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The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut


Koolblue13

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1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

 

Jalen is basically in a best case scenario right now, clearly a project last year that's become more respectable this year.  So you think we gonna take a QB in the 2nd round in 2023 to build our franchise around?  I can unfortunately think of a lot more things more likely to happen then that.

 

Nope. I'm not saying that.  But I am saying that stuff happens.

 

I also believe having a second round pick is better than a third round pick.  (Except for this team, it seems.;))  I also would like a decision on Wentz within an eleven game window. Don't ride out the year with him just because Heinicke isn't the answer.

 

I cannot believe Wentz will be a hot commodity next year, so I wouldn't hurry to extend him either.

 

 

 

 

 

 

:229:The Rook 

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It's almost a cliche its been said by every corner -- scouts, draft geeks, personnel guys on and on that the Holy Grail to win in this league aside from finding that elite QB is getting a cheap QB in the draft and riding that for 5 years.  Heck the Eagles flat out told the media that they are playing out that card with Hurts. 

 

I don't always agree with @wit33 examples of QBs who he thinks don't deserve big money but I do agree with his overall point about QBs and % of the cap.  He's made the point for years, ditto @volsmet who has relatives who work as personnel people in the NFL among others - which is don't overpay for mediocre QB play.  It costs you big time and yes you lose players.  See Tannehill for example -- Titans can't afford to pay AJ Brown and the Eagles can.

 

The fact that you can punt money forward doesn't make the cap ireelevant.  And as i pointed out many times (with a few people pushing back on me for this but most agree with me), Dan isn't one of those owners who does these days punt money forward with prorated bonuses, guaranteed money, etc -- he's one of the cheaper owners over the years.  So he's not the type to punt Wentz money forward to manipulate the cap anyway.

 

You don't need to be a math major to know that Wentz, 28 million, 27 million, 26 million makes it more difficult to sign another dude for 18-20 million.    Heck if people don't believe that listen to Rivera himself talk about how the Wentz deal limited what else they can do in FA.

 

Paying Wentz in the high 20s going forward based on how he's played or how he's looked IMO is crazy.  I've mostly had Rivera's back but if Rivera wants to double down on what looks like a mistake on Wentz and he ends up wrong, I'll become a critic real fast.  It's not some odd outlier take that what cripples teams in the cap is overpaying for a QB who doesn't produce.

 

Eagles got out of cap hell in part by ironically finding a cheap QB and loading up on cheap talent with draft picks.  And i believe they no longer have to pay for wentz. 

Is the Salary Cap a Myth?

The Brady and Mahomes situations illustrate that salary cap alchemy typically boils down to compensating the superstar quarterback first, then fitting the rest of the budget around him.

 

 

Even the cleverest cap model can backfire if a team cannot use success to sustain success. The Saints used reverse mortgage “die broke” tactics to pay Drew Brees through many years of Super Bowl near misses. With Brees’s retirement imminent, the Saints are so deep in deferred cap debt (an estimated $112 million) that they may be forced to pad their 2021 roster with season-ticket holders. The Philadelphia Eagles and the Los Angeles Rams overpaid quarterbacks Carson Wentz and Jared Goff (plus other top veterans) after trips to the Super Bowl in the 2017 and 2018 seasons. The Eagles are now facing an existential crisis, while the Rams are subsisting on the cap equivalent of maxed-out credit cards.

 

After the Super Bowl, a long list of in-house free agents (including starters like Lavonte David, Shaquil Barrett and Chris Godwin, plus the aforementioned mercenaries) will be vying for the Buccaneers’ very limited cap space while Brady, who turns 44 in August, prepares to once again plays chess with his own mortality. Even with all of their finagling, the Chiefs will enter the off-season an estimated $18 million over the cap, meaning that next season’s Chiefs probably won’t be as good as this season’s Chiefs. Both teams in this Super Bowl needed to get there to justify their efforts to stay one step ahead of the collection agency.

There is much more to “salary cap-enomics” than finding innovative ways to squeeze a Mahomes or a Brady into a budget — from extending in-house contracts before valued veterans reach free agency to avoiding spending sprees at positions like running back, where talent is plentiful and replaceable. Mostly, however, there’s no mystery to cap management, just the question of whether a team chooses to pay for its Super Bowl run today, tomorrow or by tacking almost a half-billion dollars onto the back end. Age and deferred debt eventually catch up to everyone. Even Tom Brady. Someday. Probably.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/28/sports/football/NFL-salary-cap-chiefs-buccaneers.html

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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4 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

And another thing, if anyone of you actually do believe that this season is worth salvaging, why not make some moves to fix the holes? Gotta be some IOL that could be had. 

 

Beef up the middle of the line, get the offense rolling, should work right?

 

I think you got to pick a lane and do it, go for it or rebuild.  Looks like the Giants sadly for us have some Eagles FO in them. 

 

 

 

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Wentz aint whiffing 26 mil next season. Not from us, not from anyone. Paying W that much after what we have seen would be worse than paying him the 28 this year, and I RAILED on that all offseason among other things.

 

He can take a paycut or he can get gone and as previously discussed it is in his best interest to take the paycut.

 

 

But make no mistake, we would not be in the same position as we were last year where we are walking on eggshells to make sure nothing is a threat to Wentz. The FO should be eyeballing other QBs hard. I'm talking about a level of intensity that makes everyone in the room uncomfortable.

 

 

Girl Staring at Guy's Chest: Image Gallery (Sorted by Views) (List View) |  Know Your Meme

 

 

Outside of injury there is no way post pay-cut Wentz is on any team in the NFL where he is the only potential QB1. He will either have Vet competition, or he is holding the clipboard until a high end young prospect is deemed ready. For me, I hope the focus is on a high end prospect.

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In 2 years they have wasted $38 mil on two QBs when they could have just started TH and build the lines and then selected a QB in the 2023 draft if one was available that they liked or went after. I know hindsight and all. But I had the foresight. I wasn't too happy about Ftiz but I still showed support for it and I wasn't happy about Wentz coming here. We are in the same spot in time after wasting $38 mil. Water under the bridge at this point. Just get your QB in the 2023 draft if Howell is not the long term answer.  I really don't want Wentz to be back next year. I am so done with retreads.

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Wentz not returning next season (regardless of his level of play, I guess unless he comes back in and goes out of this world to end the season?) because he doesn't want to renegotiate his salary cap hits is a real possibility.  I think everyone, regardless of being pro or anti Wentz, saw the way his contract was structured and realized that at least if he crashed and burned this season, the team put themselves in a position to be able to cut ties without owing tons of money.

 

That said, when we are talking Wentz vs Heinicke, how about this, if the running game continues to work as well as it did against the Packers for the duration of Heinicke's time in the game then when Wentz comes back, it would be a mistake on Scott Turner's part to throw out that style of offense just because Wentz has a different skillset.   When I watched Heinicke against the Packers, I tried to really focus not only on the success/failures but if there was anything I could pin-point that Heinicke was doing that I felt Wentz couldn't.  The answer continually was no.  Now, you can make the argument that Heinicke is more likely to settle for the checkdowns where as Wentz wants the homeruns, I can grant that, but I also think those checkdowns are a bigger part of the actual plan when Heinicke is in the game where as for Wentz those might be the 3rd or 4th read.  You could still clearly see that a lot of Heinicke's passes towards the sidelines were slow to get there and broken up/damn hear picked off.   Those weren't deep shots, they were simple out routes to move the chains.  

 

Maybe we can all agree that Heinicke's time under center for the next month has forced Turner to embrace the running game more and perhaps a lightbulb went off in his head, as the playcaller, that they should be running the ball more, regardless of who the QB is, until defenses show they can stop it.  That helped Heinicke a lot and would definitely help a statue like Wentz. 

Edited by NoCalMike
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IMO

 

Heincke > Wentz.  Tempo.  Motivating teammates.  Pocket Presence.  Mobility.

 

Wentz > Heinicke.  Arm strength.  Deep Ball.  Deep outs. 

 

The accuracy for both isn't IMO hot.

 

I think they bring different things to the table.  I was certainly in the Wentz > Heinicke crowd in the off season.  Now, i am less impressed than i thought i would be with Wentz.   The article I posted here about the value of mobilty in today's NFL IMO has been exposed in a big way with this team.  Heinicke is better at escaping pressure and with an O line that isn't hot at pass protecting, it helps.  Also, I think the flatness of how the offense looked with Wentz matched the tempo he played with.  i think Heinicke gave them a spark on that front.  does it last?  You got me.

 

I am getting pretty sold off of Wentz, granted the sample size isn't much but his lack of mobiity has been on display.  Wasn't hard to see last Sunday why Heinicke is a capable backup but not a starter.  Great dude, great coming off the bench -- teammates love him and he plays with gusto.  But IMO he doesn't have an average NFL arm or accuracy. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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34 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

Maybe we can all agree that Heinicke's time under center for the next month has forced Turner to embrace the running game more and perhaps a lightbulb went off in his head, as the playcaller, that they should be running the ball more, regardless of who the QB is, until defenses show they can stop it.  That helped Heinicke a lot and would definitely help a statue like Wentz. 

 

No lightbulb needed. They have already done this. During the 4 win streak last year Ron said they ran 6 more running plays in each of those games. So they already know this.

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3 hours ago, zCommander said:

In 2 years they have wasted $38 mil on two QBs when they could have just started TH and build the lines and then selected a QB in the 2023 draft if one was available that they liked or went after. I know hindsight and all. But I had the foresight. I wasn't too happy about Ftiz but I still showed support for it and I wasn't happy about Wentz coming here. We are in the same spot in time after wasting $38 mil. Water under the bridge at this point. Just get your QB in the 2023 draft if Howell is not the long term answer.  I really don't want Wentz to be back next year. I am so done with retreads.

No offense, but this reads more like you wanted to waste more time watching Heinicke, than it does a legitimate plan.

 

I’m not really connecting the dots on “building the lines” with the $38M.  Obviously the money could have been better spent.  But you build lines primarily through the draft.  
 

I recall you arguing to spend the money on “weapons”, and you weren’t alone.  The argument from the rest of us was what good are weapons if the QB can’t fully utilize them?

 

Running it back with Heinicke was simply not a serious option.  I get that the team likes him, but I think part of the charm is the fact that he is a backup.  The fact of the matter is the team had to make a move at QB and per usual, they made a bad one.  

 

 

 

Edited by BatteredFanSyndrome
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4 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

No offense, but this reads more like you wanted to waste more time watching Heinicke, than it does a legitimate plan.

 

I’m not really connecting the dots on “building the lines” with the $38M.  Obviously the money could have been better spent.  But you build lines primarily through the draft.  
 

I recall you arguing to spend the money on “weapons”, and you weren’t alone.  The argument from the rest of us was what good are weapons if the QB can’t fully utilize them?

 

Running it back with Heinicke was simply not a serious option.  I get that the team likes him, but I think part of the charm is the fact that he is a backup.  The fact of the matter is the team had to make a move at QB and per usual, they made a bad one.  

 

 

 

 

Yeah that is my main thing is that it seems like a lot of people are still holding out hope Henicke magically transforms into a starting caliber QB.  It's fine to point out the organizations absolute failure to secure a franchise QB, but the fact is, it isn't easy and at least 50% of the teams in the NFL have the same problem.  The failure to find the QB of the future, doesn't somehow turn Heinicke into a viable option. 

2 hours ago, zCommander said:

 

No lightbulb needed. They have already done this. During the 4 win streak last year Ron said they ran 6 more running plays in each of those games. So they already know this.

 

The lightbulb comment was more in the context of Turner not abandoning that plan just because Wentz returns, as the heavy dose of the run would be beneficial to him just as much as it is Heinicke. 

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2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

IMO

 

Heincke > Wentz.  Tempo.  Motivating teammates.  Pocket Presence.  Mobility.

 

Wentz > Heinicke.  Arm strength.  Deep Ball.  Deep outs. 

 

The accuracy for both isn't IMO hot.

 

I think they bring different things to the table.  I was certainly in the Wentz > Heinicke crowd in the off season.  Now, i am less impressed than i thought i would be with Wentz.   The article I posted here about the value of mobilty in today's NFL IMO has been exposed in a big way with this team.  Heinicke is better at escaping pressure and with an O line that isn't hot at pass protecting, it helps.  Also, I think the flatness of how the offense looked with Wentz matched the tempo he played with.  i think Heinicke gave them a spark on that front.  does it last?  You got me.

 

I am getting pretty sold off of Wentz, granted the sample size isn't much but his lack of mobiity has been on display.  Wasn't hard to see last Sunday why Heinicke is a capable backup but not a starter.  Great dude, great coming off the bench -- teammates love him and he plays with gusto.  But IMO he doesn't have an average NFL arm or accuracy. 

 

I will distill the Heinicke / Wentz comparison into a broad insight:

 

With Heinicke, the offense has an identity: power running with a mobile quarterback who loves mesh routes, crossers, 2nd level throws and the occasional deep ball. The passing game relies on getting the ball to playmakers and letting them get YAC.

 

It's far from perfect, Heinicke is limited, but I wouldn't be surprised if it's an easier game for Scott to call because he has a crystal, coherent sense of what he wants to do.

 

With Carson, I do not know what the identity of the offense is and I think that shows in Scott's play-calling, which can at times feel disjointed and does not do Wentz any favors.

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 The trend in football is to have a QB who is mobile, to help counter the speed of defensive linemen.

Thats one thing that Wentz will never be able to orchestrate; he runs like he's wearing concrete shoes. The biggest quality of TH is his ability to be elusive in the pocket and take off if there's a clearing of any form, even if its only 3-4 yd gains, but he's not taking sacks lying down. 

Wentz gets skittish behind the o-line { and who could blame him } but the speed of the d-lines are getting to him quicker, thus causing him to lose field vision, almost to a degree of temporary leg lock then eventual sack.

 

Its been said by many, Wentz just isn't the answer, just as he wasn't in Indy; he's another one-n-done QB who spewed then fell asleep, then forgot how to play. He does like throwing deep passes, and thats the issue with TH not being able to have a big arm, but with the trends TH is just better suited. Maybe Howell will be in a year or so, depending on training, but Wentz should not start another game for this team, sorry its the truth.

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53 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

No offense, but this reads more like you wanted to waste more time watching Heinicke, than it does a legitimate plan.

 

I’m not really connecting the dots on “building the lines” with the $38M.  Obviously the money could have been better spent.  But you build lines primarily through the draft.  
 

I recall you arguing to spend the money on “weapons”, and you weren’t alone.  The argument from the rest of us was what good are weapons if the QB can’t fully utilize them?

 

Running it back with Heinicke was simply not a serious option.  I get that the team likes him, but I think part of the charm is the fact that he is a backup.  The fact of the matter is the team had to make a move at QB and per usual, they made a bad one.  

 

 

 

 

You know I might have been over the top with Taylor but that was due to lots of back and forth bickering and people thinking I was an idiot. I got defensive. My stand got lost. It happens. 

 

As for the dots: You also build the lines through FA as well and not just the draft and if you have lots of money you can get better players on the market and you can do better trades too. You can't build just from the draft. I know you know that as well.  

 

When you are building you are doing just that. QB is the last piece you need. For example, like the last piece on top of the pyramid. The stones below it have to be in the right position to support and hold up the top piece. 

 

I know the FO or the coaches (pressured by Dan) didn't want to run it back with TH. And there lies the problem. I agree with you on that it was a bad choice which I think was made out of desperation rather then sitting back and saying okay what do we need to do to build this team correctly and not just trying to win the next season by dropping in only 1 player. We were no where near a QB away from being a contender. Us fans saw it but not Ron and FO didn't want to. At this point it is what it is. 

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42 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

 

Yeah that is my main thing is that it seems like a lot of people are still holding out hope Henicke magically transforms into a starting caliber QB.  It's fine to point out the organizations absolute failure to secure a franchise QB, but the fact is, it isn't easy and at least 50% of the teams in the NFL have the same problem.  The failure to find the QB of the future, doesn't somehow turn Heinicke into a viable option. 

Interesting, this hasn’t been my impression at all (unless you’re referring to fans in general and not the board).  In fact I’ve been pleasantly surprised that while people talk about TH fitting the offense better (as it stands now - mainly with our deficient pass pro), or the fire he plays with, they consistently talk about him not being the answer.

42 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

 

The lightbulb comment was more in the context of Turner not abandoning that plan just because Wentz returns, as the heavy dose of the run would be beneficial to him just as much as it is Heinicke. 

I agree with this.  One potential problem with this is that Wentz needs to be able to pick up 3rd downs.  I believe they tried to commit to the run vs TEN, but penalties, poor snaps, and (partially due to those things) going 1-11 on 3rd down didn’t let them pull it off.  Vs the Bears, they ran more than they passed (and ran well), but again 3rd downs sunk the offense.  Wentz was 1-9 on 3rd down (the team was 3 for 12, including 1 by penalty).

 

Continuing the commitment to the run is the smart/logical choice - it plays to our oline strength, our ability at the running back position, can wear defenses down and can help our D.  On the flip side, does this increase the number of 3rd downs we face?  Lead to more known passing situations?  Put our oline and qb under more pressure?

 

It’s going to be interesting to get a larger sample size.  GB blitzes a lot more than TEN/CHI, though the latter two aren’t far behind in pressure percentage.  That blitzing could have played a large part in picking up 3rd downs - whether it’s going to the hot read, or easier throws if the initial rush is avoided.  Of course, I’d assume TH’s mobility (to avoid the rush), and comfort in the system would give him the edge there, but at least the latter could change for Wentz.  Interesting that TEN is 1st in 3rd down defense, GB 3rd, CHI 30th (according to team ranking.com).

 

MIN blitzes far less, but also doesn’t pressure the qb as much as the others, so the matchup might not tell us too much.

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1 hour ago, NoCalMike said:

 

Yeah that is my main thing is that it seems like a lot of people are still holding out hope Henicke magically transforms into a starting caliber QB.  It's fine to point out the organizations absolute failure to secure a franchise QB, but the fact is, it isn't easy and at least 50% of the teams in the NFL have the same problem.  The failure to find the QB of the future, doesn't somehow turn Heinicke into a viable option. 

 

I am sure there are still fans out there who see that as an option since they haven't been this excited to watch a game since Kirk. It happens. The failure has been going on for the last 25+ year. When did we even try to get a franchise QB in the draft. Oh yeah overpaid for RG3 or moved up for Campbell or selected Haskins because his son went to high school with him. That is not how you find your franchise QB of the future. 

 

1 hour ago, NoCalMike said:

The lightbulb comment was more in the context of Turner not abandoning that plan just because Wentz returns, as the heavy dose of the run would be beneficial to him just as much as it is Heinicke. 

 

Gotcha. I think it has to do with falling behind and then trying to play catch up by passing more than running. But, I think the biggest reason was not being able to move the chains much or convert on 3rd downs so you can stay on the field longer to run more plays as well. They ran about 50 plays in the Bears game but in the Packers game they ran like 70 plays and controlled the clock with time of possession of about 40 minutes. You can do more running plays if you are able to move the sticks. This is something they haven't been able to do with Wentz. 

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50 minutes ago, zCommander said:

 

I am sure there are still fans out there who see that as an option since they haven't been this excited to watch a game since Kirk. It happens. The failure has been going on for the last 25+ year. When did we even try to get a franchise QB in the draft. Oh yeah overpaid for RG3 or moved up for Campbell or selected Haskins because his son went to high school with him. That is not how you find your franchise QB of the future. 

 

 

Gotcha. I think it has to do with falling behind and then trying to play catch up by passing more than running. But, I think the biggest reason was not being able to move the chains much or convert on 3rd downs so you can stay on the field longer to run more plays as well. They ran about 50 plays in the Bears game but in the Packers game they ran like 70 plays and controlled the clock with time of possession of about 40 minutes. You can do more running plays if you are able to move the sticks. This is something they haven't been able to do with Wentz. 

I will say (partly as an amendment to my earlier post on the 3rd down subject), we did see Wentz have more success with sustained drives prior to the oline falling apart.  And Larsen seems to have had an impact on his return.  Hopefully either Trai Turner is better once healthy or Sweitzer gets healthy soon to replace Charles.  Point being, there’s some hope Wentz can have success in this offensive style… especially if the pass pro ticks up.  Of course the pressure rate vs the Packers was concerning, and I’m not sure he’d have survived that (not necessarily physically, but in terms of production).

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14 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

Wentz aint whiffing 26 mil next season. Not from us, not from anyone. Paying W that much after what we have seen would be worse than paying him the 28 this year, and I RAILED on that all offseason among other things.

 

 

 

Agree, this borderline Joe Flacco version of Carson Wentz isn't getting anything in the high 20s from any team.  He keeps looking like this, he will be close to that Dalton-Trubisky range granted a peg or so higher but still in the category of ex-starters who are now marginal starters.

 

I was listening to a Colts reporter on Keim's podcast yesterday.  He's the 2nd reporter who disputed that the Commanders had competition for Wentz.  Russini is the one who debates that saying she heard there was one other team.  But in short, he thought Ballard got a good deal out of the Commanders.  He also said it wasn't just Irsay who wanted to move on from Wentz.  There was a feeling by some in that building that Wentz wasn't the answer so they might as well start over versus waste time with him -- when Keim asked why he said multiple reasons but the main ones were that Wentz plays his worst in big spots and he's not a natural leader.  He disputed the idea that Wentz is a bad guy, he goes he's a good guy but he's not a rally the troops type personality and that bothered some in that building after having QBs who have that peersonality including Rivers who was just there.

 

 

In 2023, Wentz is set to make $20 million in base salary with a $6.176 million roster bonus, eating up more than $26 million of the Commanders' cap. In 2024, the final year of his original extension, the numbers are similar with a $21 million base salary and $6.235 million bonus to count $27.235 against the cap.

Based on his shaky play early for the Commanders, Wentz won't be getting a restructured contract that earns him a bump in salary. It's now more likely Washington will want to just get out of the contract and find a true young franchise passer, most likely in the draft.

Wentz will turn only 30 in November but would be in play for a cheaper backup role should he disappoint the Commanders as much as he did the Eagles and Colts in the previous two seasons. 

 

https://www.sportingnews.com/us/nfl/news/carson-wentz-contract-commanders/eikb7bgjwn7njmgdx5wr2eaj#:~:text=Carson Wentz contract details&text=2 overall pick in the,signed through the 2024 season.

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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11 hours ago, NoCalMike said:

I tried to really focus not only on the success/failures but if there was anything I could pin-point that Heinicke was doing that I felt Wentz couldn't.

 

-Scramble

-Hit the check downs

-Convert third downs

-Escape pressure

8 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Running it back with Heinicke was simply not a serious option.  I get that the team likes him, but I think part of the charm is the fact that he is a backup.  The fact of the matter is the team had to make a move at QB and per usual, they made a bad one.  

 

I don't understand why Rivera didn't use the draft as his "splashy" move to add a QB.  Could have taken Pickett in the first round and this fanbase would have been excited, IMO.

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It isn’t that complicated.

 

Wentz and Heinicke aren’t the answers.

 

Heinicke will be cheaper to re-sign, possibly by around 15-20M. 
 

Can’t go into next season with either of them as the primary QB unless we can’t find a better option.

 

We won’t find a better option if we win 3-4 more games unless Howell is it.

 

Therefore: Wentz needs to go. Heinicke will likely be re-upped, Howell will get a chance and then we’ll see what else happens.

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