The only play was to take the sack.

Yes the TD pass to SM was good, but the previous pass to SM in the end zone could've been picked off.

He threw a 22-yard TD strike that Moss dropped, on 1st down, followed by a 27-yard TD pass on 3rd and 15, and you're focused on the incompletion in between? Beck has yet to throw a catchable TD pass into the end zone. Grossman's thrown at least 4.

And it is clear to me, Beck has fewer and less costly mistakes. The INT by Grossman was ALL Grossman and he admitted that. The INT to Stallworth by Beck wasn't as bad because Stallworth has shared neglect as he clearly slowed down when he first looked back at the QB.

I have Beck down for 9 terrible plays, in half the passing opportunities. I have 4 for Grossman, in double the number of opportunities, facing tougher defenses, and attempting harder downfield passes more of the time.

Stallworth was covered from the get-go, with a defender over the top. Bad read. If Beck wanted to throw the pass, he should have thrown to the back shoulder. Stallworth slowed down and looked back for the pass to his back shoulder, which never came.

Bad read, bad decision, bad placement, and you blame Stallworth.

Meanwhile, Grossman never saw the defender. Replay it. LB moves left out of Grossman's vision, blocked by blockers. Grossman throws, and defender closes for INT. It's a bad play, but you're going to get these from Grossman. INTs are not the end of the world. If you want safe passing all the time, bring back Campbell and Brunell.

[Mahons21]

How convenient.

How profound and shocking... Another post from Pelado that has 0 to do with football.

[JaxJoe]

I don't disagree with what you're saying ASF. I'm not claiming one is better than the other. It seems Beck may be better for what Kyle is trying to run here in DC because of his accuracy and mobility. Not that they're leaps and bounds better than Rex. And I'm leaning toward Rex to start, because of his veteran experience. But I do have reservations as I've noted. I was trying to show support to the other poster that, as both QBs are playing well, that it's the little things that are being scrutinized. Which is a good thing, right?

[Pelado]

How profound and shocking... Another post from Pelado that has 0 to do with football.

What's my football/non-football ratio?

I was just playfully pointing out that it can be easy to forget data points that contradict a given paradigm.

[MartinC]

What's my football/non-football ratio?

I was just playfully pointing out that it can be easy to forget data points that contradict a given paradigm.

To be fair I forgot it as well and I would start Beck. Its just that I don't think my favoring Beck means I have to try to pick holes in Rex (not that you are).

[darrelgreenie]

Hang on. Did you just make a reverse argument for Grossman?

I wasn't making an argument for or against Grossman in my last post.

But, spin it anyway you want that's what you're good at.

You just said that last year was Cutler's best year. What changed? The offensive coordinator?

Cutler changed; he accepted his situation and was more careful with the football made better decision and made more 'plays'.

Looks to me like Cutler had a much worse year than Grossman, with the same coordinator.

That's because you don't bother with little things like actually watching Cutler play. (You already admitted this on several occasions)

You're simply looking at stats and jumping to conclusions.

Which is why I asked you this in my post:

His play or his stats?

But, even if you look at the stats Cutler was better.

So, how come Cutler gets a pass, and Grossman does not?

Can we get false assumptions and presuppositions for 100$?

Why would you assume that I gave Cutler a 'pass'?

Although Cutler was in a bad situation then he didn't play well.

By contrast Jason Campbell's last year in the Burgundy and Gold had every possible disadvantage (coaching staff/scheme/playcalling/FO/pass protection/injuries) yet he keeps his wits and didn't make a bad situation worse and statistcally had his best season.

Scheme and situation doesn't excuse poor play.

---------- Post added August-31st-2011 at 03:00 PM ----------

Campbell keeps the team at the level that the supporting cast around him is at. If they're excellent, he'd be excelent. If they're mediocre, he's mediocre. If they're horrendous, he's horrendous.

I agree for the most part except the part about if they're horrendous Campbell is horrendous.

Campbell was average in his last year in DC but I would say his supporting cast was closer to horrendous then mediocre.

Just sayin.

---------- Post added August-31st-2011 at 03:07 PM ----------

I'm not denying a fundamental concept, I'm saying it works. But I'm saying it works with a QB with the mobility of Rex. You're arguing that it can only work with Beck, I disagree. The degree in which Beck improves upon it over Grossman, has yet to be seen, but I don't imagine it to be anything more than a minor difference.

I mentioned earlier about the Colt's game.

The Colts didn't contain with their backside OLB (can't remember what the DE was doing) but Beck was able to scramble and pick-up 1st downs that I doubt Grossman would be able too.

The run threat that Beck posed in that game is an illistration of the advantage that Beck's athleticism gives him over Grossman in this offense.

There's nothing easy about it. But I imagine that the most basic way of defending our particular offensive scheme, is to put the back-side DE/OLB in contain.

Which is why I imagine defensive coordinators scheme to leave this player at home. Play the rush if it's 100% clear the QB doesn't have the ball, but not until that point.

Don't forget about the boot action pass.

[Mahons21]

]I mentioned earlier about the Colt's game.

The Colts didn't contain with their backside OLB (can't remember what the DE was doing) but Beck was able to scramble and pick-up 1st downs that I doubt Grossman would be able too.

Do back-side LB's often play contain in these instances in a 43 defense? I honestly don't know enough about it, from what I have understood it's usually just the end in a 43, but I'm not expert. When I refer to OLB/DE I'm referring to 43 ends/34 OLB's just for clarification sake.

The run threat that Beck posed in that game is an illistration of the advantage that Beck's athleticism gives him over Grossman in this offense.

I agree with that, and I'm not debating that. I'm debating his impact in this offense v Grossman's impact in this offense, how different do back-side DE/OLB's play our stretch/boot-action pass when the two different QB's are in the game.

Don't forget about the boot action pass.

That was my point, is that the DE/OLB has to play contain to defend the boot-action pass, but either QB can perform the boot-action pass in our offense. Not sure if that was your point though, sorry if I misinterpreted you.