2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

100% agreed. I think going RT - OC would be a massive upgrade both short and long-term, not to mention the OL depth in general. CB then becomes a priority in the 3rd. Maybe LB in 4th or 5th. But you lose some luxury in being able to add a long-term developmental piece at TE, S, DE, etc. 

 

But if it comes in exchange with a top-tier OL, fine by me. Worry about the rest later/after the draft. 

Even if Skoronskis ceiling is Scherff at guard, it fixes our interior for a decade and we can lean on our run game with a young QB.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Couple of interesting things that go against the grain of thinking here (or at least my thinking) ...

 

1. Chase Roullier is healthy and back and should be considered the starting OC

2. This staff likes Chris Paul and Saahdiq Charles as starting options at LG

 

So where does that leave Gates? Competition for LG or Center? Wylie is obviously our RT right now, but that could change post-draft. 

 

But if this staff is confident in Leno - Paul/Charles - Roullier/Gates - Cosmi - Wylie ... then maybe OL isn't forced as much as we think. BUT, we definitely need solutions beyond 2023 with Roullier and Leno's big cap hits, and to mitigate the concerns or uncertainties at LG.

[Skinsinparadise]

2nd round.  I am not repeating my late first rounders on this list.  But it goes without saying, I'd love the late first rounders above the players listed here if one fell, and i am guessing a player or two does.

 

I try to factor the round value for these players.  So I am not including guys I love who I think go in the 3rd-5th round.  So I do use mocks some as an idea of where these guys might go and then picked in that range those I like.

 

Heck doing this 2nd round exercise was illumninating for me because it makes me open to trading down again in the 2nd round.   a lot of those players are super close for me where i can easily interchange them in my rankings for players expected to go in that range.

 

As some have said here, me included, feels like the late 2nd-early 3rd might be the sweet spot in this draft value wise.  I bold the players again who I think they'd consider.  McDonald might go late first but I threw him here. 

 

I ommitted DT and WR because I get the impression they aren't looking at other spot early on.

 

 

 

Edited April 26, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

7 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Couple of interesting things that go against the grain of thinking here (or at least my thinking) ...

 

1. Chase Roullier is healthy and back and should be considered the starting OC

2. This staff likes Chris Paul and Saahdiq Charles as starting options at LG

 

So where does that leave Gates? Competition for LG or Center? Wylie is obviously our RT right now, but that could change post-draft. 

 

But if this staff is confident in Leno - Paul/Charles - Roullier/Gates - Cosmi - Wylie ... then maybe OL isn't forced as much as we think. BUT, we definitely need solutions beyond 2023 with Roullier and Leno's big cap hits, and to mitigate the concerns or uncertainties at LG.

Not sure about 1. There was an OTA recently. Were there any reports about Roullier's health? Personally I'd cut him after June 1st. Back to back season ending injuries is bad news moving forward.

 

Reg. 2: can't bank on Paul or Charles at all. That's why I think Wylie could end up being the starting LG and we draft a RT(Wright).

[Koolblue13]

5 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Couple of interesting things that go against the grain of thinking here (or at least my thinking) ...

 

1. Chase Roullier is healthy and back and should be considered the starting OC

2. This staff likes Chris Paul and Saahdiq Charles as starting options at LG

 

So where does that leave Gates? Competition for LG or Center? Wylie is obviously our RT right now, but that could change post-draft. 

 

But if this staff is confident in Leno - Paul/Charles - Roullier/Gates - Cosmi - Wylie ... then maybe OL isn't forced as much as we think. BUT, we definitely need solutions beyond 2023 with Roullier and Leno's big cap hits, and to mitigate the concerns or uncertainties at LG.

I'm not sure where the confidence in Cosmi at RG (or anywhere) is coming from. He's proven nothing, especially staying on the field.

 

Wylie is a bad tackle and average guard.

 

A healthy Roullier would be incredible for us. He was very good and is still young. 

 

I think the staff is hopeful about Paul and Charles but neither are being penciled in as locks to start. Wylie and Gates could very well be the starters at guard.

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

2nd round.  I am not repeating my late first rounders on this list.  But it goes without saying, I'd love the late first rounders above the players listed here if one fell, and i am guessing a player or two does.

 

I try to factor the round value for these players.  So I am not including guys I love who I think go in the 3rd-5th round.  So I do use mocks some as an idea of where these guys might go and then picked in that range those I like.

 

Heck doing this 2nd round exercise was illumninating for me because it makes me open to trading down again in the 2nd round.   a lot of those players are super close for me where i can easily interchange them in my rankings for players expected to go in that range.

 

As some have said here, me included, feels like the late 2nd-early 3rd might be the sweet spot in this draft value wise.

 

 

Ever since the Kuelchy Konnection for Campbell, I've gotten more and more excited about that pick.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

4 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I'm not sure where the confidence in Cosmi at RG (or anywhere) is coming from. He's proven nothing, especially staying on the field.

 

Wylie is a bad tackle and average guard.

 

A healthy Roullier would be incredible for us. He was very good and is still young. 

 

I think the staff is hopeful about Paul and Charles but neither are being penciled in as locks to start. Wylie and Gates could very well be the starters at guard.

 

Agree on these points, I'm just flagging those points because it all seems on the table, and the draft could go a totally different direction (and maybe not address OL until later) and these would likely be the reason.

[clskinsfan]

I wouldnt be shocked to see us double up at TE in this draft. It is so deep at that position that you could go with on of the higher ranked guys in round 2 and then snag a talented project like Wyle in the 5th or 6th. We need help at that position badly. So this is a great draft to address that.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

 

Ever since the Kuelchy Konnection for Campbell, I've gotten more and more excited about that pick.

 

He feels like the perfect complement to this defense even more so than corner to me.

 

We IMO can use a take on blockers -- play recognition type of LB like a Kuechly.   He's not as twitchy as Kuechly but he's a good athlete evidence by his killer combine.

[Koolblue13]

3 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Agree on these points, I'm just flagging those points because it all seems on the table, and the draft could go a totally different direction (and maybe not address OL until later) and these would likely be the reason.

Thank you. I'm glad someone agrees. Everyone seems so locked into Cosmi at RG and Chase being cut and Wylie at RT, and I don't see any of it as certain.

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

He feels like the perfect complement to this defense even more so than corner to me.

 

We IMO can use a take on blockers -- play recognition type of LB like a Kuechly.   He's not as twitchy as Kuechly but he's a good athlete evidence by his killer combine.

He is the type of backer that we should be using for what we've been asking of Davis for two years. It would free him up to play more read and react and blitz.

 

I've been very high on Sanders and I still am, but I've never been out on Campbell. That would be a great get on day two.

 

This draft is deep enough in the secondary top take a couple flyers later on. Campbell definitely fixes the hole in the middle.

[KDawg]

Guys I’d take at 16 (not in order)

 

Bryce Young (won’t be there)

Tyree Wilson (won’t be there)

Myles Murphy

Lukas Van Ness

Bijan Robinson

Jahmyr Gibbs

Paris Johnson

Peter Skoronski

Nolan Smith

Devon Witherspoon

 

Guys I’d consider at 16 if no trade back options:

 

Michael Mayer

Darnell Washington

Brian Branch

Darnell Wright

Christian Gonzalez

 

Guys I’d consider in a trade back on top of the guys listed above in the first:

 

Jack Campbell

Dawand Jones

Joey Porter

Deonte Banks

O’Cyrus Torrence

JSN

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

12 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Thank you. I'm glad someone agrees. Everyone seems so locked into Cosmi at RG and Chase being cut and Wylie at RT, and I don't see any of it as certain.

 

 

Rouller+Gates+Larsen at Center

Gates+Paul+Norwell+Charles at Left Guard

 

That's a lot of depth but also a lot of uncertainty.

 

If Roullier is back and healthy, and this team has him in their 2-year plans, then it really does change the makeup of what we need.

 

What if Chris Paul is a diamond in the rough and a legit long-term option at LG? We know this coaching staff really likes him. What if Norwell just needed a year in the system? What if Charles is finally ready to start? So many moving pieces, and I guess I've been working under the assumption that some of these guys are for-sure gone. But maybe not, depending on how the draft goes.

Edited April 26, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[bowhunter]

We long opined that we needed an upgrade at LB over Holcomb back when he was here. I mean it was a pressing need in 2022 lol. Although 16 is too soon for him, I  doubt that Campbell will be there at 47. Or I'm at least not sure I'd take that chance. Trade up from 2, or trade down from 1. But this might be the last chance for our Two ex-LB coaches to value the position

[bowhunter]

19 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Guys I’d take at 16 (not in order)

 

Bryce Young (won’t be there)

Tyree Wilson (won’t be there)

Myles Murphy

Lukas Van Ness

Bijan Robinson

Jahmyr Gibbs

Paris Johnson

Peter Skoronski

Nolan Smith

Devon Witherspoon

 

Guys I’d consider at 16 if no trade back options:

 

Michael Mayer

Darnell Washington

Brian Branch

Darnell Wright

Christian Gonzalez

 

Guys I’d consider in a trade back on top of the guys listed above in the first:

 

Jack Campbell

Dawand Jones

Joey Porter

Deonte Banks

O’Cyrus Torrence

JSN

 

 

No Bergeron even in category 3?

[JamesMadisonSkins]

5 minutes ago, bowhunter said:

We long opined that we needed an upgrade at LB over Holcomb back when he was here. I mean it was a pressing need in 2022 lol. Although 16 is too soon for him, I  doubt that Campbell will be there at 47. Or I'm at least not sure I'd take that chance. Trade up from 2, or trade down from 1. But this might be the last chance for our Two ex-LB coaches to value the position

 

I would still absolutely love to get 29+40 from the Saints for 16.

 

At 29-40-47 you would be well positioned to get OT, OC, LB, CB, TE ... and whatever position you miss on there you could still address with 97 and 118 and get potential 2023 contributors.

[actorguy1]

 

Washington Commanders: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

I think Washington will go with a corner or tackle here, and the Commanders have done plenty of work on Porter, a long, physical, feisty defensive back who fits what Ron Rivera needs in his scheme. He played a lot of ball for the Nittany Lions and should be able to step in right away for the Commanders, who would be putting a lot of faith in Sam Howell (and they do have that faith in him) by passing on Richardson at this stage of the first round. And I did get a little late information that Washington exec Marty Hurney has advocated for Richardson.

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, bowhunter said:

No Bergeron even in category 3?

 

 I love Bergeron. If there were a run on tackles he'd leap right into one of those spots.

 

The reason I don't have him there is I think he is a guy that could fall into the second and maybe even be there at 47. If there is a tackle run (top 3-4 taken by our pick) he could leap to the second category.

 

It's a fluid situation. 

[Skinsinparadise]

22 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Joey Porter

 

I totally forgot to include Porter on my list, he'd be on my list if they trade back deepish in the first. 

[Skinsinparadise]

3 minutes ago, actorguy1 said:

 

Washington Commanders: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State

I think Washington will go with a corner or tackle here, and the Commanders have done plenty of work on Porter, a long, physical, feisty defensive back who fits what Ron Rivera needs in his scheme. He played a lot of ball for the Nittany Lions and should be able to step in right away for the Commanders, who would be putting a lot of faith in Sam Howell (and they do have that faith in him) by passing on Richardson at this stage of the first round. And I did get a little late information that Washington exec Marty Hurney has advocated for Richardson.

 

Local media versus national media on Porter as to this team's interest in Porter.

 

National media seem to love to mock Porter to us at 16.  the local media doesn't seem to think so.  They have poked around a lot on Porter from what I've read as well but they've poked around on a lot of these corners. 

 

I am rooting for the local media to be right on this one.  I like Porter but don't love him.  I won't throw a brick at my TV if they took him at 16 but I'd be dissappointed.  I can deal with it more in a trade back.

[Skinsinparadise]

Silva, analytics guy, hates this team, has won though some mock draft contests

 

https://establishtherun.com/silva-ten-things-i-think-about-the-2023-nfl-draft/

 

Silva: Ten Things I Think About the 2023 NFL Draft

 

2. Quarterbacks after Bryce Young could slide a bit.

The signal-callers behind Young are concerningly flawed.

C.J. Stroud’s pocket presence is shaky on tape. And he flunked his pre-draft aptitude test.

Will Levis is a one-dimensional pocket passer with major accuracy concerns.

Anthony Richardson made 13 college starts, completing fewer than 55% of his career throws.

Hendon Hooker will be a 25-year-old rookie. He tore his left ACL last November.

I still think five quarterbacks can go in the first round, but I could envision Stroud falling toward the back end of the top 10 — if not out of it altogether — and Richardson landing in the teens or early 20s. Hooker seems genuinely 50-50 to be drafted in the top 31.

 

3. Bijan Robinson is a lock for the top 12.

Even at a devalued position, Robinson is viewed more by NFL teams as an offensive playmaker than a running back, averaged well over 13 yards per reception in three years at Texas, and tested off the charts athletically before the draft.

And regardless of the devaluation of the position he plays, Robinson is a consensus top-10 player on draft boards around the league. The weakness of this draft ensures he’ll go early.

The Lions at No. 6, Falcons at No. 8, Bears at No. 9, Eagles at No. 10, and Titans at No. 11 are all realistic landing spots.

I think the Texans at No. 12 represent Robinson’s absolute floor.

 

4. Will McDonald (EDGE, Iowa State) and Anton Harrison (OT, Oklahoma) will go earlier than expected.

Even though they don’t appear in every first-round mock, I think both McDonald and Harrison are virtual lock first-round picks.

McDonald was a prolific pass rusher for three years in the Big 12, then destroyed pre-draft testing. I actually think he could be in play as early as the Eagles at No. 10 overall.

Harrison can play both tackle spots, has over 34-inch arms, and tested better than expected in Indy. I think he’s the fairly clear-cut No. 5 offensive tackle behind Paris Johnson (Ohio State), Peter Skoronski (Northwestern), Broderick Jones (Georgia), and Darnell Wright (Tennessee).

 

5. Michael Mayer will be the first tight end drafted, and it won’t be close.

I’m old enough to remember when watching football players play mattered.

Mayer’s athleticism has been questioned, but his RAS score was higher than Mark Andrews of the Ravens.

Mayer was a prolific receiving tight end in South Bend and blocks his ass off. He’s dominant in the contested-catch game and, time and again, delivered in the clutch for the Irish, even as defenses sold out religiously to stop him.

At one of pro football’s toughest positions to play, Mayer profiles as an early contributor and long-term difference-maker.

Think Todd Heap.

 

6. Joey Porter Jr. (CB, Penn State) and Dalton Kincaid (TE, Utah) will go later than expected.

I’m heavily invested in Porter being drafted after pick 16.5 and would even bet he goes later than 19.5, Porter’s updated over/under draft slot on DraftKings. Plus-sized with stiffness in the hips, I think Porter might end up at safety in the pros.

My sense is teams value him less than how he’s regarded by NFL media.

While immensely talented, Kincaid’s pre-draft workout metrics don’t exist. Due to a thoracic back injury, Kincaid hasn’t played football or worked out in a measurable manner since last Nov. 26.

[actorguy1]

13 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Local media versus national media on Porter as to this team's interest in Porter.

 

National media seem to love to mock Porter to us at 16.  the local media doesn't seem to think so.  They have poked around a lot on Porter from what I've read as well but they've poked around on a lot of these corners. 

 

I am rooting for the local media to be right on this one.  I like Porter but don't love him.  I won't throw a brick at my TV if they took him at 16 but I'd be dissappointed.  I can deal with it more in a trade back.

Did you also notice at the end he said Marty Hurney has been talking up Richardson?

[Skinsinparadise]

3 minutes ago, actorguy1 said:

Did you also notice at the end he said Marty Hurney has been talking up Richardson?

 

I did. 

 

Haven't heard any of the beat guys mention it.  I know from Keim Hurney is the one who fancies himself as the Qb guru in the room, and supposedly was high on Herbert but he went one pick ahead of Carolina's pick that year.  

 

Weeks back Richardsoon seemed billed as a top 7 lock.  Now, I've seen some talk of him falling to around the range of our pick.

Edited April 26, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Conn]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

Skoronski at 16 and JMS at 47 would do more for this team long term than a lot of the other picks.

I want the best players we can get, but I would be more than okay pounding OL twice in the first two rounds (even better if it’s after a trade back) if that’s how it falls. Best shot at helping Howell succeed, or best shot at remaining building blocks for the next regime if he doesn’t. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[RWJ]

24 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

 I love Bergeron. If there were a run on tackles he'd leap right into one of those spots.

 

The reason I don't have him there is I think he is a guy that could fall into the second and maybe even be there at 47. If there is a tackle run (top 3-4 taken by our pick) he could leap to the second category.

 

It's a fluid situation. 

Logan Paulsen really likes Bergeron but his arm length is a concern along with his pass blocking.  Those are the concerns I have.  If you draft him in the 2nd as a OG it would be a great pick.  I also like Avila from TCU in the 2nd as a OG/OC. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I did. 

 

Haven't heard any of the beat guys mention it.  I know from Keim Hurney is the one who fancies himself as the Qb guru in the room, and supposedly was high on Herbert but he went one pick ahead of Carolina's pick that year.  

 

Weeks back Richardsoon seemed billed as a top 7 lock.  Now, I've seen some talk of him falling to around the range of our pick.

 

Richardson would be interesting. If he's there at #16, I would be extremely tempted to take him. And I love Howell.

 

It goes back to the old "draft a QB until you find one" mantra. Draft Richardson, start Howell. If Howell bombs out, you can groom Richardson for a posssible showcase and trade. If Howell struggles, you have your next guy to turn to later in 2023 and into 2024. Someone who is an absolute freak of an athlete with comps to Cam Newton that Ron won't be able to ignore.

 

Of course I would prefer the next FO choose the QB if it is not Howell, but if Richardson is there at 16 it will be a temptation for sure.

 

But it could also be smoke, to get someone like Baltimore or even one of the teams in the 2nd who pass on QB to make a big trade up with us to take Richardson.

 

I would kill for Houston's #33, a 4th round pick, and a 2024 1st if that sort of thing presented itself!