The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Coopskin44]

There is no way we’re trading up to #1 with all the damn holes we have on this roster.You really think Peters in his first move in the draft is going to give up more draft picks to move up from 2 to 1?Thats media BS talking about these QB’s.I really think Daniel’s is the only QB I would take at 2.Williams seems like to much drama.Maye stares at his receivers longer than I stare and at Victoria’s Secret model.Anyways North Carolina QB’s Trubisky,Howell and Maye no thanks.Peter’s might not like any of the so called top 3.If not Daniel’s I can see trading back loading  up the roster and taking a QB later.Just my opinion 🤷‍♂️

[mh86]

2 minutes ago, Coopskin44 said:

There is no way we’re trading up to #1 with all the damn holes we have on this roster.You really think Peters in his first move in the draft is going to give up more draft picks to move up from 2 to 1?Thats media BS talking about these QB’s.I really think Daniel’s is the only QB I would take at 2.Williams seems like to much drama.Maye stares at his receivers longer than I stare and at Victoria’s Secret model.Anyways North Carolina QB’s Trubisky,Howell and Maye no thanks.Peter’s might not like any of the so called top 3.If not Daniel’s I can see trading back loading  up the roster and taking a QB later.Just my opinion 🤷‍♂️

I don’t know what’s going on here, but no one’s trading with the bears. Those turds are taking Williams and anything else is just a pipe dream.

[Andre The Giant]

 

[clskinsfan]

6 minutes ago, Coopskin44 said:

Anyways North Carolina QB’s Trubisky,Howell and Maye no thanks

This worthless argument again? How did the Ohio State curse work out for Stroud last year?

6 minutes ago, mh86 said:

I don’t know what’s going on here, but no one’s trading with the bears. Those turds are taking Williams and anything else is just a pipe dream.

There is some smoke coming out that they might prefer Maye. If thats the case they would most certainly trade down to us and still get their guy. 

[mh86]

11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This worthless argument again? How did the Ohio State curse work out for Stroud last year?

There is some smoke coming out that they might prefer Maye. If thats the case they would most certainly trade down to us and still get their guy. 

I understand but it’s just that, smoke. It’s that time of year where every other week there’s shakeup at top QB (really top 5) to keep it interesting and enable discussion. It happens every year and although sometimes there’s credence, it’s just not likely 

[Conn]

1 hour ago, RandyHolt said:

Thanks for chiming in. I'll take the under haha.

 

Football player analysis is ALL about numbers now.  Instead of simple draft slots we got lots of time to quantify % chance of making their NFL comparable, or whatever make sense to project.  Instead we will be stuck with you gotta take caleb first overall did you see the tape?? and no numbers to quantify that.

There is no way to quantify that. 
 

Lots of really cool analytics out there. They can all inform the discussion, you can quantify a lot. But there have been lots of attempts to create the mythical franchise QB predictor model. 
 

It doesn’t exist. All the various data are just pieces of the puzzle. Like tape. Like medicals. Like the interviews we aren’t privy to.
 

Nothing can truly quantify whether a guy will even be a good enough NFL QB to be worth the pick—never mind any attempt to quantify their percentage chance to reach the NFL production of their upper level skill-set comparables (using your example: Caleb Williams to Patrick Mahomes). 

It’s not possible. 
 

It doesn’t mean the best we can do is “herp derp look at his highlights man, we have to take him”. We’ve come a long way from those days. But there is still no way to quantify what you’re asking. The hit rate is low no matter what. Scouting is hard…scouting QB’s is harder. And yet you still have to take your swing. And you help your chances by having an aligned organizational plan for the particular player (which we’ve never had in 30+ years). 

[mistertim]

6 hours ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

I had been a big fan of Maye as my choice for a while, but very in on Daniels now, and Kiper captures my sentiment here pretty well. Maye had 4 really bad games against his top competition, where they applied a lot of pressure and his accuracy vanished. Daniels also played against top competition, got a lot of pressure, but he handled the pressure almost flawlessly - either running, finding the open receiver and hitting them with accuracy, or throwing it away.

Simple fact: Among the top 3 QBs, Daniels had the highest accuracy and lowest "turnover worthy play" percentage, by far. This is over two years also, not just one. Summarized, against top defenses, JD took much better care of the ball and still put up the numbers and points, whereas both CW and DM had serious struggles when they played good defenses. This reason puts JD as my pick at #2 overall.
 

I get it, we are projecting the younger, less experienced guy, to grow into the same production as the older guy. But its not a guarantee. Whereas Daniels HAS already grown into that mature QB level. Its not just projections though, which are hard no matter who we're looking at. Maye's flaws are ones that tend to be deal breakers in the NFL. When he gets pressured, like Howell did all year, his accuracy disappears and he throws bad balls, bad decisions. When Daniels gets pressured, he stays calm, and makes good decisions - pass, run or throw it away. This may or may not be just experience, but it may speak more to their overall inherent ability and personality. Hard to predict, which is why NFL minds get it wrong so often.

 

There are things I definitely like about Daniels as a prospect, but I think we also need to remember that he was 1) behind one of the best OL in the nation and 2) throwing to two WRs who are both pretty much locks to be taken in the 1st round in April. He had the best receiver pool in the country.

 

Maye was behind a **** OL and was throwing to a stable of receivers who will likely never hear their names called on draft day.

 

Also, curious where you got the "lowest turnover worthy play percentage by far" thing. PFF has Daniels at 1.6% and Maye at 1.8%. Daniels also had a 20.2% pressure to sack conversion rate vs Maye at 19.5%.

Edited February 8 by mistertim

[dyst]

Every so often, I'll go to Youtube and watch the most recent highlight videos of the top three QBs. I try my best to convince myself Maye and Daniels would be a great pick (which ultimately it may be) but each time I watch clips; Caleb just seems the most impressive. Tough job these talent evaluators have.

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

I’ve got Caleb Williams chances of being the next Mahomes at zero percent. 
 

Mahomes is a unicorn.

 

Also, I would’ve rather hired a Shanny tree system OC. It’s great that Maye/Howell have experience in Kingsbury’s offense. Only problem is his offense sucks. 

Edited February 8 by AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy

[illone]

3 hours ago, MartinC said:

 

Count me as equally shocked. I doubt we trade him - he probably has more value to us than anyone else given he played in a similar system to Kingsbury's at UNC. He knows the system and has starting experience - hes a good backup option on a rookie deal. 

 

 

Exactly right. Howell has plenty of roster value at this point. I'm dying to know how the new staff views him 🤓

 

But, if someone dangles a 2nd rounder Id jump on that thing like a good soldier on a hand grenade. 

 

 

[SonnySideUp]

I love reading idiots like this. It's why this year's offseason is going to be so much fun.

 

https://deadspin.com/caleb-williams-josh-fields-nfl-chicago-bears-commanders-1851235854

 

>>If Chicago can’t exploit Washington’s obvious desire for Caleb Williams, somebody needs to be fired...

 

...There are enough patsies in need of a quarterback that Chicago Bears GM Ryan Poles would be foolish to not take the many godfather offers that will come his way before the NFL Draft on April 25. Chief among them are the Washington Commanders, who have a new owner, new GM and new coach desperately trying to reset the culture. With the hire of Kliff Kiingsbury as the offensive coordinator, Washington might as well write “Mark” on its forehead.

 

A year ago, the Bears fleeced the Carolina Panthers for a No. 1 receiver, this year’s No. 1 pick and more because David Tepper has the patience of a billionaire. It was the kind of move that can expedite the trajectory of a franchise, and they can do it again. It’d be one thing if Justin Fields was unable to take advantage of the assets Pole provided him, but D.J. Moore surpassed 1,300 yards and endorsed his QB in the process...<<

[BrentMeisterGeneral]

If ... Peters, Quinn, Kingsbury all agree that Caleb is QB1, then seriously negotiate a trade up. If not then don't.

 

I know we have many holes etc etc. but no-one seriously believes they're all going to be plugged in one off season anyway, get the QB right and the rest will fall into place over time.

[Darc Requiem]

On 2/6/2024 at 11:42 AM, illone said:

 

He definitely seems like most of the things you mentioned, but he did beat Texas, Oregon and Notre Dame. Id consider all those teams elite, wouldnt you?

He lead his team to victory against Notre Dame in 2022. When did he win against Oregon? They lost to Bo Nix and Oregon last year. I don't see game between Oregon and USC in 2022. The last Texas and USC game I see is 2018.

[Coopskin44]

If you honestly think we’re going to give up draft picks to move up one spot it’s not happening.We have to many holes on the roster and Peter’s first move of the draft isn’t going to be doing that.

[BrentMeisterGeneral]

26 minutes ago, Coopskin44 said:

If you honestly think we’re going to give up draft picks to move up one spot it’s not happening.We have to many holes on the roster and Peter’s first move of the draft isn’t going to be doing that.

 

Wouldn't dismiss it out of hand. If the cost is a second this year and a first next year, Peters might have enough confidence in his own scouting ability to find pieces further down the draft to surround a 1st overall pick with, especially if there's a consensus slam dunk selection amongst himself Quinn and Kingsbury at 1.

Edited February 8 by BrentMeisterGeneral

[Coopskin44]

Peter’s told Logan Paulson all our draft picks are huge.Just don’t see us giving up draft picks to move up one spot with a roster full of holes.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, Coopskin44 said:

Peter’s told Logan Paulson all our draft picks are huge.Just don’t see us giving up draft picks to move up one spot with a roster full of holes.

 

Yeah I mentioned Keim said something similar, he doesn't suspect they trade the farm to move up.  I also don't get the impression that their early leaning is to trade down either at least not in the first.

 

I think they go QB at #2.  Maybe trade down some in the 2nd to add picks.  But will see its early in the process.  And their public stance should be anything is possible of course -- you always do that to keep other teams guessing.

[Skinsinparadise]

8 hours ago, Conn said:

There is no way to quantify that. 
 

Lots of really cool analytics out there. They can all inform the discussion, you can quantify a lot. But there have been lots of attempts to create the mythical franchise QB predictor model. 
 

It doesn’t exist. All the various data are just pieces of the puzzle. Like tape. Like medicals. Like the interviews we aren’t privy to.
 

Nothing can truly quantify whether a guy will even be a good enough NFL QB to be worth the pick—never mind any attempt to quantify their percentage chance to reach the NFL production of their upper level skill-set comparables (using your example: Caleb Williams to Patrick Mahomes). 

It’s not possible. 
 

It doesn’t mean the best we can do is “herp derp look at his highlights man, we have to take him”. We’ve come a long way from those days. But there is still no way to quantify what you’re asking. The hit rate is low no matter what. Scouting is hard…scouting QB’s is harder. And yet you still have to take your swing. And you help your chances by having an aligned organizational plan for the particular player (which we’ve never had in 30+ years). 

 

Yep.  Arians in his book about bs among others talks about this.  Three things in particular are impossible to guess until you have those QBs in your building.

 

A.  Speed-vision of processing what you see on the field.  Reading defenses-setting protections-exploiting what you see and it all happens in 3 seconds or less.  As Arians goes they can all do it if you give them enough time but you don't have that time.  So its about the Qbs who see it all fast and can react to it all fast.

 

B.  Work ethic.  Both as to studying the opposing defense and as to as Arians likens it to sharpening your golf swing.  You got to be obssesive about sharpening your golf swing to be a great golfer.  Ditto with mechanics for a QB.

 

C. Personality.  Leadership-toughness-ability to handle adversity.

Edited February 8 by Skinsinparadise

[Renegade7]

There's maybe smoke at best on this...still...

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, Renegade7 said:

There's maybe smoke at best on this...still...

 

 

 

Already debunked a page or so before on this thread.

[Renegade7]

7 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Already debunked a page or so before on this thread.

 

Figures, felt like it was smoke at best versus an actual fire (I'm still more okay with it then I thought I'd be)

[KDawg]

Be ready for “The Bears are looking at Drake Maye” and “The Bears really like Jayden Daniels” soon. They will want to manufacture trade possibilities from NE/Washington so they don’t feel comfortable sitting tight.

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Figures, felt like it was smoke at best versus an actual fire (I'm still more okay with it then I thought I'd be)

 

I liked Fields in the draft.  But for me what a let down that would be.  Pretty crappy QB in the pros but great runner essentially.  

 

Klingsbury would have to fix the dude superfast.   Possible?  Maybe.  He'd need to be extended for his 5th season now.  So his salary already jumps I believe into the mid 20s next year.  And then I gather he would demand bigger money after that.  So the only thing I'd like about it is it would mean this FO thinks they can go far this season or perhaps next.  Because you won't have the room to build the team on a cheap QB contract. 

 

Same reason why most think the Bears trade Fields.  It's Caleb but also its the cheap QB contract that gives you a window.  Our window would be basically one season, 2024 on a cheap contract.  Unless Fields sucks and then you let him go for nothing but in that case its not a hot trade.  So for me if its Fields the idea is we are a SB threat in 2024 or worse case 2025.  Not saying you can't build a team with a big QB salary on the books but its not as easy.

 

 

Edited February 8 by Skinsinparadise

[mac8887]

26 minutes ago, Coopskin44 said:

Peter’s told Logan Paulson all our draft picks are huge.Just don’t see us giving up draft picks to move up one spot with a roster full of holes.

Yes but huge could mean several different things. They could be a huge asset using them to trade for players, they can be a huge asset for trading up in the draft, they can be a huge asset for trading back and acquiring more picks. They are also a huge asset to drafting players. Huge can mean many things

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, mac8887 said:

Yes but huge could mean several different things. They could be a huge asset using them to trade for players, they can be a huge asset for trading up in the draft, they can be a huge asset for trading back and acquiring more picks. They are also a huge asset to drafting players. Huge can mean many things

 

Keim said talking to some in that building, they really really really want to use this draft to rebuild this team.  He's said this multiple times in the context of trading up for Caleb which Keim suspects they won't do for that reason.  If I am going with early tea leaves.  And granted its early and things can of course change -- they take a QB at 2, and don't trade up.