Game Day Thread - Rouge 4 at The Death Star

[Wildbunny]

4 hours ago, mistertim said:

I mentioned this earlier in this thread. A "pound the rock, control the clock, stingy defense" game plan in today's NFL really only has 3 outcomes for the most part, and 2 of them are losses.

I remember a famous HC saying that 3 things can happen when you throw the ball, and two of them are bad.

 

Basically, there's pros and cons for both things. There's no clear cut formula that works for everyone, besides having Tom Brady and Bellichick. And even that point is arguable with all the cheating stuff that have leaked from the Pats during those years. Playing dink and dunk 4 yards forward pass all day long can be boring and "stagnant" as well.

 

The best formula is the one that gets your team W. And that's all that matters at the end of the day.

 

4 hours ago, mistertim said:

1) Your defense plays well and you win a very close game.

2) Your defense plays well and you lose a very close game.

3) Your defense plays poorly and you lose in a blowout.

You can have more or less the same with an offensive juggernaut. a very close game can be 15-13, but also 41-40...

[goskins10]

This is hilarious - nonstop whining. And not sure what game he was watching. Got so much wrong. Got it totally backwards - said our Oline shut the pass rush down.... lol  Not. Said our secondary was trash - Not!  lol  Whined about the PI non-call. He was looking back for the ball. Yea he had a little jersey but that is allowed as it did not interfere with his route. Ball hit him in the hands. Complained about the refs all the way through. Typical raider whining. I love it!!  

 

 

[Chris 44]

11 hours ago, Burgold said:

I wonder who we will get back. I think part of the reason for our low scores has to be that we keep getting our weapons hurt. There were quite a few third downs which would have normally been McKissic downs today. We never really have gotten Thomas or Samuel this year. Good to see Curtis make it through another game. Hopefully, he gets his game legs under him and becomes a threat.

Also all the turmoil along the O line hasn't helped (though all considering they have done well).

[method man]

32 minutes ago, Chris 44 said:

Also all the turmoil along the O line hasn't helped (though all considering they have done well).

Yep. It would really help if they can get Schweitzer or Larsen, McKissic and RSJ back next week. While he doesn’t have the leaping ability or hands of Thomas, I do feel RSJ can play a good move TE to Bates’s inline TE

[CTskin]

1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

 

This says we are 29th in terms of TDs - NFL Football Stats - NFL Team Red Zone Scoring Percentage (TD only) | TeamRankings.com

 

It may get a little better when you include FGs but that is not good. 

Hm idk if yours is more current of mine. I have us in 13th at 62.5%
https://flurrysports.org/nfl-stats-team-red-zone/

Edited December 6, 2021 by CTskin

[goskins10]

33 minutes ago, CTskin said:

Hm idk if yours is more current of mine. I have us in 13th at 62.5%
https://flurrysports.org/nfl-stats-team-red-zone/

 

For TDs only or including FGs? Mine was TDs only and is a little dated - Nov 22nd. But it did not get that much better in the last 2 weeks scoring only 17 pts each game. 

 

And I am not happy with that many FGs. You eventually lose those games. You have to agree we are not scoring TDs like we should. We should have won that game going away yesterday. But the Off kept stalling. In fairness we were not getting to the RZ much but that is also a problem. 

 

I like Taylor's moxie and his never say die attitude. That last drive was excellent. But if we are being honest, he took a step back yesterday in terms of development. Several of his passes were dangerously high. He was slinging it off his back foot as the game went on - should have gotten picked several times. And he held the ball too long. We got the W and damn glad of it. IMO Taylor was both a major why we won but also a major reason why it was such a close game. 

 

I expect him to self scout and get those things back under control. Dallas D is just not that good. But we cannot throw everything 20 yds or less and expect to win unless we play literally perfect otherwise. Yesterday mid-field negative plays and bad penalties cost us drives. And thier off is still very explosive. It will take at least 24 to 27 pts. 

 

Not having McKissick (sp?) really hurt. Was hoping Samuel would pick up that slack. But he did not. Now Thomas will be out again. Ismael did good as a back-up but the oline didn't have thier finest game either. Taylor was under more pressure than he has been. Some of that was they sold out on the run and short passes. We need to figure out a way to challenge teams down the field. If not, this little ride may come to an abrupt end. 

 

Edit: Let me add, good teams win when they don't have their best game. We did that yesterday. So from that standpoint it was a good test. Also, it was a short week, across country against a team with extra rest, we were missing several key players and still managed a W. That is how you become a winning team., But they have to fix some of these issues or it will end quickly. 

 

Edited December 6, 2021 by goskins10

[CTskin]

6 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

For TDs only or including FGs? Mine was TDs only and is a little dated - Nov 22nd. But it did not get that much better in the last 2 weeks scoring only 17 pts each game. 

 

And I am not happy with that many FGs. You eventually lose those games. You have to agree we are not scoring TDs like we should. We should have won that game going away yesterday. But the Off kept stalling. In fairness we were not getting to the RZ much but that is also a problem. 

 

I like Taylor's moxie and his never say die attitude. That last drive was excellent. But if we are being honest, he took a step back yesterday in terms of development. Several of his passes were dangerously high. He was slinging it off his back foot as the game went on - should have gotten picked several times. And he held the ball too long. We got the W and damn glad of it. IMO Taylor was both a major why we won but also a major reason why it was such a close game. 

 

I expect him to self scout and get those things back under control. Dallas D is just not that good. But we cannot throw everything 20 yds or less and expect to win unless we play literally perfect otherwise. Yesterday mid-field negative plays and bad penalties cost us drives. And thier off is still very explosive. It will take at least 24 to 27 pts. 

 

Not having McKissick (sp?) really hurt. Was hoping Samuel would pick up that slack. But he did not. Now Thomas will be out again. Ismael did good as a back-up but the oline didn't have thier finest game either. Taylor was under more pressure than he has been. Some of that was they sold out on the run and short passes. We need to figure out a way to challenge teams down the field. If not, this little ride may come to an abrupt end. 

 

Edit: Let me add, good teams win when they don't have their best game. We did that yesterday. So from that standpoint it was a good test. Also, it was a short week, across country against a team with extra rest, we were missing several key players and still managed a W. That is how you become a winning team., But they have to fix some of these issues or it will end quickly. 

 

Mine was only filtered by TDs. When taking into account FGs we’re top 10, but I’m with you, I don’t like red zone FGs.

 

point is we’re average at worst in red zone performance.

[goskins10]

2 minutes ago, CTskin said:

Mine was only filtered by TDs. When taking into account FGs we’re top 10, but I’m with you, I don’t like red zone FGs.

 

point is we’re average at worst in red zone performance.

 

I just looked again and my data includes yesterday and we are 29th so I do not agree we are middle of the pack. One of them is not correct. I will try to find a 3rd source to compare.

[Thinking Skins]

I haven't read through this thread too much over the last 18 hours or so but I will just pose a question. It seems like there is a difference in philosophy or skillsets of the team right now. We seemed to go all in on speed in the offseason. Maybe that was in prep for Fitz and not TH, but it is what it is. So now that Heinicke is the starter, one of the things that we constantly see is that he throws balls high. Now, he does seem to hit guys a lot more now (completing more than 70 % of passes in 4 straight games) but I wonder if he would do better with his bigger guys at WR. I'm talking Cam Sims, AGG, and guys like that? Right now we have TMac, Samuel, Carter and Humphres who are playing well and Humphres did extremely well on that last drive but I wonder if we could get more with a guy like Sims (who I trust more than AGG) getting more play?

[CTskin]

12 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

I just looked again and my data includes yesterday and we are 29th so I do not agree we are middle of the pack. One of them is not correct. I will try to find a 3rd source to compare.

10-4. I don’t think this is cherry picking but looking back since the bye when the team seems to have picked it up, I’d highly doubt we’re bottom of the pack in red zone TD %.
 

I have no stat to back this up as it seems to be an elusive one, but I’m certainly not feeling like we’re constantly settling for FGs or turning it over in the RZ.

 

the thing is that turners offense is a lumbering one, so we’ll have the ball for 4+ minutes, pick up three 1st downs, yet come away with no points… I feel that a lot more than RZ inefficiency.

[mistertim]

2 hours ago, CTskin said:

Where are you getting your red zone stats? Everything I see is that we’re above avg in the RZ… 

 

the fact that you use words like “horrid” when we’re statistically good says a lot…

 

They actually put it up during the game. I don't remember the exact percentage but we were 31st in the NFL in red zone TD scoring efficiency. 

[KDawg]

5 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

They actually put it up during the game. I don't remember the exact percentage but we were 31st in the NFL in red zone TD scoring efficiency. 

 

I think this is a product of not having a back with excellent first line vision and a bruiser who can gain tough yards.

 

Gibson can play the role but gets worn down. And he doesn't have that first line vision. Gibson's vision is in the open field. He is incredible once he breaks the LoS. He is not so great finding that first lane all the time. We get a back that can find that and power forward and it changes things.

 

McKissick has that first line and open field vision. But he isn't big and won't be able to handle the load any better than Gibson.

 

Plus our red zone target, Logan Thomas, has mostly been not playing this year and McLaurin is getting a ton of attention. A bigger target wouldn't hurt us.

 

A small part is probably on Heinicke's arm strength not being able to fit the ball in very tight windows, either. But I'd say that's a small share versus the other aspects.

[Inigo Montoya]

I think it’s really important to look at the last 4 games differently than earlier this year. 
much better off efficiency on 3rd downs and in the RZ the same with D, significantly better on 3rd downs and scoring 

 

saw a tweet but can’t remember who where they posted that info

 

Found it

[NewCliche21]

15 hours ago, PartyPosse said:

Don’t some of you get tired of just being like this? It’s ****ing stupid.

 

Yes, I'm very tired of it.  I love being wrong, though.

Glad that after a victory THIS is your focus.  High fives on that.

41 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I haven't read through this thread too much over the last 18 hours or so but I will just pose a question. It seems like there is a difference in philosophy or skillsets of the team right now. We seemed to go all in on speed in the offseason. Maybe that was in prep for Fitz and not TH, but it is what it is. So now that Heinicke is the starter, one of the things that we constantly see is that he throws balls high. Now, he does seem to hit guys a lot more now (completing more than 70 % of passes in 4 straight games) but I wonder if he would do better with his bigger guys at WR. I'm talking Cam Sims, AGG, and guys like that? Right now we have TMac, Samuel, Carter and Humphres who are playing well and Humphres did extremely well on that last drive but I wonder if we could get more with a guy like Sims (who I trust more than AGG) getting more play?

 

I don't even know if you can put Samuel in that list.  He's like our fourth running back after Gibson, McKissic, and Patterson/Smallwood.

[Thinking Skins]

So I was just listening to some grades of Heinicke and was thinking about his play on third downs. I was telling people on twitter about how coaches need to trust him more and here's a look at what I'm talking about. 

 

1    14:25    1    10    WAS 47    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short left to John Bates for 23 yards (tackle by Trevon Moehrig)    0    0    2.060    3.580
1    13:06    2    9    LVR 29    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short right to Curtis Samuel for -1 yards (tackle by Johnathan Abram)    0    0    3.170    2.340
1    12:22    3    10    LVR 30    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short left to Terry McLaurin for 13 yards    0    0    2.340    4.440
1    11:44    1    10    LVR 17    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short right to Dyami Brown for 6 yards (tackle by Johnathan Abram and Denzel Perryman)    0    0    4.440    4.890
1    6:14    1    10    WAS 10    Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete short middle intended for Antonio Gibson (defended by Johnathan Abram)    7    0    -0.380    -0.780
1    5:38    1    10    WAS 26    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short left to Terry McLaurin for 4 yards (tackle by Cory Littleton and Brandon Facyson)    7    0    0.670    0.670
1    0:47    3    2    WAS 32    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short left to DeAndre Carter for 6 yards (tackle by Denzel Perryman)    7    0    0.370    1.470
1    0:20    1    10    WAS 38    Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete short right intended for John Bates    7    0    1.470    0.920
2    15:00    3    8    WAS 40    Taylor Heinicke scrambles right end for 4 yards (tackle by Maxx Crosby)    7    0    0.500    -0.460
2    7:10    2    9    WAS 11    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short middle to Terry McLaurin for 5 yards (tackle by Brandon Facyson)    7    0    -0.710    -0.720
2    6:29    3    4    WAS 16    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short right to Adam Humphries for 6 yards (tackle by Casey Hayward)    7    0    -0.720    0.410
2    5:47    1    10    WAS 22    Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete deep right intended for Logan Thomas    7    0    0.410    -0.130
2    5:38    2    10    WAS 22    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short middle to Antonio Gibson for no gain (tackle by Nate Hobbs and Denzel Perryman). Penalty on Brandon Facyson: Defensive Holding, 5 yards (accepted) (no play)    7    0    -0.130    0.740
2    3:29    2    14    WAS 37    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short middle to Wendell Smallwood for 5 yards (tackle by K.J. Wright and Nate Hobbs)    7    0    0.580    0.560
2    2:51    3    9    WAS 42    Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete deep right intended for Adam Humphries. Penalty on Maxx Crosby: Roughing the Passer, 15 yards (accepted) (no play)    7    0    0.560    2.720
2    2:00    2    13    LVR 46    Taylor Heinicke sacked by Malcolm Koonce for -10 yards    7    0    1.770    -0.230
2    0:04    1    10    WAS 25    Taylor Heinicke kneels for -1 yards    7    3    0.610    -0.070
3    10:35    3    5    WAS 28    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short left to Logan Thomas for 6 yards (tackle by Denzel Perryman)    7    3    -0.100    1.200
3    9:29    1    15    WAS 29    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short middle to Antonio Gibson for no gain (tackle by Divine Deablo and Nate Hobbs)    7    3    0.870    -0.020
3    8:46    2    15    WAS 29    Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete short middle intended for Terry McLaurin (defended by Casey Hayward)    7    3    -0.020    -0.690
3    8:39    3    15    WAS 29    Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete deep left intended for Logan Thomas    7    3    -0.690    -1.440
3    4:52    1    10    WAS 25    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short middle to Antonio Gibson for 10 yards (tackle by Denzel Perryman)    7    6    0.610    1.270
3    3:37    1    20    WAS 25    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short right to John Bates for -1 yards (tackle by Johnathan Abram). Penalty on Johnathan Abram: Low Block, 15 yards (accepted) (no play)    7    6    0.610    1.600
3    2:55    2    10    WAS 40    Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete short left intended for Terry McLaurin. Penalty on Brandon Facyson: Defensive Holding, 5 yards (accepted) (no play)    7    6    1.050    1.930
3    2:39    1    10    WAS 45    Taylor Heinicke pass complete deep left to Logan Thomas for 35 yards (tackle by Divine Deablo)    7    6    1.930    4.240
3    1:17    2    16    LVR 26    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short middle to Adam Humphries for 10 yards (tackle by Nate Hobbs)    7    6    2.880    3.520
3    0:35    3    6    LVR 16    Taylor Heinicke scrambles left tackle for 7 yards (tackle by Trevon Moehrig)    7    6    3.520    5.140
4    14:23    2    7    LVR 7    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short right to Antonio Gibson for 3 yards (tackle by K.J. Wright and Clelin Ferrell)    7    6    4.760    4.490
4    13:34    3    4    LVR 4    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short right to Antonio Gibson for 4 yards, touchdown    13    6    4.490    7.000
4    10:30    2    7    WAS 23    Taylor Heinicke left end for no gain (tackle by Divine Deablo). Penalty on Yannick Ngakoue: Defensive Offside, 5 yards (accepted) (no play)    14    12    0.140    0.810
4    9:10    2    9    WAS 37    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short middle to John Bates for 10 yards (tackle by Divine Deablo and Johnathan Abram)    14    12    0.930    2.060
4    7:04    3    4    LVR 47    Taylor Heinicke pass deep right (defended by Maxx Crosby) intended for Terry McLaurin is intercepted by Nate Hobbs at LV-30 and returned for 9 yards (tackle by John Bates and Adam Humphries)    14    12    1.620    -1.530
4    2:22    1    10    WAS 25    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short right to John Bates for 9 yards (tackle by Nate Hobbs)    14    15    0.610    1.280
4    1:38    1    10    WAS 38    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short right to Adam Humphries for 10 yards (tackle by Trevon Moehrig)    14    15    1.470    2.130
4    1:08    1    10    WAS 48    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short left to Adam Humphries for 12 yards (tackle by Casey Hayward)    14    15    2.130    2.920
4    0:59    1    10    LVR 40    Taylor Heinicke pass incomplete short right intended for Adam Humphries (defended by Trevon Moehrig)    14    15    2.920    2.370

 

 

He was directly responsible for 6 first downs and a TD on third downs. That was some impressive play. Sure he made the mistake of a Pic when his hand was hit but this guy played well yesterday
4    0:53    2    10    LVR 40    Taylor Heinicke pass complete short left to Antonio Gibson for 6 yards (tackle by Solomon Thomas and Divine Deablo)    14    15    2.370    2.480
 

[NewCliche21]

15 hours ago, PartyPosse said:

Hopefully winning 4 games in a row will at least condition some of you to not declare a game already over if we go three and out on a drive next Sunday.

 

Bro you are NOT new to this board.  It's the Gameday Thread.  This is how it rolls.

Don't go to a Nickelback concert and then **** about the ****ty music.  You knew what you were getting into.

[mistertim]

2 hours ago, Wildbunny said:

 

You can have more or less the same with an offensive juggernaut. a very close game can be 15-13, but also 41-40...

 

Sure, with a potent offense you can still have some of the same results, but you also have a wider number of outcomes.

 

With a pound the rock, control the clock, stingy defense plan you're most likely not going to be a high scoring offense, unless you're up against a really awful defense that you can just gash the whole game. If your defense isn't playing well you're likely in trouble because you're not built for shootouts. So that basically takes that possibility off the table. With a potent offense you can at least keep up if your defense isn't playing well.

 

I think in the 80s and 90s for the most part the standard template for building teams was that running and ball control concept, so usually teams were kind of on the same page. I think that was partially just the philosophy then and partially because the rules were more favorable for that kind of game.

 

Over time it's become much more of a passing centric league with high powered attacks and a top passing QB being the primary ideal template that most teams lean towards. So if you have a pound the rock, control the clock, stingy defense mindset, you're mostly an outlier. That doesn't mean it can't ever work, but it's much harder nowadays because the game simply isn't geared towards it anymore.

[NewCliche21]

15 hours ago, PartyPosse said:

Where are all the doomsdayers who needed to talk about how the game was over and we lost and blah blah.

 

Own it for once.

 

Jesus, man.  How many versions of this post did you make?  Right after the game ended?

Why can't you just enjoy a win MINUTES after it happens rather than try to **** all over other fans?  Are you at the game pointing at fans who are pissed off about a play and then coming up to them after the game to say "SEE I AM SO MUCH BETTER OF A FAN THAN YOU NEVER DOUBT OUR TEAM YOU SUCK I AM THE BEST" ?  Then don't do it on a message board.  Where you are not new.  And know what these threads are.

Man do you know how to rain on a parade.  You sure you didn't mean "Pooper" instead of "Posse"?

[Thinking Skins]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

With a pound the rock, control the clock, stingy defense plan you're most likely not going to be a high scoring offense, unless you're up against a really awful defense that you can just gash the whole game. If your defense isn't playing well you're likely in trouble because you're not built for shootouts. So that basically takes that possibility off the table. With a potent offense you can at least keep up if your defense isn't playing well.

 

The thing about a ball control offense is that that's not all it is. Look at Tennessee when they beat Buffalo last year 42-16, or Indy 45-26. Its not that I think we're on that level with Tennessee but they are the model of what I think we're trying to become. And the thing is they weren't this dominant offense with Mariota but they were still putting up 9-7 type seasons and scoring 30+

[AJ*]

3 minutes ago, NewCliche21 said:

 

Jesus, man.  How many versions of this post did you make?  Right after the game ended?

Why can't you just enjoy a win MINUTES after it happens rather than try to **** all over other fans?  Are you at the game pointing at fans who are pissed off about a play and then coming up to them after the game to say "SEE I AM SO MUCH BETTER OF A FAN THAN YOU NEVER DOUBT OUR TEAM YOU SUCK I AM THE BEST" ?  Then don't do it on a message board.  Where you are not new.  And know what these threads are.

Man do you know how to rain on a parade.  You sure you didn't mean "Pooper" instead of "Posse"?

 

Honestly, he's right. The doomsayers get insufferable with their constant whining when one thing goes wrong.

[mistertim]

14 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

The thing about a ball control offense is that that's not all it is. Look at Tennessee when they beat Buffalo last year 42-16, or Indy 45-26. Its not that I think we're on that level with Tennessee but they are the model of what I think we're trying to become. And the thing is they weren't this dominant offense with Mariota but they were still putting up 9-7 type seasons and scoring 30+

 

I think Tennessee is an outlier because they have an absolutely dominant All-Pro RB who's borderline unstoppable. But they also have a QB who's having a down year right now but who has been close to a top 10 guy the last couple of seasons. So they can pound the ball and there's almost nothing you can do about it, but if you decide to put all of your resources into stopping Henry, they have the QB and firepower to go big through the air as well.

 

So yes, I'd absolutely love to have Derrick Henry and a top 10 QB. But we don't have that.

 

13 minutes ago, AJ* said:

 

Honestly, he's right. The doomsayers get insufferable with their constant whining when one thing goes wrong.

 

But @NewCliche21is right as well. It's a gameday thread. Those things are their own animals and are the equivalent of having a week long drug and booze bender with lots of poor decisions and the resulting highs and lows of the whole thing crammed into 3 hours.

 

Pointing to tons of things said during a gameday thread is sort of like pointing out really stupid things you did when you were drunk. It doesn't change them and you probably regret it anyway so there's no use in piling on.

Edited December 6, 2021 by mistertim

[NewCliche21]

14 minutes ago, AJ* said:

 

Honestly, he's right. The doomsayers get insufferable with their constant whining when one thing goes wrong.

 

Then don't come in the Gameday Thread.  My analogy about going to a Nickelback concert and being shocked at the ****ty music is dead on. 

When fans start going off about other fans, you're not being a fan, you're being an asshole.

[primetime441]

18 hours ago, primetime441 said:

Nice to have Logan back!

 

This didn't age well 🤦‍♂️

[London Kev]

I'm not trying to pile on to PartyPosse, I'm just giving my take.

 

I absolutely love the gameday thread. I love the hyperbole, the over-reactions, the doom-and-gloom, and the Koolaid drinking.

 

I've said this before, but for me it's just like getting drunk with a bunch of mates where you can say exactly what's on your mind in the moment and no one cares. Everyone thinks they know more than the coach, everyone would have made the play better than the players and all of the refs are ****s. Most of it is just bull**** and at the end of the day no one cares or takes it personally.

 

I'm glad that the mods appear to be more forgiving in here (and often join in with the bull****ting 😀). I hope it never changes.

 

As others have said: if you don't like it, don't click on the thread.

[petey hodge]

11 hours ago, NickyJ said:

Maybe it's about David and Goliath? It's a shame nobody around here has any theories on it. 🙃

 

We all know this...  David was a middle-of-the-pack farmboy from a Division 1AA Israelite program.  His noodle arm was not Philistine-championship level with his rock-sling speeds (to the sidelines) not having enough pace and often sails the rocks too high.

 

Basically, David is a fluke and everyone who got excited about this upset win over Goliath is either silly or just plain dumb.

 

 

Edited December 6, 2021 by petey hodge