The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[mistertim]

11 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Yeah. And if Daniels is our guy, too bad NE. But if Maye is our guy, then there may be a real chance to flip picks with NE and we both "win" ... but for that to happen the #2 pick has to be presumed to be available for not only NE, but other teams that want to move up.

 

You guys are getting kinda nuts with this stuff. Every draft people are coming up with convoluted complicated schemes to move up and down and fleece this team and get these teams to fight over our pick and it pretty much never happens (in general, not just with us).

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

You guys are getting kinda nuts with this stuff. Every draft people are coming up with convoluted complicated schemes to move up and down and fleece this team and get these teams to fight over our pick and it pretty much never happens (in general, not just with us).

 

If Ian Rappaport hadn't thrown it out I don't think the NE scenario would have realistic legs on here, but he did, so it must be discussed!

[Conn]

3 hours ago, Professor_Nutter_Butter said:

But he's not flashy, Mac. The Football Fans have united to say Williams, Maye and Daniels are the best. If it's not them, is this team even trying to win? Duh.

I like how you’re heroically positioning yourself again the villainous group that *checks notes* watches lots of football and wants their team to draft the best QB prospect, but doesn’t agree with you

 

Bravely done. You’ll conquer this tyranny yet! 

[ThatNFLChick]

They are about to talk about the Commanders and maybe talk to Dan Quinn on NFL Network FYI

[mh86]

4 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

You guys are getting kinda nuts with this stuff. Every draft people are coming up with convoluted complicated schemes to move up and down and fleece this team and get these teams to fight over our pick and it pretty much never happens (in general, not just with us).

Every year. People get these crazy ideas about stockpiling draft picks as if it’s the easiest thing in the world. My favorite is the ones who study every (or in most cases, one) mock draft or reading between the lines of what coaches and GMs say and can declare they know who the pick will be. 

[clskinsfan]

Dan QUinn live on NFLN right now if anyone is interested. 

Quinn is sporting the black pullover with the W emblem. I like the look. Might pick one up.

[FootballZombie]

NE can leggo my eggos

If they wanted their pick of QB they should have lost less games.

 

 

They can have whatever is left after we are finished.

[mistertim]

11 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

If Ian Rappaport hadn't thrown it out I don't think the NE scenario would have realistic legs on here, but he did, so it must be discussed!

 

  So because Ian Rappaport reached behind himself and pulled something out of his rectum, it's now likely that some super convoluted and pretty much unprecedented series of events is going to unfold?

[88Comrade2000]

Big Ben was taken at #11.

[Dah-Dee]

3 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Big Ben was taken at #11.

 

Oh, oh, I wanna play!

 

Broadway Joe was taken at #1. And #12.

[88Comrade2000]

I seriously doubt anyone is going to reveal their true intentions in interviews.

 

 

[Rufus T Firefly]

1 minute ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

I seriously doubt anyone is going to reveal their true intentions in interviews.

 

 

It's always cracked me up that people get excited about GM/Coach interviews around trade deadline or drafts, etc. 

 

It's pretty much always breathless anticipation of them and then disappointed "he didn't really say anything" afterward. 

[The Consigliere]

6 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

This is a strong class historically for sure. But there's also misses in every class, and diamonds in every class. And while next year might look weak, I have a hard time believing that Ewers and Beck and Sanders aren't all being talked about as Top 5/10 guys when things shake out this time next year. And there's always the chance of a Jayden Daniels / Joe Burow type of emergence as well. I get the angst in passsing on a blue-chip QB to kick it to another year with the perception that the class is weak. But drafting a QB at #2 because the perception is they're blue chip and can't miss isn't necessarily the only option. 

 

Trubisky went #2 and Mahomes (#10) and Watson (#12)

Mayfield (#1) and Darnold (#3) were drafted ahead of Allen (#7) and Lamar (#32) - Rosen sandwiched in there at #10 for good measure

 

Their classes were considered a pretty strong , but the e "hits" were the 2nd or 3rd ranked guys (or 5th), not necessarily the top tier guy on everyone's board. Still can't believe the Trubisky situation. How did we not all see that coming hah.

 

So it's far from an exact science and I think the analytics approach of "the more chances the better" is a viable strategy, especially if the person picking the players has a history of being on times built around successful late-round QBs. Just a thought. The entire exercise is an absolute crapshoot. We likely won't be picking in the Top 3 for a long while, but that also doesn't mean we have no chance at a franchise QB. If we have the right front office in place, they'll hit QB when the time is right, whether it's at #2, #12, #28, or somewhere in the 2nd to 7th rounds. It's all about the number of bites on the apple, and if we got 1/2/3/1/1 from Atlanta to move to #8, that's a lot of bites. 

Trubisky was seen. Sometimes the NFL doesn't get it, and the fans basic gruntish, hunch is on point. Fans did not buy Zach Wilson, period, fans did not buy Mitch Trubisky period. It's almost like the Jets "Groan" after yet another TE at slot like 12, is the penultimate example of that visceral fan knowledge and with Trubisky, they knew. People had already heard, this guy started one game before his final year. That's it. Not good enough to win the job until he was 22 years old, and this is at UNC, and Marquise Williams, of the CFL, and the AAF whatever that was, was the guy beating him out. It was obvious he wasn't it. I don't know what the NFL was looking at, but even the back of the college football card looked like crap. Zach Wilson, was at BYU and didn't move the needle until a last overage year. Like, whatever, who cares? It was, again, obvious. I was suckered a bit with Lance, but it was simple, athletic, big arm, and people were looking for the next Lamar, and so for a roll of the dice, I would have considered him later in round 1, where he was taken was crazy, but I didnt consider the idea itself crazy. Broke out as a sophomore, interesting. But Wilson and Trubisky? They were just obvious whatevs. 

 

In '18 it was a great class and nobody agreed about anything because they all had big holes to some extent: Baker too small, had to leave his school, Darnold was kinda raw, lots of picks, worse final year, Rosen had mechanics issues I think and a poisonous personality, Josh Allen was incredibly inaccurate, Lamar was a mega athlete but a raw passer.....

 

Part of the reason I'm skeptical of the '25 guys is that while it does look better with Sanders, and Ewers going back, they came back because they were gonna drop A LOT during the '23 season (Sanders went from top 10 to not a first rounder, Ewers I dont know how far he fell but a lot), and on top of that, with none of them being at the level of any of these '24 guys other than maybe Nix, on top of that, you have a ton of the worst teams having settled up at QB from the '20, '21, '23 and '24 classes. You look at the worst teams around, how many are looking for QB next year?

 

NYG

Arizona

Carolina

Atlanta

Tennessee

Denver

NYJ

 

There's like 7, maybe, but of those seven, Arizona has Kyler, NYJ has Rodgers and probably bounces back. NYG, Atlanta are going to try and solve it this offseason, Carolina just invested a giant pile of assets for Bryce Young, Tennessee will be looking for signs one way or another with Levis. 

 

So it makes for a weird '25 situation: Who among those teams are likely to want to pull a QB out of '25? The Giants, maybe the Cardinals, the Titans, maybe the Broncos. That's it. And of those teams, you still have Kyler, and Levis in play for two of the four. I'm just skeptical. It's not a good class, and nearly all the teams up there will either have fixed QB already (like Atlanta) or will not necessarily be bad, like the Jets, maybe even Arizona. 

 

So I don't know whats gonna happen, but I don't see the vibe with these guys. I do think it's better than the Corral, Willis, Howell, Pickett, Ridder crap show that was '22, but it does feel a lot more like '19 if there was no Kyler. What teams are gonna convince themselves, and where in the draft order. We'll see. I think 2 or 3 guys will go round 1, maybe 4 (Im really curious about Cam Ward), but I'm not sold it will necessairly be who we think. Because the bad teams next year, superficially, the top of the draft guys to me, seem likely to be:

Carolina

Washington

NYG

NE

Pittsburgh

Tennessee

Oakland

Denver

Minny if no Cousins

 

Who among those teams probably is willing to pull the trigger if they don't fix it now? Probably Carolina, NYG, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Denver, and Minny but how do they want to fix it? I'm not sold all those teams will want to use the draft, especially with these prospects. 

 

I'm just blathering, but I do think it's gonna look like '13, '14, '19, '22 more than it will look like the other more QB heavy years since '17 because at least or 4 of the worst 10 teams will have already addressed QB in recent drafts and w/prospects pretty weak, they'll be less incentivized to reach, especially if more QB's get thrown back in the pond in '25 from the '21 class. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

@The Consigliere I actually think the idea of a 1-year wonder is terrifying. But then you've got the Joe Burrows of the world that go from okay to solid to absolute superstar. Jayden Daniels sort of fits that mold too. But with Burrow, he was a premier recruit who had been tabbed pretty early on as a blue-chip talent. I can't remember if that was the case with Wilson or Trubisky, but that was certainly not the case with Lance.

 

Also re: Lance, he broke out as a r-FR. I remember, because JMU and NDSU were neck and neck #1 and #2 all year. And after Easton Stick left NDSU, I thought for sure JMU would have a crack at NDSU, and then Lance comes out of nowhere and just destroys FCS as a freshman. And I was in person in Frisco TX in Jan. 2020 when Lance led the Bison over JMU for the title, yet again. And that's when the narrative started to shift on Lance being a potential top pick eventually. But I thought FOR SURE that meant 2022 or 2023. I did not think it was possible for a r-SO from NDSU to be a top pick. And then COVID hit, he played 1 game, then entered the draft. If Lance's 2019 season happened in 2023, he would 100% be hitting the portal, going to Alabama or USC or Texas or Ohio State, play there for 1-2 years, and then be a Top 3 pick and probably have way more success. He just came out way too early, and part of the blame there has to be on COVID, because it robbed him of another season of play, even if against FCS talent. But even still, Lance was a one-year wonder from an FCS school with little HS pedigree. There is a bit of a trend there.

 

I go back to Brock Purdy. I forget what his rank was coming out of HS, but both he and Howell went into the 2021 season with expectations to be top picks, and then both completely fell off in their final year (and I think Purdy got benched at ISU at one point). But they both actually had some pedigree, and were not one-season wonders. And I think the success for landing a mid-round QB is in long-term college production. And the success in landing a top tier QB in the Top 3 is going with someone with both pedigree, experience, and big time production.

 

Caleb and Maye have the pedigree and the big season (albeit Maye's in 2022). Daniels has the experience and the big stats, can't remember if he had the pedigree. But I actually think all three QBs check the boxes enough. There's no Trubisky/Lance/Wilson in those 3 that I can identify. 

Edited February 28 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Dah-Dee]

8 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Daniels has the experience and the big stats, can't remember if he had the pedigree. 

 

"Daniels was a four-star recruit out of Cajon High School in San Bernardino, California. According to 247sports, he was ranked as the No. 1 dual-threat quarterback in the country, the No. 5 recruit in California and the No. 35 overall recruit in the Class of 2019.
 

He held 25 Division I offers out of high school, including an offer from LSU. He also held Southeastern Conference offers from Alabama, Tennessee and Florida, where he took an unofficial visit." 

https://www.lsureveille.com/sports/jayden-daniels-as-a-recruit-how-a-kid-from-san-bernardino-california-got-to-baton/article_97a6bc96-9534-11ee-8736-33a5fbcccc6a.html

Edited February 28 by Dah-Dee

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

I wonder if ATL are going to give up the #8 pick for Fields ? 
 

CHI get the #8 pick

ATL get Fields and a future pick.

No. If Atlanta trades for Fields, it will be a 2 and/or another pick. No chance they trade the 8 unless the get beaucoup picks back, that would be clinically insane. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

13 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

"Daniels was a four-star recruit out of Cajon High School in San Bernardino, California. According to 247sports, he was ranked as the No. 1 dual-threat quarterback in the country, the No. 5 recruit in California and the No. 35 overall recruit in the Class of 2019.
 

He held 25 Division I offers out of high school, including an offer from LSU. He also held Southeastern Conference offers from Alabama, Tennessee and Florida, where he took an unofficial visit." 

https://www.lsureveille.com/sports/jayden-daniels-as-a-recruit-how-a-kid-from-san-bernardino-california-got-to-baton/article_97a6bc96-9534-11ee-8736-33a5fbcccc6a.html

 

Awesome, thank you!

 

It's just an unproven theory of mine. Lots of anecdotal / circumstantial observations, but it feels to me the biggest chance to hit on success comes from the 3 factors ... Pedigree, Performance and Experience. An obvious 4th factor would be physical attributes. 

 

Lance did not have the pedigree. He did not have the experience. But he had the performance. He had the physical attributes.

Wilson did not have the pedigree. He did not have the experience. He had the production. He did have the physical attributes.

 

So maybe you need to check 3 of the 4 boxes. Idk.

 

Someone like Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson - they had the experience and the production. So two boxes checked.

 

Purdy had the pedigree and the experience, up and down on production. Same with Howell. 

 

Caleb, Maye, Daniels check the pedigree box. They all have experience. They also have production. I feel fairly confident all three can be successful. Maye might actually have the most unknowns in that he only has 2 years of experience, so maybe he's the most risky of the trio. 

Edited February 28 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Professor_Nutter_Butter]

1 hour ago, Conn said:

I like how you’re heroically positioning yourself again the villainous group that *checks notes* watches lots of football and wants their team to draft the best QB prospect, but doesn’t agree with you

 

Bravely done. You’ll conquer this tyranny yet! 

Believe me, I'm a professor. 

[redskinss]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

You guys are getting kinda nuts with this stuff. Every draft people are coming up with convoluted complicated schemes to move up and down and fleece this team and get these teams to fight over our pick and it pretty much never happens (in general, not just with us).

I'm still waiting for a Bears fan to suggest this.

We trade down with washington because they want caleb williams, we get 2 firsts and a second.

We then trade down with new England because they want maye, we get 2 firsts and a second.

We then trade down with the giants because they want daniels, we get 2 firsts and a second.

We end up with Malik nabers 6 firsts and 3 seconds.

 

Sounds reasonable right?

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

Would you rather have

- A: Fields, Moore, MHJ 

- B: Williams, Moore, Mooney

 

It's pretty damn easy for me. A. That's before you include the added picks they get with A since they can easily trade down and still get MHJ. Not saying we should absolutely give up their price to move up to #1 for Caleb, but I am open to listening to the price. This notion that it's a done deal, no way Bears don't take Caleb is not certain at all IMO

B. 

5 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

You think that’s an awful idea for ATL do you? 

Yes, of course. 

[NOLA2DC]

32 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Awesome, thank you!

 

It's just an unproven theory of mine. Lots of anecdotal / circumstantial observations, but it feels to me the biggest chance to hit on success comes from the 3 factors ... Pedigree, Performance and Experience. An obvious 4th factor would be physical attributes. 

 

Lance did not have the pedigree. He did not have the experience. But he had the performance. He had the physical attributes.

Wilson did not have the pedigree. He did not have the experience. He had the production. He did have the physical attributes.

 

So maybe you need to check 3 of the 4 boxes. Idk.

 

Someone like Kirk Cousins or Russell Wilson - they had the experience and the production. So two boxes checked.

 

Purdy had the pedigree and the experience, up and down on production. Same with Howell. 

 

Caleb, Maye, Daniels check the pedigree box. They all have experience. They also have production. I feel fairly confident all three can be successful. Maye might actually have the most unknowns in that he only has 2 years of experience, so maybe he's the most risky of the trio. 

I think it boils down to the environment, particularly the level of coaching they get from the beginning. I still don't know if I would want any of them starting day one because what CJ did this year is an anomaly. Historically, sitting a year or at least half of the season seems the best route. 

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Yep. I'll repeat and even expand on the research I did.

 

Over the last 25 drafts, there have been seven strong QB draft classes. Now this is subjective, but I consider a QB class strong if at least three are taken in the top 10. These drafts are: 1999, 2004, 2012, 2018, 2020, 2021, and 2023.

 

The hit rate for QBs taken #1:

 

5/6*(Eli, Luck, Mayfield, Burrow, Lawrence are hits. Couch bust. Young too early to tell. Even if he's a bust, 5/7 is still a great hit rate).

 

Hit rate for QBs taken #2:

 

4/7(McNabb, Rivers, Tua, Stroud hits. RG3, Darnold, and Wilson busts, although RG3 is kind of an interesting case but ultimately he was a bust.).

 

Hit rate for QBs taken #3:

 

4/6*(Big Ben, Tannehill, Allen, Herbert hits. Akili Smith and Lance busts. AR15 too early to tell).

 

The overall hit rate for taking one of the top 3 QBs in a strong QB class is 13/19, with 2 too early to tell. That's a current hit rate of 68%. Even if you wanna call Young and Richardson busts, that's 13/21 which is still around 62%.

 

Other notes: In 5 of the 6 years, at least one QB taken after the top 3 was a hit. 1999: Culpepper. 2004: Schaub. 2012: Wilson and Cousins. 2018: Jackson. 2020: Love and Hurts. 2023 is obviously too early to tell, but Levis has looked decent early.

 

2021 is looking like the oddball year. Basically every QB taken after QB1(Lawrence) has been a bust. Its just looking like that was the fluky fools gold QB draft class.

 

Conclusion: If you have a shot at a QB in a perceived QB rich draft class, go for it, because your chance of hitting on one is actually fairly high.

 

In fairness to '21, I don't think Mac Jones and Justin Fields are busts. Justin Fields is an elite athlete who produced 1 quality season in 3. Mac Jones has produced 1 quality season in 3. In both of their cases, their surrounding talent was garbage in 5 of 6 combined seasons overall (Mac Jones playmakers have always been dog ----, Fields improved a bit in '23 after being god awful in '21 and '22). Wilson is a bust, I think that's obvious, injury or no, Lance has been a bust, but Jones and Fields still carry legit draft capital for the purpose of trades, I think that's one of the ways you know they have value. Teams would trade a lot for Fields, and probably close to Howell level goodies for Mac. '21 was definitely weird as hell, all 5 have disappointed and none have hit big, but only 2 of the guys look like certfiable busts right now. It's kinda like '18 where Allen and Lamar hit, nobody could decide what Baker was (and they still can't), and Rosen and Darnold flamed out horribly. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, mh86 said:

Every year. People get these crazy ideas about stockpiling draft picks as if it’s the easiest thing in the world. My favorite is the ones who study every (or in most cases, one) mock draft or reading between the lines of what coaches and GMs say and can declare they know who the pick will be. 

 

Bro. My uncle's nephew's friend's sister's roommate's dog has a sitter name Joanna that said...hold up, I think it was babysitter not dogsitter. Anyways, I've heard it from a very reliable source, you can trust me.

[WashingtonRedWolves]

3 hours ago, ExoDus84 said:

 

That's a wild assumption. Picking a QB is a crap shoot at best. Maybe we let them jump ahead of us and they grab the next Malik Willis.

I sure hope our strategy isn’t to pray the others screw up around us…