Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[TheGreatBuzz]

Turkey's geographic location makes it a very important part of NATO.

[DogofWar1]

Also I think there is some inherent value in being able to have disputes and, y'know, still be allies.

 

Also there is value in having a nation like Turkey that has maintained a working relationship with both NATO and Russia.  Turkey has shown they aren't pacifist slouches either, their TB2 drones are one of the most decisive weapons of the war so far, and Russia previously got a bloody nose from them shooting down a plane of theirs in 2015 and Russia let it go.

 

Not everyone is going to agree with us 100% of the time on everything.  Throwing a tantrum at the first sign of disagreements and kicking them out of NATO just hurts NATO in the long run.  It reinforces the narrative that NATO is just the US' fan club and everyone else is there to service us, and the moment you don't, you're out.  That will increase the likelihood that nations will leave.

[88Comrade2000]

2 hours ago, LD0506 said:

Ukraine is going to win

America’s heavy weapons will make the difference against the Russians

 

https://spectatorworld.com/topic/odds-now-favor-ukrainian-victory-russia/?fbclid=IwAR0PuK5riM7BCskSOATYb_hwidv5rtD1Z0SZ3jUoS73FX_OaFZTweUAalKc

I think it ends in a stalemate. Russia will control the areas do now and Ukraine will just have to come to a peace agreement. 

 

Russia will rebuild and try again in the future. Putin's eventual successor will be a military person who will make sure Russia's isn't as pathetic as it is now.

 

Why would Ukraine make an agreement?  Eventually they won't be receiving assistance and be pressured to make a deal That includes us. The next Congress will be more Maga and they aren't giving Ukraine a dime. Europe will no longer support  the impact , this is having on their economies . Their citizens will demand Europe stop supporting Ukraine ad their leaders will buckle. 

 

Russia just needs to wait it out.

[Peregrine]

14 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

I think it ends in a stalemate. Russia will control the areas do now and Ukraine will just have to come to a peace agreement. 

 

Russia will rebuild and try again in the future. Putin's eventual successor will be a military person who will make sure Russia's isn't as pathetic as it is now.

 

Why would Ukraine make an agreement?  Eventually they won't be receiving assistance and be pressured to make a deal That includes us. The next Congress will be more Maga and they aren't giving Ukraine a dime. Europe will no longer support  the impact , this is having on their economies . Their citizens will demand Europe stop supporting Ukraine ad their leaders will buckle. 

 

Russia just needs to wait it out.

Russia cant wait anything out.  Their economy is falling apart, they are running out of money and are using up their mediocre weapons, leaving them with those they know probably dont work.  Ukraine can dig in and the longer this goes on, the more Russia falls apart economically, socially, militarily, and the will of both the people to live it and soldiers to die in it will continue to erode, while Ukraines will not.  You've completely misread it.

 

The only hope Russia really have, and the real danger is they can grab the rest of the two separatist regions and declare new governments, annex them into Russia and say now that any foreign military entering there is declaring war on Russia.  It may not work but its at least the only play they have, and they want to do it as quickly as possible.

[DogofWar1]

Lol.

 

Some bad language in the translation but it's pretty funny.

 

 

[DCSaints_fan]

2 hours ago, Peregrine said:

Russia cant wait anything out.  Their economy is falling apart, they are running out of money and are using up their mediocre weapons, leaving them with those they know probably dont work.  Ukraine can dig in and the longer this goes on, the more Russia falls apart economically, socially, militarily, and the will of both the people to live it and soldiers to die in it will continue to erode, while Ukraines will not.  You've completely misread it.

 

The economic impact to Russia is often overstated.   The estimates I've seen for contrations to Russia's economy this year are between 7-15%.  This is significant, and for a country like the US this would be a political disaster but Putin doesn't have to care about pesky things like elections.

 

 

2 hours ago, Peregrine said:

The only hope Russia really have, and the real danger is they can grab the rest of the two separatist regions and declare new governments, annex them into Russia and say now that any foreign military entering there is declaring war on Russia.  It may not work but its at least the only play they have, and they want to do it as quickly as possible.

 

Yes, I think that is what they will do.  I think there will be some type of ceasefire offer from Russia soon after Mariupol is captured, which means a few weeks at best.  But they may try to grab much of the Donbas as they can.  If the ceasefire is accepted, they will have a fakerendum in Kherson, which will be absorbed by Russia and that allows them to send conscripts there.  The current line of contact will be fortified.  They try to modernize their army / air force and in a few years  perhaps after the Western coalition is not as strong they make another attempt, probably in the north and east, maybe Odessa as well.

Edited May 20, 2022 by DCSaints_fan

[Larry]

7 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

Then don't bring up how important they are in context to the frustration I brought with having them in NATO and why.

This may come as a shock to you, but I don't need your permission to post here. 

[Renegade7]

10 hours ago, DogofWar1 said:

Also I think there is some inherent value in being able to have disputes and, y'know, still be allies.

 

Also there is value in having a nation like Turkey that has maintained a working relationship with both NATO and Russia.  Turkey has shown they aren't pacifist slouches either, their TB2 drones are one of the most decisive weapons of the war so far, and Russia previously got a bloody nose from them shooting down a plane of theirs in 2015 and Russia let it go.

 

Not everyone is going to agree with us 100% of the time on everything.  Throwing a tantrum at the first sign of disagreements and kicking them out of NATO just hurts NATO in the long run.  It reinforces the narrative that NATO is just the US' fan club and everyone else is there to service us, and the moment you don't, you're out.  That will increase the likelihood that nations will leave.

 

More like a final straw.

 

I keep having to remind myself NATO is not designed to protect democracy from authoritarianism, thanks for bringing that back home. That's why it's perfectly fine to have an authoritarian member in NATO getting in the way of doing that.

 

Yes, I wish there was a way to be amicable with nations that are very far apart in the values we claim to aspire to protect without indefinite military defense pacts.

Edited May 21, 2022 by Renegade7

[China]

Ukraine invasion could cause global food crisis, UN warns

 

Russia's invasion of Ukraine could soon cause a global food crisis that may last for years, the UN has warned.

 

Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said the war had worsened food insecurity in poorer nations due to rising prices.

 

Some countries could face long-term famines if Ukraine's exports are not restored to pre-war levels, he added.

 

The conflict has cut off supplies from Ukraine's ports, which once exported vast amounts of cooking oil as well as cereals such as maize and wheat.

 

This has reduced the global supply and caused the price of alternatives to soar. Global food prices are almost 30% higher than the same time last year, according to the UN.

 

Click on the link for the full article

Edited May 20, 2022 by China

[China]

Ukraine says giant Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant can't supply Russia

 

Ukraine has dismissed as "wishful thinking" Russia's plan to connect a giant Ukrainian nuclear power station to the Russian electricity grid.

 

Russian troops are occupying the sprawling Zaporizhzhia plant by the Dnieper River in southern Ukraine.

 

It is Europe's biggest nuclear plant. The Ukrainian staff are still operating it, but Russia has sent its own nuclear experts to monitor their work.

 

Russia's deputy prime minister has vowed to sell power from it to Ukraine.

 

Marat Khusnullin said Russia would integrate the Zaporizhzhia plant with Russia's energy system if Kyiv refused to pay for the plant's electricity.

 

Visiting Russian-occupied southern Ukraine on Wednesday he said "if the Ukrainian energy system is ready to receive [electricity] and pay for it, then we'll work, but if not - then the plant will work for Russia".

 

However a spokesman for Ukraine's state nuclear agency Energoatom said it would take years to link the plant to Russia.

 

"The plant only works in Ukraine's energy grid," Leonid Oliynyk told the BBC.

 

"The Russians can build a power line theoretically, but it will take a long time, like their Crimean bridge - several years," he said, referring to the bridge connecting Crimea, which Russia annexed in 2014, to Russian territory.

 

"Now the power station is working at a minimum level, but Kyiv remains in charge, all the power lines are controlled by Ukraine. The Russian statement is wishful thinking," Mr Oliynyk added.

 

Click on the link for the full article

[DogofWar1]

 

Governor of Kaliningrad?

 

More like Governor of Killed by a Grad.

[RansomthePasserby]

18 hours ago, DCSaints_fan said:

Yes, I think that is what they will do.  I think there will be some type of ceasefire offer from Russia soon after Mariupol is captured, which means a few weeks at best.  But they may try to grab much of the Donbas as they can.  If the ceasefire is accepted, they will have a fakerendum in Kherson, which will be absorbed by Russia and that allows them to send conscripts there.  The current line of contact will be fortified.  They try to modernize their army / air force and in a few years  perhaps after the Western coalition is not as strong they make another attempt, probably in the north and east, maybe Odessa as well.

A ceasefire won’t be accepted by Ukraine. They’ve already stated they’re going for a long war and they know Russia’s offer for a cease fire only favors Russia in the the long run. 

[China]

Russia to cut off gas to Finland

 

Russia is cutting off its supply of natural gas to Finland as of Saturday as Helsinki moves forward with its effort to join NATO in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

 

Finnish energy company Gasum on Friday said it had been notified by the Russian energy giant Gazprom that it would shut off its supply of gas the next day.

 

The announcement comes as Russia demands that Finland pay for the natural gas in rubles, which Finland has refused to do.

 

It also adds a new layer to an escalating energy fight between Russia and much of Europe fueled by the war in Ukraine.

 

The European Union earlier this month proposed an oil ban on imports from Russia. This week, the EU unveiled additional details on its plan to reduce its dependence on Russian natural gas. 

 

Russia has already cut off gas to Poland and Bulgaria. 

 

Click on the link for the full article

[China]

Russia may be running out of crucial targeting drones; brutal siege of Mariupol steel plant ends

 

After months of heavy fighting, Russia has declared victory over the massive Azovstal steel plant in strategic port city of Mariupol that has been almost entirely destroyed. There has not been confirmation from Ukrainian authorities.

 

The U.S. and others walked out of an international meeting in Bangkok in protest as Russia’s economic minister was speaking, and U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson has spoken to his Turkish counterpart to address his opposition to Sweden and Finland’s NATO bids.

 

Meanwhile, Russia may be running low on crucial supplies of unmanned aerial vehicles, and has halted gas supplies to Finland in response to its application to join the NATO alliance.

 

Click on the link for more

[Larry]

You know, it's getting easier to forgive our "we'll do sanctions, except for gas" allies, when Russia starts cutting off their gas. 

[88Comrade2000]

9 hours ago, RansomthePasserby said:

A ceasefire won’t be accepted by Ukraine. They’ve already stated they’re going for a long war and they know Russia’s offer for a cease fire only favors Russia in the the long run. 

Doesn’t matter what Ukraine wants.

 

They can’t  do much without the west supplying them arms.

 

There’s going to be a point when Europe no longer supports Ukraine and they will demand Ukraine make a deal. The European people won’t like the impact on their economy for too long and demand their leaders get the oil and gas from Russia. They will tell their leaders the time for a deal is at hand.

 

Biden won’t be able to keep NATO on the same page too much longer and Joe will be completely impotent his final 2 years.

[visionary]

 

 

[China]

 

[visionary]

 

[Captain Wiggles]

Quote

French Minister for European Affairs Clement Beaune told Radio J that it would take Ukraine 15 to 20 years to achieve this goal.

 

Why tho? It's normally a process that takes less than five years. Obviously Ukraines situation isn't normal but twenty years to gain EU membership seems unreasonable. 

[Renegade7]

15 minutes ago, Captain Wiggles said:

 

Why tho? It's normally a process that takes less than five years. Obviously Ukraines situation isn't normal but twenty years to gain EU membership seems unreasonable. 

 

Yea, 10-15 years from what, though, now?

 

It doesn't look like Ukraine ever made an official "application":

 

https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/apr/14/ask-politifact-whats-ukraines-history-trying-join-/

 

Having said can't be rushing to get those Nordic countries in then back to dragging feet on Ukraine.  That sounds whack.

[Die Hard]

2 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Yea, 10-15 years from what, though, now?

 

It doesn't look like Ukraine ever made an official "application":

 

https://www.politifact.com/article/2022/apr/14/ask-politifact-whats-ukraines-history-trying-join-/

 

Having said can't be rushing to get those Nordic countries in then back to dragging feet on Ukraine.  That sounds whack.

Perhaps there’s a difference between NATO (for Sweden/Finland) and EU membership though.

Edited May 22, 2022 by Die Hard

[Renegade7]

9 minutes ago, Die Hard said:

Perhaps there’s a difference between NATO (for Sweden/Finland) and EU membership though.

 

I can see that, that started Feb this year:

 

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/ukraines-application-to-join-the-eu/

 

10-15 years...idk, man, still doesn't feel right...

 

Quote

How long does accession take?

Throughout the history of the EU, accession has taken different lengths of time for each country. The quickest to negotiate accession were Austria, Finland and Sweden, in just under two years, whereas it took Croatia just under eight years from the start of negotiations to becoming a member state.

 

On average, it takes just under five years from the opening of accession negotiations, but the timeframe depends on the ability of the candidate country to achieve the necessary domestic reforms, as well as the level of political will on all sides to see the process through.

 

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/how-new-member-states-join-the-eu-all-you-need-to-know/#:~:text=On average%2C it takes just,to see the process through.

 

Doesn't it feel like Ukraine is still being dragged along with respect to "fear of escalation with Russia" concerning NATO and even EU?

 

Edited May 22, 2022 by Renegade7

[Die Hard]

5 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

I can see that, that started Feb this year:

 

https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/ukraines-application-to-join-the-eu/

 

10-15 years...idk, man, still doesn't feel right...

 

 

https://ukandeu.ac.uk/explainers/how-new-member-states-join-the-eu-all-you-need-to-know/#:~:text=On average%2C it takes just,to see the process through.

 

Doesn't it feel like Ukraine is still being dragged along with respect to "fear of escalation with Russia" concerning NATO and even EU?

 

I literally have no idea of the scope of these types of political relationships. So my totally uneducated opinion would be that it does appear to be rather excessive.

 

Assuming of course, that what that gentleman is saying is true.

 

Perhaps there are good/legitimate reasons for it. But it seems like an incredibly slow and inflexible process…. in a globalized world that can change in a matter of weeks/months now.

 

And to your last point… I’ll say this. I don’t think big decisions like this are made in a vacuum. I’m sure there are many legitimate reasons… of which your suggestion is probably one. How is it prioritized compared to others? Who can say…. so much rhetoric. But it wouldn’t surprise me at all if it was up there in importance.

 

And the way things are going…. there’s no need. Of course, if things start changing… 

 

 

 

 

[China]