The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Thinking Skins]

Some of the advanced stats on Sam Howell's performance yesterday. Here's where he ranked among 30 QBs who started (@NextGenStats).

Time to Throw: 20th
Int Air Yds: 10th
Comp Air Yds: 5th
Yds to Sticks: 19th
Cmp Over Exp: 14th
Aggressive %: 10th

Mixed bag. A lot to improve on.

— Grant Paulsen (@granthpaulsen) September 11, 2023
 

[goskins10]

16 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

For me, as i like to say about Ron, he's not really future oriented or that win now oriented either.  He plays it in the middle mostly.  Trading Brissett would be a future oriented move and from my observation that's not a card he plays much.  But conversely, he's also not a mortgage the future for the present guy either.  

 

So you are unlikely going to see him make a cap move that would help the present but hurt the future or for that matter make a future move that arguably would help the team long term but would mortgage the present.  Comes off like he doesn't like his food spicy or mild.  He seems to like it medium.

 

I don't blame Ron at all for not expecting him to trade Brissett if an offer came.  I don't think ANY HC running the FO would trade him in the same situation.  That's the problem IMO for having a HC, ANY HC running the FO. 

 

Ultimatly I agree with this. He has never been that aggressive and been willing to build slow. Probably too slow in this climate. I think that's what people are most frustrated with. A few more aggressive moves could have made this a more competitive team right now. And making a few well placed needs based draft picks vs BPA would have been helpful (thinking OT instead of Forbes or Quan for example). 

 

16 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Agree about game 1.  I am not living or dying with any game 1. 

 

Just to continue on this, I know it's hard but we (meaning the fan collective not you and I alone 🙂)  really need to have just a little patience with the new OC/QB offense. It was a bit conservative Sunday but there was a combination of new OC, new DC, and other new parts, what the D was giving them, and yes the weather I think slowed them down midway and they never turned it back on. That and Logan's drops. Unlike others I did not notice a change after he got that illegal hit. But maybe I just wasn't tuned in enough. 

 

Denver is a very good D. It's likely we get better but have similar or worse results. I would like to see more screens and rollouts to slow that rush down. Otherwise they will just keep coming. Hope we have a good game. RW has had his way with us most of the time so it wil be interesting to see how our D does with him. I expect that despite a rough start the Sean Peyton/Russell WIlson combination will be a good one. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

23 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

Ultimatly I agree with this. He has never been that aggressive and been willing to build slow. Probably too slow in this climate. I think that's what people are most frustrated with. A few more aggressive moves could have made this a more competitive team right now. And making a few well placed needs based draft picks vs BPA would have been helpful (thinking OT instead of Forbes or Quan for example). 

 

He's alluded to being aggressive and going all-in when you know you have the QB. If Howell is that guy (playoffs) then I guess we'll find out how serious that thought is.

 

23 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

Just to continue on this, I know it's hard but we (meaning the fan collective not you and I alone 🙂)  really need to have just a little patience with the new OC/QB offense. It was a bit conservative Sunday but there was a combination of new OC, new DC, and other new parts, what the D was giving them, and yes the weather I think slowed them down midway and they never turned it back on. That and Logan's drops. Unlike others I did not notice a change after he got that illegal hit. But maybe I just wasn't tuned in enough. 

 

Yup, it really helps that a win affords us a bigger window for patience. A win again this Sunday and we could then stomach some losses as Howell figures things out.

 

23 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

Denver is a very good D. It's likely we get better but have similar or worse results. I would like to see more screens and rollouts to slow that rush down. Otherwise they will just keep coming. Hope we have a good game. RW has had his way with us most of the time so it wil be interesting to see how our D does with him. I expect that despite a rough start the Sean Peyton/Russell WIlson combination will be a good one. 

 

Are they? They have a bunch of older vets as pass rushers that didn't do anything week 1. I know they have 1 elite corner, but I honestly don't know what else they have.

[method man]

13 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

He's alluded to being aggressive and going all-in when you know you have the QB. If Howell is that guy (playoffs) then I guess we'll find out how serious that thought is.

 

 

Yup, it really helps that a win affords us a bigger window for patience. A win again this Sunday and we could then stomach some losses as Howell figures things out.

 

 

Are they? They have a bunch of older vets as pass rushers that didn't do anything week 1. I know they have 1 elite corner, but I honestly don't know what else they have.

I agree. The Russ contract is starting to hurt them. The only stars on their D are Surtain and Simmons. The front 7 is JAG heavy with their best player in that group being Zach Allen

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

 

Ultimatly I agree with this. He has never been that aggressive and been willing to build slow. Probably too slow in this climate. I think that's what people are most frustrated with. A few more aggressive moves could have made this a more competitive team right now. And making a few well placed needs based draft picks vs BPA would have been helpful (thinking OT instead of Forbes or Quan for example). 

 

 

He has a young QB whose weakness is at times holding on to the ball too long and taking sacks.  Yet, he has sort of a half speed approach IMO to improving the O line.  IMO that's so telling for me.  This is coming from someone who defended him over and over again for his slow build approach.

 

It's not that I think Ron is dumb or sucks.  I think he's actually above average at his job.  But I don't see anything special about Ron as a FO guy and a coach.

 

And his approach to the off season strikes me as similar to the Bruce approach but just a more competent version of it.  Larry Michael once explained the Bruce philosophy perfectly which is the thought process is so many teams are in the middle.  Keep that team roster wise in that range.  In other words, no point for a rebuild.  Then with some lucky bounces, injury luck, you can be in the playoffs.  He associated the Eagles SB win to that.  And the Giants SB years back.   I gather that's the thought driven when lacking an elite QB.

 

There was someone who covered the team who said somewhat the same thing recently about Ron.  Not that Ron has defined his philosophy but that is how it comes off to me and some others.  Ron keeps sort of a middle of the road floor to the team and the hope is with some good luck you can sneak into the playoffs.

 

I get it.  But I am dreaming bigger than that now.  That approach works fine with me with Dan at the helm because Dan puts a ceiling.  But there is no ceiling now.

 

1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

 

Just to continue on this, I know it's hard but we (meaning the fan collective not you and I alone 🙂)  really need to have just a little patience with the new OC/QB offense. It was a bit conservative Sunday but there was a combination of new OC, new DC, and other new parts, what the D was giving them, and yes the weather I think slowed them down midway and they never turned it back on. That and Logan's drops. Unlike others I did not notice a change after he got that illegal hit. But maybe I just wasn't tuned in enough. 

 

Denver is a very good D. It's likely we get better but have similar or worse results. I would like to see more screens and rollouts to slow that rush down. Otherwise they will just keep coming. Hope we have a good game. RW has had his way with us most of the time so it wil be interesting to see how our D does with him. I expect that despite a rough start the Sean Peyton/Russell WIlson combination will be a good one. 

 

Denver has a good secondary, not so much pass rush.  This game I banked on a win at the start of the season.  Don't get me wrong, I think the game will be a grind but IMO if they are going to have a winning season, they need to win a game like this.

 

If I recall Logan said this coming game, Atlanta, the Bears are swing type of games.  He didn't say this part but I took his point that he felt they needed to win games like that to have a good season.

 

But I agree in general that the offense is a work in porgress.  And especially give Howell some time to grow.

Edited September 14, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[philibusters]

1 hour ago, method man said:

I agree. The Russ contract is starting to hurt them. The only stars on their D are Surtain and Simmons. The front 7 is JAG heavy with their best player in that group being Zach Allen

 

I like their LB'ers.  Josey Jewell is an all around LB and Singleton is really solid against the run.  I am not impressed by their D-Line though.

[Voice_of_Reason]

I was getting caught up on this thread.  Did we really spend the better part of 2 pages arguing about what Jay Gruden said about which QB?

 

[Conn]

3 hours ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

He's alluded to being aggressive and going all-in when you know you have the QB. If Howell is that guy (playoffs) then I guess we'll find out how serious that thought is.

This is what makes the idea that he had strong conviction about Howell laughable. If he did, this was the offseason to save his job. He kept it middle of the road (which our future FO will appreciate) but it’s probably too late for him even if he got lucky and hit on Howell. The next group will benefit from that. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 minute ago, Conn said:

This is what makes the idea that he had strong conviction about Howell laughable. If he did, this was the offseason to save his job. He kept it middle of the road (which our future FO will appreciate) but it’s probably too late for him even if he got lucky and hit on Howell. The next group will benefit from that. 

 

We should all be very thankful Rivera did not sell out to save his job this season. If he does save his job then he's still on the hotseat in 2024.

 

The same thing happened when Harris bought the 76ers, they made the playoffs and then Harris encouraged them to use their cap room to go all-in and get the team to the next level. It didn't work, but if we make the playoffs and Howell looks like he's developing well then I am betting Harris tells Rivera to push the chips in and will expect results. If that then fails, Harris definitely has no qualms tearing everything down, firing people, and rebuilding.

 

Rivera is on the hotseat for both 2023 and 2024. Even if he saves his job this season, he'll be expected to spend like crazy and prove he can take the team even further with more resources. Otherwise it's goodbye.

[Koolblue13]

43 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I was getting caught up on this thread.  Did we really spend the better part of 2 pages arguing about what Jay Gruden said about which QB?

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

10 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I'm not sure what you're trying to imply with this gif....

[Koolblue13]

2 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I'm not sure what you're trying to imply with this gif....

There's been a running joke about a Bezos and Musk cage match coming up, so I just compared you two, to them because y'all have been wall of texting each other for days. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

19 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

There's been a running joke about a Bezos and Musk cage match coming up, so I just compared you two, to them because y'all have been wall of texting each other for days. 

Me and who?

[Koolblue13]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Me and who?

Sip.

 

Have you not noticed this?

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I was getting caught up on this thread.  Did we really spend the better part of 2 pages arguing about what Jay Gruden said about which QB?

 

 

I appreciate you taking the time to read it all.  

 

I know you above all is dying to know exactly what Jay is thinking.

 

1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

Sip.

 

Have you not noticed this?

 

It's settled.  I won. 

Edited September 14, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[wit33]

1 hour ago, Conn said:

This is what makes the idea that he had strong conviction about Howell laughable. If he did, this was the offseason to save his job. He kept it middle of the road (which our future FO will appreciate) but it’s probably too late for him even if he got lucky and hit on Howell. The next group will benefit from that. 

What’s the definition of “all in”? 
 

The “he hasn’t gone all in” is a surface level way to describe his middling success as a Washington Coach/GM. 

 

 

[Conn]

39 minutes ago, wit33 said:

What’s the definition of “all in”? 
 

The “he hasn’t gone all in” is a surface level way to describe his middling success as a Washington Coach/GM. 

 

 

 

I don’t know, I didn’t use the phrase “all-in”, somebody else did. Looking at how much cap space we’re using isn’t the identifier you think it is (for me). Every team has to use most of their space to reliably hit the rolling cap floor. For me, it’s how you use the cap space—and using it to sign Bruce Allen-level mediocre at best FA’s fills the space, but not necessarily in the best way. I’m not here to re-litigate the whole offseason FA/draft process over and over again though, I think many of us on the board have gone back and forth on it a lot. I’m mostly responding because you have multiple times in the past few months posted our limited remaining cap room as some sort of evidence against the idea that Rivera didn’t do enough. As if people are accusing him of just sitting on cap space or something. I think it’s the method of the thing rather than simply the thing itself. 

[wit33]

3 hours ago, Conn said:

 

I don’t know, I didn’t use the phrase “all-in”, somebody else did. Looking at how much cap space we’re using isn’t the identifier you think it is (for me). Every team has to use most of their space to reliably hit the rolling cap floor. For me, it’s how you use the cap space—and using it to sign Bruce Allen-level mediocre at best FA’s fills the space, but not necessarily in the best way. I’m not here to re-litigate the whole offseason FA/draft process over and over again though, I think many of us on the board have gone back and forth on it a lot. I’m mostly responding because you have multiple times in the past few months posted our limited remaining cap room as some sort of evidence against the idea that Rivera didn’t do enough. As if people are accusing him of just sitting on cap space or something. I think it’s the method of the thing rather than simply the thing itself. 

**Disclaimer, not at all worked up about this just some middle of the Week discussion. Go Washington! 

 

Not necessarily implying Washington being atop the list of spending from a cap standpoint is the end all be all, but it’s real data. The “all in” seems drenched with subjectivity. 
 

No issues if people disagree wrong players were acquired or money should’ve been spent elsewhere, it’s the conclusion Rivera is wrong and hasn’t gone “all in” that annoys me. 
 

I imagine if you ask Rivera he’d share he’s all in with the core players on roster and trusts them to make the next leap. Washington’s top 10 ten players on roster account for more than 50% of this years cap.
 

He’s all in with these guys:

 

 

 

 

[MartinC]

Nice (and broadly positive) breakdown of Sam versus AZ.

 

[tmandoug1]

4 minutes ago, MartinC said:

Nice (and broadly positive) breakdown of Sam versus AZ.

 

Dude was wide open on the second play in the video.......wow.

[MartinC]

Second breakdown of the AZ game - also positive. Sam played better than we gave him credit for live. And, no it wasn’t his best game - there is more to come!

 

[Warhead36]

best game...lol dude has played two games come on man

[Berggy9598]

2 hours ago, tmandoug1 said:

Dude was wide open on the second play in the video.......wow.

Nit picky. I don’t know that he could have turned his and stepped up enough to throw that deep rail without getting absolutely destroyed as he released the ball. Free safety might got under the ball in this case. Split second decision. 

[FuriousD]

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

Second breakdown of the AZ game - also positive. Sam played better than we gave him credit for live. And, no it wasn’t his best game - there is more to come!

 

@2.20mins..

”What’s going on here defensively? I don’t know”…

Doesn’t exactly inspire confidence in the abilities as a wannabe authority but I went on to the end and enjoy making my own conclusions. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Washington wanted Russell Wilson. Sam Howell wanted to play like him.

 

By Sam Fortier

September 14, 2023 at 11:30 a.m. EDT

 

In early 2022, the Washington Commanders were once again looking for a quarterback, and a top name on the market was Russell Wilson. The relationship between the Seattle Seahawks and their franchise player had deteriorated — Wilson had asked ownership to fire Coach Pete Carroll and general manager John Schneider, according to The Athletic — and Washington wanted to push to acquire the nine-time Pro Bowler.

 

 

Washington was willing to offer a lucrative package that included three first-round picks, according to a person with knowledge of the situation, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive deliberations. But the person got the impression Seattle didn’t want to trade Wilson within the NFC.

 

...Wilson had a no-trade clause, and according to several people, including Jake Heaps, Wilson’s private quarterbacks’ coach, the quarterback wouldn’t waive it to go to Washington or Philadelphia; the Eagles were also interested in the veteran.

 

“The only place he gave permission for us to negotiate with in earnest was Denver,” the Seahawks executive said.

In March 2022, Seattle traded Wilson and a fourth-round draft choice to Denver for a major haul of five picks — two first-rounders, two seconds and a fifth — as well as three players. Denver gave Wilson a huge contract extension to tie him to the team for a total of seven years and $296 million. The first season was a disaster: Wilson looked older and slower, new ownership fired its rookie coach, and the team finished 5-12. This offseason, Denver hired veteran Coach Sean Payton to help fix Wilson, and on Sunday at Mile High, Washington (1-0) will try to prevent the duo (0-1) from getting its first win together.

 

Eighteen months after Washington failed to trade for him, Wilson’s shadow still looms large over the Commanders. The team remains in quarterback purgatory, and it used one of the picks it would’ve given up for Wilson to instead draft a player who wants to emulate him. Growing up, Sam Howell’s favorite quarterback was Drew Brees, but he loved watching Wilson because they were so similar — shorter, mobile playmakers with big arms who excelled at throwing the deep ball.

 

“We both can get out of the pocket and extend plays and make things happen,” Howell said. “[Wilson’s] been such a good player throughout his career. I know he struggled last year, but I expect him to get right back on track this year.”

Now, Howell hopes to reach the same heights as Wilson, who was also a good baseball player, chose football, tore up the ACC at a college in North Carolina, fell in the NFL draft and stepped in as a raw, promising starter to complement a strong defense.

 

Washington, after missing on Wilson, traded Indianapolis two mid-round picks and swapped 2022 second-rounders to try to fix Carson Wentz. The Commanders kept the first-rounders Wilson would’ve cost, which turned out to be key. The team used two of those picks (and others added by trading down) to draft key contributors who might not otherwise be here: receiver Jahan Dotson, running back Brian Robinson Jr., tight end Cole Turner, cornerback Emmanuel Forbes and Howell.

 

One senior NFC personnel executive, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss other teams, said Washington ended up in a better situation than Denver. Howell’s contract makes it easier to build around him than Wilson. And though Howell is 22 and unproven, he also has more upside than Wilson, who is 34 and has an athletic skill set that doesn’t tend to age well.

“It’s pretty easy to say Russell Wilson is no longer an arrow-up player,” the executive said. “It’s debatable to say is he even an arrow-across?”

 

...Before the draft, most analysts compared Howell to Baker Mayfield and a lesser or developmental Wilson. (Pro Football Focus called Howell a “slower Russell Wilson.”) After Washington drafted Howell 144th, the things Coach Ron Rivera and General Manager Martin Mayhew said they liked about him echoed Wilson’s skill set.

 

This summer, ESPN analyst Mina Kimes said Howell’s running ability and build, at 6-foot-1 and 220 pounds, “almost reminds of a young Russell Wilson.”

 

...Middle linebacker Cody Barton, whom Seattle drafted in 2019, spent three years with Wilson. He said he sees physical similarities between the two quarterbacks, and when he signed with Washington this offseason, he noticed “the way [Howell] moves as a player” was familiar. Specifically, Howell’s mannerisms on play-action fakes from shotgun reminded him of Wilson.

 

But for Barton, the strongest parallels weren’t on the field. In Seattle, the linebacker sat next to Wilson in the meeting room, and in Washington, he sits two seats away from Howell. Both quarterbacks, he said, always seem to be studying from big binders.

“[It’s] the dedication to their craft and their work, and the focus and the competitiveness,” he said. “Sam — I wouldn't say he's the most talkative guy if he doesn't really know you. But once you talk to him, you can see he's very competitive and very focused. That's a similarity I can see in those two.”

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2023/09/14/russell-wilson-sam-howell/?utm_campaign=wp_sports&utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social

Edited September 15, 2023 by Skinsinparadise