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2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2


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9 hours ago, Forehead said:

Zach Wilson went out with a concussion.  Are we bad enough to make *checks notes* Trevor Siemian look good?

 

Yeah the Jets game worries me even more after yesterday.  The defense looked better against the Rams, we still can't stop the deep pass but can the Jets get the ball down the field? 

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8 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

I think Gibbs is special, and agree that in general, how they handled round 1 was utterly bizarre, they seemed to perfectly handle TE allocation of resources (trading away the right to sign Hockenson for great expense, and then drafting a better player at a much cheaper cost to replace him in round 2), but then to use round 1 picks on LB's and RB's was utterly inexplicable. It's an example of where you can do things wrong and benefit anyway, in the short term. Gibbs was one of 2 super dynamic locked in explosive backs. They moved on from Swift (who was that, but couldn't stay healthy), and brought him in to replace that passing game chops/dynamism in the open field angle. It was a ridiculous overdraft and use of draft capital (consider if they'd gotten Achane instead at a huge draft capital discount?), but there's no denying how huge an asset he is to the offense over the next 5 years, and really, do they have a longer time horizon? The coach and the GM? no. The fans do, but they don't. The LB, I can't get with that, seemed like a need move, but the home run was landing the #1 TE in football with 2nd round draft capital cap hit from '23-'26. WOW is that amazing.

 

Now if they could just turn around Jameson Williams, my god could that offense be explosive. But the defense is an abject disaster, so they aren't winning anything for now. It will be an interesting build, to try and figure out how to address that issue. 

 I didn't have a problem with the Campbell pick, he looks to be a good player. And so is Gibbs obviously.  But one look around the league shows that you can find good running backs later in the draft and it was hard for me to justify taking just about any running back in the first round.  Said the same thing when the Steelers took Harris.

Edited by Darrell Green Fan
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I feel like the Rams played the type of game, where we could have stolen a win if we played one of our better games.  Unfortunately (or fortunately if you think of it from a draft positioning angle) we did not play a particularly game.  Defense gave up an easy TD on a coverage bust, gave up a fg on a botched snap on a punt and gave one point on botched extra point snap, if you were ranking Howell's game 1-14 for the 14 games he played this year, yesterday probably ranks 9th or 10th.   Turnovers were not an issue but he simply missed (by not seeing them) more open receivers yesterday than typical.  80%+ of the time if you win the turnover battle by two you will win the game.  I felt the Rams were beatable, they are the definition of a middle of the pack team.  Better than us, but beatable especially if the turnover battle goes our way.   Not an impressive effort from our guys this year.   In terms of draft position, that is a good thing though.

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14 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 I didn't have a problem with the Campbell pick, he looks to be a good player. And so is Gibbs obviously.  But one look around the league shows that you can find good running backs later in the draft and it was hard for me to justify taking just about any running back in the first round.  Said the same thing when the Steelers took Harris.

 

Campbell has been up and down.  The modern NFL offenses really put a lot of stress on LB'ers and you should expect a learning curve.  Is Campbell a good player--no, not really.  Is he as good as Jamin Davis in year 3.  Probably not, I give Jamin Davis a slight edge, but he is better than Davis was in year 1 and probably close to Davis in year 2.   Its tough to take a LB in round 1 just because the learning curve for that position is steeper than some others, so it may take an extra year to develop that player.  Where a WR is in year 2 is where a LB will be in year 3 for example, so you waste a year of their rookie contract.

 

In terms of whether the Lions should have taken Jalen Carter at pick 6 or whether they did well to trade down from 6 to 12 to take Gibbs and use the extra pick they got to take Sam LaPorta, it comes down to Carter vs. Gibbs and LaPorta.   I think LaPorta arguably has the most impressive season.  Jalen Carter came out on fire with 24 pressures in the first 6 games, but in the last 9 games he only has 15 pressures and looks more like a mid level starter.  I think ultimately Carter will be a pro bowl stud and if I just had to pick one of the 3 players, due to positional value, he is the guy I would take.  That said its a close call between Carter vs. LaPorta and Gibbs and that is not even really factoring the off field issue with Carter and the car accident.

Edited by philibusters
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23 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

Campbell has been up and down.  The modern NFL offenses really put a lot of stress on LB'ers and you should expect a learning curve.  Is Campbell a good player--no, not really.  Is he as good as Jamin Davis in year 3.  Probably not, I give Jamin Davis a slight edge, but he is better than Davis was in year 1 and probably close to Davis in year 2.   Its tough to take a LB in round 1 just because the learning curve for that position is steeper than some others, so it may take an extra year to develop that player.  Where a WR is in year 2 is where a LB will be in year 3 for example, so you waste a year of their rookie contract.

 

In terms of whether the Lions should have taken Jalen Carter at pick 6 or whether they did well to trade down from 6 to 12 to take Gibbs and use the extra pick they got to take Sam LaPorta, it comes down to Carter vs. Gibbs and LaPorta.   I think LaPorta arguably has the most impressive season.  Jalen Carter came out on fire with 24 pressures in the first 6 games, but in the last 9 games he only has 15 pressures and looks more like a mid level starter.  I think ultimately Carter will be a pro bowl stud and if I just had to pick one of the 3 players, due to positional value, he is the guy I would take.  That said its a close call between Carter vs. LaPorta and Gibbs and that is not even really factoring the off field issue with Carter and the car accident.


Logan Paulsen had a point when doing the retro on Jamin’s season that a complete off ball LB stud is worth his weight in gold and worth the high pick. However, if a guy is not that, there is a major gap in value between the stud and the good player. My theory for why off ball LB has been devalued is because there are so few who can defend the run, cover tight ends and backs and rush the passer. If you can’t do at least the first two, you are going to be a liability on the field outside of obvious run or pass situations.

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Just now, method man said:


Logan Paulsen had a point when doing the retro on Jamin’s season that a complete off ball LB stud is worth his weight in gold and worth the high pick. However, if a guy is not that, there is a major gap in value between the stud and the good player. My theory for why off ball LB has been devalued is because there are so few who can defend the run, cover tight ends and backs and rush the passer. If you can’t do at least the first two, you are going to be a liability on the field outside of obvious run or pass situations.

That's why I've though recently that I'd like to go after the best linebackers in free agency, the position is devalued so even if we have to pay a little extra it won't kill the cap space. We haven had great linebacker play since London fletcher. I like Jamin, but I'd love to have a stud quarterbacks our defense 

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8 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

That's why I've though recently that I'd like to go after the best linebackers in free agency, the position is devalued so even if we have to pay a little extra it won't kill the cap space. We haven had great linebacker play since London fletcher. I like Jamin, but I'd love to have a stud quarterbacks our defense 

 

Yeah, I don't know what the analytics say but I could see a strategy of signing solid LB'ers in free agency (TJ Edwards--good but not top of the market money) and drafting LB'ers late in the 5th or 6th every two out of three years or something like that being a good strategy.   I think we probably made a mistake letting Cole Holecomb go.  He signed a 3 year 18 million dollar deal but only 5 million of it was guaranteed (on the 5 million dollar signing bonus was guaranteed--though the odds they would have cut him before this season, which he had a 2.7 million dollar salary for were low).

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9 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 

After nearly 30 years of arguing with delusional short term fan thinking, I think Smoot is right. Most fans are brain dead chuckleheads that never think about how consequential wins are, in a negative sense, in lost seasons. Even today, where fans are more aware than ever before of the value of the draft, most are short term thinkers. Antique fan things like message boards are not reflective of the generalized fan base. I'd like to think fans are sharper, but I think most overrate chemistry, culture and momentum from winning and underrate how critical game changing talent on the field talent is. 

 

Or, alternatively, you could look inward and see that you too, are an irrational being.

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1 hour ago, philibusters said:

 

Yeah, I don't know what the analytics say but I could see a strategy of signing solid LB'ers in free agency (TJ Edwards--good but not top of the market money) and drafting LB'ers late in the 5th or 6th every two out of three years or something like that being a good strategy.   I think we probably made a mistake letting Cole Holecomb go.  He signed a 3 year 18 million dollar deal but only 5 million of it was guaranteed (on the 5 million dollar signing bonus was guaranteed--though the odds they would have cut him before this season, which he had a 2.7 million dollar salary for were low).


I’m with this. Luvu and Al Shaair are two good legit starting caliber green dot LBs who would fit well next to Jamin. I would argue Luvu is Pro Bowl caliber. I also think we should take at least one off ball LB Day 3. I would also consider bringing Barton back as a 3rd LB. He’s been better in recent weeks and would be a nice first LB to bring off the bench

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Hey, guess what ... we DO have a path to the #1 overall pick.

 

Panthers: Packers, @Jaguars, Buccaneers

Patriots: @Broncos, @Bills, Jets

Cardinals: @Bears, @Eagles, Seahawks

Commanders: @Jets, 49ers, Cowboys

 

Panthers need to win 2

Patriots need to win 1

Cardinals need to win 1

Commanders need to lose out

 

It's still an uphill battle to get the SOS advantage over the Panthers and Patriots, but it's not impossible.

 

If there was ever a time for Bryce Young to start playing up to the #1 pick status, this would be the time. Panthers defense is playing well, so they could have a chance in those games. Tough to see them win 2, but you never know.

 

Edited by JamesMadisonSkins
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1 hour ago, method man said:

ALERT!

 

Ron currently has a 102-100 coaching record. He is going to try like hell to win at least one more game so that he doesn’t finish his career with a losing record. I am worried about the Cowboys game

Didnt think this would be my first post but I LOLd to this. I can totally see him pulling out all the stops and putting in Brissett at half time to go for the win.

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