2023 NFL Draft Watch and Post Thread - The Hangover Special

[Koolblue13]

First rookie to sign.

 

 

[Redwards]

23 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

Damn the Giants had a great draft.

Yep.  And they have a better HC and FO.  And they got better.  

 

We didn't really get much better, IMO, and we're going to either start a very average journeyman QB or, for all intents, a rookie QB, who will absolutely make normal mistakes in his first real year.  I seriously think so many Skins fans are doing what they always do when a young QB looks good for a game: they start making assumptions that that particular level of play is going to be there game after game.  I read so many comments that fans make towards Howell and his expected level of play, like he's a 4th year vet.  It's not fair to the guy.  

 

I think we're firmly in 4th place in the division.

[Conn]

I’m not saying the tempering of expectations about Howell’s potential level of play is incorrect or anything—but referring to a second year player who will have two full training camps and an entire live season in meeting rooms, an NFL strength and conditioning program, practices, etc. under his belt “essentially a rookie QB” couldn’t be more wrong. The extra mini camps, training camp, and 12 months of real NFL experience is huge for a young prospect. Nevermind the limited game action he received. Present day Howell has a huge leg up on the version of himself from this time last year. Without a doubt. Removing all value from that or downplaying it skews the conversation imo. 
 

That doesn’t mean he’s going to be great or even good, mind you. I’m simply saying that he’s really not “basically a rookie QB”. And that matters. 

Edited May 4, 2023 by Conn

[Chump Bailey]

23 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

Damn the Giants had a great draft.

 

I liked their draft insofar as their first 3 selections, but I'm more concerned with the Eagles. They killed it IMO. 

 

Bears

Steelers

Colts

 

I'm sure I'm missing some teams but these also had terrific drafts. 

[The Consigliere]

On 5/1/2023 at 10:15 AM, Skinsinparadise said:

Agree with @Voice_of_Reason draft rankings don't matter aside from Rick Snider's grade and Thor Nystrom.

 

But for those curious here's Brugler

 

I feel myself slowly being herded towards your take on Quan Martin for fear that there will be no seats left on the bandwagon next October/November when it's obvious lol. A lot of interesting analysts beyond you love that guy. 

[Skinsinparadise]

20 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

I feel myself slowly being herded towards your take on Quan Martin for fear that there will be no seats left on the bandwagon next October/November when it's obvious lol. A lot of interesting analysts beyond you love that guy. 

 

I am quirky in many ways about the draft, among them, I have extra man crushing towards players I liked early in the process and then also late in the process.  So I guess i am a primacy, recency triggered guy. 

 

i think with Quan part of it was his uniform was so hard to read -- I hate Illinois uniforms in that their numbers blend in too much with the color of the jersey, not enough contrast.  It's hard enough to read the uniform to find his number let alone do that and also follow Quan who was all over the field.  So I had to stop and pause so much to find him that it took me a lot of work.  So even though it wasn't by design -- I ended up spending more time watching him than any player as to the secondary than any other player at that spot. 

 

Speaking of interesting anaylists -- Greg Cosell is one of my favorites in part because he's was the media film draft guy early before it became so rampant.  He described him well for me whch is he's just a step behind Brian Branch, but a similar player, and a really good player. 

 

I think the comparison is apt.  Like Branch he's not a big dude but is a borderline elite tackler.   He's a good coverage guy in the slot.  IMO he has better range to play FS than Branch did.  And he can play outside corner albiet its not his strength, Branch not so much suited to outside corner.    He's a borderline elite athlete whereas Branch isn't.  So in some ways Quan > Branch.

 

Branch IMO is an even better tackler than Martin albiet both are great. And I like Branch's play recognition skills a half peg more. 

 

You are a PFF guy.  Martin has elite scores in both run grades and tackling grades.  PFF though oddly has him labeled as a corner but Branch as a safety.  As a pure corner, especially outside corner, Martin IMO is just OK, not great.  But as a player at FS, slot, in the box -- I think he's potentially a great player.   But will see.  I've been wrong before.  And i'll be wrong again.

Edited May 6, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am quirky in many ways about the draft, among them, I have extra man crushing towards players I liked early in the process and then also late in the process.  So I guess i am a primacy, recency triggered guy. 

 

i think with Quan part of it was his uniform was so hard to read -- I hate Illinois uniforms in that their numbers blend in too much with the color of the jersey, not enough contrast.  It's hard enough to read the uniform to find his number let alone do that and also follow Quan who was all over the field.  So I had to stop and pause so much to find him that it took me a lot of work.  So even though it wasn't by design -- I ended up spending more time watching him than any player as to the secondary than any other player at that spot. 

 

Speaking of interesting anaylists -- Greg Cosell is one of my favorites in part because he's was the media film draft guy early before it became so rampant.  He described him well for me whch is he's just a step behind Brian Branch, but a similar player, and a really good player. 

 

I think the comparison is apt.  Like Branch he's not a big dude but is a borderline elite tackler.   He's a good coverage guy in the slot.  IMO he has better range to play FS than Branch did.  And he can play outside corner albiet its not his strength, Branch not so much suited to outside corner.    He's a borderline elite athlete whereas Branch isn't.  So in some ways Quan > Branch.

 

Branch IMO is an even better tackler than Martin albiet both are great. And I like Branch's play recognition skills a half peg more. 

 

You are a PFF guy.  Martin has elite scores in both run grades and tackling grades.  PFF though oddly has him labeled as a corner but Branch as a safety.  As a pure corner, especially outside corner, Martin IMO is just OK, not great.  But as a player at FS, slot, in the box -- I think he's potentially a great player.   But will see.  I've been wrong before.  And i'll be wrong again.

 

I don't think there's any way you're totally wrong on Martin. I think he's going to be a good player for us. I don't know how high his ceiling is, to be honest. But I have a pretty good suspicion he won't be bad. 

 

I definitely don't want to see him playing corner, though.

[HoggLife]

On 5/4/2023 at 1:17 PM, Redwards said:

Yep.  And they have a better HC and FO.  And they got better.  

 

We didn't really get much better, IMO, and we're going to either start a very average journeyman QB or, for all intents, a rookie QB, who will absolutely make normal mistakes in his first real year.  I seriously think so many Skins fans are doing what they always do when a young QB looks good for a game: they start making assumptions that that particular level of play is going to be there game after game.  I read so many comments that fans make towards Howell and his expected level of play, like he's a 4th year vet.  It's not fair to the guy.  

 

I think we're firmly in 4th place in the division.

We had a bad draft? Our whole Secondary is top 5 in the NFL now. With a Top 5 DL. WR core is also at least Top 10 with Top 5 potential. RBs Top 12ish. Average TE group. O Line is Top 12ish with potential to be higher. QB is a question for sure and LB is question but we play 2 or less LBs at a time what like 80% of the time. Our team is young and now we are in a position where we can see what Howell has. If he hits then we are contenders for a long time. If he doesn't hit then we can trade the farm next year to move up and get a QB. People want everything fixed in one off-season. That doesn't happen. This team is getting built the right way. In almost 40 years of being a fan of this team I'm excited again for the first time in a long time. We are 1 stud LB away from being a very special D. And we have enough weapons on offense to win games. Especially if this D gets is turnovers, short Fields and possibly scores for us. 

[oraphus]

6 minutes ago, HoggLife said:

We had a bad draft? Our whole Secondary is top 5 in the NFL now. With a Top 5 DL. WR core is also at least Top 10 with Top 5 potential. RBs Top 12ish. Average TE group. O Line is Top 12ish with potential to be higher. QB is a question for sure and LB is question but we play 2 or less LBs at a time what like 80% of the time. Our team is young and now we are in a position where we can see what Howell has. If he hits then we are contenders for a long time. If he doesn't hit then we can trade the farm next year to move up and get a QB. People want everything fixed in one off-season. That doesn't happen. This team is getting built the right way. In almost 40 years of being a fan of this team I'm excited again for the first time in a long time. We are 1 stud LB away from being a very special D. And we have enough weapons on offense to win games. Especially if this D gets is turnovers, short Fields and possibly scores for us. 

I am going to hold off on my draft eval .. although this FO hasn't exactly lit it up the last few years. 

These guys haven't played a down yet so you cant say we have a top 5 secondary... we had an average at best secondary last year.. and top5 is quiet a jump. 

Overall they drafted for need obviously .. i am ok with it. We needed secondary help and needed O-line so they went with what was there. The issue is that Rivera has had 3 years to fix the QB position (the by far most important role in football) and has whiffed repeatedly. I am hoping he doesn't get to whiff again next year and we have a new real coach that know what the hell he is doing. 

[mistertim]

2 hours ago, HoggLife said:

We had a bad draft? Our whole Secondary is top 5 in the NFL now. 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

I don't think there's any way you're totally wrong on Martin. I think he's going to be a good player for us. I don't know how high his ceiling is, to be honest. But I have a pretty good suspicion he won't be bad. 

 

I definitely don't want to see him playing corner, though.

 

Outside corner is his one weak point, I agree.  But it sounds like that's not their plan.  slot-FS-some slot in the big nickle role.   Maybe will cut hair some, too.

 

Just found this from Cooley, I agree with him on this

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/chris-cooley-film-review-commanders-105041982.html?src=rss

The reason I like him at safety is he is fast and has really great hips in transition. He has really great range when he is moving across the field. His red-line to red-line speed is really good.”

“Through the middle of the field, he could be in a straight backpedal, and his turn and pivot to run red-line to red-line is exceptional athletic transition.”

“I think he is a good block shedder. He has a great downhill approach to run-stopping. He makes a ton of TFLs (tackles for a loss) on the other side of the ball.”

“He is a real physical player, fearless.”

“There is something lacking when he is outside in vertical stuff down the field.”

 

 

 

[Jumbo]

I think it's obvious that this year's draft on top of the last four years under the two FOs completes the five year plan where we clearly are favorites to not only win the division but replace Green Bay as a regular challenger for the NFC crown now that Rodger's in the  AFC.

 

[KDawg]

3 hours ago, HoggLife said:

We had a bad draft? Our whole Secondary is top 5 in the NFL now. With a Top 5 DL. WR core is also at least Top 10 with Top 5 potential. RBs Top 12ish. Average TE group. O Line is Top 12ish with potential to be higher. QB is a question for sure and LB is question but we play 2 or less LBs at a time what like 80% of the time. Our team is young and now we are in a position where we can see what Howell has. If he hits then we are contenders for a long time. If he doesn't hit then we can trade the farm next year to move up and get a QB. People want everything fixed in one off-season. That doesn't happen. This team is getting built the right way. In almost 40 years of being a fan of this team I'm excited again for the first time in a long time. We are 1 stud LB away from being a very special D. And we have enough weapons on offense to win games. Especially if this D gets is turnovers, short Fields and possibly scores for us. 

These kinds of posts are so paradoxal (if that’s not a word I just made it up).

 

Our secondary is top 5 because we added two rookies to a unit that got lit up like a sieve when Curl was out?

 

I agree that it has a ton of potential.

 

But over in some other threads people are bringing up how Howell doesn’t deserve to be ranked anything other than bottom of the league at QB because he hasn’t taken a ton of NFL snaps. And he has NFL film.

 

So do we judge young players on potential? Or do we only judge them on what they’ve put on tape? 
 

For the record, I like to look at upside. Howell belongs in the prove it tier but not necessarily 32nd. Our secondary belong in the conversation for potential, but saying we are top 5 is a major leap.

[The Consigliere]

On 5/2/2023 at 3:27 PM, Warhead36 said:

What Richardson has going for him is his coach, Shane Steichen, comes from Philly and helped develop Hurts. Now Hurts was a MUCH better passer in college but he had to work on it in the NFL as well. Richardson is a similar type player.

 

The big thing is, in Philly they had a great OL and over time got him receivers like Brown and Smith. We'll see if Indy can replicate that. Their WRs are ass and their OL severely declined last year.

Meh, Pittman is one of the better young WR's in the league. Not a huge Pierce guy but he's interesting, not a big fan of the rest of the room. Jonathan Taylor is a top 5 back when healty with #1 overall upside. The OL did trip and fall over into a ditch last year for sure.

 

As for Richardson, they've seen with guys like Hurts and Fields that guys can be productive while figuring it out, so Richardson's dynamism as an athlete may be a winning card, we'll see. I absolutely think he was worth the risk pending cost. But at this point the Ron era's been pretty ridiculous. Defensive draftee after defensive draftee where he rolled out a vast collection of bust's and past it QB's year after year after year. I like Howell, but not so much that I wouldn't have gone after Richardson or Levi (though I like Levi less, his value in late round 1 was pretty high considering arm talent and generalized potential). 

 

We'll see though, Richardson definitely has a very low floor, if he busts, he busts 100%. He isn't gonna bust Ryan Tannehill style, if he busts, it will be much more of the Jake Locker kind of implosion to nothingness sort of bust, which actually carries value since it allows you to tank for the replacement sooner. 

[The Consigliere]

8 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am quirky in many ways about the draft, among them, I have extra man crushing towards players I liked early in the process and then also late in the process.  So I guess i am a primacy, recency triggered guy. 

 

i think with Quan part of it was his uniform was so hard to read -- I hate Illinois uniforms in that their numbers blend in too much with the color of the jersey, not enough contrast.  It's hard enough to read the uniform to find his number let alone do that and also follow Quan who was all over the field.  So I had to stop and pause so much to find him that it took me a lot of work.  So even though it wasn't by design -- I ended up spending more time watching him than any player as to the secondary than any other player at that spot. 

 

Speaking of interesting anaylists -- Greg Cosell is one of my favorites in part because he's was the media film draft guy early before it became so rampant.  He described him well for me whch is he's just a step behind Brian Branch, but a similar player, and a really good player. 

 

I think the comparison is apt.  Like Branch he's not a big dude but is a borderline elite tackler.   He's a good coverage guy in the slot.  IMO he has better range to play FS than Branch did.  And he can play outside corner albiet its not his strength, Branch not so much suited to outside corner.    He's a borderline elite athlete whereas Branch isn't.  So in some ways Quan > Branch.

 

Branch IMO is an even better tackler than Martin albiet both are great. And I like Branch's play recognition skills a half peg more. 

 

You are a PFF guy.  Martin has elite scores in both run grades and tackling grades.  PFF though oddly has him labeled as a corner but Branch as a safety.  As a pure corner, especially outside corner, Martin IMO is just OK, not great.  But as a player at FS, slot, in the box -- I think he's potentially a great player.   But will see.  I've been wrong before.  And i'll be wrong again.

PFF can be pretty weird, I'm not fully PFF at all, though I get it could seem like it, but PFF, at the end of the day, are creating a lot of their analytics by collecting tape grinding evaluations play by play by play, which I appreciate more than generalized sorts of things, but more than anything I'm a player profiler guy, for RB/WR/TE, everything else is speculative. I've somewhat given up on QB, until this S2 thing, but still sorta have, and I admit no skill at evaluating any other positions at all beyond knowing what I like, and what I don't when I look at other peoples evals and look at a little bit of clips (not tape) but even then it aint much. 

 

Anyway, I trust you more on Martin than me, I still have a generalized sense that the draft was a pretty stupid haul considering the objectives, and the lack of moving the needle in the most important areas if we're handing off the team to Howell (If we do that, I'd want to be more secure in the OL than I am), but if the OL holds up, it doesnt really matter, because I think as we both agree, either Howell pays off, or he doesn't, and if he does, then it is a transformative potential change w/his rookie deal, and if it doesn't, then we just have to reboot and nothing we did would have changed it anyway beyond making sure we have an accurate, clean eval. 

 

The only potential for a wasted season for me is simply if Howell gets hurt, a la Lance, and we're no wiser in terms of a sense of his ability, or if the lack quality support in the offense compromises the eval. 

 

But w/regards to Quan, ive rarely swerved as dramatically as I have in a week on a guy after a draft as I have on him. I've gone from feeling like throwing up Friday evening last week, to wondering if we snuck a steal by the rest of the league based on nothing but trusting you and related sources. You better be right lol!!!

 

[RabidFan]

45 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

We'll see though, Richardson definitely has a very low floor, if he busts, he busts 100%. He isn't gonna bust Ryan Tannehill style, if he busts, it will be much more of the Jake Locker kind of implosion to nothingness sort of bust, which actually carries value since it allows you to tank for the replacement sooner. 

Locker, how about another Ryan....Leaf

[HoggLife]

4 hours ago, KDawg said:

These kinds of posts are so paradoxal (if that’s not a word I just made it up).

 

Our secondary is top 5 because we added two rookies to a unit that got lit up like a sieve when Curl was out?

 

I agree that it has a ton of potential.

 

But over in some other threads people are bringing up how Howell doesn’t deserve to be ranked anything other than bottom of the league at QB because he hasn’t taken a ton of NFL snaps. And he has NFL film.

 

So do we judge young players on potential? Or do we only judge them on what they’ve put on tape? 
 

For the record, I like to look at upside. Howell belongs in the prove it tier but not necessarily 32nd. Our secondary belong in the conversation for potential, but saying we are top 5 is a major leap.

4 hours ago, KDawg said:

These kinds of posts are so paradoxal (if that’s not a word I just made it up).

 

Our secondary is top 5 because we added two rookies to a unit that got lit up like a sieve when Curl was out?

 

I agree that it has a ton of potential.

 

But over in some other threads people are bringing up how Howell doesn’t deserve to be ranked anything other than bottom of the league at QB because he hasn’t taken a ton of NFL snaps. And he has NFL film.

 

So do we judge young players on potential? Or do we only judge them on what they’ve put on tape? 
 

For the record, I like to look at upside. Howell belongs in the prove it tier but not necessarily 32nd. Our secondary belong in the conversation for potential, but saying we are top 5 is a major leap.

We all judge players or teams differently. I see Fuller being a player that has great experience and Leadership and a Super Bowl Champion which I also give extra points for. In my eyes he is above average. St. Juste I feel has been a little up and down but more ups then down and I see him at worst as a solid #2. Forbes I think will surprise most especially all the haters here and will be in talks for Defensive rookie of the year. And safely with Curl, Forrest, Reeves, Butler, Martin is very deep and extremely talented. Then throw in Dantzler and Danny Johnson and our CBs are pretty deep. Depth also adds to value of any group. Our secondary can get a few injuries and really not be a problem. How we judge players are never going to be the same. But how I personally judge a QB that was taken in the 5th round will be compared to a CB that was taken in the 1st round and has the record for Pick 6's in all college football history and has proven to be a ball hawk will be judge different yes. Crazy above was said we were middle of the pack Secondary. Now using the first 2 rounds of the draft why should I not think that we can take a major jump in that department. Also I think that the secondary will get a huge boost as well if Young plays to his potential. We have 2 DE that will be playing their butts off and I see big sack numbers coming from this team which will help the secondary too. Maybe saying top 5 was a reach. I could have said top 10 with top 5 potential. But I feel we WILL have a top 5 secondary. 

[KDawg]

12 minutes ago, HoggLife said:

We all judge players or teams differently. I see Fuller being a player that has great experience and Leadership and a Super Bowl Champion which I also give extra points for. In my eyes he is above average. St. Juste I feel has been a little up and down but more ups then down and I see him at worst as a solid #2. Forbes I think will surprise most especially all the haters here and will be in talks for Defensive rookie of the year. And safely with Curl, Forrest, Reeves, Butler, Martin is very deep and extremely talented. Then throw in Dantzler and Danny Johnson and our CBs are pretty deep. Depth also adds to value of any group. Our secondary can get a few injuries and really not be a problem. How we judge players are never going to be the same. But how I personally judge a QB that was taken in the 5th round will be compared to a CB that was taken in the 1st round and has the record for Pick 6's in all college football history and has proven to be a ball hawk will be judge different yes. Crazy above was said we were middle of the pack Secondary. Now using the first 2 rounds of the draft why should I not think that we can take a major jump in that department. Also I think that the secondary will get a huge boost as well if Young plays to his potential. We have 2 DE that will be playing their butts off and I see big sack numbers coming from this team which will help the secondary too. Maybe saying top 5 was a reach. I could have said top 10 with top 5 potential. But I feel we WILL have a top 5 secondary. 

You’re allowed to feel how you feel. But consistency is a thing. 
 

Players from round 1 bust and players from round 7 play like a first round player every year.

 

On paper our secondary should be much improved. Whether or not it is depends on two rookies and health.

 

We’ll see. Long way to go. I think Forbes especially has absolute great potential. But it’s just potential until it happens.

[Skinsinparadise]

On 5/6/2023 at 7:31 PM, The Consigliere said:

PFF can be pretty weird, I'm not fully PFF at all, though I get it could seem like it, but PFF, at the end of the day, are creating a lot of their analytics by collecting tape grinding evaluations play by play by play, which I appreciate more than generalized sorts of things, but more than anything I'm a player profiler guy, for RB/WR/TE, everything else is speculative. I've somewhat given up on QB, until this S2 thing, but still sorta have, and I admit no skill at evaluating any other positions at all beyond knowing what I like, and what I don't when I look at other peoples evals and look at a little bit of clips (not tape) but even then it aint much. 

 

 

 

It's easier to watch and evaluate than you might think.  I used to be gun shy to try to do my own evaluations but a dude on the draft thread a long time ago, egged me on to do it, basically saying its just about being patient enough to watch multiple games of the player to get a feel for them.  Also the more you watch players, the easier it is to compare and that helps, too.  I recall for example watching a ton of TEs over the years, then when I watched Kyle Pitts for the first time, he jumped out in such a big way as a dude who moves very differently than all the other TEs I've watched.  I didn't have to read its so, it was so easy to see,

 

Then you get better at it when you read about what traits some anaylists look at when looking at players, including PFF.

 

Not saying I do this anywhere close to the way a scout can of course. I am just a layperson, having fun, and guessing but its fun for me to guess.  And its much more fun to guess for me after watching the player versus looking at the profile alone or what name that draft analyst said. 

 

I post the most analytics on that draft thread so i am into that stuff, too.  I got all these guys chartered on every anayltic I can get my hands on.  But to me that's the gravy -- often it confirms what i see, adds to it, sometimes it doesn't and it makes me rewatch. 

 

I watch the PFF draft shows on youtube.  You see even they aren't slaves to their numbers.  They use them but they bring context to them.  Some of the higher rated scored players on their own metrics aren't their highest rated players.  For example take Chris Rodriguez who we took in the draft -- they rate him as a 90 plus as a runner.  He's be a top 5 RB purely on their metrics.  Better rating than J. Gibbs.  Yet they had Gibbs as the #2 RB in this class and Rodriguez as a mid rounder type.

 

As for QB, a dude volsmet, who is no longer on the board, helped me out a lot.  I was buying the profile at the time on Dwayne Haskins (RIP), the draft media loved him.  I'd see all the completions, etc.  But he goes to me look at the QB in changing context.  Watch what happens under pressure because that would simiulate the NFL more.  Happy feet?  Accuracy is shot?   Takes unneeded sacks?   Can they escape pressure in the pocket, keep their eyes starring at targets versus their eyes are down?  Can they throw well off platform? 

 

How is their accuracy on all three levels? Can they make the tough 2nd-3rd layer out routes.   Then i added some of what Bruce Arian's book spoke about the subject which is their field vision and decision making -- if a QB makes a lot of bad decisions -- he suggests its often because they don't process the defense fast enough and have good field vision.  Part of the reason why I ripped the idea of acquiring Rosen and then later Darnold was I watched a lot of their games, both college games and from the pros, and I thought it was plain as day you can see they both sucked as to decision making.  So many bad decisionss -- that I was convinced they don't see the field well enough and process quick enough.  They both have arm talent but that's not enough.  in college, they could escape some of those errant WTF thows but in the pros, you pay for them.

 

Back to Haskins.  He threw so many first level -- shallow crossers, mesh routes - that it spiked his completiion numbers.  When he threw ouiside of that comfort zone, he was meh.  I recall Louis Reddick kept showing outlier throws where Haskins would make a nice 2nd level out route throw for example.  And if you just trusted that, you'd think he was a gem.  But i know what outlier throws he was referencing.  And i could recall many other bad throws in similar situations.  He was awful under pressure, too.  So I was negative on him after watching him under that lense.  For a short window after the Giants game his rookie year, I gave him a break and thought maybe he could figure it out. But he never did,

 

I wasn't in love with Howell before that draft.  But I did like him.  My concern was his height (vision?) combined with what happened to his game under pressure.  At North Carolina, he used his running skills to bail him out of some of those situations.  But could he in the pros?  But there was one thing I liked about him the best in that class and would say so on that thread.  He makes the most wicked tough throws among that QB group.  Those 2nd-3rd level out route throws, he made them regularly.  He also threw a really pretty deep ball, a good amount of air under the ball.   He hit WRs in stride,   So i do have some optimism about him this season, will see.

 

No one of course has figured out the perfect way to evaluate QBs, no scout, GM, etc.   so lol, i am certainly no QB guru by a long shot.  Just saying its not that difficult to give it a shot to have some fun with it.  For me I think its easier to see if a QB doesn't have it then it is than whether they do have it.

Edited May 8, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[DWinzit]

41 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

It's easier to watch and evaluate than you might think.  I used to be gun shy to try to do my own evaluations but a dude on the draft thread a long time ago, egged me on to do it, basically saying its just about being patient enough to watch multiple games of the player to get a feel for them.  Also the more you watch players, the easier it is to compare and that helps, too.  I recall for example watching a ton of TEs over the years, then when I watched Kyle Pitts for the first time, he jumped out in such a big way as a dude who moves very differently than all the other TEs I've watched.  I didn't have to read its so, it was so easy to see,

 

Then you get better at it when you read about what traits some anaylists look at when looking at players, including PFF.

 

Not saying I do this anywhere close to the way a scout can of course. I am just a layperson, having fun, and guessing but its fun for me to guess.  And its much more fun to guess for me after watching the player versus looking at the profile alone or what name that draft analyst said. 

 

I post the most analytics on that draft thread so i am into that stuff, too.  I got all these guys chartered on every anayltic I can get my hands on.  But to me that's the gravy -- often it confirms what i see, adds to it, sometimes it doesn't and it makes me rewatch. 

 

I watch the PFF draft shows on youtube.  You see even they aren't slaves to their numbers.  They use them but they bring context to them.  Some of the higher rated scored players on their own metrics aren't their highest rated players.  For example take Chris Rodriguez who we took in the draft -- they rate him as a 90 plus as a runner.  He's be a top 5 RB purely on their metrics.  Better rating than J. Gibbs.  Yet they had Gibbs as the #2 RB in this class and Rodriguez as a mid rounder type.

 

As for QB, a dude volsmet, who is no longer on the board, helped me out a lot.  I was buying the profile at the time on Dwayne Haskins (RIP), the draft media loved him.  I'd see all the completions, etc.  But he goes to me look at the QB in changing context.  Watch what happens under pressure because that would simiulate the NFL more.  Happy feet?  Accuracy is shot?   Takes unneeded sacks?   Can they escape pressure in the pocket, keep their eyes starring at targets versus their eyes are down?  Can they throw well off platfiorm? 

 

How it their accuracy on all three levels? Can they make the tough 2nd-3rd layer out routes.   Then i added some of what Bruce Arian's book spoke about the subject which is their field vision and decision making -- if a QB makes a lot of bad decisions -- he suggests its often because they don't process the defense fast enough and have good field vision.  Part of the reason why I ripped the idea of acquiring Rosen and then later Darnold was I watched a lot of their games, both college games and from the pros, and I thought it was plain as day you can see they both sucked as to decision making.  So many bad decisionss -- that I was convinced they don't see the field well enough and process quick enough.  They both have arm talent but that's not enough.  in college, they could escape some of those errant WTF thows but in the pros, you pay for them.

 

Back to Haskins.  He threw so many first level -- shallow crossers, mesh routes - that it spiked his completiion numbers.  When he threw ouiside of that comfort zone, he as meh.  I recall Louis Reddick kept showing outlier throws where Haskins would make a nice 2nd level out route throw for example.  And if you just trusted that, you'd think he was a gem.  But i know what outlier throws he was referencing.  And i could recall many other bad throws in similar situations.  He was awful under pressure, too.  So I was negative on him after watching him under that lense.  For a short window after the Giants game his rookie year, I gave him a break and thought maybe he could figure it out. But he never did,

 

I wasn't in love with Howell before that draft.  But I did like him.  My concern was his height (vision?) combined with what happened to his game under pressure.  At North Carolina, he used his running skills to bail him out of some of those situations.  But could he in the pros?  But there was one thing I liked about him the best in that class and would say so on that thread.  He makes the most wicked tough throws among that QB group.  Those 2nd-3rd level out route throws, he made them regularly.  He also threw a really pretty deep ball, a good amount of air under the ball.   He hit WRs in stride,   So i do have some optimism about him this season, will see.

 

No one of course has figured out the perfect way to evaluate QBs, no scout, GM, etc.   so lol, i am certainly no QB guru by a long shot.  Just saying its not that difficult to give it a shot to have some fun with it.  For me I think its esier to see if a QB doesn't have it then it is that they do have it.

Nice post SIP. Always love your takes on players. I have always taken special note of your breakdowns on TE's and QB's. I guess volsmet gets a tiny bit of the QB write ups  Dude was always good at certain points. Open eyes with numerous unknowns that he'd bring into light.

 

For reasons like you pointed out, I have grown to not like or trust Louis Riddick. When I heard him touting Stroud this year, I knew I didn't want him. I never really cared that much for him but Riddick pushing an Ohio State QB....no thanks, got me once on that and I did not like Haskins.  What do I know though, I would have taken Sweat at 16 regardless of the late medical question that caused his dip.

 

I was thrilled when they drafted Howell. I was expecting his name to be announced in the 4th round so to get him in the 5th, wow what a steal. He followed a great year up with a bunch of studs with a good season carrying his team while running around due to a crap OL.  Figure if they can calm his feet and learn to read the field he will have a nice career, 

[Skinsinparadise]

4 hours ago, DWinzit said:

Nice post SIP. Always love your takes on players. I have always taken special note of your breakdowns on TE's and QB's. I guess volsmet gets a tiny bit of the QB write ups  Dude was always good at certain points. Open eyes with numerous unknowns that he'd bring into light.

 

 

lol, volsmet, changed my Qb approach.  And I'll give him credit for being so persistent with me that draft season, pushing me to watch Haskins (RIP) with a different lense until I finally did.  About 2 weeks or so before that draft, I spent a weekend morning, watching 5 games of Haskins back to back.  And afterwards, put a long post about why i didn't want them to draft him.  Volsmet and i actively rooted on the draft thread on draft day for Haskins to go before our pick so Dan wouldn't be able to draft him.

 

I became later. an over the top a critic of Darnold, the off season Sheehan among others were pushing him.  I watched a lot of him, college and the pros, but I didn't really see any improvement from Darnold from college to the pros, so many bad decisions in a game.  I think that's an underrated quality sometimes with QBs --decision making.  Darnold to me seemed like a train wreck when I watched him on that front.  Can Kyle Shanahan coach him up on that this year?  I am guessing not.   I think his issues are field vision and processing and I doubt that can be improved much. But if anyone could do it, I am guessing Kyle might be the guy.  

 

4 hours ago, DWinzit said:

 

 

For reasons like you pointed out, I have grown to not like or trust Louis Riddick. When I heard him touting Stroud this year, I knew I didn't want him. I never really cared that much for him but Riddick pushing an Ohio State QB....no thanks, got me once on that and I did not like Haskins.  What do I know though, I would have taken Sweat at 16 regardless of the late medical question that caused his dip.

 

 

Riddick seemed to be way over the top trying to sell him.   

 

4 hours ago, DWinzit said:

 

 

I was thrilled when they drafted Howell. I was expecting his name to be announced in the 4th round so to get him in the 5th, wow what a steal. He followed a great year up with a bunch of studs with a good season carrying his team while running around due to a crap OL.  Figure if they can calm his feet and learn to read the field he will have a nice career, 

 

The kicker about guys like Haskins and Rosen is I am turned off by anyone whose work ethic is questioned.

 

Part of me having some belief that Howell could be the guy is this...

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/washington-commanders/post/_/id/42915/why-washington-is-all-in-on-sam-howell-as-its-quarterback

The Commanders were also well aware of what the Tar Heel coaches thought of Howell. They considered Howell obsessed with the game, saying he’d study fronts and protections on Sunday mornings -- the day after a game -- which allowed the coaches to have more advanced conversations with him when they met.

Edited May 7, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Jumbo]

19 hours ago, KDawg said:

These kinds of posts are so paradoxal (if that’s not a word I just made it up).

 

Paradoxical 🤓

 

 

 

(Side note to @Skinsinparadise-- I rarely make such comments in a thread, but I miss some aspects of volsmet too. An intelligent, interesting, poster in both main forums. Without getting into details (per rules) he chose to "quit" ES but I expect he's doing fine opining somewhere in the ether.)

 

 

.

[The Consigliere]

21 hours ago, RabidFan said:

Locker, how about another Ryan....Leaf

 

No. Unless I'm mistaken, there's no stink on Richardson's character. There was a lot of covered up stories about him (Leaf) being a pos back in 1998 that only leaked out after he officially busted. Even the equipment guy and locker clean up crew or whatever supposedly hated Leaf. Guy had severe mental makeup issues and addiction problems on top. Talent too, lots of talent, but even his rookie preseason he was losing his mind over veteran pranks "Knock it off" was the classic bit caught on tape if memory serves.

Richardson makes it or not based on his ability to do the actual job effectively when it comes to throwing (could be mental make up issues for all I know, just haven't heard of any). 

Edited May 7, 2023 by The Consigliere

[RabidFan]

Fair point Sir.  You're right there were several red flags for Leaf but he and Manning were still top 2 just like Luck and RG3.  The Chargers and us got the short stick there thought that one season with RG3 was fabulous.  Though giving himself a brand logo in year one then telling Shanny he would only be a pocket passer along with his dad griping lost the luster soon.

 

Howell seems humble and hungry even if his size isn't prototypical for the role.  Let's hope we get a win with him....hell several.  lol

[KDawg]

8 hours ago, Jumbo said:

 

Paradoxical 🤓

 

 

 

(Side note to @Skinsinparadise-- I rarely make such comments in a thread, but I miss some aspects of volsmet too. An intelligent, interesting, poster in both main forums. Without getting into details (per rules) he chose to "quit" ES but I expect he's doing fine opining somewhere in the ether.)

 

 

.

Hmmm.

 

IC.

 

See what I did there? I left those two letters out of the word?

 

I’m sorry. I couldn’t resist.