2023 NFL Draft Watch and Post Thread - The Hangover Special

[srtman04]

This was an incredibly deep draft this year.    I think it's possible most of our players are going to shine 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

20 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Sounds like how you feel about my RB age cliff posts, now, about that age cliff, when we're talking about the RB drought 2009-2014, and it's distorting effect on the number....<fades out>

 

Confused.  RB age cliffs as a button of mine?  Or you saying something else? 

Edited May 1, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

59 minutes ago, Die Hard said:

That profile for Henry sounds very similar to one of our past draft picks LB Ryan Anderson.

 

Nobody sounds similar to Ryan Anderson. It's important we don't make this comparison flippantly, as Anderson was an all time bad draft pick once the combine made it clear how small and nonathletic he was.

 

Note the arm length difference. Anderson's is all time bad.

 

How short is 31.5 inches for an Edge rusher? Only 3% of all NFL prospects have an arm length that short. Not players in the NFL, but prospects. He was never going to make it in the NFL, yet Snyder/Allen/Gruden (or whoever was in charge of that pick) decided to take him in the 2nd round.

 

 

 

Edited May 1, 2023 by Always A Commander Never A Captain

[Chump Bailey]

I like KJ Henry though he is not particularly explosive or bendy from the limited games I've watched. However, all the following went after Henry and IMO were better picks with much more upside:

 

Robert Beal

BJ Thompson

Nick Hampton

Jose Ramirez

 

Lonnie Phelps going undrafted was mystifying to me. 

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, Die Hard said:

That profile for Henry sounds very similar to one of our past draft picks LB Ryan Anderson.

I said this before: if you get Ryan Anderson in the 5th, it’s a win.  
 

You’re not going to get an athletic freak, ideal size, polished technique, clean off the field resume guy in the 5th.  

 

But if you get Ryan Anderson in the 5th? You take that.  
 

Typically, 5-7th rounders are intended as special teams players who could develop and are all competing for a roster spot.  If you get more than 2 years of service out of them, that’s positive.  If they turn into a contributor anywhere, it’s a win.  And if they end up as a top end starter is a blessing from God almighty.  

[mh86]

I’m excited to see how these rookies pan out. They may not have been who I/we wanted, but they’re who we’ve got. Wish them all the best, let’s gooooo

[method man]

@Voice_of_Reason must love Thor's appearance on the Galdi podcast today

[The Sisko]

18 hours ago, tmandoug1 said:

I read this article earlier today. Hopefully he has turned a corner and gets his **** together. 

I'm surprised this is even a thing. That sounds like a pretty tame scheme for the Konfederate Konference. They've been all pros at paying their players for years.

[method man]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Love the player.  But like I said it annoys the heck out of me, too.   

 

I can argue for him at 47, i made a post about it 3 days before the draft.  He wouldn't have been my top guy at 47, but I like him enough where I embrace the pick.  But trading up for him, would likely be costly -- he's not worth two players -- that is, losing a player to trade up.  

 

And as far as Forbes, I do think he would have gone in the first round.  Enough smoke about that.  I even said he's on the table for me in the later first.  But my issue with it is the draft was so deep at CB.   They could have gone Murphy, N. Smith early -- i love Campbell, 16 seems rich, but i'd dig that probably more too.   For the need based draft people, I do agree with the team that they needed both an outside corner and nickel.  Especially if the nickel is a hybrid type like Quan.

 

I am listening to Logan Paulsen who as usual does a great job dissecting players and their fits to our scheme.  And he watched a lot of film and also talks to scouts.

 

He loves that they went Forbes and Quan back to back.  He loves both players.  He doesn't say if Forbes was top on his board.  He did say Quan was his top player when 47 came up.  I gather he must have said that on the team's broadcast?  i know he was doing one on youtube during the draft but I didn't watch it at the time.

 

They play a ton of 3 safety sets -- Quan can play post-strong safety-nickle.    He also talked about how the defense tanks when he's off the field. 

 

As to Forbes he said he is up to 175 now. 

 

All over Queens and Long Island as for in laws.  Undergrad I went to Stony Brook.

 

My wife is a Stony Brook alum and her family lives 5 minutes away. Nice place to visit in the summer

[NYSkins21]

4 minutes ago, method man said:

 

My wife is a Stony Brook alum and her family lives 5 minutes away. Nice place to visit in the summer

Nice! What town mm?

[Skinsinparadise]

 

To the point below, Grant Paulsen said he heard Dawand Jones wasn't on this team's board

 

 

 

[NYSkins21]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

wow. that's close.  Loved Port Jefferson.  Use to go to Tara's for some drinks back in the day when i went to college a long time ago. 

Nice. Tara’s still there. Can’t beat $1 burgers and $5 pigs feet lol!

[The Consigliere]

On 4/30/2023 at 5:15 AM, Skinsinparadise said:

I'd add.  Granted there is no way to know.  And Braeden Daniels was one of the wildcard type O lineman that I was intrigued with.

 

But it seems intutive that the pass rushers would come off the board before Daniels.   If they took McGuire, Herbig, or Abdullah with their 4th round pick, they likely wouldn't have both lost out on them and to boot lost a 6th rounder to trade up for likely a lesser player.  I'd bet Daniels would have been there in the 5th.

 

Granted there is no way to know.  But hey this is a football board where we can spitball opinions.  

 

To me, I like Gribble and their player evaluations.    But listening to Mayhew comes off yesterday like hey we with hindsight would have done some things differently -- while I appreciate the honesty it reinforces my perception.

 

I do think Dallas, NY, and the Eagles have smarter FOs than ours.  Though I didn't love Dallas' draft yesterday but their dude Will McClay is one of the best in the business.

 

I don't think Rivera sucks like some do.  I think he does solid B work.  But he is in a divison with the Eagles who do A work, always playing chess.  And the NY Giants are run really well now, and have an aggressiveness than Ron doesn't share.  Dallas typically drafts well. 

 

I think if he and this team were in the NFC South, we'd be fine.   But alas we are in a division with some shrewd FOs IMO.  And just being solid on that front isn't enough.

 

I was good with Rivera running this FO with Dan at the helm because heck who else can we attact with that douche in control?  Plus some GM would end up being Dan's stooge in short order.    But with Harris coming on, Ron's days are almost for sure numbered (as head of the FO)  and they should be IMO.  Not because he sucks but because we need to do better than solid. 

Pretty much. This is a problem DC sports has in general with a lot of teams historically, which is, often, not horrible GM's, but rarely ever good GM's/FO's, or great one's and as a result, unless you hit a hail mary coaching hire, you aren't contending for squat, and if you get a poor GM, which is what we got with Casserly, and Cerrato, it's significantly worse than just "okay". 

 

And yep, the fact that Mayhew and them said that post draft, while I'm not gonna lay out screeds over it, it's just an indictment of a FO that lacks creativity and cutting edge minds at the top of hill. The Bengals can get away with that because they landed Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase in back to back drafts, after they'd already added Higgins as well in the Burrow class, and as a result, boom, all you need then is a league average OL and an in his prime Joe Mixon and you're in the playoffs as long as Burrow's on his feet. Well, we haven't hit on a franchise level QB of that talent in the draft since the Great Depression, so we badly need to improve decision making at the top. 

 

I'll completely own that they've generally been solid in the draft to above average (really for quite a while, extending to prior regimes), but this past draft was not ambitious at all, and not particularly impressive. If they hit on 3 guys, its par for the course in terms of average return (2 starts plus a bench player with starter potential is probably about average for a full draft haul by year 3 of rookie contracts) which is fine, but considering none of these guys will be a catalyst to move any needle, it's not great. The Defense is likely to age out and never produce a single playoff win, due to the lack of attention to the offense and QB position despite the quality build of it that began in 2017. Quite disappointing, but as I posted yesterday in another forum, if you look at the past 23 years of this century:

 

2/23:  years have been 10+ win seasons (both of course, just 10)

 

12/23 years have been 1 game above .500, .500, or 1 game below .500

 

9/23 years have been 6 win or less seasons, with 7 of the 9 being 5 wins or less. 

 

It's in keeping w/fandom of the team the past 30 years, the team has been consistently floating more than 90% of the time around mediocrity (7-9 win seasons) with 40% of that time actually being 6 wins or fewer seasons (much worse than mediocre) but of course never quite so bad that they could land that dream QB other than 2019 and 2013 when they finished 2nd to last both years but had traded away the pick in one case, and wasted it on Young in the second (hyperbole, I know, but I'm still pissed about it). 

 

Everything about them is basically sub mediocre. I appreciate that Ron fumigated the Snyderstuff out of the place, but that alone is only good enough to make a mediocre team, you actually need a great coach, which Ron only looked like w/a franchise QB, and only some of the time at that, and he doesn't have one here and it shows. 

 

Need better everything, hopefully the new brass isn't shy about bringing in bright young minds, or older minds that are flexible and innovative. What we have flat out isn't good enough. Detroit only started to turn it around after they flushed Mayhew after all, and since when are Detroit and Carolina cast off's anyone's idea of elite anything? Heck Mayhew was even around for NYG's decline into a blind stupor late last decade to boot. Let's get more talented people in here, period. 

[Skinsinparadise]

25 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Everything about them is basically sub mediocre. I appreciate that Ron fumigated the Snyderstuff out of the place, but that alone is only good enough to make a mediocre team, you actually need a great coach, which Ron only looked like w/a franchise QB, and only some of the time at that, and he doesn't have one here and it shows. 

 

Need better everything, hopefully the new brass isn't shy about bringing in bright young minds, or older minds that are flexible and innovative. What we have flat out isn't good enough. Detroit only started to turn it around after they flushed Mayhew after all, and since when are Detroit and Carolina cast off's anyone's idea of elite anything? Heck Mayhew was even around for NYG's decline into a blind stupor late last decade to boot. Let's get more talented people in here, period. 

 

I think they are better than subpar at drafting.  They are IMO good at it.  But bad at using the board including building future draft capital and maximizing assets among other things.

 

It will all come down to Howell.  Will see.  If he's the goods.  Then the rest will fall into place.

 

They basically had arguably the 2nd worst QB play in the league last year and still finished 500.  so it stands to reason if Howell is good, lets say Derek Carr level of good (and yeah I know that's a major wildcard and have no idea if he will be that level good) this team has a chance to be decent -- considering that the NFC's QBs aren't hot right now.

 

This roster with good QB play works.  It's deep enough and good enough IMO in that context.  But its not a roster that can elevate below par QB play -- few rosters could aside from SF and the occasional straggler.

 

I am not really sweating it at all.  Dan is the worst owner in the NFL hands down.  These team issues including the FO makeup, lack of foresight, etc, isn't a Washington culture thing.  It's a Dan Snyder thing.  He will be gone hopefully in a few weeks.

 

You'll love Josh Harris.  Reading about him he's obsessed with having a top flight GM-FO, its his calling card.  He's also an analytics freak who has actually lectured on the topic.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think they are better than subpar at drafting.  They are IMO good at it.  But bad at using the board including building future draft capital and maximizing assets among other things.

 

It will all come down to Howell.  Will see.  If he's the goods.  Then the rest will fall into place.

 

They basically had arguably the 2nd worst QB play in the league last year and still finished 500.  so it stands to reason if Howell is good, lets say Derek Carr level of good (and yeah I know that's a major wildcard and have no idea if he will be that level good) this team has a chance to be decent -- considering that the NFC's QBs aren't hot right now.

 

This roster with good QB play works.  It's deep enough and good enough IMO in that context.  But its not a roster that can elevate below par QB play -- few rosters could aside from SF and the occasional straggler.

 

I am not really sweating it at all.  Dan is the worst owner in the NFL hands down.  These team issues including the FO makeup, lack of foresight, etc, isn't a Washington culture thing.  It's a Dan Snyder thing.  He will be gone hopefully in a few weeks.

 

You'll love Josh Harris.  Reading about him he's obsessed with having a top flight GM-FO, its his calling card.  He's also an analytics freak who has actually lectured on the topic.

We are really, really good at finding the middle of the road guys that can play for awhile. Sometimes, we find an absolute stallion. 
 

But we stink at acquiring high end talent as we are very risk averse and prefer the steady but sure players versus any player with any bust potential. 
 

GREAT for baseline building and keeping a roster together. Bad for building high end talent.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[PeterMP]

7 minutes ago, KDawg said:

We are really, really good at finding the middle of the road guys that can play for awhile. Sometimes, we find an absolute stallion. 
 

But we stink at acquiring high end talent as we are very risk averse and prefer the steady but sure players versus any player with any bust potential. 
 

GREAT for baseline building and keeping a roster together. Bad for building high end talent.

 

Hard to argue we are good at drafting when you've got Haskins, Young, and Davis as recent first rounders.  Dotson looks to be good, but I don't think today you'd get a consensus among experts that he was worth the draft slot.

[KDawg]

Just now, PeterMP said:

 

Hard to argue we are good at drafting when you've got Haskins, Young, and Davis as recent first rounders.  Dotson looks to be good, but I don't think today you'd get a consensus among experts that he was worth the draft slot.

Everyone misses. And Haskins wasn’t a Rivera selection. 
 

Young was essentially a no brainer and literally no one thought otherwise. Davis was drafted early but a good, solid player.

 

We also have found several players under Ron.

 

Gibson, Curl, Hudson, JSW, WBK, The Cheese, Forrest, Bates, St Juste, Butler, Robinson, Howell, Dotson, Mathis (we’ll see). Lots of talent. 
 

Dogging them for kind of missing is unfair.

[PeterMP]

13 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Everyone misses. And Haskins wasn’t a Rivera selection. 
 

Young was essentially a no brainer and literally no one thought otherwise. Davis was drafted early but a good, solid player.

 

We also have found several players under Ron.

 

Gibson, Curl, Hudson, JSW, WBK, The Cheese, Forrest, Bates, St Juste, Butler, Robinson, Howell, Dotson, Mathis (we’ll see). Lots of talent. 
 

Dogging them for kind of missing is unfair.

 

First, I'm not going through the whole draft and say these are misses.  I'm looking at the first round, and I don't think even in the first round they've gotten good value.  If you want to compete for a SuperBowl, you need top end talent and your most likely place to get it is the first round.  And if you aren't getting it there, then getting productive players later in the draft doesn't make you good at drafting.

 

The flip side of everyone misses is that everybody has some success.  You could put be in charge of an NFL draft and after a few years there would be some some success.

 

This is PFF's ranking of the 2021 draft after the 2020 season.  We're 22nd.  Not good.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking-rookie-classes-2021-nfl-draft-best-worst-teams-based-first-year-production#WFT

 

I can't find two years out but the only guy that seems like would make a difference would be St-Juste and I doubt he moves us to the top 1/2.  And I'll pretty much guarantee you with Young at the top of the 2020 draft if you did the samething today for the top of the 2020 draft, you'd get something similar.

 

Here's CBS doing the same thing with last year's draft:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/ranking-entire-2022-nfl-rookie-class-after-year-1-jets-obvious-top-choice-packers-patriots-49ers-in-top-10/

 

We're 21.

 

Again not good.

 

It is very hard to be good at drafting if you don't get good value at the top of the draft, which we seem to struggle with.

 

 

 

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

First, I'm not going through the whole draft and say these are misses.  I'm looking at the first round, and I don't think even in the first round they've gotten good value.  If you want to compete for a SuperBowl, you need top end talent and your most likely place to get it is the first round.  And if you aren't getting it there, then getting productive players later in the draft doesn't make you good at drafting.

 

The flip side of everyone misses is that everybody has some success.  You could put be in charge of an NFL draft and after a few years there would be some some success.

 

This is PFF's ranking of the 2021 draft after the 2020 season.  We're 22nd.  Not good.

 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-ranking-rookie-classes-2021-nfl-draft-best-worst-teams-based-first-year-production#WFT

 

I can't find two years out but the only guy that seems like would make a difference would be St-Juste and I doubt he moves us to the top 1/2.  And I'll pretty much guarantee you with Young at the top of the 2020 draft if you did the samething today for the top of the 2020 draft, you'd get something similar.

 

Here's CBS doing the same thing with last year's draft:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/ranking-entire-2022-nfl-rookie-class-after-year-1-jets-obvious-top-choice-packers-patriots-49ers-in-top-10/

 

We're 21.

 

Again not good.

 

It is very hard to be good at drafting if you don't get good value at the top of the draft, which we seem to struggle with.

 

 

 

I think you’re confusing the conversation.

 

You keep using the word value.

 

A word I keep using to describe where this team stinks at the draft.

 

I’m talking about individual player skills and ability. We find good PLAYERS.

 

You have to be able to separate the player from the strategy. 
 

We find good players.

 

We are dog**** at putting together a good plan, maximizing value and improving our roster’s overall ceiling.

[method man]

2 hours ago, NYSkins21 said:

Nice! What town mm?

 

Setauket

4 hours ago, srtman04 said:

This was an incredibly deep draft this year.    I think it's possible most of our players are going to shine 

 

 

I never understood the ****ing that this draft was not deep. Starting with Hodges-Tomlinson, Skinner, Duncan, Boutte, McKee and Wypler, you had a number of intriguing names in the 6th round this year

[Voice_of_Reason]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Agree with @Voice_of_Reason draft rankings don't matter aside from Rick Snider's grade and Thor Nystrom.

 

Thor’s is meaningless ass hattery based on incomplete analysis and a weegee board.  
 

Snider’s is at least plagiarism of Keim, who knows things, and therefor, by the transitive property, is more valuable.

:P

 

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Thor’s is meaningless ass hattery based on incomplete analysis and a weegee board.  
 

Snider’s is at least plagiarism of Keim, who knows things, and therefor, by the transitive property, is more valuable.

 

I don’t know. I go to Thor for all of my draft needs. Pretty sterling rep.

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, method man said:

@Voice_of_Reason must love Thor's appearance on the Galdi podcast today

I haven’t listened yet but I’m guessing he hates our draft because we didn’t follow his board. Did I come close? 

 

I also bet he didn’t say he way loud wrong about Dotson, Robinson and Malik Willis who he said he was more sure the NFL screwed up than anybody since alamat Jackson, who he didn’t realize was picked in the first round….

 

I am sure I will listen but I’m also pretty sure I know his schtick. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

We are really, really good at finding the middle of the road guys that can play for awhile. Sometimes, we find an absolute stallion. 
 

But we stink at acquiring high end talent as we are very risk averse and prefer the steady but sure players versus any player with any bust potential. 
 

GREAT for baseline building and keeping a roster together. Bad for building high end talent.

 

They are competent drafters -- not exciting, but decent at it.    Some say you need three years to really judge a draft, some players take awhile to develop, some are derailed iniitally by injuries and some start OK but never evolve.  Kiper likes to say if you get 2-3 starters and 1-2 depth players you nail a draft.

 

And by those metrics they've done well. I'll give some credit to @method man on a different topic i mentioned Belichick.  And he goes they drafted pretty bad.  I've heard that before but never bothered to go through their drafts but did so after that -- awful.   We aren't among the best at doing this.  But I've looked at some other team's drafts just randomly as different discussions have come up, and have stumbled on some lemons drafts from plenty of other teams.

 

They do a decent job picking players.  But as you and I agree with, they can use the board much smarter than they do it right now.  And i think they are missing that killer instinct -- both in terms of taking chances and looking ahead. 

 

Looking at this team's drafts.

 

Draft 1. 

 

Chase Young looked really good in seaon 1, season 2 not so much but then got hurt.  I don't blame FOs for injuries unless the player was often injured in college.  For Chase I'll give him this year and decide then.

 

Gibson in the third was a good pick.

 

Charles in the 4th is depth -- depth in the 4th is a winning pick, most 4th rounders are outright busts.  Better to get a starter but depth in the 4th statisitically speaking is a winning pick.

 

Hudson if I recall in the 6th?  Still on the roster -- depth.  Special teams.

 

Curl -- 7th, stud.  their best pick.

 

Smith-Williams -- depth pick.

 

If Chase pans out, this is a good draft.  Not great but good.  Definitely meets Kiper's threshold for a good draft.

 

Draft 2.

 

Jamin Davis -- good player, not great, probably overdrafted.  but success rate in the 2nd half of the first round is about 50-50.   LBs tend to take more time to develop.  Will see what he does this year.

 

Cosmi was good as a rookie, step back last season, stay healthy.  I'll judge this season. At a minimum he's not a bust

 

St, Juste is a great pick in the third -- but stay healthy.

 

D. Brown.  Depth player for Wr.  Supposedly this new staff thinks they can bring more out of him

 

Bates -- solid player -- good 4th rounder.

 

Derrick Forrest -- good 5th round pick.  good season last year.

 

Cheeseman -- nothing exciting but lol he serves a purpose.

 

So far that draft is looking good, again not great but good.

 

Draft 3

 

Jahan Dotson IMO looks like an emerging superstar, will see.  Injuries kept him down.

 

Mathis -- had a good camp but alas got hurt in game 1.

 

Robinson -- got derailed from being shot, played well regardless, I think he will have an even better season this year.  Good pick.

 

Butler - good depth player, special teams stud.

 

Howell -- if they hit on him, it would make a seemingly good draft end up great.  Wildcard.  I am positive about him but will see.  If all he ends up is a backup that would be dissapointing -- but from a pure draft value standpoint a 5th round backup Qb is a hit not a miss.

 

Cole Turner -- had a killer camp and then got hurt.  They are high on him as a player.  Will see this year.

 

Chase Paul -- he might end up their LG this year, at a minimum he's looking to be a backup.  So for a 7th rounder that's looking good.

 

UDFA -- Armani Rogers -- they like him.  Will see.

Edited May 1, 2023 by Skinsinparadise