The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[The Consigliere]

43 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

The thing is, I don't think its possible for them to be identical(assuming we're talking Maye and Daniels here). They're both so different as prospects. Like, I could see Maye and McCarthy possibly having very similar grades. Or Penix and Daniels. But Maye and Daniels are just so different. If you love one its likely you probably hate the other.

If you switch out Daniels for Richardson, I'd be more excited about the backup option this year. Yes, I'd definitely be more worried about Richardson as a thrower, but I'd also be more excited due to Richardson's age (20 when he was drafted), and size profile. I can like Lamar/Richardson prospects, but they need to do the job when they're young, and have the size too. I loved Vick, and liked Richardson  a lot for those reasons (admittedly Vick wasn't Richardson size wise), and was interested in Lamar. Daniels age and years in college till breakout and size are just several very simple issues (and then there are a ton more when you dig under the hood). It's possible to like a Maye and a dual threat QB, but Daniels isn't the kind of dual threat guy I like. 

[Fred Jones]

7 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

I get the age/ceiling concern with Daniels v. Maye, just want to point that the bizarre combination of covid, NIL and the transfer portal has changed the college landscape, we are already seeing older draft classes and I think that will continue. 

How much did that affect Daniels?  The light turned on his fifth year.  Guy works hard - So, he was not working hard during Covid?  This is college football.  If the QB has talent he can transition between schools.  I just don't see it with either Daniels or JJ. 

 

Why did Michigan protect JJ?  They had a good running game and defense that kept them in games.  JJ should have shined more than he did.  Every time I watched him the last two years my eyes just didn't see a franchise QB.

 

In 2-3 years we will find out who is right and who is wrong.

[Rufus T Firefly]

1 hour ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

My only son passed away a long time ago, but sometimes I have dreams where we're together again doing silly things that seem real until I realize he's gone and this can't be happening and then I suddenly wake up and it fades away into the unknown and all that's left are those wonderful memories.

 

Thanks for sharing. :kowtow:

That's brutal. My deepest sympathies. I have lost two brothers, but I don't think even that is in the same universe as a child. Years ago, I would give myself legit panic attacks by just imagining something happening to my daughter. I can't imagine even being a (semi) functional adult if it had. 

 

I'm touched enough that I'll try to not to say anything insulting to you for... let's not get crazy, so 48 hours?

[alaroche04]

26 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

I could get way more behind maye if I knew for sure he didn’t need a whole year, or even two to sit and learn. Maybe he does, maybe he doesn’t. We don’t know the FO’s plan with him if he’s the pick. But I can’t get behind watching Mariota play the whole season as Maye sits, that would be painful to witness. I’m sure Quinn wants someone who’s ready to go day one without a doubt as he doesn’t have the luxury of throwing away the next 1-2 years 

I'm not so sure anyone but Caleb is ready to start Day 1.  I'm not convinced that Daniels reads the field well enough to be a Day 1 starter.

[MrJL]

People seem to think the Cards love MHJ at 4 but still assume that te Vikings NEED to get up to 4 to get one of the top QBs.  I wonder why almost no one is putting 5-7 in play.  No one thinks the Chargers, Giants or Titans are going QB.

 

 

[Kalu44]

4 minutes ago, alaroche04 said:

I'm not so sure anyone but Caleb is ready to start Day 1.  I'm not convinced that Daniels reads the field well enough to be a Day 1 starter.

By all reports, Daniels has the best read progression of any QB in the draft. That is why I am leaning his way at the moment. 

[Dah-Dee]

14 minutes ago, Fred Jones said:

How much did that affect Daniels?  The light turned on his fifth year.  Guy works hard - So, he was not working hard during Covid?  This is college football.  If the QB has talent he can transition between schools. 

 

Not arguing that, was just generally referencing the data on age/All-Pro and opining that I'll think we'll see a shift in the data in coming years due to the mentioned factors. Sorry for nerding out lol.

Edited April 17 by Dah-Dee

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

44 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

I could get way more behind maye if I knew for sure he didn’t need a whole year, or even two to sit and learn.

I feel like Jayden needs a year or two (at least) also.

[Warhead36]

16 minutes ago, MrJL said:

People seem to think the Cards love MHJ at 4 but still assume that te Vikings NEED to get up to 4 to get one of the top QBs.  I wonder why almost no one is putting 5-7 in play.  No one thinks the Chargers, Giants or Titans are going QB.

 

 

Cards incentive to trade down isn't that high. They already stockpiled a bunch of picks and need blue chip game changing talent to surround Murray. At some point you have a diminshing return on your total number of picks and need actual legitimate talent. Harrison plays a premium position and one of need and is as slam dunk a WR as you're gonna get. They won't pass him up unless they get some absurd offer that's never been seen before.

 

Chargers wanna move down. They have tons of holes and need cheap young players to surround Herbert who is just now entering the meat of his expensive contract extension, and Harbs is gonna wanna remold that team in his image. Teams are incentivized to trade up to 5 because the Giants at 6 are very likely to take a QB if one of the top 4 are available(don't think they take QB5 over Nabors).

[DaneSkin]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

The thing is, I don't think its possible for them to be identical(assuming we're talking Maye and Daniels here). They're both so different as prospects. Like, I could see Maye and McCarthy possibly having very similar grades. Or Penix and Daniels. But Maye and Daniels are just so different. If you love one its likely you probably hate the other.

I think this take is really interesting, because it touches on what I would venture is one of the things that makes QB drafting so difficult: that you might have two or three players that you can see working at somewhat the same level if placed into certain specific situations. And then it might come down to the question of exactly what traits you value most highly. 

 

Is it Maye’s arm talent and tantalizing potential? Is it Daniel’s deep ball and mobility? Or JJ’s intangibles and ability out of rhythm on critical third downs? And that answer is probably completely dependent on a large number of factors like:

• Do you not believe that you can supply an above average OL and therefore put a premium on Daniel’s ability to run and scare you off the more “traditional” QB’s as we have seen what 1-2 year sack-trauma can do to a rookie QB?
• Do you have an offensive minded head coach with a very strict philosophy pushing you towards a specific type of player?
• Who do you believe your coaching staff will connect the best with?
• Who is the best natural fit for the current OC?
• Etc.

 

I think that is why the “love” and “hate” duality that we sometimes embrace as fans is interesting, because it might just be so: a very clear picture of a objective best, second best, etc. Or it might at the end of the day be a hairs breath related to putting a premium on very specific traits that ends up tipping the scales, especially if players have very different traits but maybe similar overall grades as prospects.

 

And a reason this draft is so extremely interesting and hard to predict; because we really have no idea which way Peters leans on basically any question other than conjecture based on his history as scout and ASGM. 

 

Love reading all your guys’ takes by the way. As a European, the ES board has been an essential part of any basic football understanding I have.

Edited April 17 by DaneSkin
Missed a word

[The Consigliere]

50 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1c5s9th

 

Here is the chart showing draft ages for All Pros.

 

Almost every All Pro was age ~21 or younger when drafted. You also have quite a few at 22. The only ones that were 23 were Kittle, the Kelce brothers, and a couple other OL. And randomly LB Demario Davis.

Maye does not need a whole year and two years is just absurd hyperbole by the haters. At worst he'd sit for like 6-7 games and then take over after we inevitably start like 2-5 under Mariota, but honestly I feel like Maye could start day 1 and his biggest issue is just needing more live game experience.

It's one of the many reasons McLaurin scared me. Extremely overage, no college production. It was 100% a bet on traits and character. Dude turned 24 the month he took his first snap. The hit rate on prospects that age is so freaking low, and the percentage of elite WR's in the league with his profile is absolutely miniscule. You were betting on the ultimate of outliers, but he had things in profile that made it worthwhile in round 3 (athleticism, mental make up, reports I'm sure they had at Ohio State as to why he didn't play more, part of the reason being they had two mega producer WR's already). 

 

Sometimes these outliers hit, but outliers are outliers for a reason, and you forget how negative it is to be an outlier because you don't remember the busts, except when they are drafted at the very very top of drafts, you don't remember the absolute litany of WR's with those traits taken over the years who became nothing, you remember the random names that did hit, which causes its own weird bias which makes you want to ignore the reality that profile's exist for a reason, and if one cohort is responsbile for 85-90% of the hits in the league, and another is responsible for 10-15%, well the obvious choice should always be the former. 

44 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

I thought the same thing about Thomas and drops, and then I saw this (sorry for going off-QB-topic):
 

Full list in post:

 

Drop rates for some top WRs in the 2024 #NFLDraft:

 

• Johnny Wilson: 16.1%

• Javon Baker: 10.6%

• Devontez Walker: 8.5%

• Troy Franklin: 7.3%

• Keon Coleman: 7.2%

• Marvin Harrison Jr: 6.9%

• Ladd McConkey: 6.3%

• Xavier Worthy: 5.4%

• Malik Nabers: 4.9%

• Xavier Legette: 4.8%

• Rome Odunze: 4.8%

• Ja’Lynn Polk: 4.8%

• Brian Thomas Jr: 3.8%

• Adonai Mitchell: 1.7% 

 

 

I get the age/ceiling concern with Daniels v. Maye, just want to point that the bizarre combination of covid, NIL and the transfer portal has changed the college landscape, we are already seeing older draft classes and I think that will continue. 

People should read up on how Jamar Chase sucked rumors from August of '20 because of dropsy. Mathematically it's just not a sticky stat over large sample sizes. Doesn't change the fact that we do know some individuals that clearly never shedded the problem (Will Fuller being a notorious example) but it's not something that should be worried about. 

[KDawg]

52 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Either you're blind or, for some strange reason, you don't consider "hair" to be an attribute. 

 

 

I sit corrected. Thank you. 

[Jumbo]

There's one guy I know in the town I'm visiting  who is a Commanders fan. He's really wrapped in the fear blanket from bad juju permeating this franchise for so many years.

 

He's all thumbs up about the new f.o. and does fit in the group that likes Daniels or Maye over the others at #2 and thinks they're both strong choices, intellectually.

 

But emotionally he's swamped by a fearful belief that JD will not physically last 4-5 years and the Pats (he's a hater) will pick Maye and in their second year with him will be back to deep playoff runs and championships for years.

 

When I watch him discussing it I can actually see the fear. Much of this fan base is somewhat traumatized. 😬

 

Whoever we pick, these new guys better save what's left of us. 😄

 

 

[Warhead36]

13 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

It's one of the many reasons McLaurin scared me. Extremely overage, no college production. It was 100% a bet on traits and character. Dude turned 24 the month he took his first snap. The hit rate on prospects that age is so freaking low, and the percentage of elite WR's in the league with his profile is absolutely miniscule. You were betting on the ultimate of outliers, but he had things in profile that made it worthwhile in round 3 (athleticism, mental make up, reports I'm sure they had at Ohio State as to why he didn't play more, part of the reason being they had two mega producer WR's already).

Yeah I hated the McLaurin pick too. We have to thank Haskins(RIP) for that one. He insisted we draft him.

 

I think for McLaurin it was more just being stuck behind an absolutely loaded WR room.

[DogofWar1]

5 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

There's one guy I know in the town I'm visiting  who is a Commanders fan. He's really wrapped in the fear blanket from bad juju permeating this franchise for so many years.

 

He's all thumbs up about the new f.o. and does fit in the group that likes Daniels or Maye over the others at #2 and thinks they're both strong choices, intellectually.

 

But emotionally he's swamped by a fearful belief that JD will not physically last 4-5 years and the Pats (he's a hater) will pick Maye and in their second year with him will be back to deep playoff runs and championships for years.

 

When I watch him discussing it I can actually see the fear. Much of this fan base is somewhat traumatized. 😬

 

Whoever we pick, these new guys better save what's left of us. 😄

 

 

 

I mean, this fanbase has lived thru two of the gnarliest injuries in the history of the sport, and a 3rd absolutely heart wrenching one that just destroyed the hopes we had built up.  Two of them happened within the last 12 years.

 

If there is one fanbase allowed to panic about potential future injuries, it's us.

[CommanderInTheRye]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

It's worth knowing, too, or acknowledging that Lamar was actually considered a top 10 to top 5 pick at times in 2016-2017. People were worried he slipped a bit in '17 from what he did in '16 which caused him to drop. I also wonder if he'd gone higher if RGIII had never happened and Mahomes had won the starting job in '17 instead of '18. The view of running QB's is just much warmer today than it was six years ago. 

 

 

 I also wonder if he'd gone higher if RGIII had never happened and Mahomes had won the starting job in '17 instead of '18.

 

That's a great point.

 

The prevailing football zeitgeist, in the years following RGIIIs tragedy was basically that...

 

Running qbs get hurt easily and often, they leave the pocket too early, they lack the patience and discipline to read defenses, are poor passers so they take off and run to compensate for that, and because of all these things they can't  consistently win games.

 

The view of running QB's is just much warmer today than it was six years ago. 

 

Yes, it's refreshing to read all the generally positive posts on Daniels at various websites. That would not have happened before LaMarr, Hurts, Mahomes and to a lesser degree, Josh Allen.

 

The only website I frequent that seems to be an exception and contains a majority of pro-Maye posts (which I don't  mind at all) and at times truly venemous anti-Daniels posts (which sometimes do hurt at least a teensy weency little bit) is ironically my most favorite website of them all.

 

I wonder what that mysterious website is called? 😊

 

Even worse , some of the posters I respect and like the most, are the ones who make the best attacks of all-- the attacks that are like a deep knife thrust to the belly with a nasty twist added at the end-- just so those of us on the other side can feel the sincerity a bit better.

 

--sigh--

 

T minus 8 days and counting...

🙂

 

.

Edited April 17 by CommanderInTheRye

[Warhead36]

43 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

I feel like Jayden needs a year or two (at least) also.

No way. His advanced age and playstyle means he HAS to play day one. If he doesn't, the pick is already in question.

[The Consigliere]

19 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yeah I hated the McLaurin pick too. We have to thank Haskins(RIP) for that one. He insisted we draft him.

 

I think for McLaurin it was more just being stuck behind an absolutely loaded WR room.

Yep, and I've seen other examples of it since, so as sip likes to mention, figuring out the context when something doesn't make sense, can help you find the sense in it, and sometimes, like I say, you just pick the outlier and you're wrong  because most of the time you will be. Thankfully with McLaurin (and even Robinson last year), it didn't matter. 

[Dah-Dee]

Drake Maye is off the board for team-specific bets at DraftKings

https://www.nbcsports.com/nfl/profootballtalk/rumor-mill/news/drake-maye-is-off-the-board-for-team-specific-bets-at-draftkings

 

Where will quarterback Drake Maye be drafted? It’s one of the biggest questions for round one of the draft.

 

It also has prompted a major sportsbook to stop accepting one type of wager.

 

DraftKings has taken Maye off the board for any team-specific picks. He’s still an option for wagers tied to draft position — No. 2, No. 3, and No. 5, most notably.

 

Maye is currently +220 to go second overall. (Jayden Daniels is the favorite at -290.) Maye is the favorite to go third, at -145. He’s also the favorite to go fifth, at -2000. (The last one suggests that bettors see a team like the Vikings trading up to No. 5 to get Maye.)

 

Wagers aren’t currently being taken by DraftKings as to the specific team that will draft Maye. Apparently, that move flows from concerns that the volatility of the market coupled with the possibility of inside information could make DraftKings vulnerable to big losses.

[WashingtonRedWolves]

God forbid draftkings doesnt make a massive profit off of this

[Dah-Dee]

Happy Sack Day 🤪

 

 

 

[FootballZombie]

12 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

Apparently, that move flows from concerns that the volatility of the market coupled with the possibility of inside information could make DraftKings vulnerable to big losses.

 

I'm lost. How does that prevent a guy w/ inside info from ripping DK off?

 

If I know team X luvs a guy and will likely take him, I can still take DK to the cleaners.

[CommanderInTheRye]

5 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

Happy Sack Day 🤪

 

 

 

 

 

This proves it beyond a shadow of a doubt.

 

We can't draft either of these bums.

 

They both get sacked and we don't want that.

 

Hard pass.

 

Maybe we should take Ruvera's advice and draft a long snapper. I've never heard of one of them getting sacked.

[illone]

3 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

Agree completely. I think McCarthy is definitely the cleanest. But he's not the best in any category. Not the best size, durability, accuracy, deep ball, speed, etc. But he's okay to better in all of those things.

 

 

Accuracy is where he actually WAS the best in this draft class.

 

That's all I got 😂

 

[Est.1974]

9 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

Happy Sack Day 🤪

Catching up with the last few pages of this thread and it’s brought out so many topics, QB related, and personal related. Just what this place is about.

 

Then you get Happy Sack Day and wonder what’s comings next.