The All Things PLAYOFFS 2022 Thread

[Renegade7]

4 hours ago, FLSkinz83 said:

If we somehow beat the Giants twice, we essentially clinch a playoff spot even if we lost the final 3 games.   

 

Love to see the math on this...

[88Comrade2000]

5 hours ago, FLSkinz83 said:

If we somehow beat the Giants twice, we essentially clinch a playoff spot even if we lost the final 3 games.   

I doubt that.

 

We are 4-4 in the conference, 7-5 overall.

 

We sweep the Giants we improve to 6-4/9-5. We lose next 3, we fall to 6-6/9-8.

 

6-6 conference record might not get us in. Depends on head to head.

[Est.1974]

Well at least we are well in the race still. Seems like we do have some decent pieces on the roster after all.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

27 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

I doubt that.

 

We are 4-4 in the conference, 7-5 overall.

 

We sweep the Giants we improve to 6-4/9-5. We lose next 3, we fall to 6-6/9-8.

 

6-6 conference record might not get us in. Depends on head to head.

 

 

He did say "essentially"...If 10-7 gets them into the playoffs then his comment is correct.

[Skinsinparadise]

Jones is running more this season, he's been an odd challenge for this team over the years playing mostly from the pocket but this season Jones has showcased his wheels much more.   They were able to contain Hurts as a running threart, Mariota not so much.  I gather the Giants will at least try to test their ability to stop RPOs. etc.

 

 

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[FLSkinz83]

2 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

I doubt that.

 

We are 4-4 in the conference, 7-5 overall.

 

We sweep the Giants we improve to 6-4/9-5. We lose next 3, we fall to 6-6/9-8.

 

6-6 conference record might not get us in. Depends on head to head.

 

It's pretty simple actually....If we beat the Giants twice, they would have to win their last 3 and we would have to lose our last 3 for them to overtake us.   

 

It would be us and Seattle making it for the final 2 spots.  

 

Who else gets to 9 wins in the NFC?   

 

 

[88Comrade2000]

1 hour ago, Califan007 The Constipated said:

 

 

He did say "essentially"...If 10-7 gets them into the playoffs then his comment is correct.

We go 2-3 , that’s only 9-8. We need to go 3-2 to go 10-7; so even if we sweep Giants, we need to win one more.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

12 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

We go 2-3 , that’s only 9-8. We need to go 3-2 to go 10-7; so even if we sweep Giants, we need to win one more.

 

You understand what "essentially" means, right?

[Ball Security]

If we were to go 9-8 after winning the next two, one of these things would need to happen: the Giants would have to win 3 of 4 (MlN, Philly 2, Ind).

Detroit to win 5 of 6.

Arizona to 5 in a row could potentially put us in a 3 way 9 win tie with them and Atl. If we are only tied with Atlanta, we obviously have the tiebreaker.  If Atlanta wins 5 in a row, they’ll likely win the division and Tampa would have to win 4 of 5 to tie us (Cincy, SF, NO, Car, AZ)

[kleese]

The above is correct: if we sweep the Giants we “essentially” clinch. If we sweep the Giants and then lose the next three, I’d say our odds of making it would still be 75%+. Maybe even a tad higher. 9-8 with a Giants sweep and we will get in. 9-8 with a Giants split, then it is probably more like 60/40 in. 
 

People who are saying we “need” to get to 10 wins are incorrect. Based on the current standings and removing extreme future outcomes, it is entirely possible the 7 seed in the NFC could get in at 9-8. 
 

Yes, if you are hoping for an stress-free entry in the playoffs, then sweeping the Giants and/or trending to 10 wins is what we need. 

[Warhead36]

Yeah I think 9 gets us in if we sweep the Giants. If we split we might need 10. Seahawks losing to the Raiders and Giants losing to the Lions a couple weeks ago coupled with our win over the Eagles opened up a lot of possibilities.

[moboy36]

44 minutes ago, kleese said:

The above is correct: if we sweep the Giants we “essentially” clinch. If we sweep the Giants and then lose the next three, I’d say our odds of making it would still be 75%+. Maybe even a tad higher. 9-8 with a Giants sweep and we will get in. 9-8 with a Giants split, then it is probably more like 60/40 in. 
 

People who are saying we “need” to get to 10 wins are incorrect. Based on the current standings and removing extreme future outcomes, it is entirely possible the 7 seed in the NFC could get in at 9-8. 
 

Yes, if you are hoping for an stress-free entry in the playoffs, then sweeping the Giants and/or trending to 10 wins is what we need. 

Is this correct, even if the Giants beats the Eagles during our bye week? Then we would have the same record with 4 games left. 

[Peregrine]

7 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Love to see the math on this...

There are only 4 teams left in the hunt for the last 2 wildcard spots, us, the Giants, the Bucs/Falcons, and the Seahawks/49ers.  

 

What is interesting is both the combos, the Bucs/Falcons and Seahawks/49ers are battling for their division, and also play eachother once before the end of the season.  Meaning who we compete for in the wildcard will automatically have 1 more loss than they do right now.

 

1. So if we beat the Giants twice we are minimum of 9-8 which would essentially eliminate the Bucs/Falcons except in one crazy scenario where the Falcons win all of their last 5 games, and the Bucs win 3 of their other 4 games.  If the Falcons just go 4-1 we have the tiebreaker on them.

 

2. We couldnt mathematically eliminate the Giants, but it would be highly improbable for them.  They would be 7-6, and we would have the tiebreaker, meaning they would have to win 3 of their remaining 4 games, including 2 against the Eagles, and a game against the Vikings.  If we beat them twice, it means they would have lost 5 of 6(ignoring Eagles inbetween), not the type of team that typically goes 3-1 against 13+ win teams.  If they dont win 3 of 4, then we are in the playoffs regardless of the Seahawks/49ers.

 

3. But lets say the Giants did go crazy and win 3 of 4, that leads us to the last competitor, the Seahawks/49ers.  If the Seahawks lose their game against the 49ers, they drop to 6-6, and have to win 4 of 5 which is again very unlikely for a .500 team though they do have an easier schedule.  Instead, if they go a more likely 3-2, it depends on who they beat.  They could go from 7-5 in the conference to 5-7. If we ended up at 9-8 we would be 6-6 in the conference.  We win that tiebreaker with 3-2 in common games vs 2-3 for them I believe.  That leaves the 49ers.  If the Seahawks get very hot, beat the 49ers, and win the division at something like 10-7 the 49ers start at 7-5.  They would only need to win 2 of their other games(because they would beat us in a scenario we are 9-8, and thus win head-to-head).  

 

So the math checks out, highly unlikely for us to miss on both other playoff spots, with the biggest danger being the Seahawks get hot and take the division from the 49ers, and the Giants finish 3 of 4 including beating the Eagles and Vikings.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Peregrine

[Renegade7]

@Peregrine felt like I was reading the gold text intro to a Star Wars movie...

 

 

[ClaytoAli]

Answer all of you questions here:

http://www.espn.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

[HigSkin]

 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

2 hours ago, moboy36 said:

Is this correct, even if the Giants beats the Eagles during our bye week? Then we would have the same record with 4 games left. 

 

If the Giants beat the Eagles during our bye week, yes, we would have the same record (8-5). But then they would lose to us the following week lol...so we'd be a game ahead of them AND hold the tiebreaker. They'd have to win 2 more games than us with 3 weeks to go. That's a steep hill for the Giants to climb. But also, both the Commanders and the Giants can make the playoffs, so even if they do it, that doesn't eliminate us. Winning these next two games would create a ****load of breathing room.

[kleese]

While there are all kinds of "what ifs"-- this much is simple: If we sweep the Giants, it would take an insane number of highly improbable results to keep us out of the playoffs. 

Just now, kleese said:

While there are all kinds of "what ifs"-- this much is simple: If we sweep the Giants, it would take an insane number of highly improbable results to keep us out of the playoffs. 

 

One small thing to monitor as well in regards to the schedule. During our BYE week the Giants play Philly. Our game with the Giants at FedEx is currently listed as TBA based on the possibility of it being Sat or Sun as discussed earlier in the thread. If moved to Sat, it creates a short week for Giants whereas it won't matter much to us coming out of the BYE; also if it moves to Sat that then gives us a full week before our game the NEXT Saturday-- the 49ers will already be coming in with extra rest as they play on Thursday prior to our game. So while I am personally hoping our game with the Giants is moved to SNF; there is probably a small advantage for us to play it on Sat. 

[Redskins 2021]

At 9 and 8 will we get in? We may need ten. Detroit has a very favorable schudule next 6 game. Also better become big Nyj fans.

 

Seatte plays

Lar twice, Sf, Car, Kc, and Nyj

Nyg plays 

Us twice, Phl twice and Indy

Det plays

Jacksonville,Minn,Nyj,Car,Chi, and GB

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited November 28, 2022 by Redskins 2021

[Ball Security]

27 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

At 9 and 8 will we get in? We may need ten. Detroit has a very favorable  schudule next 6 game. Also better become big Nyj fans.

 

Seattle plays Minn,Buffalo,Detroit,Jacksonville, Nyj, and Miami.

Nyg plays 

Us twice, Phl twice and Indy

Det plays

Jacksonville,Minn,Nyj,Car,Chi, and GB

 

 

 

 

If the 9-8 is with two Giant wins, then yeah, I like our chances.  
 

They’d have to beat the Eagles twice to get ahead of us.

 

Let’s say the Lions do get to nine wins.  That’s a very tall order, especially if Fields is back.  I have trouble seeing them not losing two games before that one.  And you’ll have a bunch of guys playing for jobs in GB.  I don’t see it, but let’s say they do.

 

Will the losers of the NFCS and NFCW get to nine wins?  Tampa has NO, SF, Cin, Ari, Car, Atl.  Are there four wins there?  
Atlanta: Pitt, NO, Bal, Ari, and TB.  
 

If Atlanta runs the table and wins their division, then that would mean TB would have to beat both Cin and SF to have 10 wins. 
 

If TB loses the division and gets nine wins and the Lions have nine wins, then we lose out on that tiebreaker because we have the worse conference record.  That may be the only way we don’t get in with two Giants wins.

 

Edit: your remaining Sea schedule doesn’t look correct.

Edited November 28, 2022 by Ball Security

[Ball Security]

What we need is for Carolina to play spoiler and beat Sea, Det, and TB.

[Warhead36]

The Lions are hot but are they good enough to get to 9-8? They look like a fiesty team that finishes around 7-10 to me.

[SoCalSkins]

12 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Jones is running more this season, he's been an odd challenge for this team over the years playing mostly from the pocket but this season Jones has showcased his wheels much more.   They were able to contain Hurts as a running threart, Mariota not so much.  I gather the Giants will at least try to test their ability to stop RPOs. etc.

 

 

 

 

Del Rio to Jamin Davis this Sunday on stopping Jones:

 

 

 

[method man]

46 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

The Lions are hot but are they good enough to get to 9-8? They look like a fiesty team that finishes around 7-10 to me.

They have gotten healthy on offense and have their high powered offense back. Their D is a sieve however.

[kleese]

In regards to the Lions, they are lingering, but it would be a real stretch to think we only get to 9 wins and they finish 5-1 or 6-0. Might as well root against them, but their loss on Thanksgiving likely ended the realistic hopes.