The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[DogofWar1]

 

Edited March 25 by DogofWar1

[Jumbo]

40 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

 

Lol…

 

They're all gone; you guys have successfully squeezed out most of the opposing views, and it's now a full-on Maye love fest around here these days. 
 

Im good with either.  

 

 

Are you suggesting those with pro Daniels or other qb preferences apparently haven't the backbone to deal with not being able to pull people who prefer Maye over to their side, and with that failure, don't have the interest or character to continue the discussion" if indeed they are "all gone" as you stated?

 

Imv, you're demeaning them, specifically in thinking they must believe that discussion should result in getting everyone to agree with you or it's not worth doing, and also making some passive aggressive insinuation against pro Maye folks with your chosen phrase "squeezed them out."

 

Do you actually see most Daniels supporters  that way? Do you think they were unfairly treated or outright oppressed and victimized here?

 

"....like most opposing views...."

 

Do you think "opposing views" are repressed here by some group think consensus on any topic?

 

".. .and now it's a full on Maye love fest..."

 

 

I can quickly name a dozen reg posters here who don't fit that description. 🙄

 

Taking the view that you're not deliberately trolling half the time, I question whether you ever read this board with any kind of coherent and accurate take on it's dynamics. I say that simply based on reality versus many of your posted comments here over time.

 

 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

2 hours ago, Chump Bailey said:

More disgusting Drake love...

Learn to love it.

[BayouBrave86]

I think JD5 and Maye will be the best two QBs from this draft. Hope we end up with Jayden but happy with Maye. 

[bird_1972]

57 minutes ago, illone said:

Semi bold prediction:

 

Jayden Daniels drops out of the top ten... raiders take him at 13. 

 

Not out of the realm of possibility if he weighs in at like 175 at his pro day or something like that...

[CommanderInTheRye]

4 minutes ago, bird_1972 said:

 

Not out of the realm of possibility if he weighs in at like 175 at his pro day or something like that...

 

 

Good lord!

 

I was thinking worst case the kid comes in at 205 pounds. lol

 

If after 3 months of presumably trying to bulk up he ends up tipping the Toledos at a paltry 175 pounds... sheesh I don't see anybody drafting him in the first or second round-- unless it's to play WR.

[bird_1972]

1 minute ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

Good lord!

 

I was thinking worst case the kid comes in at 205 pounds. lol

 

If after 3 months of presumably trying to bulk up he ends up tipping the Toledos at a paltry 175 pounds... sheesh I don't see anybody drafting him in the first or second round-- unless it's to play WR.

 

Was being purposefully snarky

 

More realistic bear case is that he comes in between 190-200. I think that would still raise some red flags about durability given his playing style.

[mistertim]

7 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

I saw some crazy stat a couple of days ago that he threw less than 50 passes in the 4th quarter in all of his games COMBINED this season. That is ridiculous. 

 

According to ESPN splits data, he threw it a total of 34 times in the 4th quarter. That's a really low number and indicates to me a possible "We have the lead, just play it safe and don't blow it" mentality, so it might not mean much. That said, it raises questions as to his ability to put the team on his back in crunch time. But none of these questions about him are new ones, so I digress.

 

Maye threw 85 total times in the 4th quarter, the most of all the top 4 by a fair margin. That likely indicates that UNC was often playing from behind (which is factually accurate in many cases) and that they had to rely on Mayes arm a lot.

 

Now, for anyone who may think "OMG Tim is so in the tank for Maye and never says anything bad about him", there's a very concerning number within that 4th quarter throw stat: 2 TDS and 5 INTs.

 

To me that could indicated a few things. In order of level of concern they are:

 

1) Maye is in a position where he feels he has to play hero ball to bail his team out and it leads to pushing the ball to guys who are too covered (his receivers didn't get much separation in general, anyway)

 

2) Maye's sometimes questionable decision making rears its head more when they're in a hole and riding on his arm

 

3) Maye is simply not clutch and makes tons of mistakes when things are in crunch time as he can't handle the pressure

 

I'm leaning more towards a combination of 1 and 2 as I've watched lots of his cutups and games and have also seen him make some incredibly clutch throws in crunch time. But 3 is still a possibility and would basically be a death sentence for him IMO.

 

6 hours ago, rockluc said:

They went 2 full quarters with only a FG to show for it before finally salting it away late. Defensively dominant but the offense was stagnant for the most part once he got hurt. 

 

This is incredibly disingenuous. Stop it. Blake Corum ran for 145 yards and 2 TDs in that game. Their offense was not "stagnant" without McCarthy's arm.

Edited March 26 by mistertim

[CommanderInTheRye]

Just now, bird_1972 said:

 

Was being purposefully snarky

 

More realistic bear case is that he comes in between 190-200. I think that would still raise some red flags about durability given his playing style.

 

 

Got me! lol

 

It just goes to prove the old adage that the most gullible people are the biggest practical jokers themselves.

 

 

[SoCalSkins]

9 minutes ago, bird_1972 said:

 

Not out of the realm of possibility if he weighs in at like 175 at his pro day or something like that...

Last year at this point, 30 days before the draft, Will Levis was favored to be drafted 2nd overall by sports books just like Jayden Daniels is now. 
 

2 years ago, everyone claimed that Malik Willis was a sure bet as a top 10 pick.

 

i would not be shocked to see Jayden fall to the Raiders at all and even further if Antonio Pierce wasn’t the coach there. 

[bird_1972]

2 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

Last year at this point, 30 days before the draft, Will Levis was favored to be drafted 2nd overall by sports books just like Jayden Daniels is now. 
 

2 years ago, everyone claimed that Malik Willis was a sure bet as a top 10 pick.

 

i would not be shocked to see Jayden fall to the Raiders at all and even further if Antonio Pierce wasn’t the coach there. 

 

We don't know if AP really is as high on him as he said. It is the lying season, after all...

[RWJ]

6 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

Good lord!

 

I was thinking worst case the kid comes in at 205 pounds. lol

 

If after 3 months of presumably trying to bulk up he ends up tipping the Toledos at a paltry 175 pounds... sheesh I don't see anybody drafting him in the first or second round-- unless it's to play WR.

I would think it would be hard for him to keep his weight on playing week in and out.  Man, if Daniels weighed 220 and held that weight. 

[HTTRDynasty]

What I and other posters here have been saying for months at this point...

 

 

Edited March 26 by HTTRDynasty

[Skinsinparadise]

Keim’s new podcast with Graziano

 

A. Both think the team is still deciding 

 

B. Graziano goes if you dont like a QB you dont have to take one but suggeted hes heard Washingyon does,  And he gets the vibe this team indeed likes the QBs and those 2 are Maye and Daniels

 

C. He suggested those 2 over McCarthy 

 

D. Keim believes there is some division within the FO between preferring Maye and Daniels

 

E. Keim hears around the league more pro Daniels takes than Maye but does here some who prefer Maye

 

F. Graziano hears many divergent opinions around the league on the qbs including some who believe Maye is the best QB in the draft 

 

G. Main concerns about Daniels is can he physicalky survive in the league and some are concerned sbout his age 

 

H. Main concern about Maye is the drop off from the sesson before

 

I. Graziano mentioned the Vikings might be hot for Daniels 

Edited March 26 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

12 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

Last year at this point, 30 days before the draft, Will Levis was favored to be drafted 2nd overall by sports books just like Jayden Daniels is now. 
 

2 years ago, everyone claimed that Malik Willis was a sure bet as a top 10 pick.

 

i would not be shocked to see Jayden fall to the Raiders at all and even further if Antonio Pierce wasn’t the coach there. 

Yeah there are always insane fluctuations among media perception. In 2018 at around this time, Sam Darnold was projected to go #1 as well.

 

Its just teams doing due diligence + standard smoke screen stuff. That and NOBODY has any idea what we're doing because we aren't as leak prone as we used to be.

 

Like its obvious the Vikings want either Maye or McCarthy. The Giants like McCarthy, but probably not enough to trade up for him, but would trade up for Maye, and ultimately would be happy with Nabors. The Cards are sitting at 4 and taking Harrison. The Pats are taking the best QB left, likely Daniels, at 3.

 

In a lot of ways, we kinda can determine the draft.

[Chump Bailey]

28 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Learn to love it.

 

If we draft him and he turns out not to be the stiff who cannot diagnose coverage my gut tells me he is, then I will gladly do so!

 

 

[Jumbo]

28 minutes ago, BayouBrave86 said:

I think JD5 and Maye will be the best two QBs from this draft. Hope we end up with Jayden but happy with Maye. 

 

I agree that any of the three, and several of the others frequently mentioned, can be big stars. And they may not. Nothing is a guarantee to me.

 

But I do like our chances whoever it turns out to be. It's gonna be a more legitimately hopeful season than we've had in a long time. 

[illone]

40 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I'm not trying to "squeeze" anyone out. I'm just always curious if people will even RESPOND to the stuff that SiP posts about Maye and the stats about things like big time throws, throws into tight windows, throws to the middle in the 2nd level and how Maye is by far tops in all of them. You know, all those things that are super important in the NFL passing game.

 

And I'm not sure how you can say that about a "Maye love fest". There are still plenty of people in here who are all about Daniels or McCarthy and are quite vocal about it.

 

 

I've openly acknowledged that most of Maye's vanity stats are going to "WOW" you. In my case I dont need numbers to tell me he can spin the football. I remember the first time I saw him play he was throwing dimes all over the field. Granted it was against Florida Atlantic, or some small school with ZERO nfl talent, but thats not the point.  He flashed, and continued to flash in most of his games.  He is a prototype QB prospect in almost every way. Size, arm strength, running ability. On paper he has it all.

 

I talked about this back on page 47 or somewhere way back in the early days of this thread, but to me playing QB in the NFL isnt about those things.

 

It's kind of similar to the "McCarthy wins stat". In the end, doesnt mean much, and neither do Maye's vanity stats or even some of his advanced metrics.

 

Daniel Jeremiah and Joel Klatt talked about this earlier today actually.  I'll paraphrase DJ here:

 

"You arent drafting what a kid did in school, you are drafting based on a projection of what you think he can become"

 

Why I have a tough time projecting Maye is his performance in big games, and two key areas that dont pass the eye ball test for me:

 

1. He tends to drift backwards and create his own pressure, making it tougher to throw kind of like Sam Howell does.  Not sure if its a coincidence they came from the same offense, but there are some wild similarities between the two when it comes to bailing on a play too early.  (JJ on the other hand hardly ever generates his own pressure, instead casually moves up or sideways in the pocket to create throwing lanes. I got the sense that he was always attacking, whereas Maye retreated early on way too many plays).

 

2. Footwork. In the games I watched he relied on his arm WAY too much. He doesnt set a consistent base and typically throws from awkward angles despite not needing to. Not sure how much of him you have watched, but his footwork is terrible and as of right now does not translate to any pro offense I am familiar with. Of course most NFL coaches will accept this and coach it out of him, but it seems risky to draft a player that high with such poor footwork and mechanics.  JJ McCarty on the other hand, even though he was not asked to do as much as Maye, his mechanics and footwork are light years ahead of Maye despite the vanity stats being much lower. I'd challenge you to go look at 3rd and 4th down conversion percentage, which is something NFL teams look at heavily.  Add in the fact that JJ won big games with his arm, converted key 3rd + 4th down plays with the game on the line, I think that is why you are seeing JJ rise up the boards because people are actually starting to realize how well he played even though he was not asked to throw it 40+ times per game like the other QBs.

 

Adding to the "big game" thing with Maye. He tends to fold and force throws in big games. Not saying its all his fault, football is a team game afterall,  but in two games vs Clemson which is one of the better defenses in his conference, he threw 53% with 1 TD and 3 Picks. Not good, and both of those games are scheduled at the end of the year when the pressure is the highest. Had he performed better in those game he could have elevated the program perhaps even into the playoffs.

 

One thing i have noticed recently is that the stats change depending on where you are obtaining the data. I've read many places that suggest Maye attacks the middle of the field, but Ive also seen plenty of numbers to suggest McCarthy was the best in that department. This is why I have a hard time relying on twitter posts with random numbers in them. Usually it's just cherry picked data to form a pre-built narrative.

 

In my case I have watched enough college and pro football to go beyond the numbers. Sips numbers are definitely compelling, and Id argue his highlight reel is even more compelling, but when you start looking closer at the tape and game situations is when I start to project this kid lower than most here.

 

Anyways, here is the segment I mentioned above. Starts around 4 minutes, but the specific quote is around 7:30:

 

 

[RWJ]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Keim’s new podcast with Graziano

 

G. Main concerns about Daniels is can he physicalky survive in the league

 

 

There is my only concern but it's true what was posted above, I believe that when pressured he does drop his eyes and runs and that's not good.  

[HTTRDynasty]

 

 

[Warhead36]

I wouldn't classify Watson has hyper mobile relative to the rest.

[Skinsinparadise]

That podcast is the 2nd time Keim hss slipped that there isnt a consensus in that building between Daniels and Maye while also stressing they havent decided yet 

 

Graziano implied the same 

 

Both somewhat implied those 2 are ahead of McCarthy with the team and talked about McCarthy in the context of a trade down without suggesting they are likely to do it 

Edited March 26 by Skinsinparadise

[lovemaskins]

8 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

 

I agree that any of the three, and several of the others frequently mentioned, can be big stars. And they may not. Nothing is a guarantee to me.

 

But I do like our chances whoever it turns out to be. It's gonna be a more legitimately hopeful season than we've had in a long time. 

I’m ready for wait to be over and we know who we have so we can argue more about who was right and wrong 😑. 

 

I kid, I’m really excited to be a fan again and anticipate going to training camp so I can sit in the hot sun, and fuss and cheer them on like an old man! 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[mistertim]

@illone I find it a bit odd that you think those things are "vanity stats" that don't mean anything when it comes to evaluating if a college guy can succeed in the NFL.

 

Big time throws, tight window throws, throws to the 2nd level in the middle of the field are all things that are directly tied to the NFL and success in it, because all three are extremely important in the NFL and are absolutely required of QBs there, because so many offenses rely on the ability to attack the middle and because the windows in general in the NFL are going to be much smaller than they were in college.

 

Does that mean Maye will automatically be a success in the NFL? Of course not. But it means he already has a leg up because you already know he can make those NFL level throws both by seeing it on tape and in the stat sheet. With guys who don't have those stats and that on their tape, you really have no idea as to how or whether they'll be able to adapt to those required skills and throws in the NFL.

 

That's why I made a point in a post not long ago that when it comes to the Maye vs Daniels questions. Which is more likely fixable? Maye's footwork, or Daniels's propensity for not throwing after breaking the pocket and not having many tight window anticipation throws down the middle? For me I'd take the guy who's footwork I have to fix because that's just a repetition thing.