Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[PeterMP]

5 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

I've heard and read there were more natural resources further south of Stalingrad, and that while what's being said about counter offensives may have mattered, it was very much about pride, ego, and sending a message concerning a town named after Stalin. 

 

Have to keep in mind Hitler was a certified drug addict by this point in the war, and thats arguably a bigger reason for him doing stupid **** like invading Russia in the first place and thus eventually losing.

 

The oil fields they wanted were quite a bit south of Stalingrad but if the Germans would have just taken the oil fields they would have opened themselves up to continued harassing counter attacks by the Soviets over a large area that it wouldn't have been possible for them to defend.

 

 

[tshile]

1 hour ago, visionary said:

I remember that Germany invaded USSR initially for the oil...I think.

 

Yeah but they show how those oil fields were part of the strategy and they shifted things around just to go after the city of Stalingrad because it would destroy Staline ego/power/whatever. 
 

the ww2 in color is pretty good (no idea how accurate)

[tshile]

39 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

I've heard and read there were more natural resources further south of Stalingrad, and that while what's being said about counter offensives may have mattered, it was very much about pride, ego, and sending a message concerning a town named after Stalin. 

 

Have to keep in mind Hitler was a certified drug addict by this point in the war, and thats arguably a bigger reason for him doing stupid **** like invading Russia in the first place and thus eventually losing.

There was a river they decided if they controlled it would cut off the oil fields area as it was a major/only supply route. 
 

 

[visionary]

 

[DCSaints_fan]

4 hours ago, PeterMP said:

But it is still a big number.  I'd say at least 200K actual military deaths and it absolutely might be more.  But it is also likely lower than the 6.8 million of WW2.

I don't think the number of military deaths affects the ability to function as a state in the short term, although in the longer term obviously it does.  The younger 18-25 year olds who are going to be in combat arms probably just wouldn't contribute as much to the economy or the state, as they largely have not yet acquired the necessary skills yet.  Especially in Russia whose economy is based on natural resource extraction which does not require much labor.  If the number military deaths gets high enough it does raise questions to the viability of Russia in the long term, which had deep questions even before the current conflict.

But before that issue is ever comes up, there might be a loss rate at which they would be forced to do mobilization.   A true universal mobilization would be politically unpopular. So I'd imagine if it comes to it Putin/FSB will try to backdoor it in.  (The US actually did something similar with "stop loss" during the WoT) They already have universal conscription, you just have to "convince" the conscripts to sign contracts so they can be legally deployed outside of Russia.  So one night you give them too much vodka and boom, in the morning their name is on the line which is dotted.  Especially in the hinterlands of Russia far away from Moscow which present less of a threat to Putin, men who wont be missed as much, etc..  Russia might also pull the trick of absorbing conquered areas of Ukraine into Russia which they can use to justify sending conscripts to.

 

From the last conscript batch which finished in April they were apparently able to convince something like 25-35k to sign contracts.  This partially offset their recent losses which were maybe 60k depending on what sources you believe.  They have another batch of conscripts "graduating" in the fall.  But I don't think manpower is really the issue, although there is the issue of certain MOS (like say, tankers 😉)  But this is mostly an artillery and air war.

[DCSaints_fan]

3 hours ago, visionary said:

I remember that Germany invaded USSR initially for the oil...I think.

 

Its right in Mein Kampf. Hitler hated Bolshevism, and always planned to invade  the Soviet Union. 

https://alphahistory.com/nazigermany/hitler-on-russia-and-bolshevism-1924-2/
 

Quote

Never forget that the rulers of present-day Russia are common blood-stained criminals; that they are the scum of humanity which, favoured by circumstances, overran a great state in a tragic hour, slaughtered out thousands of her leading intelligentsia in wild bloodlust, and now for almost ten years have been carrying on the most cruel and tyrannical regime of all time.

As for the question of oil, it was more the land itself, and all resources it contained, but especially the agricultural land for the planned lebensraum.   Germany was scarcely food secure before WW2 and becoming wholely self-sufficient was a major goal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Food_and_agriculture_in_Nazi_Germany#Lebensraum  Later as the war progressed, yes getting access to those oil fields in Baku specifically did become a goal as a way to continue fueling the war machine as they realized it was starting to become a limitation when Barbarossa failed.

Hitler only made the temporary alliance with the Soviet Union because of political realities at the time, and did not want to fight a two-front war.   But after France was conquered and it was looking like the UK was on the ropes, they didn't have to worry as much about the Western front.   Also he became increasingly convinced was some sort of secret alliance between the UK and the Soviets, and knocking out the Soviet Union would be the way to force the UK to sign a peace treaty and end the war.  Unfortunately can't find a reference for this one, I think it was somewhere in Rise and Fall of the Third Reich (Shirer)

[EmirOfShmo]

 

[The Sisko]

Not sure if this has been posted, but it didn't come up in a search. A great discussion of why the Ukrainian artillery has been so effective in spite of being heavily outnumbered. As more western artillery continues to arrive, I think there's eventually going to be a tipping point and it won't be pretty for ole Vlad.

 

 

[visionary]

 

[China]

Russia cracks down on critics of military actions in Ukraine

 

Russian authorities kept up their crackdown against citizens who speak out about the fighting in Ukraine, extending a critic’s detention on Wednesday, confirming charges against two others and prompting Moscow’s chief rabbi to flee the country.

 

Russia adopted a law criminalizing spreading allegedly false information about its military shortly after its troops rolled into Ukraine in late February. The offense is punishable by up to 15 years in prison. Human rights advocates have counted dozens of cases. Russians must use the term “military operation” when speaking of the fighting in Ukraine.

 

In the latest development, a Moscow court on Wednesday extended the detention of Vladimir Kara-Murza Jr., a journalist and former associate of assassinated Russian opposition leader Boris Nemtsov. The court extended Kara-Murza’s detention from June 12 to Aug. 12 on accusations that he spread “false information” about the country’s armed forces. The activist rejects the charges.

 

Kara-Murza in 2015 and 2017 survived poisonings that he blamed on the authorities. Russian officials have denied responsibility.

 

Russian investigative journalist Andrei Soldatov, who spent years exposing the activities of Russian security agencies and is now living in London, reported this week that a criminal case had been opened against him. Soldatov is accused of spreading false information about the Russian military. Soldatov reported that his bank accounts in Russia have been frozen.

 

Russian authorities confirmed they have filed similar charges against popular Russian fiction writer Dmitry Glukhovsky, who also now lives outside of Russia. Glukhovsky had posted a video showing a tank shelling a residential building in the Ukrainian port city of Mariupol, along with commentary criticizing Russia’s military operation. He is a former journalist and author of the best-selling novel “Metro-2033.”

 

Click on the link for the full article

[China]

Britons sentenced to death after ‘show trial’ in Russian-occupied Ukraine

 

Two British men and a Moroccan national captured while fighting in the Ukrainian army in Mariupol have been sentenced to death by pro-Russia officials after a days-long process described as a “disgusting Soviet-era show trial”.

 

A court in Russian-controlled east Ukraine convicted 28-year-old Aiden Aslin, from Newark, 48-year-old Shaun Pinner, from Watford, and Saaudun Brahim on charges of “terrorism”. Observers said the process was intended to imitate the war crimes trials of Russian soldiers taking place in Kyiv.

 

Both Britons have said they were serving in the Ukrainian marines, making them active-duty soldiers who should be protected by the Geneva conventions on prisoners of war. However, Russian state media has portrayed them as mercenaries, and the court has convicted them on the charge of “being a mercenary”.

 

The ruling was swiftly condemned by top British officials.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[China]

Ukraine LIVE: Putin humiliated as leading battalion of troops REFUSES to continue war

 

Ukraine's Armed Forces reported that members of a motor rifle brigade from the 1st Army Corps of the Russian Armed Forces refused after defeats in Kharkiv Oblast, in the east. This follows reports that Russian soldiers are attempting to set up "sham marriages" in order to get out of Ukraine. Analysts have claimed that Russian troops are "morally depressed" and could soon run out of combat-ready units.

 

--------------------

 

 

[China]

 

[visionary]

 

[FrFan]

 

 

Vessels belonging to the USC business family continue to export grain from occupied Sevastopol. This time the ship "Matros Pozynich" was recorded near the grain terminal of Avlita.

[bcl05]

I have never watched one minute of pro wrestling or seen any of his movies, but I’m now a huge John Cena fan.  

[Die Hard]

27 minutes ago, bcl05 said:

I have never watched one minute of pro wrestling or seen any of his movies, but I’m now a huge John Cena fan.  

This Tweet made my heart swell and my eyes teary.

 

I hope it’s not congestive heart failure.

[The 12th Commandment]

54 minutes ago, Die Hard said:

This Tweet made my heart swell and my eyes teary.

 

I hope it’s not congestive heart failure.

Must be catchy

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

You know who is the greatest human being alive today?

 

[CobraCommander]

3 hours ago, bcl05 said:

I have never watched one minute of pro wrestling or seen any of his movies, but I’m now a huge John Cena fan.  

That made me want to ugly cry.

[visionary]

 

 

[China]

Russia-Ukraine live: Moscow ‘destroys’ depot with western weapons

 

Moscow claims it also shot down Ukrainian fighter jets in eastern region as fierce fighting continues in Severodonetsk.

• Russia says its forces used Kalibr cruise missiles to destroy a large depot with US and European weapons in Ukraine’s Ternopil region.
• An official in Ukraine’s southern region says Kyiv forces are “out of ammo” as battles rage with Russian troops.
• Russia will respond “proportionately and appropriately” to a NATO buildup in Poland, an official says.
• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy struck a defiant note, vowing “we will prevail” over Russian invaders.
• Ukraine says about 800 people are hiding at the Azot plant in the besieged city of Severodonetsk.
• Russian troops are preparing a new offensive against the city of Sloviansk, Ukraine’s military says.

[China]

Is Russia exporting grain from Ukraine?

 

Russia is sending grain from Ukraine overseas, Russian-appointed officials in occupied southern Ukraine say.

 

The claim - which the BBC has not been able to verify - comes as Ukrainian officials accuse Russia of stealing about 600,000 tonnes of its grain and exporting some of it.

Russia denies it is stealing grain.

 

Accessing Ukraine's stockpiled grain has become urgent internationally: millions of tonnes are exported annually to Africa and the Middle East.

 

But it cannot be shipped now because Russia's navy is blockading Ukraine's Black Sea ports.

 

And Russia says Ukraine must de-mine waters off the Black Sea coast for corridors to export the grain to become operational.

The US alleges that Russia is trying to sell stolen Ukrainian wheat to drought-stricken countries in Africa, the New York Times reported.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[China]

Ukraine is running out of ammunition as prospects dim on the battlefield

 

The euphoria that accompanied Ukraine’s unforeseen early victories against bumbling Russian troops is fading as Moscow adapts its tactics, recovers its stride and asserts its overwhelming firepower against heavily outgunned Ukrainian forces.

 

Newly promised Western weapons systems are arriving, but too slowly and in insufficient quantities to prevent incremental but inexorable Russian gains in the eastern Donbas region of Ukraine, which is now the focus of the fight.

 

The Ukrainians are still fighting back, but they are running out of ammunition and suffering casualties at a far higher rate than in the initial stages of the war. Around 200 Ukrainian soldiers are now being killed every day, up from 100 late last month, an aide to President Volodymyr Zelensky told the BBC on Friday — meaning that as many as 1,000 Ukrainians are being taken out of the fight every day, including those who are injured.

 

The Russians are still making mistakes and are also losing men and equipment, albeit at a lesser rate than in the first months of the conflict. In one sign that they are suffering equipment shortages, they have been seen on videos posted on social media hauling hundreds of mothballed, Soviet-era T-62 tanks out of storage to be sent to Ukraine.

 

But the overall trajectory of the war has unmistakably shifted away from one of unexpectedly dismal Russian failures and tilted in favor of Russia as the demonstrably stronger force.

 

Ukrainian and U.S. hopes that the new supplies of Western weaponry would enable Ukraine to regain the initiative and eventually retake the estimated 20% of Ukrainian territory captured by Russia since its Feb. 24 invasion are starting to look premature, said Oleksandr Danylyuk, an adviser to the Ukrainian government on defense and intelligence issues.

 

“The strategies and tactics of the Russians are completely different right now. They are being much more successful,” he said. “They have more resources than us and they are not in a rush.”

 

Click on the link for the full article

[China]

Russia has a hunger plan. Vladimir Putin is preparing to starve much of the developing world as the next stage in his war in Europe.

 

In normal times, Ukraine is a leading exporter of foodstuffs. A Russian naval blockade now prevents Ukraine from exporting grain. 2/16 

If the Russian blockade continues, tens of millions of tons of food will rot in silos, and tens of millions of people in Africa and Asia will starve. 3/16 

The horror of Putin's hunger plan is so great that we have a hard time apprehending it. We also tend to forget how central food is to politics. Some historical examples can help. 4/16 

 

Click on the link for the rest