The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[goskins10]

21 hours ago, sjinhan said:

 

When you hear the Colts owner talk about how the QB needs to be clutch and pull the team through adversity.. and basically when Wentz didn't do enough to carry the team to beat Jacksonville, Irsay just pulled the plug...

 

 

 

This is one organization that has been spoiled at the QB since Peyton Manning.  Manning, Luck, 1 year in QB limbo, Rivers, Wentz, and now Ryan.   So maybe there is a good reason why Irsay is holding such a high standard for his QBs but I think they have lucked into their QB situation more than anything over past 2 decades.  Any other organization would have given Wentz 1-2 more years to figure it out.    Regardless of what happens with Wentz and Commanders, I really hope that Colts get a real dose of reality when they fail to find their "QB" for years and decades to come.  They really do deserve it for their snobbish attitude. 

 

 

 

Totally agree. And let's add that no Colts QB has beaten Jacksonville in Jacksonville since 2015 including Andrew Luck in 2016 and 2018 and Philip Rivers in 2019! And Carson DID beat Jacksonville in Indy in November. But yea, it's all on Carson that the Colts can't beat Jacksonville in Jacksonville! 

 

Irsay is an entitled drug addict. He had a knee jerk reaction. I am not so sure Ryan is that big an upgrade long term. I have watched him Atlanta and he can also be frustrating but can also be very productive. He is a very good person so I hope it works out. 

Edited April 13, 2022 by goskins10

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, goskins10 said:

Irsay is an entitled drug addict. He had a knee jerk reaction.

If Dan had done what Irsay did, we would have burned down FedEx.  The Colts haven't been a great organization in a while.  When Polian was there, and with Manning, they were able to cover up a lot of sins.  When Manning left, Luck was good for a while.  But there has been some pretty significant turnover and silliness that has been covered up by top-end QBs. 

 

2 hours ago, goskins10 said:

I am not so sure Ryan is that big an upgrade long term.

What is "long term" for Ryan?  2 years? He's old.  I don't know if his arm has started to fail him yet, but as soon as it does, he's toast.  

 

2 hours ago, goskins10 said:

I have watched him Atlanta and he can also be frustrating. But he can also be very good. He is a very good guy so I hope it works out. 

They HAVE to win the division in order for them to make the playoffs, most likely.  

 

Who knows who is going to win the AFC West, but all 4 teams COULD. Most likely, 3 teams come out of the west.

 

Let's say Bufallo wins the East. 

 

The AFC North has the Ravens, who should be back in contention for the playoffs, Cincy, who was in the SB, and Cleveland who just got Watson.  It's likely 2 teams make the playoffs from that division.  And the Steelers are NEVER terrible under Tomlin.  (Though if he can make things work with Trubisky, he should get coach of the year.)

 

The AFC South has the Titans and Colts.  

 

It's WAY to early, but if 3 teams make it from the West, 2 from the North, that leaves only the division winner from the South and West.  

 

Indy has the team to win the division, but it's going to be tough.  I keep expecting the Titans to turn into a pumpkin.  But they keep refusing to do so.  

[Simmsy]

Pat McAffe has started to become the Joe Rogan of sports. He's slobbing the Colt's knob while pushing false, disputed info about Wentz. I really hope Wentz kills it this year, I can't wait to root for him!

 

 

Edited April 13, 2022 by Simmsy

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

16 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

What is "long term" for Ryan?  2 years? He's old.  I don't know if his arm has started to fail him yet, but as soon as it does, he's toast.  

Argument to be made that it already has.

 

His stats last season were not good.  Worst yardage total since 2010. Tied for lowest TD's with just 20, apart from his rookie season.  Worst ANYA since 2013.  2nd highest sack rate of his career, and the past few years have been trending towards higher numbers (mid 6's) instead of his early career norm (mid 4's).
 Air Yard data only goes back 4 years, but it's easily the lowest of those.

 

 

16 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

 

The AFC South has the Titans and Colts. 

 

Indy has the team to win the division, but it's going to be tough.  I keep expecting the Titans to turn into a pumpkin.  But they keep refusing to do so.  

 

Indy has worse receiving weapons than Atlanta did.  Their defense isn't what it used to be either.  I'm not sure that team is built as well as the hype suggests.  Phenomenal run game though.

 

Houston could be a bit better.  Jacksonville is a big question mark.  Last year's coaching dysfunction is over.  Their 1st round RB missed all of last season, and Trevor Lawrence is capable of making a leap.

[Warhead36]

I love Pat McAfee, but he is a gigantic Colts homer so anything regarding them you can't take seriously at all. 

[Spaceman Spiff]

I think it's quite natural to believe that no one else other than us wanted Wentz.

 

First of all, it's the Commies.  I mean, enough said.  

 

Second, and I've gone down this line of thinking before.  There was no way that Russell Wilson was going to allow himself to be traded here.  Rodgers, at one point, seemed like he could be leaving Green Bay but I don't think there was any logical reason for him to come to this franchise on a number of different levels.  I don't think any other QB with free agent options or the ability to lift a no-trade clause would want to come here.  

 

You can say what you want about the quarterbacks in the draft this year, by a lot of accounts it's not a strong class.  Personally, I think this franchise is now gun-shy about drafting and developing a quarterback and it's understandable as to why.  That shouldn't have prohibited them from going after someone that they would be interested in like a Malik Willis or a Kenny Pickett.

 

But this franchise is always trying to sell the fan base that THIS COULD BE THE YEAR.  That we can win this year!  They're so ****ing petrified about doing a proper rebuild because that would mean they'd be losing which they can't be honest about.  They'd rather try to lie to whatever fans are left about the possibility of winning rather than being straight up about the fact that a rebuild is a process but in 2-3 years this team could be a winner.  

 

I mean, it would have been simple.  Maybe trade up to get Willis or stay at 11 to get Pickett, have that guy start 16 games, see if there's any promise there.  But they can't do that, they won't do that.  The thought of that is just abhorrent to them.

 

But I digress.  So Wentz was the only guy out there who still has a bit of upside, who still is kind of a name, who still put up decent stats last year, who is still somewhat marketable.  And the Commies didn't want to compete in free agency because...well, how could they?  All things being equal between us and another franchise, why would Wentz sign here?  So they traded for him before he could hit free agency, before he could say "no."  

 

Of course they bid against themselves for Wentz, it's a prototypical Commies move.  They need something to sell and Wentz was the closest sure thing they could get.

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

Argument to be made that it already has.

 

His stats last season were not good.  Worst yardage total since 2010. Tied for lowest TD's with just 20, apart from his rookie season.  Worst ANYA since 2013.  2nd highest sack rate of his career, and the past few years have been trending towards higher numbers (mid 6's) instead of his early career norm (mid 4's).
 Air Yard data only goes back 4 years, but it's easily the lowest of those.

It's possible.  It's also possible the Falcons just weren't very good, and I THINK he was in a new offense again.  (I could be wrong on that.)

 

I'm not going to dismiss the possibility Ryan is done.  I think it's more likely he's about the same as the last couple of years, on the back side of his career, but still a very, very viable NFL QB.

 

Look, if we had gotten him, I would have said the same thing: I think he's a good QB.  A huge upgrade to what we've had since Kirk left, even when Smith was healthy.  The issue I would have with the trade (whatever it was) is that Ryan will be 37 in May, and he is AT BEST a 2 year stopgap kindof guy, and you absolutely cannot stop looking for a QB.  

 

But I would have been very excited to see a professional QB play in this offense, at least for the next couple of years.  Assuming he didn't fall off a cliff from a physical perspective.  

 

For JUST 2022, I think Ryan MIGHT be a better QB than Wentz.  MIGHT.  I'm not sure.  I think it's debatable.  Wentz has checkmarks in all of the talent categories, Ryan has had more success.  So, I don't know.  

 

But what I do know is IF Wentz is somewhere better than "good" we have him for at least 3 more years on a team-friendly starting QB deal, and can extend him if we wanted to, and he could be here for 5-7 years.  That just isn't the case with Ryan.

 

1 hour ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

Indy has worse receiving weapons than Atlanta did.  Their defense isn't what it used to be either.  I'm not sure that team is built as well as the hype suggests.  Phenomenal run game though.

I'll use the same argument as I use for the Commanders: the off-season is far from over.  Draft and FA Part II is still there.  I would be SHOCKED if the Colts didn't address WR somehow.  Probably both with a few new FAs and with a draft pick.  

 

I still think they are probably the second best team in their division.  But again, I keep waiting for Ryan Tannehill to regress back to the QB who was shipped out of Miami.  He just hasn't done it.  Yet.  I still think he has it in him.  If he goes into the tank, the Colts are in very good position to win the division.  

 

1 hour ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Houston could be a bit better.  Jacksonville is a big question mark.  Last year's coaching dysfunction is over.  Their 1st round RB missed all of last season, and Trevor Lawrence is capable of making a leap.

Houston might be a bit better, but they are clearly 3rd or 4th in their division.

 

Jax IS a big question mark.  They spent boatloads of money in the off-season.  The question is absolutely 100% on Lawrence.  If Lawrence takes a big step forward, they could vault up the standings quickly.  If he doesn't, they're going to be middling or screwed.  Also, I like Pederson as a coach.  While he's a gigantic egotistical ****, he knows his stuff.  

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

1 hour ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

Of course they bid against themselves for Wentz, it's a prototypical Commies move.  They need something to sell and Wentz was the closest sure thing they could get.

I'd argue that drafting Malik Willis would have been a much better overall sales pitch to the fanbase.  If priority #1 was selling something, drafting Malik would be the best available option for us - that is until he most likely struggles initially and everyone piles on about how much a reach and how stupid it was.  

[Voice_of_Reason]

As an aside, I think Reich has been getting a whole lot of a big hall pass for the collapse of the Colts down the stretch, and I think he's absolutely been on board with letting the narrative that Wentz was the biggest problem be pushed to the forefront.  They have a pretty good team, and they completely folded down the stretch.  When this happened in 2016 to the 'Skins, I (and a few early adopters) were SCREAMING for Jay's head on a platter because the team looked unprepared and flat.  That's EXACTLY what the Colts looked like in their last game of the season.  Unprepared and flat.  

 

Irsay put it on Wentz.  I think it was more of a team effort of failure.  And I think Reich needs to own a lot of that responsibility.  And I think he knows that.  He's kindof skating free, at least from what I can tell, and I think he's fine with that.  

 

Ballard also probably deserves a little heat as well.  Granted, he's put together a pretty good team overall, but they lacked weapons, and the OL wasn't terrific.  Add to that they are now going on their 6th different opening day QB in a row, that's not great.  I do understand the context: Luck got hurt and retired, Rivers retired, etc.  But in signing RIvers, they had to know it was most likely a 1 year, or at best 2 year rental.  And now they're doing the same thing with Ryan.

 

We give our team (now Ron, but the whole organization before) a lot of crap for not finding a QB.  Well, they haven't either. And they didn't this off-season.  

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Oh, and Carr just signed for $40.5 APY - guaranteed #'s not yet available.

 

So for everyone that wanted to trade major draft capital - a la 1st round picks - for Derek Carr, if he was available - you now know the team would be on the hook for at least $40MM per season, but most likely more in a move that gets him here.

[Spaceman Spiff]

5 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I'd argue that drafting Malik Willis would have been a much better overall sales pitch to the fanbase.  If priority #1 was selling something, drafting Malik would be the best available option for us - that is until he most likely struggles initially and everyone piles on about how much a reach and how stupid it was.  

 

I'd have been fine with Willis, too.  But I don't think he'd be there at 11 for us, we'd have to trade up to get him and I think the trading up part is a hard sell for the fanbase.

[zCommander]

If you want to watch every game from last year of Wentz. https://nflreplay.net/

[FootballZombie]

54 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

you now know the team would be on the hook for at least $40MM per season, but most likely more in a move that gets him here.

 

That's the price of a franchise guy. That was around what was expected for him.

 

That being said, practically no team pays that, it just gets re-arranged at a later date. Carr won't, make 40 this year, and he likely wont get it at any single year on the life of this contract. Just like any franchise QB, when that big cap hit gets close, the deal is reconfigured to lower the hit. The vast majority of teams don't operate with a QB on a cap hit like that.

 

No big money QB is set to make 40 M this year, and many of them are significantly lower as a result of recent moves. No player cost 40M in 2019, 2020 or 2021 either. QBs can average 40, 45 and more, but for the majority, those numbers don't make it to the cap configuration. Avg # at signing is nice to look at, but it is missing the forest for the trees at this position.

 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

9 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

That's the price of a franchise guy. That was around what was expected for him.

 

That being said, practically no team pays that, it just gets re-arranged at a later date. Carr won't, make 40 this year, and he likely wont get it at any single year on the life of this contract. Just like any franchise QB, when that big cap hit gets close, the deal is reconfigured to lower the hit. The vast majority of teams don't operate with a QB on a cap hit like that.

 

No big money QB is set to make 40 M this year, and many of them are significantly lower as a result of recent moves. No player cost 40M in 2019, 2020 or 2021 either. QBs can average 40, 45 and more, but for the majority, those numbers don't make it to the cap configuration. Avg # at signing is nice to look at, but it is missing the forest for the trees at this position.

 

Guaranteed money is guaranteed money, that needs to be paid at some point, in some fashion.  Of course FO's can fiddle around with the cap to adjust the cap hits and all that - but at the end of the day, when you guarantee money - it has to be paid.

 

I just find it odd that you believe Wentz contract is gross, but the Derek Carr deal is just the price of doing business.  Let me get this straight, I'm not arguing against Carr's contract or any QB's contract really.  I realize the going rate for competence at the position.

 

It's fine to not believe in Wentz and have that color your opinion on everything to do with acquiring and paying him but to make it out like his contract is a death knell doesn't make any sense.

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

 

I'd have been fine with Willis, too.  But I don't think he'd be there at 11 for us, we'd have to trade up to get him and I think the trading up part is a hard sell for the fanbase.

 

I think Willis might have been a tough sell because of how raw he'd be. It's very likely that he would have needed at least a year to sit and learn how to play the NFL game ala Lance with the Niners. And IMO Lance was definitely a superior prospect.

 

Maybe Turner would have completely revamped his entire offense so Willis could run a lot and have super easy reads ala Shanny with RG3, but even Shanny decided against doing that with Lance and wanted to give him time. Then again, they also had a (IMO barely) viable starting QB in Jimmy G so they didn't necessarily have to start Lance.

 

So if they thought Willis needed a year to sit what would Dan's reaction have been? I doubt he'd be very pleased about it and might have tried to get them to start him this season. Then if that happened and Willis struggled mightily then what? Would we have accidentally screwed him by forcing him to play so early and get shell shocked? Would the fans turn on him? Would Dan turn on him (assuming Willis was a Ron decision and not Dan decision)?

 

I still don't think this would be the best landing spot for a guy like Willis.

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Guaranteed money is guaranteed money, that needs to be paid at some point, in some fashion.  Of course FO's can fiddle around with the cap to adjust the cap hits and all that - but at the end of the day, when you guarantee money - it has to be paid.

 

I just find it odd that you believe Wentz contract is gross, but the Derek Carr deal is just the price of doing business.  Let me get this straight, I'm not arguing against Carr's contract or any QB's contract really.  I realize the going rate for competence at the position.

 

It's fine to not believe in Wentz and have that color your opinion on everything to do with acquiring and paying him but to make it out like his contract is a death knell doesn't make any sense.

 

 

Carr is a franchise QB and an unquestioned one at this point thanks to his big new deal. I see no issue paying him a franchise QB rate. Futhermore, based on the way every other franchise QB contract is handled, I have absolute faith that what he will not see the yearly high-peaks presented in his new deal. I see little to worry about in a 40M avg, as he likely never sees it come to fruition. He will constantly be re-tooled, and his avg cap hit at the end of this contract will be much lower than 40M, like every other big money QB.

 

Wentz is not currently an unquestioned franchise guy, and the issue goes beyond his contract as he cost draft picks to acquire as well. He does not benefit from the same line of thinking as Carr. Beyond that, they signed Carr to an extension, which protects his bargain cost of under 20M this year, keeping his cap hit smaller than Wentz.

 

 

If you want to compare situations apples to apples, the Raiders didn't give up any picks, have an unquestioned franchise guy at 20 M this year and almost assuredly under 40M for the life of his current deal compared to us who are paying Wentz 28 M this year, gave up draft picks to get him and still have to hope this guy pans out since he is not the unquestioned future. Yeah,  I see one side getting considerably more bang for their buck, especially when one guy put up around 70 more yds a game and 1,300 more over the season last year.

 

Now the Raiders certainly had an easier pathway to this outcome, but again with the addition of this new Raiders' move, every QB deal this offseason in comparison to ours, a team either acquired their unquestioned guy, or paid less for their own "?", usually significantly so. Carr's deal only makes that more apparent. Still waiting on SEA and CAR.

Edited April 13, 2022 by FootballZombie

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 hours ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

I think it's quite natural to believe that no one else other than us wanted Wentz.

Except that the reporting is that there was at least one other team who was interested.  I remember Keim mentioning it, and Russini and a Colts reporter (which @Skinsinparadise reminded me of) both said there was another bidder.

 

I mean, anybody can believe whatever they want to believe, and you can not believe the reporting, but the reporting is there was another bidder out there.  My guess is it was the Panthers, who really didn't want to be in the situation they are in.  But it could have been the Seahawks as well, after Russ left.  My guess is if it was the Seahawks, they wouldn't want to pick up the cap hit Wentz carried, and the Panthers, who knows what they are doing, they traded for Darnold last year.  

 

My guess is the same as @Skinsinparadise: Ballard told Ron there was another bidder, but clearly not what the other bidder was offering.  And Ron went "all in" and said something like, "what do you want."  Ballard told him, and Ron agreed.  Because Ron did NOT want to be in the position where the Panthers are with no qualified starting QB on the roster going into the draft.  

 

Would that mean Ron was negotiating against himself?  Maybe.  Could Ron have probably gotten a better deal?  Maybe.  But let's say Ron goes in and says, "ok, I'll give you 2 4ths with a conditional third, and we'll eat 2/3 of the cap.  Then Ballard goes to (let's assume its' the Panthers) and says, "can you do better?" And they say, "Sure.  But you have to take the offer now."  Then we lose Wentz and we're stuck with no viable QB on the roster going into FA.  Then you enter the "Overpay for Trubisky" sweepstakes.  Which they might have won, might not have.  But if they had gotten Trubisky, it would have been an overpayment, because we know the Steelers were also interested, so it would have driven the price up.

 

3 hours ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

Second, and I've gone down this line of thinking before.  There was no way that Russell Wilson was going to allow himself to be traded here.  Rodgers, at one point, seemed like he could be leaving Green Bay but I don't think there was any logical reason for him to come to this franchise on a number of different levels.  I don't think any other QB with free agent options or the ability to lift a no-trade clause would want to come here.  

I agree with you, but probably for different reasons that you think.  I think Russ COULD have come here, but he preferred Denver and Seattle preferred Denver because it's in the AFC.  Which makes sense. 

 

Rodgers was never an option for anywhere other than GB and Denver.  Probably just GB.  And while you state that as a slight to the Commanders, I think the same thing would hold true for about 25 of the NFL teams, maybe more.  First, I don't think GB would trade him in the NFC, and second, he would want a place which was in "win SB next year" mode.  And while I think our roster is closer than some, even with Rodgers, we weren't quite that.

 

And yeah, I don't think he'd want to deal with the Dan drama.  

 

Though I do think there ARE QBs who would not mind coming here.  The thing is, Ron is massively respected around the league, with coaches, players, agents, etc.  The team on the field won 7 games with a backup QB last year.  There is talent, and they CAN win.   The issue really is the constant cycle of negativity that surrounds Dan.  At the moment, it has very little to do with the football side.  I think even agents and players are happy to deal with Ron/Martin/Marty.   It's all the extracurricular stuff which is getting in the way. 

 

3 hours ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

You can say what you want about the quarterbacks in the draft this year, by a lot of accounts it's not a strong class.  Personally, I think this franchise is now gun-shy about drafting and developing a quarterback and it's understandable as to why.  That shouldn't have prohibited them from going after someone that they would be interested in like a Malik Willis or a Kenny Pickett.

I personally think Ron would have gone that route if he thought there was one who could step in and play quickly, and had tremendous upside.  If this was the 2023 draft, with better prospects, I think you would have seen a trade-up to get in position to take a rookie.  The book on Willis is he might not be ready this year.  Picket seems to have, best case, Kirk Cousins ceiling.  

 

Ron CAN NOT punt the 2022 season, and try and play TH or some rando at QB and "hope" they can improve.  He needed a qualified NFL starter, either a top-end rookie who was ready to play, or a veteran who can be an immediate upgrade.  

 

3 hours ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

But this franchise is always trying to sell the fan base that THIS COULD BE THE YEAR.  That we can win this year!  They're so ****ing petrified about doing a proper rebuild because that would mean they'd be losing which they can't be honest about.  They'd rather try to lie to whatever fans are left about the possibility of winning rather than being straight up about the fact that a rebuild is a process but in 2-3 years this team could be a winner.  

I just don't think this is true at all under Ron.  His first year he literally said "this is a rebuilding year" and that was his justification of starting Haskins at the beginning of the year.  Yeah, he changed his mind when he saw how putrid the NFC East was.  

 

And then going into 2021, he spent the entire off-season trying to lower expectations.  He said he was worried about playing a first place schedule before the Tampa playoff game for Pete's sake.  He said repeatedly the division title was great, but it was ahead of schedule. 

 

This year he has said it's time to take a step forward.  But that's a natural thing to say going into year 3.

 

Also, when you say "won't do a rebuild properly" they have literally replaced something like 3/4 of the team from 2019, and that started immediately.  What they didn't (and shouldn't have done) is gotten rid of the core young players who were actually good: Allen, Payne, McLaurin, Sweat, Scherff.  Unless I'm missing somebody, that's basically the list of top-end starters who were here in 2019 who are still here.  They couldn't get rid of Collins in 2020 because of cap reasons, so they were stuck with him.  

 

I'm not sure what you wanted them to do?  There's literally no reason to trade young, productive players on rookie deals.  They have replaced just about everybody else on the team. 

What they still lack is obvious: top-half of the league QB play.  It solves so many problems.  

 

3 hours ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

I mean, it would have been simple.  Maybe trade up to get Willis or stay at 11 to get Pickett, have that guy start 16 games, see if there's any promise there.  But they can't do that, they won't do that.  The thought of that is just abhorrent to them.

You don't trade up to get a prospect that "might" work out.  You only trade up to get what you think is a "can't miss" prospect.  About the only thing all the draftniks out there agree on is that there isn't a guy worth trading up for.  Some say none should go in the first round.  Others say they would slot in somewhere in the 20's.

 

Just hoping you have a top-end prospect isn't going to get you a top end prospet.  

 

3 hours ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

But I digress.  So Wentz was the only guy out there who still has a bit of upside, who still is kind of a name, who still put up decent stats last year, who is still somewhat marketable.  And the Commies didn't want to compete in free agency because...well, how could they?  All things being equal between us and another franchise, why would Wentz sign here?  So they traded for him before he could hit free agency, before he could say "no."  

The colts weren't going to release Wentz because there was another team involved.  According to the reporting.  

 

And I do think it's possible a QB could choose us over the Panthers.  Which is the other obvious QB needy team at the moment.  

 

But I completely disagree that this was a marketing move.  The move was universally panned by absolutely everybody.  They knew that was coming.  They knew there would be massive questions.  This was a football move to not be in the Panther's or Seahawks situation.  

 

3 hours ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

Of course they bid against themselves for Wentz, it's a prototypical Commies move.  They need something to sell and Wentz was the closest sure thing they could get.

Wentz isn't really marketable, so I'm not sure what they are selling.  

 

I know you just like to take shot after shot after shot at the organization as a whole, and that's fine, they've earned it.  Actually, "they" haven't.  DAN has.  Ron hasn't.  Ron hasn't earned, in any way shape or form, the complete ire of the fan base.  He inherited a complete and total mess run by some of the most loathsome people you can imagine, and has been trying to make lemonade out of lemons ever since.  And add to that, he's had just about the worst possible QB luck you can imagine: Haskins first, then Kyle Allen getting hurt and having to play Alex Smith on one leg, playing a guy in a playoff game who had been on the roster for 6 weeks, having his 2021 starter play 16 snaps.

 

And with all of that, they've been a respectable team on the field, for the most part.  They've been competitive in most games, they have mostly improved throughout the season (until COVID destroyed the last one), and they have mostly acted with a lot of class and decorum

 

I'm fine taking shots at Dan.  And I get that Ron inherited the last 30 years of fan angst, but he also has nothing to do with it.  But it feels like he and his regime are being lumped in with Dan, Vinny and Bruce.  And that is really unfortunate.

 

Because, the steam train coming down the road is this:  Dan isn't forced to sell the team, and Ron decides he's just fed-up, and resigns/retires.  Because I could TOTALLY see that as an option after this season, almost no matter the record.  And then good luck convincing anybody to come here in this environment.  Ron wouldn't have taken the job today.  We were lucky the name change stuff, the sexual harassment and the financial debacle all happened after he was hired.   If Ron goes, Dan might have no choice but to coach the team himself, because literally nobody will come here. 

[zCommander]

12 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Wentz isn't really marketable, so I'm not sure what they are selling. 

 

I guess you really don't know that the FO was trying to sell the Commanders name with their new starting QB this year? They said the change is coming, new name and new starting QB. They have been selling the QB thing before the name change came out. They are marketing the new name with Wentz now. Fans will buy his jersey whether you think otherwise. 

 

Edited April 13, 2022 by zCommander

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

I guess you really don't know that the FO was trying to sell the Commanders name with their new starting QB this year? They said the change is coming, new name and new starting QB. They have been selling the QB thing before the name change came out. They are marketing the new name with Wentz now. Fans will buy his jersey whether you think otherwise. 

 

 

I wonder if they'll buy up all of those "The Legend of Taylor Heinicke" hoodies that are still left, cross out TH, and insert Wentz then sell them for a 300% markup. 

 

But I do agree at least somewhat with the whole "they're trying to sell the new name" thing. At least Wentz is someone who has a lot of potential. Trying to sell Mitch Trubisky as the face of a new era in Washington would be a fail on a mythical level.

Edited April 13, 2022 by mistertim

[Voice_of_Reason]

57 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

Wentz is not currently an unquestioned franchise guy, and the issue goes beyond his contract as he cost draft picks to acquire as well. He does not benefit from the same line of thinking as Carr. Beyond that, they signed Carr to an extension, which protects his bargain cost of under 20M this year, keeping his cap hit smaller than Wentz.

Not that it's the be-all-end-all statistic, but in ESPN's QBR, Wentz was rated 9th at 54.7 and Carr was 14th at 52.4.  Granted, pretty close overall, but Wentz was actually graded higher than Carr.

 

Sure, some statistics can be misleading, and I fully grant that.  

 

But to say that Carr and Wentz are all that different is a bit misleading also.  

 

As far as contract goes, the signing bonus number has not been released yet.  Since this is an extension, I'm not exactly sure how the math works, but I believe the signing bonus will be prorated across the new years.  

 

However, I'd imagine it will be structured something like what GB did with Rodgers:

 

 

There will be a breaking point in Carr's contract where the cap hit soars, and they will have to extend again or release him.

 

The AAV number really means nothing.

 

Conversely, a $28M cap hit is high, but not ridiculously high.  It ranks 6th currently, but his out-years would rank in the teens.  

 

Interestingly, Tannehill is #1 with a $38M cap hit. The top 5 are Tannehill, Mahomes, Cousins, Goff, Rodgers then Wentz.  Cousins and Goff on that list are the real issues.  Typically, the year you sign an extension is the lowest cap hit of the contract.  So it makes sense Carr would be lower on the list.  

 

The thing is, if Wentz pans out, then they could either restructure him this off-season to extend him and lower the cap hit further, or just live with the $26/$27 million numbers the next 2 years.  

[Spaceman Spiff]

19 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Except that the reporting is that there was at least one other team who was interested.  I remember Keim mentioning it, and Russini and a Colts reporter (which @Skinsinparadise reminded me of) both said there was another bidder.

 

I mean, anybody can believe whatever they want to believe, and you can not believe the reporting, but the reporting is there was another bidder out there.  My guess is it was the Panthers, who really didn't want to be in the situation they are in.  But it could have been the Seahawks as well, after Russ left.  My guess is if it was the Seahawks, they wouldn't want to pick up the cap hit Wentz carried, and the Panthers, who knows what they are doing, they traded for Darnold last year.  

 

My guess is the same as @Skinsinparadise: Ballard told Ron there was another bidder, but clearly not what the other bidder was offering.  And Ron went "all in" and said something like, "what do you want."  Ballard told him, and Ron agreed.  Because Ron did NOT want to be in the position where the Panthers are with no qualified starting QB on the roster going into the draft.  

 

Would that mean Ron was negotiating against himself?  Maybe.  Could Ron have probably gotten a better deal?  Maybe.  But let's say Ron goes in and says, "ok, I'll give you 2 4ths with a conditional third, and we'll eat 2/3 of the cap.  Then Ballard goes to (let's assume its' the Panthers) and says, "can you do better?" And they say, "Sure.  But you have to take the offer now."  Then we lose Wentz and we're stuck with no viable QB on the roster going into FA.  Then you enter the "Overpay for Trubisky" sweepstakes.  Which they might have won, might not have.  But if they had gotten Trubisky, it would have been an overpayment, because we know the Steelers were also interested, so it would have driven the price up.

 

I agree with you, but probably for different reasons that you think.  I think Russ COULD have come here, but he preferred Denver and Seattle preferred Denver because it's in the AFC.  Which makes sense. 

 

Rodgers was never an option for anywhere other than GB and Denver.  Probably just GB.  And while you state that as a slight to the Commanders, I think the same thing would hold true for about 25 of the NFL teams, maybe more.  First, I don't think GB would trade him in the NFC, and second, he would want a place which was in "win SB next year" mode.  And while I think our roster is closer than some, even with Rodgers, we weren't quite that.

 

And yeah, I don't think he'd want to deal with the Dan drama.  

 

Though I do think there ARE QBs who would not mind coming here.  The thing is, Ron is massively respected around the league, with coaches, players, agents, etc.  The team on the field won 7 games with a backup QB last year.  There is talent, and they CAN win.   The issue really is the constant cycle of negativity that surrounds Dan.  At the moment, it has very little to do with the football side.  I think even agents and players are happy to deal with Ron/Martin/Marty.   It's all the extracurricular stuff which is getting in the way. 

 

I personally think Ron would have gone that route if he thought there was one who could step in and play quickly, and had tremendous upside.  If this was the 2023 draft, with better prospects, I think you would have seen a trade-up to get in position to take a rookie.  The book on Willis is he might not be ready this year.  Picket seems to have, best case, Kirk Cousins ceiling.  

 

Ron CAN NOT punt the 2022 season, and try and play TH or some rando at QB and "hope" they can improve.  He needed a qualified NFL starter, either a top-end rookie who was ready to play, or a veteran who can be an immediate upgrade.  

 

I just don't think this is true at all under Ron.  His first year he literally said "this is a rebuilding year" and that was his justification of starting Haskins at the beginning of the year.  Yeah, he changed his mind when he saw how putrid the NFC East was.  

 

And then going into 2021, he spent the entire off-season trying to lower expectations.  He said he was worried about playing a first place schedule before the Tampa playoff game for Pete's sake.  He said repeatedly the division title was great, but it was ahead of schedule. 

 

This year he has said it's time to take a step forward.  But that's a natural thing to say going into year 3.

 

Also, when you say "won't do a rebuild properly" they have literally replaced something like 3/4 of the team from 2019, and that started immediately.  What they didn't (and shouldn't have done) is gotten rid of the core young players who were actually good: Allen, Payne, McLaurin, Sweat, Scherff.  Unless I'm missing somebody, that's basically the list of top-end starters who were here in 2019 who are still here.  They couldn't get rid of Collins in 2020 because of cap reasons, so they were stuck with him.  

 

I'm not sure what you wanted them to do?  There's literally no reason to trade young, productive players on rookie deals.  They have replaced just about everybody else on the team. 

What they still lack is obvious: top-half of the league QB play.  It solves so many problems.  

 

You don't trade up to get a prospect that "might" work out.  You only trade up to get what you think is a "can't miss" prospect.  About the only thing all the draftniks out there agree on is that there isn't a guy worth trading up for.  Some say none should go in the first round.  Others say they would slot in somewhere in the 20's.

 

Just hoping you have a top-end prospect isn't going to get you a top end prospet.  

 

The colts weren't going to release Wentz because there was another team involved.  According to the reporting.  

 

And I do think it's possible a QB could choose us over the Panthers.  Which is the other obvious QB needy team at the moment.  

 

But I completely disagree that this was a marketing move.  The move was universally panned by absolutely everybody.  They knew that was coming.  They knew there would be massive questions.  This was a football move to not be in the Panther's or Seahawks situation.  

 

Wentz isn't really marketable, so I'm not sure what they are selling.  

 

I know you just like to take shot after shot after shot at the organization as a whole, and that's fine, they've earned it.  Actually, "they" haven't.  DAN has.  Ron hasn't.  Ron hasn't earned, in any way shape or form, the complete ire of the fan base.  He inherited a complete and total mess run by some of the most loathsome people you can imagine, and has been trying to make lemonade out of lemons ever since.  And add to that, he's had just about the worst possible QB luck you can imagine: Haskins first, then Kyle Allen getting hurt and having to play Alex Smith on one leg, playing a guy in a playoff game who had been on the roster for 6 weeks, having his 2021 starter play 16 snaps.

 

And with all of that, they've been a respectable team on the field, for the most part.  They've been competitive in most games, they have mostly improved throughout the season (until COVID destroyed the last one), and they have mostly acted with a lot of class and decorum

 

I'm fine taking shots at Dan.  And I get that Ron inherited the last 30 years of fan angst, but he also has nothing to do with it.  But it feels like he and his regime are being lumped in with Dan, Vinny and Bruce.  And that is really unfortunate.

 

Because, the steam train coming down the road is this:  Dan isn't forced to sell the team, and Ron decides he's just fed-up, and resigns/retires.  Because I could TOTALLY see that as an option after this season, almost no matter the record.  And then good luck convincing anybody to come here in this environment.  Ron wouldn't have taken the job today.  We were lucky the name change stuff, the sexual harassment and the financial debacle all happened after he was hired.   If Ron goes, Dan might have no choice but to coach the team himself, because literally nobody will come here. 

 

Holy **** VoR, too much to reply to.  Congrats, you win.  Sheesh.

[Voice_of_Reason]

6 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

I guess you really don't know that the FO was trying to sell the Commanders name with their new starting QB this year? They said the change is coming, new name and new starting QB. They have been selling the QB thing before the name change came out. They are marketing the new name with Wentz now. Fans will buy his jersey whether you think otherwise. 

 

Fans will buy the starting QBs jersey no matter what.  There are people who bought Grossman, Jason Campbell, Brunnell, Alex Smith, hell, I'm sure some people even bought a Case Keenum jersey.  Certainly Haskins.  I would be SHOCKED if you didn't have a closet full of Taylor Heinicke jerseys.

 

And yeah, they've got to market something.

 

My point is Wentz isn't like signing Wilson.  THAT'S splashy.  That's sexy.  That's going to really drive sales. 

 

Wentz will probably sell the same amount of jerseys that an average NFL QB who's kindof "meh" will sell. There will be people who buy jersey's, and the starting QB is almost always they highest selling jersey.  Shrug.  

 

And sure, I expect them to push it, because what the hell else are they going to push?

[Voice_of_Reason]

10 minutes ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

 

Holy **** VoR, too much to reply to.  Congrats, you win.  Sheesh.

13 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I wonder if they'll buy up all of those "The Legend of Taylor Heinicke" hoodies that are still left, cross out TH, and insert Wentz then sell them for a 300% markup. 

I swear I walked into a Redskins store just before the pandemic and they were trying to sell BOTH Jason Campbell and McNabb jersey's.  

 

I mean, why not?  What the hell else are you going to do with them?

[mistertim]

39 minutes ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

 

Holy **** VoR, too much to reply to.  Congrats, you win.  Sheesh.

 

Yeah I know the feeling. @Voice_of_Reason's patience and multi-quote chops are just too much for me to deal with sometimes and I throw in the towel as well. Luckily for me we usually agree on stuff for the most part.   

[Spaceman Spiff]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah I know the feeling. @Voice_of_Reason's patience and multi-quote chops are just too much for me to deal with sometimes and I throw in the towel as well. Luckily for me we usually agree on stuff for the most part.   

 

Dude, the multi quote killed me there, I just couldn't take it.