2023 NFL Draft Watch and Post Thread - The Hangover Special

[MartinC]

20 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

LG is an issue and so is RT still. I know Wylie is penciled in there, but he's not good at it. At least he never has been. He handled Riddeck and Sweat in the superbowl playing on a slick field and being allowed to drag them to the ground.

 

I don't think our Oline is that much improved over last year as of right now.

There will be a bunch of vet cuts in the next few weeks and then late cuts in camp. We didn’t pick up Leno till after this point. Still opportunities to add a player or two who could end up starting, and LG might be one of those spots. Need another linebacker as well IMO.

[PeterMP]

8 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

Also, I'm going to break with the ES draft community and say that I love the Forbes pick. Sure. He's light. But, today's NFL is less physical You can't make the same kind of contact with receivers that you used to be able to and his weight isn't going to be as big a disability in this era. Also, we run a zone heavy scheme where he likely won't be jamming a lot. Forbes also seems to be a willing and effective tackler in run support and in the screen game. 

 

I don't think Forbes' issues are going to be in the run game, the traditional screen game, or even jamming (because as you say there is so little of it in the NFL today).

 

He's got 3 issues:

 

1.  WR screens (does he just get blown up by a blocker that can go and block somebody else)

2.  "legal" rub plays (is even a little bit of contact enough to knock him off his coverage)

3.  "legal" offensive pass interference/push offs at the top of routes and while the ball is in the air. (can he physically compete with somebody like AJ Brown when the ball is in the air?).

 

For the first two, if you are pro the pick the answer is that you can't block/pick what you can't hit and he'll use his agility/athleticism to avoid the contact.

 

And in college he's shown he holds up okay at the top of routes with the ball in the air.  But average NFL WR is much more physical with the ball in the air than the average college WR.  The difference between the general strength and physicality of the average WR vs. college makes it hard to judge.

 

 

Edited May 1, 2023 by PeterMP

[Koolblue13]

2 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

I don't think Forbes' issues are going to be in the run game, the traditional screen game, or even jamming (because as you say there is so little of it in the NFL today).

 

He's got 3 issues:

 

1.  WR screens (does he just get blown up a blocker that can go and block somebody else)

2.  "legal" rub plays (is even a little bit of contact enough to knock him off his coverage)

3.  "legal" offensive pass interference/push offs at the top of routes and while the ball is in the air. (can he physically compete with somebody like AJ Brown when the ball is in the air?).

 

For the first two, if you are pro the pick the answer is that you can't block/pick what you can't hit and he'll use his agility/athleticism to avoid the contact.

 

And in college he's shown he holds up okay at the top of routes with the ball in the air.  But average NFL WR is much more physical with the ball in the air than the average college WR.  The difference between the general strength and physicality of the average WR vs. college makes it hard to judge.

 

 

Using AJ Brown as a flaw is absurd. There's barely anyone in the league who can cover that dude 1 on 1. He's a monster. That's like covering DJ Metcalf 1 on 1. 

 

Smith, Lamb, Toney, Gallup, Tolbert, etc he's perfect for. 

[MartinC]

11 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

3.  "legal" offensive pass interference/push offs at the top of routes and while the ball is in the air. (can he physically compete with somebody like AJ Brown when the ball is in the air?).

This is where I have real concerns as well. He will have to okay against AJ Brown twice a year, Lamb as well. Physical receivers could well be a problem at the top of the route.

 

7 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Using AJ Brown as a flaw is absurd. There's barely anyone in the league who can cover that dude 1 on 1. He's a monster. That's like covering DJ Metcalf 1 on 1. 

 

Smith, Lamb, Toney, Gallup, Tolbert, etc he's perfect for. 

Lamb is 6’ 2” and over 200. He’s not a small receiver.

[KDawg]

Lots to unpack.

 

We’re running low on cap room. So cuts need to be made to pick up veteran cuts.

 

Roullier is our best center, but if we want to fill the line with a vet RT or LG he will need to be cut and we will need to lean on Stromberg to hopefully develop into what he could quickly. 
 

Fuller is another to keep an eye on unless we go bargain bin shopping to fill the remainder of our holes. 
 

For the sake of staying on topic, I think Daniels is going to have to emerge in rookie camp/OTAs as a potential starter. And I just don’t think he’s to that point yet. 
 

Our line is absolutely better than last year. That was an absolutely horrendous line and we have 100% improved it. But going from ~30th best line to ~23rd is still a bottom third OL. And I think that’s about where we are give or take.

[Chump Bailey]

11 hours ago, RWJ said:

With all due respect, CB, I don't think he has the speed or quickness.  I think the Brycen kid from Stanford has a better camp. I also think we overpaid for Tinsley but let's see how it plays out in camp.  

 

He's more of a possession type of WR IIRC. But, yeah, the Stanford kid is interesting too. 

[Koolblue13]

9 minutes ago, MartinC said:

This is where I have real concerns as well. He will have to okay against AJ Brown twice a year, Lamb as well. Physical receivers could well be a problem at the top of the route.

 

Lamb is 6’ 2” and over 200. He’s not a small receiver.

Forbes is light, but he's 6'1" and really long. Lamb and Forbes are pretty similar actually. It's a great match up.

6 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Lots to unpack.

 

We’re running low on cap room. So cuts need to be made to pick up veteran cuts.

 

Roullier is our best center, but if we want to fill the line with a vet RT or LG he will need to be cut and we will need to lean on Stromberg to hopefully develop into what he could quickly. 
 

Fuller is another to keep an eye on unless we go bargain bin shopping to fill the remainder of our holes. 
 

For the sake of staying on topic, I think Daniels is going to have to emerge in rookie camp/OTAs as a potential starter. And I just don’t think he’s to that point yet. 
 

Our line is absolutely better than last year. That was an absolutely horrendous line and we have 100% improved it. But going from ~30th best line to ~23rd is still a bottom third OL. And I think that’s about where we are give or take.

I'm right there with all of that. I really don't want to lose Roullier, which I've certainly been vocal about, but RT is definitely still a need IMO.

 

I'd rather restructure Chase and lose Thomas.

 

No way do I want to lose Fuller and leave our starting CBs as a skinny rookie and a head injury away from retirement, then DJ and Corn.

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Forbes is light, but he's 6'1" and really long. Lamb and Forbes are pretty similar actually. It's a great match up.

I'm right there with all of that. I really don't want to lose Roullier, which I've certainly been vocal about, but RT is definitely still a need IMO.

 

I'd rather restructure Chase and lose Thomas.

 

No way do I want to lose Fuller and leave our starting CBs as a skinny rookie and a head injury away from retirement, then DJ and Corn.

 

I don't want to lose Roullier, Fuller or Thomas.

 

Tight end is in a real bad spot without Thomas. But Thomas can't stay healthy. Same with Roullier, though I think we are better there at center than we are at tight end.

 

Corner is a tough one. But I wonder what Fuller's role will be. Ideally, St Juste and Forbes start. But St Juste can't stay healthy. So Fuller is a starter? Or depth? I'm fine with either, but it's costly.

 

The draft was never a spot we were going to fill all holes (well, with this team it might have been). So losing some of the guys we like/hurt is going to be necessary to fill the bigger holes we have. 

 

Daniels emerging would be such a huge boon. But I have my thoughts about that this early on, so I don't see it.

 

Going to be interesting. 

[mhd24]

Interesting...

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2023/05/01/nfl-draft-2023-raiders-texans-cj-stroud-peter-king-fmia/

 

"Cards GM Monti Ossenfort called Ziegler. Hushed discussion, presumably exchanging potential offers for the pick. Then Ziegler and McDaniels huddled. Having the 12^th and 33^rd overall picks, to go along with the Raiders’ 38^th choice, would be tempting. “We could get [Oklahoma tackle Anton] Harrison at 12,” McDaniels said. The Raiders loved Harrison—not as much as Johnson, but enough maybe to lose the fourth non-QB they love in order to pick up the 33^rd pick. They mulled"

 

If the Raiders trade down with the Cards, they would have taken Harrison at 12.

14 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Lots to unpack.

 

We’re running low on cap room. So cuts need to be made to pick up veteran cuts.

 

Roullier is our best center, but if we want to fill the line with a vet RT or LG he will need to be cut and we will need to lean on Stromberg to hopefully develop into what he could quickly. 
 

Fuller is another to keep an eye on unless we go bargain bin shopping to fill the remainder of our holes. 
 

For the sake of staying on topic, I think Daniels is going to have to emerge in rookie camp/OTAs as a potential starter. And I just don’t think he’s to that point yet. 
 

Our line is absolutely better than last year. That was an absolutely horrendous line and we have 100% improved it. But going from ~30th best line to ~23rd is still a bottom third OL. And I think that’s about where we are give or take.

 

 

Do you have any hopes for Chris Paul, or is he just a JAG?

[Number 44]

11 hours ago, RWJ said:

He was McKee's main target. 

No he wasn't.  Higgins was.

[Chump Bailey]

Apologize if posted already, but here are PFF's stock exchange draft grades for the Commanders. 

 

Connor B- (the same grade I would give - thought Forbes was more of a 2nd round guy but not a bad player) 

 

Trevor B

 

Daniels, both really liked. I liked him too but the more I watched, his lack of strength was apparent. He needs to hit the weight room and refrigerator. 

[PeterMP]

31 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Using AJ Brown as a flaw is absurd. There's barely anyone in the league who can cover that dude 1 on 1. He's a monster. That's like covering DJ Metcalf 1 on 1. 

 

Smith, Lamb, Toney, Gallup, Tolbert, etc he's perfect for. 

 

I took AJ Brown as the extreme (obviously).  The general point still stands.  Compared to most top flight corners (and even average starting NFL corner), he's light.  Does he lose at the top of routes with the ball in the air more than a top flight (or even an average NFL starting) corner?

 

If he can somehow compete at the top of routes compared to other top flight corners, he'll likely be a real good player.

Edited May 1, 2023 by PeterMP

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

 

Do you have any hopes for Chris Paul, or is he just a JAG?

 

Don't know. He got good press at the end of the year and seemed to play okay versus Dallas. I always have hope for these guys. The team may feel great. But we as fans don't have their perspective so we will always want to try to shore things up a bit more imo.

 

But with a little luck Paul is the real deal and LG is in good shape.

 

I'm worried about both guard spots, though. Cosmi, if he plays there, is very injury prone. We seem to have depth, but I don't feel great about it in conjunction with RT. We have a lot of OL that can play multiple spots but not a lot of extremely good OL. Just baseline decent OL that can play in different places. 

[MartinC]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I don't want to lose Roullier, Fuller or Thomas.

 

Tight end is in a real bad spot without Thomas. But Thomas can't stay healthy. Same with Roullier, though I think we are better there at center than we are at tight end.

 

Corner is a tough one. But I wonder what Fuller's role will be. Ideally, St Juste and Forbes start. But St Juste can't stay healthy. So Fuller is a starter? Or depth? I'm fine with either, but it's costly.

 

The draft was never a spot we were going to fill all holes (well, with this team it might have been). So losing some of the guys we like/hurt is going to be necessary to fill the bigger holes we have. 

 

Daniels emerging would be such a huge boon. But I have my thoughts about that this early on, so I don't see it.

 

Going to be interesting. 

Fuller feels like someone who will be asked to take a pay cut perhaps with some kind of extension. Give him an extra year and maybe spread that $8M over the two years.

 

If he refuses he could be cut. 

 

[Koolblue13]

Jaelyn Duncan would have been a better pick in the 6th, than Daniels. I just can't get into that pick. Dudes never going to play OT in the NFL. He's too small and short armed.

[KDawg]

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

Jaelyn Duncan would have been a better pick in the 6th, than Daniels. I just can't get into that pick. Dudes never going to play OT in the NFL. He's too small and short armed.

33" arms is the same as Cosmi.

 

Duncan also has 33" arms. 

[Koolblue13]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Don't know. He got good press at the end of the year and seemed to play okay versus Dallas. I always have hope for these guys. The team may feel great. But we as fans don't have their perspective so we will always want to try to shore things up a bit more imo.

 

But with a little luck Paul is the real deal and LG is in good shape.

 

I'm worried about both guard spots, though. Cosmi, if he plays there, is very injury prone. We seem to have depth, but I don't feel great about it in conjunction with RT. We have a lot of OL that can play multiple spots but not a lot of extremely good OL. Just baseline decent OL that can play in different places. 

I like Wylie at RG. I had said the best spot for Cosmi is 6th man, until he proves he can stay healthy. Otherwise we're just waiting to interupt the continuity of the line. 

 

I'd assume that when Cosmi gets hurt, Wylie slides in and Lucas comes in at RT.

[DWinzit]

19 minutes ago, KDawg said:

For the sake of staying on topic, I think Daniels is going to have to emerge in rookie camp/OTAs as a potential starter. And I just don’t think he’s to that point yet. 
 

Our line is absolutely better than last year. That was an absolutely horrendous line and we have 100% improved it. But going from ~30th best line to ~23rd is still a bottom third OL. And I think that’s about where we are give or take.

It is sad that it has almost become the norm here that we are almost counting on 3rd day draft picks to be able to start early in their first year.

 

Our roster is still weak in general, your point on OL is the perfect example....or look at our LBers

[Koolblue13]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

33" arms is the same as Cosmi.

 

Duncan also has 33" arms. 

Duncan has almost 34 inch arms, big hands and is 6'6" over 300lbs. Daniels is smaller and Cosmi is already out at RT, which kind of proves that.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, DWinzit said:

It is sad that it has almost become the norm here that we are almost counting on 3rd day draft picks to be able to start early in their first year.

 

Our roster is still weak in general, your point on OL is the perfect example....or look at our LBers

Reflecting... I would have gone Murphy or Campbell at 16. I've been going back and forth but really I would have gone Campbell.

 

After some thinking, I have Campbell and Murphy rated roughly the same as players. Excellent football players who are going to be among the best. My EDGE1 and LB1. But, when you add the need weight Campbell takes a major advantage. It gets close when you factor in value, though. EDGE is a more premium position but also more plentiful in this class. LB is a lesser impact position but not as many high impact guys.

 

I think my final answer is that I would have went Campbell at 16 given the way the board shook out. 

 

And I'm still not convinced Forbes wouldn't have been available at 47, though I do think that is shaky ground to stand on. 

[Skinsinparadise]

36 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Fuller is another to keep an eye on unless we go bargain bin shopping to fill the remainder of our holes. 
 

 

It would bug me if they cut Fuller.

 

If I had to pick one thing that I liked the best about the draft is basically turning a decent secondary -- but not a playmaking one or deep at corner and comically extremely vulnerable whenever Curl was out, to...

 

A. Deep enough at outside corner.  I thought that was needed.  I just can't ride with hoping St. Juste stays healthy.  The spot is too important to leave it to chance like that especially in this division. 

 

B.  Can survive a Curl injury now at least in theory.  Keim talked many times about that he was told that the secondary struggled without Curl in part because they feed off of Curl's ability to move around and serve multiple functions in the secondary but also in turn help disguise coverages.   He was key for that especially in zone coverage.  He would be their key disguise weapon. Without him, it wasn't the same.  We were able to survive over the years injuries to other players on the defense -- but Curl, whenver he was out, it seemed to be a disaster including the critical game that cost them the playoffs where the Browns anemic offense picked them apart. 

 

What happens to this defense without Curl, was a major talking point for some on this board, me included, during the off season.  Apparently, it was a talking point for the FO and coaching staff, too.

 

They supposedly were so hopped up on Quan according to Keim that he was their target in a trade up in the 2nd.  i love the player, he was one of my predraft man crushes, but I'd have hated the move in a trade up.  But they saw him, according to Keim, filling two key roles.  1.  Replacing McCain at nickle.   2.  Being insurance for Kurl and in addition to that they also supposedly might use them both as chess pieces at the same time on the field to disguise even more.

 

As I mentioned, when i watched Quan, among the players i watched for this draft, which were many -- he was literally the hardest one for me to see becasue he was everywhere, outside, inside, safety and lol those Illinois numbers-uniforms are a bear to read.

 

Like you, I wouldn't have gone for Forbes for that first piece in round 1.  But they made that bed.  I like that they added an outside corner.  So the idea to me was good.  To me that was an necessary as the slot-hybrid player.  But some of that for me was I don't trust St. Juste to stay healthy.  it's a tough spot for players to stay healthy and St. Juste is off to a rough start as to durability.  But they likely as we pointed out gotten that outside corner in the third or 4th round in a deep corner draft. 

 

The secondary previously was competent.  I think Curl had a lot to do with it.  PFF gave Fuller a 75 for his coverage last year -- decent.  St. Juste just a 60.  I think he's better than that.  But we were near the bottom of the league in turnovers.  At the start of the season when we had that losing streak, we had some nutty bad numbers during that run.  I think it was like 1 pick in 6 games or something close to being that bad.

 

Didn't love the Forbes pick like you because of his weight and the depth at that spot in this draft.  But I get the method to the madness.  In theory, we got a disruptive D line.  We shouldn't be in turn one of the worst in the league in turnovers from the secondary.   Among his skills, Quan is also a disruptive player and has good hands.  Curl is a great player but he's not a turnover guy.  Forbes clearly majors in turnovers.

Edited May 1, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Chump Bailey]

7 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Jaelyn Duncan would have been a better pick in the 6th, than Daniels. I just can't get into that pick. Dudes never going to play OT in the NFL. He's too small and short armed.

 

I like Daniels's versatility but I'd have to think hard about that one and likely would have done the same, Duncan.

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Duncan has almost 34 inch arms, big hands and is 6'6" over 300lbs. Daniels is smaller and Cosmi is already out at RT, which kind of proves that.

 

Though I see 33 5/8 on nfldraftbuzz.

 

I don't know where some of these places get their info.

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

It would bug me if they cut Fuller.

 

If I had to pick one thing that I liked the best about the draft is basically turning a decent secondary -- but not a playmaking one or deep at corner and comically extremely vulnerable whenever Curl was out, to...

 

A. Deep enough at outside corner.  I thought that was needed.  I just can't ride with hoping St. Juste stays healthy.  The spot is too important to leave it to chance like that especially in this division. 

 

B.  Can survive a Curl injury now at least in theory.  Keim talked many times about that he was told that the secondary struggled without Curl in part because they feed off of Curl's ability to move around and serve multiple functions in the secondary but also in turn help disguise coverages.   He was key for that especially in zone coverage.  He would be their key disguise weapon. Without him, it wasn't the same.  We were able to survive over the years injuries to other players on the defense -- but Curl, whenver he was out, it seemed to be a disaster including the critical game that cost them the playoffs where the Browns amemic offense picked them apart.

 

They supposedly were so hopped up on Quan according to Keim that he was their target in a trade up in the 2nd.  i love the player, he was one of my predraft man crushes, but I'd have hated the move in a trade up.  But they saw him, according to Keim, filling two key roles.  1.  Replacing McCain at nickle.   2.  Being insurance for Kurl and in addition to that they also supposedly might use them both as chess pieces at the same time on the field to disguise.

 

Like you, I wouldn't have gone for Forbes for that first piece.  But they made that bed.  I like that they added an outside corner.  To me that was an necessary as the slot-hybrid player.  But some of that for me was I don't trust St. Juste to stay healthy.  it's a tough spot for players to stay healthy and St. Juste is off to a rough start.  But they likely as we pointed out gotten that guy in the third or 4th round in a deep corner draft. 

 

The secondary previously was competent.  I think Curl had a lot to do with it.  PFF gave Fuller a 75 for his coverage last year -- decent.  St. Juste just a 60.  I think he's better than that.  But we were near the bottom of the league in turnovers.  At the start of the season when we had that losing streak, we had some nutty bad numbers during that run.  I think it was like 1 pick in 6 games or something close to being that bad.

 

Didn't love the Forbes like you because of his weight and the depth at that spot in this draft.  But I get the method to the madness.  In theory, we got a disruptive D line.  We shouldn't be in turn one of the worst in the league in turnovers from the secondary.   Among his skills, Quan is also a disruptive player and has good hands.  Curl is a great player but he's not a turnover guy.

 

Losing any of those guys would bother me.

 

Fuller the most, because he's healthy.

 

I'd cut bait with Thomas/Roullier though, because of the savings and health.

 

I just hope a tight end appears in vet FA. 

[DWinzit]

26 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Reflecting... I would have gone Murphy or Campbell at 16. I've been going back and forth but really I would have gone Campbell.

 

After some thinking, I have Campbell and Murphy rated roughly the same as players. Excellent football players who are going to be among the best. My EDGE1 and LB1. But, when you add the need weight Campbell takes a major advantage. It gets close when you factor in value, though. EDGE is a more premium position but also more plentiful in this class. LB is a lesser impact position but not as many high impact guys.

 

I think my final answer is that I would have went Campbell at 16 given the way the board shook out. 

 

And I'm still not convinced Forbes wouldn't have been available at 47, though I do think that is shaky ground to stand on. 

If I could take any one player in this draft to fit Washington, it would have been Campbell. 

 

I figured I was grading higher than others with him but evidently was wrong. If he ran a little faster I think he would have been in top 5 pick discussions

 

To me the CB class was bonkers. We could have grabbed better ones later. To me there was no stand out OL at the top of the draft but would have hoped for PJJ. Newx really good one that fit Washington was seriously....Berg

Edited May 1, 2023 by DWinzit
RE CBS: Didn't mean better, meant good ones

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

If I could take any one player in this draft to fit Washington, it would have been Campbell. 

 

I figured I was grading higher than others with him but evidently was wrong. If he ran a little faster I think he would have been in top 5 pick discussions

 

To me the CB class was bonkers. We could have grabbed better ones later. To me there was no stand out OL at the top of the draft but would have hoped for PJJ. Newt really goo one that fit Washington was seriously....Berg

 

Paris Johnson, if on the board, would have been my BPA in all circumstances. Need weight was huge, player grade was high. 

 

I guess I shouldn't say all. Bryce Young would have been higher. Gibbs. Bijan. But other than them.

 

Campbell was next. I had him as a top 20 player in the class.