2024 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[mhd24]

Just now, Going Commando said:

 

I think they're the favorites to get Fields.  People seem to really like him here in Atlanta because he was a pretty big deal as a local in High School.  I think they've been holding a candle for him ever since he transferred to Ohio State, and I think they would definitely be the most likely fanbase to welcome him with open arms and get behind a plan to build around him.  I bet they would much rather have Fields than Cousins.

 

Interesting.  I figured there might be some sour grapes since he transferred when Fromm beat him out.  I wonder if Chicago would trade Fields in conference?  Off the top of my head, these teams need QBs for next year:

 

1). Chicago

2). Washington

3). NE

4). Atlanta

5). Minnesota

6). Pittsburgh (maybe)

7). Titans (maybe, but their FO doesn't seem like they jettison Levis after picking him in the 2nd after a trade up)

8).  Raiders

9). Denver

10). Seattle (maybe)

11). Bucs (maybe)

12). NYG (maybe, depends on health of Daniel Jones).

 

The top 3 all look like locks to take Caleb, Maye, and Daniels.  Kirk probably stays in Minnesota or goes to Atlanta (there have been rumors linking this before his injury).  Pittsburgh probably stays with Pickett, but I could see them trading for Fields.  If I were Chicago, I'd trade him in the AFC if I could.  Raiders could also be a destination.  Payton doesn't want to trade away more draft capital after the Wilson trade.  Seattle already is down a 2nd rounder, so they are out.  Tampa could be a spot, but if Baker plays well against Philly, I can see a short term reunion.  NYG is cap committed to Jones for next year.

[Wayne_Millner]

I also think Chicago will take Caleb Williams. But imagine if they really didn’t need another QB and traded back one spot to Washington. Then one spot to NE. Then one spot to Arizona. Picking up 2nds and next year picks along the way from bottom dweller teams.  Could still get MHJR and be loaded with high draft picks. 

[Going Commando]

3 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

My #1 FA target would be the Carolina LB Frankie Luvu.  I also think we will target multiple edge rushers in FA (there are many of them).  

 

I think we are forced to draft at least one OL with our 2nd rounders.  The FA isn't great unless we want to gamble on Tyron Smith (ala when the Rams signed Whitworth late in his career).

Personally, I would go the opposite route.  I would draft my front seven defenders and use FA for my OLs.

 

None of the position groups in free agency are super enticing to me, because free agency is always kind of checkered/flawed as a team building tool.  Edges lose so much more of their game from aging than OLs do, plus OLs take forever to develop.  If they ever get good, it's usually not before they're like 26.  But after that, they can have surprisingly long careers with high levels of effectiveness into their 30s.  So I'd be looking to shortcut that development arc by getting multiple guys from the 2020 draft class.  My plan would be to go after Kevin Dotson, Robert Hunt, Michael Onwenu, and Lloyd Cushenberry, and hopefully bring in two of them.  I'd be willing to overpay to make sure I got them too.  Then I would try and get a high quality prospect for the pipeline to redshirt like Van Pran or Powers Johnson.

 

And I think the dynamic about aging fast is even more true for stack linebackers.  When they lose a step, or lose that super aggressive edge, it's over.  I want my linebackers young, athletic, and hungry.  I wouldn't stick my nose up at a vet though, I just think getting someone like Wilson is a better plan.  Or get the vet and get the good rookie, it should be possible with two third round picks.

 

I know we need edge talent as much as any position on the roster, I just don't feel great about the cost of the elite guys.  Hunter is getting older, and Burns and Allen are going to be monster contracts.  Rashawn Gary getting 24 million a year means they're going to get like 30 million per year.  Such a big commitment for one guy during a rebuild feels dicey, they're more of a elite mercenary you bring on to a contender to put you over the top kind of guy.  But if we're confident about building around one of them, then I can get behind it.

[LD0506]

Now I know I'm a naif here, but here's my take. Taking another young QB and throwing him into the fire without a team around him just guarantees we're right back here doing this again next year, and the year after. I'd deal that #2 hard, don't drop much, take some premier OL talent, keep adding more in the later rounds. Howell would have accomplished more with some protection, and if he's not the guy, the next one is going to need that too. OL and LB, quality picks, not just the "well we're hoping..." ones we've seen lately. Upgrade the whole organization, not just coaches, demo and rebuild, don't just keep patching the patched patches and throwing draft capital in a wishing well. I can take a couple years fixing this mess, it didn't happen overnight, but we gotta build it from the ground up.

[mhd24]

25 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

Personally, I would go the opposite route.  I would draft my front seven defenders and use FA for my OLs.

 

None of the position groups in free agency are super enticing to me, because free agency is always kind of checkered/flawed as a team building tool.  Edges lose so much more of their game from aging than OLs do, plus OLs take forever to develop.  If they ever get good, it's usually not before they're like 26.  But after that, they can have surprisingly long careers with high levels of effectiveness into their 30s.  So I'd be looking to shortcut that development arc by getting multiple guys from the 2020 draft class.  My plan would be to go after Kevin Dotson, Robert Hunt, Michael Onwenu, and Lloyd Cushenberry, and hopefully bring in two of them.  I'd be willing to overpay to make sure I got them too.  Then I would try and get a high quality prospect for the pipeline to redshirt like Van Pran or Powers Johnson.

 

And I think the dynamic about aging fast is even more true for stack linebackers.  When they lose a step, or lose that super aggressive edge, it's over.  I want my linebackers young, athletic, and hungry.  I wouldn't stick my nose up at a vet though, I just think getting someone like Wilson is a better plan.  Or get the vet and get the good rookie, it should be possible with two third round picks.

 

I know we need edge talent as much as any position on the roster, I just don't feel great about the cost of the elite guys.  Hunter is getting older, and Burns and Allen are going to be monster contracts.  Rashawn Gary getting 24 million a year means they're going to get like 30 million per year.  Such a big commitment for one guy during a rebuild feels dicey, they're more of a elite mercenary you bring on to a contender to put you over the top kind of guy.  But if we're confident about building around one of them, then I can get behind it.

 

Oh, I agree with not spending big money on aging edge rushers.  I was thinking more along the lines of someone like Bryce Huff as a pass rusher (only 25).  No way am I going after Burns ( who I think will be franchised anyways).

 

I think NE (with a ton of cap space) ends up franchising Onwenu if they can't extend him.  They are going to draft a QB at 3 and need to protect him just as we do.  Their fans are saying their OL sucked this year.  Brown is likely done there.  They need Onwenu and won't let him go.  

 

Tyron Smith might be worth the gamble for a couple of years.  I wonder if he could slide into RT?  Dallas doesn't have a lot of money and they have a ready made replacement in Tyler Smith who can slide to LT.  It would be our version of the Andrew Whitworth signing.

 

I'm with you on Cushionberry, but I think Peyton keeps him considering he always has prioritized the OL.  Denver doesn't have a 2nd rounder, and they need a QB too.  I think they'll spend to keep him.  

 

Hunt will be available considering the Dolphins don't have much cap space and need to extend Tua.

 

I like Wilson, and would take him with our early 3rd.  However, I figure he'll be gone after teams become enamored by his tape.  He's a late 1st early 2nd type on talent and production.  The only hesitancy is the injury history (two ACLs).  That will cause him to slip.

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I never bothered studying that class.   From what i recall I bought the narrative about Mayfield.   But I recall Chris Cooley who did kept saying Josh Allen was the best.

 

I ironically studied Rosen and Darnold including their college games when they were about to hit the trade market -- and disliked both and disliked them intensely as gets here.

 

I think the Josh Allen argument was a 1000% tape/tools argument. The guy physically was a monster, nobody doubted the arm, the physical talent, the athleticism, I assume he had a good processing brain too. But the accuracy issues were absurd. He played for freaking Wyoming and was Jay Schroeder/Marc Malone like in terms of accuracy. Dude was 56% in his final two seasons in the Mountain West while guys in tougher conferences like Baker were hitting the seventies. Part of accuracy is system, and where your throwing of course, but he was known to be wildly inaccurate and how and why that would ever get easier as the competition got 10x harder was flat out impossible for me to believe. Why would someone get significantly more accurate as the competition got harder? Far harder? 

 

I couldn't get my head around that, so I totally ignored the guy, like I'm ignoring Penix (due to injuries and age). I don't regret it. If you miss based on a process flaw (like my hate for McLaurin-at least there was a loophole for McLaurin in that he was athletic as hell, smart as hell, a hard worker, and playing for a team just loaded to the gills with offensive talent (were talking an absolute litany of top 10 in the league WR's, and top WR prospects from the time he arrived till he left for the draft) which could explain his lack of production markers, but Allen, productive as he was, just failed at the most basic of things, throwing catchable balls. 

 

I gave too much creedence to Darnold's youth and second to last year, and I just liked Rosen. One thing I've found out over the years, which isn't terribly helpful (and hell, McShay (and honestly I don't really care about McShay or Kiper types, for good or ill) had the same issue) is that I'm highly accurate at predicting bust QB's from 1st round prospects, but as erratic as everyone else at predicting who will hit, not good, great, maybe average, or below average at best at nailing the successes. I'm just pretty good at sniffing out busts, I think Josh Allen is the first guy i can remember in decades, where I was 100% convinced he'd suck, and he was the absolute opposite. A gazillion examples of guys I thought would be good that weren't, but sucked and were good? That's pretty rare. Sniffing out Zach Wilson's isn't that hard, generally speaking. I hope the guys who dislike Maye aren't like I am that way. Yikes. 

 

I freely admit to having no idea about Maye at all. But in fairness, at this point, I just pay attention to other QB evaluators more talented at doing it, especially the analytics side, and try to sniff out the best evidence based arguments, but even then its pretty pin the tail on the donkey other than the ones that were so obvious, it was damn near guaranteed (Andrew Luck was always going to be Andrew Luck). 

[Skinsinparadise]

23 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

I think the Josh Allen argument was a 1000% tape/tools argument. The guy physically was a monster, nobody doubted the arm, the physical talent, the athleticism, I assume he had a good processing brain too. But the accuracy issues were absurd. He played for freaking Wyoming and was Jay Schroeder/Marc Malone like in terms of accuracy. Dude was 56% in his final two seasons in the Mountain West while guys in tougher conferences like Baker were hitting the seventies. Part of accuracy is system, and where your throwing of course, but he was known to be wildly inaccurate and how and why that would ever get easier as the competition got 10x harder was flat out impossible for me to believe. Why would someone get significantly more accurate as the competition got harder? Far harder? 

 

I couldn't get my head around that, so I totally ignored the guy, like I'm ignoring Penix (due to injuries and age). I don't regret it. If you miss based on a process flaw (like my hate for McLaurin-at least there was a loophole for McLaurin in that he was athletic as hell, smart as hell, a hard worker, and playing for a team just loaded to the gills with offensive talent (were talking an absolute litany of top 10 in the league WR's, and top WR prospects from the time he arrived till he left for the draft) which could explain his lack of production markers, but Allen, productive as he was, just failed at the most basic of things, throwing catchable balls. 

 

I gave too much creedence to Darnold's youth and second to last year, and I just liked Rosen. One thing I've found out over the years, which isn't terribly helpful (and hell, McShay (and honestly I don't really care about McShay or Kiper types, for good or ill) had the same issue) is that I'm highly accurate at predicting bust QB's from 1st round prospects, but as erratic as everyone else at predicting who will hit, not good, great, maybe average, or below average at best at nailing the successes. I'm just pretty good at sniffing out busts, I think Josh Allen is the first guy i can remember in decades, where I was 100% convinced he'd suck, and he was the absolute opposite. A gazillion examples of guys I thought would be good that weren't, but sucked and were good? That's pretty rare. Sniffing out Zach Wilson's isn't that hard, generally speaking. I hope the guys who dislike Maye aren't like I am that way. Yikes. 

 

I freely admit to having no idea about Maye at all. But in fairness, at this point, I just pay attention to other QB evaluators more talented at doing it, especially the analytics side, and try to sniff out the best evidence based arguments, but even then its pretty pin the tail on the donkey other than the ones that were so obvious, it was damn near guaranteed (Andrew Luck was always going to be Andrew Luck). 

 

I never dove into those guys at the time.  I recall Cooley loving Allen's tools.  Back then I was more of a narrative guy then someone who watched those QBs.

 

Years later I watched a lot more.  And specifically to Rosen and Darnold, I watched them both a ton when they were on the trade market.  And my take on both of them as to their college tape was they were both atrocious decision makers.  In college they were lucky that they didn't have more picks.   But the kicker for me is I watched some of their pro games.  And it was EXACTLY the same to my eyes.  I saw no progress.  So that's why on the QB thread years ago I trashed them both.  But in real time during that draft I had no idea, I just ran with the narratives.

 

Rosen's temptation purely as to tools was his footwork was so pretty.  He played tennis and it showed.    With Darnold for a big dude he could really run and was decent throwing off of boots.  But for both of them their accuracy was sketchy in some games and I questioned their vision.

 

I was also running with the Haskins narrative without watching him closely but @volsmet back then kept poking me to watch him closer.  And he helped prompt me how to do it.    That is, look at the full gamut of the passer.  Pressure versus no pressure.  1st level, 2nd, 3rd, in routes, out routes.  Put your mind on each category.  i did and then I was out on Haskins. 

 

I am watching Drake Maye with that same perspective.  And while he has some of that Rosen-Darnold decision making issues but its nowhere near as flagrant.  With Maye it just happens once in awhile versus the frequency that it happened with Rosen-Darnold.  But the key for me with Maye is he does it all -- he can layer his throws well, he's not just majoring in one thing or two, he's hitting WRs on all levels.  Out routes, in routes.  Deals with pressure.   There is every tool IMO in his tool belt.  He's far from perfect but to my eyes he's a well rounded talent.

Edited January 10 by Skinsinparadise

[ThatNFLChick]

 

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

He's a fun watch, and I like him better than Cooper and Trotter, both of whom I also like.  Wilson pretty much as it all.  Size, speed, and elite instincts.  Truth be told, he's definitely a top 50 player in this class, but someone else in the thread said he had injury issues that will drop him to the middle rounds.

 

I don't know what his injury issues are, so I would pick him with our second round 2 pick TBH.  

They're pretty bad. He tore his ACL in his right knee twice. He missed the end of one season because he dislocated both shoulders and then missed his junior year after hurting a shoulder and needing major surgery on it. 

[clskinsfan]

Getsy out in Chicago. Dont think that bodes well for Fields staying there. They are going to go QB at 1.

[ThatNFLChick]

 

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Here’s some of his “inaccurate deep balls” evidence - some good mixed in with the bad.  Again, not saying I agree. 
 

 

Who is JoeA_NFL? Should I care what he thinks? Lots of people tweet. I'm particularly fond of playerprofiler, rotoviz, and to a lesser extent pff. I have no idea who JoeA is? A lot of people are on twitter. I don't think my opinion should move the needle for anyone other than if I offer quality arguments, not sure why Joe's should either? 

[ThatNFLChick]

16 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Who is JoeA_NFL? Should I care what he thinks? Lots of people tweet. I'm particularly fond of playerprofiler, rotoviz, and to a lesser extent pff. I have no idea who JoeA is? A lot of people are on twitter. I don't think my opinion should move the needle for anyone other than if I offer quality arguments, not sure why Joe's should either? 

 

He's a guy who said he would "stake his analytical career" on his conclusion that Howell was a top 5 QB this season so...yeah, there you go lol. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

[The Consigliere]

Kinda surprised and so so so ecstatic. I never thought in a million years literally every interlocking loss and win we needed in November and December would happen, and let literally exactly just enough of them, I think by like, 1 or 2, did so. Extraordinary good fortune. One would think it would be in the stars, if this pick hits anyway, otherwise, lol, just more of the same. I'm not 100% convinced we've locked in a franchise QB, but it's the first time since 2020 I thought we had a chance of getting one, and only the third time since 1998 (back then I was hoping we'd draft Culpepper in the vaunted '99 class that went over like a fart in church), in '04 I was hoping for Ben Roth, or Rivers falling to us, in '05 Rodgers, in '12 I was sure we'd suck for Luck and then we inexplicably won our way out of it. But now? We actually did it. Now we just need to hit on the pick. This doesn't feel like '18, or '15 or even '21, it feels more like '99, '04, '12, and '20 to me. '99 was a mirage and '12 mostly was, but '04 and '20 weren't. Here's hoping we finally have good luck after 85 or so years of waiting. 

[TheGoodBits]

47 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

Caleb Williams falling to 2 would make me so insanely nervous. Which is guess is why Maye is in the convo for #1. 
 

[Inigo Montoya]

After QB and obviously fixing the line (which will have to have some FA signings to fix too) MLB & QB of the Defense has to be addressed. Watching highlights of Cooper, Trotter and Wilson, I would have to think one of our 2 2nd rounders picks up one of those guys. Cooper played against the best in college football, lined up all over and made sideline to sideline plays, he gets my vote. 

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[clskinsfan]

5 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

"His passing game is still a work in progress"

 

I agree with this completely. The one thing he does give you though are those incredible legs until/if/when he develops the passing.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

4 hours ago, LD0506 said:

I'd deal that #2 hard, don't drop much, take some premier OL talent, keep adding more in the later rounds. Howell would have accomplished more with some protection, and if he's not the guy, the next one is going to need that too. OL and LB, quality picks, not just the

The problem with this line of thinking is "How do we get the next one"?

 

You can't make the assumption we'll be picking in the top 3 in the coming years.

 

Basically, if you have a chance to draft a franchise QB (hopefully) you jump on that opportunity.

Edited January 10 by BRAVEONAWARPATH

[Warhead36]

6 minutes ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

The problem with this line of thinking is "How do we get the next one"?

 

You can't make the assumption we'll be picking in the top 2-3 in the coming years.

 

Basically, if you have a chance to draft a franchise QB (hopefully) you jump on that opportunity.

Exactly.

 

Yes we have holes everywhere. But if you dont have a QB then that is automatically your biggest hole. 
 

Then you factor in picking 2nd in a QB rich draft and there you have it.

[The Consigliere]

34 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

"His passing game is still a work in progress"

 

I agree with this completely. The one thing he does give you though are those incredible legs until/if/when he develops the passing.

or his legs get obliterated. 

[e16bball]

3 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

Who is JoeA_NFL? Should I care what he thinks? Lots of people tweet. I'm particularly fond of playerprofiler, rotoviz, and to a lesser extent pff. I have no idea who JoeA is? A lot of people are on twitter. I don't think my opinion should move the needle for anyone other than if I offer quality arguments, not sure why Joe's should either? 

Joe appears to be the sort of “analyst” who watched 11 Caleb Williams games, spanning presumably between 400 and 500 pass attempts, and witnessed a grand total of TEN throws that he deemed to be elite. Which I think, for anyone who has watched Caleb Williams play, gives some meaningful insight into his “analysis.”

 

I would imagine he’s the same sort of analyst who “saw this coming” for Patrick Mahomes this year, because he “never really got the hype.”

Edited January 10 by e16bball

[The Consigliere]

52 minutes ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

The problem with this line of thinking is "How do we get the next one"?

 

You can't make the assumption we'll be picking in the top 3 in the coming years.

 

Basically, if you have a chance to draft a franchise QB (hopefully) you jump on that opportunity.

No doubt. 

#1 if you fix everything but QB, you won't be drafting high enough to get the QB, and going into seasons the temptation to tap quick fix vets that establish a moderate floor of competency will kill any hope in hell of landing an elite QB barring a miracle. 

 

#2 The people arguing in favor never address the fact that this has been the policy used for about 95% of the past 30 years and has been a miserable failure.

 

#3 The people arguing in favor of this, not only do not explain how to acquire this blue chip QB after waiting, but never seem willing to address the reality that most QB classes are disappointing, horrible or middling, at best, at the top. We've had an embarrassment of riches in recent years ('17, '18, '20, '21, '23, and '24). More often QB classes go like the aughts, where 2000-2003 all sucked or were below average, and featured only two years ALL DECADE, with a 3+ quality options (2004 and 2006). The 1990's were similarly god awful, same with the 1980's. Three decades in a row, most classes were weak at the top in terms of QB. Things got a bit better last decade, you had nice classes in 2011, 2012, 2017, and 2018, and as previously mentioned, we've had a good run since covid hit with '20, '21, '23 and '24, but guess what? '25 is supposed to be weaker again, and it would not surprise at all if '25-'27 in general were largely disappointing.

 

This class, right here, right now, that we're in, is very much of a piece with '20, '21 and '23 in terms of top end prospects expected to go high. Next year isn't a horror show like 2019 and 2022, but it also isn't even as strong up top as '15 and '16 are. 

 

So why on earth are you trading down? On top of that we have 4 top 70 picks in the draft. FOUR (and six top 102 picks). We already have a lot of ammo, a lot more than usual. We do not need to trade down, and if we do, we go from having a 50/50 chance of solving QB, to more like a 5-15% chance. 

 

I get that this is a message board, but it's also not a complicated issue. A couple of threads ago I saw someone recommending going Front seven with draft picks, and free agency for OL or something like that, I half agreed with him and half didn't. I want no part of LB's with early draft capital ever, so if he disagrees with that, that's a nuanced piece of disagreement, i don't think its a great use of draft capital or cap space, but I'm open to the idea in round 2 and late round 1. That's an area where people can really debate.

 

Passing on QB? I just cannot for the life of me understand why anyone would be in favor of that, it strikes me as borderline crazy. It is SO SO SO SO much harder to compete without the QB position solved. Why someone would want the hardest path to success is totally beyond me. There have been dozens of builds the past 25 years that have succeeded with quality top end QB's, and basically 2 builds that have succeeded without them. It's not a path forward, especially when you know from the jump that you have nada built in place, and are getting a brand new front office. For people wondering, SF and Baltimore did not want to do the builds they did, the way they did. They were both forced into their builds because of bust QB's, and having top end picks, mostly in bad QB classes, so stuck with that scenario, they continued building, and tried to improvise fixes with Alex Smith, Boller, and Flacco, and Kap, Garoppolo (who only became available because the team that owned his rights had a HOF in house), Lamar and Lance and Purdy. It's not like they thought they were geniuses and didn't need a QB, between them they've spent the better part of the past 15 years trying to solve the position over and over and over and over and over again, and have habitually been trapped by slotting, and bad QB classes when they had off seasons only to finally solve it when several teams were stupid in '18, with Lamar, and when Purdy dropped like a rock in '22. Good for them, but this is not a plan, these were improvisations by strong front offices, that built everything else right, and then desperately spent two decades perpetually trying to find their own Manning, or Brady so they could compete with teams like the Colts, Patriots, Seahawks etc that kept perpetually beating them. 

 

 

Edited January 10 by The Consigliere

[Warhead36]

I never like the "what if we pick a bust QB" argument? We can pick a bust at any position. 

 

If you miss at QB...guess what? You try again in 2-3 years. 

 

You keep trying until you get it right.