The Official 2023 ES Free Agency Thread... available until Free Agency 2024 begins

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

The Athletic.  I'd say the odds that they even get that third round comp pick in 2025 is almost zero.  More likely they get nothing if they lose either one in FA.  No way they'd sit on 90 million or whatever in free cap space.  They are going to spend some of that almost for sure and almost for sure will spend enough to lose their comp pick.  So I don't see the trade off a comp pick.  The trade off more likely is rent either player for another half season versus getting something for them or nothing.

 

 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Est.1974]

11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The Athletic.  I'd say the odds that they even get that third round comp pick in 2025 is almost zero.  More likely they get nothing if they lose either one in FA.  No way they'd sit on 90 million or whatever in free cap space.  They are going to spend some of that almost for sure and almost for sure will spend enough to lose their comp pick.  So I don't see the trade off a comp pick.  The trade off more likely is rent either player for another half season versus getting something for them or nothing.

 

 

Agreed. The comp pick thing ain’t happening. We’ll be spending enough to negate that outcome. 

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Agreed. The comp pick thing ain’t happening. We’ll be spending enough to negate that outcome. 

 

Almost for sure.  Years ago, we never would get comp picks no matter who we'd lose because we'd spend in FA.  In recent years where we basically skipped FA, we started to get some.  But I think zero shot with a new regime and all that cap room they will skip FA.  So the odds are I'd say at least 95% that we got nothing, no comp pick if either player walks.

 

So I don't get the idea if if we don't get such and such over the comp pick, its not worth it when the odds are great that we don't get that comp pick.  Also the comp pick is a bit overstated.  The pick is in the late third, practically the 4th round.  And you have to wait a year to boot.  When you make trades and you skip the compensation a year -- that pick is considered a round worse than if you got it that same off season before the draft. 

 

So in essense the value of that comp pick is close to being a 5th rounder.  It's nothing to get that jazzed about even if we got it.  A new regime is unlikely to skip signing a marquee FA with all that cap room for essentially the value of a 5th round pick.

Edited October 26, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Koolblue13]

I'm not so sure about the no comp pick thing. Look at what the Bears have done. They sat on their roster and moved guys for picks, let FAs go, while they brought in a new coach and waited to see what Fields had, then the year after signed some decent FAs and still have a ton of cap. Eagles let high end guys walk, some they tradeed for one year deals and didn't sign anyone to replace them and then got some comp picks. Dolphins sold off assets and sat out a year and then this year reinvested.

 

It feels like an NFL version of "the process" to me. Let guys go, get assets sink in draft position and lets your cap empty out. When you have a new GM and a new coach that you're going to stand behind for a long time and let them build their team, you can do that. Have a multi year plan and look ahead.

 

We've just never seen it, but it seems to be one way soe of the younger new GMs are into.

 

It's not a tank job either, kind of a refreshing flush and we can do a really really big one. If we let Chase, Sweat, Fuller (who may be the top corner on the market), Curl (who might be a top Safety on the market), Samuels all walk. I think Leno can go this year. That's a lot of high end talent that can be replaced with budget guys on the roster. Bring in players from other teams PS or low end FAs, we'll come away with a few comp picks and a ton of roster space. Have a good draft and bring in PS players who may contribute, it sets us up really really well going into 2025, which could be when a name change and new stadium are announced.

 

The HOG is in for the long run. He's looking for a legacy, not a win now guy. Zero chance they aren't thinking years ahead already.

[Conn]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

I'm not so sure about the no comp pick thing. Look at what the Bears have done. They sat on their roster and moved guys for picks, let FAs go, while they brought in a new coach and waited to see what Fields had, then the year after signed some decent FAs and still have a ton of cap. Eagles let high end guys walk, some they tradeed for one year deals and didn't sign anyone to replace them and then got some comp picks. Dolphins sold off assets and sat out a year and then this year reinvested.

 

It feels like an NFL version of "the process" to me. Let guys go, get assets sink in draft position and lets your cap empty out. When you have a new GM and a new coach that you're going to stand behind for a long time and let them build their team, you can do that. Have a multi year plan and look ahead.

 

We've just never seen it, but it seems to be one way soe of the younger new GMs are into.

 

It's not a tank job either, kind of a refreshing flush and we can do a really really big one. If we let Chase, Sweat, Fuller (who may be the top corner on the market), Curl (who might be a top Safety on the market), Samuels all walk. I think Leno can go this year. That's a lot of high end talent that can be replaced with budget guys on the roster. Bring in players from other teams PS or low end FAs, we'll come away with a few comp picks and a ton of roster space. Have a good draft and bring in PS players who may contribute, it sets us up really really well going into 2025, which could be when a name change and new stadium are announced.

 

The HOG is in for the long run. He's looking for a legacy, not a win now guy. Zero chance they aren't thinking years ahead already.

This is certainly a possibility. The other thing is that you can spend money on guys other teams cut (rather than unrestricted FA’s) and not have it effect the formula. So you can still make some calculated moves on guys other teams cut for salary reasons, while clearing the deck for a year.

 

I don’t know that it’s the most likely option. Either you or SIP could be correct here in what actually ends up playing out. But I just wanted to chime in with another tool the next regime will have that wouldn’t effect the comp pick formula—signing cut players. 

Edited October 26, 2023 by Conn

[philibusters]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The Athletic.  I'd say the odds that they even get that third round comp pick in 2025 is almost zero.  More likely they get nothing if they lose either one in FA.  No way they'd sit on 90 million or whatever in free cap space.  They are going to spend some of that almost for sure and almost for sure will spend enough to lose their comp pick.  So I don't see the trade off a comp pick.  The trade off more likely is rent either player for another half season versus getting something for them or nothing.

 

 

 

I agree with you that we will likely spend to much in free agency to get a third round pick.

 

I just want to point though that we have a lot of expiring contracts so that 90 million is not as much as it sounds.  If say we let Sweat go, but bring back Young, Curl, Fuller, Samuels, and a few other non starters, you could eat significantly into that 90 million depending on how you structure their contracts.

 

If we lose to the Eagles, I do want to sell, including one of Sweat or Young, then maybe Brissett, and Gibson.

[MrJL]

Comp picks seem to be affected by individual contracts as much as anything and wecdo have 17 free agents who should be on teams next year though some are low priority enough they might not be signed till after the comp pick period is done

[DWinzit]

17 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

If we lose to the Eagles, I do want to sell, including one of Sweat or Young, then maybe Brissett, and Gibson.

I can appreciate the idea. Just not sure what we'd get back.

 

I have a hard time seeing RR giving Brissett up, especially with all the hits Howell is taking. Thank goodness he has been so sturdy so far. I think he has definite value right now that we should exploit. 

 

They really should have extended Sweat before the season began.

 

 

[philibusters]

17 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

I can appreciate the idea. Just not sure what we'd get back.

 

I have a hard time seeing RR giving Brissett up, especially with all the hits Howell is taking. Thank goodness he has been so sturdy so far. I think he has definite value right now that we should exploit. 

 

They really should have extended Sweat before the season began.

 

 

 

This is my guess as to value.  Montez Sweat--second round pick.   Brissett--5th round pick.  Gibson--7th round pick, Samuels--6th round pick.  Given that they are all expiring contracts, that is kind of what I would expect, but I could be significantly off.

[skinsfan66]

2 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

This is my guess as to value.  Montez Sweat--second round pick.   Brissett--5th round pick.  Gibson--7th round pick, Samuels--6th round pick.  Given that they are all expiring contracts, that is kind of what I would expect, but I could be significantly off.

Logan Thomas has to be cut after the season. 8mil plus next year again, but dead money 1.75 next year. Fuller 4/5? pick.

[philibusters]

3 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

Logan Thomas has to be cut after the season. 8mil plus next year again, but dead money 1.75 next year. Fuller 4/5? pick.

 

Yeah, that seems reasonably for Fuller, though I don't want trade him because he is playing well.  But he does make sense to trade because he is a bit scheme dependent so its totally up in the air if a new coaching staff would want to resignhim.   In a zone or zone match scheme he is a good player, but in a bump and run system he is probably more of a low level starter

[Koolblue13]

Fuller is playing like one of the better CBs in the league and is still young. He's definitely worth a day two pick for a premier position. 

[MartinC]

Having reflected on this it seems we have some kind of an offer for Sweat. 

 

Its unlikely to be more than a 3rd round pick. If it IS more I would take it if its a 3rd or less I would not take it - but it will need ownership to push Ron to make that call. My logic then is that if we trade Sweat (or Young) for a 3rd or lower that is sending a very clear signal to everyone inside and outside the building that this is now officially considered a lost season, the coaching staff and front office are toast and we are looking to accumulate assets for the next regime.

 

If its a 2nd rounder or something of that value we can spin this as 'just being a good deal for a player we had decided we were not going to extend'.

 

This coaching staff have already maybe lost some of the changing room. A bad loss to the Eagles and then trading one of our better players for chump change would accelerate what could be become an ugly last half of the season as they lose the whole team. Its probably going to come to that anyway but things are delicately balanced right now - if I am Harris I dont want to be the guy who tips it all over in my first year as the owner. 

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

Can’t believe there’s a debate. Take the Sweat offer now. If Ron argues, he’s fired immediately.

 

We HAVE TO be compensated for these guys. Letting them walk for free is literal madness. There’s no upside at all to pushing the decision out except temporarily avoiding awkward conversations. 

[method man]

56 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Fuller is playing like one of the better CBs in the league and is still young. He's definitely worth a day two pick for a premier position. 

Doesn’t matter. He is an older guy who is a rental. No one sees him as a no. 1 corner. He is worth somewhere between a 4th or 6th

[Koolblue13]

17 minutes ago, method man said:

Doesn’t matter. He is an older guy who is a rental. No one sees him as a no. 1 corner. He is worth somewhere between a 4th or 6th

If this was TC or the offseason, I'd agree, but if you're a team with SB aspirations and have a banged up corner, his value sky rockets.

 

I was saying the same thing about Chase in the preseason when a bunch of dolts were swearing we'd be lucky to get a 4rth for Young and we should jump on the offer if we did.

 

The problem is we are a lot more like the Titans FO, than the Eagles and will get fleeced. Big Red could probably get him off us for a conditional 7th.

[MrJL]

32 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

Can’t believe there’s a debate. Take the Sweat offer now. If Ron argues, he’s fired immediately.

 

We HAVE TO be compensated for these guys. Letting them walk for free is literal madness. There’s no upside at all to pushing the decision out except temporarily avoiding awkward conversations. 

If this was true trades would be more common and free agency departures less

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

4 minutes ago, MrJL said:

If this was true trades would be more common and free agency departures less

Your argument is that the rest of the league is dumb so we should be dumb as well? 

[Warhead36]

Trades have actually become quite common in recent years. You have more forward thinking GMs who are willing to unload players for picks to accelerate the rebuild, as well as aggressive GMs who are willing to part with mid to late round picks to secure solid starters for that second half playoff push.

 

The Lions are a great example of this. They trade Hockenson for a couple of picks and then draft La Porta to replace him. Now they have someone who is younger, cheaper, and might actually be better(at the very least they're similar tier players).

 

And on the flip side you have a team like the Eagles that push for veteran players, knowing that their late round picks are gonna be super late and those young guys won't have much opportunity for playing time now that they're in a win now window anyway.

[kingdaddy]

Who is handling our trade calls from other teams? I'd actually rather have Magic Johnson doing this than RR. Is it Wright, Hurney or Mayhew? All of them? Just RR? Does anyone know? 

[Conn]

52 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

Who is handling our trade calls from other teams? I'd actually rather have Magic Johnson doing this than RR. Is it Wright, Hurney or Mayhew? All of them? Just RR? Does anyone know? 

From the draft war room videos it looks like Mayhew works the phones.
 

You would not rather have Magic Johnson handle that, that would be horrible. The owners should not be involved in that in any fashion. 

[Warhead36]

Mayhew is the GM by title but he basically works for Rivera, so there is no way he'd sanction trading current starters for future draft picks when neither of them are likely to have jobs next year.

[Est.1974]

36 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Mayhew is the GM by title but he basically works for Rivera, so there is no way he'd sanction trading current starters for future draft picks when neither of them are likely to have jobs next year.

Mayhew and Rivera will both be doing as they are told now. 

[D’Pablo]

For the record, if we trade players for picks now, it's going to be this same staff selecting players with those picks, right? As I understand it, most GM candidates aren't available until the summer. Of course, this is all subject to to change if Harris opts to go young and upcoming.