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The All Things PLAYOFFS 2022 Thread

kleese

By kleese
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kleese

kleese

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1 hour ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

Heard someone in my office talking earlier today that the NFL is looking at either 4:30 Saturday the 17th, or 8:20 Sunday the 18th, for our game Vs the giantsĀ 


Is your office, the league office? šŸ˜‰

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Califan007 The Constipated

Califan007 The Constipated

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Posted (edited)

Perhaps history is repeating itself in a way...behold the 2015 Kansas City Chiefs:

Ā 

Ā 

The 2015 Chiefs started off 1-5

The 2022 Commanders have started off 1-4

Ā 

Chiefs: won their next 10 straight to make it in the playoffs

Commanders: have won 6 of their last 7

Ā 

Chiefs: living checkdown metric Alex Smith was the starter

Commanders: noddle-armed ball of moxie Taylor Heinicke is the starter

Ā 

Chiefs: in 6 of those 10 games, Smith threw between 125 yards and 191 yards

Commanders: in 3 of his 6 games, Heinicke threw between 138 yards and 191 yards

Ā 

Chiefs: averaged 144 rushing yards per game during that 10-game stretch

Commanders: averaging 144 rushing yards per game during this 7-game stretch

Ā 

Chiefs: 4 of the 5 teams they lost to made the playoffs (Broncos 12-4, Packers 10-6, Bengals 12-4, Vikings 11-5) - their combined winning % is 0.70

Commanders: 4 of the 5 teams they lost to will most likely make the playoffs (Eagles 10-1, Cowboys 8-3, Titans 7-4, Vikings 9-2) - their combined winning % is 0.77

Ā 

Chiefs: After their 4th loss in a row, their defense held all their remaining opponents under 22 points, and twice allowed only a fg

Commanders: After their 4th loss in a row, their defense has held all their remaining opponents under 21 points, and twice kept their opponent to 10 points or less

Ā 

Chiefs: won in the wildcard round 30-0, then lost in the divisional round to the Patriots

Commanders:Ā  ???

Ā 

Ā 

Ā 

Edited by Califan007 The Constipated
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wit33

wit33

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Posted
3 hours ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

Perhaps history is repeating itself in a way...behold the 2015 Kansas City Chiefs:

Ā 

Ā 

The 2015 Chiefs started off 1-5

The 2022 Commanders have started off 1-4

Ā 

Chiefs: won their next 10 straight to make it in the playoffs

Commanders: have won 6 of their last 7

Ā 

Chiefs: living checkdown metric Alex Smith was the starter

Commanders: noddle-armed ball of moxie Taylor Heinicke is the starter

Ā 

Chiefs: in 6 of those 10 games, Smith threw between 125 yards and 191 yards

Commanders: in 3 of his 6 games, Heinicke threw between 138 yards and 191 yards

Ā 

Chiefs: averaged 144 rushing yards per game during that 10-game stretch

Commanders: averaging 144 rushing yards per game during this 7-game stretch

Ā 

Chiefs: 4 of the 5 teams they lost to made the playoffs (Broncos 12-4, Packers 10-6, Bengals 12-4, Vikings 11-5) - their combined winning % is 0.70

Commanders: 4 of the 5 teams they lost to will most likely make the playoffs (Eagles 10-1, Cowboys 8-3, Titans 7-4, Vikings 9-2) - their combined winning % is 0.77

Ā 

Chiefs: After their 4th loss in a row, their defense held all their remaining opponents under 22 points, and twice allowed only a fg

Commanders: After their 4th loss in a row, their defense has held all their remaining opponents under 21 points, and twice kept their opponent to 10 points or less

Ā 

Chiefs: won in the wildcard round 30-0, then lost in the divisional round to the Patriots

Commanders:Ā  ???

Ā 

Ā 

Ā 


Great post!Ā 

Not challenging you or coming at you, just piggybacking on the post.

Ā 

When playing this style of offense the defense should be held to a different standard than others in NFL. For example, if Washington possesses the ball for 33 plus minutes and puts up 20 points and the defense lets up 21, there likely is blame to put on the defense. Statistically, people will say 21 points is great defense, itā€™s the offenses fault, especially if you compare stats to rest of the league. Washington and KC offense is significantly helping the defense from a statistical standpoint by shrinking the game and possessing the ball.Ā 
Ā 

KC will never have a top defense statistically with Mahomes at QB, because of his attacking style , pace, and rate they score. This is true for many QBs and why in some cases itā€™s a lame argument to point aggregate level defensive statistics to point out why a QB is not being supported by a defense.Ā 
Ā 

I love this style for the cheaper competent QB (especially a dual threat guy) and certainly is a great model to enter the top 3rd of the NFL in most seasons.Ā 

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kleese

kleese

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9 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

This game is huge.Ā  Our playoff chances shoot to 87% if we win this game.

Ā 

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-playoff-picture-the-washington-commanders-boost-playoff-chances-to-87-with-a-win-over-new-york-giants

Ā 

image.png.129013c87746923dfffb3352a26b2681.png


I think the chances with win are a little too high and chances with loss are a little too low; however, it certainly stands to reason that if you have back to back games against your chief opponent for a playoff spot that winning the first game on the road would significantly vault your odds. Win Sunday and we move into the drivers seat to potentially CRUISE into the playoffs. Lose, and itā€™s still very possibleā€” but it will be a grind.Ā 

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moboy36

moboy36

Posted
Posted (edited)

Yahoo Sports app is showing the game at 1pm on the 18th. Not sure if that's confirmed.Ā 

Ā 

Nevermind...looks like they don't have any games listed for the 17th, so that can't be right.Ā 

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Cooleyfan1993

Cooleyfan1993

Posted
Posted (edited)
31 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

When do the Saturday games start happening?

The 17th, 3 games (1:00, 4:30, 8:15) and then Saturday the 24th most of that weekends games will occur, then the final weekend, thereā€™s 2 Saturday games with playoff implications (4:30 and 8:15)

Edited by Cooleyfan1993
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Voice_of_Reason

Voice_of_Reason

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Posted
On 12/2/2022 at 9:16 AM, Warhead36 said:

I think the big thing is to at least get a split. If we get swept, yeah we're probably done.

I think they definitely need a split, but I almost think they need a sweep UNLESS Dallas has nothing to play for.Ā Ā 

Ā 

San Fran is going to crush us.Ā  We might get shut out.Ā  That defense is legitimately elite, and they will stop the running game and we don't actually have a passing game, so, we will lose the game.Ā  They've shut out something like 3 or 4 straight opponents after the half.Ā  They will crush us unless we can be balanced.Ā  This run the ball 40 times thing will not work.

Ā 

Cleveland is the big wildcard, and we should know more by the end of the day if Watson can still play, or a his almost 2 year layoff is going to lead to some rust.Ā  Though, they are playing the Texans, so, we might not actually know anything, because the Texans are B-A-D BAD. But if Watson is Watson, that is going to be a TOUGH game.Ā Ā 

Ā 

My hope against hope is Philly and Dallas just keep winning. That will lock Philly in at the #1 spot and Dallas at #5, and render week 18 meaningless for Dallas.Ā  And in theory, we could beat Dallas if they were resting folks.Ā Ā 

Ā 

But I think 10 is a lock.Ā  9 might do it, but there might be multiple 9-win teams.Ā 

Ā 

The easiest path to 10 is sweep the Giants and beat Cleveland.Ā  If they don't sweep the Giants, then they need to split and win either the 49ers game or the Dallas game.Ā  I think the sweep of the Giants might be more likely than either of the other wins, with the caveat, if Dallas has nothing to play for, who knows.

Ā 

FWIW, the Giants obviously have the Eagles for the last game of the season, and they will probably have the #1 seed and division locked up, so they might not play anybody either, so that's a benefit to the Giants.Ā Ā 

Ā 

Right now, it looks like it's the Giants, Seahawks and Commanders for 2 spots.Ā Ā 

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kleese

kleese

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All in all, a fairly favorable result for us math-wise. In some ways you can look at it like we erased that game at Met Life and instead put all the marbles in the game at FedEx.Ā 
Ā 

It guarantees that we will pass the Giants in standings and earn tie breaker with them even if they beat Philly next week. Would not have been the case had we lost. We could possibly drop out of the ā€œif playoffs started todayā€ picture next two weeks but we will jump right back in by beating Giants no matter what else happens around league.Ā 

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Zim489

Zim489

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13 minutes ago, Idaho fan said:

Why? We would be a wildcard team in the AFC as well right now I believe. Ā  Similar positionĀ 

Much better teams over there. Specifically with better QBs. Our out of division schedule right now is far and away the easiest in the leagueĀ 

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Warhead36

Warhead36

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3 minutes ago, Zim489 said:

Much better teams over there. Specifically with better QBs. Our out of division schedule right now is far and away the easiest in the leagueĀ 

There are some really awful teams too.Ā 

Ā 

The strength of the NFC happens to be in our division.

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