The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[MartinC]

11 hours ago, NoCalMike said:

I don't know what Wentz's ceiling can be from this point forward. Honestly. Do I think he is ever going to be the would-be MVP again? Most likely not, but there is a lot of space between that and what we got from TH on his best days.  

 

His ceiling is MVP type play. The problem with Wentz is that he is so inconsistent - from play to play. His floor is below replacement level. He averages out as a top 15 type QB but the journey to that average is going to have us pulling our hair out at times. And some of us don't have the hair to spare.

 

He is going to make throws that we have not seen a Washington QB make in many many years. Good AND bad!

[Burgold]

23 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

His ceiling is MVP type play. The problem with Wentz is that he is so inconsistent - from play to play. His floor is below replacement level. He averages out as a top 15 type QB but the journey to that average is going to have us pulling our hair out at times. And some of us don't have the hair to spare.

 

He is going to make throws that we have not seen a Washington QB make in many many years. Good AND bad!

I think that's fair. The question on his floor is how much of that perception is due to having consistently inferior supporting casts. We noticed with Heinike against poor defenses how he looked good, but against pressures and good tight coverage, and how because the only healthy receiver we had was McClaurin his latter performances suffered. 

 

Wentz is obviously more physically talented, but a good QB will look bad if he faces unending pressure or if his receivers fail to get open.

[goskins10]

30 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

His ceiling is MVP type play. The problem with Wentz is that he is so inconsistent - from play to play. His floor is below replacement level. He averages out as a top 15 type QB but the journey to that average is going to have us pulling our hair out at times. And some of us don't have the hair to spare.

 

He is going to make throws that we have not seen a Washington QB make in many many years. Good AND bad!

 

That has been and will continue to be my main concern abotu Wentz. I said ti from the time he was in Philly. There is a point to be made that a better supporting cast, especially WRs can help with that a-lot. They will find a way to bring in some balls that otherwise turn into incompletions. 

 

I 100% agree he will make some breathtaking throws both good and horribly bad. If he can limit the bad to a manageable level (7 ints last yr suggest he has come a long way) then he could be a really good QB for the team. 

[mistertim]

I don't really have high hopes of Wentz suddenly becoming a consistent QB...he sort of is who he is. But at least he can potentially help give us an offense that can take shots and put up points.

 

I'd rather have the chance of going toe to toe in a shootout while accepting some inconsistent play than have to struggle through trying to win by 3 points in low scoring games every week.

[goskins10]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

I don't really have high hopes of Wentz suddenly becoming a consistent QB...he sort of is who he is. But at least he can potentially help give us an offense that can take shots and put up points.

 

I'd rather have the chance of going toe to toe in a shootout while accepting some inconsistent play than have to struggle through trying to win by 3 points in low scoring games every week.

 

I have no delusions he suddenly becomes Mr. consistency. However, all he has to do is cut the WTF throws in half while still producing the other throws at the same rate and he will give us a chance in every game. Hell even P Manning had his bad days - throw 4 picks in one game a few times. Not directed at you, but before people descend like vultures, I am in no way comparing or confusing Wentz with Manning. Just saying that bad passes are going to happen. Just can they be limited and better timing - meaning less costly parts of the game. 

 

to that end i think better weapons will help him. Should be fun to watch either way. 

[skinny21]

My hope for Wentz, aside from the ceiling he’s shown, stems from a few things - the hope this offense (and Turner’s play calling) is a good fit for him, that there’s a solid/good supporting cast in place, his words about pressing and taking what’s there (one of his major issues/criticisms), and his offseason work with Kurt Warner (loved his video breakdown of Wentz’s play).

 

My concern though is that it’s so easy to revert to type once the bullets start flying, and that becomes even more likely with this being his first new system (to my understanding) in quite a while.  And on top of that, this could be exacerbated by the pressure he’s been under to perform - he’s got a lot of people to prove wrong, and if he fails, this may be his last chance at being handed a starting gig on a silver platter.

 

 

On a side note, it never dawned on me how trivial the difference is between a completion percentage of 62 and 65.  Not even one more (or one fewer) completion per game.  62 vs 67 is less than a 2 completions per game differential - more like 1 and a quarter/third (depending on if you’re talking about 16 games vs 17)

[88Comrade2000]

Maybe Ballad should concentrateon finding a long term qb 6 starting QBs in 6 years Isn't good. Maybe  you get one more year out of Ryan.

[Koolblue13]

Wentz is a lot like Farve. We've put every possible weapon around him, including a great ground game that he can lean on when he's off.

[mistertim]

14 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

I have no delusions he suddenly becomes Mr. consistency. However, all he has to do is cut the WTF throws in half while still producing the other throws at the same rate and he will give us a chance in every game. Hell even P Manning had his bad days - throw 4 picks in one game a few times. Not directed at you, but before people descend like vultures, I am in no way comparing or confusing Wentz with Manning. Just saying that bad passes are going to happen. Just can they be limited and better timing - meaning less costly parts of the game. 

 

to that end i think better weapons will help him. Should be fun to watch either way. 

 

Thing is...I think the WTF throws are just part of his makeup. I'm not sure you could cut those back a lot without cutting back the great throws he makes. As @Koolblue13noted, it's a little like Favre (not that Wentz is on his level, but in general)...if you were to cut out Favre's WTF throws you'd also likely cut out his "OMG!" throws.

 

Not many QBs aside from Rodgers and maybe one or two others can make the OMG throws while also being consistently accurate with very few WTF throws. 

[goskins10]

2 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Thing is...I think the WTF throws are just part of his makeup. I'm not sure you could cut those back a lot without cutting back the great throws he makes. As @Koolblue13noted, it's a little like Favre (not that Wentz is on his level, but in general)...if you were to cut out Favre's WTF throws you'd also likely cut out his "OMG!" throws.

 

Not many QBs aside from Rodgers and maybe one or two others can make the OMG throws while also being consistently accurate with very few WTF throws. 

 

Not really disagreeing. What I am saying that with better WRs some of those, while still WTF throws, get caught through better effort from better WRs. Just change 1 or 2 a gm and the entire thing looks different. 

[Koolblue13]

2 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

Not really disagreeing. What I am saying that with better WRs some of those, while still WTF throws, get caught through better effort from better WRs. Just change 1 or 2 a gm and the entire thing looks different. 

That's exactly right. If he throws a 40 yard 50/50 ball to Terry McLaurin instead of Zach Pascal, you are definitely getting a different result.

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, skinny21 said:

I don’t have a dog in this fight, but to be fair, he did say “most” of the criticism was fair.

 

 

I don't see even how that bails out Ballard even one whit.  Imagine someone ripping you publicly, coming from the media, the owner of the company you work for, etc.  And your immediate boss tells the media when asked yes "most" of those critcisms are fair.  I doubt you'd want to give a boss a hug after that just because he said most versus all. 

 

Then later your boss is asked whether he believes in you.  And he declines to say.  Then talks later about even if this or that happened more favorably, they still would strongly consider to get rid of you. Then when asked about it again after you already are working in another job, he doesn't punt on the question and instead doubles down multiple times that he'd still would have strongly considered getting rid of you.   Then talks up the dude who replaced you at your job by referencing how he reminds him of the dude who preceded you at that same job,  

 

Also your boss shared with the media the criticism he gave you privately.

 

The outlier position about Ballard isn't my take, the outlier take would be that Ballard handled Wentz publicly the same way any GM would.  My take has been talked about both with the local and national press and the reporters who cover the Colts that its become somewhat a joke as to what next are the Colts going to do to kick Wentz in the teeth. 

Edited May 18, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Thinking Skins]

22 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

My hope for Wentz, aside from the ceiling he’s shown, stems from a few things - the hope this offense (and Turner’s play calling) is a good fit for him, that there’s a solid/good supporting cast in place, his words about pressing and taking what’s there (one of his major issues/criticisms), and his offseason work with Kurt Warner (loved his video breakdown of Wentz’s play).

 

My concern though is that it’s so easy to revert to type once the bullets start flying, and that becomes even more likely with this being his first new system (to my understanding) in quite a while.  And on top of that, this could be exacerbated by the pressure he’s been under to perform - he’s got a lot of people to prove wrong, and if he fails, this may be his last chance at being handed a starting gig on a silver platter.

 

 

On a side note, it never dawned on me how trivial the difference is between a completion percentage of 62 and 65.  Not even one more (or one fewer) completion per game.  62 vs 67 is less than a 2 completions per game differential - more like 1 and a quarter/third (depending on if you’re talking about 16 games vs 17)

Its interesting that you mention Warner because he had a heck of a journey through the NFL. We all remember him for his greatest show on turf days, but lets not forget that he also took the Cardinals to the SB. But what about the years in between? 

 

STL Got rif of him at the emergence of Marc Bulger

Then he went to NYG as a backup to the rookie Eli. He didn't play well though. Not horrible but not what we expected from early in his career. There was much talk about it being over for him. Then he goes to Arizona and has a re-emergence. 

 

So these are completely different scenarios from what Wentz went through on almost every level but it is interesting that Warner is somebody who had to constantly prove himself even after he won a SB (MVP) and was still only seen as a backup QB to Eli. We see a stretch of over 2 years where dude doesn't throw more than one TD in a game. Then he was constantly hurt. But he went to Arizona (of all places) and took them to the SB after winning records year in and year out. 

 

Just something to give me some hope. 

[NewCliche21]

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

 

His ceiling is MVP type play. The problem with Wentz is that he is so inconsistent - from play to play. His floor is below replacement level. He averages out as a top 15 type QB but the journey to that average is going to have us pulling our hair out at times. And some of us don't have the hair to spare.

 

He is going to make throws that we have not seen a Washington QB make in many many years. Good AND bad!

 

I agree with all of this except that we *have* seen our dozen quarterbacks in the past 10 years make the bad throws. Heinicke has been just a great magician, no disrespect to him at all, be just haven't really seen excellent QB play since Griffin in 2012 and, I would argue, Cousins in 2015.  Like we've seen, on a scale from one to ten, 2/3 play. Griffin/Cousins at their best (and I'm talking for a matter of drives/quarters, not with any consistency) gave us 8 play.  Wentz could be a 9/9.5, which we haven't seen in our colors, but when he plays like a 2/3, that's just a typical Sunday.

[FootballZombie]

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

While Wentz was still a Colt, Ballard said the criticisms about Wentz were warranted.  How much tougher does he have to get than that?  You don't have to dive that deep to find meaning from that.  Basically that was yeah people have knocked Wentz and I won't defend him against those critcisms because those criticisms seemed on the money to hiim.

 

Accepting criticism of your own player, and immediately following it up with faith that the player will improve is not explosive stuff.

Its no different then when Rivera addressed criticism of Heinikie but assured the media he would continue to develop and grow mid season.

Arians has taken direct shots a Brady's play from time to time.

 

Its the NFL. This stuff happens.

 

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

When pressed, refusing to say he believes in him.  Saying we've had to ask some hard questions about him,  That's not typical business as usual statements in the NFL.

 

It has happened multiple times this season and over the years. They were far from the only team that had questions about their QB at the end of the year. They were unsure if Carson would be their guy next year, just like 10 other teams were unsure who would lead their squad. 

 

There is a team right now that still has not committed to a QB. It is part of the business.

 

5 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

And its not some odd off beat take of mine or a few people here.  The national media were blown away by the public scorn coming from the Colts

 

There is absolutely a lot of scorn coming from the Colts org, especially from the guy at the top. The national media also utilizes a lot more information than what is on public display, goes into subtext and more.

 

 

But you claimed that Ballard specifically has been nearly as publicly disrespectful to Wentz as Irsay has been when the evidence is simply not there. Everything he has done in the public eye has been dang-near standard fare, stuff we see from GMs year in and year out.

 

 

Like I said If you wanna argue subtext or underlying messages, that is a different story but if your gonna claim Ballard is publicly disrespecting us by liking his new acquisition, that is reading beyond the material. He has done nothing no other GM would not due.

 

 

[Bifflog]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

Thing is...I think the WTF throws are just part of his makeup. I'm not sure you could cut those back a lot without cutting back the great throws he makes.

 

I think he might be able to axe the left-handed throws out of the arsenal, though...

[Mrshadow008]

2 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

That has been and will continue to be my main concern abotu Wentz. I said ti from the time he was in Philly. There is a point to be made that a better supporting cast, especially WRs can help with that a-lot. They will find a way to bring in some balls that otherwise turn into incompletions. 

 

I 100% agree he will make some breathtaking throws both good and horribly bad. If he can limit the bad to a manageable level (7 ints last yr suggest he has come a long way) then he could be a really good QB for the team. 

To be fair here on the INTS part anyways Wentz has thrown exactly 7 ints 4 times in his career and only thrown more than 7 ints twice in his career. he threw 14 in his rookie year and 15 his last year in philly. Also for the record Wentz is 7th all time in career TD/INT ratio at 2.46

[Skinsinparadise]

17 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

 

But you claimed that Ballard specifically has been nearly as publicly disrespectful to Wentz as Irsay has been when the evidence is simply not there. Everything he has done in the public eye has been dang-near standard fare, stuff we see from GMs year in and year out.

 

 

Like I said If you wanna argue subtext or underlying messages, that is a different story but if your gonna claim Ballard is publicly disrespecting us by liking his new acquisition, that is reading beyond the material. He has done nothing no other GM would not due.

 

 

 

The evidence is there in spades.  But I don't feel like repeating it, clearly you've made up your mind.   Ballard has directly criticized Wentz.  It doesn't take interpretation where hey maybe it was actually a complement disguised as an insult or hey its standard as heck to take digs at your own players publicly.  It was direct as heck.  No ambiguity.  Plenty have commented on it besides me, and that included reporters who actually cover the Colts who actually talked to the people involved.  Rivera didn't say most of the criticisms Dan/the media have said about Heinicke is fair.  When asked if he believed in Heinicke, Rivera goes "no comment", etc, etc.  It's not apples to apples stuff. 

 

Whether he's just as bad as Irsay.  I'd agree its not as bad as Irsay if we are talking strictly about the comments alone since Ballard will pepper some good comments among the bad. 

 

The only subtext behind my point is yeah I do think saying something negative about a player AFTER they've been traded is disrespectful to the player and the team that traded for said player.  If you don't feel that way, that's cool.  If you feel that other GMs have done the same thing routinely and there is nothing to see there.  Cool.  From my observations, that's atypical not typical.

Edited May 18, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[MartinC]

2 hours ago, NewCliche21 said:

 

I agree with all of this except that we *have* seen our dozen quarterbacks in the past 10 years make the bad throws. 

 

Yeah but have you seen Wentz bad? 🙂

 

It's not just the throws it's holding the ball waiting on something that is just not there downfield leading to horrible sacks and fumbles. It's not that he doesn't throw to backs - he does, had two backs last year with the Colts each with 40 catches - its that he plays too much 'hero ball' and try's to do too much. I think one of Ballards comments  about Wentz was 'just make the layups'. Can he be coached to play within the scheme and take whats there with the play design?

 

Rodgers (as an example) does this as well, I think some of the tension with coaching at Green Bay has probably been about playing within the system and getting the ball out of his hands quicker. But he has obviously had much more success than Wentz so his rope is much much longer and he has credit in the bank.

 

Can Wentz be coached to limit his mistakes without coaching out the big plays? If Turner can do that we will win a lot of games and Turner will put himself into HC conversations. I'm just not sure he can.

[goskins10]

2 hours ago, Mrshadow008 said:

To be fair here on the INTS part anyways Wentz has thrown exactly 7 ints 4 times in his career and only thrown more than 7 ints twice in his career. he threw 14 in his rookie year and 15 his last year in philly. Also for the record Wentz is 7th all time in career TD/INT ratio at 2.46

 

Good stat pull but it is a bit skewed. Two of those seasons were not full seasons but your point is well taken. Maybe perception does not fit reality. I think it feels like he throws more picks because when they happened. I know for the Colts they complained that his WTF plays were all at critical points of the game. Not sure about the 2.46 ratio being 7th all time. DO you have a link for that?  It would be interesting to see. 

 

But again, you make a good point. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

So Wentz the 28th best QB in the league, a spot lower than Daniel Jones.  The level of hate for Wentz especially by the national media and the media draft community is off the charts.

 

lol, i think Wentz's only friends are with the NFL Matchup Crew -- both Cosell and Bowen like Wentz.  But he certainly has very few friends in the national media. 

 

 

 

Edited May 18, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[RWJ]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

So Wentz the 28th best QB in the league, a spot lower than Daniel Jones.  The level of hate for Wentz especially by the national media and the media draft community is off the charts.

 

lol, i think Wentz's only friends are with the NFL Matchup Crew -- both Cosell and Bowen like Wentz.  But he certainly has very few friends in the national media. 

 

 

If the Oline stays healthy and provides time for Wentz like they did TH last year.  I think Wentz has a very solid year surpassing his TDs from last year and lessening his INTs also.  JMO.  

[Ball Security]

11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

So Wentz the 28th best QB in the league, a spot lower than Daniel Jones.  The level of hate for Wentz especially by the national media and the media draft community is off the charts.

 

lol, i think Wentz's only friends are with the NFL Matchup Crew -- both Cosell and Bowen like Wentz.  But he certainly has very few friends in the national media. 

 

 

 

Poor Atlanta, can’t get a guy on the list.

 

Most of the guys ranked 14-27 have never tossed 27 TDs in a season.  But, give them credit, they’ve managed to throw more than 7 INTs.

[SoCalSkins]

9 minutes ago, RWJ said:

If the Oline stays healthy and provides time for Wentz like they did TH last year.  I think Wentz has a very solid year surpassing his TDs from last year and lessening his INTs also.  JMO.  

 

He is going to have an MVP type year. The dude can ball. I always predict bust for every QB we have had in recent memory but I am all aboard the Wentz bandwagon. This is finally our year.