The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[BMagic]

At first I dismissed the Cowherd report that they'd pick Daniels, but now that I think about it, I vaguely remember him saying Kingsbury to DC a few days before the national circuit got it. If that's the case, he may be plugged in to folks around Kingsbury.

[Fred Jones]

34 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

I am curious what the dialogue in the front office was about Penix, and find it interesting that we brought him in. 

 

GMAP is a smart guy.  As a smart GM he brought Penix in for the standard duel dilligence.  I think he also brought him to get information on him.  Never know when you might need that information in the coming years.  I also think he brought him in to learn.  Meaning, develop a draft profile and see it that profile works in the coming years.  Have to do the work and research to get better at drafting.

[Anselmheifer]

The thing to me that is reassuring about the Daniels smoke, is that it is nothing like the Forbes smoke. The Forbes smoke was that we were going to take Forbes. The Daniels smoke is that there may be an emerging consensus among coaches and the scouting community that Daniels is actually better. That's not how I feel about it, but my track record is terrible. Although, it's often been terrible in the sense that I've missed by overvaluing production and accuracy and undervaluing traits. 

[Warhead36]

If our reason for drafting Daniels is because he fits Kingsbury's offense better then we're an even  bigger joke than I thought. You don't draft a QB to fit your OC. You draft the best QB and make the OC fit the offense around him.

 

Also, Maye has experience with the air raid. He's a better fit for KK.

[Conn]

1 hour ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

Just to be clear, I don't think Ben Johnson would have led us to a better record than Quinn. I prefer Quinn as a coach. I just thought Johnson was the perfect guy to bring up a young QB, and I didn't care about wins in the first few years. Maybe that's naive. 

And just to be clear, I feel like it comes off that I'm crapping on Daniels and don't like him at all as a prospect. I like Daniels. Again, if we were picking at 3, I would be ecstatic to draft Daniels. I just think that picking the older guy with less traits, less historical precedent in terms of similar prospects, and some concerning analytics is bad process. Daniels could still wind up being better than Maye. 

I think your assumption/worry that they would think Daniels is a better fit for Kliff and will over-weight that (I don’t agree that they’re picking a guy based off of the OC but let’s say they are) is off. I actually think Maye is. 

Edited April 11 by Conn

[Fred Jones]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

If our reason for drafting Daniels is because he fits Kingsbury's offense better then we're an even  bigger joke than I thought. You don't draft a QB to fit your OC. You draft the best QB and make the OC fit the offense around him.

 

Also, Maye has experience with the air raid. He's a better fit for KK.

Exactly, draft the best player.  All this "fit the offense stuff" is BS. 

 

And I think they draft the best player for the long term.

[jg77]

Sharp Football Analysis's Brendan Donahue (apparently the most accurate mock drafter in the past five seasons) has us taking JJ @ pick #2.  Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if he's the pick.

[mistertim]

6 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

He almost never has junk in the pocket and when he does its just head down and run.

 

This is one of my biggest concerns with him. He usually had pretty clean pockets, but when he didn't have one he didn't often navigate / climb it and get passes off or break the pocket and make off-platform throws. The most common result of pressure was him very quickly pulling his eyes down and running. Many times it worked out for him, but it shouldn't be assumed that that success rate will carry over into the NFL.

 

That's why I said I think he's likely to be running a lot early in his career, because he's probably going to be facing pressure way more often than he did in college. So more running, more hits, more injury chance. 

[SoCalSkins]

6 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

If our reason for drafting Daniels is because he fits Kingsbury's offense better then we're an even  bigger joke than I thought. You don't draft a QB to fit your OC. You draft the best QB and make the OC fit the offense around him.

 

Also, Maye has experience with the air raid. He's a better fit for KK.

I don’t think Peters will make Daniels his first ever draft pick. I simply don’t believe that will be the case. 

[MartinC]

7 minutes ago, jg77 said:

Sharp Football Analysis's Brendan Donahue (apparently the most accurate mock drafter in the past five seasons) has us taking JJ @ pick #2.  Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me if he's the pick.

It would shock the hell out of me. 
 

It’s going to come down to Daniel’s versus Maye. I suspect it’s a very close evaluation - maybe Daniel’s is ahead by a nose based on the smoke. They both have in person visits - how those go will be huge and could tip this one way or another.

 

Also for those already calling a decision to draft Daniel’s over Maye a ‘disaster’ - can we let whoever we draft take a couple of snaps before we start talking about ‘disasters’?

 

 

[jg77]

3 minutes ago, MartinC said:

It would shock the hell out of me. 
 

It’s going to come down to Daniel’s versus Maye. I suspect it’s a very close evaluation - maybe Daniel’s is ahead by a nose based on the smoke. They both have in person visits - how those go will be huge and could tip this one way or another.

 

Also for those already calling a decision to draft Daniel’s over Maye a ‘disaster’ - can we let whoever we draft take a couple of snaps before we start talking about ‘disasters’?

 

 

Quinn is big on a QB's ability to process and read defenses...and apparently JJ dominated the white board session at the combine.  So who knows.  Adam Peters and co definitely shocked everyone when they took Trey Lance in San Fran.

[WashingtonRedWolves]

We got people going through the 5 stages of grief already. Good lord, give the kid a chance if he really is the pick

[MartinC]

2 minutes ago, jg77 said:

Adam Peters and co definitely shocked everyone when they took Trey Lance in San Fran.

Which went well … 🙂

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

2 minutes ago, jg77 said:

Quinn is big on a QB's ability to process and read defenses...and apparently JJ dominated the white board session at the combine.

That whiteboard is the only thing he’s ever dominated.

[The Consigliere]

17 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I don't think the FA moves really signify win now. We're just filling roster spots. We had $90 mil to spend and like 30 something roster spots. You can't just fill all those spots with minimum salary players, there should be SOME attempt to at least be competent and professional. But no one we signed really has massive long term contract implications and most can be gotten out of in like 2 years.

 

But I do agree with you that drafting Daniels is a win now move. He's more NFL ready and his age + style of play means he pretty much has to play right away.

 

Sheehan on 980 this morning brought up a point that I thought was both interesting and alarming. He said something about how Dan Quinn could end up pounding the table for Daniels, since mobile athletic QBs are always harder for defensive coaches to gameplan against, and that could end up swaying a first time GM like Peters. I really hope that's not the case, but it wouldn't shock me. 

Toss out the Maye'ness or Daniels'ness of my side here, and just focus on how colossally stupid the process there is. Isn't QB hard enough to evaluate w/o making a major piece of the process, some rando DC's preferences in building his schemes? Last week I listed the 1990's first round QB hit rate, and it was an apocalypse of misses, things got better in the aughts, and last decade, but lets be straight? If you are a GM, and you heavily weight what Dan Quinn freaking thinks, or the recently fired Arizona coach or whatever, and not focus on all your scouts, and analytics tools, you're a raging moron, full stop. I literally could not care a whit what Quinn or Kingsbury or anyone else thinks. I want the scouts to plug in their tape grinding and in person scouting, I want the analytics geeks to plug in their analytics data, I want the interviews and medicals, the due diligence, first in and last out, or last in and first our questions answered, I want to know how well he handles the processing information. 

 

And then make your pick. The "He's a gamer," takes, the "he won the national title and John Harbaugh says...." takes to go right in the dust bin where they belong. Reminds me of the quote on the Kenard Lang Pick from '97, "We were really impressed w/how he finished his drills at the combine after spraining his ankle," just total anecdotal horse ---- like that is bad enough with reasonably easier propsect positions to evaluate, but freaking QB's? The hardest position to evaluate in sports should not be a setting where a DC's philosophy, or a ---- canned former OC/Arizona coach's system preferences hold sway. That kind of stuff makes me lose my mind. Isn't it hard enough? Don't you see the carcasses on the side of the road that I see: Bryce Young, Kenny Pickett, Trey Lance over there, Zach Wilson and the Milf talk over next to that dumpster, Fields' running in that trash chute, Danny Nickel's sees his Dimes circling the drain to the left, the entire vaunted '18 and '99 classes, all of them, total --- save McNabb, Allen, and Lamar, and nobody, still, can explain why the accurately challenged trio from those two classes two decades apart were the only ones to make it out of the dumpster fire that held the dreams of Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Cade McNown, Daunte Culpepper, Sam Darnold, Josh Rosen, and Baker's Brett Saberhagen career impression?

 

It's so god -----ed hard to do this we have literally decades where it was almost entirely misses (1984-2003 for instance), and yet instead of looking at the only things that even give any semblance of warning, for what is suggestive of potential warning signs, or potential for hitting, we want to go with nebulous arguments like, "Man, that Daniels would be hard to game plan against?" 

 

Guess what? so would Jake Locker, RGIII, Jameis Winston, Johnny Manziel, Danny Nickels, Fields etc, and nobody gives a ---- about any of those guys these days. 

 

It's the penultimate example of the "forest for the trees" of analysis. Please for the love of God, it was bad enough dealing with Casserly spending the entire 1990s missing on every single first round draft pick until Snyder took over and fired him in '99, and Snyder and Cerrato, and freaking nepo baby Bruce Allen, and the dying last years of the Snyder Hell Scape, and Riverboat Ron spending half a decade getting coin flip decisions wrong every single god ------ time, do we also have to put up with the most important draft selection in a decade, being decided by a freaking DC's preferences who was just ---- canned out of Atlanta just a few short years ago the second he no longer had a franchise QB to backstop his coaching? Can we just have something nice, for once. It's been thirty one years. We don't ask for much. Just good process and best practices so we have a freaking chance. I feel like Hudson, in Aliens, after the rescue ship nearly kills them crashing after an alien climbed aboard, and killed the load master, and the pilot. Give us a ---- damned chance man. And then of course, game over, man, game over. 

 

 

[Warhead36]

13 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

I don’t think Peters will make Daniels his first ever draft pick. I simply don’t believe that will be the case. 

GMs do dumb things all the time. Even the good ones. Heck Peters's 49ers took Trey Lance. Ozzie Newsome took Kyle Boller. Bobby Beathard took Ryan Leaf. It happens. Its disappointing, but its probably gonna happen here too it looks like.

[SkinsFTW]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

E.  My concern with Daniels is durability,  But if they take him, i got no doubt they are as aware of this concern as we are so I presume they got a plan to help mitigate it.

 

[Going Commando]

26 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Obviously our coaches/FO are soooo much smarter than us though. Just like Ron Rivera was smarter than us. And Bruce Allen. And so on....

This is why I can never turn off my brain, forget my opinions, and just accept these sorts of appeals to authority.  The NFL has always been full of hacks that got where they were based on friendships and nepotism.

 

It's not like the medical field, or any field where the experts within it are genuine, super smart, highly professional, constantly renewing and cultivating their knowledge, and can't perform even the most basic functions of their job without authentic expertise.  It's an entertainment business centered around a ****ing kid's game.  It's also not like finding a QB is some impossible riddle to solve either, even the God Damn Jags, Bengals, Bills, and Chargers all managed to do it.  If we can't manage to do it with everything served up on a plate for us, then we are hopeless.

[wit33]

 

 

1 minute ago, Going Commando said:

This is why I can never turn off my brain, forget my opinions, and just accept these sorts of appeals to authority.  The NFL has always been full of hacks that got where they were based on friendships and nepotism.

 

It's not like the medical field, or any field where the experts within it are genuine, super smart, highly professional, constantly renewing and cultivating their knowledge, and can't perform even the most basic functions of their job without authentic expertise.  It's an entertainment business centered around a ****ing kid's game.  It's also not like finding a QB is some impossible riddle to solve either, even the God Damn Jags, Bengals, Bills, and Chargers all managed to do it.  If we can't manage to do it with everything served up on a plate for us, then we are hopeless.

The plate includes Daniels as well, right? 

[Going Commando]

1 minute ago, wit33 said:

The plate includes Daniels as well, right? 

 

If we were picking three?  Why not?  But not at two.  Maye is the best choice by far.

[Idaho fan]

8 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

GMs do dumb things all the time. Even the good ones. Heck Peters's 49ers took Trey Lance. Ozzie Newsome took Kyle Boller. Bobby Beathard took Ryan Leaf. It happens. Its disappointing, but its probably gonna happen here too it looks like.

So I take it that the perceived "dumb thing" you are referring to is to draft Daniels?  

There is also a similar chance that they draft Maye and he ends up being added to your list and ends up being the "dumb thing".   

 

I recall nearly 100% of us thinking Chase Young was the no brainer pick.  Turns out it was the dumb thing.  

 

[Est.1974]

18 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

Also for those already calling a decision to draft Daniel’s over Maye a ‘disaster’ - can we let whoever we draft take a couple of snaps before we start talking about ‘disasters’

Yep, the draft day thread will be like a bad game day thread if we take Daniels. 

[88Comrade2000]

26 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

I don’t think Peters will make Daniels his first ever draft pick. I simply don’t believe that will be the case. 

Peters will trade the pick and stump us all.

[SkinsFTW]

Just now, Going Commando said:

 

If we were picking three?  Why not?  But not at two.  Maye is the best choice by far.

 

Clearly Maye is the best choice therefore if they pick anyone other than him they have to be betting on him being a bust.

 

That's all I can think of.

 

[Est.1974]

1 minute ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Peters will trade the pick and stump us all.

Erm, not all