The Official ES (or E...C) 2022 Free Agency Thread Signed G Andrew Norwell, Obada, Trai Turner...Goodbye Scherff, Kyle Allen, Tim Settle

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Can't wait until next year to see who won this year's QB derby.

 

Tough call.  I like the move for Wentz.  But I won't pretend I don't like Matt Ryan, I think he's a good QB the question is IMO when does he start losing it at his age.  I am also OK with Baker, I read somewhere he's expected to go pretty cheaply in a trade.  From our standpoint, i'd be good with Wentz, Ryan, Baker for different reasons.  Wentz IMO with the highest ceiling of the three and Ryan with the highest floor.

 

I wasn't in love with Jimmy G.  Hated the idea the more I digested about Trubisky.  I was intrigued by Mariota and as Fa got closer Winston but didn't love either player.

 

I'll just place my bets on one thing, it won't be this guy.

 

 

 

Edited March 21, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Winston back to New Orleans on a 2/28 deal.

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I have this theory Ron is going to coach through 2023 and then move to "President" and Del Rio is going to take over as coach.  I'm not sure how much I love that plan.  But for some reason, that's been my thinking for about the past year.  

 

Maybe.  As you probably know, Sheehan has said he hears tha Del Rio is very involved in coaching the whole team where's he's sort of the defacto co-HC. 

 

 

 

[ExoDus84]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

I'm not sure about this. Matt Ryan is 36, and has a $48M cap hit this year. He's still a good QB, but the Colts getting him for only a 3rd isn't too crazy given the aforementioned circumstances. SF could probably get a 2nd rounder for Garoppolo based on his age and him having a much cheaper salary.

[wit33]

2 minutes ago, ExoDus84 said:

 

I'm not sure about this. Matt Ryan is 36, and has a $48M cap hit this year. He's still a good QB, but the Colts getting him for only a 3rd isn't too crazy given the aforementioned circumstances. SF could probably get a 2nd rounder for Garoppolo based on his age and him having a much cheaper salary.

23mil cap hit to the colts, Falcons absorb the rest. 

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, ExoDus84 said:

 

I'm not sure about this. Matt Ryan is 36, and has a $48M cap hit this year. He's still a good QB, but the Colts getting him for only a 3rd isn't too crazy given the aforementioned circumstances. SF could probably get a 2nd rounder for Garoppolo based on his age and him having a much cheaper salary.

 

The cap hit is primarily absorbed by the falcons.  Jimmy G IMO isn't as good as Ryan.  Jimmy is younger but is arguably the least durable starter in the league, he's an injury waiting to happen.

[RWJ]

2 hours ago, HigSkin said:

 

Listening to Keim talk this morning on The Junkies about the MLB position and it really sounds like they like a few guys in the draft.  Is it a big ask to start a rookie there?  Yup but Keim did mention that 2/5's of the roster was rookies last year. 

 

The MLB position is a little trickier given it's the QB of the Defense but sounds like they'd roll that dice.  Doesn't sound like Commanders want to pour a big contract in to an aging player for that position.  Maybe they pickup a lower cost FA vet. 

 

We'll see.

Appreciate the info as always, HigSkin both you and @Skinsinparadise   

[Bifflog]

20 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Wentz IMO with the highest ceiling of the three and Ryan with the highest floor.

 

I think this is also my assessment and why I like Wentz best of the three.

[ExoDus84]

9 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The cap hit is primarily absorbed by the falcons.  Jimmy G IMO isn't as good as Ryan.  Jimmy is younger but is arguably the least durable starter in the league, he's an injury waiting to happen.

 

Agree with all this.

 

I'm pissed the Watson deal threw the league into chaos. Had we not grabbed Wentz, we could have made a play for Ryan or Mayfield at a cheaper price than it cost to get Wentz. Ryan being a far more consistent player than Wentz, and Mayfield being younger and cheaper to trade for in draft capital.

 

We are Watson's 23rd assault victim. Can we join the class action lawsuit against him?

 

Edited March 21, 2022 by ExoDus84

[FootballZombie]

That's another solid move by the colts

 

They turned Wentz into Ryan, who will save them several million with a lower cap hit and picked up an extra draft pick next year from a trade w/ us in the process. They handled that well.

 

 

ATL out here eating like 40Mil in Dead cap. Just brutal

 

 

In all things equal fantasy world (contract, injury, acquisition cost) I can see the argument for Wentz but that changes a bit when you factor in the real world stuff like Ryan costing both less to acquire and less against the cap. Hard to argue with those resource savings.

 

 

[Bifflog]

3 minutes ago, ExoDus84 said:

 

Ryan being a far more consistent player than Wentz, and Mayfield being younger and cheaper to trade for in draft capital.

 

We are Watson's 23rd assault victim.

 

 

Let the record show that in 2021 Wentz bettered Ryan by 8 points in QBR, and Mayfield by 4 (...actually scratch that, it was Taylor Heinicke who bettered him by 4 😉)

Edited March 21, 2022 by Bifflog

[oraphus]

2 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

That's another solid move by the colts

 

They turned Wentz into Ryan, who will save them several million with a lower cap hit and picked up an extra draft pick next year from a trade w/ us in the process. They handled that well.

 

 

ATL out here eating like 40Mil in Dead cap. Just brutal

 

 

In all things equal fantasy world (contract, injury, acquisition cost) I can see the argument for Wentz but that changes a bit when you factor in the real world stuff like Ryan costing both less to acquire and less against the cap. Hard to argue with those resource savings.

 

 

cap hit is almost identical... in fact higher for Ryan

Ryan 24, 28mil

Wentz 28, 21, 20mil

[KillBill26]

9 minutes ago, oraphus said:

cap hit is almost identical... in fact higher for Ryan

Ryan 24, 28mil

Wentz 28, 21, 20mil

Last 2 years of Wentz are about 6 mil short due to roster bonuses, you just listed his base salary

[FootballZombie]

11 minutes ago, oraphus said:

cap hit is almost identical... in fact higher for Ryan

Ryan 24, 28mil

Wentz 28, 21, 20mil

 

I wouldn't say identical. ATL ate the G money on Ryans deal.

Colts are saving almost 4 Mil this year

 

Also Wentz year 2 n 3 cap hits are 26Mil and 27Mil

https://overthecap.com/player/carson-wentz/4715/

[CommanderInTheRye]

In an era when top qbs can play EFFECTIVELY into their 40s I'll take Matt Ryan over Carson Wentz and not look back ten out of ten times.

 

Ryan barring injury or retirement should be a playoff level qb and unquestioned high character team leader for at least 3 more years. Few head coaches are in a position to make decisions beyond that timeframe anyway. If they do they're likely just setting the table for their replacement.

 

That said, while I would prefer Ryan to Wentz that was never on the table. Ryan according to an NFL radio report wanted to go to the Colts.

 

I have no doubt that had we passed on the Wentz deal someone else would have traded for him.

 

Combined with the news that Mariotta is likely headed to Atlanta, that would leave us in the unenviable position of either:

 

1. going with a raw rookie in a weak draft class as our starting qb,

 

2. competing  for the remaining viable free agent starter, Jamis Winston, with our fingers crossed that he, unlike every other free agent qb, actually preferred us to his other options,

 

3. or trading for either an injured underachieving Garopollo, or an egotistical underachieving Baker Mayfield.

 

Sad options all.

 

Wentz, though far from the best choice, was the best choice realistically available to us.

 

 

 

Edited March 22, 2022 by CommanderInTheRye

[oraphus]

2 minutes ago, KillBill26 said:

Last 2 years of Wentz are about 6 mil short due to roster bonuses, you just listed his base salary

yes, you're right.. missed that part. Well.. we always knew Washington would have to overpay to convince any decent qb to come here

[Inigo Montoya]

Ryan had a no trade clause and needed to approve his destination... We literally chose the QB who couldn't turn us down. Thats where we are, we need miracles people 

[moboy36]

I believe Ryan is a lot less mobile, as well. That has to be factored in for scheme fit. 

[FlyBigBeard]

6 minutes ago, Inigo Montoya said:

Ryan had a no trade clause and needed to approve his destination... We literally chose the QB who couldn't turn us down. Thats where we are, we need miracles people 

He is 36 and on the decline, wouldnt want him anyways. Is he bad? no ..but definitely on the wrong side of his career. But on a side note, how bad is this QB draft class that everybody is scrambling to get a QB now before the draft haha 😔

[slinky]

obviously Julio will be getting a call from the Colts.

[profusion]

3 minutes ago, FlyBigBeard said:

He is 36 and on the decline, wouldnt want him anyways. Is he bad? no ..but definitely on the wrong side of his career. But on a side note, how bad is this QB draft class that everybody is scrambling to get a QB now before the draft haha 😔

 

I don't follow the draft much at all, but I can see the Colts or whichever team ends up with Garoppolo still trying to draft one of the top QBs as a prospect to sit for a year or two. The run-heavy QBs may need more time before they're NFL-ready.

[Skinsinparadise]

30 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

In an era when top qbs can play EFFECTIVELY into their 40s I'll take Matt Ryan over Carson Wentz and not look back ten out of ten times.

 

Ryan barring injury or retirement should be a playoff level qb and unquestioned high character team leader for at least 3 more years. Few head coaches are in a position to make decisions beyond that timeframe anyway? If they do they're likely just setting the table for their replacement.

 

That said, while I would prefer Ryan to Wentz that was never on the table. Ryan according to an NFL radio report wanted to go to the Colts.

 

I have no doubt that had we passed on the Wentz deal someone else would have traded for him.

 

Combined with the news that Mariotta is likely headed to Atlanta, that would leave us in the unenviable position of either:

 

1. going with a raw rookie in a weak draft class as our starting qb,

 

2. competing  for the remaining viable free agent starter, Jamis Winston, with our fingers crossed that he unlike every other free agent qb actually preferred us to his other options,

 

3. or trading for either an injured underachieving Garopollo, or an egotistical underachieving Baker Mayfield.

 

Sad options all.

 

Wentz, though far from the best choice, was the best choice realistically available to us.

 

 

My gut is they got wind that the Steelers were in play for Wentz and got nervous.  They were feeling a bit snake bitten for losing out on Wilson and wanted to make an irresitable offer for Wentz to avoid even engaging in a bidding war.

 

Do I think Ballard played them?  yes to an extent.  By that meaning I doubt the Steelers would have matched our offer.   But I do think they were bidding at a place of desperation considering this isn't a prime destination spot for players with equal choices where these players maintain their same existing contract, etc.  I think money is still the operative force in most deals as for where players are willing to go but in cases where the player is already under contract its a dfferent game.

 

For example, some say they'd have had no shot at Trubisky (don't get me wrong I am glad we didn't get him) because Pittsburgh wanted him.  My take is nonsense.  The Steelers didn't pay him much, if we paid him 3 million more he'd likely be a Commander. 

 

I am cool with Wentz.  Though I think I'd probably take Matt Ryan at that deal than i would the Wentz deal, too.  There are risks in both.  With Ryan IMO its age.  With Wentz IMO its primarily high variance play -- can he regain his consistency?  Ryan doesn't have the questions that Wentz has about leadershp but I think Wentz's leadership issues are way overstated.   But would we have landed Ryan?  Ryan said he wanted to go to Indy in part because its a win now roster.  I know Rivera is selling this team is win now, too -- but would Ryan believe that -- who knows?

Edited March 21, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[FootballZombie]

Winston got 21M G money on his 2 year 28 M deal.

 

That's a load for a guy coming off injury.

 

If I remember correctly he was slinging TDs before he got hurt. Maybe that eyesight correction paid off. The saints had him in house so they would have 1st person knowledge on that front.

 

If its evenly split, 14 Mil a year aint a bad number for him tho.

 

 

Mariota to falcons looks official

 

https://www.nfl.com/news/marcus-mariota-falcons-agree-to-terms-with-qb-on-two-year-deal

[88Comrade2000]

4 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Well, in a way, we were one of the first to make a big splash because we traded for Wentz, which if you look at the PFF improvement scale, at that point, put us second behind only Denver, who got Wilson, so that makes sense.  That actually held through the first couple of days of Free Agency.  I'm not sure where it stands now.

 

The big move was getting an NFL quality starting QB on the roster.  We didn't have one, now we do.  We'll see how it works out, but that was the big move which was desperately needed, and they made it.

 

After that, they re-signed a bunch of players they like (J.D. and Cam being the headliners.)  Sure, they let a few folks walk, the most obvious one being Scherff.  I maintain there is NO WAY you should pay a guard, especially one who misses 1/4 of the games, $16.5M/Y.  That was expected, and not unreasonable.   Ricky Seals-Jones probably will get more playing time with the NYG.  

 

The one thing which is very interesting, and I think they'd probably like to have back, is they lost Settle and then cut Matty Ioannidis.  I'm not crying over cutting MI like some are.  But they definitely opened up a new need for depth at DT.  But they can find that in the middle rounds of the draft, and I'm sure they will sign a guy, maybe multiple guys, in FA eventually.

 

Look, the way they see their roster, they have a mix of up-and-coming stars (who will need to be paid in the next 2-3 years), and depth, and a few holes to fill:

 

1. They just CAN'T go out and spend big money on another WR until they have locked up Terry.  They signed Samuel last year.  They get to see him as much as they want to, I'm assuming since a) they're not idiots and b) Samuel is in the building, if his recovery had stalled, or he had a setback, they would have been more aggressive at WR because they know they can't count on Samuel.  However, the fact they haven't been indicates they are comfortable with where he is, and they have the opportunity to draft a really good WR in a draft that is deep at WR.

 

2.  They aren't going to sign any of the DL/Edge guys.  They want to extend Payne, and then Sweat is going to be up next.  Then Young.  

 

3. They made a move at OL.  There will be more moves to be made.  But you can find depth at OL if you're good at it, and this group has proven they deserve the benefit of the doubt at OL.  NOTE: Re-signing the backup swing tackle (Leno or Lucas, whichever it is), would be a huge depth move.  The reporting is they want to.  That would basically mean they have to find a swing guard somewhere to be a backup.

 

4. I think they're completely gun-shy about screwing with the secondary because they completely screwed around with it last year, and completely broke it. And it took half a season to fix.  So my feeling going into this off-season was they were going to shoot for consistency.  They re-signed McCain.  They have St. Juice coming back from injury.  They will add depth pieces, and they need a buffalo nickel with Landon's departure.  But you don't have to get those guys in the first week of FA.

 

5. They have a HUGE open need at MLB.  They know that, we know that, everybody knows that.  They're going to have to address it.  We'll see how the market develops.  But there are still good players out there, and it's  deep draft.  This is a spot they could have been aggressive, but have chosen to be patient.  I'm ok with it.  I would have been ok if they were aggressive also.  

 

Look, they believe their success is going to rest on the backs of the following players, and these players have to contribute. Some have been. Others have to step the eff up.  This is the "poop or get off the toilet" season for some of these guys:

 

- Wentz

- McLaurin

- Samuel

- Gibson

- J.D. McKissic

- Logan Thomas (when return from ACL)

- OL in general

- Chase Young

- Montez Sweat

- Jon Allen

- Daron Payne

- Kendall Fuller

- WJIII

- Cam Kurl

- Some combination of Holcomb/Davis on the outside.  

 

They went into this year knowing THOSE (Minus Wentz who they added) players were going to be the key to success in 2023.  

 

They basically are trying to run-back 2022 with competent QB play and some better injury luck.  They feel, have said, and have statistical proof they had some of the absolute worst QB play in the league the last 2 years.  And they have won 7 games in each year mostly in spite of it.  They also had a disproportionate amount of injuries on offense last year. 

 

They are betting Wentz + this team = 11 wins, a 4 game improvement over last year.  They haven't said it out-loud, but they don't have to.  Ron has said repeatedly he believes the roster is in a place to win.  He put that pressure on himself.  They KNEW they didn't have a starting QB on the roster, and literally told everybody who was paying attention this for the last 2.5 months, so they HAD to go out and find one somewhere.  They did.  

 

Then they didn't go bananas in FA. If you look at the actions, that's what the actions are telling you: they think they had the chance to compete last year with Fitz. When Fitz got hurt after 16 plays, their chances diminished significantly.  When Samuel didn't play the entire year, that hurt them.  I think they have also been self aware that they broke the defense.  They mostly got it fixed in the middle of the year.  Then the COVID outbreak crushed everything.  

 

They think they have a roster that can win now with better QB play.  I agree to an extent.  I think they have a huge hole at MLB (as I mentioned earlier), so I'm interested to see how they fill it.

 

But otherwise, the improvement is going to come from the guys who were already here.  THAT'S the bet they're placing.  If it doesn't work out, they're probably all going to be gone after 2023.  They're betting they can get the defense to a top-10 level with what they've got, they're betting they can get the offense humming with better QB play.  

 

I also think they WILL swing big (and possibly connect) if they can get an 11 win season and a strong playoff showing.  That's kindof what the Rams did.  They made some moves in McVay's first year, but not a ton.  They went (I think) 11-5.  Got to the playoffs.  Then they REALLY started attacking success.  It's good to have a base of success to build off of.  They don't have that yet.  They need that double-digit winning season, and then they can REALLY market it and go after the top-end guys to put them over the top.

11 wins might be to much to ask this year. Dan has never had 11 regular season wins.

[CommanderInTheRye]

23 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

My gut is they got wind that the Steelers were in play for Wentz and got nervous.  They were feeling a bit snake bitten for losing out on Wilson and wanted to make an irresitable offer for Wentz to avoid even engaging in a bidding war.

 

Do I think Ballard played them?  yes to an extent.  By that meaning I doubt the Steelers would have matched our offer.   But I do think they were bidding at a place of desperation considering this isn't a prime destination spot for players with equal choices where these players maintain their same existing contract, etc.  I think money is still the operative force in most deals as for where players are willing to go but in cases where the player is already under contract.

 

For example, some say they'd have had no shot at Trubisky (don't get me wrong I am glad we didn't get him) because Pittsburgh wanted him.  My take is nonsense.  The Steelers didn't pay him much, if we paid him 3 million more he'd likely be a Commander. 

 

I think I'd probably take Matt Ryan at that deal than i would the Wentz deal, too.  There are risks in both.  With Ryan IMO its age.  With Wentz IMO its primarily high variance play -- can he regain his consistency?  Ryan doesn't have the questions than Wentz has about leadershp but I think Wentz's leadership issues are way overstated.   But would we have landed Ryan?  Ryan said he wanted to go to Indy in part because its a win now roster.  I know Rivera is selling this team is win now, too -- but would Ryan believe that -- who knows?

 

 

SKiP wrote: I think I'd probably take Matt Ryan at that deal than i would the Wentz deal, too.  There are risks in both.  With Ryan IMO its age.  With Wentz IMO its primarily high variance play -- can he regain his consistency? 

 

Agreed.

 

SKiP wrote: "Ryan doesn't have the questions than Wentz has about leadershp but I think Wentz's leadership issues are way overstated."

 

I think and hope you're right.

 

It certainly seems that there are more people openly lauding Wentz's leadership last year than those willing to openly denigrate it.

 

SKiP wrote: "But would we have landed Ryan?  Ryan said he wanted to go to Indy in part because its a win now roster.  I know Rivera is selling this team is win now, too -- but would Ryan believe that..."

 

I think this is the key to every move we have made this off season.

 

Simply put, (most) players don't want to come here if they have any control whatsoever over where they play.

 

This is why we absolutely had to go for Wentz when we did. He was the best available qb without a no trade clause in his contract and thus the Colts could ship him here, to the Siberia of the NFL, with impunity.

 

It's also btw the reason we sign so many Panthers players. They choose to come here because they know and are comfortable with Ron and our assistant coaches and they trust that he will do right by them.

 

Imagine where we would be without the "Carolina Commander" contingent bulstering our roster.

 

In the long run Ron has to make this place attractive to players who only know us as the "can't get it right, clown show, organization."

 

That will only come if we find a way to win consistently.

 

 

 

Edited March 21, 2022 by CommanderInTheRye