Moving Towards our Future Front Office and Coaching Hires. All the Way to the Water Boy - Adam Peters Hired as GM! The Mighty Quinn is HC Kliff Kingsbury as OC. Joe Whitt jr at DC.

[RWJ]

Getting to know Joe Hortiz and Mike MacDonald. 

 

What you need to know about GM candidate Joe Hortiz (giants.com)

 

 

Getting to know Joe Horitz and Mike MacDonald. They may be tied to the hip according to this report.  Read the entire article to learn more about MacDonald but I have taken this part out as it seems Hortiz and MacDonald might be tight.  Just the messenger, folks.

 

Star Baltimore Ravens Coordinator Top Head Coach Candidate (lastwordonsports.com)

 

"Perhaps another name to watch is Joe Hortiz. Hortiz is currently the Ravens Director of Player Personnel but has been touted as a favorite to land a General Manager gig soon. A team looking for a total revamp could get both Hortiz and MacDonald if they are truly enamored with the Ravens system."

 

 

 

Edited December 15, 2023 by RWJ

[actorguy1]

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/insider/story/_/id/39104100/ranking-nfl-head-coach-openings-2024-season-best-worst-jobs-raiders-panthers-patriots

 

Ranking NFL Head Coaching Openings 2024

 

The NFL's coaching carousel is coming. We've already seen the Panthers and Raiders fire their coaches over the past few weeks, and as the end of the regular season approaches, it's safe to say there will be more openings by the end of January. Nobody likes to see coaches get fired, but it's a part of the business. Every head coach has been the assistant waiting for an opportunity to open up.

Every year around this time, I like to write a piece analyzing the various jobs that could come available and how they might appeal to potential head-coaching candidates as they sort through options. It's important to note that I'm not suggesting these teams should or will fire their coaches, but simply that there's a meaningful amount of smoke around those opportunities.

What's staggering about this season is how many jobs I had to consider. There are 10 teams on this list, four of which come from a single division. One of those teams will make the playoffs, so I don't expect all four coaches to be fired, but there are different scenarios in which each of those teams could justify moving on.

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This 10-team list even leaves some rumors aside. It doesn't include Mike Vrabel, who is enduring a second disappointing season in Tennessee. It also doesn't include Sean McDermott, who has had a frustrating year in Buffalo and was under fire last week for comments he made about 9/11 in a training camp talk to his team in 2019. Both coaches won in Week 14. I won't even countenance the complaints about Mike Tomlin, whose Steelers haven't been able to keep up their early-season magic spell of winning while being outgained by the competition.

One reason I can't take those concerns seriously? There are 10 teams on this list that might credibly make a change this offseason, and there aren't 10 good candidates out there for those jobs. There would be a frenzy if Vrabel, McDermott or Tomlin became available. In a league in which every team owner wants the exciting, young offensive coach, Ben Johnson (Detroit) and Bobby Slowik (Houston) are going to need personal assistants to field all their calls.

Keep in mind that a lot can change in a season. This time last year, the most desirable job on the market looked like the opportunity in Carolina, which had nearly made it to the postseason, had an exciting young core and eventually got in position to land a quarterback with the No. 1 pick. Let's rank those 10 potential openings, starting with the worst and working our way toward the best. Guess where we're starting this year:

Jump to a potential open job:

ATL | CAR | CHI | LAC | LV

NE | NO | NYJ | TB | WSH

 

10. Carolina Panthers

Pros: Young defensive talent, weak division, leverage for longer deal

Cons: Impatient ownership, questions about quarterback, draft capital

Well, there are only 32 NFL head-coaching jobs out there, and this is certainly one of them. The 1-12 Panthers have the league's worst record, have fired coaches in consecutive seasons and will likely have to send the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft to the Bears as part of the package used to acquire Bryce Young, who has been a disappointment as a rookie. The new coach will inherit a team in need of a rebuild with ownership that doesn't appear to have the patience for one. Not ideal!

Let's start with the positives. From a coaching perspective, the undesirability of the Carolina job might actually afford candidates more opportunities to remake the organization in their image by virtue of requiring more to justify taking this job. In 2017, Kyle Shanahan landed a six-year deal and personnel control when he took over a 49ers franchise that had been through three coaches in the prior three seasons. Dan Campbell netted a six-year pact to take over the Lions in 2021. If you're a head coach with an impressive résumé who wants to shop for the personnel groceries or hopes to land the sort of 10-year deals we've seen for top college coaches, a desperate Panthers franchise might have no choice but to indulge those requests.

The Panthers probably aren't as far from competing as it feels. Remember: They were competing for a division title this time last season and had a 14-0 lead in the de facto NFC South title game, only for Tom Brady and Mike Evans to take over. Admittedly, that team was 6-9 in a division that sent a team with a losing record to the playoffs, but the South hasn't exactly developed a bounty of talent over the ensuing 12 months, either. It's still ripe for the taking, with all four teams potentially considering a coaching change this offseason

One of the reasons the Panthers lost that day was the absence of star cornerback Jaycee Horn, who hasn't been able to stay healthy. He missed 14 games in 2021, three games in 2022 and was sidelined during the season-opening loss in 2023 before returning two weeks ago. There are building blocks on the defensive side of the ball in Horn, Brian Burns and linebacker Frankie Luvu, but Burns and Luvu are pending free agents, and Horn is eligible for a significant raise. The new coach will have to decide whether the franchise should pay up to retain a defense that hasn't been great or rebuild and possibly move on from Burns and Luvu this offseason.

There certainly are skeptics of Young's ability to succeed at the NFL level given his size and 5-10 frame, but the hiring process is self-fulfilling: The Panthers will only hire someone who believes Young is a superstar in the making, in part because they have no choice but to develop him as best they can over the next couple of seasons. Given team owner David Tepper's typical timeline for coaches, though, there should be something ringing in the back of the heads of potential candidates: If Young's not the guy in Carolina, will I still be around when it's time to target the next quarterback of the future?

 

9. Las Vegas Raiders

Pros: No state income tax

Cons: Erratic ownership, limited talent on roster, difficult division

There simply isn't a lot to work with for a coach taking over this Raiders job. At 5-8, the Raiders have been competitive, but they continue to be stuck in a no-man's-land between rebuilding and contention, despite a few veteran standouts. Whoever takes over, whether it be interim coach Antonio Pierce or an outsider, will need to convince team owner Mark Davis to firmly go in one direction or the other.

As I've written multiple times, this Vegas roster is bereft of cost-controlled young talent after years of subpar drafting under Jon Gruden. Former coach Josh McDaniels trading first- and second-round picks for Davante Adams didn't help matters, and rookie No. 7 pick Tyree Wilson is off to a slow start. The organization committed to playing rookie fourth-rounder Aidan O'Connell after firing McDaniels, but while he has shown flashes, he ranks 29th out of 30 qualifying quarterbacks in QBR.

The Raiders have all of their key draft picks moving forward, but their record is too good to give them a shot at one of the top two selections in a class that is considered to have two standout quarterbacks. It wouldn't be surprising if they hired a coach who felt compelled to go after one of the secondary quarterback options in this class, and indeed, Matt Miller's new mock draft has them selecting Michigan's J.J. McCarthy at No. 7.

More than anything, a new quarterback and coach will need time and patience. In 2018, Davis fired Jack Del Rio one year after a 12-win season and stripped power from general manager Reggie McKenzie, who had painstakingly rebuilt the most exciting Raiders team in more than a decade after taking over while the team was in cap hell. Gruden resigned because of his off-field behavior in 2021, while McDaniels was fired before the midway point of his second season.

I don't fault Davis for firing McDaniels, but whoever takes this job is going to require at least three seasons to build a roster capable of competing with the Chiefs, who are both better and younger than the Raiders. Vegas is the league's eighth-oldest team on a snap-weighted basis this season, a product of needing to target free agents to fill in for the missing young players. It's OK to be old if a team has a championship-caliber core, but the Raiders don't have enough beyond Adams, Maxx Crosby and Kolton Miller.

One positive is that they won't have trouble attracting talent. The absence of a state income tax in Nevada means the franchise can be financially competitive without needing to match the offers presented by other teams in free agency. It will also appeal to a coach, since he'll be getting his money tax-free, too. We've seen Davis give an enormous contract and significant personnel control to a coach in the past when he gave Gruden a 10-year, $100 million deal to leave ESPN, but that didn't go well. He might need to do something drastic again to make this job more appealing to top candidates.

 

8. New Orleans Saints

Pros: Weak division, big names on roster

Cons: Oldest team in league, terrible cap situation, some missing draft capital

Since Drew Brees retired, the Saints have done as little as possible to veer from their philosophies. They continue to be aggressive in moving up before and during the draft, which has led to positives (Chris Olave) and negatives (Trevor Penning). They've continued to put their cap issues on layaway, which allowed them to bring in quarterback Derek Carr this offseason, albeit at the expense of their entire defensive tackle rotation. They've generally kept the coaching staff as familiar as possible by promoting defensive coordinator Dennis Allen to head coach and handing over the offense to longtime Sean Payton lieutenant Pete Carmichael.

The financial choices the Saints have made have led them to be all-in with their current core for several years now, and as that core continues to age and decline, the results have not lived up to fans' expectations. With a steady quarterback and the league's easiest schedule, the baseline for this season was a division title and a home playoff game. Even with the NFC South living down to expectations, they might not get there. Firing Allen and hiring a coach would be the first sign that the Saints are recognizing they can't continue on the same path and get better results.

This job will be a challenge, but the type of challenge it represents will come down to whether the Saints are prepared to make a more significant diversion from their past. If they just want to make a change at coach and count on the new guy to get more out of the veterans on their roster than Allen & Co., the roster isn't going to change much. They will restructure every deal they can to clear out their $90 million cap overage, hand out a couple of extensions to reduce the load even further and hope that a new coach can get Carr looking more like the player we saw for the Raiders in 2021 than the one who disappointed Josh McDaniels in 2022 and seemingly the entire Saints fan base in 2023.

On the other hand, if moving on from Allen is a signal the Saints are finally ready to acknowledge the inevitable and tear things down, it's going to take a while. Most teams can create cap space by releasing players, but New Orleans would gain only marginal amounts of space by moving on from Alvin Kamara and Tyrann Mathieu. Carr's contract still has $30 million remaining in full guarantees. Cameron Jordan has $25.5 million in guarantees left on his most recent restructure. Andrus Peat's deal will void with $24 million in dead money, and Michael Thomas' contract is likely to void as well, which would add another $18 million to the discard pile.

There is young talent on both sides of the ball here, but there's no escaping the destruction that is going to come from moving on from the veteran core. The Saints have repeatedly pushed that reality into the future and have been willing to pay for decreasing production from those players over the past few seasons. In doing so, they've squeezed themselves so thin that they probably can't take just a single season and reset in the way that, say, the Rams did this season. This will be a multiyear process to even set up the rebuild, and if the coach they're trying to hire knows how the cap works, that's going to be a negative for the team's appeal.

With that being the case, it's more likely that the Saints would simply try to hire an offensive-leaning coach to replace Allen and try to run it back with the same core at least one more time. That might be enough to win their division in 2024, but they will be a year older, going up against younger teams and facing a tougher schedule. That scenario might not be as appealing to promising coaches as New Orleans fans hope.

 

7. Washington Commanders

Pros: Halo effect from new ownership, low expectations, draft capital

Cons: Subpar facilities, lack of star talent at key positions, need to rebuild culture

What has happened in Washington isn't really Ron Rivera's fault, but somebody else is probably going to be the one attempting to solve the issue that has vexed everyone short of Joe Gibbs for 30 years: How do the Commanders build a consistent winner? They haven't won a playoff game since 2005 or advanced out of the divisional round since Gibbs won his last Super Bowl in 1992.

One big difference is the next coach won't be beginning his tenure under team owner Daniel Snyder. With Josh Harris headlining the group of investors that purchased the team last summer, the natural comparison here is to another team Harris took over: the Philadelphia 76ers. Harris famously hired Sam Hinkie and embarked on what has become known as "The Process," a to-the-studs rebuild that eventually yielded Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, albeit after Hinkie resigned from the team in 2016.

There's no guarantee that the Commanders will tank or embark on a similar sort of meandering rebuild, but at the very least, Harris was willing to sign off on an extensive rebuild that was going to take multiple seasons. They have a few talented players, but they're not one quarterback or one draft away from competing for a Super Bowl. Any coach or general manager who comes here is going to be both pitching and operating on a long-term timeline for success.

While the Commanders aren't as bereft of talent as other teams in this article, they don't have the sort of players that the vast majority of teams around the league are built around. The most expensive positions to fill are quarterback, edge rusher, wide receiver, defensive tackle and cornerback. Washington has Terry McLaurin at wide receiver and the duo of Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne at defensive tackle, but all three are already on second contracts and likely to be approaching or in their 30s by the time there's meaningful help around them.

With apologies to what has been a high-octane year for sophomore quarterback Sam Howell, the Commanders don't have much to be excited about at those other positions. The jury is still out on rookie first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes, and they need to start hitting on draft picks at positions they'll have trouble filling in free agency. They'll have extra second- and third-round picks from the trades they made at the deadline involving Montez Sweat and Chase Young, which will help. If they end up with a pick that has significant trade value for one of the teams wanting to add a quarterback, the Commanders will need to give that deal serious thought.

Cutting ties with one of the last remnants of the Snyder regime will buy the new coach some time, but this is also going to be a job where the public-facing executives running things are going to need to be friendlier and more open than usual. The new regime is going to need to do whatever possible to reignite the passion of lapsed Commanders fans, and for the next couple of years, it won't be the quality of the play on the field or the comfort of the stadium. If you pay attention to coaching news conferences around the league, you'll see that openness and warmth aren't exactly qualities some coaches care to exude.

 

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pros: Talent on both sides of the ball, no state income tax, easy division

Cons: No franchise quarterback, difficult cap situation

Not many teams are simultaneously in first place and on a list for potential coach openings in December, but the NFC South is a unique place. The Bucs moved into first after a last-minute victory over the Falcons on Sunday, albeit in a division in which the top three teams are all 6-7. Wins over the Saints and Panthers to end the season would likely be enough to get them into the postseason. We saw the Titans part ways with Mike Mularkey in 2017 even after winning a playoff game, but advancing into the playoffs for the second consecutive year should be enough for Todd Bowles to keep his job.

If the Buccaneers do move on from Bowles, they'll be one of several teams with two disparate paths forward. Tampa has $47 million in cap space next year, but it has one of the most significant free agent classes of any team, with a group that includes Mike Evans, Devin White, Lavonte David, Baker Mayfield and Antoine Winfield Jr. Will general manager Jason Licht want to use that money to bring back his veterans and try to rerun this team in 2024? Or is it time for the Buccaneers to rebuild and try to compete again in 2025 and beyond?

The lack of serious competition in the NFC South will probably encourage a more aggressive path for the Buccaneers, which will also influence their coaching hire. Mayfield has played solidly enough to return with some sort of modest raise on his $4 million guarantee from 2023. Winfield is a star. Evans is having a vintage season at age 30. In a division in which eight wins were enough to get them a division title in 2022 and might be enough to repeat the feat in 2023, they don't have to aspire to be great to host a playoff game.

We could split the difference. Tampa could choose to bring the vets back, re-sign Mayfield and then take a big swing on one of the second- or third-tier quarterbacks in the first round of April's draft. In that path, it would likely behoove the Bucs to pursue an offensive-minded head coach, although first-year coordinator Dave Canales has done solid work with Mayfield this season. Unlike with a team like the Bears, who will likely have their pick of the 2024 draft class with the No. 1 overall selection, nobody will be able to come to Tampa Bay and be sure that the team will land the quarterback it wants in the draft.

Tampa made the most meaningful free agent signing of the past decade when it imported Tom Brady from New England, so we know it can sell even the best players on a plan. Florida has warm weather and no state income tax, which are factors that will always appeal to players in free agency. Coaches will have an easier time recruiting there than they will in Green Bay or Buffalo. The Bucs also make more money themselves, which adds up over five years on a fully guaranteed deal. All of those factors make the Bucs' opportunity a more appealing one than it might seem at first glance.

 

5. New England Patriots

Pros: Draft capital, potential path to a quarterback, defense, stable ownership

Cons: Old roster devoid of offensive talent, fan base agitating for success, shadow of greatest coach ever

It's not easy to follow the greats. In 1968, Phil Bengtson took over for Vince Lombardi in Green Bay and lasted three seasons. In 1991, Bill Parcells left the Giants and handed over coaching duties to Ray Handley, who was so shook by his two years at the helm that he never coached at any level again. Chip Kelly took over for Andy Reid in Philadelphia in 2013 and was out after three years. With George Seifert (49ers) and Mike Tomlin (Steelers) as notable exceptions, coaches don't often want to be the guy replacing "The Guy."

Things might be different with the Patriots because the guy isn't leaving on a high note. Had Bill Belichick left with Tom Brady after a 12-4 season in 2019, the task of replacing one of the most legendary coaches in football history would have seemed incalculable. After three losing seasons in the ensuing four years, though, the thought of parting ways with Belichick isn't as unthinkable to Patriots fans as it might have seemed. Frankly, after two decades of winning double-digit games as a reflex, there's a significant number of New England fans who seem ready for fresh blood.

I already wrote at length earlier this year about how the Patriots ended up in this situation, so I won't rehash those concerns. I'll note that they have a 75% chance of ending up with one of the top two picks in next year's draft, which would make this job much more desirable. It's difficult to imagine a coach taking over with the intention of guaranteeing Mac Jones' fifth-year option for 2025, which would leave the quarterback as a lame-duck starter or a possible trade candidate.

Even without Matthew Judon (biceps) and breakout rookie Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) for most of the season, Belichick has managed to right the ship on defense. While not exactly facing a brutal schedule of opposing quarterbacks, the Pats are allowing a league-best 1.1 points per possession over the past five games. He's doing that with Jahlani Tavai, Anfernee Jennings, J.C. Jackson and Mack Wilson getting regular work. It would be tough to imagine the Patriots thriving as consistently on defense if Belichick left town, even if an assistant such as Jerod Mayo inherited the job.

It's simultaneously hard to argue the offense wouldn't get a much-needed fresh start. There aren't many building blocks on that side of the ball, and two of the players who have been positives during their tenure are pending free agent Mike Onwenu and running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who is eligible for a new deal after the season. The Pats can bring back the interior of their line with Cole Strange, David Andrews and rookie Sidy Sow, but this team needs both an influx of talent and a coach who will get the most out of that speed. It'll be a serious challenge, especially if the Patriots do want to hire an offensive-minded coach.

One positive for potential coaches is that the Krafts generally have had very good taste in hires. Robert Kraft took over in 1994 with Parcells at the helm and has needed to make only two head-coaching hires since: Belichick and Pete Carroll, who coached the Pats from 1997 to 1999. You could argue the Pats were a little aggressive in firing Carroll after he went 27-21 in three seasons with the team, but generally, they are regarded as one of the more stable, hands-off operations in the league. That will appeal to coaches, especially ones who have worked with irascible or erratic owners in prior jobs.

The AFC East might also be an appealing destination. The Dolphins have one of the league's deepest rosters, but employing Tua Tagovailoa is about to get much more expensive and star wideout Tyreek Hill turns 30 in March. The Jets haven't been very good and are built around a 40-year-old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles. The Bills have declined from their 2020-21 peak and appear set for a retooling around Josh Allen, if not a rebuild. If the Patriots land Drake Maye or Caleb Williams, get the right pieces around a young quarterback and don't slip too much on defense, their path back to contention could be quicker than it feels now.

 

4. New York Jets

Pros: Defense, veteran quarterback, immediate chances of success

Cons: Draft capital, lofty expectations, quarterback uncertainty post-2024

The Jets realistically exist in their own sphere of evaluation separate from the other teams on this list, in part because they've been run in an entirely different way. Just about every decision they made last offseason was more about satisfying Aaron Rodgers than building the best possible roster. Now's not the time to relitigate those choices, but it's safe to say many of them have not worked.

Who takes the blame for those mistakes? Does anybody? It would be fair to say New York never got to see what it would look like with Rodgers on the field and basically treated 2023 as a bad dream. It would also be fair to look at a coach who has gone 16-31 and a general manager with a 25-54 record and wonder if Rodgers could find more successful executives to build a team in what could be his final NFL season.

It seems logical to assume that moving on from Robert Saleh would hurt the Jets' chances of fielding a championship-caliber defense in 2024. While they've made a few big splashes, he has coaxed new levels of play from guys who weren't expected to be standouts, including undrafted free agent Bryce Huff and former Jaguars castoff Quincy Williams. Veterans D.J. Reed and Quinton Jefferson have been better in New York than they were elsewhere. Sauce Gardner isn't suddenly going to turn into a pumpkin overnight if Saleh is fired, but it's tough to believe the coach isn't playing a meaningful role in getting the most out of a very good defense.

On the other hand, hiring an offensive-minded coach might do more to solve New York's problems on its weaker side of the ball. A second-half outburst against the Texans in Week 14 was a rare respite in what has been a disastrous season on offense. While Rodgers' injury cost the Jets any semblance of a ceiling, what has happened without him has exposed weaknesses throughout the lineup. They have one excellent playmaker in Garrett Wilson, a player who has flashed but mostly struggled in Breece Hall and little else. They would be better with Rodgers, of course, but he alone wouldn't make the offense great.

Would a healthy-ish Rodgers and a defense that is ranked among the league's best be appealing to the right coach? Of course. How many of these other jobs have a realistic chance of competing for a Super Bowl next season? Expectations are going to be extremely high in New York, which would make this job difficult, but it would also be appealing to a coach who wants to win immediately. Bruce Arians joined the Bucs before Tom Brady, but the Kangol-ed former Cardinals coach certainly didn't regret taking on a job with short-term upside when Tampa won a Super Bowl in the 2020 season.

With that said, there's a lot of work to be done this offseason to even have a shot at competing in 2024. Huff is a free agent, as are Jefferson and Jordan Whitehead. The Jets sorely need playmakers and offensive line help and won't have much cap space, even with Rodgers' cap hit down to $17.2 million. They're also going to send their second-round pick to the Packers as part of the Rodgers trade compensation.

It might also be a one-season shot at glory. Rodgers might retire after 2024, leaving the Jets with nothing at quarterback and $49 million in dead money on their salary cap. Wilson and Gardner will be eligible for new extensions at the same time. The 2025 Jets could end up looking a lot like the 2023 Buccaneers as a team with plenty of talented players but without the quarterback or depth needed to really compete for a division title. Any coach who wants to sign up for what could be an exhilarating 2024 will probably need to be on board with a retooling after Rodgers retires, if not something closer to a rebuild.

Flags fly forever, though, and while there are plenty of coaches who want to try to build a franchise from the ground up in their image, I imagine it wouldn't be hard to find a veteran who wants to inherit Rodgers and that defense and try to win now.

 

3. Atlanta Falcons

Pros: Patient ownership, young talent, subpar division

Cons: Major questions at quarterback, possibility of a limited budget after a 2023 spending spree

The Falcons are like the NFC's version of the Bengals. Cincinnati used the draft to stock up with playmakers and went through free agency to build its defense. So did Atlanta. The Falcons have a better offensive line, but the general roster-building plan is similar.

There's one very significant difference. The Bengals used the No. 1 pick in 2020 to land Joe Burrow. The Falcons passed on Justin Fields to draft Kyle Pitts in 2021, selected Desmond Ridder in the third round of the 2022 draft, then didn't move up to take Anthony Richardson with the No. 3 pick in 2023. Bijan Robinson has been exciting as a rookie, but the preseason talk about how he was going to be used as a unique playmaker has mostly turned out to be nonsense. Robinson has six catches for 58 yards on 46 routes out of the slot all season, and 33 of those yards came on a glorified jet sweep last Sunday.

While the offense has dominated the conversation, the defense has been what has fueled the Falcons. With Jessie Bates III in the middle of an All-Pro season, the Falcons rank seventh in QBR allowed and expected points added (EPA) per play. It's an unfamiliar concept in Atlanta, where the defense hasn't been above-average since 2017, but this is the best defense it has rolled out in a long time.

So, the Falcons have a resurgent defense, exciting young playmakers (who rarely see the ball) and a quarterback who has already been benched once in 2023. A new coaching regime would have no allegiance to Ridder, who ranks 24th in QBR with four games to go. There will be some coaches who see a Falcons opening and think that they could make better use of Atlanta's highly drafted receivers with better quarterback play and more obvious playcalling.

Arthur Blank has generally been one of the NFL's most patient team owners, which is a reason this opening is unlikely to become available. Jim Mora got three years. Bobby Petrino left after one year, but Mike Smith was in the job for seven seasons. Dan Quinn was fired partway through his sixth season. Then again, Mora, Mike Smith and Quinn all made the playoffs within two seasons of taking over; Arthur Smith would be finishing his third season without a playoff berth if the Falcons don't make it in 2023.

Will Blank want to spend heavily on a quarterback? He has never hesitated to back his coaches before, but the Falcons went on a spending spree last offseason, signing six of their 10 most oft-used defensive players this season in free agency while also handing out big contracts to offensive linemen Kaleb McGary and Chris Lindstrom. The Falcons have over $30 million in cap space, so they'll have room to work with, but most coaches prefer to be present during the season when the vast majority is spent, not the year after. Given that there's still room in the budget and enough to be excited about around the questions at quarterback, I suspect the Falcons would draw plenty of interest if we see a split between the league's two Arthurs after the year.

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2. Los Angeles Chargers

Pros: Franchise quarterback, top-end talent on both sides of the ball, location
Cons: Lofty expectations, perennial home-field disadvantage, roster in transition, division

Come coach Justin Herbert. Those four words are enough to make this job more appealing than the majority of the other opportunities out there, especially for the offensive-minded coaches who will draw the most attention this offseason. If you're Lions coordinator Ben Johnson, why coach Bryce Young, Justin Fields or even Drake Maye when you can take over a team that has Herbert, a 25-year-old capable of making any throw on the field? It's tempting to just leave the explanation there.

Over the past few years, the Chargers have boasted a core as exciting as that of any other team. As we hit the end of a disappointing 2023 campaign, though, that core doesn't seem quite as appealing. Austin Ekeler is coming off his worst season as a starter and is about to hit free agency. Keenan Allen is 31 and coming due for a new deal. Mike Williams missed most of 2023 with a torn ACL and is about to enter the final year of his pact. Corey Linsley has been sidelined since September with a heart condition. Rookie first-round pick Quentin Johnston is having one of the worst rookie seasons we've seen from a wide receiver.

Things are worrisome on the defensive side of the ball, too. J.C. Jackson turned out to be a disastrous free agent signing, and the Chargers had to eat significant money to deal him to the Patriots. Fellow starting corner Michael Davis was benched earlier this season. Kenneth Murray Jr. never developed into even a solid linebacker and will be a free agent after the season. Joey Bosa, meanwhile, has missed 16 games over the past two seasons and has played more than 60% of the defensive snaps in a game just twice since October 2022.

There are unquestionable positives. Khalil Mack is having a resurgent season, although he's 32 and about to enter the final year of his contract. Derwin James Jr. is still an excellent safety, albeit one with a penchant for committing personal fouls. Rashawn Slater and Jamaree Salyer are building blocks up front. The Chargers' special teams, a longtime weakness, is the league's best this season by DVOA.

The dream of a coach coming in and landing a plug-and-play championship roster is gone. Herbert is no longer on a rookie deal, and while his cap hit won't rise north of $20 million until 2025, the next coach won't have the same sort of bargain-contract quarterback Brandon Staley had for his tenure with this team. Slater is due for a new deal after 2023 as well. The Chargers are $44 million over the projected cap next year, so while they can and will restructure deals to make the calculations work, this is a very different situation than the one Staley inherited in 2020.

Is it still appealing? Of course. Herbert is Herbert. Players are always going to want to play in Los Angeles, even if the Chargers have a bad habit of having their stadium overrun by opposition fans. (Herbert is just 16-16 at home, and his numbers are slightly better on the road than they are in Inglewood, which is not usually the case for quarterbacks who play their home games in what amounts to a dome.) Being stuck in a division with Patrick Mahomes isn't going to be fun, but most coaches will feel like they have a shot to beat anybody with Herbert on the field. I'm just not sure what's around him is quite as appealing as it seemed a few years ago.

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1. Chicago Bears

Pros: Draft capital, access to potential star quarterback, young roster
Cons: High-stakes decision to be made immediately, significant work needed on line of scrimmage

Thanks to the trade with the Panthers from last March, the Bears have a 99% chance of landing one of the top two picks in the 2024 draft. They have just under a 95% chance of landing the No. 1 pick outright, which would put them in an enviable position. They would be able to keep Justin Fields, use the pick they're landing from Carolina to trade down and amass a franchise-altering amount of draft capital. They could also draft Drake Maye or Caleb Williams and trade Fields to one of the teams that isn't in position to land its new passer. Plus, their own pick is projected to land at No. 7, which gives them even more flexibility.

I don't know that a new coach will have the final say in that discussion, but if the Bears do fire Matt Eberflus, whoever they hire will be part of the process in terms of making a final decision about what to do at quarterback. Either option can work: Fields has flashed plenty of promising characteristics, and landing three or four first-round picks is the best path toward building a championship-caliber team. The most valuable asset in football, however, is a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback with years to go on a rookie deal. Neither option is assured, but whoever takes this job will be intrigued by whichever choice Chicago eventually makes.

At the same time, this isn't going to be an easy call. The new coach will have to be involved in this process without ever working with Fields or spending much time with general manager Ryan Poles. It's a good choice to have, but if the Bears and their new coach get it wrong, it might be enough to sink that coach's tenure with the organization. That's not going to preclude many coaches from being willing to join if they believe in whoever ends up quarterbacking this team, but it's a reality of the situation: The biggest call of this coach's life is going to be made with imperfect information.

While the Bears have shown signs of life on both sides of the ball and could be 7-6 with some better work holding on to fourth-quarter leads this season, even the most hard-core fans would admit there's more to be done to build this team into a contender. Montez Sweat will lock down one edge rusher spot for years to come, but the Bears need a second edge rusher and an interior disruptor. Braxton Jones might not be the long-term left tackle. If free agents Jaylon Johnson and Darnell Mooney leave after the season, Chicago will need new starters at wide receiver and cornerback.

The Bears still need stars on both sides of the football, but with the league's third-youngest roster, the players Poles has added over the past couple of seasons still have time to develop. This will be the most important offseason of his tenure, given that the general manager will need to make decisions about whether he wants to replace his coach and quarterback in a matter of weeks. While it can be nerve-racking to see the coach before the new hire get fired two seasons into a rebuild, I don't think Poles will lack for options if the Bears want to lean toward a more offensive-minded replacement for Eberflus in 2024.

Edited December 16, 2023 by actorguy1

[gooseneck]

McGrath

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uN4Can0jDww

[method man]

2 hours ago, actorguy1 said:

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/insider/story/_/id/39104100/ranking-nfl-head-coach-openings-2024-season-best-worst-jobs-raiders-panthers-patriots

 

Ranking NFL Head Coaching Openings 2024

 

The NFL's coaching carousel is coming. We've already seen the Panthers and Raiders fire their coaches over the past few weeks, and as the end of the regular season approaches, it's safe to say there will be more openings by the end of January. Nobody likes to see coaches get fired, but it's a part of the business. Every head coach has been the assistant waiting for an opportunity to open up.

Every year around this time, I like to write a piece analyzing the various jobs that could come available and how they might appeal to potential head-coaching candidates as they sort through options. It's important to note that I'm not suggesting these teams should or will fire their coaches, but simply that there's a meaningful amount of smoke around those opportunities.

What's staggering about this season is how many jobs I had to consider. There are 10 teams on this list, four of which come from a single division. One of those teams will make the playoffs, so I don't expect all four coaches to be fired, but there are different scenarios in which each of those teams could justify moving on.

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This 10-team list even leaves some rumors aside. It doesn't include Mike Vrabel, who is enduring a second disappointing season in Tennessee. It also doesn't include Sean McDermott, who has had a frustrating year in Buffalo and was under fire last week for comments he made about 9/11 in a training camp talk to his team in 2019. Both coaches won in Week 14. I won't even countenance the complaints about Mike Tomlin, whose Steelers haven't been able to keep up their early-season magic spell of winning while being outgained by the competition.

One reason I can't take those concerns seriously? There are 10 teams on this list that might credibly make a change this offseason, and there aren't 10 good candidates out there for those jobs. There would be a frenzy if Vrabel, McDermott or Tomlin became available. In a league in which every team owner wants the exciting, young offensive coach, Ben Johnson (Detroit) and Bobby Slowik (Houston) are going to need personal assistants to field all their calls.

Keep in mind that a lot can change in a season. This time last year, the most desirable job on the market looked like the opportunity in Carolina, which had nearly made it to the postseason, had an exciting young core and eventually got in position to land a quarterback with the No. 1 pick. Let's rank those 10 potential openings, starting with the worst and working our way toward the best. Guess where we're starting this year:

Jump to a potential open job:

ATL | CAR | CHI | LAC | LV

NE | NO | NYJ | TB | WSH

 

10. Carolina Panthers

Pros: Young defensive talent, weak division, leverage for longer deal

Cons: Impatient ownership, questions about quarterback, draft capital

Well, there are only 32 NFL head-coaching jobs out there, and this is certainly one of them. The 1-12 Panthers have the league's worst record, have fired coaches in consecutive seasons and will likely have to send the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft to the Bears as part of the package used to acquire Bryce Young, who has been a disappointment as a rookie. The new coach will inherit a team in need of a rebuild with ownership that doesn't appear to have the patience for one. Not ideal!

Let's start with the positives. From a coaching perspective, the undesirability of the Carolina job might actually afford candidates more opportunities to remake the organization in their image by virtue of requiring more to justify taking this job. In 2017, Kyle Shanahan landed a six-year deal and personnel control when he took over a 49ers franchise that had been through three coaches in the prior three seasons. Dan Campbell netted a six-year pact to take over the Lions in 2021. If you're a head coach with an impressive résumé who wants to shop for the personnel groceries or hopes to land the sort of 10-year deals we've seen for top college coaches, a desperate Panthers franchise might have no choice but to indulge those requests.

The Panthers probably aren't as far from competing as it feels. Remember: They were competing for a division title this time last season and had a 14-0 lead in the de facto NFC South title game, only for Tom Brady and Mike Evans to take over. Admittedly, that team was 6-9 in a division that sent a team with a losing record to the playoffs, but the South hasn't exactly developed a bounty of talent over the ensuing 12 months, either. It's still ripe for the taking, with all four teams potentially considering a coaching change this offseason

One of the reasons the Panthers lost that day was the absence of star cornerback Jaycee Horn, who hasn't been able to stay healthy. He missed 14 games in 2021, three games in 2022 and was sidelined during the season-opening loss in 2023 before returning two weeks ago. There are building blocks on the defensive side of the ball in Horn, Brian Burns and linebacker Frankie Luvu, but Burns and Luvu are pending free agents, and Horn is eligible for a significant raise. The new coach will have to decide whether the franchise should pay up to retain a defense that hasn't been great or rebuild and possibly move on from Burns and Luvu this offseason.

There certainly are skeptics of Young's ability to succeed at the NFL level given his size and 5-10 frame, but the hiring process is self-fulfilling: The Panthers will only hire someone who believes Young is a superstar in the making, in part because they have no choice but to develop him as best they can over the next couple of seasons. Given team owner David Tepper's typical timeline for coaches, though, there should be something ringing in the back of the heads of potential candidates: If Young's not the guy in Carolina, will I still be around when it's time to target the next quarterback of the future?

 

9. Las Vegas Raiders

Pros: No state income tax

Cons: Erratic ownership, limited talent on roster, difficult division

There simply isn't a lot to work with for a coach taking over this Raiders job. At 5-8, the Raiders have been competitive, but they continue to be stuck in a no-man's-land between rebuilding and contention, despite a few veteran standouts. Whoever takes over, whether it be interim coach Antonio Pierce or an outsider, will need to convince team owner Mark Davis to firmly go in one direction or the other.

As I've written multiple times, this Vegas roster is bereft of cost-controlled young talent after years of subpar drafting under Jon Gruden. Former coach Josh McDaniels trading first- and second-round picks for Davante Adams didn't help matters, and rookie No. 7 pick Tyree Wilson is off to a slow start. The organization committed to playing rookie fourth-rounder Aidan O'Connell after firing McDaniels, but while he has shown flashes, he ranks 29th out of 30 qualifying quarterbacks in QBR.

The Raiders have all of their key draft picks moving forward, but their record is too good to give them a shot at one of the top two selections in a class that is considered to have two standout quarterbacks. It wouldn't be surprising if they hired a coach who felt compelled to go after one of the secondary quarterback options in this class, and indeed, Matt Miller's new mock draft has them selecting Michigan's J.J. McCarthy at No. 7.

More than anything, a new quarterback and coach will need time and patience. In 2018, Davis fired Jack Del Rio one year after a 12-win season and stripped power from general manager Reggie McKenzie, who had painstakingly rebuilt the most exciting Raiders team in more than a decade after taking over while the team was in cap hell. Gruden resigned because of his off-field behavior in 2021, while McDaniels was fired before the midway point of his second season.

I don't fault Davis for firing McDaniels, but whoever takes this job is going to require at least three seasons to build a roster capable of competing with the Chiefs, who are both better and younger than the Raiders. Vegas is the league's eighth-oldest team on a snap-weighted basis this season, a product of needing to target free agents to fill in for the missing young players. It's OK to be old if a team has a championship-caliber core, but the Raiders don't have enough beyond Adams, Maxx Crosby and Kolton Miller.

One positive is that they won't have trouble attracting talent. The absence of a state income tax in Nevada means the franchise can be financially competitive without needing to match the offers presented by other teams in free agency. It will also appeal to a coach, since he'll be getting his money tax-free, too. We've seen Davis give an enormous contract and significant personnel control to a coach in the past when he gave Gruden a 10-year, $100 million deal to leave ESPN, but that didn't go well. He might need to do something drastic again to make this job more appealing to top candidates.

 

8. New Orleans Saints

Pros: Weak division, big names on roster

Cons: Oldest team in league, terrible cap situation, some missing draft capital

Since Drew Brees retired, the Saints have done as little as possible to veer from their philosophies. They continue to be aggressive in moving up before and during the draft, which has led to positives (Chris Olave) and negatives (Trevor Penning). They've continued to put their cap issues on layaway, which allowed them to bring in quarterback Derek Carr this offseason, albeit at the expense of their entire defensive tackle rotation. They've generally kept the coaching staff as familiar as possible by promoting defensive coordinator Dennis Allen to head coach and handing over the offense to longtime Sean Payton lieutenant Pete Carmichael.

The financial choices the Saints have made have led them to be all-in with their current core for several years now, and as that core continues to age and decline, the results have not lived up to fans' expectations. With a steady quarterback and the league's easiest schedule, the baseline for this season was a division title and a home playoff game. Even with the NFC South living down to expectations, they might not get there. Firing Allen and hiring a coach would be the first sign that the Saints are recognizing they can't continue on the same path and get better results.

This job will be a challenge, but the type of challenge it represents will come down to whether the Saints are prepared to make a more significant diversion from their past. If they just want to make a change at coach and count on the new guy to get more out of the veterans on their roster than Allen & Co., the roster isn't going to change much. They will restructure every deal they can to clear out their $90 million cap overage, hand out a couple of extensions to reduce the load even further and hope that a new coach can get Carr looking more like the player we saw for the Raiders in 2021 than the one who disappointed Josh McDaniels in 2022 and seemingly the entire Saints fan base in 2023.

On the other hand, if moving on from Allen is a signal the Saints are finally ready to acknowledge the inevitable and tear things down, it's going to take a while. Most teams can create cap space by releasing players, but New Orleans would gain only marginal amounts of space by moving on from Alvin Kamara and Tyrann Mathieu. Carr's contract still has $30 million remaining in full guarantees. Cameron Jordan has $25.5 million in guarantees left on his most recent restructure. Andrus Peat's deal will void with $24 million in dead money, and Michael Thomas' contract is likely to void as well, which would add another $18 million to the discard pile.

There is young talent on both sides of the ball here, but there's no escaping the destruction that is going to come from moving on from the veteran core. The Saints have repeatedly pushed that reality into the future and have been willing to pay for decreasing production from those players over the past few seasons. In doing so, they've squeezed themselves so thin that they probably can't take just a single season and reset in the way that, say, the Rams did this season. This will be a multiyear process to even set up the rebuild, and if the coach they're trying to hire knows how the cap works, that's going to be a negative for the team's appeal.

With that being the case, it's more likely that the Saints would simply try to hire an offensive-leaning coach to replace Allen and try to run it back with the same core at least one more time. That might be enough to win their division in 2024, but they will be a year older, going up against younger teams and facing a tougher schedule. That scenario might not be as appealing to promising coaches as New Orleans fans hope.

 

7. Washington Commanders

Pros: Halo effect from new ownership, low expectations, draft capital

Cons: Subpar facilities, lack of star talent at key positions, need to rebuild culture

What has happened in Washington isn't really Ron Rivera's fault, but somebody else is probably going to be the one attempting to solve the issue that has vexed everyone short of Joe Gibbs for 30 years: How do the Commanders build a consistent winner? They haven't won a playoff game since 2005 or advanced out of the divisional round since Gibbs won his last Super Bowl in 1992.

One big difference is the next coach won't be beginning his tenure under team owner Daniel Snyder. With Josh Harris headlining the group of investors that purchased the team last summer, the natural comparison here is to another team Harris took over: the Philadelphia 76ers. Harris famously hired Sam Hinkie and embarked on what has become known as "The Process," a to-the-studs rebuild that eventually yielded Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons, albeit after Hinkie resigned from the team in 2016.

There's no guarantee that the Commanders will tank or embark on a similar sort of meandering rebuild, but at the very least, Harris was willing to sign off on an extensive rebuild that was going to take multiple seasons. They have a few talented players, but they're not one quarterback or one draft away from competing for a Super Bowl. Any coach or general manager who comes here is going to be both pitching and operating on a long-term timeline for success.

While the Commanders aren't as bereft of talent as other teams in this article, they don't have the sort of players that the vast majority of teams around the league are built around. The most expensive positions to fill are quarterback, edge rusher, wide receiver, defensive tackle and cornerback. Washington has Terry McLaurin at wide receiver and the duo of Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne at defensive tackle, but all three are already on second contracts and likely to be approaching or in their 30s by the time there's meaningful help around them.

With apologies to what has been a high-octane year for sophomore quarterback Sam Howell, the Commanders don't have much to be excited about at those other positions. The jury is still out on rookie first-round pick Emmanuel Forbes, and they need to start hitting on draft picks at positions they'll have trouble filling in free agency. They'll have extra second- and third-round picks from the trades they made at the deadline involving Montez Sweat and Chase Young, which will help. If they end up with a pick that has significant trade value for one of the teams wanting to add a quarterback, the Commanders will need to give that deal serious thought.

Cutting ties with one of the last remnants of the Snyder regime will buy the new coach some time, but this is also going to be a job where the public-facing executives running things are going to need to be friendlier and more open than usual. The new regime is going to need to do whatever possible to reignite the passion of lapsed Commanders fans, and for the next couple of years, it won't be the quality of the play on the field or the comfort of the stadium. If you pay attention to coaching news conferences around the league, you'll see that openness and warmth aren't exactly qualities some coaches care to exude.

 

6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pros: Talent on both sides of the ball, no state income tax, easy division

Cons: No franchise quarterback, difficult cap situation

Not many teams are simultaneously in first place and on a list for potential coach openings in December, but the NFC South is a unique place. The Bucs moved into first after a last-minute victory over the Falcons on Sunday, albeit in a division in which the top three teams are all 6-7. Wins over the Saints and Panthers to end the season would likely be enough to get them into the postseason. We saw the Titans part ways with Mike Mularkey in 2017 even after winning a playoff game, but advancing into the playoffs for the second consecutive year should be enough for Todd Bowles to keep his job.

If the Buccaneers do move on from Bowles, they'll be one of several teams with two disparate paths forward. Tampa has $47 million in cap space next year, but it has one of the most significant free agent classes of any team, with a group that includes Mike Evans, Devin White, Lavonte David, Baker Mayfield and Antoine Winfield Jr. Will general manager Jason Licht want to use that money to bring back his veterans and try to rerun this team in 2024? Or is it time for the Buccaneers to rebuild and try to compete again in 2025 and beyond?

The lack of serious competition in the NFC South will probably encourage a more aggressive path for the Buccaneers, which will also influence their coaching hire. Mayfield has played solidly enough to return with some sort of modest raise on his $4 million guarantee from 2023. Winfield is a star. Evans is having a vintage season at age 30. In a division in which eight wins were enough to get them a division title in 2022 and might be enough to repeat the feat in 2023, they don't have to aspire to be great to host a playoff game.

We could split the difference. Tampa could choose to bring the vets back, re-sign Mayfield and then take a big swing on one of the second- or third-tier quarterbacks in the first round of April's draft. In that path, it would likely behoove the Bucs to pursue an offensive-minded head coach, although first-year coordinator Dave Canales has done solid work with Mayfield this season. Unlike with a team like the Bears, who will likely have their pick of the 2024 draft class with the No. 1 overall selection, nobody will be able to come to Tampa Bay and be sure that the team will land the quarterback it wants in the draft.

Tampa made the most meaningful free agent signing of the past decade when it imported Tom Brady from New England, so we know it can sell even the best players on a plan. Florida has warm weather and no state income tax, which are factors that will always appeal to players in free agency. Coaches will have an easier time recruiting there than they will in Green Bay or Buffalo. The Bucs also make more money themselves, which adds up over five years on a fully guaranteed deal. All of those factors make the Bucs' opportunity a more appealing one than it might seem at first glance.

 

5. New England Patriots

Pros: Draft capital, potential path to a quarterback, defense, stable ownership

Cons: Old roster devoid of offensive talent, fan base agitating for success, shadow of greatest coach ever

It's not easy to follow the greats. In 1968, Phil Bengtson took over for Vince Lombardi in Green Bay and lasted three seasons. In 1991, Bill Parcells left the Giants and handed over coaching duties to Ray Handley, who was so shook by his two years at the helm that he never coached at any level again. Chip Kelly took over for Andy Reid in Philadelphia in 2013 and was out after three years. With George Seifert (49ers) and Mike Tomlin (Steelers) as notable exceptions, coaches don't often want to be the guy replacing "The Guy."

Things might be different with the Patriots because the guy isn't leaving on a high note. Had Bill Belichick left with Tom Brady after a 12-4 season in 2019, the task of replacing one of the most legendary coaches in football history would have seemed incalculable. After three losing seasons in the ensuing four years, though, the thought of parting ways with Belichick isn't as unthinkable to Patriots fans as it might have seemed. Frankly, after two decades of winning double-digit games as a reflex, there's a significant number of New England fans who seem ready for fresh blood.

I already wrote at length earlier this year about how the Patriots ended up in this situation, so I won't rehash those concerns. I'll note that they have a 75% chance of ending up with one of the top two picks in next year's draft, which would make this job much more desirable. It's difficult to imagine a coach taking over with the intention of guaranteeing Mac Jones' fifth-year option for 2025, which would leave the quarterback as a lame-duck starter or a possible trade candidate.

Even without Matthew Judon (biceps) and breakout rookie Christian Gonzalez (shoulder) for most of the season, Belichick has managed to right the ship on defense. While not exactly facing a brutal schedule of opposing quarterbacks, the Pats are allowing a league-best 1.1 points per possession over the past five games. He's doing that with Jahlani Tavai, Anfernee Jennings, J.C. Jackson and Mack Wilson getting regular work. It would be tough to imagine the Patriots thriving as consistently on defense if Belichick left town, even if an assistant such as Jerod Mayo inherited the job.

It's simultaneously hard to argue the offense wouldn't get a much-needed fresh start. There aren't many building blocks on that side of the ball, and two of the players who have been positives during their tenure are pending free agent Mike Onwenu and running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who is eligible for a new deal after the season. The Pats can bring back the interior of their line with Cole Strange, David Andrews and rookie Sidy Sow, but this team needs both an influx of talent and a coach who will get the most out of that speed. It'll be a serious challenge, especially if the Patriots do want to hire an offensive-minded coach.

One positive for potential coaches is that the Krafts generally have had very good taste in hires. Robert Kraft took over in 1994 with Parcells at the helm and has needed to make only two head-coaching hires since: Belichick and Pete Carroll, who coached the Pats from 1997 to 1999. You could argue the Pats were a little aggressive in firing Carroll after he went 27-21 in three seasons with the team, but generally, they are regarded as one of the more stable, hands-off operations in the league. That will appeal to coaches, especially ones who have worked with irascible or erratic owners in prior jobs.

The AFC East might also be an appealing destination. The Dolphins have one of the league's deepest rosters, but employing Tua Tagovailoa is about to get much more expensive and star wideout Tyreek Hill turns 30 in March. The Jets haven't been very good and are built around a 40-year-old quarterback coming off a torn Achilles. The Bills have declined from their 2020-21 peak and appear set for a retooling around Josh Allen, if not a rebuild. If the Patriots land Drake Maye or Caleb Williams, get the right pieces around a young quarterback and don't slip too much on defense, their path back to contention could be quicker than it feels now.

 

4. New York Jets

Pros: Defense, veteran quarterback, immediate chances of success

Cons: Draft capital, lofty expectations, quarterback uncertainty post-2024

The Jets realistically exist in their own sphere of evaluation separate from the other teams on this list, in part because they've been run in an entirely different way. Just about every decision they made last offseason was more about satisfying Aaron Rodgers than building the best possible roster. Now's not the time to relitigate those choices, but it's safe to say many of them have not worked.

Who takes the blame for those mistakes? Does anybody? It would be fair to say New York never got to see what it would look like with Rodgers on the field and basically treated 2023 as a bad dream. It would also be fair to look at a coach who has gone 16-31 and a general manager with a 25-54 record and wonder if Rodgers could find more successful executives to build a team in what could be his final NFL season.

It seems logical to assume that moving on from Robert Saleh would hurt the Jets' chances of fielding a championship-caliber defense in 2024. While they've made a few big splashes, he has coaxed new levels of play from guys who weren't expected to be standouts, including undrafted free agent Bryce Huff and former Jaguars castoff Quincy Williams. Veterans D.J. Reed and Quinton Jefferson have been better in New York than they were elsewhere. Sauce Gardner isn't suddenly going to turn into a pumpkin overnight if Saleh is fired, but it's tough to believe the coach isn't playing a meaningful role in getting the most out of a very good defense.

On the other hand, hiring an offensive-minded coach might do more to solve New York's problems on its weaker side of the ball. A second-half outburst against the Texans in Week 14 was a rare respite in what has been a disastrous season on offense. While Rodgers' injury cost the Jets any semblance of a ceiling, what has happened without him has exposed weaknesses throughout the lineup. They have one excellent playmaker in Garrett Wilson, a player who has flashed but mostly struggled in Breece Hall and little else. They would be better with Rodgers, of course, but he alone wouldn't make the offense great.

Would a healthy-ish Rodgers and a defense that is ranked among the league's best be appealing to the right coach? Of course. How many of these other jobs have a realistic chance of competing for a Super Bowl next season? Expectations are going to be extremely high in New York, which would make this job difficult, but it would also be appealing to a coach who wants to win immediately. Bruce Arians joined the Bucs before Tom Brady, but the Kangol-ed former Cardinals coach certainly didn't regret taking on a job with short-term upside when Tampa won a Super Bowl in the 2020 season.

With that said, there's a lot of work to be done this offseason to even have a shot at competing in 2024. Huff is a free agent, as are Jefferson and Jordan Whitehead. The Jets sorely need playmakers and offensive line help and won't have much cap space, even with Rodgers' cap hit down to $17.2 million. They're also going to send their second-round pick to the Packers as part of the Rodgers trade compensation.

It might also be a one-season shot at glory. Rodgers might retire after 2024, leaving the Jets with nothing at quarterback and $49 million in dead money on their salary cap. Wilson and Gardner will be eligible for new extensions at the same time. The 2025 Jets could end up looking a lot like the 2023 Buccaneers as a team with plenty of talented players but without the quarterback or depth needed to really compete for a division title. Any coach who wants to sign up for what could be an exhilarating 2024 will probably need to be on board with a retooling after Rodgers retires, if not something closer to a rebuild.

Flags fly forever, though, and while there are plenty of coaches who want to try to build a franchise from the ground up in their image, I imagine it wouldn't be hard to find a veteran who wants to inherit Rodgers and that defense and try to win now.

 

3. Atlanta Falcons

Pros: Patient ownership, young talent, subpar division

Cons: Major questions at quarterback, possibility of a limited budget after a 2023 spending spree

The Falcons are like the NFC's version of the Bengals. Cincinnati used the draft to stock up with playmakers and went through free agency to build its defense. So did Atlanta. The Falcons have a better offensive line, but the general roster-building plan is similar.

There's one very significant difference. The Bengals used the No. 1 pick in 2020 to land Joe Burrow. The Falcons passed on Justin Fields to draft Kyle Pitts in 2021, selected Desmond Ridder in the third round of the 2022 draft, then didn't move up to take Anthony Richardson with the No. 3 pick in 2023. Bijan Robinson has been exciting as a rookie, but the preseason talk about how he was going to be used as a unique playmaker has mostly turned out to be nonsense. Robinson has six catches for 58 yards on 46 routes out of the slot all season, and 33 of those yards came on a glorified jet sweep last Sunday.

While the offense has dominated the conversation, the defense has been what has fueled the Falcons. With Jessie Bates III in the middle of an All-Pro season, the Falcons rank seventh in QBR allowed and expected points added (EPA) per play. It's an unfamiliar concept in Atlanta, where the defense hasn't been above-average since 2017, but this is the best defense it has rolled out in a long time.

So, the Falcons have a resurgent defense, exciting young playmakers (who rarely see the ball) and a quarterback who has already been benched once in 2023. A new coaching regime would have no allegiance to Ridder, who ranks 24th in QBR with four games to go. There will be some coaches who see a Falcons opening and think that they could make better use of Atlanta's highly drafted receivers with better quarterback play and more obvious playcalling.

Arthur Blank has generally been one of the NFL's most patient team owners, which is a reason this opening is unlikely to become available. Jim Mora got three years. Bobby Petrino left after one year, but Mike Smith was in the job for seven seasons. Dan Quinn was fired partway through his sixth season. Then again, Mora, Mike Smith and Quinn all made the playoffs within two seasons of taking over; Arthur Smith would be finishing his third season without a playoff berth if the Falcons don't make it in 2023.

 

Will Blank want to spend heavily on a quarterback? He has never hesitated to back his coaches before, but the Falcons went on a spending spree last offseason, signing six of their 10 most oft-used defensive players this season in free agency while also handing out big contracts to offensive linemen Kaleb McGary and Chris Lindstrom. The Falcons have over $30 million in cap space, so they'll have room to work with, but most coaches prefer to be present during the season when the vast majority is spent, not the year after. Given that there's still room in the budget and enough to be excited about around the questions at quarterback, I suspect the Falcons would draw plenty of interest if we see a split between the league's two Arthurs after the year.

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2. Los Angeles Chargers

Pros: Franchise quarterback, top-end talent on both sides of the ball, location
Cons: Lofty expectations, perennial home-field disadvantage, roster in transition, division

Come coach Justin Herbert. Those four words are enough to make this job more appealing than the majority of the other opportunities out there, especially for the offensive-minded coaches who will draw the most attention this offseason. If you're Lions coordinator Ben Johnson, why coach Bryce Young, Justin Fields or even Drake Maye when you can take over a team that has Herbert, a 25-year-old capable of making any throw on the field? It's tempting to just leave the explanation there.

Over the past few years, the Chargers have boasted a core as exciting as that of any other team. As we hit the end of a disappointing 2023 campaign, though, that core doesn't seem quite as appealing. Austin Ekeler is coming off his worst season as a starter and is about to hit free agency. Keenan Allen is 31 and coming due for a new deal. Mike Williams missed most of 2023 with a torn ACL and is about to enter the final year of his pact. Corey Linsley has been sidelined since September with a heart condition. Rookie first-round pick Quentin Johnston is having one of the worst rookie seasons we've seen from a wide receiver.

Things are worrisome on the defensive side of the ball, too. J.C. Jackson turned out to be a disastrous free agent signing, and the Chargers had to eat significant money to deal him to the Patriots. Fellow starting corner Michael Davis was benched earlier this season. Kenneth Murray Jr. never developed into even a solid linebacker and will be a free agent after the season. Joey Bosa, meanwhile, has missed 16 games over the past two seasons and has played more than 60% of the defensive snaps in a game just twice since October 2022.

There are unquestionable positives. Khalil Mack is having a resurgent season, although he's 32 and about to enter the final year of his contract. Derwin James Jr. is still an excellent safety, albeit one with a penchant for committing personal fouls. Rashawn Slater and Jamaree Salyer are building blocks up front. The Chargers' special teams, a longtime weakness, is the league's best this season by DVOA.

The dream of a coach coming in and landing a plug-and-play championship roster is gone. Herbert is no longer on a rookie deal, and while his cap hit won't rise north of $20 million until 2025, the next coach won't have the same sort of bargain-contract quarterback Brandon Staley had for his tenure with this team. Slater is due for a new deal after 2023 as well. The Chargers are $44 million over the projected cap next year, so while they can and will restructure deals to make the calculations work, this is a very different situation than the one Staley inherited in 2020.

 

Is it still appealing? Of course. Herbert is Herbert. Players are always going to want to play in Los Angeles, even if the Chargers have a bad habit of having their stadium overrun by opposition fans. (Herbert is just 16-16 at home, and his numbers are slightly better on the road than they are in Inglewood, which is not usually the case for quarterbacks who play their home games in what amounts to a dome.) Being stuck in a division with Patrick Mahomes isn't going to be fun, but most coaches will feel like they have a shot to beat anybody with Herbert on the field. I'm just not sure what's around him is quite as appealing as it seemed a few years ago.

---

1. Chicago Bears

Pros: Draft capital, access to potential star quarterback, young roster
Cons: High-stakes decision to be made immediately, significant work needed on line of scrimmage

Thanks to the trade with the Panthers from last March, the Bears have a 99% chance of landing one of the top two picks in the 2024 draft. They have just under a 95% chance of landing the No. 1 pick outright, which would put them in an enviable position. They would be able to keep Justin Fields, use the pick they're landing from Carolina to trade down and amass a franchise-altering amount of draft capital. They could also draft Drake Maye or Caleb Williams and trade Fields to one of the teams that isn't in position to land its new passer. Plus, their own pick is projected to land at No. 7, which gives them even more flexibility.

I don't know that a new coach will have the final say in that discussion, but if the Bears do fire Matt Eberflus, whoever they hire will be part of the process in terms of making a final decision about what to do at quarterback. Either option can work: Fields has flashed plenty of promising characteristics, and landing three or four first-round picks is the best path toward building a championship-caliber team. The most valuable asset in football, however, is a Pro Bowl-caliber quarterback with years to go on a rookie deal. Neither option is assured, but whoever takes this job will be intrigued by whichever choice Chicago eventually makes.

At the same time, this isn't going to be an easy call. The new coach will have to be involved in this process without ever working with Fields or spending much time with general manager Ryan Poles. It's a good choice to have, but if the Bears and their new coach get it wrong, it might be enough to sink that coach's tenure with the organization. That's not going to preclude many coaches from being willing to join if they believe in whoever ends up quarterbacking this team, but it's a reality of the situation: The biggest call of this coach's life is going to be made with imperfect information.

While the Bears have shown signs of life on both sides of the ball and could be 7-6 with some better work holding on to fourth-quarter leads this season, even the most hard-core fans would admit there's more to be done to build this team into a contender. Montez Sweat will lock down one edge rusher spot for years to come, but the Bears need a second edge rusher and an interior disruptor. Braxton Jones might not be the long-term left tackle. If free agents Jaylon Johnson and Darnell Mooney leave after the season, Chicago will need new starters at wide receiver and cornerback.

The Bears still need stars on both sides of the football, but with the league's third-youngest roster, the players Poles has added over the past couple of seasons still have time to develop. This will be the most important offseason of his tenure, given that the general manager will need to make decisions about whether he wants to replace his coach and quarterback in a matter of weeks. While it can be nerve-racking to see the coach before the new hire get fired two seasons into a rebuild, I don't think Poles will lack for options if the Bears want to lean toward a more offensive-minded replacement for Eberflus in 2024.

Keim disagrees with this on his pod. Ranking Chicago #1 is a joke. Their owner is a sweet old lady but the culture there is not about winning 

[Rufus T Firefly]

8 minutes ago, method man said:

Keim disagrees with this on his pod. Ranking Chicago #1 is a joke. Their owner is a sweet old lady but the culture there is not about winning 

It's the top job because they will be able to pick Caleb Williams and another top ten pick and a lot of cap space. 

 

That to go with what is looking like a good young OLine, Cole Kmet and DJ Moore. Very attractive opportunity. 

[FootballZombie]

17 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

That to go with what is looking like a good young OLine, Cole Kmet and DJ Moore. Very attractive opportunity. 

 

Their D is on the upswing too.

 

I can see arguing its not #1, but that Bears package is very attractive.

[method man]

4 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Their D is on the upswing too.

 

I can see arguing its not #1, but that Bears package is very attractive.

It is attractive but despite all the assets, I don’t think it is #1. You have subpar ownership and presumably Poles to deal with as well (outside of the Young trade, his drafts and FA signings have not been impressive). You are also not inheriting any blue chip players on that roster. (By blue chip, I mean All Pros)

[SonnySideUp]

6 hours ago, RWJ said:

I have tried to connect the dots to Shen and it appears that Breer seems to be doing the same, however the last hire, Tim McGrath doesn't have any connections to either the Ravens or Shen, that I can tell.  Shen knows both Ian Cunningham, Asst. GM with Bears and MacDonald, DC with the Ravens.  This search is going to be fun and interesting to watch, I think, or shall I say, I hope!  Joe Hortiz was around when Shen was there and has been with the Ravens since 1998.  Pretty good resume' Guess what?  He's from Philly born and raised, too.

 

 

McGrath's experience has mostly been with hockey and rugby in Australia and England, as well as with the NBA in the USA. The connection to Harris is through the hockey and NBA activity I'm sure. The logic in his hire is that both hockey and rugby are probably more violent sports than football and if someone is successful in preventing/treating injuries in those sports, they would be as effective in football also.

 

Another aspect of his hire is that he seems to place considerable emphasis on *preventing* injuries before they occur through sound physical therapy and wellness techniques ratther than just treating them after they occur. This should be a big change for this team, which has had a history of players getting injured any time someone looks sideways at them. 

 

This looks to me like another case of Josh getting out ahead of the other owners, which I love.

 

https://au.linkedin.com/in/tim-mcg

 

>>Tim McGrath

Player Health & Performance, PhD

Canberra, Australian Capital Territory, Australia

2K followers 500+ connections

 

Tim is a registered Sports Physiotherapist / Physical Therapist with over 20 years professional practice & professional sport experience since graduating in 2002. Tim completed his PhD from the Research Institute of Sports & Exercise (UCRISE) at the University of Canberra on the topic of ACL rehabilitation and return to sport following knee injury in 2016. Tim’s clinical expertise focuses on lower limb rehabilitation, and he regularly conducts clinical consultancy to professional sporting teams within Australia and also overseas for complex cases following lower limb injury. He developed Pitch Ready (www.pitch-ready.com) which combines cutting-edge data science with clinical insights to optimize squad-based injury prevention strategies across organizations as well as return to sport decision-making following lower limb injury. Tim also founded Elite Rehab which is a large multidisciplinary allied health practice in Canberra (www.ersportsphysio.com.au). He is currently licensed as a Physiotherapist in Australia and the UK, and as a Physical Therapist in the USA (New York & Pennsylvania).

Tim has provided clinical consultancy for multiple professional teams within the following competitions:

National Basketball Association (NBA) – USA
Major League Rugby (MLR) – USA
English Premier League (EPL) - UK
English Premiership Rugby - UK
Australian Football League (AFL & AFL-W) – AUS
National Rugby League (NRL) – AUS
Super Rugby & Super-W Rugby – AUS
A-League – AUS
World Rugby Sevens (Mens & Womens) – AUS
National Hockey League (NHL) – USA

In addition to his undergraduate Physiotherapy degree and PhD, Tim has completed a post-graduate Master’s Degree in Sports Physiotherapy and Musculoskeletal Physiotherapy. He has also completed a Graduate Diploma in Extended-Scope Physiotherapy and a Graduate Certificate in Data Science. He has lectured extensively in sports physiotherapy courses & other health professions and has authored publications in peer-reviewed journals (see research page of Elite Rehab website http://www.ersportsphysio.com.au/ersp/research/).<<

Edited December 16, 2023 by SonnySideUp

[HigSkin]

13 hours ago, RWJ said:

Tim McGrath doesn't have any connections to either the Ravens or Shen, that I can tell.  

 

 

Harris used his group with the 76er's.  🙂

 

[Thinking Skins]

 

 

[DWinzit]

Cons for Washington - need to rebuild culture 

[Chris 44]

22 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Cons for Washington - need to rebuild culture 

Yep, good thing for a new hire though  is it would be hard to **** it up worse than it already is. Lol could probably say this for the entire organization.

Edited December 16, 2023 by Chris 44

[DWinzit]

1 hour ago, Chris 44 said:

Yep, good thing for a new hire though  is it would be hard to **** it up worse than it already is. Lol could probably say this for the entire organization.

Poor Ron getting dissed...I thought that was the one thing he brought to Washington. It is shame he packed this year in before it began. To me he destroyed any positive legacy he built

 

Edited December 16, 2023 by DWinzit
Grammar edit

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, HigSkin said:

 

Harris used his group with the 76er's.  🙂

 

Thank you, HigSkin.  Check out Joe Hortiz bio.  He's had some excellent drafts.  I know a lot of people want and OC as HC and I can't argue but the Raven's D is pretty good and Mike MacDonald as HC and Joe Hortiz as GM would be a good get, if that is where they are headed.  

[88Comrade2000]

One thing Josh should do is have a pathway for minorities.  Give opportunities for minorities on the coaching staff and front ; so that other teams will want them.  San Francisco has gotten those extra comp picks because teams have hired minorities employed by them as coaches and front office:

[method man]

20 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

One thing Josh should do is have a pathway for minorities.  Give opportunities for minorities on the coaching staff and front ; so that other teams will want them.  San Francisco has gotten those extra comp picks because teams have hired minorities employed by them as coaches and front office:

Yep. They get those 3rd round comp picks every year for the minority hires. Maybe that places Evero over all other DC candidates

[Andre The Giant]

JJ says Harris (and Tepper) were the most active owners networking with the Accelerator candidates at this week’s owners meeting.  The candidate list is in this article. 
 

https://www.nfl.com/news/front-office-general-manager-accelerator-to-be-held-during-december-league-meeti

 

 

Edited December 16, 2023 by Andre The Giant

[SoCalSkins]

6 hours ago, DWinzit said:

Cons for Washington - need to rebuild culture 

I disagree. Harvest fest is top notch. How can you improve on it? The culture is damn good if you don’t count the business side, front office, coaching staff, scouting department, gameday experience or performance on the field.

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, Andre The Giant said:

JJ says Harris (and Tepper) were the most active owners networking with the Accelerator candidates at this week’s owners meeting.  The candidate list is in this article. 
 

https://www.nfl.com/news/front-office-general-manager-accelerator-to-be-held-during-december-league-meeti

 

 

I hope we shoot for the moon and go for Joe Hortiz from Balt. or Ian Cunningham from da Bears!  

[NoVaSkins21]

If Harris and Co. can get the right GM and HC, this doesn't have to be a total tear down.  The right GM can get vets like Jon Allen and Terry on board for the future and it doesn't have to be a lengthy process

Edited December 17, 2023 by NoVaSkins21

[boston skins fan]

I keep seeing Catherine Reitche name as a possible candidate but its seems it might be a year or 2 early doesnt seem to have the exp of Cunningham Horitz or Halaby.  If im Harris after that conferance id interview the top 10 that impressed you from that conference and a few other names like Halaby, horitz and whoever the other the top names at that werent at the conference.  Cast a wide net and maybe you pull a pitt tomlin situation where a candidtate you didnt think has a chance impresses you and gets the gig.

Edited December 17, 2023 by boston skins fan

[FootballZombie]

Ben Johnson trying to get a job.

[RWJ]

.

Edited December 17, 2023 by RWJ

[skinzplay]

The key now is the coaching staff. I'd imagine the ownership group has a pretty good idea already who they want in that capacity. For coaching staff, we can't dilly dally and wait.........otherwise we wind up with Whartons coaching the OL. Our designated GM needs to have a HC candidate with SOLID commitments from coordinators and position coaches.

[philibusters]

On 12/15/2023 at 9:49 PM, Rufus T Firefly said:

It's the top job because they will be able to pick Caleb Williams and another top ten pick and a lot of cap space. 

 

That to go with what is looking like a good young OLine, Cole Kmet and DJ Moore. Very attractive opportunity. 

 

I agree with the top two in the ranking: the Bears and the Chargers.  How he ranked 3-10, I would change up quite a bit.

 

Atlanta doesn't seem desirable because it seems like the type of job where you stay mediocre for a while because you are expected to compete right away with a decent roster that is lacking a potential franchise QB.  If they trade for Justin Fields, you can certainly make the playoffs with that roster, but you are probably looking at 10-7 or 9-8.  The roster is solid, not great, and no QB, and because you'll likely be picking in the middle of the 1st round, it won't necessarily be easy to get that QB to build around.

 

I don't think New England is attractive.  Its a complete rebuild, which some potential coaches may like, but you have very little to work with on offense in your first couple years and you are taking over a defense that has a lot of older good players (though unlike the offense it has more young good players too) where it is going to be tough for it to meet the production it had under Belichick.  One nice thing about New England is you should have the pick to get your QB this draft.  Possibly QB 2 in a strong QB draft.

 

Maybe it is the homer in me, but I would probably put the Commanders third.  The homer in my says Josh Harris will be an involved owner but not domineering which is fairly ideal and we likely either have a young QB on the roster already or will have a high enough pick to get QB 3 in what looks to be a pretty solid draft class.