2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[Rufus T Firefly]

39 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Tough call.  If we beat the Jets and lets say are out of the top 3 QB sweepstakes.  

 

I am still digesting the Wrs but I think Nabers might end up #2 for me.  I love Bowers.  And I like Fashanu better than some others here.  Ditto Alt.

 

For example Nabers versus Bowers versus Fashanu -- I don't have a strong opinion either way.

 

Lets say we pick 6

 

Bears -- Caleb Williams

Pats -- Drake Maye

Cards -- Marvin Harrison

Jets -- Fashanu

Giants -- Daniels

Washington

 

That's my best guess that would leave Alt, Nabers, Bowers. If you put a gun to my head I'd take Bowers but its close.  I'd trade down if I could.

 

Good depth at WR with Oduzne, Legete, mayne Coleman in a trade down.  Ditto at RT with Mims, Fauga, Latham, Morgan, Guyton.

Don't be surprised if JJ McCarthy becomes a serious consideration in that scenario.

[method man]

9 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I would absolutely love it if this FO let the draft come to them, and really valued future assets. For example:

 

What if we got to the #2 pick, but did not feel we HAD to go QB. We prioritized adding draft capital. What if the Pats are at #4 and we are at #2. We could get their 2nd and future 1st to swap picks. They draft Drake Maye. Cardinals at #3 go Marvin Harrison, Jr. We are back on the clock at #4 ... we now have the option to draft Jayden Daniels at #4 having added a 2025 1st and owning three early 2nd round picks. Draft Jayden Daniels at #4. Package two of the 2nds to move into the middle 1st and draft an OT. You get the QB, LT, maintain a 2/3/3 through Day 2, and add a future potentially high 1st round pick? 

 

This sort of scenario could only play out if the front office took a passive approach to the first pick. Maximize draft capital, and see what happens. But you'd need to go into the draft / this scenario understanding you may not get your future QB. If the Cardinals traded out of #3 and someone came up ahead of us to take Daniels ... well now you go LT with the #4 pick ... and you've still added a future 1st if you want to go QB next year. And you could use your added #2 to get a QB that falls. So many different scenarios could play out with a FO that goes into the draft with the future in mind and not married to a QB. I know I am in fantasy land with this scenario. But that would be a cool approach that could ultimately pay off in spades long term.

If you are set on Howell, if we were to land the #3 or #4 pick and a team were to offer a couple firsts a a couple seconds to move up, it is tempting but I am taking MHJ if he is there.

[kingdaddy]

3 hours ago, skinny21 said:

Foregoing qb and being on the receiving end of a bidding war for our pick is pretty darn tempting, especially if we only drop back a couple/few slots.  Trade back for a 2025 1st, plus a second day pick this year and we could trade back into the 1st while still holding two 2nds and two 3rds (or one 2nd and three 3rds, etc depending on the trade back compensation).  We’ll probably screw that possibility up by winning vs the Jets of course… sigh.

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

This is almost certainly going to be an option and if the new regime believes in Sam it's almost likely that we do this. So much of what we do revolves around how good Sam can be....or not. I can see Atlanta, Vegas and Pittsburgh all trying to move up to get our pick if it's in the top 4. The NYG would probably try too but **** them. Whoever our new GM is has the future of this franchise in his hands so we'd better get the right guy to buy the groceries. 

[Skinsinparadise]

13 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Don't be surprised if JJ McCarthy becomes a serious consideration in that scenario.

 

Maybe.  Wonder if he declares though.  He might get lost in the sauce in this class.  He's right now not willing to say if he's declaring.

[Rufus T Firefly]

39 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Maybe.  Wonder if he declares though.  He might get lost in the sauce in this class.  He's right now not willing to say if he's declaring.

Yeah, it's obviously an "if."

 

If they win the title, I would think eh declares.

 

I also think people are thinking he is the top of next year's class and that is a reason to stay. But I think Sanders is in that discussion, Ewers sounds like is going back. There's Drew Allar, Milroe. I've heard people mention Conner Wiegman and Ty Thompson as guys who could emerge. Some people think Carson Beck.

 

If he's worried about getting lost in this year's class, the same thing could easily happen in 25. But I think a lot of NFL teams will be interested and I think he'll know that. My guess is he comes out but what do I know? (shut up)

 

[skinny21]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Tough call.  If we beat the Jets and lets say are out of the top 3 QB sweepstakes.  

 

I am still digesting the Wrs but I think Nabers might end up #2 for me.  I love Bowers.  And I like Fashanu better than some others here.  Ditto Alt.

 

For example Nabers versus Bowers versus Fashanu -- I don't have a strong opinion either way.

 

Lets say we pick 6

 

Bears -- Caleb Williams

Pats -- Drake Maye

Cards -- Marvin Harrison

Jets -- Fashanu

Giants -- Daniels

Washington

 

That's my best guess that would leave Alt, Nabers, Bowers. If you put a gun to my head I'd take Bowers but its close.  I'd trade down if I could.

 

Good depth at WR with Oduzne, Legete, mayne Coleman in a trade down.  Ditto at RT with Mims, Fauga, Latham, Morgan, Guyton.

Yeah, Bowers is appealing because of the depth at the other spots and questionable TE depth… but I could be reading the tea leaves wrong.

[Skinsinparadise]

10 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Yeah, it's obviously an "if."

 

If they win the title, I would think eh declares.

 

I also think people are thinking he is the top of next year's class and that is a reason to stay. But I think Sanders is in that discussion, Ewers sounds like is going back. There's Drew Allar, Milroe. I've heard people mention Conner Wiegman and Ty Thompson as guys who could emerge. Some people think Carson Beck.

 

If he's worried about getting lost in this year's class, the same thing could easily happen in 25. But I think a lot of NFL teams will be interested and I think he'll know that. My guess is he comes out but what do I know? (shut up)

 

 

I only mentioned "if" he declares because I'd be surprised (but not shocked) if he does so I haven't given McCarthy much thought.  He was one of the first players I mentioned at the outset of this years draft thread.  I was impressed with his mobility in particular watching his Ohio State game from the previous season.  But if he declaes I'll dive in.

 

From the QBs I've watched I think the 2025 class is IMO potentially garbage.  But will see.    So I am not of the thought he could get lost in the 2025 class.  But who knows.   Things about any class of course can change.  But at the moment IMHO and some other observers the 2024 looks better than 2025 at least at the top.

Edited December 22, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Rufus T Firefly]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I only mentioned "if" he declares because I'd be surprised (but not shocked) if he does so I haven't given McCarthy much thought.  He was one of the first players I mentioned at the outset of this years draft thread.  I was impressed with his mobility in particular watching his Ohio State game from the previous season.  But if he declaes I'll dive in.

 

From the QBs I've watched I think the 2025 class is IMO potentially garbage.  But will see.    So I am not of the thought he could get lost in the 2025 class.  But who knows.   Things about any class of course can change.  But at the moment IMHO and some other observers the 2024 looks better than 2025 at least at the top.

To be clear, I don't think he will get "lost" in the 25 class. I just don't think he will get lost in either.

 

As for next year's class, I think Sanders has the potential to be really good. I think Ewers is very similar to McCarthy, guys with a lot of talent who need to develop some more. I have no idea what kind of strides Milroe could take, and I haven't seen some of the other guys. 

 

I just don't think, I were him, I would put off a year of NFL service time because I was afraid of how god this class was and risk having the same thing happen in a year. 

 

But, to be crystal clear, I don't think any of that happens. I think NFL people regard him more highly than the average mock drafter and he will go high. If he stays in school, it'll likely be because he thinks he need s another year of development or he loses int he playoff and wants to try again next year. 

[MrJL]

so a funny thing I've noticed on mocks recently, these guys have the Bears trading Fields and getting a first for him

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 hour ago, MrJL said:

so a funny thing I've noticed on mocks recently, these guys have the Bears trading Fields and getting a first for him

This was discussed on SXM a few weeks ago and they said they’d likely get a 1st for Fields because of the QB landscape in the NFL and his upside. Mentioned Atlanta or Minnesota. Although I’d have a hard time seeing the Bears trade him within the division. 

[method man]

8 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

This was discussed on SXM a few weeks ago and they said they’d likely get a 1st for Fields because of the QB landscape in the NFL and his upside. Mentioned Atlanta or Minnesota. Although I’d have a hard time seeing the Bears trade him within the division. 

I don’t buy it given he has a year left on his rookie deal (if the option is not exercised) and he has not proven he consistently wins as a passer

[MrJL]

43 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

This was discussed on SXM a few weeks ago and they said they’d likely get a 1st for Fields because of the QB landscape in the NFL and his upside. Mentioned Atlanta or Minnesota. Although I’d have a hard time seeing the Bears trade him within the division. 

 

if he still has upside, why are people so sure he's going to be traded

 

His upside should be backup at this point

[Voice_of_Reason]

On 12/21/2023 at 7:23 AM, Skinsinparadise said:

Agree

And you have me a hard time about writing war and peace?   Hmmmmmmm???????

 

 

[dyst]

3 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

This was discussed on SXM a few weeks ago and they said they’d likely get a 1st for Fields because of the QB landscape in the NFL and his upside. Mentioned Atlanta or Minnesota. Although I’d have a hard time seeing the Bears trade him within the division. 

If Fields could net a 1st, Howell could net 2 or 3 1st. 

[Skinsinparadise]

On 12/22/2023 at 12:51 PM, Rufus T Firefly said:

To be clear, I don't think he will get "lost" in the 25 class. I just don't think he will get lost in either.

 

As for next year's class, I think Sanders has the potential to be really good. I think Ewers is very similar to McCarthy, guys with a lot of talent who need to develop some more. I have no idea what kind of strides Milroe could take, and I haven't seen some of the other guys. 

 

I just don't think, I were him, I would put off a year of NFL service time because I was afraid of how god this class was and risk having the same thing happen in a year. 

 

But, to be crystal clear, I don't think any of that happens. I think NFL people regard him more highly than the average mock drafter and he will go high. If he stays in school, it'll likely be because he thinks he need s another year of development or he loses int he playoff and wants to try again next year. 

 

Don't know.  Sanders to me is 3rd or 4th QB in this class but #1 right now in the next one.  I think McCarthy with another year has a chance to rise.  In this class I think he's 4th. 

 

Matt Miller wrote an article which I posted where he asked NFL scouts.  They told him right now in 2025 the top 3 are:  Sanders, Ewers, Beck.    Personally I think McCarthy is better than Ewers and Beck. Though granted players grow and another might emerge.

 

Matt Miller said some are high on him.  Though he mentioned others too on that front.

 

The attraction for me is I were McCarthy is to potentially be the 2nd Qb in the 2025 draft, maybe even #1.  But if you are right and the NFL values him higher than most mock draft types think then sure he should jump in.   I think bottom line I'd want to be top 10 in his shoes.   That would be enough. Regardless if it is top 5.

 

My opinion on McCarthy is based on casually watching him in real time.  I'll study him if he jumps into the draft.   He made major strides this season from the previous one especially accuracy wise.  When I've watched him he's very accurate on the first and 2nd level -- and is dangerous as a runner so am surprised at his low YPC number.  He's fast.   With his mobility and another season under his belt I think he can threaten Sanders for the top spot.  But who knows.  Will see.

 

For me, I hope he does come out in this draft.  He intrigues me more than Nix and Penix.  So if they beat the Jets and he's in play, he's on the table for me. Like Daniels I'd like to see him add 10 pounds or so of muscle.  

 

Edited December 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Number 44]

32 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

When I've watched him he's very accurate on the first and 2nd level -- and is dangerous as a runner so am surprised at his low YPC number.

YPC is hard to gauge.  College football stats count sacks as negative rushing yards for the QB.  I don't know how many sacks he had for how much yardage.  Plus, playing for an undefeated team, I would guess that he may have had more than his fair share of kneel-downs, which would negatively impact his YPC number.

[Skinsinparadise]

37 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

YPC is hard to gauge.  College football stats count sacks as negative rushing yards for the QB.  I don't know how many sacks he had for how much yardage.  Plus, playing for an undefeated team, I would guess that he may have had more than his fair share of kneel-downs, which would negatively impact his YPC number.

good point.  his YPC was lower than the typical mobile college QB. But as I said when I’ve watched him the dude could really motor so it didn’t add up 

[Rufus T Firefly]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Don't know.  Sanders to me is 3rd or 4th QB in this class but #1 right now in the next one.  I think McCarthy with another year has a chance to rise.  In this class I think he's 4th. 

 

Matt Miller wrote an article which I posted where he asked NFL scouts.  They told him right now in 2025 the top 3 are:  Sanders, Ewers, Beck.    Personally I think McCarthy is better than Ewers and Beck. Though granted players grow and another might emerge.

 

Matt Miller said some are high on him.  Though he mentioned others too on that front.

 

The attraction for me is I were McCarthy is to potentially be the 2nd Qb in the 2025 draft, maybe even #1.  But if you are right and the NFL values him higher than most mock draft types think then sure he should jump in.   I think bottom line I'd want to be top 10 in his shoes.   That would be enough. Regardless if it is top 5.

 

My opinion on McCarthy is based on casually watching him in real time.  I'll study him if he jumps into the draft.   He made major strides this season from the previous one especially accuracy wise.  When I've watched him he's very accurate on the first and 2nd level -- and is dangerous as a runner so am surprised at his low YPC number.  He's fast.   With his mobility and another season under his belt I think he can threaten Sanders for the top spot.  But who knows.  Will see.

 

For me, I hope he does come out in this draft.  He intrigues me more than Nix and Penix.  So if they beat the Jets and he's in play, he's on the table for me. Like Daniels I'd like to see him add 10 pounds or so of muscle.  

 

Again, my point is there is potential in that class and McCarthy either thinks he can convince teams that he is worth a high pick or he doesn't. Yeah, he's probably in the discussion for 3/4 right now, and maybe he'd be in the discussion for 1/2 next year. But if you're going to go in the top half of the round I don't think that is worth waiting for. 

 

I'm differentiating between the general mock draft types and the ones with connections. There are a thousand guys who do mock drafts and a some of them are good, some of them aren't. I'm not one of these guys who thinks only people who work for NFL teams can know anything about evaluating players. It's football, not quantum physics. I enjoy getting those opinions. Even our guys int he draft thread bring a lot of good knowledge. I mean, not you, but the smart people over there*.

 

(*- this is the second time in as many days I've insulted you. I'm sure it's completely unwarranted, but I guess that's what you get for conversing with me)

 

But I digress. I'm talking about not the guys who just evaluate and offer opinions, but ones who talk to NFL people. The ESPN guys. I have heard a lot from Albert Beer as he's local to me. 

 

Those people have mentioned teams liking McCarthy. So that's where I think it could surprise people how highly he might go. 

[Anselmheifer]

Where are we going to rank when we win tomorrow?

 

Also, if we drop out of range for Jayden Daniels, we may still move back up for him. I’d be very surprised if we don’t take a swing at QB with a new regime. 

[Stone Cold]

I think shadeur sanders can be top tier but you have to be ready for the circus that comes with that.  I really like McCarthy but he kinda reminds me of Howell so why do it lol.  

[Rufus T Firefly]

13 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

Where are we going to rank when we win tomorrow?

 

Also, if we drop out of range for Jayden Daniels, we may still move back up for him. I’d be very surprised if we don’t take a swing at QB with a new regime. 

As the tiebreaker stands at the moment, we'd be 7th. But the tiebreaker could move us either way, and the Bears beating Arizona would move us up a spot. 

[markmills67]

10 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

As the tiebreaker stands at the moment, we'd be 7th. But the tiebreaker could move us either way, and the Bears beating Arizona would move us up a spot. 

We'll be 7th then because Ron the ****** will win today and **** us up for a top 4 pick. 

[RWJ]

We lose today, I think we pick no higher than #4 

[Skinsinparadise]

16 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Again, my point is there is potential in that class and McCarthy either thinks he can convince teams that he is worth a high pick or he doesn't. Yeah, he's probably in the discussion for 3/4 right now, and maybe he'd be in the discussion for 1/2 next year. But if you're going to go in the top half of the round I don't think that is worth waiting for. 

 

I'm differentiating between the general mock draft types and the ones with connections. There are a thousand guys who do mock drafts and a some of them are good, some of them aren't. I'm not one of these guys who thinks only people who work for NFL teams can know anything about evaluating players. It's football, not quantum physics. I enjoy getting those opinions. Even our guys int he draft thread bring a lot of good knowledge. I mean, not you, but the smart people over there*.

 

(*- this is the second time in as many days I've insulted you. I'm sure it's completely unwarranted, but I guess that's what you get for conversing with me)

 

But I digress. I'm talking about not the guys who just evaluate and offer opinions, but ones who talk to NFL people. The ESPN guys. I have heard a lot from Albert Beer as he's local to me. 

 

Those people have mentioned teams liking McCarthy. So that's where I think it could surprise people how highly he might go. 

 

I feel honored to be insulted twice .   

 

I posted earlier this week on two different threads including the draft thread much of the long article from Matt Miller citing what he is hearing from NFL teams about the QBs, where he cited teams are higher on McCarthy.  So of course i don't disagree with the point.  I used to subscribe to Miller's draft site, I didn't renew this year.  But yeah he's pretty plugged in, I trust him.

 

I don't recall if I posted the McCarthy part of it but in case I didn't it was this

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/draft2024/insider/story/_/id/39136559/2024-nfl-draft-quarterback-class-williams-maye-daniels-mccarthy

 

"You know who's going to go higher than anyone thinks?" asked an AFC East scout last week via text. "J.J. McCarthy."

The Michigan quarterback is loved by scouts who have studied his game and have seen the junior passer throw in person. McCarthy is efficient; he has posted a QBR of 89.2, good for third in the nation, while throwing 19 touchdown passes to four interceptions.

"I think a lot of people haven't done a deep dive on McCarthy yet," said a scout who covers the Michigan area, "but when they do, he's going to rise. He would dominate an event like the Senior Bowl."

The main knock on McCarthy's game this year has more to do with the Wolverines than his skill set. Michigan's scheme doesn't ask for a lot of pure passing from him. The Wolverines run the ball early and often, with McCarthy attempting only 287 passes this season (77th in the FBS) and averaging 19.3 per game against their three ranked opponents toward the end of the season. He didn't attempt a single pass in the second half of a 24-15 win over Penn State in mid-November!

And because Michigan throws only 44.5% of the time (124th out of 133 teams), McCarthy hasn't been able to showcase his passing ability to a high level. That has led to questions the junior simply can't answer on tape. He must rely on the pre-draft process, should he declare for the draft. As of now, McCarthy sits at No. 19 overall on my board, but he could absolutely rise as we get closer to draft time.

 

As for whether he jumps into this draft.  Will see.  I think he has a shot at #2 or #1 next draft if he keeps climbing.  Granted i am biased because i am not big on Ewers or Beck. 

 

https://www.marca.com/en/nfl/2023/06/01/6478f3ec46163fff678b456d.html

 

Let's take a look at the estimated total value of rookie contracts for each first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, based on Spotrac's data:

• No. 1: $41.2 million
• No. 2: $39.4 million
• No. 3: $38.2 million
• No. 4: $36.9 million
• No. 5: $34.5 million
• No. 6: $30.4 million
• No. 7: $27.02 million
• No. 8: $23.7 million
• No. 9: $23.5 million
• No. 10: $22.6 million
• No. 11: $21.2 million
• No. 12: $19.2 million
• No. 13: $18.7 million
• No. 14: $17.8 million
• No. 15: $17.5 million

Edited December 24, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[HigSkin]

I wonder if McCarthy and Harbaugh are tied together in anyway like if Harbaugh jumps to the NFL then McCarthy declares?

 

You'd also wonder if Harbaugh would select a team with questions at QB and HC vacancies (Raiders, Bears, Commanders) so that he could select McCarthy.

 

https://www.si.com/college/michigan/football/michigan-football-jim-harbaugh-compares-jj-mccarthy-to-andrew-luck-stanford

 

"I hate to compare, right," Harbaugh questions. "Because he's very much like Andrew Luck, a quarterback that's once in a generation. I knew it first with Andrew Luck the way he took the field for his first practice as a true freshman. The way he walks on. You see it with other players. Just the presence that they have when they walk onto the field and the first time getting into the quarterback position, the presence that they have you go, ah-ha, there it is. J.J. first day he walked onto the practice field here at Michigan, that is what came to mind. This is very Andrew Luck-like. The presence and the demeanor. The everything. Well-documented, I think J.J. is a once-in-a-generation quarterback here at Michigan or anywhere."

 

"J.J. is phenomenal," said Harbaugh. "So on fire. So on point in the throws he is making from the pocket, doing severe damage when he does leave the pocket. Keeps his eyes downfield. Getting big chunk plays and yardage....The kind of throws he's making, too, they're NFL-caliber throws. Into tight windows. The accuracy is off the charts. He's putting balls six inches in front of the number, even the throws that are covering 30-40 yards, they're right on the number."

 

 

Edited December 24, 2023 by HigSkin