2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[Rocky21]

16 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Ran the simulator again based on current Vegas odds for each game (at least what I could find on the Miami Herald website, idk)

1. Panthers (Bears): 1-16

2. Cardinals: 3-14

3. Patriots: 4-13 (.519)

4. Commanders: 4-13 (.523)

5. Giants: 5-12 (.519)

6. Titans: 5-12 (.533)

7. Chargers: 5-12 (.543)

8. Bears: 6-11 (.474)

9. Raiders: 6-11 (.505)

10. Jets: 6-11 (.519)

The Jets are gonna win two more games?!

16 hours ago, HigSkin said:

This weekends game routing guide -

 

Bears beat Lions

Jets beat Texans

Giants beat Packers

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/10100276-commanders-rooting-guide-for-2024-nfl-draft-implications-of-week-14

Yes.

 

And the Bucs beat the Falcons

the Chargers beat the Broncos

and the Raiders beat the Vikings

[Voice_of_Reason]

14 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Wouldn’t dwell on it. We’re going to somehow win two games. We all know it.

Ask me at the end of the this weekend.  IF Dallas beats Philly, I think the last game of the season might mean something for both teams.  Both would be 10-3 with 4 to play.

 

If Dallas has something to play for, they're going to boat race us from here back to Texas while munching on week old fruitcake and pecan pie.  

 

If the Eagles beat Dallas this weekend, then they have lost the division, and hell, if i was them, I might just concede the game and not even bother making the trip.  

[MrJL]

2 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Ask me at the end of the this weekend.  IF Dallas beats Philly, I think the last game of the season might mean something for both teams.  Both would be 10-3 with 4 to play.

 

If Dallas has something to play for, they're going to boat race us from here back to Texas while munching on week old fruitcake and pecan pie.  

 

If the Eagles beat Dallas this weekend, then they have lost the division, and hell, if i was them, I might just concede the game and not even bother making the trip.  

the last game of the season isn't going to save Ron's job  Harris could just tell him to sit our better players

I was looking at some new mock drafts and saw ones where either Williams or Maye drop all the way to 6 and the one with Williams at 6 had him as 3rd QB taken, with the Commanders taking Daniels at 4 over him

1 hour ago, Rocky21 said:

The Jets are gonna win two more games?!

they play us and the Pats so it's theoretically possible

[Voice_of_Reason]

9 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

I think all who believes this are dreaming.  Maybe a desperate team in training camp loses their starter to injury and is willing to burn a second round pick.  In a normal non desperation situation; you aren’t getting anything greater than a 3rd.

 

Sam would only be traded if we have drafted a qb in the first or second round; with the intention of him being the starter.

It really depends on how he finishes the season.  If he plays like he did in that 3 game stretch where he was putting up 300 yards per game and a TD or two, then teams will view him as a 12-18 starter on a 5th round contract and he would be a hot commodity on the trade market.

 

If they continue the way they have the last 2 games, then that won't happen. 

 

What the offense needs is to just commit to what they were doing during the 3 or 4 games when the offense was moving the ball better.  The last couple games have been very run-heavy.  I feel like Ron has put his thumb on the scale.  They aren't going to be successful in that type of offense with this collection of players.  

 

I'm hoping Sam is a little healthier, and they commit more to the quick passing game and get the attempts over 40 in the next 4 games.  

 

If that happens, I think there's actually a good shot Sam enters the off-season as somebody who would be starting the beginning of 2024 for somebody, whether it's here or somewhere else. 

[Darrell Green Fan]

22 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Yeah, it's going to be fascinating.  

 

I really don't care one way or the other personally. I guess if I had a leaning, I'd prefer to figure out how to solve the other 20 problems on the team before bringing in a high first round QB and then trying to develop them while building the rest of the roster.

 

And for good reason, this fan base has become insanely impatient. We've been patient for close to 30 years, basically since 1992.  

 

But the fan base is going to turn on a young guy and pass judgement that he's not the guy after 3 games. Hell, I think it was Bosewell who wrote Chase Young was a bust after like 6-7 games of his rookie season.  (Also, the VAST majority of the media covering this team are insanely low football IQ people, and that has now seeped into the fanbase.  Idiots like Doc, BMitch, that fool Russell, Grant, Danny, the Junkies, even JP at times, somewhat Sheehan, have lowered the overall IQ of this fan base by at least 80% because of their stupidity. 

 

So, for me, I'd like to have the team built up a bit more before we bring a guy in and then he struggles as most rookies do, and the fan base immediately turns on him.  It isn't good for business.  

 

Was Boswell wrong when he called Chase a bust after 6-7 games?  I know he's not a Courtney Brown bust but he is no longer here and never gave us what we expected so I don't think Boz was so off base.  

 

But the QB position is different. Cincy has shown how you can install a great QB and even with the crappy OL they made a Super Bowl very quickly. Now I'm not suggesting the QBs who may be available are rated this highly but if you have the chance to draft a potential franchise QB you have to pull the trigger and figure out the other problems later.  A LT would be the safe pick and would lead to immediate results.  But I'm pretty convinced none of these LTs will be a value pick in the top 5.  

 

 

Edited December 9, 2023 by Darrell Green Fan

[JamesMadisonSkins]

13 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Again, if you don't have a franchise QB and you have an opportunity to take player you think is one, you do it. There is really no argument to be had there. 

 

This franchise hasn't found one of those guys since literally Sonny Jurgensen. To hkeep reading people saying basically "well, let's wait a year or two to grab one of them" is just hysterical. Or maddening, depending on your perspective. 

 

Now, whether or not you think Howell is that guy, or whether you think Williams, Maye, Daniels, or whomever is. Well, those are fine arguments to have. But as to whether you take a stud QB when presented with the chance, there is only one serious answer. 

I agree with this. Whatever the new FO chooses to do I’ll trust it. I know we would all go back and take Tua or Herbert in 2020. Although not sure the infrastructure was truly in place for them to succeed like they have elsewhere. 

[MrJL]

20 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

It really depends on how he finishes the season.  If he plays like he did in that 3 game stretch where he was putting up 300 yards per game and a TD or two, then teams will view him as a 12-18 starter on a 5th round contract and he would be a hot commodity on the trade market.

 

If they continue the way they have the last 2 games, then that won't happen. 

 

What the offense needs is to just commit to what they were doing during the 3 or 4 games when the offense was moving the ball better.  The last couple games have been very run-heavy.  I feel like Ron has put his thumb on the scale.  They aren't going to be successful in that type of offense with this collection of players.  

 

I'm hoping Sam is a little healthier, and they commit more to the quick passing game and get the attempts over 40 in the next 4 games.  

 

If that happens, I think there's actually a good shot Sam enters the off-season as somebody who would be starting the beginning of 2024 for somebody, whether it's here or somewhere else. 

 

you don't think the fact the will be trying to get rid of him would lower what teams were willing to pay?

[Warhead36]

21 minutes ago, MrJL said:

 

you don't think the fact the will be trying to get rid of him would lower what teams were willing to pay?

Maybe to some extent, but most teams will understand that a new regime with a top 5 pick is gonna wanna start fresh with their own guy.

[MrJL]

3 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Maybe to some extent, but most teams will understand that a new regime with a top 5 pick is gonna wanna start fresh with their own guy.

"Hey, we're doing you a favor, what more do you want"

 

I REALLY hope the new regime is smart enough to want to make use of what little we have.  Ben Johnson is doing great with Jared Goff for example, if he's the guy

[Darrell Green Fan]

12 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Here’s the problem with that: most of the QBs who are picked 1/2/3 fail also. Since 2012, when Luck was a hit, rheee has been one other QB picked in the top 3 who’s been worth the pick: Joe Burrow.  I guess you can put Lawrence in that category too, but he hasn’t quite made it yet.  Close though.  Otherwise you’ve had guys like Wentz. Trubisky, Baker, Trey Lance and Zach Wilson.  
 

The best QBs in the league picked recently, excluding Burrow and Lawrence:

Mahomes - 10

Allen - 6

Tua - 5 

Herbert - 6

Lamar - 32

Purdy - Mr. Irrelevant 

Hurts - second round 

Dak - 4th round. 

You don’t need a top 3 pick to get a top QB.

 

You need to get as lucky. 
 

You also need to have a really good situation to put the QB in so he doesn’t fail.  
 

Statistically, if Williams, Maye and Daniels go in the top 5, 2 will fail.  
 

The question is which 2? 
 

Last year Bryce Young went #1 and that already looks suspect.  Could turn it around, it’s way too early to pass judgement.  But it’s not starting off well.  
 

The idea you have to have to get the first or second QB on the board is fraught with issues.  So many of these guys fail. 
 

As I said, I don’t really care.  And I certainly am not going to jump up and down for Howell.  
 

But if you don’t put a guy in a good situation, you’re dooming them to fail and it’s a wasted pick. 
 

 

 

As long as they don't trade up they will lost a top 5 pick (we are assuming they are picking 5 or the QBs probably won't be there). That is brutal but not crippling as long as they retain Howell as insurance in case the pick busts.    I totally agree with the argument that most top 3 QB picks don't pan out and so many of the top QBs in the league were not all drafted there.  But it does improve your odds substantially and if you have the chance to grab a true franchise guy you have to pull the trigger IMO. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

4 hours ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

Was Boswell wrong when he called Chase a bust after 6-7 years? 

It was games.  
 

And yes.  It was stupid on steroids to pass judgement after 6-7 games.  And Chase won DROTY so it looked even dumber.  
 

Chase’s downward spiral didn’t start until year 2. Year 1, you couldn’t ask for much more.  
 

Our media is so unintelligent, it’s made a lot of fans stupid.  

[Riggo#44]

16 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

he best QBs in the league picked recently, excluding Burrow and Lawrence:

Mahomes - 10

Allen - 6

Tua - 5 

Herbert - 6

Lamar - 32

Purdy - Mr. Irrelevant 

Hurts - second round 

Dak - 4th round. 

You don’t need a top 3 pick to get a top QB.

 

You need to get as lucky. 
 

You also need to have a really good situation to put the QB in so he doesn’t fail.  

 

I think that is as important, if not moreso, than the player. Mahomes had Alex Smith, Andy Reid; Tua, after Flores, has McDaniel; Allen had Daboll and Dorsey (bad OC, good QB coach); Lamar had Baltimore; Purdy would be a back up anywhere else, but Kyle Shanahan...; Hurts, Philly just seems to do everything right, which is insanely annoying. I don't know enough about the Bengals staff, but Callahan is an HC candidate, and doing well with Burrow. Dak and Herbert are the outliers to that hypothesis.

 

Young is stuck in that **** show in Carolina. Meanwhile, Stroud is surrounded by excellent coaches in Houston. It seems, with a few names changing, the same teams fail repeatedly with QBs and are usually at the top of the draft: Bears, Jets, Giants, Us, Vegas, until they get that right organization/coaching staff like Detroit and Cincy did.

 

[Darrell Green Fan]

2 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

It was games.  
 

And yes.  It was stupid on steroids to pass judgement after 6-7 games.  And Chase won DROTY so it looked even dumber.  
 

Chase’s downward spiral didn’t start until year 2. Year 1, you couldn’t ask for much more.  
 

Our media is so unintelligent, it’s made a lot of fans stupid.  

Yes I had corrected my error. We can argue the merits of Young winning the DPOY award, IMO it was on rep alone and he didn't really have a season like other DROY (Micah Parsons) have had.  But I actually don't think Bos was that far off, maybe bust is too strong a word but it sure feels that way to me  

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

Yes I had corrected my error. We can argue the merits of Young winning the DPOY award, IMO it was on rep alone and he didn't really have a season like other DROY (Micah Parsons) have had.  But I actually don't think Bos was that far off, maybe bust is too strong a word but it sure feels that way to me  

He was an idiot for writing it when he did.  
 

It’s not debatable.  
 

It was a typical Washington Post hit piece.  
 

 

[RVAskins]

11 hours ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

But the QB position is different. Cincy has shown how you can install a great QB and even with the crappy OL they made a Super Bowl very quickly.

The problem I have with that thinking is that there's a good chance you're going to get your QB killed sooner or later. Look how often Burrow has been injured. I want to build a team for long term success, not a one and done.

Edited December 10, 2023 by RVAskins

[bearrock]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

He was an idiot for writing it when he did.  
 

It’s not debatable.  
 

It was a typical Washington Post hit piece.  
 

 

 

Except that's not what Boswell wrote.

 

Quote

Young is a good pro, a high-energy player, but, so far, not an impact star — or close to it. You don’t feel his presence. He doesn’t distort opposing offenses and is often handled, even schooled, one-on-one, by tackles who outweigh him by 60 pounds.

 

Quote

Even though Young is 6-foot-5, 264 pounds, they blunt his bull rushes, often easily, and, with their NFL-level balance and footwork, they stay engaged and redirect his speed rushes far past the quarterback.

 

Sounds pretty spot on to me.

[MrJL]

1 hour ago, RVAskins said:

The problem I have with the thinking is that there's a good chance you're going to get your QB killed sooner or later. Look how often Burrow has been injured. I want to build a team for long term success, not a one and done.

With our QB injury history that's exactly how I feel

[kingdaddy]

I'm not sold on Sam's intangibles, leadership, take control of the team skills yet. I like him, but have not seen him step up and grab this team by the balls and make it his. He has talent and is the definition of a quiet leader but is that gonna get it done for the team over the long haul? Is he the guy? Is he in a spot where he can't really be the take charge guy because of his youth and 5th round draft status? I have reservations about Sam because of these questions. Is this what he is or will he become more of a take charge leader? Is this a legit concern?

[MrJL]

20 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

I'm not sold on Sam's intangibles, leadership, take control of the team skills yet. I like him, but have not seen him step up and grab this team by the balls and make it his. He has talent and is the definition of a quiet leader but is that gonna get it done for the team over the long haul? Is he the guy? Is he in a spot where he can't really be the take charge guy because of his youth and 5th round draft status? I have reservations about Sam because of these questions. Is this what he is or will he become more of a take charge leader? Is this a legit concern?

no.

 

I have seen no evidence our skill position players don't respect him, and when he makes off schedule plays they seem to keep on the move and keep trying.  While he hasn't been able to get the OL to step up, it's possible they aren't up to the task

[method man]

37 minutes ago, MrJL said:

no.

 

I have seen no evidence our skill position players don't respect him, and when he makes off schedule plays they seem to keep on the move and keep trying.  While he hasn't been able to get the OL to step up, it's possible they aren't up to the task

We saw all we needed to regarding what the team thinks of Sam went Leno and Samuel started throwing fists after he scored the rushing TD against NY

[MrJL]

3 minutes ago, method man said:

We saw all we needed to regarding what the team thinks of Sam went Leno and Samuel started throwing fists after he scored the rushing TD against NY

excellent point.  That was awesome

[Redskins 2021]

1 hour ago, kingdaddy said:

I'm not sold on Sam's intangibles, leadership, take control of the team skills yet. I like him, but have not seen him step up and grab this team by the balls and make it his. He has talent and is the definition of a quiet leader but is that gonna get it done for the team over the long haul? Is he the guy? Is he in a spot where he can't really be the take charge guy because of his youth and 5th round draft status? I have reservations about Sam because of these questions. Is this what he is or will he become more of a take charge leader? Is this a legit concern?

 They are definitely some things to be concern about but you probably have to let him play another year to get answers to alot of these questions. It to early to say for sure one way or the other. 

The team was not competitive enough in alot of the games to get those answers. I thought he really stepped up in the Seattle game before the defense lost it.

Edited December 10, 2023 by Redskins 2021

[Gurgeh]

4 hours ago, Redskins 2021 said:

 They are definitely some things to be concern about but you probably have to let him play another year to get answers to alot of these questions. It to early to say for sure one way or the other. 

The team was not competitive enough in alot of the games to get those answers. I thought he really stepped up in the Seattle game before the defense lost it.

 

I think you need two years to judge for any QB, even when they are in a good environment. First rounders tend to get that time, and more - and if Sam had been taken in the first round, I think most people would be saying "give him another year with better support". 

 

 

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

8 hours ago, MrJL said:

no.

 

I have seen no evidence our skill position players don't respect him, and when he makes off schedule plays they seem to keep on the move and keep trying.  While he hasn't been able to get the OL to step up, it's possible they aren't up to the task

What I'm thinking about is on these off schedule plays who is he finding. I need to look it up but it's obviously not Terry and Johan very often. Heinicke would scramble then find Terry. That's one key difference between the two. 

[philibusters]

9 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

I'm not sold on Sam's intangibles, leadership, take control of the team skills yet. I like him, but have not seen him step up and grab this team by the balls and make it his. He has talent and is the definition of a quiet leader but is that gonna get it done for the team over the long haul? Is he the guy? Is he in a spot where he can't really be the take charge guy because of his youth and 5th round draft status? I have reservations about Sam because of these questions. Is this what he is or will he become more of a take charge leader? Is this a legit concern?

 

I am the opposite.   I am confident in his ability to gain the respect of his teammate and stay cool and calm and command respect in the huddle.   

 

I am worried about his pocket presence and ability to avoid sacks.