2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[KDawg]

I’d love Van Ness at 16.

 

I’ve basically come to the point where there are maybe 2 OL I’d take at 16, two more I’d take in a small trade back.

 

There are RBs, TEs, Edges, CBs, a S I’d take at 16. But ultimately I’ll kinda know what I’m thinking tomorrow night.

[Skinsinparadise]

Reading Standig's takes and he's good at knowing league wide draft takes, he's won the competition several times for having the most accurate mocks -- that's another add to the pile that Dawand isn't going in the first round.

 

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I’d love Van Ness at 16.

 

I’ve basically come to the point where there are maybe 2 OL I’d take at 16, two more I’d take in a small trade back.

 

There are RBs, TEs, Edges, CBs, a S I’d take at 16. But ultimately I’ll kinda know what I’m thinking tomorrow night.

 

Me, too.   I get the impression from Keim, a pass rusher is a dark horse pick but much more possible in a trade down versus at 16 -- he mentioned again Myles Murphy again last night. I forgot to write that one up. 

 

i get the impression Murphy might be their guy more than Van Ness if they took a pass rusher in the first but I gather they like both.  And by some indications, Murphy might fall tomorrow.  

Edited April 26, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Est.1974]

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Me, too.   I get the impression from Keim, a pass rusher is a dark horse pick but much more possible in a trade down versus at 16 -- he mentioned again Myles Murphy again last night. I forgot to write that one up. 

 

i get the impression Murphy might be their guy more than Van Ness if they took a pass rusher in the first but I gather they like both.  And by some indications, Murphy might fall tomorrow.  

Yep, first 2 picks last year we’re most definitely taken with contract situations in mind to some degree. Neither Terry nor Daron were certain to sign deals. Edge is this year equivalent really. 

Edited April 26, 2023 by Est.1974

[Skinsinparadise]

30 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Yep, first 2 picks last year we’re most definitely taken with contract situations in mind to some degree. Neither Terry nor Daron were certain to sign deals. Edge is this year equivalent really. 

 

Myles Murphy, Van Ness, Nolan Smith IMO would all be good picks.  I get the impression that Murphy might be their favorite among those three.  Some have pushed Van Ness name at Keim and he hasn't pushed back so assume he's under consideration.  I've not heard Nolan Smith's name from Keim.  Though as Keim likes to say, he doesn't know everything of course as to their thinking.

 

I am guessing the top 2 tackles who might be available at 16 would be Wright and Harrison.  I like all three of those pass rushers better than those 2 tackles.  But slim pickings at tackle after those two.  Bergeron I like in the late first.  I like Dawand a lot but he feels like at best a wildcard now with the character stuff.    So if they are determind to get a tackle, its the one spot in the draft where they feel a bit boxed in to do something earlier versus later.

 

Your point at times is go interior O line.  And they might have to do that and wait until the 2nd perhaps.  I don't love the interior class but there are likely more pickings in the 2nd-3rd on that front than tackle.  The issue is I gather they want to do both interior and tackle.

 

At 16, I'd take any of those three pass rushers.  I'd be OK with Wright at 16 but have some character concerns.  I rewatched Broderick Jones last night and have come around on him, I've bounced back and forth on him for months -- doubt he's there at 16 though.  It's a little early for Anton Harrison, but I could go for it.  

 

I like Branch but I agree with their thoughts (according to Keim) that they can get a hybrid later on.  And it sounds like they see Branch as more FS than hybrid-big nickle.   But if they took Branch at 16, I'd be good with it.

 

I'd be good with Banks but i think its a little early for him. So I feel about him the same as i do about Harrison.

 

I'd be good with either top two RBs but I get the impression listening to Keim, that's not happening.  I love both RBs but I do go with the consensus of Bijan over Gibbs.  Feels like you can get Gibbs later in the first. 

 

I'd be good with Mayer or Kincaid but i also get the impression that its not happening but maybe Kincaid is on the table for them in a trade down.  I get the vibe that they want speed-stretch the field TEs so the traditional Y-TEs who aren't so fast -- I get the vibe is not what they are looking for.  I like Darnell but feels like he could be had in the 2nd and don't know about his supposed injury concern.

 

i wouldn't like Forbes that early but I get the vibe that it might be the one out of the blue pick that they make at 16.  Forbes to me in the early 2nd is good.

 

I don't really have any pound the table prospects for 16.  There is no scenario where I wouldn't want to trade down.  Even though I'd like one of those pass rushers -- I also like all three, i am not stuck on one of them and I gather at least one will fall and be there in a trade back.

 

If they stick at 16, my prediction is its exactly who Keim took last night -- Darnell Wright.  The next ones:  Banks, Harrison.

 

If they trade down a little.  My prediction is Harrison or Banks.

 

If they trade down to the bottom of the first -- almost anything goes.  Could be one of the pass rushers if they drop that far, Kincaid, Forbes, DJ Turner.  Harrison if he is still there.

 

I don't get the vibe that they'd take Avila or Torrence in the late first -- or if they did, they've hid that well from Keim, he hasn't mentioned the idea once.  Bram in particular loves pushing a guard at Keim in the first and Keim typically pushes back.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

12 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

California safety Daniel Scott met with the Commanders

https://commanderswire.usatoday.com/2023/04/25/2023-nfl-draft-washington-commanders-california-daniel-scott/

 

 

Just caught this.  Thanks.

 

He's a dude that I did a write up on here weeks back when I was considering players for the board's mock draft.  I almost took him in the 7th round but took Evan Hull instead.

 

High character-leader.  Great athlete.  24 years old so I suspect its part of why he's expected to go late.

 

He came off to me watching him though as more of a pure FS as to his strengths.  Rangy.  Not insane range but good range.  He finds his way to the ball both in the run game and pass game.  Played some slot.  He has the size to play big nickle but IMO is better in a FS role. 

[DWinzit]

How about an all Iowa draft, Van Ness, McDonald, Campbell, Laporta and Moss 😀

 

That is at least the 3rd time Keim has recently brought up Murphy

 

If they are serious about T, they are pretty much going to need to address it by the very beginning of the 2nd....and that may be too late. 

 

I am a bigger fan of Harrison than most for the future LT. Wish he had the ability to play another line spot but I don't see it. That's why B Jones may be more in play along with Darnell. I am beginning to think they will take a T no matter which ones are there...I hate that they put the team in these situations. Much happier if it is best dude on their board whether edge. T or CB....

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

25 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

How about an all Iowa draft, Van Ness, McDonald, Campbell, Laporta and Moss 😀

 

 

 

 

On the board's mock draft for the Jets I ended up taking both Van Ness and Campbell.  Riley Moss and Laporta have been favs for me for awhile.  But it's gotten a bit obnoxious from the draft media about Laporta -- he seems so over the top hip to them these days that it makes him a little unhip to me -- but I am getting over it and I am pushing him again.     

 

As for Riley, some seem to see him as a safety -- and while I get the idea, he has the tools and athleticism to play CB so don't get the whole push to move him out of CB. 

 

McDonald as a pass rusher is wicked.

 

Sticking with Iowa, a dude I've touted that I like as a late round safety. Kaevon Merriweather.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Reading Standig's takes and he's good at knowing league wide draft takes, he's won the competition several times for having the most accurate mocks -- that's another add to the pile that Dawand isn't going in the first round.

 

 

Me, too.   I get the impression from Keim, a pass rusher is a dark horse pick but much more possible in a trade down versus at 16 -- he mentioned again Myles Murphy again last night. I forgot to write that one up. 

 

i get the impression Murphy might be their guy more than Van Ness if they took a pass rusher in the first but I gather they like both.  And by some indications, Murphy might fall tomorrow.  

Murphy is my Edge 1. I can’t believe he’d be there at 16. Would be wild. Though I like Tyree Wilson a lot, too.

[Skinsinparadise]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Murphy is my Edge 1. I can’t believe he’d be there at 16. Would be wild. Though I like Tyree Wilson a lot, too.

 

I recall you saying that before.  I didn't even watch Murphy until recently because he seemed out of reach in early mocks.

 

But of late, he seems to be there much later.  Heck if I recall he was the last pick taken last night in the first round in the ESPN draft where reporters from each team took players.

 

For me, tough for to decide between Van Ness, Murphy, N. Smith.  All three bring something different.  I'd be jazzed for any one of the three.  But I get the impression from Keim, their favorite in that group, is the same as yours -- Murphy.

[Skinsinparadise]

2023 NFL draft buzz: Latest rumors, notes on teams, picks, QBs

Bijan Robinson in the top 10?

Many around the league believe the Texas running back could go as high as No. 8 overall to the Atlanta Falcons, where general manager Terry Fontenot and team owner Arthur Smith have shown a pattern of taking the best player available regardless of position. Tyler Allgeier was a 1,000-yard rusher a season ago, but he's not a game-changer like Robinson.

With the emphasis on running a ball-control offense, Smith could favor using Robinson similarly to how he used Derrick Henry during Smith's time as offensive coordinator in Tennessee, but Robinson provides much more versatility and juice in the passing game. The Falcons still need help off the edge and in the secondary, but don't be surprised if they stick to their best-player-available theory by drafting Robinson. -- Reid

I am hearing a lot about Robinson to the Falcons as well, but I'm watching to see if they try to slide down a couple of spots to get him. For example, if the draft gets to No. 8 and one or more of the top quarterbacks is still available, would Tennessee try to come up from No. 11? Would Houston try to come up from No. 12? Atlanta could pocket an extra pick or two, slide back a couple of spots and still get their guy a little cheaper.

 

If Robinson starts to slide toward the Ravens' spot at No. 22, I'd watch them as a possibility to move up for him. Baltimore is focused on adding playmakers in an attempt to show Lamar Jackson it's serious about bringing him back and building a better offense around him. -- Graziano

One NFL GM told me there's enough love for Alabama running back Jahmyr Gibbs and that some teams could prioritize him above Robinson, largely considered the draft's best back and perhaps the best overall player. The reason? Gibbs offers more of an Alvin Kamara-style of play, with the ability to hit home runs in the pass-catching game. Some teams prefer that change-of-pace playmaker in their backfield vs. the traditional do-it-all back.

Most scouts consider Robinson the superior player to Gibbs (199 pounds), but the gap isn't as big as some think, depending on the team you ask. -- Fowler

 

Which other teams could trade back?

We know Arizona wants to move back from No. 3 to accumulate picks, and some teams believe the Cardinals will eventually get a nice haul. Other teams that could have some interest in trading back include the Philadelphia Eagles (No. 10), Titans (11) and Lions (18). The Eagles have just six picks and wouldn't mind adding more if a move makes sense.

While many are pegging Tennessee as a candidate to grab a quarterback high, some teams believe the Titans could be looking to accumulate picks via a trade back. The roster needs reinforcements at more spots than just quarterback. Deepening the intrigue is what Tennessee does with Ryan Tannehill, who has a $36 million cap hit. -- Fowler

 

....Another team to watch for potential trades is the Washington Commanders. Edge rusher Montez Sweat is heading into his fifth-year option season and has yet to have his contract extended beyond 2023. Fellow edge rusher Chase Young still hasn't had his fifth-year option for 2024 exercised (the Commanders have until next week to decide whether to do it). Some wonder whether the Commanders will want to deal with a situation where, in 2024, Young is playing on his fifth-year option and Sweat on the franchise tag. So at some point, Washington might have to decide between those two players, and trading one of them could be the answer. -- Graziano

 

Paris Johnson Jr. on the rise and other O-lineman buzz

One name mentioned often in calls and texts with team sources this week is the Ohio State left tackle, Johnson. Said one NFC area scout: "He's the only Day 1 left tackle and maybe the only true left tackle of the first round guys." Johnson, who started at right guard before moving to left tackle for the 2022 season, surrendered just two sacks all season -- one against Michigan and another versus Georgia -- and is seen by teams as the most pro-ready tackle, while also having considerable upside given his inexperience at the position. -- Miller

Offensive tackle is a position that could create much movement, especially in the fringe of the top 10 and early teens. First, let's slide Northwestern's Peter Skoronski off this list since many teams I talk to believe he's a guard at the next level... and a good one. "He could be the next Zach Martin," one NFC scout said.

Johnson is considered the cleanest tackle prospect and could be off the board early. If Arizona pulls off the trade down from No. 3, I could see Johnson as a viable option for them.

Georgia's Broderick Jones is an option for the Jets at No. 15 -- he got positive feedback from the team during the pre-draft process. His range seems to be anywhere from No. 11 to late first round.

 

The most talented tackle might be Tennessee's Darnell Wright, who could go as early as Chicago at No. 9. Some teams have maturity concerns about Wright, but he believes -- and has tried to prove -- that he's well past issues from early in his UT tenure. Most teams have a hard time believing he'll slip based on the immense talent. He could surprise people.

Oklahoma's Anton Harrison is a bit of a wild card -- teams see a first-round talent but are unsure of his draft range. -- Fowler

An arm-length concern has some teams projecting Skoronski as a guard and not a tackle. He still could go high, because as Jeremy mentions, his talent indicates he could be a long-term starter at some position on the offensive line, but it's possible some of the tackles will elevate above him due to those concerns.

As of now, if I had to guess which OT would go first, I'd pick Johnson. The concern on him, according to multiple teams I've talked to, is that he's a bit "light." Meaning not necessarily his physical size but his playing style and his vulnerability to more powerful players on the defensive side. He's seen as a player with good instincts and no character concerns, though, and could be in play for several teams in the top half of the first round. -- Graziano

 

.....

• If teams in the middle-to-late part of the first round aren't thrilled with what's available and are looking to trade down, the flip side is that they'll need to find someone who wants to trade up. Three to watch are Baltimore, who could be aggressive coming up from 22 to land the offensive playmaker they're looking for, the Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs at No. 31 and the New Orleans Saints, who have the No. 29 pick as a result of the Sean Payton trade and have a history of moving up in the first round to get players they've targeted.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft2023/insider/story/_/id/36289814/2023-nfl-draft-buzz-latest-rumors-notes-teams-picks-trades-qbs-first-round

[DWinzit]

I do see the possibility of Van Ness, Murphy or Smith reaching 16. I like Wilson at the top and believe he has already been identified by a couple teams being the object of their desire.

 

While Keim mentions Murphy the most, I wonder if Van Ness might be more RR and JDR's style player. He feels the logical out of this group. I wish logic didn't play into this and it was just what they bring to the table because Wilson or Murphy might do more damage to the opposition....nothing against Van Ness of course 

 

If PJJ is available at 16 I believe he is their #1 target over all the others. I do not have him graded that way but...

Edited April 26, 2023 by DWinzit

[kingdaddy]

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

I’d love Van Ness at 16.

 

I'm really starting to like Van Ness too. I'd be happy with him if he's the pick. I also got to wondering how many 1st round picks we have on our offensive line and I think the answer is zero. That seems to be an issue that needs to be corrected. We had Trent and Scherff and since we let them go it's been a noticeable decline. might be time to go o-line with maybe a trade back?

[tmandoug1]

If we don't take OT in the 1st round the only other option to me would be a CB as long as that pick isn't a reach. Trade back and snag Harrison would be great. That would make me extremely happy. But who knows....lol.

[Skinsinparadise]

40 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

I do see the possibility of Van Ness, Murphy or Smith reaching 16. I like Wilson at the top and believe he has already been identified by a couple teams being the object of their desire.

 

While Keim mentions Murphy the most, I wonder if Van Ness might be more RR and JDR's style player. He feels the logical out of this group. I wish logic didn't play into this and it was just what they bring to the table because Wilson or Murphy might do more damage to the opposition....nothing against Van Ness of course 

 

If PJJ is available at 16 I believe he is their #1 target over all the others. I do not have him graded that way but...

 

Keim isn't about offering his personal opinions.  He knows no one gives a hoot on how he ranks the players.  So when he says Murphy over and over again, its not Keim acting like one of us here where he is personally hyped about a player -- its purely about what he hears from the FO.  And Keim is rarely wrong about who this FO likes.  

 

Like I said though Keim doesn't push back when others bring up Van Ness as to this team's interest.  So I suspect they have some interest in him, too.   But the dude he has mentioned outright directly they like, no ambiguity, and he's said so multiple times including last night is Murphy.

 

I agree that Van Ness feels up their alley.  Murphy feels up their alley too -- athletic freak with nice size.    Both him and Van Ness have nice size.  Both powerful.  Murphy, a bit more twitchy and a little more athletic than Van Ness.  Van Ness better at setting the edge.   But both are fairly complete players IMO with upside to grow.

 

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

41 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

 

 

If PJJ is available at 16 I believe he is their #1 target over all the others. I do not have him graded that way but...

 

That seems logical and its what said yesterday from Fowler which I posted yesterday.  Keim referenced the point too last night but forgot how he articulated it.  

 

PJJ would be my top O lineman in this draft.  Besides being a good player -- super high intangibles -- community minded leader.  I am thinking though almost no shot he lands at 16, I think there is some shot that Skoronski does.

 

I said awhile back and am sticking on the point, I think if there is s surprise faller on the O line who might be there at 16, its Skoronski even though the draft media seems to think no chance.  Will see.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[mhd24]

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

That seems logical and its what said yesterday from Fowler which I posted yesterday.  Keim referenced the point too last night but forgot how he articulated it.  

 

PJJ would be my top O lineman in this draft.  Besides being a good player -- super high intangibles -- community minded leader.  I am thinking though almost no shot he lands at 16, I think there is some shot that Skoronski does.

 

I said awhile back and am sticking on the point, I think if there is s surprise faller on the O line who might be there at 16, its Skoronski even though the draft media seems to think no chance.  Will see.

Yup Skoronski could make it to us at 16.  Chicago (9) probably takes tackle or edge over Skoronski.  Philly (10) could take him as BPA, but I figure they grab edge or even Bijan.  Tennessee (11) could take him, but I figure it is either a trade down, RT, or one of the QBs.  Houston (12) just took a guard high last year.  GB (13) doesn't need interior OL.  NE (14) could easily take him.  NYJ (15) doesn't need interior (ACT & Tomlinson).

[Warhead36]

If PJ Jr is there at 16 you sprint to the podium. Don’t overthink it.

[bowhunter]

Is it too early to already decide to be unhappy with the pick, regardless? I need a ruling here

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Here's my outlook for round 1

 

All those players at each category are super close.  It's part of the reason why for me its a no brainer to trade down if they can.  The players that are in bold are the ones that I suspect they'd consider in each rung. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[bird_1972]

14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Here's my outlook for round 1

 

All those players at each category are super close.  It's part of the reason why for me its a no brainer to trade down if they can.  The players that are in bold are the ones that I suspect they'd consider in each rung. 

 

 

 

I'd be down with a trade deep into the first round provided we can pick up 2024 draft capital as part of the package.

[bowhunter]

12 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Here's my outlook for round 1

 

All those players at each category are super close.  It's part of the reason why for me its a no brainer to trade down if they can.  The players that are in bold are the ones that I suspect they'd consider in each rung. 

 

 

Love that summary SIP. I'm realizing the potential need to add an edge, but my mind was already made up that OT was where we needed to go. So if we trade down (preferred) Harrison or Bergeron would be fine IF the FO is confident that they will be worthy of using that asset. I think I'd be happiest if a significant trade down occurs that gives us capital to grab some combo of (Harrison, Bergeron, Mauch,) and Jack Campbell

[Skinsinparadise]

14 minutes ago, bird_1972 said:

 

I'd be down with a trade deep into the first round provided we can pick up 2024 draft capital as part of the package.

 

I'd be surprised if they traded for 2024 capital considering context.  But in general, I'd like to see it, its not how this team under any era -- save Scott McCloughan who seem to roll that way.

 

I'd be good with them trading down for more capital in this draft

 

11 minutes ago, bowhunter said:

Love that summary SIP. I'm realizing the potential need to add an edge, but my mind was already made up that OT was where we needed to go. So if we trade down (preferred) Harrison or Bergeron would be fine IF the FO is confident that they will be worthy of using that asset. I think I'd be happiest if a significant trade down occurs that gives us capital to grab some combo of (Harrison, Bergeron, Mauch,) and Jack Campbell

 

I am working on my 2nd round version of this, Campbell is high on that list.  I don't know what to think of where Mauch lands in the draft but I suspect he will be there at 47.  Ditto Darnell Washington.

 

So what i was doing it expressing who I'd like when where I'd be personally happy with -- not the draft media who I share some takes with but also disagree on some other guys, Mauch included.

 

I do factor draft projection some but it's not the main driver in those rankings.  

 

Edit:  changed my mind a little took Mauch out of the late first and am putting him in the 2nd. 

Edited April 26, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I have a hard time seeing this FO and Coaching staff trading for 2024 assets, even if that's what the team SHOULD do. I guess you never know, because say KC is offering 31, 63 and a 2024 2nd round pick ... this FO could push to get that to be a 3rd or 4th this year, but if KC is inclined to stick with only 2 picks in 2023 as part of a package, then they might default their way into a future pick. Otherwise, I would expect any trade capital (at least early capital) to be in 2023.

 

I also have a hard time seeing a team give us true value for either Young or Sweat. I think Young has much higher long-term upside, so if we dealt anyone it would be Sweat IMO. But even then, I can't see us getting more than a 2nd or a 3rd at best. That would give us additional draft capital, but then you have to replace Sweat in some capacity. So you'd just be swapping his salary for a rookie 2nd or 3rd round contract. Helpful in long-term cap management, but doesn't do much for the 2023 roster. 

Edited April 26, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Koolblue13]

Skoronski at 16 and JMS at 47 would do more for this team long term than a lot of the other picks.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Just now, Koolblue13 said:

Skoronski at 16 and JMS at 47 would do more for this team long term than a lot of the other picks.

 

100% agreed. I think going RT - OC would be a massive upgrade both short and long-term, not to mention the OL depth in general. CB then becomes a priority in the 3rd. Maybe LB in 4th or 5th. But you lose some luxury in being able to add a long-term developmental piece at TE, S, DE, etc. 

 

But if it comes in exchange with a top-tier OL, fine by me. Worry about the rest later/after the draft.