2023 NFL Draft Watch and Post Thread - The Hangover Special

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, NYSkins21 said:

Nice. Tara’s still there. Can’t beat $1 burgers and $5 pigs feet lol!

 

My last memory wasn't hot there.  i was trying to impress who ended up being my future wife.  And we were drinking too much.  We went to the Park Bench and Carringtons -- around Stony Brook.  Both are no longer there I know.  Was drinking beer at both venues.  But finished up with a Whisky Sour at Tara's, along with one of those cheap burgers.

 

And all I'll say after that is it taught me a lesson i never repeated which is don't mix a lot of beer with a mixed drink as a capper. 

Edited May 1, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Jumbo]

 

 

 

 

Mitchell Schwartz

 

 The consensus boards are not team driven, they’re media/independent analysts. Some might get insight from teams, but not all. Without full medical + mental evals all these boards show is physical projecting.

 

By now we kind of all know it’s not that big a piece of the puzzle if there’s a baseline of talent. Work ethic, motivation levels, development, coaching, scheme fit, teammates, mentorship, it all plays as big if not a bigger role than “what can he do on film in college."

 

 

The second paragraph in particular, taken from a tweet recently posted here, covers some key matters I think too few posters give full weight to when making criticism.

 

There's no shortage of legit criticism to make about our drafts, per our record, no matter what coaching staff was involved over the years under Dan.

 

 But choices are made by pros that take the considerations mentioned in that tweet with far more gravity than I think most message board posters give them.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[skinsfan66]

30 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

They are competent drafters -- not exciting, but decent at it.    Some say you need three years to really judge a draft, some players take awhile to develop, some are derailed iniitally by injuries and some start OK but never evolve.  Kiper likes to say if you get 2-3 starters and 1-2 depth players you nail a draft.

 

And by those metrics they've done well. I'll give some credit to @method man on a different topic i mentioned Belichick.  And he goes they drafted pretty bad.  I've heard that before but never bothered to go through their drafts but did so after that -- awful.   We aren't among the best at doing this.  But I've looked at some other team's drafts just randomly as different discussions have come up, and have stumbled on some lemons drafts from plenty of other teams.

 

They do a decent job picking players.  But as you and I agree with, they can use the board much smarter than they do it right now.  And i think they are missing that killer instinct -- both in terms of taking chances and looking ahead. 

 

Looking at this team's drafts.

 

Draft 1. 

 

Chase Young looked really good in seaon 1, season 2 not so much but then got hurt.  I don't blame FOs for injuries unless the player was often injured in college.  For Chase I'll give him this year and decide then.

 

Gibson in the third was a good pick.

 

Charles in the 4th is depth -- depth in the 4th is a winning pick, most 4th rounders are outright busts.  Better to get a starter but depth in the 4th statisitically speaking is a winning pick.

 

Hudson if I recall in the 6th?  Still on the roster -- depth.  Special teams.

 

Curl -- 7th, stud.  their best pick.

 

Smith-Williams -- depth pick.

 

If Chase pans out, this is a good draft.  Not great but good.  Definitely meets Kiper's threshold for a good draft.

 

Draft 2.

 

Jamin Davis -- good player, not great, probably overdrafted.  but success rate in the 2nd half of the first round is about 50-50.   LBs tend to take more time to develop.  Will see what he does this year.

 

Cosmi was good as a rookie, step back last season, stay healthy.  I'll judge this season. At a minimum he's not a bust

 

St, Juste is a great pick in the third -- but stay healthy.

 

D. Brown.  Depth player for Wr.  Supposedly this new staff thinks they can bring more out of him

 

Bates -- solid player -- good 4th rounder.

 

Derrick Forrest -- good 5th round pick.  good season last year.

 

Cheeseman -- nothing exciting but lol he serves a purpose.

 

So far that draft is looking good, again not great but good.

 

Draft 3

 

Jahan Dotson IMO looks like an emerging superstar, will see.  Injuries kept him down.

 

Mathis -- had a good camp but alas got hurt in game 1.

 

Robinson -- got derailed from being shot, played well regardless, I think he will have an even better season this year.  Good pick.

 

Butler - good depth player, special teams stud.

 

Howell -- if they hit on him, it would make a seemingly good draft end up great.  Wildcard.  I am positive about him but will see.  If all he ends up is a backup that would be dissapointing -- but from a pure draft value standpoint a 5th round backup Qb is a hit not a miss.

 

Cole Turner -- had a killer camp and then got hurt.  They are high on him as a player.  Will see this year.

 

Chase Paul -- he might end up their LG this year, at a minimum he's looking to be a backup.  So for a 7th rounder that's looking good.

 

UDFA -- Armani Rogers -- they like him.  Will see.

This draft looks like the other 3. middle of the road at best without any or few super stars or difference makers.  I also cannot see this draft with the 2 corners taken changes anything record or playoff wise. Just a no impact draft is what it appears to be and and I do not think Corner was the weakest spot, I hope I am wrong. A good portion of those players like Charles, would not have made most teams too. last years draft was the best.

Edited May 1, 2023 by skinsfan66

[Rex Tomb]

1 minute ago, skinsfan66 said:

This draft looks like the other 3. middle of the road at best without any or few super stars or difference makers.  I also cannot see this draft with the 2 corners taken changes anything record or playoff wise. Just a no impact draft is what it appears to be and and I do not think Corner was the weakest spot, I hope I am wrong. A good portion of those players like Charles, would not have made most teams too last years draft was the best.

People seem to forget that we were literally pulling guys off the street to come in and play CB for us, like Wildgoose.  And Fuller got straight up picked on several games.  These moves put him in high alert, I would think.  In fact, I won’t be surprised to see both rookies take the #2 and slot corner positions.  I think the move was probably smart to ensure we have quality depth should these guys go down to injury.

[Skinsinparadise]

12 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

This draft looks like the other 3. middle of the road at best without any or few super stars or difference makers.  I also cannot see this draft with the 2 corners taken changes anything record or playoff wise. Just a no impact draft is what it appears to be and and I do not think Corner was the weakest spot, I hope I am wrong. A good portion of those players like Charles, would not have made most teams too. last years draft was the best.

 

I am sort of the keep a medium point with Rivera especially as to is drafting.

 

To me he's a steady B -- B minus at drafting.

 

There are teams that have D drafts, heck we've had plenty of D drafts.

 

Ron seems to go for mostly high floor, high character players.  And he's good at scoping those type of players.

 

As an example i heard Derrius Guice wasn't a player Ron or his FO in Carolina wanted but its someone that Dan wanted according to Chris Russell - Russell said Dan overruled Kyle Smith on that pick.  Doug Williams apparently piled on to back Dan on it.

 

My issue with Ron aside from his need based approach which is restrictive is the emphasis on singles and doubles over home runs. 

 

The Eagles for example are shooting for doing big budget blockbuster movies like the James Bond or Mission Impossible series.  Ron is not shooting that high. His take seems to be get hits not misses with these picks.  It's not a bad approach IMO.  But it limits you. 

 

He will produce a nice movie, not a lemon.  But its nothing that is killer. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited May 1, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[skinsfan66]

4 minutes ago, Rex Tomb said:

People seem to forget that we were literally pulling guys off the street to come in and play CB for us, like Wildgoose.  And Fuller got straight up picked on several games.  These moves put him in high alert, I would think.  In fact, I won’t be surprised to see both rookies take the #2 and slot corner positions.  I think the move was probably smart to ensure we have quality depth should these guys go down to injury.

Just do not think it moves the needle, we will see.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

11 minutes ago, Rex Tomb said:

People seem to forget that we were literally pulling guys off the street to come in and play CB for us, like Wildgoose.  And Fuller got straight up picked on several games.  These moves put him in high alert, I would think.  In fact, I won’t be surprised to see both rookies take the #2 and slot corner positions.  I think the move was probably smart to ensure we have quality depth should these guys go down to injury.

 

Yeah I agree with you.  

 

The #1 thing they likely accomplished in this draft is to take a decent but not hot secondary -- and upgrade it to bring major upside and depth to that spot.

 

While i wouldn't have taken Forbes that high because of the depth at CB in this draft.  I got zero issues with taking an outside corner and a slot-FS-hybrid in this draft.

 

While i do think they can use a LB.  Amping up the secondary was a bigger priority IMO considering how today's NFL works.

Edited May 1, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Bifflog]

22 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

 

 

 

 

Mitchell Schwartz

 

 The consensus boards are not team driven, they’re media/independent analysts. Some might get insight from teams, but not all. Without full medical + mental evals all these boards show is physical projecting.

 

By now we kind of all know it’s not that big a piece of the puzzle if there’s a baseline of talent. Work ethic, motivation levels, development, coaching, scheme fit, teammates, mentorship, it all plays as big if not a bigger role than “what can he do on film in college."

 

 

The second paragraph in particular, taken from a tweet recently posted here, covers some key matters I think too few posters give full weight to when making criticism.

 

There's no shortage of legit criticism to make about our drafts, per our record, no matter what coaching staff was involved over the years under Dan.

 

 But choices are made by pros that take the considerations mentioned in that tweet with far more gravity than I think most message board posters give them.

 

All anyone has to do is look at a handful of these DCOE (Draft Capital Over Expected) charts to notice that there are good and bad teams all over the spectrum...

 

2023, oof on the Chiefs huh?  Down there with us!

 

 

2022, hey look, the blessed Eagles worse on this metric?

 

 

2021

 

Rough one for the 'Boys who everyone loves as drafters...

 

 

 

This is how, it seems to me, most people who don't look at film (of which I belong, I don't know jack) use to evaluate a draft, when it could just as easily be used as a metric to evaluate the draft prognosticators who don't work for teams...

[skinsfan66]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am sort of the keep a medium point with Rivera especially as to is drafting.

 

To me he's a steady B -- B minus at drafting.

 

there are teams that have D drafts, heck we've had plenty of D drafts.

 

Ron seems to go for high floor, high character players.  And he's good at scoping those type of players.

 

As an example i heard Derrius Guice wasn't a player Ron or his FO wanted but its someone that Dan wanted according to Chris Russell - Russell said Dan overruled Kyle Smith on that pick.  Doug Williams apparently piled on to back Dan on it.

 

My issue with Ron aside from his need based approach which is restrictive is the emphasis on singles and doubles over home runs. 

 

The Eagles for example are shooting for doing big budget blockbuster movies like the James Bond or Mission Impossible.  Ron is shooting that high. His take seems to be get hits not misses with these picks.  It's not a bad approach IMO.  But it limits you. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I agree, the team is much more likeable and felt like a descend draft could put the team on the other side of 8and8. From rd. 3 on I think they done a good job and I hope I am wrong about the first pick. Like the second pick as it filled a need with the right player. But over all just not feeling any impact any impact as a whole. I wanna be wrong.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

13 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

Just do not think it moves the needle, we will see.

 

 

Why do you think improving CB play doesn't move the needle? Everyone evaluates our roster differently. Where the needs were, what we had to do to hide certain players, how effective we were against this or that. Our run defense last season was better than our pass defense.

 

BSJ is good, but he's missed large chunks of both his seasons. Fuller is scheme limited and got roasted by some more talented offenses. Eagles in particular targeted him. Bobby McCain gave up a passer rating of 111.9 when targeted. William Jackson (who we got rid of) was at 121.9.

The addition of Forbes and Martin should absolutely move the needle.

[Skinsinparadise]

Going through their drafts the biggest wildcard are injuries.

 

Chase looks like a bust purely from the prism of prodiuction in the last 1.5 seasons or so.  He looked great as a rookie.  Can he get back to that?  Will see.

 

Jahan Dotson look like just a guy judging by production alone.   Mainly because of bad Qb play and missing games.  but do we really see him as just a guy?

 

Cosmi-St. Juste have shown plenty of flashes but can they stay healthy?

 

Mathis and Turner had good camps but were lost for most of the season.

 

It's a theme that has ran through some of their drafts.  Forrest was really good last year but his rookie season he was lost for injuries.  

Edited May 2, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[kingdaddy]

31 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Going through their drafts the biggest wildcard are injuries.

 

Chase looks like a bust purely from the prism of prodiuction in the last 1.5 seasons or so.  He looked great as a rookie.  Can he get back to that?  Will see.

 

Jahan Dotson look like just a guy judging by production alone.   Mainly because of bad Qb play and missing games.  but do we really see him as just a guy?

 

Cosmi-St. Juste have shown plenty of flashes but can they stay healthy?

 

Mathis and Turner had good camps but were lost for most of the season.

 

It's a theme that has ran through some of their drafts.  Forrest was really good last year but his rookie season he was lost for injuries.  

You are spot on imo with your thought here.....the Commanders need to stay healthy to make a run. How do you do that....I don't know, but we do know that Cole Turner has skills, same with Chase Young etc.....BRob got shot and that hurt us. Logan Thomas.....we need these guys to stay healthy so we can establish some rhythm....in contrast, Travis Kelce never misses a game so the Chiefs can build something over and over again with their offense going around him. I'd love to see a solid TE presence in our offense so the others can all be factors. Same with Chase on defense. I know this is every teams plan but it hasn't happened for us in awhile. 

[PeterMP]

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

I think you’re confusing the conversation.

 

You keep using the word value.

 

A word I keep using to describe where this team stinks at the draft.

 

I’m talking about individual player skills and ability. We find good PLAYERS.

 

You have to be able to separate the player from the strategy. 
 

We find good players.

 

We are dog**** at putting together a good plan, maximizing value and improving our roster’s overall ceiling.

 

The point of my initial point was not to argue with you but to give some clarification.  There is some chance that we are talking past one another.

 

But as I've said, essentially anybody would have some success (find some good players) in the draft.  I think that's not a good metric of if they are good at drafting.  Value is a more reasonable metric for determining good.

 

Based on even year after the draft production, they aren't good.  They aren't even average.

[Skinsinparadise]

Rare praise from PFF

 

 

 

[KDawg]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Rare praise from PFF

 

 

 

Guy doesn’t even know who our QB is.

[PeterMP]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Kiper likes to say if you get 2-3 starters and 1-2 depth players you nail a draft.

 

Alone and on its face, that's a ludicrous metric for whether somebody did a good job drafting.

 

By that metric, I could run a team for a decade they could be 4-12 and if a lot of my starters were people that I had drafted I would be good at drafting.  Drafting starters on a bad team is easy and doesn't mean you are good at drafting.

 

 

[DWinzit]

6 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Guy doesn’t even know who our QB is.

I was going to say, I read it like he lacks faith in Howell

[Skinsinparadise]

11 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

 

Alone and on its face, that's a ludicrous metric for whether somebody did a good job drafting.

 

By that metric, I could run a team for a decade they could be 4-12 and if a lot of my starters were people that I had drafted I would be good at drafting.  Drafting starters on a bad team is easy and doesn't mean you are good at drafting.

 

 

Didn’t think I needed to elaborate.   But will do 

 

he implied the starter is a good player. Not a bad starter on a bad team 

 

[Warhead36]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Going through their drafts the biggest wildcard are injuries.

 

Chase looks like a bust purely from the prism of prodiuction in the last 1.5 seasons or so.  He looked great as a rookie.  Can he get back to that?  Will see.

 

Jahan Dotson look like just a guy judging by production alone.   Mainly because of bad Qb play and missing games.  but do we really see him as just a guy?

 

Cosmi-St. Juste have shown plenty of flashes but can they stay healthy?

 

Mathis and Turner had good camps but were lost for most of the season.

 

It's a theme that has ran through some of their drafts.  Forrest was really good last year but his rookie season he was lost for injuries.  

There is no way Dotson looked like "just a guy" last year. The injury was unfortunate but when he was on the field he looked great. 

 

Can't really disagree with the rest of your list, though I do think Cosmi will make a quality RG and St. Juste when healthy looks like a solid starting CB.

 

The problem is we're just not hitting home runs. Young was supposed to be, and looked the part his rookie year, but hasn't been close to that form since. I'm still optimistic on him though.

[88Comrade2000]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

Guy doesn’t even know who our QB is.

It hasn't been determined who's QB 1 on opening day.  If Jacoby is outperforming Sam, he gets the starting nod.  If Sam is outperforming Jacoby, he gets the nod.  

 

 

I think the focus on our Snyder drafts don't really matter.  More likely than not, 2024 will be a new FO and coaching staff.  Only the best of the Snyder era picks/singings will survive the change.  I expect a different roster in year 2 and 3 of the new regime.  So, players we are talking about now might be gone in 1-3 years.

Edited May 2, 2023 by 88Comrade2000

[method man]

@KDawg What was your eval on Carter Warren? Logan Paulsen made a Morgan Moses comp and implied they should have drafted him instead. 
 

You could tell Daniels is the pick he is lowest on. 

[KDawg]

7 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

It hasn't been determined who's QB 1 on opening day.  If Jacoby is outperforming Sam, he gets the starting nod.  If Sam is outperforming Jacoby, he gets the nod.  

 

 

I think the focus on our Snyder drafts don't really matter.  More likely than not, 2024 will be a new FO and coaching staff.  Only the best of the Snyder era picks/singings will survive the change.  I expect a different roster in year 2 and 3 of the new regime.  So, players we are talking about now might be gone in 1-3 years.

 

You love pointing out things that are obvious/making sure controversy continues to spread.

 

And then disappearing when people reply to you.

 

It's almost endearing. 

 

4 hours ago, method man said:

@KDawg What was your eval on Carter Warren? Logan Paulsen made a Morgan Moses comp and implied they should have drafted him instead. 
 

You could tell Daniels is the pick he is lowest on. 

 

Slow, but capable. But when I say slow... he looks slow. Might be able to get him moving quicker in the pros but he looks like his knees hurt when he plays (I don't know if they do, that is 100% just based on watching him)

[Skinsinparadise]

8 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

There is no way Dotson looked like "just a guy" last year. The injury was unfortunate but when he was on the field he looked great. 

 

Can't really disagree with the rest of your list, though I do think Cosmi will make a quality RG and St. Juste when healthy looks like a solid starting CB.

 

The problem is we're just not hitting home runs. Young was supposed to be, and looked the part his rookie year, but hasn't been close to that form since. I'm still optimistic on him though.

 

If you followed that exact same sentence, i said based on production alone.  But there is a reason why said right afterwards "but do we really see him as just a guy?"

 

My point was he wasn't just a guy.  He was one of my favorite players in that draft.  And I have said many times IMO I believe he's a burgeoning superstar.  But if you judge a draft without context which many outfits do -- production wise they wouldn't rate him as a good pick.  But they are likely wrong.   but a player like him right now, gets almost no buzz nationally.  they mentioned Wrs who were a hit last year, he's rarely in any of those lists.

 

My point which i made here recently is you need give or take 2-3 years to judge a pick.  Dotson missed many games and had bad QB play. His stats aren't indicative of how he looked.  Plenty of other players like that.

 

Ron unfortunately has a bunch of players like that.  Dotson injuriy was just this year.  So its not a pattern.  An example, some of Ron's critics slammed the Darrick Forrest pick as a bad one after he missed his rookie year.  but he played well in year 2 and stayed healthy. 

 

But as far as patterns, if St. Juste or Cosmi for example can stay healthy, they likely will be seen as good picks.  If not, not so much.  Chase seems deemed by some in the locaj media and fans as a bust -- IMO we need to give him this season.  It's not like he's never flashed in his short career?  Matthis is not a talked about as a pick because he was out all of last season.  But will see this season.

 

Injuries are a big part why a draft needs 2-3 seasons to judge.  And that cuts both ways.  Ditto players who take time to grow or sometimes its the reverse they flash and then fade.  for example Shanny's 2011 draft initially looked good, plenty of flashes early but over time that draft didn't age well.

Edited May 2, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[PeterMP]

9 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Didn’t think I needed to elaborate.   But will do 

 

he implied the starter is a good player. Not a bad starter on a bad team 

 

 

Well, that's not ludicrous, but I think it is pretty useless. 

 

The difference between a bad team and a good team is so much due to one position (QB) and coaching.  If you swap our coaches and QB for KC, we probably don't win the Super Bowl but we become a contender.

 

Do guys that are starters but meh players become good draft picks then?

 

Even the best teams have positions they are weak at which than affects who is/can be a starter.

 

Dotson could probably start on KC.  But he almost certainly would not start on the Eagles.  Does that make him a good draft pick or a bad draft pick?