The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

31 minutes ago, Ghost of said:

McCarthy used them enough. As I watched the Championship game, I said he was going to have to run to get comfortable again. Apparently backed up near the end zone, he had already recognized Cover 2 (maybe Tampa 2) and exploited it for a huge gain to get them out of trouble. I see a guy like Josh Allen and while I don't think you want JJ running like that or trying to truck people, he can definitely use his legs while he gets comfortable. I found that he often didn't run but instead ran outside on play action of some kind or another and did well on those plays on short and intermediate throws (between layers of the defense.) Having heard him break down what he saw that caused him to throw to Roman Wilson vs. OSU, or that he should run to get out of trouble in the title game, I think he's much more adept than his career has shown (in the film room.)

 

I want guys who mix fantastic physical skills with demonstrated results in winning and the sort of temperament that lends itself to leading and winning as a quarterback.  Arguably, a lot of guys have great tools and people salivate over but they haven't shown they are winners.  Others may be winners or good leaders like Colt McCoy was, but lack the tools to consistently deliver. McCarthy not only has both but grew up in an organization that develops players and team chemistry (at least for now, if Harbaugh leaves who knows what effect that has).

 

He ran for 202 yards which is OK.  And I know Michigan runs the ball plenty and in turn don't need McCarthy that often as part of the party.  I used to run track so I am not bad at guessing someone's speed.  He strikes me 4.5 or maybe even 4.45.  Guys with that kind of speed tend to put up 500 yards plus.  I know he's not the biggest guy but with wheels like that if dudes like Alex Smith can run for 500 yards a season in the NFL, McCarthy IMO can do the same.

 

IMO his athleticsm including throwing on the move, off platform (boots, etc), is a key part of his tool bet that can help him emerge especially early on in the NFL.  The game that turned me on to him that i talked in some detail on the draft thread about McCarthy was the one against Ohio State in 2022.  

[ThatNFLChick]

34 minutes ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

Not sure how anyone could love McCarthy but not like Maye. Maybe we’re looking at different things. 
 

And I like McCarthy. 

 

I feel like I need to watch more McCarthy because I am not getting it at all. 

 

Matt Waldman REALLY likes McCarthy and isn't high on Maye. He talked about it here:

 

 

The reason I pay attention to him is because this was his scouting report on Mahomes:

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2018/09/22/chiefs-qb-patrick-mahomes-matt-waldmans-rsp-pre-nfl-draft-scouting-report/

 

And this was his scouting report on Lamar:

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2019/11/17/matt-waldmans-rsp-pre-draft-nfl-scouting-report-on-lamar-jackson-baltimore/

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Yeah, I listened to it as well.  I was taking him seriously until I heard him say Maye hasn't ever made any plays that "wowed" him and after he compared Daniels to CJ Stroud.

I listed as well.  I typically have the same opinion of all ex-GMs who have opinions on anything: if you were good at your job you'd still be doing your job. I kindof went on a rant about Spielman when he was on with ... Galdi?  Maybe?  Somebody.  And then Harris went and hired him to be on the search committee after I tattooed "idiot loser" across his forehead, which wasn't a great look for me.  But, eh, those are the breaks, I guess.

 

So, let's look at Mueller and see if he really should have any credibility:

- From 2000 - 2002, he was the GM of the Saints.  They weren't terrible.  They went 10-6, 7-9, 9-7 before he was fired. I believe he hired Jim Haslett as HC.  

- Hew was out of football for 2003-2004.  

- He was the GM of some BAD Miami dolphin teams.  Though some of that was Saban, who was the coach and had final personnel say.  Ironically, Mueller praised to high heavens about his personnel prowess.  They went 9-7, 6-10, 1-15, then they hired Bill Parcells who promptly fired Mueller. Maybe Mueller didn't think anybody would look up their records?

- He was hired as a Senior Personnel Executive by the Chargers, working for (Complete and total ass hat) GM A.J. Smith. He stayed in the #2 role until he stopped working for the Chargers in 2018.  A whole lot of bad or middling teams in there.

 

I grant that Mueller has experience.  He was a GM for 5 years from 2000-2007 for either average or bad teams. 

 

How he has the credibility he does I'm not sure.  But he's seen as a real subject matter expert. 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

38 minutes ago, redskin301 said:

I’ll pass on Daniels 2 acl injury’s already sometimes the best ability is availability

 

Daniels had 2 ACLs?  Do you mean Penix?

[KDawg]

29 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Daniels had 2 ACLs?  Do you mean Penix?

I hope Daniels had 2 acls…

[The Consigliere]

If we brought in Johnson, I wonder what he'd want to do in terms of playmakers. They have been very, very busy. 

2021: Steal Amon Ra St. Brown in round 4.

2022: Grab injured Jameson Williams in round 1, trade TJ Hockenson, a 4th, and a conditional future 4th for 2nd round pick to vikes. 

2023: Sign David Montgomery off of Chicago as bell cow, overdraft stud Jahmyr Gibbs to be their Marshall Faulk? 12th overall, and steal best young TE in the league Sam LaPorta w/the Hockenson pick. 

 

I'm sure there is more they did (like build that great OL). But man did they get busy: added two stud WR's, 2 RB's, and a star TE in just three offseasons. 

 

We don't have much in terms of playmakers:

Aging McLaurin

Dotson falling off

Aging Logan thomas and crap TE room beyond him.

JAG athlete but efficient runner Brian Robinson at RB

 

Awful OL.

 

I wonder how he'd want to attack that. TE's are reasonably priced in FA compared to WR's who are now very expensive. RB's on second contracts have been a terrible invesstment in recent years. Interior OL is cheaper in terms of draft capital and free agent money than OT's. 

 

So how will he attack these problems? 

 

This RB class in the draft is hot garbage, the TE class is meh after Bowers (not horrible, but definitely not 2023 either), the WR class is deep in terms of top end prospects at least through about 10+ guys (who would normally go top 50ish), OL class is rich in OT talent, not sure about Guards (sounds thin up top), and Center.

 

He knows this is a multiyear project, not something he can turn around in one year. I'm not sure how good the '25 class in general is beyond QB which is reasonable in terms of depth but weak in terms of top end options. Looks like just looking at a devy source, they have WR and RB as reasonably strong in '25, so perhaps RB can be a '25 pursuit (that's what I do with Robinson good to go for 2 more seasons). 

[skinsarethebest]

46 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Sign Kirk for $40m/year and draft Marvin Harrison Jr. at #2?

 

(I wouldn't.  But I'd think about it. Not for very long.  Ok, As long as it took to write that sentence.... I'm done thinking about it.)

 

Another option: trade a second for Fields and draft Harrinson Jr. I am not a Field's fan. So I would think about that one less. 

 

For what it's worth, here are the FA QBs for next year. And my thought of them.

 

- Kirk. "That could be interesting. Could be.  Probably wouldn't be."

- Baker Baker the Touchdown Maker. "Let him drink beer in Tampa."

That's the list of starters who are Free Agents.  Now we go to tier 2:

- Tannehill. "This is not that interesting. But his wife is SMOKING hot.  STILL. So there's that."

- Joe Flacco. "He's really old."

- Jacoby 'Brisket.' "Love to have him back.  As a backup."

- Gardner Minshew. (insert Minshew goosebump meme here.)

 

Then there's "everybody else" who all have the same thought: "Hell No, Stay Away." I bolded a few because they're more interesting than the others.  

Tyrod Taylor, Marcus Mariota, Sam Darnold, Jameis Winston, Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater, Tyler Huntley, Joshua Dobbs (who's going to get paid by somebody to be a backup at worst.) Nate Sudfeld, Blaine Gabbert, Josh Johnson, Kyle Allen, Brandon Allen, Trevor Siemian, A.J. McCarron, Matt Barkley, Mason Rudolph, logan Woodside, Feleipe Franks, Jake Browning, Nathan Rourke, Garrett Gilbert (hey, remember him?)

 

There are at least 5 guys on that list I've never heard of. 

 

Though I saved the best for last.

 

Carson Wentz. 

 

 

Yeah, it has to be a QB at #2.  There are no good options available in FA except Kirk and he's going to be too expensive and older.  Fields is somewhat intreaguing, but he's not great and you'd have to pay him after 1 off-season.  

The same Kirk who crapped the bed against a Giants team with nothing to play for when the playoffs were on the line? The same Kirk who was Captain Choke Artist against any meaningful opponent?  The same Kirk who has the football IQ of a rock? 
 

I know, thankfully you’re not really considering him, right?

 

but I have seen plenty of other people clamoring for him to return to the Commanders.  
I don’t get the Kirk Cousins love.  He is emblematic of why I’ve hated rooting for this franchise these past 10 years.  Overblown hype disguising unabashed mediocrity.  He can take his chest puffing “You Like That!!” and shove it as far as I’m concerned.  He is the polar opposite of the type of QB I would want leading this team in what I hope will be a true resurgence over the next few years.

[Warhead36]

I can understand why people might prefer Daniels over Maye but outright dismissing Maye like hes some tomato can is just silly. He is more than deserving of being taken num 2 overall even in a strong QB class like this one.

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

He ran for 202 yards which is OK.  And I know Michigan runs the ball plenty and in turn don't need McCarthy that often as part of the party.  I used to run track so I am not bad at guessing someone's speed.  He strikes me 4.5 or maybe even 4.45.  Guys with that kind of speed tend to put up 500 yards plus.  I know he's not the biggest guy but with wheels like that if dudes like Alex Smith can run for 500 yards a season in the NFL, McCarthy IMO can do the same.

 

IMO his athleticsm including throwing on the move, off platform (boots, etc), is a key part of his tool bet that can help him emerge especially early on in the NFL.  The game that turned me on to him that i talked in some detail on the draft thread about McCarthy was the one against Ohio State in 2022.  

He ran a 4.80 in high school supposedly, reports are that he ran in the high 4.4's and 4.5's with Michigan, which, I know playerprofiler automatically adds a .05 to (they adjust up college timed runs and pro day scores on the 40 and w/a remarkable consistency they've found that if you average out an extra .05 to a forty on a pro day, you have likely nailed the true speed of a player on a universal laser timed track like at the combine. 

 

So my guess is that JJ is probably somewhere between 4.55 and 4.65 in the 40 which is unusually fast for a QB, but not like hyper athlete fast. I'm one of the weirdos btw, that could never understand how on earth Tom Brady was so freaking slow. His middle sisters were soccer players and ran track at my high school, he played baseball and football, and was slow as molasses. So odd. reminds me of a kid I coached in soccer 15 years ago, trim as could be, good athlete with a snow board, small, low center of gravity, and unbelievably slow. Some people just are, well, incredibly slow. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

8 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I can understand why people might prefer Daniels over Maye but outright dismissing Maye like hes some tomato can is just silly. He is more than deserving of being taken num 2 overall even in a strong QB class like this one.

Is that a saying the kids today say? Like some tomato can?  Or did you make it up?

 

I like tomatoes. But fresh ones. And not on sandwiches. Makes the bread soggy.  I do use canned tomatoes in one pot chicken.  
 

Oh, and yeah, Maye isn’t chopped liver.  

[Darrell Green Fan]

24 minutes ago, skinsarethebest said:

The same Kirk who crapped the bed against a Giants team with nothing to play for when the playoffs were on the line? The same Kirk who was Captain Choke Artist against any meaningful opponent?  The same Kirk who has the football IQ of a rock? 
 

I know, thankfully you’re not really considering him, right?

 

but I have seen plenty of other people clamoring for him to return to the Commanders.  
I don’t get the Kirk Cousins love.  He is emblematic of why I’ve hated rooting for this franchise these past 10 years.  Overblown hype disguising unabashed mediocrity.  He can take his chest puffing “You Like That!!” and shove it as far as I’m concerned.  He is the polar opposite of the type of QB I would want leading this team in what I hope will be a true resurgence over the next few years.

 

 

I don't want him here again either, we need to get the QB of the future.  But it's still funny to me that he is still the best QB this team has had since Joe Theisman but fans hate him far more than Rex Grossman.  

[London Kev]

4 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Here:

 

 

 

Nick Miller might know about QBs and stats but he knows **** all about formatting spreadsheets, so I just can't trust him .

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

I feel like I need to watch more McCarthy because I am not getting it at all. 

 

Matt Waldman REALLY likes McCarthy and isn't high on Maye. He talked about it here:

 

 

The reason I pay attention to him is because this was his scouting report on Mahomes:

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2018/09/22/chiefs-qb-patrick-mahomes-matt-waldmans-rsp-pre-nfl-draft-scouting-report/

 

And this was his scouting report on Lamar:

https://mattwaldmanrsp.com/2019/11/17/matt-waldmans-rsp-pre-draft-nfl-scouting-report-on-lamar-jackson-baltimore/

 

Matt Waldman can be great, and he can be god awful as well. he's a hardcore tape grinder, I used to buy his RSP and post draft RSP to help with dynasty circa 2016-2018, but eventually it became way too hit and miss. He basically can nail guys, and does, but he goes off the board A LOT and often misses really, really, really hard with his calls. Like not a little. A LOT. Sometimes he's spot on, like say, Nick Chubb who he liked just about as much as Barkley, but remember when his WR1 in the much vaunted 2019 class with DK Metcalf AND AJ Brown, was freaking Hakeem Butler? And that isn't the only, WTF was that! level mistake he's made. I like Waldman for his demeanor and class, for his thoroughness, for his willingness to go outside the box, I don't like the fact, but its a reality, that he's as hit and miss as anybody is, and because he does it primarily with tape, I have nothing to lean on but his judgment, which is why I stopped using him for anything other than tape cross checking years ago.

 

He's great at what he does, but no worse, and no better really than any other high end tape grinder. He's had an absolute litany of misses, some of them, absolutely as inexplicable as his hits have been explicable. respect the guy, but I honestly couldn't give less of a ---- of what he thinks of the QB's. It's fine, but just use his eval as a rough guide to the tape perception of guys from a highly detail conscious dude, compare to PFF and others, and then move from there to the analytics people. It's like Greg Cosell, or Lance, or the dude at CBS Brugler (did he leave CBS?), they're good, nice, fine tape grinders, but like Mayock, they miss plenty, and hit plenty, like everyone. Pick your poison among them, or sort through all, or use PFF, but the best idea with these guys is to not get too enamoured with any of them. I am too enamored with Matt Kelley and playerprofiler, and rotoviz, but I also like their clear track record, and the way they put together their evals more. They have bias like everyone, but its so much easier for me to rely on people using tangible #'s and metrics with some degree of track record, than people looking at tape and constantly disagreeing about what is actually happening on it, or to what degree it should matter or not. 

14 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

 

I don't want him here again either, we need to get the QB of the future.  But it's still funny to me that he is still the best QB this team has had since Joe Theisman but fans hate him far more than Rex Grossman.  

If you suck, there's an easy solution. If you're just good enough to lose, while accumulating ridiculous stats, you're a tease. Nothing's worse than the nebulous existence inbetween hope and despair. There's clarity with despair. 

Edited January 22 by The Consigliere

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

I feel like I need to watch more McCarthy because I am not getting it at all. 

 

Matt Waldman REALLY likes McCarthy and isn't high on Maye. He talked about it here:

 

 

The main mock draft boards have Maye listed at worst as the 6th overall player in the draft:

 

Edited January 22 by RWJ

[CommanderInTheRye]

2 hours ago, redskin301 said:

I’ll pass on Daniels 2 acl injury’s already sometimes the best ability is availability

 

 

I thought Penix had two acl injuries plus two shoulder/arm injuries that ended multiple seasons for him?

 

Daniels, to my knowledge, has been amazingly healthy and resilient for a player of his stature (6'4", 210 lbs) and style of play.

 

Please correct me if I'm misguided because if he did have 2 acls that would definitely force me to consider putting him below Maye.

 

 

Edited January 22 by CommanderInTheRye

[redskin301]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Daniels had 2 ACLs?  Do you mean Penix?

I stand corrected my bad I got it wrong 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

I hope Daniels had 2 acls…

 

Didn't Elway play without an ACL?

[clskinsfan]

36 minutes ago, London Kev said:

 

Nick Miller might know about QBs and stats but he knows **** all about formatting spreadsheets, so I just can't trust him .

Who the hell is Nick Miller?

[CommanderInTheRye]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Didn't Elway play without an ACL?

 

 

Learn something new every day...

 

 

"Today, surgical procedures often can repair torn ligaments. But when John hurt his knee [in high school], there was little doctors could do. In 1978, a torn ACL was a career-ending injury for most athletes. But John wasn't like most athletes. For some reason, even without his ACL, his knee remained stable. Although he couldn't play football for the remainder of the season, one month after the operation, John's doctor examined the knee and, stunned, pronounced John fit enough to begin baseball practice. He even gave John the okay to resume his football career in college the following fall. Even without the ACL, John's knee was stronger than most...."

[Skinsinparadise]

35 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

He ran a 4.80 in high school supposedly, reports are that he ran in the high 4.4's and 4.5's with Michigan, which, I know playerprofiler automatically adds a .05 to (they adjust up college timed runs and pro day scores on the 40 and w/a remarkable consistency they've found that if you average out an extra .05 to a forty on a pro day, you have likely nailed the true speed of a player on a universal laser timed track like at the combine. 

 

So my guess is that JJ is probably somewhere between 4.55 and 4.65 in the 40 which is unusually fast for a QB, but not like hyper athlete fast. I'm one of the weirdos btw, that could never understand how on earth Tom Brady was so freaking slow. His middle sisters were soccer players and ran track at my high school, he played baseball and football, and was slow as molasses. So odd. reminds me of a kid I coached in soccer 15 years ago, trim as could be, good athlete with a snow board, small, low center of gravity, and unbelievably slow. Some people just are, well, incredibly slow. 

 

He looks at a minimum sub 4.6.  I am usually good at ballparking it for QBs or Wrs but have a hard time with TEs.  Will see.

 

But in short, McCarthy looks like a dude who can be a bigger threat with his legs in the NFL than he was in college ala Daniel Jones in 2022.

 

 

[ThatNFLChick]

25 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Matt Waldman can be great, and he can be god awful as well. he's a hardcore tape grinder, I used to buy his RSP and post draft RSP to help with dynasty circa 2016-2018, but eventually it became way too hit and miss. He basically can nail guys, and does, but he goes off the board A LOT and often misses really, really, really hard with his calls. Like not a little. A LOT. Sometimes he's spot on, like say, Nick Chubb who he liked just about as much as Barkley, but remember when his WR1 in the much vaunted 2019 class with DK Metcalf AND AJ Brown, was freaking Hakeem Butler? And that isn't the only, WTF was that! level mistake he's made. I like Waldman for his demeanor and class, for his thoroughness, for his willingness to go outside the box, I don't like the fact, but its a reality, that he's as hit and miss as anybody is, and because he does it primarily with tape, I have nothing to lean on but his judgment, which is why I stopped using him for anything other than tape cross checking years ago.

 

He's great at what he does, but no worse, and no better really than any other high end tape grinder. He's had an absolute litany of misses, some of them, absolutely as inexplicable as his hits have been explicable. respect the guy, but I honestly couldn't give less of a ---- of what he thinks of the QB's. It's fine, but just use his eval as a rough guide to the tape perception of guys from a highly detail conscious dude, compare to PFF and others, and then move from there to the analytics people. It's like Greg Cosell, or Lance, or the dude at CBS Brugler (did he leave CBS?), they're good, nice, fine tape grinders, but like Mayock, they miss plenty, and hit plenty, like everyone. Pick your poison among them, or sort through all, or use PFF, but the best idea with these guys is to not get too enamoured with any of them. I am too enamored with Matt Kelley and playerprofiler, and rotoviz, but I also like their clear track record, and the way they put together their evals more. They have bias like everyone, but its so much easier for me to rely on people using tangible #'s and metrics with some degree of track record, than people looking at tape and constantly disagreeing about what is actually happening on it, or to what degree it should matter or not. 

If you suck, there's an easy solution. If you're just good enough to lose, while accumulating ridiculous stats, you're a tease. Nothing's worse than the nebulous existence inbetween hope and despair. There's clarity with despair. 

 

I've only paid attentoon to Waldman's QB takes. Him, Louis Riddick and Chris Simms have an interesting perspective and IMO have a good eye. They miss sometimes but they're not afraid to go against the consensus and take big swings based on what they see in the tape.

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

McCarthy looks like a dude who can be a bigger threat with his legs in the NFL

If he can hold up physically while doing it. He is pretty lanky like Daniels. 

[Ghost of]

I called Tom Brady as a floor of very good system QB (remember those?!) but with a higher ceiling because of how he performed in the really big moments at Michigan.  Just saying. My only question about him was the deep out and he improved his throwing base in the early stage of his career (wasn't as concerned about the deep ball he didn't seem to have an issue with that.)

 

Any of you sons of guns going to pay for my newsletter?

 

It's titled "Deez."

[The Consigliere]

6 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

I've only paid attentoon to Waldman's QB takes. Him, Louis Riddick and Chris Simms have an interesting perspective and IMO have a good eye. They miss sometimes but they're not afraid to go against the consensus and take big swings based on what they see in the tape.

Waldman absolutely has no herd instincts whatsoever. He does his own thing entirely. Good podcast guy, and does nice short form and long form video's too (I'm assuming you know his youtube stuff). His RSP is nicely put together for a one man show operation (at least in the past, I assume it still is). Great dude. Its just over time I came to realize that he's just as prone to errors as anyone. For a long time I felt he was on the highest end of tape grinders, but he had too many rough classes in a row for me to keep going to the well. That being said, sounds like he's been on QB lately. I paid more attention to his RB/WR/TE takes. 

[MrJL]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

 

 

 

We don't have much in terms of playmakers:

Aging McLaurin

Dotson falling off

Aging Logan thomas and crap TE room beyond him.

JAG athlete but efficient runner Brian Robinson at RB

 

 

McLaurin is not aging, Dotson had a bad second year but why exactly would he stand out when we consider the entire O to suck