The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

35 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

He wasn't. But scouts are scouts and they will nitpick anything. Just to say they were right. Now Howell is younger had more years with good numbers, and now had a chip on his shoulders. 

 

I love using starts as a qualifier so I like Pickett but he wasn't my first. 

 

With QB the safe bet is that the young QB isn't going to work out because of course so many of them don't.   It's a joke with scouts-personnel guys that if there was some magic formula at diciphering QB whatever dude discovered they would be a billionaire.  It's by most counts the hardest position to scout in sports.  I haven't noticed any personnel guys saying on or off the record they have it down.  So the easier approach is to knock the prospects.

 

So many moving parts with the position.  But the kicker as Arians likes to say is the hardest thing for any Qb to see the field and process lightening quick.  Any QB according to him can process if you give them time but in the NFL you have to see it all in 3 seconds or less, etc.  See the defense, adjust the protection, see your receivers -- all while ensuring your mechanics are sound and your drops match the play call.  So much happens fast.  The great ones can do it.  Many can't.  But according to Arians, you can't really see if these guys can do it in the pros until they are in your building and doing it.   

 

The wild thing about young QBs is that things can change so fast.  I recall reading months ago that Zappe might replace Matt Jones as the starter in NE.  Now they dump Zappe onto the practice squad and sign Corral soon after.  It's wild that NE has three young QBs now with major college pedigree.  And there is a chance none of the three work out.

 

It's not that I am obsessed with the Wonderlic score.  But when you combine it for example with Corral playing a fairly simple college offense, and then having that fight among other red flags in his background and some saying his interviews were "meh".  I think that stuff could matter in combination.   As all of that unfolded, I didn't bail on Corral completely but if I recall he was out of my first round in my top 100.   Carson Strong probably had the worst draft process.  Sort of bombed the Senior Bowl.  Then the reports that he was uber weird in his interviews.  And he already had that bionic leg as an issue.

 

I looked up the Wonderlic scores of all the QBs.  Wild that Pickett's was low too.  I forgot about that.  But for Pickett he played in a pro style offense at least.   I had Pickett ranked 4th in this class.  So I was lower on him than some mock drafters.   But I said a zillion times on that draft thread he was my favorite squarely on the variable of intangibles.  So I'll say if he ends up the best in this class, I'll give even more stock to intangibles.

 

Also these guys IMO were so hard to seperate.  It wasn't hard to see them succeed or fail based on various narratives -- worst case-best case scenarios.  All that was said at the time, too.  This isn't 20-20 hindsight.

 

I liked Howell's intangibles, too.  Except he's quiet-introverted by nature -- versus Pickett being outgoing-extroverted.  But both are tough dudes.  I reread my posts about the matchup of Pickett-Howell in the last year in college extolling Howell's toughness in particular. But Pickett is a tough dude, too.

 

But going back to Arians, he said the fast processing is everything.  If so, will see soon enough about both those dudes.

 

 

 

 

Edited September 3, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[zCommander]

On 9/2/2023 at 10:56 AM, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Pickett has some big time hype from the Pitt reporters even before camp and he apparently had a really good camp. 

 

I liked Howell over him before the draft.  but I didn't dislike Pickett -- he was the Qb in that draft class that seemed to be billed the most in that group for intangibles-leadership.

 

Howell IMO has high intangibles but he's more of a quiet-introvert by reputation.  Pickett is an extrovert-outgoing leader type.  Both work really hard.

 

I get the vibe that both are going to be successful.

 

I liked Howell and what he did on pro-day. I am just glad that Tomlin decided to skip his pro-day at UNC or else he could have had a tough decision to make on draft day. But more likely Tomlin was already set on Pickett. I wasn't big on Pickett and sure the smallish hands was talked about a lot as well but it ended up as a non-issue anyway. 

[88Comrade2000]

You keep looking for a qb until you find the right one.

 

Take Arizona. They spent a top 10 pick on some guy. Then the next year draft Murray. They stupidly gave him that big contract because now it looks like they are tanking to get a top pick to draft another qb.

 

They will either attempt to trade Murray in the offseason or take the deep cap hit after June 1 and cut. Murray may not play at all, even if healthy later this year. Arizona likely will trade down Houston’s pick to get more assets.  Doubtful they even participate in free agency. So, they will start anew in 24 with a new qb.

 

 

 

If Sam shows enough this year to continue being the starter, great. If not, we will try again until we hit.  

[Skinsinparadise]

Lombardi, who was an NFL scout, player personnel director and general manager, offered sharp criticisms of Rivera when he was a guest on the “Grant and Danny Show” on Thursday.

 

Lombardi expressed that the Commanders really struggled in the 2022 season primarily because of the struggles of their quarterbacks Carson Wentz and then Taylor Heinicke.

As a result, Lombardi does not understand/agree with the Commanders over/ under on 2023 wins, only being at 6.5. He was adamant he believes Sam Howell will be a better quarterback than what they had in 2022.

“How much worse could Howell be than those two guys? He can’t be any worse.”

 

Lombardi pointed to three items that he thinks reflect poorly on Rivera. Not knowing they could be eliminated from the playoffs following the loss to the Browns, his statements regarding Eric Bieniemy during training camp and now admitting he didn’t realize in 2022 what Sam Howell could do.

“What it does is it shows he was seeing practice but was not observing practice. People that are only seeing don’t get anywhere.”

 

Lombardi pointed out that Rivera has all the authority, and can make any move he wants to make.

Lombardi feels this reveals there is not enough observation and interaction with Rivera’s assistants regarding the player personnel.

Rivera even became the butt of Lombardi’s jokes as Lombardi compared Rivera to Jedd Clampett of the old Beverly Hillbillies, luckily striking oil.

 

“The quarterback of the Washington Commanders was costing them games. That’s pretty clear. Lombardi pointed in particular to the 2022 loss to the Titans “because the quarterback couldn’t make a play.”

He was emphatic that Wentz was killing the Commanders in games last year. He also pointed to Heinicke struggling and that Rivera should have noticed what Howell was doing on the scout team last season.

“New Commanders owner Josh Harris should be concerned now,” expressed Lombardi. He asked, “Did the 2022 coaching staff have a meeting after the first quarter of the season to discuss everyone on the roster?”

 

Were the Commanders making notes of the players on the scout teams, observing their progression and or regression? “But if you are not paying attention to it, if you are not aware of it. You’re the general manager of the team. That is not a good look for you,” declared Lombardi referring to Rivera.

There was more, but the overall tone was that Lombardi feels Rivera has revealed he is not working hard enough and not communicating enough with his staff concerning their roster and player personnel.

Lombardi was quick to qualify his comments, stating Rivera is a good man; he was not attacking Rivera as a person. He did reassert he is questioning Rivera as a businessman.

 

https://commanderswire.usatoday.com/2023/09/03/former-nfl-exec-michael-lombardi-blasts-washington-commanders-ron-rivera/?taid=64f501e90336bb0001a7387b&utm_campaign=trueanthem&utm_medium=trueanthem&utm_source=twitter

[Skinsinparadise]

16 hours ago, zCommander said:

 

I liked Howell and what he did on pro-day. I am just glad that Tomlin decided to skip his pro-day at UNC or else he could have had a tough decision to make on draft day. But more likely Tomlin was already set on Pickett. I wasn't big on Pickett and sure the smallish hands was talked about a lot as well but it ended up as a non-issue anyway. 

 

I hear you on that, For me all of those QBs in that draft were so hard to evaluate.  The top 5 were close to me and they all had attributes I liked and weaknesses that made me pause. 

 

For Howell specifically rereading some of my posts what I liked the best about him in that group was his toughness and he made the most as I called it on that thread wicked throws.  I also liked his arm strength and deep ball, put nice air under it, reminded me of Kirk on that front.   My concerns were does his running translate?  He had a bull dozer style of running that I wasn't sure if it would translate.  And his pocket presence as to taking sacks.

 

For Pickett my issue was his arm talent.   Very average arm.  The small hand size also correlated with fumbles.  He had some speed but not lightening fast and he was a late bloomer.  What I liked is he was so good throwing on the move, roll the pocket, boot and the dude can throw.  His accuracy was good.  Also, reputation wise he had that sort of Peyton Manning rally around persona that the other QBs in this class didn't match.  He sort of had that perfect QB persona.

 

For me I think i have an easier time picking QBs who can't play versus who can play.   I am not bad for a lay person picking QB who can play.  Am hit and miss like anyone else.  But I have some hits among the misses.  lol, I think if I have a strength its seeing QBs who can't play.    Among others, I was majorly opposed to them drafting Haskins.  Also majorly opposed to them trading for Darnold or Rosen after watching a bunch of their games.  

 

Overall, though we should always give each other a break on QB evaluations. Because no one in the NFL has cracked the code on QB evaluations.  And lol, if anyone of us here cracked the code, we'd be wasting our time discussing that here, we should be working in the NFL making billions. 

 

I only give @Thinking Skins a hard time every now and then on the topic  is because he tends to really dig low round undrafted FA QB types who have glimpses and then struggle.  I mean my argument back to him in good spirits, but I don't get the love after they struggle if they aren't high pedigreed-talented QBs.    Look whether its Heinicke, or Mullens or Keenum or Colt some of these guys can have a nice short run.  But as Arians says in his book eventually a defensive coordinator figures out their weaknesses and the QB has to counter punch.  Also the law of averages is rarely a straight line -- its often good and bad mixed in when it comes to a bad performer.  Bad Qbs will have more bad games but have some good mixed in.  It's just how it is.

 

We can toast Heinicke for a few games.  Just like the Jets for a short stint think they have the guy in Mike White.  So many other cases like that in history.  Matt Flynn.  Sean Mitchell. Heck all our bust QBs had a smalll nice run maybe aside from Beck.    But most of these lower picked QBs or UDFAs were low picks for a reason.  Not saying they don't deserve a chance.  But I don't give a rats behind if they had a few nice apples in a rotten barrel.  Almost all these guys have that.  

 

For me Howell is different even though he was a mid rounder.  He was a pedigreed dude in college with a strong arm and tools.  someone like him deserves patience.  It was a fluke that he dropped that low. 

Edited September 4, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[skinsfan66]

Howell beating out Brissett was important. As stated above you can toast a backup for a couple games but they are what they are, backups. The team getting away from signing everybody's garbage is a move in the right direction too. Having Howell on a rookie contract and not upgrading the protection for him sucks. I thought they would take care of that with the past history of QB's getting broken up here. Drafting 2 DB's first is a not what me or some here expected.  It should cost Ron his job if Sam goes down with an injury related to OL.  I cannot not remember a QB that came here and did not have their worst season behind our lines.  I guess Ron and everybody here that had DB as top need, got their wish in the draft. Hope they are right.  

Edited September 4, 2023 by skinsfan66

[GoSkins1976]

I believe that Howell will be asked to hand off more than he will be asked to throw it so his yardage will probably end up being modest most likely. Assuming we do not fall behind multiple scores early on. I'm really interested in monitoring his rush yards, Ron once almost got Cam killed in Carolina with poor OLine and frequent rushing attempts.

[Koolblue13]

43 minutes ago, GoSkins1976 said:

I believe that Howell will be asked to hand off more than he will be asked to throw it so his yardage will probably end up being modest most likely. Assuming we do not fall behind multiple scores early on. I'm really interested in monitoring his rush yards, Ron once almost got Cam killed in Carolina with poor OLine and frequent rushing attempts.

I doubt that. The RBs will be doing a ton of blocking and pass catching. 

[Going Commando]

Corral and Willis got screwed by the situations they were drafted into.  If you don't receive commitment from your draft team, there is no way things will work out for you there.  It could have gone the same way for Ridder and Howell, but they ended up getting a surprising level of commitment from their draft team.  Even more so for Brock Purdy, they cut bait on a mammoth investment in another QB just to clear the deck for him.  Stuff like that is what a QB prospect needs to succeed.

 

One thing I hope people who really dug in and made takes about the 22 draft class recognize from that experience is that these top QB prospects are not nearly as different from each other as hindsight makes it seem.  The absolutely critical factor in determining career outcomes is whether or not they get lucky in their draft destination.  That situation is paramount, and they have no control over it.  If they get drafted into a quicksand situation, it doesn't matter how smart or hard working they are.  They will be screwed, and very few QB prospects ever get a good second chance to succeed somewhere else.  This is the fundamental reason why it didn't matter which QB prospects we drafted for the last 30 years, they were all bound for failure.  Franchise QBs have to be made as much as they are found, and we were not capable of providing the situation and conditions to make them.

[Skinsinparadise]

26 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

Corral and Willis got screwed by the situations they were drafted into.  If you don't receive commitment from your draft team, there is no way things will work out for you there.  It could have gone the same way for Ridder and Howell, but they ended up getting a surprising level of commitment from their draft team.  Even more so for Brock Purdy, they cut bait on a mammoth investment in another QB just to clear the deck for him.  Stuff like that is what a QB prospect needs to succeed.

 

One thing I hope people who really dug in and made takes about the 22 draft class recognize from that experience is that these top QB prospects are not nearly as different from each other as hindsight makes it seem.  The absolutely critical factor in determining career outcomes is whether or not they get lucky in their draft destination.  That situation is paramount, and they have no control over it.  If they get drafted into a quicksand situation, it doesn't matter how smart or hard working they are.  They will be screwed, and very few QB prospects ever get a good second chance to succeed somewhere else.  This is the fundamental reason why it didn't matter which QB prospects we drafted for the last 30 years, they were all bound for failure.  Franchise QBs have to be made as much as they are found, and we were not capable of providing the situation and conditions to make them.

 

I mostly agree with.  Just a small part I disagree about.

 

I do think hardworking QBs who are good will likely ultimately have their day even if its elsewhere.  But I do agree that even the hardworking ones have a strike against them when they are discarded by their previous team, so its a harder climb because the next team's patience isn't high.

 

Corral's season 1 was derailed because of injury.  And he already had a learning curve to adjust from Mississippi's simplistic college offense to the pros.  Willis we all pretty much said he was a high variance QB -- boom-bust.  Supposedly he had a rough camp last year but a better camp this year. 

 

But to your point about bad luck, both of those teams didn't have the paitence to wait.  Both drafting QBs early this year.

 

I don't thihk this team drafted franchise QBs but just screwed it up maybe with the exception of RG3 but RG3 had a major hand in his own demise which he somewhat relucabtly accedes to now with comments like "they should have saved me from myself". But in 2012 he was the real deal.

 

Kirk was the goods.  He played well here.  I don't think Ramsey, Haskins, Campbell had it in them regardless of how the franchise groomed them. 

 

I think a large part of it is not all these QBs can process the field quickly, NFL level, setting protections, etc.  As Arians expressed all these QBs can do it if you give them enough time, but only a select number of these guys "have it" on that front where they can do it at NFL speed and have the vision to see the field and all its moving parts at hyper speed. So someone like Trey Lance and Brock Purdy -- same system, same coaches.  One looks successful.  The other one not so much. 

Edited September 4, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Thinking Skins]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I mostly agree with.  Just a small part I disagree about.

 

I do think hardworking QBs who are good will likely ultimately have their day even if its elsewhere.  But I do agree that even the hardworking ones have a strike against them when they are discarded by their previous team, so its a harder climb because the next team's patience isn't high.

 

Corral's season 1 was derailed because of injury.  And he already had a learning curve to adjust from Mississippi's simplistic college offense to the pros.  Willis we all pretty much said he was a high variance QB -- boom-bust.  Supposedly he had a rough camp last year but a better camp this year. 

 

But to your point about bad luck, both of those teams didn't have the paitence to wait.  Both drafting QBs early this year.

 

I don't thihk this team drafted franchise QBs but just screwed it up maybe with the exception of RG3 but RG3 had a major hand in his own demise which he somewhat relucabtly accedes to now with comments like "they should have saved me from myself". But in 2012 he was the real deal.

 

Kirk was the goods.  He played well here.  I don't think Ramsey, Haskins, Campbell had it in them regardless of how the franchise groomed them. 

 

I think a large part of it is not all these QBs can process the field quickly, NFL level, setting protections, etc.  As Arians expressed all these QBs can do it if you give them enough time, but only a select number of these guys "have it" on that front where they can do it at NFL speed and have the vision to see the field and all its moving parts at hyper speed. So someone like Trey Lance and Brock Purdy -- same system, same coaches.  One looks successful.  The other one not so much. 

This is mainly true but the things we couldn't determine from the tape and scores was stuff like work ethic and leadership. We're seeing Howell have that in droves right now, same for Pickett and maybe Willis compared to his rookie year. 

 

That's the thing that got Zach Wilson in trouble and Ryan Leaf and a bunch of other QBs RG3 for example. Hard to tell who's mature and who's not because we don't know how to define it until we really need it. Howell didn't need maturity last year that much because he was in the shadows but this year he's taking the forefront and we see it. Other QBs have time to develop and grow into the maturity. 

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

This is mainly true but the things we couldn't determine from the tape and scores was stuff like work ethic and leadership. We're seeing Howell have that in droves right now, same for Pickett and maybe Willis compared to his rookie year. 

 

 

I've written a ton over the years about the value of work ethic-intangibles of these QBs.  But even with that, they still need to have that ability to process things and see the field at hyper kinetic speed.  According to Arians that's difficult to teach.  

 

If you follow the draft close enough, often that stuff gets spilled into the narratives.  For example the red flags about Haskins and Rosen on that front were telegraphed some during the draft process.  Howell was billed highly on that front during the draft process -- ditto Pickett.  

 

 

Edited September 4, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[HigSkin]

This is funny

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

43 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

This is funny

 

 

 

 

Heck I had Clayton Tune on my 20 players list of my guys, one of my fav players in the draft.  He was a fun watch because he's such a tough SOB and his mobility and athleticism is sneaky really good.

 

But game 1 against this defense will be silly hard for him IMO.  I saw him more as a high end backup than a starter. 

 

Josh Dobbs sucks.  He sucked against us in the off season.

 

the fact that they think that its going to throw this defense off is as silly as his what ride did you use to get here, the bus or car "motivational" speech.

Edited September 4, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Voice_of_Reason]

13 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

For Pickett my issue was his arm talent.   Very average arm.

How would his arm compare to Kirk's?  I always thought Kirk had an "ok" NFL arm.  (Compared to [REDACTED], who had a Junior High School arm.)

 

Honest question: I don't watch college football, and don't watch film to study for the draft.  It's not my bag.  So, I think I've seen Picket throw ... 8 passes ever? That's probably an exaggeration, but I haven't been seeking out film to watch him. 

 

If his arm is "Kirk-ish" I think he can do fine.  If it's less than "Kirk-ish" then I think he's going to struggle with certain types of throws, and defenses can make you pay for that.  

 

The small hands thing didn't bother me as much because I don't recall him having a fumbling problem, and he played at Pitt.  I think if he was going to have a huge fumbling problem, it would have already turned up.  I could be wrong, maybe he did have a problem, I just don't recall.  I also remember hearing that he's actually double jointed, so I think measurements might not be all that relevant.  But I don't know. I get "squishy" talking about a grown man's hand size.  

8 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I've written a ton over the years about the value of work ethic-intangibles of these QBs.  But even with that, they still need to have that ability to process things and see the field at hyper kinetic speed.  According to Arians that's difficult to teach. 

To add to the point, I remember Walsh and Parcells both saying this at different times. 

 

Cooley, who's nowhere near at the level of those guys, was asked by Sheehan if QB was simplely "read, react, throw."  And Cooley said it was "Read, React/Throw" because the two things had to be done so quickly together.  This was ages ago either on the podcast or maybe even the radio show they did together. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

As an ironic coincidence given the arm strength discussion above, John Elway was CBS Sports features athlete for “7 days until football” which came out Thursday but popped into my feed today.

 

My God. His throws left vapor trails.  
 

If he played in todays NFL he’d throw for 20k yards a season.  He was that good.  And if not the best arm in NFL history, then no worse than 3rd or 4th.  Marino, Favre and Rodgers are the others I’d put in that class.  
 

He was my favorite non-Redskin player growing up.  He could do things with the ball nobody else could do.  Except Marino,  But Elway had movement Marino only dreamed of.  

Edited September 5, 2023 by Voice_of_Reason

[kingdaddy]

On 9/3/2023 at 7:48 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

Lombardi pointed to three items that he thinks reflect poorly on Rivera. Not knowing they could be eliminated from the playoffs following the loss to the Browns, his statements regarding Eric Bieniemy during training camp and now admitting he didn’t realize in 2022 what Sam Howell could do.

These are good points in my book. And throw in his decision to start Wentz vs Cleveland to give the team a "spark". Observations like these seem to make it more clear that RR is not the future head coach to lead this team to the playoffs/Super Bowl even though he has helped stablize the organization with his leadership and culture building. 

RR reminds me of Charlie Manuel when he won the WS with the Phillies. Charlie was and is still beloved but wasn't a very good game day manager compared to his being a great motivator. Jimy Williams was the bench coach and made most of the tactical decisions during games, etc....

Maybe EB does that for RR and things get better? RR's career in DC likely depends on it.

[Skinsinparadise]

13 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

How would his arm compare to Kirk's?  I always thought Kirk had an "ok" NFL arm.  (Compared to [REDACTED], who had a Junior High School arm.)

 

 

Kirk by most observers is considered to have a good arm as far as arm strength. Ditto before the draft.  Not a great arm but good.  Pickett at least in college looked to have an average arm.   So as for arm strength Kirk > Pickett.  But I haven't watched Pickett in the pros.  While i am not a believer that you can increase your arm strength much, I think you can a little still when you are young.

 

13 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

To add to the point, I remember Walsh and Parcells both saying this at different times. 

 

Cooley, who's nowhere near at the level of those guys, was asked by Sheehan if QB was simplely "read, react, throw."  And Cooley said it was "Read, React/Throw" because the two things had to be done so quickly together.  This was ages ago either on the podcast or maybe even the radio show they did together. 

 

Yeah it makes sense.  And also explain why its not easy to succeed in the NFL for young QBs.   There is a lot to process and see in split seconds.

Edited September 5, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

Not bad, speaking of Kirk on the video below.  Alas though no Manning casts for us -- no MNF, no SNF.

 

 

.  Alas

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[CobraCommander]

27 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

I hope he takes over this league like a silent fart takes over an elevator. 

 

 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

2 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

And throw in his decision to start Wentz vs Cleveland to give the team a "spark". Observations like these seem to make it more clear that RR is not the future head coach to lead this team to the playoffs/Super Bowl even though he has helped stablize the organization with his leadership and culture building. 

I disagree, in fact - I think this was one of his better moments even though the results were awful.  He engaged team leaders to help him in making that decision.  There are still dudes on this team to this day, that swear Wentz got a raw deal here.  A lot of guys were good teammates and got behind Heinicke publicly, but they know they need more physical tools at the position to succeed.  The fact is Wentz came into the SF game and immediately the offense had pop.  A pop they hadn’t seen in months.  Wentz thought shriveled when it became his team again and apparently had a god awful week of practice leading up to the Browns game.  But you can’t just take the ball from him and give it to Heinicke or Howell after preparing Wentz all week.  The decision yielded awful results, but the process for making the decision I respected.

 

Where I take pause with Ron was trying to go back to Heinicke the very next week.  Just an awful look - from how he spoke about it to how it all shook out.  
 

 

[RandyHolt]

Dammit who am I going to drop from my pathetic fantasy team to add Howell...

[Captain James]

20 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

Dammit who am I going to drop from my pathetic fantasy team to add Howell...

You really don't need Ja'Marr Chase...

[FootballZombie]

Whoof. Dudes were not joking in here.

The belief in Pickett on the national level feels per-injury Purdy levels. Like an inevitability.

 

 

I have not watched much of Kenny's play last season, but he was crazy good in the preseason this year.

Shame the 9ers and Steelers play at the same time we do. I need to watch his game a little bit to build some personal takes.