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2023 NFL Draft Watch and Post Thread - The Hangover Special


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I know nothing about Tinsley but posted a wrtie up and stats from others for those interested.  This are monster stats in 2021

 

 

10 minutes ago, RWJ said:

We shall see how it plays out in camp.  I still think the Stanford WR surprises.  :) 

 

Sounds like you watched him.  I haven't yet. But i'll get to it.  In general I don't have high hopes for any UDFA unless its a player I was already very familiar with. 

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48 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

This is my annual post which gets ignored every year, but here goes again.  (As a side note, I really should save this so I don't have to write it every year, but I don't have that type of forethought, planning, or intelligence, apparently, so here goes.)

 

1. Draft grades mean absolutely nothing.  

2. Draft grades mean absolutely nothing.

3. Draft grades mean absolutely nothing.

 

 

No doubt.

 

What grabs me is the infautation with the national media and the NY Giants.  A year ago they were the step child of this division.  Now its us.

 

We tie them in one game.  And the other game had some questionable calls and "Redacted" put up another one of his vintage late season stinkers and this team still almost beat them.

 

Yet the Sporting News doesn't think we now belong on the same planet with the Giants.  It's wild.   It's not just Sporting News

 

Does it mean anything now?  Of course not.  But for reasons I've spelled out in other threads, I hate the Giants and hate all the love they are getting this off season. :ols:

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8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I know nothing about Tinsley but here's a wrtie up and stats from others for those interested.  This are monster stats in 2021, the year he played with Dotson.

 

Sounds like you watched him.  I haven't yet. But i'll get to it.  In general I don't have high hopes for any UDFA unless its a player I was already very familiar with. 

I have.  He was McKee's main target.  Philly drafted McKee, I believe knowing we were going to take him and they want draft capital back.  McKee doesn't even fit Philly's system.  

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Just now, RWJ said:

I have.  He was McKee's main target.  Philly drafted McKee, I believe knowing we were going to take him and they want draft capital back.  McKee doesn't even fit Philly's system.  

 

Just noticed he transferred to Penn State.  I'll get to watching him maybe tomorrow. 

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8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

No doubt.

 

What grabs me is the infautation with the national media and the NY Giants.  A year ago they were the step child of this division.  Now its us.

 

We tie them in one game.  And the other game had some questionable calls and "Redacted" put up another one of his vintage late season stinkers and this team still almost beat them.

 

Yet the Sporting News doesn't think we now belong on the same planet with the Giants.  It's wild.   It's not just Sporting News

 

Does it mean anything now?  Of course not.  But for reasons I've spelled out in other threads, I hate the Giants and hate all the love they are getting this off season. :ols:

 

It's because at the end of the day, we're still "Washington", the undisputed red-headed step child of the division.  We're in the NFC East, but we're an afterthought when it comes to the media and national recognition.  That's hard to do, and truly remarkable.  Hopefully we get some love once the new owner steps in, and more importantly, we finally have a franchise QB.  That's the other main reason we're a laughingstock and an afterthought in the national media.

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14 minutes ago, samy316 said:

 

It's because at the end of the day, we're still "Washington", the undisputed red-headed step child of the division.  We're in the NFC East, but we're an afterthought when it comes to the media and national recognition.  That's hard to do, and truly remarkable.  Hopefully we get some love once the new owner steps in, and more importantly, we finally have a franchise QB.  That's the other main reason we're a laughingstock and an afterthought in the national media.

 

Agree.  but it was fun when the Giants in recent years were looked down on, too. :ols:

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36 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 i don't know the dude but that cuts both ways.   I watched a coupe of interviews and as I mentioned came off like a good kid.

 

If the DUI and suspension for 4 games for embellishing his work sheets is nothing -- cool.  Probably is nothinh.  Just saying its part of the narrative for Rodriguez whether justfied or not.    

 

I like the pick, like the player.  He has a small disclaimer on him which is not the case I believe with the others.  Good chance the disclaimer means nothing.  but will see.

 

https://www.on3.com/college/kentucky-wildcats/news/additional-details-arise-on-suspensions-for-chris-rodriguez-jordan-wright-uk-healthcare/

 

Report: Additional details arise on the suspensions for Chris Rodriguez, Jordan Wright

The Chris Rodriguez suspension saga just got a bit deeper. After an NCAA investigation on Rodriguez and his Kentucky teammate Jordan Wright over the offseason that has bled into the early portion of the 2022 season, some light may have been shed on the details surrounding the suspensions.

According to documents obtained by the Lexington Herald-Leader, the two UK football players, who were employed by UK HealthCare, were clocking in inaccurate time cards for their shifts. The HL noted that two players specifically were investigated in the matter, and those two names, we now know, were Rodriguez and Wright’s.

“One week I noticed that some of them were clocking in 5 or 6 days a week,” one UK HealthCare employee told the HL, via KSR’s Nick Roush. “Mostly 12 hour shifts, some as much as 14. When I made this realization, the next morning during our impromptu ‘morning meeting’ we usually have prior to bed meeting, I mentioned to her that I did not feel comfortable doing their time anymore. She simply nodded her head and said she would take care of them from that point on.”

 

...Rodriguez won’t see the field until Kentucky’s next SEC road tip against Ole Miss on Oct. 1. In total, Wright only had to miss the season-opener, while Rodriguez received the brunt of the punishment with a four-game suspension.

I read this article earlier today. Hopefully he has turned a corner and gets his **** together. 

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Keim, listened to part of his new podcast

 

A.  Norwell and Rouilier likely to be cut

 

B.  They likely will lookn for veteran cuts at LB and sign one.  They loved Jack Campbell, were surprised he went that early.  Liked Henley, too

 

C.  They like the position flex Quan gives them in the seconday -- will help them in packages, including helpiing them keep to 2 LB sets without needing 3.

 

D.  Considered TEs in the draft but feel good still about the ones they have in house.  

 

E.  Not sure right now who starts at LG

 

F. Not sure what happens with Kendall Fuller.  Corners get hurt.  Good to keep depth.  but he would save 8 million and change on the cap

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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54 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

No doubt.

 

What grabs me is the infautation with the national media and the NY Giants.  A year ago they were the step child of this division.  Now its us.

 

We tie them in one game.  And the other game had some questionable calls and "Redacted" put up another one of his vintage late season stinkers and this team still almost beat them.

 

Yet the Sporting News doesn't think we now belong on the same planet with the Giants.  It's wild.   It's not just Sporting News

 

Does it mean anything now?  Of course not.  But for reasons I've spelled out in other threads, I hate the Giants and hate all the love they are getting this off season. :ols:

Try living in NY as a Skins/Commanders fan! It’s nauseating! The media and the fans!

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I can't see us cutting Fuller. Good, experienced CBs are hard to come by. $8 Mil is a decent amount to save but I'm fine keeping Fuller and paying him. After Fuller our CB corps is extremely young. And its not like Fuller is old. He just turned 28.

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1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

No doubt.

 

What grabs me is the infautation with the national media and the NY Giants.  A year ago they were the step child of this division.  Now its us.

 

We tie them in one game.  And the other game had some questionable calls and "Redacted" put up another one of his vintage late season stinkers and this team still almost beat them.

 

Yet the Sporting News doesn't think we now belong on the same planet with the Giants.  It's wild.   It's not just Sporting News

 

Does it mean anything now?  Of course not.  But for reasons I've spelled out in other threads, I hate the Giants and hate all the love they are getting this off season. :ols:

 

It's just a QB thing.

 

Any outsider can analyze our QB situation and safely say it's "unproven" because it is.

With [redacted] at least we knew what we were getting, but right now it's a complete enigma.

 

Big media is just doing the safe thing by placing us below the other NFC East teams. On paper we certainly look worse than them.

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2 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

This is my annual post which gets ignored every year, but here goes again.  (As a side note, I really should save this so I don't have to write it every year, but I don't have that type of forethought, planning, or intelligence, apparently, so here goes.)

 

1. Draft grades mean absolutely nothing.  

2. Draft grades mean absolutely nothing.

3. Draft grades mean absolutely nothing.

 

The 2012 Seahawks draft which netted them Russell Wilson and several other starters was graded an F.  

 

There is absolutely no way to know if a draft class is going to be good, bad or average until 2-3 seasons down the road.  You can start to get an inkling after 1 year, but it's really not until after the second year you really have a feeling for how the players are developing.  

 

The pundits grade drafts based on one thing, and one thing alone: how the team did against their draft board.  I don't care if it's Mel (who I love), PFF, Thor, or any other draftnik site, none of them grade players the way any of the 32 teams do, and each of the 32 teams do it somewhat differently.  They will use words like "reach" and "value."  A reach is simply a pick which based on THEIR board the player should have gone later.  Value is a player who they predicted earlier who fell.  But to have a "reach" or a "value" pick, you have to compare it against something.  And in this case, they are comparing it to their own analysis.  

 

They will also say things like "you could have gotten this player later."  Well, unless they have a DeLorean Time Machine, there is no way to substantiate that claim.  If one team took a player earlier than the punditry thought they should go, what makes you think another team or two wouldn't have had a similar grade or taken them early? 

 

The other fatal flaw in the punditries rankings is they only see a partial picture of the players: they see film, combine numbers, and some of the workouts, including senior bowl practices.  They do not see medicals or participate in interviews and conversations.  They also don't rank based on scheme fit, because how could they? So their ranking is inherently flawed.  And it's the basis of the grading.  

 

Some GM said it would be easy to get A grades in the draft: just look up the mock drafts and big boards, and follow them.  If you follow the punditry, you get a good grade.

 

Anyway, this is my annual reminder not to listen to, believe or put any stock in any draft grade given out by anybody, whether it's good or bad.  Graders will love the pick if it aligns with their thinking. 

It's done on this board every year. We be mad when our players don't get selected by our team. 

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1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

I can't see us cutting Fuller. Good, experienced CBs are hard to come by. $8 Mil is a decent amount to save but I'm fine keeping Fuller and paying him. After Fuller our CB corps is extremely young. And its not like Fuller is old. He just turned 28.

 

I agree with this. You can't roll with a rookie and St Juste. St Juste is injured way, way too much. Why cut Fuller and turn a strength into a potential weakness? If we cut Fuller, who would our top back up be behind Forbes and St Juste? 

 

Also, I'm going to break with the ES draft community and say that I love the Forbes pick. Sure. He's light. But, today's NFL is less physical You can't make the same kind of contact with receivers that you used to be able to and his weight isn't going to be as big a disability in this era. Also, we run a zone heavy scheme where he likely won't be jamming a lot. Forbes also seems to be a willing and effective tackler in run support and in the screen game. 

 

You're talking about a guy with almost the same arm length as St Juste, who runs a 4.35, has a 10'11" broad jump, a 1.48 10 yard split, elite awareness as a zone corner and elite ball production. I really think he could be a star. A rich man's Deangelo Hall. I wouldn't take Murphy or Jack Campbell over him, even given hindsight. I view this as a swing for the fences pick that also matches a team need. He's has elite production, elite traits, minus his size, and is a fantastic match for the scheme. 

 

I really like the Martin pick as well and think he could potentially complete the secondary, at least for this year. St Juste, Fuller, Forbes, Curl, Forest, and Martin is a very good top 6 DB's. 


If Young has a rebound year, we could be one very good LB core away from being an elite defense. Unfortunately, our LB core is probably in the bottom 1/3 of the league. 

 

I do wish we had upgraded at TE, OT and LB, but you can't do all of that in one year. I will say, that I think I would rather have had Darnell Washington than Stromberg. I might have moved up to secure that outcome. 

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The Mayhew comment about not being aggressive enough on trades was initially a bit frustrating, however on balance at least we didn’t trade 2024 picks away. If we end up with what’s seems like an inevitable FO overhaul, at least we are set fair in terms of cap and draft picks. 

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8 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

A.  Norwell and Rouilier likely to be cut

B.  They likely will lookn for veteran cuts at LB and sign one.  They loved Jack Campbell, were surprised he went that early.  Liked Henley, too

E.  Not sure right now who starts at LG

I can't see how Roullier can't be cut due to both health and salary

The issue with cutting Norwell is right now, he is still the best LG on the roster. Part of what the teams FA moves makes me a little crazy

Thrilled to hear how much they liked Campbell and Henley. Either would have been great additions and solidified the D.

A shame Campbell went so early. I had him ranked 24th which I thought was higher than everyone else. Guess not as high as Detroit 🤣

5 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:


If Young has a rebound year, we could be one very good LB core away from being an elite defense. Unfortunately, our LB core is probably in the bottom 1/3 of the league. 

 

Our LBs are absolutely in the bottom 1/3 of the league right now.  They has left themselves at the mercy of teams cutting players to hope to find a player that fits their needs and is willing to come to Washington.

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8 hours ago, NYSkins21 said:

Try living in NY as a Skins/Commanders fan! It’s nauseating! The media and the fans!

 

I went to college there, I've experienced it. lol but not these days, but most of my in laws are in NY. 

29 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

I can't see how Roullier can't be cut due to both health and salary

The issue with cutting Norwell is right now, he is still the best LG on the roster. Part of what the teams FA moves makes me a little crazy

Thrilled to hear how much they liked Campbell and Henley. Either would have been great additions and solidified the D.

A shame Campbell went so early. I had him ranked 24th which I thought was higher than everyone else. Guess not as high as Detroit 🤣

Our LBs are absolutely in the bottom 1/3 of the league right now.  They has left themselves at the mercy of teams cutting players to hope to find a player that fits their needs and is willing to come to Washington.

 

I am not as worried about the LBs as some, specially after the upgrades in the secondary.  they go 2 LBs and sometimes even just 1 LB.  

 

Don't get me wrong, I want one.  But more nervous about guard.  I like Cosmi, but he's always hurt.  And LG feels wildcardish.

 

I wouldnt cut Fuller.  i like St. Juste but he also isn't durable.

54 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I don't get the love for Washington and I never have. He's an undersized tackle that can catch and has knee issues. He went in the 4rth, right?

 

some off the field issues but more so injury concerns popped up about him just before the draft.  He's more than just a blocker but lol i don't care anymore since we didn't draft him.

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10 hours ago, samy316 said:

 

It's because at the end of the day, we're still "Washington", the undisputed red-headed step child of the division.  We're in the NFC East, but we're an afterthought when it comes to the media and national recognition.  That's hard to do, and truly remarkable.  Hopefully we get some love once the new owner steps in, and more importantly, we finally have a franchise QB.  That's the other main reason we're a laughingstock and an afterthought in the national media.

*burgundy headed step child lol

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44 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I went to college there, I've experienced it. lol but not these days, but most of my in laws are in NY. 

 

I am not as worried about the LBs as some, specially after the upgrades in the secondary.  they go 2 LBs and sometimes even just 1 LB.  

 

Don't get me wrong, I want one.  But more nervous about guard.  I like Cosmi, but he's always hurt.  And LG feels wildcardish.

 

I wouldnt cut Fuller.  i like St. Juste but he also isn't durable.

 

some off the field issues but more so injury concerns popped up about him just before the draft.  He's more than just a blocker but lol i don't care anymore since we didn't draft him.

LG is an issue and so is RT still. I know Wylie is penciled in there, but he's not good at it. At least he never has been. He handled Riddeck and Sweat in the superbowl playing on a slick field and being allowed to drag them to the ground.

 

I don't think our Oline is that much improved over last year as of right now.

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Commanders have addressed nearly every major weakness. Will that be enough?

 

The roster with which Ron Rivera will coach for his job appears to be set. Even if the Washington Commanders don’t make any more major moves, they still will have arguably the best squad of the Rivera era, one with proven strengths, patched holes and improved depth. They will have not only a promising young quarterback but also a solid veteran backup — and despite insisting all offseason that Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett will compete for the job, Rivera seemed to make a Freudian slip Saturday.

 
 

During a news conference, Rivera listed all of the upgrades his team had made and called Brissett “a backup quarterback coming off of one of his best years.” Then he added, “I shouldn’t say backup but a guy that’s going to compete to play for us.”

Over the past four months, Washington has addressed the main issues that torpedoed last season. It hired a new offensive coordinator, Eric Bieniemy, and remade the offensive line with more youth. It maintained a key member of the defensive line by retaining Daron Payne on a four-year deal, motivated a disappointing part of it by declining Chase Young’s fifth-year option and addressed a lack of turnovers by using its first-round pick on ball-hawking cornerback Emmanuel Forbes Jr.

 
 

Rivera seems to have confronted every major weakness, pressed every big button that could help his team win as many games as possible in 2023, which will be critical to keeping his job under potential new ownership. But did he approach this offseason with greater urgency?

“I would say no,” Rivera said. “We had a plan coming out of the season. We mapped it out with the current ownership. We stuck to that plan, [went] into free agency and [came] out of it with the depth and potential starters that we really like. … You look at those different things that we’ve done, and you feel positive.”

In the draft, Washington prioritized defensive backs and offensive linemen. Its top four picks were Forbes, explosive nickelback/safety Quan Martin, smart center Ricky Stromberg and light but athletic guard/tackle Braeden Daniels. Like many picks from the past two years, they have backgrounds that suggest they can be immediate contributors.

 

There are still plenty of questions. Howell, with his one game of NFL experience, is the most glaring. The offensive line additions may be more quantity than quality. Middle linebacker Cody Barton has just one year of starting experience, and Washington replaced two of its top position coaches, Chris Harris (defensive backs) and John Matsko (offensive line), with their assistants, Brent Vieselmeyer and Travelle Wharton, who have never run their own rooms. The third-string quarterback — who has played at least one game in every season of Rivera’s tenure — is Jake Fromm, who has struggled in three career games.

 
 

...“The draft is not a finish line. We’re not done,” General Manager Martin Mayhew said Saturday. “... [There’s] a lot of time before the season starts, and we’re going to keep trying to make our roster better.”

 

But will there be moves to make? In three years under Rivera, the only time Washington has made significant additions after the draft was in 2021, when it scooped up left tackle Charles Leno Jr. and defensive back Bobby McCain. There are still quality free agents available — including linebackers, offensive linemen and quarterback Teddy Bridgewater — and more could hit the market in the coming weeks.

 

Yet even if there were moves to make, how would Washington make them? It has just $2.4 million in salary cap space, per database website Over the Cap, and figures to need more than that just to sign its draft class. The Commanders could create space by cutting or restructuring the contracts of cornerback Kendall Fuller and center Chase Roullier. If designated as post-June 1 cuts, each would create roughly $3.5 million in dead salary cap but save the team more than $8 million.

“It’s way too early to discuss all that stuff,” Rivera said. “Guys are here. They’re working out; they’re working hard. This is how the draft has fallen for us.”

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/04/30/commanders-offseason-ron-rivera/

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14 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

LG is an issue and so is RT still. I know Wylie is penciled in there, but he's not good at it. At least he never has been. He handled Riddeck and Sweat in the superbowl playing on a slick field and being allowed to drag them to the ground.

 

I don't think our Oline is that much improved over last year as of right now.

 

I am not down on Wylie as you are.  When you factor time in pass protectioon, he's been good.  raw numbers not so much, as to sacks given up, Mahomes runs to his right often and holds the ball for long.  Howell gets rid of the ball fast.  Wylie didn't just play well in the SB and that's it.

 

Cosmi I think will be a good LG if he can stay healthy.

 

Even without Rouillier -- center should be good.  We now have 3 good centers on the roster.  Center more than any spot contributed to them falling off a cliff last season.  When Larsen came back they hit a winning streak, when he was lost again, the team lost.

 

I like Chris Paul's potential but he's a wildcard.

 

I think the depth is decent but they needed to add another front line starter to the O line in the draft but didn't do it.  Stromberg IMO will be good but not sure he starts right away.  Daniels i am intrigued by but he's a project.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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I got sucked way more into looking at these players and this draft than I have the last few years so here are my thoughts:

 

Big picture, you can't ignore the fact that they took two DBs at the top of the draft when they have a pretty good secondary and pretty big holes elsewhere.  Any comparison to the Eagles taking two DL in the top of the draft is flawed.  Even if everybody stays healthy and plays up to expectations, the Eagles will be able to get everybody that is on their roster and a significant player on their DL at least as many snaps as they got last year and still get the two rookies at least 15+ snaps a game.  Washington can't say the same thing.  If something else happens (e.g. they cut Fuller and use the cap space to get a TE or OL, they trade somebody, or somebody gets hurt), it could work out.  To be a team with the holes they have and be in that situation doesn't make much sense.  Just another case of poor asset management that this team has been practicing for the last few decades now.

 

Thoughts on individual players:

Forbes:  Seems likely a boom or bust player for where he was drafted.  He's either a top of the line #1 corner and the best corner available when they drafted (boom) or he's more of a 4th CB (bust given he's a first round pick).  The idea that he can easily gain 15 pounds and retain the speed and athleticism that made him a top flight college corner seems unlikely.  He's likely been trying to gain weight the last 1 year+.  It can't be a surprise that was a knock on him.

 

Martin: He almost seems like the opposite.  I don't think his upside is very high.  I don't think he'll ever make a pro bowl.  But I could seem him playing a productive role in a good secondary.

 

Stromberg:  He seems like he'll be a useful OL in the future.  I doubt he'll be very good this year but given some time and experience, he can be at least the first interior lineman off the bench in case of injury.

 

Daniels:  He might have uses in jumbo packages as an extra OL or even lined up in the back field as FB.  But other than that, I don't really see how he plays.  You can see why they like him, but I think they could have gotten a better player (and even OL) at that pick.  Another case, where I don't think the answer is just he's going to gain 15-20 lbs.  Presumably, he's been trying and if he does it might cost him some of the athleticism and quickness that makes him interesting.

 

(And I don't know, but this where maybe the staff has some reason to believe  that there's some reason that Forbes and Daniels specifically are guys where they can get them to put on weight and retain the quickness and agility that makes them interesting players.  If they can/do, kudos to them.)

 

Henry:  I could maybe seem him being part of a DL rotation.  He's not very good in space so I can't see how he'd play LB.  I doubt he's ever more than a special teams player.

 

Rodriguez Jr.  I actually like him.  He gets low and has a good balance.  A lot of late round power college backs are guys that are big and run up right, and I don't think that can work in the NFL.  But he's not that tall and gets low to run.  His burst isn't great, but his speed isn't awful.  At the NFL level, he's not even running away from a lot of LBs but he's got enough speed that he he'll get more yards before he's run down.  Given the lack of quality tackling (and lack of practice of tackling) in the NFL today, I think there might be space for him on an NFL team.

 

I think there are two issues for him:  1.  Can he come off the bench and do what he does cold?  For any sport, it is one thing when you are in the game regularly to get in a flow and be successful.  It is another on a random 3rd and 2 to be able to come in cold and do what he does.  2.  Can he catch the ball?  I don't think in today's NFL on 3rd and 6 you can just put a back in there and say well he's going to block.  He needs to be able to go out, catch a 4 yard pass, and get turned up quickly to pick up the extra 2 yards.  He didn't do much receiving in college, but some on twitter have said he's shown decent pass catching skill in workouts.

 

I think how he does in the NFL will depend directly on how well he does as a part time back.

 

Jones:  He needs to get stronger and bigger without losing agility/athleticism or much better in space to be a viable NFL player.  If he can do either one, he could be a better player than Henry.  For now, he seems like he's best suited for the practice squad.

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