2024 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[gooseneck]

13 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I don’t think he is very good. He’s slow footed and clumsy. He lacks power and his technique is inconsistent. He also lacks the anchor you want to see.

 

I think he loses absolutely any bit of value he may have had as soon as Bienemy is gone.

that is a much more solid argument.  As someone who has done "Amicus Curiae" briefs in the United States Supreme Court "Farmer v. Brennan", Death penalty cases State v. Shepard. and cases won in the Montana Supreme Court "State v. Kaufman", I do not think my view was unsound.  I agree with you; he was a huge waste of money, and I doubt he will be very good.  However, I think showing other players that a person will have a chance to compete after a down year in a bad position for him is not a bad example.   I think it shows a non-stupid loyalty; If he shows nothing but being an adequate backup up, we will cut him when it makes financial sense.  Well, I am done with this topic.  I am sorry I upset so many of you.  I never thought I would say this but. "GO PATRIOTS"

[OtisDriftwood25]

My issue with Daniels are two things. Team success and in the two games he played against FSU and Bama were not good. He interest me enough to go back and watch more but I currently see him as a stat quarterback. 

[clskinsfan]

26 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Thats funny. Because my comp for Maye is Trubisky. 

[RWJ]

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Thats funny. Because my comp for Maye is Trubisky. 

I see Maye as a taller version of Sam Howell. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

57 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Thats funny. Because my comp for Maye is Trubisky. 

 

Uh oh, Maye has some intelligence deficits? Rumor has it Trubisky is not smart enough to handle the position. Well liked, good dude, but kinda dumb.

[e16bball]

23 hours ago, Going Commando said:

I watched Alt's cut ups vs Ohio State in '22 and '23 and vs Louisville '23.

I actually think this explains a good bit, because I was really wondering why you’re so low on him. I would say ‘23 Louisville is easily his worst film, probably in his whole career. I have no idea what was going on with him in that one — he looked awful for large chunks of that game. Off-balance and frankly a little lost. The former walk-on EDGE just bulldozing him for his first sack allowed in 2 years was shocking to see — I think he actually did wake up a little after that. I honestly wonder if he had some sort of rib injury or something, because I just watched the game again, and he does look short-armed. But he typically doesn’t look that way, which was a big part of what made it so startling a performance. 

 

I don’t think he was nearly as bad in the ‘23 OSU game, particularly considering the level of competition (running two top 50 picks plus Jack Sawyer at him on a rotating basis all game). But Tuimoloau did get in his kitchen a couple times, no way around that.

 

There are a lot more ND games than just those few on YouTube, I’d be intrigued to see if you feel the same way if you see a couple more. Louisville is the worst of him, so I suspect you might see a little bit more of the appeal in some of these other games.

 

Of all the guys in this draft, I think he’s probably the easiest projection in my mind. He feels like the next in the line of tall LTs who are good-not-great athletes, have good feet and good length, and are somewhat limited in terms of lower-body explosion and pop in their hands — Taylor Decker, Taylor Lewan, Kolton Miller, etc. Guys who are more “very good” than actual “stars,” but who are no-doubt long-term starters at a premium position. I don’t love that in the top 5, but in the latter area of the top 10, that high floor starts to look awfully appealing.

Edited December 8, 2023 by e16bball

[Rufus T Firefly]

3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Problem is cutting his is basically the same as keeping him financially. You keep him as a swing guy. 

His non-guaranteed portion of his salary next year is 4.25 mil. Would you pay him that much for another year of his services? It's a valid opinion to say yes, but I would say no, without question. 

[Est.1974]

4 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Patriots trying to send shockwaves through the draft tonight. Crazy

‘Don’t worry be Zappe’ was one of the better lines I read after that game 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Est.1974

[Koolblue13]

7 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

I get this some. But we are committed financially nest year at least. Fix Tackle and he is a very good G to have. Just saying.

He's not a very good guard. He does the same **** that he does at RT. 40 good plays, 5 absolutely awful plays that cost us. That's his MO. I think he'd be better at LG that RT, but that's not a complement. 

[Skinsinparadise]

6 hours ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Uh oh, Maye has some intelligence deficits? Rumor has it Trubisky is not smart enough to handle the position. Well liked, good dude, but kinda dumb.

 

Yep, I hit him back in the old QB thread about that.    That point was referenced in multiple ways including by teammates 

8 hours ago, OtisDriftwood25 said:

My issue with Daniels are two things. Team success and in the two games he played against FSU and Bama were not good. He interest me enough to go back and watch more but I currently see him as a stat quarterback. 

 

then you must be really out on Drake Maybe and Caleb Willisms even more if these guys are about wearing their record, especially Caleb considering it was much worse and it was done in the PAC 12 versus SEC. 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Going Commando]

New England and Chicago are interesting examples of how teams with strong OLs can be awful.  Chicago's OL is second only to Philly in combined pass block and run block win rate, they're one of the best in the NFL this year.  And what's even more interesting is that New England has one of the best run defenses in the NFL too, and having a dominant run D paired with a good OL has almost always been a formula for success.  Herbstreet said they had four games where they've held opponents to under 10 points and lost three of them, when the rest of the NFL is 53-0 in that situation.  The entire source of New England's futility this year is their completely dysfunctional passing game.

 

They're actually a strong bounce back candidate for next year if they get Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels.  They would be crazy to fire Belichick and tear everything down this offseason.  And Chicago's offense could explode with Caleb Williams at QB.

[Skinsinparadise]

I've been watching Jayden for a couple of weeks on and off.

 

Looks like they have a fighting albiet still low shot at #2.  So I gather i might have to watch Drake Maye.  I've been impressed with him when watching Downs last year and Nesbit this year but that was just a couple of games each time otherwise I haven't watched much North Carolina.

 

I noticed his stats dipped from this year from the previous one.   The thing that struck me is i kept reading how he is the prototype pocket passer so I* was expecting him to be stationary but was suprised how well he moved.  But otherwise i am not really immersed in Drake. 

 

Edited December 8, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Going Commando]

5 hours ago, e16bball said:

 

Of all the guys in this draft, I think he’s probably the easiest projection in my mind. He feels like the next in the line of tall LTs who are good-not-great athletes, have good feet and good length, and are somewhat limited in terms of lower-body explosion and pop in their hands — Taylor Decker, Taylor Lewan, Kolton Miller, etc. Guys who are more “very good” than actual “stars,” but who are no-doubt long-term starters at a premium position. I don’t love that in the top 5, but in the latter area of the top 10, that high floor starts to look awfully appealing.

 

For me, seeing him look rough against the best teams he played is revelatory about his ceiling at the next level. We're actually not that far apart on what we think of him, but there is distance between us on what that means for his value.   I think there is a palpable difference in the way he plays between Taylor Decker and Taylor Lewan though.  Those guys have a nastiness and physicality to the way they played that Alt doesn't have.  I don't think he has their functional power, and that's the main difference.  And from what I remember, Lewan was an elite athlete coming out of college, before he started getting degraded by injuries in the NFL.

 

The guy I see with Alt is Mike McGlinchey.  He was a top ten pick with a high floor too, but the ceiling ended up being so low that he was a pretty serious disappointment for SF.  This is the scenario I fear with Alt, and the reason I want no part of him in the top ten.  In the 20s? Ok.  I like his run blocking work the best of the top tackles, and I think he could be a nice starting RT beside Cosmi for a right handed run game.  But I have real concerns about his pass pro against NFL caliber power, and I would value pass pro over the run game for an OT prospect.  I'd rather get Latham than Alt for that reason.  I feel much more confident in his ability to anchor against power, and that his floor is actually higher than Alt's as a result.

 

One more thing, I know this goes against the grain, but I don't think OT is a premium position any more.  I think it's just another spot on a line now.  I think the shotgun spread has killed the special value that the position used to have by making pass protection so much easier.  Receiver has pretty much replaced backs and tackles as the premium position in the offense after QB.  It doesn't feel that way for us right now because we have some pretty appealing players at WR and very few on the OL.  But I definitely would not prioritize a low ceiling high floor tackle over much higher ceiling players at receiver/tight end/edge based on position value.

[Skinsinparadise]

PFF which some use to make the claim that out O line isn't that bad, has them ranked 26th for the season.    But they do have NE highly ranked in run blocking.  Not the Bears who they rank 26th.

 

Not saying PFF is the ultimate guide.  It certainly isn't.  And I've talked about it on the QB thread but I find it ironic that the outfit that's the biggest "defenders" of this O line have them ranked as the 26th best in the league.

 

23. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (DOWN 1)

Projected Week 14 starters:

LT Trent Brown
LG Cole Strange
C David Andrews
RG Sidy Sow
RT Mike Onwenu

• While Trent Brown suited up and started for the Patriots, he played only 42 snaps. Conor McDermott was also in at left tackle for 21 snaps against the Chargers.
• Rookie guard Sidy Sow has earned a positive grade on 20.5% of run plays this season, which is the fourth-best rate among guards in the NFL.

Best player: Trent Brown

• It has been a rollercoaster season for Brown, who has put together a couple of elite outings but also some weaker games. His 85.0 PFF grade ranks third among all offensive tackles.

 

19. CHICAGO BEARS (NO CHANGE)

Projected Week 14 starters:

LT Braxton Jones
LG Teven Jenkins
C Lucas Patrick
RG Nate Davis
RT Darnell Wright

• The Chicago Bears were on a bye in Week 13.
• The Bears' offensive line ranks 25th in pass-blocking efficiency this season. The unit has allowed 144 total pressures, including 15 sacks, on 437 dropbacks.

Best player: Teven Jenkins

• Jenkins' 72.5 PFF grade this season ranks 11th among guards in the NFL.

[KDawg]

40 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I've been watching Jayden for a couple of weeks on and off.

 

Looks like they have a fighting albiet still low shot at #2.  So I gather i might have to watch Drake Maye.  I've been impressed with him when watching Downs last year and Nesbit this year but that was just a couple of games each time otherwise I haven't watched much North Carolina.

 

I noticed his stats dipped from this year from the previous one.   The thing that struck me is i kept reading how he is the prototype pocket passer so I* was expecting him to be stationary but was suprised how well he moved.  But otherwise i am not really immersed in Drake. 

 

He is in a very similar position to Howell. I mean they essentially mirror each other. Production with NFL bodies and meh OLs and a dip with non-NFL guys and a poor OL.

 

They do have a receiver who can play, but it’s a one man show.

 

Having said that, Maye also seems to disappear for real long stretches. I’m curious about the rumors about him being liked or not.

 

I will say this: I wouldn’t replace one UNC guy for his taller mirror prospect. My opinion.

 

I think the only QB I’m intrigued by that has first round buzz is Daniels.

 

Rattler for a later round potential upside but can’t get out of his own way guy. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, KDawg said:

 

 

Rattler for a later round potential upside but can’t get out of his own way guy. 

 

I am wary about players especially at that Qb who have a headcase reputation

[Going Commando]

The Patriots are dead last in team pass block win rate and fifth in team run block win rate.  They have three top ten OLs in run blocking this year: Brown, Strange, and Onwenu.  Their surprising excellence in the run game is the perfect opposite of their absolute incompetence in the passing game.

 

The Bears OL has been shockingly good in both passing and running.  They're fifth in PBWR and second in RBWR.  Braxton Jones is leading the NFL in PBWR for tackles, and Whitehair, Jenkins, and Patrick have all been good too.  They are top 20 in PBWR for IOLs and all are 94% or better.  In the run game, Larry Borom is second in RBWR for OTs.

 

Chicago's skill players on offense are the problem with their team.  They're gonna get Caleb Williams and either Malik Nabers or Brock Bowers and explode.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

The Patriots are dead last in team pass block win rate and fifth in team run block win rate.  They have three top ten OLs in run blocking this year: Brown, Strange, and Onwenu.  Their surprising excellence in the run game is the perfect opposite of their absolute incompetence in the passing game.

 

The Bears OL has been shockingly good in both passing and running.  They're fifth in PBWR and second in RBWR.  Braxton Jones is leading the NFL in PBWR for tackles, and Whitehair, Jenkins, and Patrick have all been good too.  They are top 20 in PBWR for IOLs and all are 94% or better.  In the run game, Larry Borom is second in RBWR for OTs.

 

Chicago's skill players on offense are the problem with their team.  They're gonna get Caleb Williams and either Malik Nabers or Brock Bowers and explode.

 

I haven't watched their O lines.  But like I said considering PFF is used to death on the QB thread to defend our O line albeit that hasn't aged well.

 

PFF seems to see NE similarily while the Bears not.

 

NE 9th in the run game, 27th in pass blocking

Bears 20th in pass blocking, 26th in the run game

 

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

New England and Chicago are interesting examples of how teams with strong OLs can be awful. 

 

If you are saying NE is a bad pass blocking team how is it an interesting example of how teams with strong O lines can be awful?  do you mean o lines that major in run blocking but struggle with pass blocking?  If so with that angle I agree, i agree with the point that its better to have strong pass protectors.

[Brown43]

10 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Who are yoi gonna replace him with at his cap number though? Wylie os not a great tackle. Bur he is respectable at guard.

You replace him with an UDFA backup guard to groom and you still save a few bucks off the salary cap.

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, Brown43 said:

You replace him with an UDFA backup guard to groom and you still save a few bucks off the salary cap.

 

Yup.

 

I don't understand anyone wanting to keep Wylie at this juncture. He has a 9.4M cap hit next year... his dead cap # would be around 7.8M. Worth it.

 

This isn't like we're talking about Moses or Scherff here. This is Andrew Wylie.

[philibusters]

11 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

The media doesn't do a good job of breaking this down. One would assume (hope?) these players' reps are spelling this out for them.

 

1. It's not a matter of taking NIL money or taking an NFL contract. You can get endorsement money either way. You'll almost certainly get more as a pro player. It's being talked about as if it's either/or, when in fact it's just taking likely less NIL money so you can turn down big money from he NFL on top of it. 

 

2. Whether these guys come out now, next year, or the year after, they still have to sign a 4 year rookie contract, with a 5th year option. SO, waiting just means you'll enter Free Agency a year later, thus giving up a year of top of market money in your prime. For a guy like Harrison, looking at 5 years of inflation, that is likely $30+ mil and who knows how much in guarantees. Again, he'd be giving that up for nothing, financially speaking. 

 

There may be reasons for guys to stay in school another year, but financially it is nothing but  major downside, and it's not being reported accurately. 

 

 

 

I more or less agree with you, but I do disagree on one small point, which I highlighted above.  But to your larger point that you will almost always doing better financially coming out earlier, I am in agreement.

 

All NIL money is endorsement "in theory".  I put in "in theory" because of course it is often pay for play.   However if you do consider NIL endorsement money often you can get more in college (though you won't get any salary or signing bonus).  The reality is NIL is pay for play even if in theory it is endorsement money.    Rich boosters will give a player a 2 million dollar endorsement deal, where from a business standpoint there is no real likelihood of being able to recoup that money, the endorsement may be worth $500,000 to their business (lets say a chain of car dealerships or something), but there are willing to take a 1.5 million dollar loss to keep say Marvin Harrison at their favorite school.  The endorsement money most NFL players get by contrast is by businesses actually looking to make money by making an endorsement deal with the player.

[Bantu]

12 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

The media doesn't do a good job of breaking this down. One would assume (hope?) these players' reps are spelling this out for them.

 

1. It's not a matter of taking NIL money or taking an NFL contract. You can get endorsement money either way. You'll almost certainly get more as a pro player. It's being talked about as if it's either/or, when in fact it's just taking likely less NIL money so you can turn down big money from he NFL on top of it. 

 

2. Whether these guys come out now, next year, or the year after, they still have to sign a 4 year rookie contract, with a 5th year option. SO, waiting just means you'll enter Free Agency a year later, thus giving up a year of top of market money in your prime. For a guy like Harrison, looking at 5 years of inflation, that is likely $30+ mil and who knows how much in guarantees. Again, he'd be giving that up for nothing, financially speaking. 

 

There may be reasons for guys to stay in school another year, but financially it is nothing but  major downside, and it's not being reported accurately. 

 

 

Thanks for breaking this down, as this is new to me and I assume a lot of others, as well. I can't fact-check you, either, LOL 

[method man]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

 

Yup.

 

I don't understand anyone wanting to keep Wylie at this juncture. He has a 9.4M cap hit next year... his dead cap # would be around 7.8M. Worth it.

 

This isn't like we're talking about Moses or Scherff here. This is Andrew Wylie.

It is less than $2M in cap savings. Wylie is better than your standard vet min lineman. At minimum, I’d keep him as a utility backup

Edited December 8, 2023 by method man

[Warhead36]

I kinda agree with GC on one point: the value of LT has diminished some in today's NFL. Opposing defenses move their best pass rushers all over the place now, its not like back in the day when the best rusher only rushed from the blind side. Teams have figured out that rushing your best rusher against a favorable matchup is better then just only rushing him from the blind side. 

 

And ultimately, you can have one real good LT and still have a crap OL. Its more important to have five solid guys who work well together. If we draft a stud LT but are still trotting the likes of Wylie, Charles, and Paul out there how much good does that do us? 

 

If we're picking in the top 5 we need to go for a legit gamechanging blue chip talent. One LT isn't gonna accomplish that.