2024 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[skinny21]

5 hours ago, Going Commando said:

Personally, I would go the opposite route.  I would draft my front seven defenders and use FA for my OLs.

 

None of the position groups in free agency are super enticing to me, because free agency is always kind of checkered/flawed as a team building tool.  Edges lose so much more of their game from aging than OLs do, plus OLs take forever to develop.  If they ever get good, it's usually not before they're like 26.  But after that, they can have surprisingly long careers with high levels of effectiveness into their 30s.  So I'd be looking to shortcut that development arc by getting multiple guys from the 2020 draft class.  My plan would be to go after Kevin Dotson, Robert Hunt, Michael Onwenu, and Lloyd Cushenberry, and hopefully bring in two of them.  I'd be willing to overpay to make sure I got them too.  Then I would try and get a high quality prospect for the pipeline to redshirt like Van Pran or Powers Johnson.

 

And I think the dynamic about aging fast is even more true for stack linebackers.  When they lose a step, or lose that super aggressive edge, it's over.  I want my linebackers young, athletic, and hungry.  I wouldn't stick my nose up at a vet though, I just think getting someone like Wilson is a better plan.  Or get the vet and get the good rookie, it should be possible with two third round picks.

 

I know we need edge talent as much as any position on the roster, I just don't feel great about the cost of the elite guys.  Hunter is getting older, and Burns and Allen are going to be monster contracts.  Rashawn Gary getting 24 million a year means they're going to get like 30 million per year.  Such a big commitment for one guy during a rebuild feels dicey, they're more of an elite mercenary you bring on to a contender to put you over the top kind of guy.  But if we're confident about building around one of them, then I can get behind it.

You make some really good points here.  I’ve been of the mind that we (generally) go by “supply” - OT and WR are seemingly deep in the draft, and looks like a pretty good group of Edge, corner and ILB in FA.  More generally, I’d tend to avoid FA for RB and TE (in our case specifically, would love to find a stud TE and they don’t hit FA… though we could use a decent guy there as well, which you can get in FA).

 

I was partially in alignment with you in that I’d look to add one good OL in FA (and 2-3 in the draft), but your points about needing time to develop is pretty salient when we’re looking at fielding a rookie qb in a new offense….

[The Consigliere]

Btw, I should add. I get that some people flat out just don't like the QB's. If you get the same vibes from Caleb, Drake, and Jayden that I got from guys like Zach Wilson, Pickett, Danny Nickels, and Trubisky that I got during their classes (I was 100% sure the former 3 would all be ridiculous busts, and while I didn't have a clue if Trubisky would bust, I was 100% sure he had no business going ahead of Watson or Mahomes, and didn't make any sense going that high) then i can get why you prefer trading down to taking a guy you are hugly confident will be no better than below average or worse. I can get that, but otherwise? I don't get the trade down idea at all, not in the least. It's flat out crazy pills to me w/only the one exception. And again, if you don't like these guys? You're gonna like the '25 class even less, a lot less and we are highly unlikely to get the litany of breaks we got this year in November and December to offset the early season wins again (just remember how the "suck for Luck" campaign basically went off the rails because Manning's neck hurt in the wrong year, and we inexplicably beat a super bowl winner like twice while sucking out loud-you simply can't plan on being so bad you'll get the #1 in any class, and next year's class isn't even good). 

[Warhead36]

Its possible that the new regime dislikes any QB option but I find that highly doubtful. This isn't like the 2022 class where it was obvious they all sucked. By all counts you got three guys who are legit in Williams, Maye, and Daniels and then a few more who could be something.

[The Consigliere]

20 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Joe appears to be the sort of “analyst” who watched 11 Caleb Williams games, spanning presumably between 400 and 500 pass attempts, and witnessed a grand total of TEN throws that he deemed to be elite. Which I think, for anyone who has watched Caleb Williams play, gives some meaningful insight into his “analysis.”

 

I would imagine he’s the same sort of analyst who “saw this coming” for Patrick Mahomes this year, because he “never really got the hype.”

One of the reasons I respect rotoviz and player profiler is because not only are they thorough as hell and have a litany of people evaluating things and bouncing ideas off of one another, but they have a wealth of history you can look at to see when they went wrong with evals and when they went right. There's a long, long CV of calls, for good and for bad. random twitter poster, JoeA., or say if I went by StephenS (my name), wtf does anyone know about my takes? Other than SIP knowing my huge blunders in '18 or '19? lol. I see quote tweets of people that are flat out totally obscure. I know who Albright is, I can look through nearly a decade of takes. Harmon's reception perception? I know his stuff going back to around '14 or '15. Could go on and on. JoeA? Who the ---- is he? No idea. Hell even the crazy takes of Fusue Vu, go back at least to '17, and for all the hate he gets, he has had some huge, major hits, nailing guys that made it, whacking guys most loved, that he didn't, who then failed. 

But joeA? Whateves. No idea who he is or why he matters. 

[The Consigliere]

20 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I never like the "what if we pick a bust QB" argument? We can pick a bust at any position. 

 

If you miss at QB...guess what? You try again in 2-3 years. 

 

You keep trying until you get it right.

Yep. People act like the RGIII trade was a horror show. Even that scenario was not awful in the slightest. One of the two classes after the '12 draft was straight up ---, and the other year our picks were much lower because we were pretty good in '12, so the cost wasn't a blue chip pick, but even if it was, who gives a ----? If we miss on Cousins and RGIII in '12, we would be doing what the Cardinals, Jets, Bears, Jags etc have been doing. Keep trying, and eventually, when you find one, and draft them? You get your Stroud like the post Watson Texans did, you get your Lawrence like the post Bortles and Gabbert Jags got, you get your Burrow like the Bengals got, you keep trying until you get it right. It took the Bills 20 years to find their replacement for Kelly but they never stopped trying, it took the dolphins 25 to find their successor to Marino, maybe, but they never stopped trying. You just keep trying until you get it right. If we had blown it which we half did with RGIII and Cousins, we would have just belly'd back up to the bar in '15, '17, '18, '19, '20, '21 etc until you find one.

 

What's wrong with that? Anything? Do you guys pine for 2013-2023? I do not. Do you guys pine for 1993-2012? I do not. I want a plan (get the QB), and I want to repeat that <expletive> plan until its solved. And when it's solved, keep drafting them on day 2 and day 3 when you find good ones. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[illone]

What if Chicago shocks the world and takes Maye #1, similar to the Browns in 2018 selecting Mayfield?

 

There are a few ways this can happen.

 

1. Chicago likes him more

2. CW doesnt declare

3. CW declares and his stock drops over the next few months

4. Unknown drama

 

Not saying any of these things are likely, but absolutely possible as there have been draft surprises every year I've followed it.

[dunfer]

44 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Yep. People act like the RGIII trade was a horror show. Even that scenario was not awful in the slightest. One of the two classes after the '12 draft was straight up ---, and the other year our picks were much lower because we were pretty good in '12, so the cost wasn't a blue chip pick, but even if it was, who gives a ----? If we miss on Cousins and RGIII in '12, we would be doing what the Cardinals, Jets, Bears, Jags etc have been doing. Keep trying, and eventually, when you find one, and draft them? You get your Stroud like the post Watson Texans did, you get your Lawrence like the post Bortles and Gabbert Jags got, you get your Burrow like the Bengals got, you keep trying until you get it right. It took the Bills 20 years to find their replacement for Kelly but they never stopped trying, it took the dolphins 25 to find their successor to Marino, maybe, but they never stopped trying. You just keep trying until you get it right. If we had blown it which we half did with RGIII and Cousins, we would have just belly'd back up to the bar in '15, '17, '18, '19, '20, '21 etc until you find one.

 

What's wrong with that? Anything? Do you guys pine for 2013-2023? I do not. Do you guys pine for 1993-2012? I do not. I want a plan (get the QB), and I want to repeat that <expletive> plan until its solved. And when it's solved, keep drafting them on day 2 and day 3 when you find good ones. 

2013-23 would’ve been a lot different without the rg3 trade. If it’s true dan and co wanted Robert and mike and kyle wanted kirk

Edited January 10 by dunfer

[kingdaddy]

FWIW.....Troy Aikman was just on ESPN (PTI) talking about how the Packers have managed their QB situation going from Favre to Rodgers to Love and said he thinks there was a lot of luck involved. He then said something interesting..."we all know it's a coin flip when you take a QB in the 1st round" and the Packers have had some luck there. I would say that GB has managed their QB situation well because all of them got a chance to sit and watch before being thrown to the wolves. I don't think this can be emphasized enough...play the rookie when you think he's ready and even spoon feed him if you need to. This kid is your future, cultivate him and keep his confidence high. 

 

[ThatNFLChick]

34 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

FWIW.....Troy Aikman was just on ESPN (PTI) talking about how the Packers have managed their QB situation going from Favre to Rodgers to Love and said he thinks there was a lot of luck involved. He then said something interesting..."we all know it's a coin flip when you take a QB in the 1st round" and the Packers have had some luck there. I would say that GB has managed their QB situation well because all of them got a chance to sit and watch before being thrown to the wolves. I don't think this can be emphasized enough...play the rookie when you think he's ready and even spoon feed him if you need to. This kid is your future, cultivate him and keep his confidence high. 

 

 

It's part luck but also Rodgers got to sit and learn from a Hall of Famer and then Love turned around and did the exact same thing by sitting and learning and watching Rodgers. When you watch Love there is a TON of Aaron Rodgers in his play just like there was lots od Favre in Rodgers - especially the early years

Edited January 10 by ThatNFLChick

[Warhead36]

44 minutes ago, illone said:

What if Chicago shocks the world and takes Maye #1, similar to the Browns in 2018 selecting Mayfield?

 

There are a few ways this can happen.

 

1. Chicago likes him more

2. CW doesnt declare

3. CW declares and his stock drops over the next few months

4. Unknown drama

 

Not saying any of these things are likely, but absolutely possible as there have been draft surprises every year I've followed it.

You sprint to the podium and take Caleb. Lets not overthink things.

11 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

It's part luck but also Rodgers got to sit and learn from a Hall of Famer and then Love turned around and did the exact same thing by sitting and learning and watching Rodgers. When you watch Love there is a TON of Aaron Rodgers in his play.

The Pack have had strong organizational infrastructure in place for over 30 years now. Its a machine thats bigger than any one guy.

[Rufus T Firefly]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

BTW, is anyone on board with that valuation of draft picks? Look at the Packers at 4th and the Giants 5th on that list. The Giants have the 6th pick, the Pack the 19th. The next three picks each have are slightly higher for NY, while the following three are a little higher for GB. And then GB has 4 extra picks late. 

 

I mean, does anyone think 4 picks starting at the end of the 5th round are worth more than picking 6 vs 19 in the 1st round? Because that's what that chart seems to imply. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I never like the "what if we pick a bust QB" argument? We can pick a bust at any position. 

 

If you miss at QB...guess what? You try again in 2-3 years. 

 

You keep trying until you get it right.

 

Not having to trade up really helps. There's always a scenario where trading back gets us future picks...but then in a year we want to trade up those teams that have the high picks don't want to trade down.

 

While we're here, we have to do it.

[Anselmheifer]

KDawg, given that you have reservations about Maye, which I do too, and have Williams as QB1, I’m curious about your take on trading up. The talk is that it would take next year’s 1st and maybe a 2nd this year and maybe a player. But, even if it only cost next year’s 1st, would you trade up for Williams?

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

6 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

KDawg, given that you have reservations about Maye, which I do too, and have Williams as QB1, I’m curious about your take on trading up. The talk is that it would take next year’s 1st and maybe a 2nd this year and maybe a player. But, even if it only cost next year’s 1st, would you trade up for Williams?

 

All of that for 1 spot? Too expensive.

[HTTRDynasty]

 

 

 

 

Starting to see a lot more Jordan Love comps for Maye now.

[dunfer]

So we draft maye. Do you let him sit behind Sam or Jacoby for a year or throw him to the wolves?

Edited January 11 by dunfer

[illone]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

You sprint to the podium and take Caleb. 

what if caleb doesnt declare?

[Rufus T Firefly]

7 minutes ago, illone said:

what if caleb doesnt declare?

Take him anyway. 

[DazedSkinsfan]

7 minutes ago, dunfer said:

So we draft maye. Do you let him sit behind Sam for a year or throw him to the wolves?

That's why since it's a 99.9% chance we're drafting a QB at #2 I hope we can one of these offensive HCs........Pair the rookie with a smart offensive coach and better talent and hopefully he grows into a franchise guy.  It's what sucks about Howell,  there were flashes but with that staff and lack of protection from the oline he finally broke.

[Anselmheifer]

41 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

All of that for 1 spot? Too expensive.

 

I think I can guess how most people here would feel. And, I know how I would feel. I'm specifically curious about KDawg. 

[dunfer]

3 minutes ago, DazedSkinsfan said:

That's why since it's a 99.9% chance we're drafting a QB at #2 I hope we can one of these offensive HCs........Pair the rookie with a smart offensive coach and better talent and hopefully he grows into a franchise guy.  It's what sucks about Howell,  there were flashes but with that staff and lack of protection from the oline he finally broke.

I’d let him sit behind Sam or jacoby if he had any issues. No point in rushing it a season to waste the chance

[KDawg]

59 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

KDawg, given that you have reservations about Maye, which I do too, and have Williams as QB1, I’m curious about your take on trading up. The talk is that it would take next year’s 1st and maybe a 2nd this year and maybe a player. But, even if it only cost next year’s 1st, would you trade up for Williams?

Not a big fan of trading up when you’re already a bad team. When you’re bad your best asset is your draft capital. 
 

By giving up a bunch of picks you are taking away from your blue chip potential moving forward and essentially relying on later round drafting (which can be a crapshoot) and FA to build a roster around a quarterback.

 

It’s easy to ruin a quarterback, too. So giving up a ton of assets just to ruin the prospect is a mistake.

 

I guess it would come down to “what does it cost?”

 

Specifically… I wouldn’t give up a 1 next year. 
 

Really, there’s not much that’s realistic I’d give up to move up to one. Especially because while I believe Caleb is the best prospect it’s entirely possible he’s the bust of the group. And trading assets to get him helps to nudge him that way.

Edited January 11 by KDawg

[clskinsfan]

25 minutes ago, illone said:

what if caleb doesnt declare?

He is going to declare. He cant increase his value any more in college. 

[PeterMP]

3 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

Yep. People act like the RGIII trade was a horror show. Even that scenario was not awful in the slightest. One of the two classes after the '12 draft was straight up ---, and the other year our picks were much lower because we were pretty good in '12, so the cost wasn't a blue chip pick, but even if it was, who gives a ----? If we miss on Cousins and RGIII in '12, we would be doing what the Cardinals, Jets, Bears, Jags etc have been doing. Keep trying, and eventually, when you find one, and draft them? You get your Stroud like the post Watson Texans did, you get your Lawrence like the post Bortles and Gabbert Jags got, you get your Burrow like the Bengals got, you keep trying until you get it right. It took the Bills 20 years to find their replacement for Kelly but they never stopped trying, it took the dolphins 25 to find their successor to Marino, maybe, but they never stopped trying. You just keep trying until you get it right. If we had blown it which we half did with RGIII and Cousins, we would have just belly'd back up to the bar in '15, '17, '18, '19, '20, '21 etc until you find one.

 

What's wrong with that? Anything? Do you guys pine for 2013-2023? I do not. Do you guys pine for 1993-2012? I do not. I want a plan (get the QB), and I want to repeat that <expletive> plan until its solved. And when it's solved, keep drafting them on day 2 and day 3 when you find good ones. 

 

But getting the QB doesn't necessarily require taking one at the top of the draft.  The RGIII trade was a horror show because you put a lot of assets into one player, and when you do that an injury to said player is magnified.

 

Imagine what we could have done for the team if we hadn't taken RGIII, took Cousins, and put the picks we put into RGIII into other players to bring up the total quality of the roster.

 

I don't mind if them taking QBs, but you've got to think about the quality of the QBs you are taking and what value you are putting into taking them.

3 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

Btw, I should add. I get that some people flat out just don't like the QB's. If you get the same vibes from Caleb, Drake, and Jayden that I got from guys like Zach Wilson, Pickett, Danny Nickels, and Trubisky that I got during their classes (I was 100% sure the former 3 would all be ridiculous busts, and while I didn't have a clue if Trubisky would bust, I was 100% sure he had no business going ahead of Watson or Mahomes, and didn't make any sense going that high) then i can get why you prefer trading down to taking a guy you are hugly confident will be no better than below average or worse. I can get that, but otherwise? I don't get the trade down idea at all, not in the least. It's flat out crazy pills to me w/only the one exception. And again, if you don't like these guys? You're gonna like the '25 class even less, a lot less and we are highly unlikely to get the litany of breaks we got this year in November and December to offset the early season wins again (just remember how the "suck for Luck" campaign basically went off the rails because Manning's neck hurt in the wrong year, and we inexplicably beat a super bowl winner like twice while sucking out loud-you simply can't plan on being so bad you'll get the #1 in any class, and next year's class isn't even good). 

 

Trading down makes sense if you don't love any one of them and so who you end up with doesn't matter much but you also recognize you need to draft a QB.  If you look Drake and Jayden as essentially equally likely to be good players, but you are pretty sure you can get Jayden at 5 then trading down makes sense.