Fans Expectations Vs. Media Expectations For The Upcoming 2022 Season

[samy316]

Since we're less than a week away from TC, we're getting to that period before the season begins where fans expectations and optimism are sky high.  This morning, Kevin Sheehan had a segment where he went over what Vegas and the media expect from the Commanders this upcoming season.  Vegas has the over/under for wins at 7.5, with some betting firms varying between 7.5 and 8.5.  What surprised me was what Vegas had as an over/under for passing yards for Wentz this season.  Vegas has it at 3550, which is extremely low for a 17 game season.  To put it in perspective, that would be 26th in the NFL, with players such as Daniel Jones, Tua, Baker, Hurts and Davis Mills having higher over/under in passing yards.  Clearly Vegas thinks that Wentz will get hurt, and not play all 17 games, because that would be an absolute disaster to have such a low number of passing yards in a 17 game season if he's healthy.

 

The media doesn't think much of this team.  Lots of sports media personalities and NFL experts have this team as the 3rd best team in the NFC East, and obviously out of the playoff picture in 2022.  We don't need to get into how they view the Wentz trade, because we already have a thread on Wentz, but it's clear to say that we're an after thought in the NFC in the eyes of the media and Vegas after that trade.

 

Where does this leave the fan base?  Are fans as down on this team as the media is, or do fans see this upcoming season as a breakout for Ron Rivera and crew?  Will this team beat the odds, and become a playoff team?  Can they win the NFC East?  Can they win playoff games this year?

[88Comrade2000]

Whenever there has been high expectations; this team has always failed to meet them.

 

Fans beat their chests, whine about the disrespect and then by mid season; their hopes are dashed.

 

If Wentz plays all season; he should get us to at least 9 wins. Whether that leads to a playoff spot; we’ll just have to see. Wentz should do well enough this year to earn a return in 23.  He does well in 23; then he will get that long term deal and a $40-50 million per year deal.

[Warhead36]

With the schedule the way it is, we should definitely win more than 7 games. I mean we won 7 against a brutal schedule with a freaking XFL backup QB. I can't imagine the offense being worse and its an offense league now.

[NewCliche21]

26 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Fans beat their chests, whine about the disrespect and then by mid season; their hopes are dashed.

 

This should be our hashtag instead of #TakeCommand

 

It's absolutely dead on.

 

My predictions are irrelevant. I think we'll do better than 0-17 and won't win the Super Bowl.  The latter being all that matters.

[FootballZombie]

29 minutes ago, samy316 said:

Clearly Vegas thinks that Wentz will get hurt, and not play all 17 games, because that would be an absolute disaster to have such a low number of passing yards in a 17 game season if he's healthy.

 

I don't see it that way.

Its more like an affirmation that they think he will continue to play at his current level rather than some prediction of injury.

3550 would be 13 yards off his 2021 total, and Wentz played all 17 last year.

 

Vegas thinks we get more of the same Wentz. Falls in line with what I think we get from him too. I'm not biting on the idea that he comes anywhere near absolutely smashing his career high in yardage on a new team, in a fully-new system without a former coach to hold his hand, like some others have predicted. I think he is on a train to 3.6 or 3.7 city.

 

If Vegas thinks Wentz performs at a rate close to his own consistency, and figures we will be in a offense similar to last years Colts or our own, that is pretty much where you would mark an over/under line. Just enough to entice, just enough to question. Feels spot on to me.

 

35 minutes ago, samy316 said:

Where does this leave the fan base?  Are fans as down on this team as the media is, or do fans see this upcoming season as a breakout for Ron Rivera and crew?  Will this team beat the odds, and become a playoff team?  Can they win the NFC East?  Can they win playoff games this year?

 

Like every year I think the general mindset of the fanbase will always be a tad higher than the vegas line. Its almost mandatory of being a fan lol. 

I'd think most of us think we can secure 8 or 9 wins.  I'm at 9.

 

I think we are a fringe playoff team depending on tie-breakers. I think Dallas and Philly are better.

[Reddskins1]

I have a good feeling about this team based on the HC and talent it has on both sides of the ball,and I don't get all the Wentz hate the eagles gave up on him but consider the eagles gave up on there Superbowl winning HC in Doug Pederson which tells me it's not all Wentz there is a Mgmt problem there and Don't get started on the Colts FRT Office cause the Irsay's ran by there alcoholic owner is very questionable so if Wentz plays to his talent level which having stability at the HC position will allow him to LookOut NFL cause the Commanders are Loaded with Talent...

[The Rook]

Over/under at 7.5 sounds right to me.  I have questions/concerns about every unit on offense and defense.  🤔

 

I am not a big proponent of the "We did this last year, so we are going to be better than that this year because ..." theory. 

 

Solid on punting though.

I do like the RB and TE rooms, even with the questions.

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

[Redskins 2021]

This has to be a 10 win team this year. Schudule plus adding Wentz needs to needs to add 3 wins to be successful. As long as they win 10 it's a successful year.

[philibusters]

51 minutes ago, The Rook said:

Over/under at 7.5 sounds right to me.  I have questions/concerns about every unit on offense and defense.  🤔

 

I am not a big proponent of the "We did this last year, so we are going to be better than that this year because ..." theory. 

 

Solid on punting though.

I do like the RB and TE rooms, even with the questions.

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

 

 

You really cannot find 7.5 at  -110.     I think Vegas effective has us at about 8 wins.   If you bet the over at 8.5 wins you can get +140, if you can bet the over on 7.5 you are only getting like -130 or -140.   The lines at 8 are the closest to neutral, so I would call the over under effectively 8.

[redskinss]

I honestly have no idea.

As has been reported earlier in this thread, we get our hopes up and then they're dashed. 

Eventually even this ****bag of a franchise should find a way to put a run together and I wouldn't be surprised if it started this year.

The pieces are all there and rarely does anyone see it coming when a traditionally horrible franchise breaks out.

I'd be no more surprised by 13 wins this year than I would by 4.

That's where I'm at as a fan now, I truly have no real expectations because I never seem to be right anyway. 

[JSSkinz]

Go look at the 2021 preseason odds, they had the Bengals at 6.5 wins and Eagles at 6 wins.  All we heard last year was that the Eagles were going to be last in the division and one of the worst teams in the NFL.

 

The media just regurgitates Vegas odds and Vegas is good at picking game by game winners based on the spread but there will be a few teams that beat the odds every year and nobody ever knows who its going to be, not even Vegas.

[Darth Tater]

Pretty simple, we either win 10 or more games else I'd expect it'll be at least until we move on from Rivera when we even sniff being relevant again.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

10 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Whenever there has been high expectations; this team has always failed to meet them.

 

Fans beat their chests, whine about the disrespect and then by mid season; their hopes are dashed.

 

Perfect second post that fits our situation a little too well. I want to argue against it saying "this time is different", but we've had some years like that in the past.

 

2016 was supposed to be a year of growth and improvement off of a surprise 9-7 playoff appearance with a quality young QB. Nope. Defense fell apart and we could barely run the ball so burning clock when we wanted to was difficult.

 

I do think this year is "actually different" though. Not in terms of oh we're contenders now, but more so that we should be an actual solid team.

[skinsfan93]

I think part of the reason for 7.5 over/under is that our division should be better. Dallas is still Dallas, Philly made some big moves this offseason and the Giants can’t be as bad as last year. We do have an easier schedule which helps but our bye week is really late which doesn’t help. 
 

The key factor to our win total and whether we make the playoffs is the defense in my opinion. Chase needs to rebound, Sweat needs to progress, and Payne can’t be a distraction. We have questions at linebacker and no depth. God forbid if Holcomb gets hurt. Jackson and Fuller need to be solid along with McCain and Curl (who is turning into my favorite defensive player). We don’t have anyone after the line that really scares any offense. Lastly some of the youngsters need to grow up pretty quick.  If our defense is top ten, then I think we easily pass 7.5 wins as our offense should be just fine. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

A ton of talk about Wentz and what he will or won’t do, but the story of the 2022 season will be the defense.

 

They’ve done very little to improve this unit on paper.  I’m shocked that we are rolling into camp with primarily try-hards for the entire LB corps.  It’s hard for me to say with any confidence that this team is destined be over .500, as a result.

[TheShredder]

On 7/22/2022 at 7:19 AM, JSSkinz said:

The media just regurgitates Vegas odds and Vegas is good at picking game by game winners based on the spread but there will be a few teams that beat the odds every year and nobody ever knows who its going to be, not even Vegas.

I think Vegas makes the most betting line errors before the season starts. Book makers have a lot of losers to start the year before they catch up, then make up those opening week mistakes.

Media outlets vary with prognosticating and fall back on the betting line to validate or inflate the storyline. Some media is just pure BS, like ESPN.

I'd definitely take WSH Over 7.5 that's low by at least a game or more. They could easily screw it up by losing to start the season 0-4 or blow it up starting 4-0

[88Comrade2000]

On 7/21/2022 at 10:26 PM, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

A ton of talk about Wentz and what he will or won’t do, but the story of the 2022 season will be the defense.

 

They’ve done very little to improve this unit on paper.  I’m shocked that we are rolling into camp with primarily try-hards for the entire LB corps.  It’s hard for me to say with any confidence that this team is destined be over .500, as a result.

If Wentz can throw the ball, offense should be better than anything we’ve seen since Cousins. I agree with you, the season rides on our defense. If the defense sucks; we could see 34-31 type shootouts , with us in the losing side.

[Thinking Skins]

2 hours ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

If Wentz can throw the ball, offense should be better than anything we’ve seen since Cousins. I agree with you, the season rides on our defense. If the defense sucks; we could see 34-31 type shootouts , with us in the losing side.

Different topic but I wonder if there's any or a high correlation between offensive production and ticket sales. I ask this because we know that the league is all about scoring and passing offenses, but we've lagged behind in an old school mentality minus a no l blip here and there. Even when wet didn't want to, we couldn't help but run the ball because our QB couldn't hit the broad side of a barn (did I get it right?), Remember Sanchez. And at that same time our ticket sales and fan hype has plummetted. Owner and controversies aside, I wonder if that's a factor as well. 

[Skinsinparadise]

7 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

Different topic but I wonder if there's any or a high correlation between offensive production and ticket sales. I ask this because we know that the league is all about scoring and passing offenses, but we've lagged behind in an old school mentality minus a no l blip here and there. Even when wet didn't want to, we couldn't help but run the ball because our QB couldn't hit the broad side of a barn (did I get it right?), Remember Sanchez. And at that same time our ticket sales and fan hype has plummetted. Owner and controversies aside, I wonder if that's a factor as well. 

 

lol I know you of all people will hate me saying this.  I've spent a lot of time, too much trying to keep my kids Commanders/Redskins fans.  And it's been much easier to do when the team was good and can score points.  I took them for example to the NO game in 2017 that went to overtime where Kirk and Brees duked it out in a shoot out.  Yeah we lost but the game was neck and neck and fun.

 

Conversely, I took them to the last game Alex won which was an ugly game in Tampa where we won, which was cool. but it was boring as heck.  Tampa dominated the game mostly.  Alex is a hero for what he ovecame and I'll grant that he's a cooler personality than Kirk and easier to root for.  But the offense was lethargic.  The attendance was down that year and has been in the bottom half of the league every year after that.  I am not putting that on Alex.  Alex was the best of the bad lot of QBs we've had post Kirk.  The fact that we are dead last in QBR post Kirk is telling.  The fact that the last time we were relevant attendance wise was with the offense run by Kirk is also telling.

 

Kirk has his issues don't get me wrong.  But we clearly didn't have the last laugh with him leaving.  The offense hasn't been good ever since.  Wentz ironically strikes me narrative wise as Kirk the sequel -- similar narrative -- mid-western religious dude who doesn't connect to everyone in the locker room -- has been criticized for been too roller coaster as for his play and not clutch enough.  Still IMO he's a professional QB who can move the ball.  the last dude we had like that yeah sorry is Kirk. i know you hate him and some other people hate him too in part for not wanting to be here at a discount.  What a bum for not embracing this lovely franchise?    Fortunately, Wentz couldn't say no to coming here -- so he's stuck.  And i do think he helps this team win some games and ultimately bring some fans to the seats. 

 

 

Edited July 23, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Thinking Skins]

I feel kinda bad because my wife doesn't watch football so the only football that's discussed in my house is Commanders / Skins ball. So my sons pick it up and they're not old enough yet to know what good football is yet. 

 

I know I've been all about a mediocre QB being good enough to take us to the playoffs, but it'd be a lot easier to get them to root for us with a superstar QB or a high powered offense that we know can make highlight plays and get good ratings on Madden. 

 

And I just think that goes in line with the attendence numbers and money generated. Even or sack guys in Orakpo and Kerrigan weren't making game changing plays to seal games, especially division games late in the season to seal a playoff spot. 

[hail2skins]

For the zillionth time though, comparing attendance numbers before and after the time Lafemina and Wright respectively got here is a fool's errand. The drop in attendance has had more to do with tickets no longer being as cheaply available on the secondary market than anything, and the team now reporting turnstile attendance now instead of counting tickets sold to brokers.

[Skinsinparadise]

They inflated ticket sales no doubt.  I've gone to give or take 2 games a year for about 20 years in row.  The decline of attendance is real.  While it was inflated when the team was ranked top 10, it was not bad like its been in recent years.  Night and day.   Years ago, it was mediocre not great even though some of the stats indicated great.  But it was not awful -- now its legitimately awful.  I do think the 2018 through today stats of their rankings plummeting has some real meaning to it.  I don't recall the 2015-2017 run being equally bad. 

 

it's taken a real dive IMO judging at least from the games I've gone too.  In the 2012-2017 range give or take I recall for example opposing fans having a larger presence but nothing like recent times.  Now I have to pick games (and its not easy to guess which ones anymore) where I don't expect a road fan takeover.  I didn't have that feeling in the same way years back that I do in recent years.

 

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

I feel kinda bad because my wife doesn't watch football so the only football that's discussed in my house is Commanders / Skins ball. So my sons pick it up and they're not old enough yet to know what good football is yet. 

 

I know I've been all about a mediocre QB being good enough to take us to the playoffs, but it'd be a lot easier to get them to root for us with a superstar QB or a high powered offense that we know can make highlight plays and get good ratings on Madden. 

 

And I just think that goes in line with the attendence numbers and money generated. Even or sack guys in Orakpo and Kerrigan weren't making game changing plays to seal games, especially division games late in the season to seal a playoff spot. 

 

Judging from kids and not just my own -- star power is key.  It doesn't have to be the Qb but it certainly helps.   In Dan's tenure the only star QB we've had was RG3 and for only one season -- lol, that year it was easy to get my kids into it. 

 

If we had an Odell Beckham type in his prime.  Aaron Darnold, etc, it would help.  Part of my lure to Chase Young was he has the potential to be that kind of player -- hopefully he bounces back. 

Edited July 24, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

Semi off topic, semi on topic...

 

I have noticed with all things as I age that it's that things that you have high expectations for that create the most dismay, sadness and frustration about. Marvel shows, movies, Washington Football, etc.

 

So... to answer my expectations for this team? I have none. We have some good pieces. We have some question marks. I am excited to see how it pans out.