The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[SoCalSkins]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

I just don't see how the Pats can pass up on a QB. On the flip side, I actually think the Vikings might prefer McCarthy too. He'd be a perfect extension of that coaching staff.

 

If we don't take Daniels there could be a legitimately big slide.

Raiders are his floor but you do make valid points. 

[MrJL]

18 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

Moving down 1 spot is fun to fantasize about and an option I would be open to, but the NFL don't play like that when it comes to QBs.

 

We will identify our guy and take him at 2. No games.

San Fran and Chicago did for Mitch Trubisky and Soloman Thomas

[FootballZombie]

5 minutes ago, actorguy1 said:

 

 

 

The pressure for perfect dabs from all the other prospects must have been enormous w/ Adam Peters watching your every move from the shadows. Chunk one and you might be off the draft board.

 

High stakes man. High stakes.

 

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, Llevron said:

Why are we so hung up on current age again?

It has to do with ceiling for me. Daniels has 5 years of experience. How much more will he actually grow from here? Maye on the other hand had a comparable season to Daniels in many respects in his first season as a college starter. He has 3 years less experience. How much more will that guy grow? It is why I prefer Maye. His ceiling in through the roof imo. Daniels may have already been reached. For sure their arms are what they are at this point. Daniels isnt going to grow more velocity at this point. And his lack of arm strength concerns me in our division for sure. You need to be able to drive the ball in the Linc and Met Life. Especially in the fall and winter. 

Edited April 17 by clskinsfan

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, MrJL said:

San Fran and Chicago did for Mitch Trubisky and Soloman Thomas

San Fran wasn't taking a QB anyway, so they could more easily bluff that they'll trade down farther than Chicago with someone else.

 

We can't make that same bluff. Everyone knows we want a QB and can't risk trading too far down.

[SoCalSkins]

1 minute ago, MrJL said:

San Fran and Chicago did for Mitch Trubisky and Soloman Thomas

That only works if the team behind you feels you will trade with someone else who will jump them for their guy. If they think you are drafting someone else besides their guy and unwilling to trade down further than 1 spot why would they trade?

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It has to do with ceiling for me. Daniels has 5 years of experience. How much more will he actually grow from here? Maye on the other hand had a comparable season to Daniels in many respects in his first season as a college starter. He has 3 years less experience. How much more will that guy grow? It is why I prefer Maye. His ceiling in through the roof imo. Daniels may have already been reached. For sure their arms are what they are at this point. Daniels isnt going to grow more velocity at this point. And his lack of arm strength concerns me in our division for sure. You need to be able to drive the ball in the Vet and Met Life. Especially in the fall and winter. 

Exactly.

 

I don't understand why people have such a difficult time grasping this.

 

Younger prospects > older prospects assuming they're even remotely close. Its fairly universal.

 

On the flip side, if Maye were 24, I'd throw him in the trash as a prospect. He'd be Will Levis-tier to me.

[Voice_of_Reason]

18 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

Moving down 1 spot is fun to fantasize about and an option I would be open to, but the NFL don't play like that when it comes to QBs.

 

We will identify our guy and take him at 2. No games.

The only way that's not the case is if Peters legitimately has the same grade on 2 players.

 

If he has the same grade and the coaching staff basically says "either is fine, we can make both work" then it's the right thing to do to move back one spot.  Because you'll get assets and you'll get one of the two guys you have graded as even.

 

You could even argue if the grades were REALLY close but not identical, the benefit of taking the risk of getting the SLIGHTLY lower prospect is made up for the assets you acquire in the trade back.  

 

But the grades have to either be I. DENTICAL (see gif below) or REALLY REALLY REALLY close.

 

If that's not the case, you just take the guy you like and call it a day. 

 

[Warhead36]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

The only way that's not the case is if Peters legitimately has the same grade on 2 players.

 

If he has the same grade and the coaching staff basically says "either is fine, we can make both work" then it's the right thing to do to move back one spot.  Because you'll get assets and you'll get one of the two guys you have graded as even.

 

You could even argue if the grades were REALLY close but not identical, the benefit of taking the risk of getting the SLIGHTLY lower prospect is made up for the assets you acquire in the trade back.  

 

But the grades have to either be I. DENTICAL (see gif below) or REALLY REALLY REALLY close.

 

If that's not the case, you just take the guy you like and call it a day. 

 

The thing is, I don't think its possible for them to be identical(assuming we're talking Maye and Daniels here). They're both so different as prospects. Like, I could see Maye and McCarthy possibly having very similar grades. Or Penix and Daniels. But Maye and Daniels are just so different. If you love one its likely you probably hate the other.

[CommanderInTheRye]

14 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yeah honestly I don't think the Pats would even want Daniels. If we take Maye there is a really good chance they take McCarthy.

 

 

I could show you a litany of videos including one from Boston radio that say Daniels is now and has been for some time their target.

 

So much so, that if he's not available some claim they're more likely to trade their pick and if he's there, they're more likely to draft him.

 

In fact, there were rumors that Belichick fantasized about being in position to draft him DURING the season. Which led speculation that the reason he may have wanted to coach here was because he could draft Daniels.

 

However, this is all just pointless talk. Nobody knows what's real, nonody kniws what people really want or what they just want us to think they want.

 

We're all just pawns in their game, repeating somebodys agenda as if by doing so we prove that we know something meaningful and are privy to inside information.

 

Do you want to know the one fact in all this crazy noise that I believe with any degree of certainty?

 

 

 

T minus 8 days and counting...

 

.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 17 by CommanderInTheRye

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think all three of the big WRs:  Nabers, Harrison, Odunze are uber special

 

 

 

Listening to guys I respect in the dynasty analytics and tape grinding communities the consensus seems to be that the only WR prospects coming out of college the past decade that compare to MHJR and Nabers are Jamar Chase and Amari Cooper, and that's it. Not Lamb, Not AJ Brown or DK (who was injured his whole college career, kind of a reverse JK Dobbins), Not Garrett Wilson, not Drake London or Corey Davis or Calvin Ridley or DJ Moore. 

 

Basically MHJR and Nabers would probably rank 2 and 3 or 1 and 3 the past decade. Odunze is more complicated, there are some who view him in the same tier, but most separate him out into his own tier as tier 2 for the class, and I think Odunze is more in that Ridley/DJ Moore/Lamb/Jeudy/G. Wilson/Olave zone of guys historically though I'd rate him below Lamb, Moore, and Wilson, and higher than I had Ridley, Jeudy and Olave at the time.. As another analogy, MHJR, and Nabers look a lot like the AJ Green/Julio Jones debate from 15 years ago (or slightly less). 

 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, The Consigliere said:

Odunze is more complicated, there are some who view him in the same tier, but most separate him out into his own tier as tier 2 for the class, and I think Odunze is more in th

I have Thomas ranked over Odunze. He is far more dangerous after the catch imo. Thomas can get the dropsies at times. But to me he is a more lethal weapon than Odunze.

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Conn said:

I struggle to get past this

It's worth knowing, too, or acknowledging that Lamar was actually considered a top 10 to top 5 pick at times in 2016-2017. People were worried he slipped a bit in '17 from what he did in '16 which caused him to drop. I also wonder if he'd gone higher if RGIII had never happened and Mahomes had won the starting job in '17 instead of '18. The view of running QB's is just much warmer today than it was six years ago. 

[SoCalSkins]

If we pick Daniels it would have been so much better to have had the 3rd overall pick. Making an active choice to draft him over Maye is going to come with so much more scrutiny. Might be a drafting Sam Bowie over Michael Jordan type situation. Reputations could be permanently destroyed. 

[Conn]

25 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

Have you watched Dynasty about the Patriots? Bob Kraft has a type when it comes to QB. Bledsoe and Brady were like part of the family to him. Those guys will turn in the card for Maye in a split second if we go Daniels or give them #2.

One of the worst documentaries of all time, it would’ve been journalistic malpractice if it hadn’t been so obviously funded by Kraft—but I think you’re right about the QB’s, they seem to have a hard-on for Maye.

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Daniels ain't Jackson. Jackson won a league MVP at Daniels's current age. Won a Heisman at age 20. Lit it up playing for a mediocre at best Louisville program. He's also a different style runner. Way more elusive.

and thicker/built. Daniels definitely has that RGIII frame, but even worse, to me, Jackson is more sturdy, feels like a Cunningham kind of frame in a way. And yeah, Jackson was ridiculous in year 2, and very good in year 3 of college. 

2 hours ago, Llevron said:

 

Why are we so hung up on current age again? It seems silly to me but I understand there is some kind of indicator yall have honed in on that says if you are not an MVP before you are 23 then you are more likely to bust in the NFL? Something like that right? 

The earlier you breakout as a big time producer the higher the hit rate, the earlier you declare, the higher the hit rate. It aint great that Penix and Daniels played a gazillion years in college, period. When you filter traits for success rate, one of the biggest predictors of future success is having the big season very young and declaring young. Daniels did neither. He does have the caveat of covid though, which explains a bit of it. 

[Conn]

13 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

I could show you a litany of videos including one from Boston radio that say Daniels is now and has been for some time their target.

 

So much so, that if he's not available some claim they're more likely to trade their pick and if he's there, they're more likely to draft him.

 

In fact, there were rumors that Belichick fantasized about being in position to draft him DURING the season. Which led speculation that the reason he may have wanted to coach here was because he could draft Daniels.

 

However, this is all just pointless talk. Nobody knows what's real, nonody kniws what people really want or what they just want us to think they want.

 

We're all just pawns in their game, repeating somebodys agenda as if by doing so we prove that we know something meaningful and are privy to inside information.

 

Do you want to know the one fact in all this crazy noise that I believe with any degree of certainty?

 

 

 

T minus 8 days and counting...

 

.

 

 

 

 

I could see this being true, since people give Kraft **** all the time for not drafting Lamar, and that’s the easy media comp 

[SoCalSkins]

Just now, The Consigliere said:

and thicker/built. Daniels definitely has that RGIII frame, but even worse, to me, Jackson is more sturdy, feels like a Cunningham kind of frame in a way. And yeah, Jackson was ridiculous in year 2, and very good in year 3 of college. 

Lamar actively seeks to avoid contact. Daniels either seeks it or doesn’t have field vision to avoid it. All it takes is 1 bad hit and a career is permanently altered. You can go from offensive player of the year to social media personality with a single hit. 

[WashingtonRedWolves]

I could get way more behind maye if I knew for sure he didn’t need a whole year, or even two to sit and learn. Maybe he does, maybe he doesn’t. We don’t know the FO’s plan with him if he’s the pick. But I can’t get behind watching Mariota play the whole season as Maye sits, that would be painful to witness. I’m sure Quinn wants someone who’s ready to go day one without a doubt as he doesn’t have the luxury of throwing away the next 1-2 years 

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

There are a few reasons:

 

1. Breakout age is highly correlated to NFL success. Typically, the best NFL players are ones who breakout early. The age is usually around 21-22 at the latest. There is actually a spreadsheet on Reddit that shows all the current NFL all pros and the age in which they were drafted. Almost all of them were drafted in the 21 range. A few 22. I think the only one at 23 was George Kittle and maybe a couple of OL.

2. Daniels's advanced age dilutes his college success. Its a lot easier to look good when you have five years of experience and are 23 going up against 20-21 year olds with a lot less experience. Especially when Daniels's biggest competitors at his position are super young(both Maye and McCarthy are only 21, and Maye looked fantastic in his age 20 season compared to Daniels being pretty "meh.")

3. NFL growth potential is limited the older you are. This is even more of an issue for a guy like Daniels whos game relies on mobility/athleticism. Traits like that tend to drop off around age 27(even Jackson is slowing down a bit at 27 but he's still lightning fast and improved a lot as a passer). So we get a guy like Daniels, the prime window is essentially only four years until he starts to hit that physical decline, and its uncertain if his passing can make up for it since he has an average at best arm.

I definitely took an L on Rosen. Liked him a lot. Mayfield was my #1. Rosen 2. Did not like Allen at all. Darnold I was unsure about. Jackson I felt in the right system could have an RG3 like early impact but was uncertain about his passing ability.

 

If I had to rank them it would have looked like:

 

1. Mayfield

2. Rosen

3. Darnold

4. Jackson

5. Allen

 

So yeah, I whiffed on Jackson and Allen, but just about the entire league did. Mayfield has been solid. My big L was Rosen, but I also was not privy to the personality stuff.

 

But I also didn't really analyze any of the QBs that hard that year, since we weren't going to pick any of them anyway. 

Just to go back over the years more recently:

'15 and '16: I loved Winston, had no opinion on Mariota, thought Goff should be a 2nd or 3rd rounder and had no idea why Wentz was getting so much love.

'17:

1. Mahomes

2. Watson

I had Trubisky as Do Not Draft, and I was scared as hell about Watson's velocity #'s.

 

'18:

1. Baker

2. Tie between Darnold and Rosen

4. Lamar

I wouldn't touch Josh Allen due to the accuracy issues

 

'19:

1. Kyler

I rejected Danny Nickels entirely and thought Haskins was more of a 20th-45th guy.

 

'20:

1A: Burrow

1B: Tua

3. Herbert

 

'21:

1A. Lawrence

1B: Fields

3. Lance

4. Mac Jones

Zach Wilson was off my board

 

'22:

1.Malik Willis

2. Sam Howell

3. Corrall

 

Pickett and Ridder were off my board. To be fair, the Willis love was mostly about dual threat dynasty fantasy value, and I wouldn't have taken any QB in round 1. 

 

'23:

1.Richardson

2A Young

2B Stroud (I bought the S2 crap)

 

Going back earlier: I had no draftable first round guys for '13 or '14

I ranked the famed '12 class:

1. Luck

2.RGIII

3. Foles

4. Tannehill

5. Brock Lobster

6. R. Wilson

Weeden was a Do Not Draft due to age and general bunkness

 

2011:

1.Newton

2.Locker

3. Dalton

4. Mallett

5. Kap

Do not draft for Ponder and Gabbert

 

I thought Clausen was a value in '10.

 

Very spotty needless to say. Pretty good at sniffing out do not drafts, but hit rate was a mess at best. 

 

Edited April 17 by The Consigliere

[Warhead36]

https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1c5s9th

 

Here is the chart showing draft ages for All Pros.

 

Almost every All Pro was age ~21 or younger when drafted. You also have quite a few at 22. The only ones that were 23 were Kittle, the Kelce brothers, and a couple other OL. And randomly LB Demario Davis.

2 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

I could get way more behind maye if I knew for sure he didn’t need a whole year, or even two to sit and learn. Maybe he does, maybe he doesn’t. We don’t know the FO’s plan with him if he’s the pick. But I can’t get behind watching Mariota play the whole season as Maye sits, that would be painful to witness. I’m sure Quinn wants someone who’s ready to go day one without a doubt as he doesn’t have the luxury of throwing away the next 1-2 years 

Maye does not need a whole year and two years is just absurd hyperbole by the haters. At worst he'd sit for like 6-7 games and then take over after we inevitably start like 2-5 under Mariota, but honestly I feel like Maye could start day 1 and his biggest issue is just needing more live game experience.

[Rufus T Firefly]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

 

Agree completely. I think McCarthy is definitely the cleanest. But he's not the best in any category. Not the best size, durability, accuracy, deep ball, speed, etc. But he's okay to better in all of those things.

Either you're blind or, for some strange reason, you don't consider "hair" to be an attribute. 

 

[FootballZombie]

Just now, Rufus T Firefly said:

Either you're blind or, for some strange reason, you don't consider "hair" to be an attribute. 

 

Follicle jealousy is rarely a pretty thing. Some people can't bring themselves to acknowledge it.

 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, SoCalSkins said:

If Daniels came out at Lamar’s age, he would probably have been a 5th rd pick. Same as what Peters supposedly told him.

 

You take out 2023 and Jayden is still a 4th or 5th rounder. Having a single good year as a 5 year player is suspect.
 

Dude is a guaranteed bust in the making. All the red flags are there. 1 year wonder. Problems in the locker room at ASU. Aloof and self centered in his interviews always about him instead of the team. Toothpick frame that will never last a full NFL season. It’s not only wasting the second overall pick on him it’s the 2 to 4 years of wasted time before we trade the sunk cost. Should have kept Howell if this was the direction Peters is taking. 

I think its more nuanced than that. The sense I get was he was a 4th round to 5th round graded guy based off his '19-'21, and a 50th-85th guy based on his '22.

 

That's part of what bothers me too though: all those years are real and relevant. If you have a huge year, you don't suddenly get to pretend that the player is now whomever they were in '23. No, in '23 they were who they were in '23, who they are, is '19-'23, and if we're lucky, '23 is reflective of where they're headed more than '19 or '21 or '22, but a players career in college is their career. If players were simply their best years, they wouldn't bust. 

 

Thats part of what annoys me: Look at all Maye's starts you can look at it in '22 and '23 because that's who he is as of now, not '23 alone, not '22, and same for Daniels. Player production, growth, and performance fluctuate over time at the NFL and college level. It is exceptionally rare to see an arrow just point upward, period, like some dream production possibilities curve that keeps carving its way higher into the frontier. 

 

 

[Dah-Dee]

25 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I have Thomas ranked over Odunze. He is far more dangerous after the catch imo. Thomas can get the dropsies at times. But to me he is a more lethal weapon than Odunze.

 

I thought the same thing about Thomas and drops, and then I saw this (sorry for going off-QB-topic):
 

Full list in post:

 

Drop rates for some top WRs in the 2024 #NFLDraft:

 

• Johnny Wilson: 16.1%

• Javon Baker: 10.6%

• Devontez Walker: 8.5%

• Troy Franklin: 7.3%

• Keon Coleman: 7.2%

• Marvin Harrison Jr: 6.9%

• Ladd McConkey: 6.3%

• Xavier Worthy: 5.4%

• Malik Nabers: 4.9%

• Xavier Legette: 4.8%

• Rome Odunze: 4.8%

• Ja’Lynn Polk: 4.8%

• Brian Thomas Jr: 3.8%

• Adonai Mitchell: 1.7% 

 

11 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

https://www.reddit.com/gallery/1c5s9th

 

Here is the chart showing draft ages for All Pros.

 

Almost every All Pro was age ~21 or younger when drafted. You also have quite a few at 22. The only ones that were 23 were Kittle, the Kelce brothers, and a couple other OL. And randomly LB Demario Davis.

 

I get the age/ceiling concern with Daniels v. Maye, just want to point that the bizarre combination of covid, NIL and the transfer portal has changed the college landscape, we are already seeing older draft classes and I think that will continue.