The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Panninho]

Lol, who has lied to Keim?

 

 

[jg77]

8 minutes ago, Panninho said:

Dude, everyone says something different. This is getting absurd. 😅

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We should prepare for the possibility for JJ at pick #2 lol.

[dyst]

If only we had the #1 or if the Bears didn’t need a QB.

[DWinzit]

20 minutes ago, jg77 said:

Taking Maye over Daniels could easily be like Chicago taking Trubisky over Mahomes and Watson.  Nobody knows anything on how these prospects will turn out.

You can swap Daniels and Maye in that statement and maybe even add JJ in there

[Skinsinparadise]

45 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

In fairness, that is ugly as hell. 

 

Additionally, no matter how good you are at this, the best anyone is is generally 45-55% over a long sample size. I don't believe anyone is hitting at 60% or more over a long enough stretch to be reasonably correlated to genuine talent at eval. 

 

I'll also note, hit rate recently tends to inflate people's #'s. QB's have hit a lot more at the top of the draft since '16 compared to 1984-2015. Goff, Mahomes, Watson, Baker, Allen, Lamar, Kyler, Burrow, Herbert, (Tua Kinda), Lawrence, Stroud, Richardson. Compare that to the entire decade of the nineties where literally everyone busted who was taken early other than Bledsoe and McNabb. 

 

I was just listening to Schatz on Galdi who helped invent Football Outsiders eons ago, promoting the metrics he's using now.  i didn't know he was a Pats fan but he explained he hopes Daniels falls to three, he likes him the best of the three.  But his metrics indicate per your point that all these guys have some high bust possibilities of course.  He seemed higher on Maye than McCarthy even though McCarthy did better on his metrics

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

It would suck.

 

Likewise it would suck if Maye is the next Wentz or Bortles and Daniels is the next Lamar.

 

I see some make the point that its only OK if they took Maye and he fails, that's fine -- there is no wrong answer with Maye sink or swim.   Daniels succeeding and Maye failing is fine.

 

It's not fine for me either way.  No double standard for me on this. 

 

@Conn nailed it for me.  Like him, like you, I prefer Maye.  But I agree with him that its unhealthy to have that level of certainty about what the right and wrong move is.  This is picking QB -- the same spot that so many fail at, including anyone here.  It's more than fine to have a preference but this isn't an absolute certainty game.   Not even close.

 

And heck if I genuinely believed it was that level ridiculous as to the choice being that level clear, I'd have zero fear that they aren't take Maye.  Zero.  

I do think some people are just fundamentally different when it comes to interpreting how and why something sucks. I don't mind a team missing if they used good process and best practices, and the random realities of a game where prospects inevitably fail, came home to roost. I do mind, when you have bad process, ignore warning signs that should be obvious, and draft a bust. I used the Mayock Raiders as an example, the Wizards under Shepard with Johnny Davis are another example etc. I'm gonna be bummed and angry at a miss when its stupid, like say, Forbes over Gonzalez looks right now, but I'm not gonna be mad if my team say, takes a Miles Sanders in round 2 over say, a guy like Brian Robinson, a few years later, and misses. 

 

I'll be sad rather than angry. Some people just get pissed at misses, over the years I've just become more concerned with GM's/Scouts/FO's etc that are just using poor methodology and process and sometimes hitting due to randomness, and sometimes (more) missing due to process as much as anything. I'll take the misses as long you're misses are the inevitable outcomes from a difficult business that can't be perfected, over misses that are a product of delusional stupidity like say, Gettleman, or John Dorsey types, or our own Bruce Allen and Cerrato and Casserly types. 

[Warhead36]

I don't think McCarthy is a bad QB. But I don't see him as someone who can elevate a franchise. I think he'll be one of those Purdy types where he plays well on a good team. I just don't think you can take a guy like that at #2. But if he goes to the Vikings, he'll do really well in that system throwing to those receivers. Its the ideal fit.

2 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I do think some people are just fundamentally different when it comes to interpreting how and why something sucks. I don't mind a team missing if they used good process and best practices, and the random realities of a game where prospects inevitably fail, came home to roost. I do mind, when you have bad process, ignore warning signs that should be obvious, and draft a bust. I used the Mayock Raiders as an example, the Wizards under Shepard with Johnny Davis are another example etc. I'm gonna be bummed and angry at a miss when its stupid, like say, Forbes over Gonzalez looks right now, but I'm not gonna be mad if my team say, takes a Miles Sanders in round 2 over say, a guy like Brian Robinson, a few years later, and misses. 

 

I'll be sad rather than angry. Some people just get pissed at misses, over the years I've just become more concerned with GM's/Scouts/FO's etc that are just using poor methodology and process and sometimes hitting due to randomness, and sometimes (more) missing due to process as much as anything. I'll take the misses as long you're misses are the inevitable outcomes from a difficult business that can't be perfected, over misses that are a product of delusional stupidity like say, Gettleman, or John Dorsey types, or our own Bruce Allen and Cerrato and Casserly types. 

Yeah I agree. Its why I don't kill Rivera for the Young bust. He was a consensus player. Sometimes the entire league just misses.

 

I also don't kill guys for taking home run swings on blue chip players. Its why I don't kill the Shanahans or even Snyder for the RG3 trade. And its why I wouldn't kill Peters if he takes Maye and he busts. I'll always give credit and value to guys who take big swings to get out of NFL poverty.

 

But like you said, when you miss on OBVIOUS, like passing on Gonzalez for Forbes or passing on Olave/Hamilton for Dotson(albeit the trade down did net some good value), or passing on Darrisaw for Davis, then yeah you deserve to be killed for that.

[Skinsinparadise]

All of the QBs together sharing a meal, mayhem coming?

 

 

[Conn]

20 minutes ago, Panninho said:

Dude, everyone says something different. This is getting absurd. 😅

 

 

 

 

 

 

If the 49ers already do this then who gives a ****, it’s valid 

[CommanderInTheRye]

17 minutes ago, Panninho said:

Dude, everyone says something different. This is getting absurd. 😅

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In a free flowing semi-structured group setting and assuming the emphasis is on evaluating social interaction dynamics my guess is that McCarthy might end up hard to beat.

[Going Commando]

19 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I shouldn't be speaking for him, but honestly when it comes to looking at those guys, I think what Commando and I both have is our Zach Wilson/Trey Lance/Danny Dimes going off like a fire alarm. At

 

I'd say that is the essence of it for me.  I don't have nearly enough confidence in the bet on Daniels to beat the confidence I have in the bet on Maye.  I think Maye is about as good a bet as a team can get on picking a QB high.  I think he looks like the QBs who are the best in the league, I think his upside is in their world, and I think his fit for this franchise is close to ideal.  I don't think any of that is the case with Daniels.  Could he work out?  Absolutely.  But why take the long shot?

 

The groupthink about Jayden also makes me angry because I think it is so inaccurate.  I don't like being gaslit or sold a bunch of BS.  It feels like the reason so many of the talking heads are comfortable foisting Daniels off on us is because they think we're the ****ty little brother of the NFL and they would rather see Maye end up on one of the good franchises.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

14 minutes ago, jg77 said:

We should prepare for the possibility for JJ at pick #2 lol.

Don’t waste your time.

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

 

In a free flowing semi-structured group setting and assuming the emphasis is on evaluating social interaction dynamics my guess is that McCarthy might end up hard to beat.

 

Not so sure.  McCarthy strikes me more killing it one on one talking with adults versus joshing with the other kids.

 

This might favor Maye, I'd think.  He's jocular and has a baiting style of sense of humor which i think might work easier in a crowd like this.

 

Jayden is shy.  So I wonder about him.  But I recall seeing him joke around with Maye so I think those two get on well.

[Conn]

1 minute ago, Going Commando said:

It feels like the reason so many of the talking heads are comfortable foisting Daniels off on us is because they think we're the ****ty little brother of the NFL and they would rather see Maye end up on one of the good franchises.

I do agree with this, I posted the other day that I think it’s meaningful that people love to give us Daniels at 2 in their mocks so they can talk about the intrigue of Maye at 3 for the Patriots or Vikings or Giants in a trade. Us taking Daniels is the means by which they can talk about how great Maye would be, and how he’s worth trading up for, for any of those franchises. It definitely rubs me the wrong way 
 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Because of the same point I debated with you some months back when you reference "this franchise"

 

By just about every account, this franchise sucked for one specific reason.  Dan Snyder.  You didn't spend much time posting on the GM-owner thread over the years.  But we'd lament over and over again about how much Dan Snyder destroyed this franchise.   As much as I loved this team, cared about the draft, personnel, all of it -- my #1 desire by a country mile was to be rid of Dan.  Everything else was a distant 2nd.  And now he's gone.

 

Dan wasn't a sidebar to the demise of the franchise.  He was the lead actor and the whole cast.  He's gone.  It's 100% different.  That's been evident to death.

 

I became a fan in the 80s.  I saw that this was one of the best run franchises in the country.  It was lauded for it's class and competence.  There was a period when this franchise was worth more than the Cowboys.    Albert Breer actualy had a great post on this once which is he's never seen a model franchise destroyed the way Dan Snyder destroyed this one.

 

To cite that its a "franchise" issue gives credit to Dan like the poor sap inherited a perrennial losing organization and it just continued under his watch.  But the opposite is true.  He turned a name brand into a joke.  He's gone.  

 

I never participated in that thread, but I'd definitely quibble. The roots of the downfall were the terrible drafts the team had from 1984-1992 and the Gibbs era ended just as free agency began and we had nothing, absolute nothing from a decade of crap draft classes to build around, the vets that lead us to being a top 4-6 team in the league from 1990-1992 retired or left via Free Agency and Plan B, and we not only failed to replace them with the '84, '85, '86, '87, '88, and '89 classes, but we whiffed on a HUGE and disproportionate # of our picks from 1990-1998. That was was why the team was straight --- for literally half a decade before Snyder even sniffed around the carcass. Snyder compounded things times 1000, but it was like smashing a zombie in Dawn of the Dead, we were already expired six years earlier, and rotting, Snyder just dug a deeper hole, and made it impossible to climb out over the next two decades. He's the satan of owners basically although that is giving him too much credit, probably more accurate to say he was like Jack Warner-an entitled, nouveau riche idiot, who'd randomly stumbled into success, and thought it was his own genius when it was the opposite (his own behavior constantly putting at risk the golden goose that was Warner Brothers/the redskins). 

 

I agree w/your point to commando, it's more accurate to judge organizations typically on the mix of owner and GM/Coach and how well and effectively they work together. With the Redskins, one of the weirdest things about the past 39 years is that the origins of the disaster started during the success of the eighties (the USFL dispersal drafts and some great trades blunted the impact of a decade of consecutive crap drafts from Beathard and Casserly), and that while Snyder sucked, the hole he had to climb out of was already mighty deep in 1999. In a truly odd twist of fate, Cerrato, a true idiot of idiots when it comes to GM's, was still better on draft day than Casserly ever was, even Bruce Allen was better than Casserly....

 

But man....I'm digressing, I just like to make sure people remember, as much as we loathe Snyder, the Cooke-Casserly-Turner/Petitbone years were equally horrible in terms of on field performance, and the roots of the misery stretch all the way back to 1984. 

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

The groupthink about Jayden also makes me angry because I think it is so inaccurate.  I don't like being gaslit or sold a bunch of BS.  It feels like the reason so many of the talking heads are comfortable foisting Daniels off on us is because they think we're the ****ty little brother of the NFL and they would rather see Maye end up on one of the good franchises.

 

Tough for me to believe they all secretly prefer Maye but will say the opposite publicly in the hope that group think overtakes Peters' process and takes the wrong player -- and the rest of the NFL much prefers NE where they've embraced their long league dominance, upset about the recent hiccup and they hope NE's domance re-emerges?

 

I get other teams with skin in the game trying to do it but how would it actually succeed?

Edited April 16 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, seantaylor=god said:

I’ll be apoplectic. The same way I would feel if we took Maye and he turned into bad Carson Wentz, or a less athletic, more inconsistent Trevor Lawrence and Jayden Daniels ends up being Joe Burrow with wheels.

 

I guess we will just have to see how it goes. Both could fail miserably.

There's at least like a 35-45% chance of that happening regardless of whom we take. Its just the reality of QB drafting. Just thank the heavens for whatever reason, QB's have been hitting more the past eight years compared to the previous 40. 

 

I wont be as angry if Maye fails simply because I think its the right decision, while recognizing the risk, even if its the right decision, he's joe average or a mega bust 4 to 4.5 or 5 times out of 10. That's reality. I just think Daniels is Joe average or Mega Bust about 5-6.5 times out of 10, which is why I can't understand this. It's not some situation where I'm 1000% sure like Luck or to a lesser degree Lawrence, these guys are a tier above the guys you saw with dice roles in '15, '16, '18, '21, '23, but they are still, 35-60% chance of bust options depending upon your eval of where they fit historically (and if you remove your own or my own biases, it may be more 40-55% than 35-60%). 

[CommanderInTheRye]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Not so sure.  McCarthy strikes me more killing it one on one talking with adults versus joshing with the other kids.

 

This might favor Maye, I'd think.  He's jocular and has a baiting style of sense of humor which i think might work easier in a crowd like this.

 

Jayden is shy.  So I wonder about him.  But I recall seeing him joke around with Maye so I think those two get on well.

 

 

Agree that Jayden may have challenges today. Not the ideal setting for him.

 

Maye will be better than Jayden, but he runs the rusk of overtrying imho. He has a tendency to almost express what I'd call borderline manic energy. 

 

The longshot candidate that might surprise everyone with his composure, experience, confidence, and natural leadership ability is Penix.

 

Still think this setting suits McCarthy well. We'll have to agree to disagree on that. 

 

I would love to be part of the evaluation team on this. 

[ANONYMOUS SOURCE.]

Visits are probably to gauge personality fit more than anything, or ….Maybe Peters has figured out a way to draft them all and let them battle it out Thunderdome style😂

[Bantu]

Going to be a busy day for the training/medical staff there today

[Bifflog]

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I get other teams with skin in the game trying to do it but how would it actually succeed?

 

It would only succeed if Peters is a moron, it's the entire crux.

 

What is the inverse of Main Character Syndrome?

[Bantu]

1 minute ago, ANONYMOUS SOURCE. said:

Visits are probably to gauge personality fit more than anything, or ….Maybe Peters has figured out a way to draft them all and let them battle it out Thunderdome style😂

Was listening to Bucky Brooks & Daniel Jeremiah on Move the Sticks and also Randy Mueller and Mike tanenbaum pm various other shows and they ALL mentioned how these visits were used for every reason you could think of and it wasn't only a last look at who they MAY end up taking. Really interesting in how the predraft process works 

[Going Commando]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Tough for me to believe they all secretly prefer Maye but will say the opposite publicly in the hope that group think overtakes Peters' process and takes the wrong player -- and the rest of the NFL much prefers NE where they've embraced their long league dominance, upset about the recent hiccup and they hope NE's domance re-emerges?

 

I get trying to do it but how would it actually succeed?

 

I don't think the media mouthpieces have many original thoughts or takes.  I think they generally just regurgitate takes given to them by chatty teams and agents, and I think that's mainly who has been pushing the Jayden to DC story in the hopes they can influence outcomes.  And yeah, I absolutely think the broader world doesn't want Maye to end up here.  They either want him for themselves or they just don't see him being successful here.

[Dah-Dee]

17 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

All of the QBs together sharing a meal, mayhem coming?

 

 

 

 

Or.....

 

[skinny21]

I’d be fascinated to see some sort of a metrics aggregate.  It’s a shame so much great info is buried throughout this (voluminous) thread.