Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[TheGreatBuzz]

1 hour ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

interesting…. I think there is a greater than zero chance America and others may pressure Ukraine into accepting.  Especially since they are backed into a corner now.

 

Ukraine should be free to make the decision without pressure. And we should support it either way.

[LD0506]

Large quantities of munitions and supplies are making their way forward, the Ukrainians will answer soon.

[FootballZombie]

40 minutes ago, LD0506 said:

Large quantities of munitions and supplies are making their way forward, the Ukrainians will answer soon.

 

Yup.

 

 

Ukraine gonna respond w/ a giant middle finger. Nobody is taking that deal

[TradeTheBeal!]

LOL, somebody prolly gonna sell Cowgirl a bridge pretty soon.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

2 hours ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

 

Ukraine should be free to make the decision without pressure. And we should support it either way.

I agree. But the reality is that once aids stops Ukraines ability to continue to fight will be diminished so the US has huge sway. We are already trying one hand behind Ukraines back by limiting what it can target. Once the other hand gets pulled then Ukraine will have to surrender to Russias terms. 
 

I’d rather nato provide whatever is necessary to keep Russia on its side of the border, but NATO has already surrendered that. It seems clear that NATO is willing to let Russia have some of Ukraine, otherwise they would have been more hawkish from the start. Nobody ever thought Ukraine could beat back Russia.
 

Instead they embarrassed Russia and temporarily degraded its military capability. Now that Russia has been able to rebuild its military production capacity what is left for nato besides emptying its supplies 🤷‍♀️

 

There are significant symbolic reasons to support Ukraine, but I guess we will see if they are strong enough.

Edited May 24 by CousinsCowgirl84

[China]

Russia says it will strike British targets if UK weapons are used to hit its territory

 

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Thursday that Moscow will retaliate with strikes on British targets if British weapons are used by Ukraine to strike Russian territory.

 

Zakharova told reporters that British targets "on Ukraine's territory and beyond its borders" could be hit in such a scenario.

 

She was repeating a warning that Moscow first issued earlier this month after British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said Ukraine had a right to use weapons provided by London to hit targets inside Russia.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[Larry]

2 hours ago, China said:

Russia says it will strike British targets if UK weapons are used to hit its territory

 

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Thursday that Moscow will retaliate with strikes on British targets if British weapons are used by Ukraine to strike Russian territory.

 

Zakharova told reporters that British targets "on Ukraine's territory and beyond its borders" could be hit in such a scenario.

 

She was repeating a warning that Moscow first issued earlier this month after British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said Ukraine had a right to use weapons provided by London to hit targets inside Russia.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

"UK says its weapons will strike Russian targets if Russian weapons strike anywhere that isn't Russia"

[Skins24]

4 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

I agree. But the reality is that once aids stops Ukraines ability to continue to fight will be diminished so the US has huge sway. We are already trying one hand behind Ukraines back by limiting what it can target. Once the other hand gets pulled then Ukraine will have to surrender to Russias terms. 
 

I’d rather nato provide whatever is necessary to keep Russia on its side of the border, but NATO has already surrendered that. It seems clear that NATO is willing to let Russia have some of Ukraine, otherwise they would have been more hawkish from the start. Nobody ever thought Ukraine could beat back Russia.
 

Instead they embarrassed Russia and temporarily degraded its military capability. Now that Russia has been able to rebuild its military production capacity what is left for nato besides emptying its supplies 🤷‍♀️

 

There are significant symbolic reasons to support Ukraine, but I guess we will see if they are strong enough.

Like...most of this isn’t true at all.

We are not tying Ukraine's hands to anything...

NATO hasn't surrendered any concessions...

Support and aid are only increasing...

Russia will take DECADES to rebuild it's military to be even close to what it was...

😂😂

[CousinsCowgirl84]

27 minutes ago, Skins24 said:

Like...most of this isn’t true at all.

yes it is. You just haven’t been paying attention.

 

 

27 minutes ago, Skins24 said:

We are not tying Ukraine's hands to anything...

NATO hasn't surrendered any concessions...

 

 

Ukraine cannot use American weapons to attack targets in Russia. If you need that sourced I will. The concession is that NATO wouldn’t directly intervene to support Ukraine, even though they knew Ukraine couldn’t beat Russia unless  Russia decides to give up.

 

27 minutes ago, Skins24 said:

Support and aid are only increasing...

the difference between Russian artillery fire and Ukrainian artillery fire is telling a different story.

 

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/04/23/ukraine-war-artillery-shortage-production-military-aid-bill/

For months, Ukrainian troops have been firing about 2,000 rounds a day, barely enough to sustain a defensive war against the Russians. And even with the approval of new U.S. aid, most factories have yet to ramp up production.

“The problem is there is a huge shortage—worldwide—of artillery shells,” said Oleksandra Ustinova, a Ukrainian lawmaker. “The Europeans said they would provide us a million shells—they provided only 30 percent of those. The Americans have dried out their stocks, and they’re also delivering to Israel. And they are only ramping up the production line.” 

 

 

27 minutes ago, Skins24 said:

Russia will take DECADES to rebuild it's military to be even close to what it was...

😂😂

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-built-military-pre-war-level-us-general-1889569

 

Congress was warned on Thursday that Russia is replenishing its forces at a "far faster" rate than the United States originally estimated as the war in Ukraine rages on.

Speaking in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee, General Christopher Cavoli, the head of U.S. European Command and NATO's supreme allied commander in Europe, told lawmakers that Russia's military has "grown back to what they were before" launching its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.

[dfitzo53]

2 hours ago, Larry said:

 

"UK says its weapons will strike Russian targets if Russian weapons strike anywhere that isn't Russia"

Yeah Russia doesn't want that smoke. 

 

They're pretty much priced into posturing though. 

[Renegade7]

Im not buying Russia or Ukraine wants to keep fighting.

 

Felt for a while Ukraine should push to end the war as is and try to get their lost territory back another way after formally joining NATO and EU.

 

Stop being idealistic, Ukraine won enough by not losing Kyiv or Zelensky in all this.

[DCSaints_fan]

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

Im not buying Russia or Ukraine wants to keep fighting.

 

Felt for a while Ukraine should push to end the war as is and try to get their lost territory back another way after formally joining NATO and EU.

 

Stop being idealistic, Ukraine won enough by not losing Kyiv or Zelensky in all this.

Any territory Ukraine doesnt get back before a ceasefire, they aren’t getting back.   Putin will Russify the terrirories under his control.  They’ve almost there as it is, but with the war they can’t devote their full effort.

 

Ukraine may have no option but to stop militarily contesting Russian control of its land as a condition for peace, but aI can’t see them ever doing so without being able to join some type of defensive alliance with major powers (the EU or NATO).  Otherwise it would only be a matter of time before Russia rebuilds and decides to finish the job. 

Edited May 25 by DCSaints_fan

[Renegade7]

6 hours ago, DCSaints_fan said:

Any territory Ukraine doesnt get back before a ceasefire, they aren’t getting back.   Putin will Russify the terrirories under his control.  They’ve almost there as it is, but with the war they can’t devote their full effort.

 

Ukraine may have no option but to stop militarily contesting Russian control of its land as a condition for peace, but aI can’t see them ever doing so without being able to join some type of defensive alliance with major powers (the EU or NATO).  Otherwise it would only be a matter of time before Russia rebuilds and decides to finish the job. 

 

Ukraine needs to look past Putin and even Zelensky.

 

You right they may never get their territory back, endgame needs to be able join NATO and EU, not getting that territory back.

 

We are the sum of our choices.  Who am I to tell that country to take an L in one battle to win the big picture of the war? I jus hope someone is.

[TradeTheBeal!]

The Tailgate truly is a place where the tender and gentle among us can gather.

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Scorpion_and_the_Frog

[Skins24]

On 5/24/2024 at 7:18 PM, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

yes it is. You just haven’t been paying attention.

😂

Perfect. Your whole post perfect. I'll explain why in 40 years. 50 max 🙂

 

*****************

 

Yes, unfortunately, the big endgame for Ukraine is to join NATO or the EU. But I say unfortunately because, at least for NATO, one of the conditions is - no border disputes. Even if they do concede some territory, that would still leave them out, until a more reasonable dictator comes to power in Russia 😒

We know at least Hungary won't waive that requirement.

 

Giving Putin any semblance of a "win" right now, doesn't benefit Ukraine in any way. Fortunately, they know this.

 

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

11 minutes ago, Skins24 said:

😂

Perfect. Your whole post perfect. I'll explain why in 40 years. 50 max 🙂

 

 

 

You are confusing what is happening with what my position is. They are different things.

 

[Skins24]

7 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

 

You are confusing what is happening with what my position is. They are different things.

 

No, that doesn't matter. You post is perfect for multiple reasons you're not thinking of 🙂

Our positions are probably very similar, it's just there's a couple of specific things though that made me smile broadly, as they are perfect examples of something. A couple of somethings.

 

And I'm fully aware this seems just silly and vague, lol. I sincerely apologize and promise to explain....in the 2060s 😀

***

To actually respond to something in your post - as far as them "regaining" losses, quality matters. If you have 10 T-80 tanks, lose them, then replace them with 10 70-year old T-60 tanks, yes you still technically have 10 tanks, but capability has certainly diminished.

Russia's demographic set up is certainly not ideal to replace its human losses, which will lead to a whole host of other problems...

[BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen]

Russia will use any ceasefire to rebuild and just continue the war later. They will continue using Siberian troops as cannon fodder so the dominant Russians won't care...if you think our citizens are alienated from the soldiers who protect the US, Russia is far worse.

 

Ukraine will have to give up the land they already lost, but that doesn't mean they have to make it easy for Putin to pull his head out of the noose. Of course if Putin uses nukes all bets are off.

 

The Europeans deserve a lot of blame...they continued to buy natural gas from Russia after the 2008 and 2014 invasions...no wonder Putin thought they'd do nothing this time.

 

Putin believes that Russian culture means he has the right to dominate and invade his neighbors...no matter that those countries want.

[PokerPacker]

A deal with Putin is worth less than the paper it's on.

[Gurgeh]

Russia won't stop with Ukraine. If Putin gets what he wants there, next will be Georgia (what he hasn't already grabbed) and Moldova (where he's already laying the groundwork). And after that, he's up against the NATO states, but he's betting by that time the US will have left NATO, so the small Baltic states will be vulnerable. Politically he's funding the far right parties in Europe to weaken Western democracies.

 

On the battlefield, the latest Russian offensive against Kharkiv has been halted, and in some areas pushed back almost to the border. The army wanted 75,000 troops for the push, but launched the assault with just 30,000 to take what ground they could before US ammunition arrived. Now the ammo has reached the front, Russian casualties have been some of the highest of the war (some reports say its an 8:1 rate), but to Putin it's blood well spent as he's gained a few more miles. The rest of the 75,000 troops are now assembled and massing in safety on the other side of the Russian border, where the Ukrainians aren't allowed to strike with US weapons. It must be unbelievably frustrating to have to just sit and wait for the enemy reinforcements to roll back the lines again.

 

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

On 5/26/2024 at 10:08 PM, Skins24 said:

N

***

To actually respond to something in your post - as far as them "regaining" losses, quality matters. If you have 10 T-80 tanks, lose them, then replace them with 10 70-year old T-60 tanks, yes you still technically have 10 tanks, but capability has certainly diminished.

 

except, that is not what the article has said. It specifically says Russia has rebuilt its military capabilities.

 

On 5/26/2024 at 10:08 PM, Skins24 said:

 

Russia's demographic set up is certainly not ideal to replace its human losses, which will lead to a whole host of other problems...

 

300k people sounds like a lot, but it’s really a drop in the bucket compared to the Russian population.

 

The demographics problem is the same problem faced by most western countries.

[Skins24]

On 5/28/2024 at 7:13 AM, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

except, that is not what the article has said. It specifically says Russia has rebuilt its military capabilities.

 

 

300k people sounds like a lot, but it’s really a drop in the bucket compared to the Russian population.

 

The demographics problem is the same problem faced by most western countries.

There is a plethora of websites, githubs, youtubes that are documenting Russia's losses and all that is being moved from storage.

 

 

It's 300K a year.

This is 300K extra a year on top of the masses that left when the war started, on top of COVID, on top of the already awful demographic set up. Yes, it's the same problem most western countries are facing. Only exacerbated. And with the way human beings are set up, it's only going to get worse.

 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

2 hours ago, Skins24 said:

There is a plethora of websites, githubs, youtubes that are documenting Russia's losses and all that is being moved from storage..

 

yea. But like you point out, most of those losses are old equipment, which according to US assessments, they have been able to regain those capabilities.

it wasn’t 300k/ year, it was since the war began. 
 

You can argue with credible sourcing all you want. My advice would be to take the rosey assessments proffered by Twitter osint with a grain of salt.

 

[TradeTheBeal!]

@Spaceman Spiff, come get your boy.

 

 

[BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen]

This is one of the best sites for documenting equipment losses: https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

 

True, the Russkies have lost a lot of old equipment...but they were using that old equipment since a lot of their newer stuff already got whacked. They have thousands of T-34 tanks from WW II that they can still use. 😆

 

Remember they had all this firepower available in Afghanistan from 1979-89, and that didn't do them much good...and they lost only 13k soldiers in those ten years, WAY below what they've lost in Ukraine.

 

But most of Putin's combat casualties are ethnic minorities from Siberia, so that's why there's been little outcry in Moscow.

 

In addition to completely botching their preparations and expectations for the war, the Russkies were caught off guard by how easily modern battle tanks (great for suppressing hostile urbanites) could be taken out by relatively cheap drones.

 

They still send massed groups of soldiers forward to their deaths, which they've been doing since World War One, in order to find enemy positions they can pound with artillery...that's one thing Russkies are good at, blowing stuff up with artillery, but most of what they hit are civilian buildings.

Edited May 30 by BringMetheHeadofBruceAllen