The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[mistertim]

49 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

Daniels was sacked 22 times.  22.  Maye was sacked 29, and Williams 32.  Sack to pressure ratio is just that - dividing the sacks by the pressures.  If his ratio was 24%, that means he had 89 pressures -- a phenomenally low number.  Playing in the SEC.  Your opinion notwithstanding, Daniels was quite obviously outstanding at recognizing and avoiding pressure.  This means he not only was sacked less, but he also made fewer bad decisions due to pressure.  22 sacks.  4 interceptions. 40 touchdowns.  Those are outstanding numbers. You are incredibly pretending that sacks were a problem for Daniels.  Your comment above would be a clear indication that you either didn't see him play very often, are unaware of what exactly the sack-to-pressure ratio is, or both.  I understand the concern folks have about his frame.  In view of the fact that he hasn't missed games due to injury, I think the risk is worth taking, but I understand the concern.  Your comments regarding pressure and sacks, well, I don't understand that at all.

 

The number is pretty concerning to me as well, but it's not my biggest issue with Daniels and pressure. My biggest issue is the historically low percentage of times he threw it after getting pressured / breaking the pocket. It means that when pressured and/or breaks the pocket he's far more likely to pull his eyes down and tuck the ball and run.

 

You can see this in the tape as well. Much more often than not when he breaks the pocket he doesn't keep his eyes downfield (or if he does, it's not for long) and then quickly looks to run instead of scrambling and making an off-platform throw, which is what both Caleb and Maye usually do.

 

This is very concerning, and I think would be concerning for coaches too. Because not only is he leaving plays on the field (a lot of time he's pulling his eyes down and running with receivers open down the field) but also because this means he'll run it much more often when pressured which will lead to more hits, which increases injury risk, especially with his slight frame.

 

And this was at LSU with a very good OL. What will happen when he's likely under much more pressure in the NFL behind a likely mediocre OL? It could get pretty ugly.

[Jumbo]

5 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

That too, I like to think I'm fair minded, but I have the clearest of biases when it comes to what particular metrics/evaluative tools worry me and what don't, and if a guy bullseyes multiple "alarm bell" traits, and another doesn't, my biases are gonna send me to the quieter profile.

 

I tend to think everyone has some of that, but if there's one thing I've learned the past decade, its to put less investment in what I like, and more in what alarms me (I'm just much better at sniffing out busts, than hits at QB). Of course being an anxiety ridden neurotic, that feeds even more into that "The Boxer" lyric. Me love my anxieties lol (hence the glass is not merely half full, it's poisoned too!!!, and don't you know "you never get involved in a land war in Asia....".). I feel like I'm rolling down a hill in a tire full of my own intellectual blankey biases lol like that Smashing Pumpkins 1979 video.  

 

Just so there's no misunderstanding, that post was more in support of a number of your recent points and reflects on just how hard it can be to persuade an entrenched opposing view.

 

It's a lyric that's been a constant companion of mine for decades. We are all well served by being on guard against emotionally/ego driven biases in any matter.  🙂

 

[Skinsinparadise]

54 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

This is lazy as hell, but Leggette is basically on my do not draft list because of virtually every single analytics/dynasty dork I can find is scared ----less of him and HATES him as a prospect. I haven't dug into the #'s yet, too busy w/a crazy month from hell going on, but Leggette is basically an ugly as hell prospect. If he hits, it will be as an outlier from what I understand. 

 

 

Sure that infamous, late breakout year, same reason why you hit me hard for liking Terry Mclaurin before the draft.

 

As I explained then context is king.  If its as simple as just use analytics to decide this -- then the PFF guys would be ruling the draft world among others.  But in their defense they don't seem to be a slave to their own anaylitics and go past them in their own evaluations.  they have a good draft show where they explain their rankings and you'd be surprised how often they mention context in their rankings.

 

As for Legette, I haven't pushed him like I did Terry.  I know @KDawg if I recall was on him first.  But he's fun to watch.   Metcalf light.   And like Terry has some good combine measurables -- really good athlete.

 

When it comes to late breakout athletes you want to know their story.  Some are knuckleheads like Devin Thomas so you rule them out.  For some others if you buy that their is a narrative that explains it and you like everything else then why not?

 

I am sure they are meeting with Legette while being perfectly aware of the red flag of late breakout.  But they clearly aren't a slave to that.  And I am glad they aren't.  Not every player fits into a neat formula where they are all grouped together.

 

You probe and explore these guys.  I haven't done it with Legette yet much.  But with Terry article after article came out before the draft about what a special dude he was, hard worker, leader and he explained why he was a late breakout player.  You pay your scouts and GMs to probe. 

 

https://www.postandcourier.com/sports/carolina/game****s-xavier-legette-is-overlooked-no-longer/article_4f212004-52fb-11ee-8627-7bf360310517.html

“I remember last August, there were some NFL scouts out there watching practice and he made some catches and I remember one pulling me aside and saying, ‘Who in the heck is that?,’” coach Shane Beamer said. “He’s really worked hard to be more of a receiver this year. He’s always in the building.”

South Carolina receiver Xavier Legette’s 296 receiving yards lead the SEC. That total is fourth in the country, and of the three receivers above him, two have played in one more game and the guy in third place, FIU’s Kris Mitchell, only has one more yard.

 

Ask him where this came from and he points to December, when a two-touchdown day in the Gator Bowl, including a catch so nasty that Jerry Rice would have been wowed, gave him the gumption to proclaim it. Get used to it, he said afterward, because next season is going to be like this all the time.

Easy to say, advanced-calculus difficult to do. It wasn’t just the work involved, it was the same hurdles Legette always had in front of him. He’d started just under half of his 41 games over four seasons at USC, yet his season-high in receiving yardage was 167. Attitude, want-to and skill weren’t the issue.

Receivers Bryan Edwards, Shi Smith, Jalen Brooks, Josh Vann and Dakereon Joyner were. And that doesn’t even get into the tight ends the Game****s threw the ball to so effectively.

After the Gator Bowl, Brooks and Vann would be gone, and Joyner would soon be learning a new position. Edwards and Smith were long departed but Juice Wells, Ahmarean Brown and lauded freshman Nyck Harbor would be there.

 

Legette’s vow to still be on top was chutzpah, the seed of a great game sprouting into a harvest of an offseason. Then September arrived, and Legette is out-jumping every defensive back he can find and has six more catches than his next-closest USC competitor.

How?

Built to last

“I don’t think the kid’s missed one practice since I’ve been here. Which is hard,” offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains said. “Because if you go that hard all the time, you’re going to have nicks and bruises, and get beat up and have sore hamstrings. But the guy’s built to last and he’s done things the right way.”

Even Loggains was slightly guilty of overlooking Legette when he first arrived. He saw the plays in the bowl game, certainly thought Legette looked the part, but there were a lot of players in the room. He wanted to make sure that Legette wasn’t the guy who puts an apple on the desk for the teacher and does things right just for a little while.

Now he’s telling all of the Game****s’ freshmen, regardless of position, “Watch how 17 practices.”

It’s taken a while to arrive, not by choice or talent, just circumstances. Legette has always been the “other” guy, the one that follows a list of other names when it comes to naming potential breakout players.

 

 

“He played for me for four years, started as a freshman. He was at receiver up to his junior year,” said John Williams, Legette’s coach at Mullins High. “We lost our quarterback and we didn’t have another one, so we came up with the idea that our best athlete needed to be at QB, and he just shined. Probably one of the best athletes I ever had.”

 

He was also one of the most unfortunate. Legette’s mother, Anita Reaves-Legette, died in July 2015 after a long fight with breast cancer. His father, Anthony Legette, died in March 2019. Neither saw Legette graduate high school, nor play a college snap.

“He was hurtin,’ now, I’m telling you. But he never missed practice. I believe practice was an outlet for him,” Williams said. “It motivated him to want to do it.”

 

 

 

Legette rushed for over 1,800 yards and scored 19 touchdowns while passing for close to 900 yards and another 14 TDs as a senior. His ratings were decent — as high as the No. 8 player in South Carolina — but his status as an athlete who may not have a definite box to fit in during college had many of his offers coming from smaller schools.

Even then-USC coach Will Muschamp wanted Legette to greyshirt, to delay his enrollment so he would count toward the next class, since numbers were just too tight for the Class of 2019. Legette accepted, knowing that he would just have to prove more people wrong.

Easy Rider

Freshman year was more of an impact on special teams than receiver, with four kickoff returns for 113 yards. Sophomore year (the COVID year), a hamstring injury cost him the last four games.

In 2021, he was just about to emerge from the shadows after his game-winning touchdown catch against Vanderbilt in Beamer’s first SEC win, but a scooter accident waylaid his progress. Nobody was hurt long-term, so everybody could joke about it — official nickname-bestower Pete Lembo still calls Legette “Easy Rider” — but it again shuffled him to the back of the pack.

Then in 2022, despite Wells emerging as a star and Brooks and Jaheim Bell also catching passes, Legette got a taste. He returned the opening kickoff for a 100-yard house call against Texas A&M, and he scored three other touchdowns, two in the Gator Bowl.

His vow to be the guy carried into every day of the offseason.

“I can remember early July, players had some time off around the Fourth, and I get a FaceTime from Xavier Legette,” Beamer said. “He’s out in Arizona and he and Deebo Samuel are out there throwing routes and working out together.”

Beamer gives out weekly awards on offense, defense and special teams and for the first time ever, he had one man win two of the three special-teams awards after the Furman game. The same guy also won an offensive award.

 

 

 

Three guesses as to who it was.

“You root for people who earn what they’ve gotten, and he continues to earn it every day,” said Loggains, who also does a pitch-perfect imitation of Legette’s slow-as-syrup Pee Dee twang. “When you go through really hard things in life, those are people you bet on.”

The wheel of fortune has finally landed on X.

 

Edited April 8 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

9 minutes ago, Jumbo said:

 

Just so there's no misunderstanding, that post was more in support of a number of your recent points and reflects on just how hard it can be to persuade an entrenched opposing view.

 

It's a lyric that's been a constant companion of mine for decades. We are all well served by being on guard against emotionally/ego driven biases in any matter.  🙂

 

It's my father's favorite song :). Still remember the first time I heard it, circa 1992, when he played it for me back then (just as I was opening up to the music of his 20's in my teens). Such a marvelous collection of songs, The Only Living Boy in New York, and Bridge are on there, and you still haven't even got to El Condor Pasa and the rest. Just amazing stuff. It took me till I was 16 or 17, but eventually I grasped why his music trumped my era's in my late teens, and now its just so patently obvious lol, though the eighties and early nineties did have some truly wonderful stuff too, just not on that level (don't skip The Rhythm of the Saints either, I prefer it to Graceland, The Obvious Child is flat out spectacular). 

Nope, SIP, but it's an exceptionally sticky metric, a HUGE collection of the best performing WR's in the league showed it early, a tiny sliver didn't, McLaurin's a nice outlier, but he's still one guy, representing less than 1/6 of who typically hits. I'd rather bet on the 5/6's cohort, but you might be right, and I haven't dug in at all, as I said, I just know some of my most trusted people are really "off" on him. I'd rather someone else take the risk personally. To be fair, all of the 2nd round guys we might select at 36 or 40 scare me to degrees though, all the profiles have alarming features to some degree or another, even everyones favorite McConkey. 

Edited April 8 by The Consigliere

[Stoox]

Not sure if this has been posted, but  Kurt Benkert (who played QB in the league) likes Daniels better than Maye at this point. Daniels' mechanics are a lot better and he can start on Day 1. Maye not so much...

 

So far, among the analysts who have actually played in the league (Chris Simms, Dan Orlovsky and Kurt Benkert), all of them favour Daniels by a wide margin as being the better QB.

 

 

 

 

Edited April 8 by Stoox

[Number 44]

Just now, mistertim said:

 

The number is pretty concerning to me as well, but it's not my biggest issue with Daniels and pressure. My biggest issue is the historically low percentage of times he threw it after getting pressured / breaking the pocket. It means that when pressured and/or breaks the pocket he's far more likely to pull his eyes down and tuck the ball and run.

 

You can see this in the tape as well. Much more often than not when he breaks the pocket he doesn't keep his eyes downfield (or if he does, it's not for long) and then quickly looks to run instead of scrambling and making an off-platform throw, which is what both Caleb and Maye usually do.

 

This is very concerning, and I think would be concerning for coaches too. Because not only is he leaving plays on the field (a lot of time he's pulling his eyes down and running with receivers open down the field) but also because this means he'll run it much more often when pressured which will lead to more hits, which increases injury risk, especially with his slight frame.

 

And this was at LSU with a very good OL. What will happen when he's likely under much more pressure in the NFL behind a likely mediocre OL? It could get pretty ugly.

Again, what you are missing, IMO, is the fact that he had a very low number of pressures.  He is outstanding at recognizing where pressure will be coming from and making excellent decisions to move and avoid the pressure.  If no defender gets within one and a half yards of him, the play doesn't count as a pressure.  His 22 sacks are not a concerning number.  Heck, if that concerns you, how about Maye's 29 or Williams' 32?  I think you are misreading his excellent ability to avoid pressure to somehow mislead you to thinking he is bad.  The guy avoids pressure extremely well.  A QB without his athleticism and decision making ability would have had many, many more pressures (and sacks) on the exact same plays.  If he wasn't as good as he is at avoiding pressure and therefore allowed a lot more defenders get within a yard and a half of him, his STP ratio would appear to be better, but that's the fallacy of looking at one stat without context.  The claim that Daniels never threw off platform is just plain false.  That he did run when he saw he had huge open field was in no way a bad thing.  Sacks were not a problem.  Turnovers were not a problem.  The guy performed and presented major problems to the opposing defenses.  I find it hard to watch his tape and see it any other way. 

 

I'm only seeing the tape and reading what I can.  I'm not a scout and don't have the knowledge, experience, and information that Peters and company have.  I trust them and will be happy with however they decide to go.  My choice would be Daniels, but I'm totally unqualified to make such a decision.  I do know that I don't buy into your arguments.  Daniels' tape and results just don't fit your narrative in my eyes.  Heck, maybe something came up in Daniels' visit that turned Peters and company off to him, I've got no way to know that.  In any case, we aren't going to resolve anything here today.  I'm just extremely unlikely to ever believe that having a low number of sacks and a very low number of pressures are valid reasons to be concerned about a QB.

[NYSkins21]

6 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

Here's the thing though. The first time Maye stepped on the field as a starter, sophomore year, with the crap talent and horrid OL he turned in a top 10 QBR performance in all of college football. The first time Jayden Daniels stepped on the field as a 19 year old he ranked 55th in QBR. Hmmmm, not fair though, not close to like to like conditions. '20 was a covid year, and the Pac-12 didnt play a ton of games, so his age 20 year doesn't work, okay, we'll give him '21 instead when he was playing as a 21 year old, how'd he do in QBR compared with Maye? 

 

41st. 

 

Better talent, third year in college football, age 21 and 41st in QBR.

 

Maye, second year in college, age 20, and 10th in QBR in the nation, and significantly worse talent.

 

You know the funniest bit? 

 

Drake Maye's worst year, where he sucked, and regressed, and was awful, and Chris Simms says hell no? He tied Howell in terms of QBR rankings for a season, and remember, Howell's breakout season was the short sample size 2020. On top of that, Drake Maye's worst QBR final ranking was better than all of Daniels seasons, 2019, the shortened 2020, 2021, and 2022, save his fifth year. 

 

That's what's so funny to me.

 

If you rank the seasons of Daniels and Maye they come out like this:

1st: Jayden Daniels 5th year (5th as starter) Age 22 (1st in QBR)

2nd: Drake Maye's 2nd year (1st as starter) Age 20 (10th in QBR)

(Sam Howell 14th in QBR in covid shortened '20 season)

3rd: Drake Maye's 3rd year (2nd as starter) Age 21 (14th in QBR)

4th: Jayden Daniels 4th year (4th as starter) Age 21 (18th in QBR)

(Sam Howell 22nd in QBR in 2021)

5th: Jayden Daniels 3rd year (3rd as starter) Age 20 (41st in QBR)

 

Again, I feel like I'm taking crazy pills at times here. People should realize breakout age matters. The argument that he improved each year and got better and better is not the selling point some people think it is. With college prospects it's a near truism that the longer it takes you to impress at the college level the less likely you are to hit as a professional, period. The only reason that doesn't scare the hell out of me with Daniels, is that I don't think he was ever bad as a QB in college. I think he was always solid to good, but any great, breakout season in year 5 in college, is not the selling point people think it would be. It's infinitely more impressive to accomplish those things younger and has far more stickiness when it's done earlier on. The good news is, I don't think he was ever bad, or subpar, I just don't think he was very good or great until it largely became nonsense, as a selling point due to age/years in school. 

 

I mean, even if you didn't learn this lesson the decades before it was patently obvious, we literally just had yet another example two classes ago with Kenny Pickett, who was meh to solid to good for a few years, and then finally in his final year, blew the doors off. Comes into the pros, and yeah, it was bull----. Pickett was 73rd in QBR in '19, 64 in the covid '20 season and then exploded in his fifth college year with a top 9 QBR performance, 42 TD's, 7 picks, and he just got dumped two years after being picked inside the top 20, and there are an absolute litany of other old prospects who were mirage's just like him. 

 

This isn't a game, or a trend we should play around with. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I hate to say it because I’m 100% in on what AP and DQ want to do but I will be a little disappointed if they went Daniels.

 

I agree 100% with you on breakout age. I’m sure they have the data as well.

[BayouBrave86]

4 hours ago, SoCalSkins said:

The situation at ASU was of his own making. Jayden and his mother were involved with the recruiting violations that were part of the reason numerous coaches got fired and went on record to throw his teammates under the bus in the press. He’s already proven to be a coach killer and locker room cancer. His increased use of social media recently is not a good sign of any improvement going forward. 

You should have to link reports when you're making claims like this. Can you please provide proof of this? 

[mistertim]

13 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

Again, what you are missing, IMO, is the fact that he had a very low number of pressures.  He is outstanding at recognizing where pressure will be coming from and making excellent decisions to move and avoid the pressure.  If no defender gets within one and a half yards of him, the play doesn't count as a pressure.  His 22 sacks are not a concerning number.  Heck, if that concerns you, how about Maye's 29 or Williams' 32?  I think you are misreading his excellent ability to avoid pressure to somehow mislead you to thinking he is bad.  The guy avoids pressure extremely well.  A QB without his athleticism and decision making ability would have had many, many more pressures (and sacks) on the exact same plays.  If he wasn't as good as he is at avoiding pressure and therefore allowed a lot more defenders get within a yard and a half of him, his STP ratio would appear to be better, but that's the fallacy of looking at one stat without context.  The claim that Daniels never threw off platform is just plain false.  That he did run when he saw he had huge open field was in no way a bad thing.  Sacks were not a problem.  Turnovers were not a problem.  The guy performed and presented major problems to the opposing defenses.  I find it hard to watch his tape and see it any other way. 

 

I'm only seeing the tape and reading what I can.  I'm not a scout and don't have the knowledge, experience, and information that Peters and company have.  I trust them and will be happy with however they decide to go.  My choice would be Daniels, but I'm totally unqualified to make such a decision.  I do know that I don't buy into your arguments.  Daniels' tape and results just don't fit your narrative in my eyes.  Heck, maybe something came up in Daniels' visit that turned Peters and company off to him, I've got no way to know that.  In any case, we aren't going to resolve anything here today.  I'm just extremely unlikely to ever believe that having a low number of sacks and a very low number of pressures are valid reasons to be concerned about a QB.

 

Jesus Christ. You really need to read peoples' posts more carefully. Please point to me, in ANY of my analyses of Daniels, where I have ever said he "never" does something. It doesn't exist. So spare me the lame, tired, and disingenuous tactic of claiming people are saying a guy "never" does something. I've said he rarely does it. Same thing with anticipation throws and tight window throws. Sure, he has done it, but that is much different than doing it consistently.

 

Also feel free to stop with the tactic of avoiding peoples' actual points they're making and instead talking about something else. In this case (and in the case of your response about P2S ratio) you simply avoid engaging in the actual point the poster brought up and instead run with the "argument from incredulity" schtick where you claim to be perplexed as to how people can say things about Daniels and his pressures when he didn't get sacked a ton, when the person wasn't even talking about sack numbers.

 

As far as the actual point in my post, the numbers and the tape back up what I'm saying. IIRC when it comes to number of times Daniels throws vs run or get sacked when outside of the pocket (usually that will be pressures) Daniels has a historically low percentage that he passes. I think he was ranked 193 out of 196 qualifying QBs since 2019 on that metric. And you see it in film. He regularly pulls his eyes down and runs very quickly after breaking the pocket vs scrambling and making an off-platform throw.

 

As I said, this is concerning for a couple of reasons. One is that he leaves big pass plays on the field (with guys open) and two because it means he tends to run a lot and quickly in the face of pressure, which is inevitably going to lead to more hits, which is inevitably going to lead to more injury risk.

Edited April 8 by mistertim

[Darrell Green Fan]

3 hours ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Robert Griffin had amazing athletic ability too, and he would get destroyed back there & looked like he was exploding every time he got hit. Being able to run fast is not the same as knowing how to play QB.

I didn't see a lot of tape of Griffin using his athleticism to escape trouble in the pocket, he was famous for having horrible pocket presence and had no feel for pressure. I have however seen lot of tape of Daniels escaping trouble with his athleticism.  

[ILikeBilly2]

9 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

...He is outstanding at recognizing where pressure will be coming from and making excellent decisions to move and avoid the pressure.  If no defender gets within one and a half yards of him, the play doesn't count as a pressure.  His 22 sacks are not a concerning number.  Heck, if that concerns you, how about Maye's 29 or Williams' 32?...

 

 

I'm confused by what you are saying.  If he had:

1) the best online of the top 3 qbs

2) the best WRs of the top 3 qbs

3) makes excellent decisions to move and avoid the pressure

4) was sacked 22 times

 

If all true, his sack number is terrible.  Give him Maye's oline and receivers and his sack numbers would balloon.  Maye, with worse support only had 29 sacks.  Give him the limited pressure JD faced and his sacks are likely in the teens.

[clskinsfan]

10 hours ago, Number 44 said:

Pretending that sacks were a problem for Daniels flies in the face of reality.

No it's really not. His tape is clear as day. If he gets pressured in the pocket he is getting sacked 30% of the time. The fact that he had a low pressure rate shows he was playing with an all star cast. It has nothing to do with his ability to move around the pocket at all. 

8 hours ago, mistertim said:

If his ratio was 24%, that means he had 89 pressures -- a phenomenally low number.  Playing in the SEC.  Your opinion notwithstanding, Daniels was quite obviously outstanding at recognizing and avoiding pressure.

Again those numbers have very little to do with Daniels. But more to do with who he was playing with. Go look at his stats before he got to LSU. They were even worse. 

8 hours ago, Stoox said:

all of them favour Daniels by a wide margin

Convenient to leave out Hasselbeck who calls him the best QB prospect he has ever graded in the 15 years he has been grading them. Everyone has their own opinion. Including everyone in this thread. In the end we all just want them to make the choice that helps us win. 

[BayouBrave86]

5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

No it's really not. His tape is clear as day. If he gets pressured in the pocket he is getting sacked 30% of the time. The fact that he had a low pressure rate shows he was playing with an all star cast. It has nothing to do with his ability to move around the pocket at all. 

How many top 50 defenses did Maye play against? Jayden played against 6 top 50 defenses and still managed to average over 8 ypc with the sacks. That's something Michael Vick, Vince Young, Johnny Football and Lamar Jackson couldn't even do. Vince was the closest with 7.4 ypc. 

[Llevron]

Y’all are funny 😄 

[mistertim]

6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

 

Again those numbers have very little to do with Daniels. But more to do with who he was playing with. Go look at his stats before he got to LSU. They were even worse. 

 

 

 

That was not my quote! I will not stand for this slander!    

[Number 44]

Fellas, believe what you want.  We aren't going to help Peters with his decision.  The STP ratio is 24% because the number of pressures is low, not because the number of sacks is high.  That seems obvious to me, but apparently not to everyone.  So be it.  If you think Daniels is bad, I'm not going to argue with you any more about it.

[clskinsfan]

8 hours ago, BayouBrave86 said:

How many top 50 defenses did Maye play against? Jayden played against 6 top 50 defenses and still managed to average over 8 ypc with the sacks. That's something Michael Vick, Vince Young, Johnny Football and Lamar Jackson couldn't even do. Vince was the closest with 7.4 ypc. 

I dont hate Daniels' running ability. In fact I think it is amazing and would love to watch it every Sunday while he is wearing the burgundy and gold. But claiming he is some master of pocket movement simply isnt accurate. 

8 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

 

 

That was not my quote! I will not stand for this slander!    

Woah. How did that happen? 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

3 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

The STP ratio is 24% because the number of pressures is low, not because the number of sacks is high.

Why does that matter? The number of sacks is high relative to the number of pressures.

[wit33]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

Otoh, if you dig into Daniels, cherry pick Halloween through Bowl game '21, he tosses 4 TD's against 7 picks in his final 6 games of the season. Before that he was 6 TD's versus 3 picks. Did he ---- the bed down the stretch? I don't know, there's a ton of sample size. Daniels does the same in '22, starting the season with 14 TD's versus 1 pick, wrapping with 3 TD's versus 2 picks. 

 

I don't know what it means. I don't care too much either though since there's plenty of sample size to look at with both of them. Daniels has 50+ games worth of data to digest, Maye's got 30. Its interesting, but I don't know if what happens late on is meaningful. Could mean they're playing hurt, tired, or just sucked for a stretch or some other reason I'm not hitting on. 
 

 

 

 

I made zero mention of Daniels and wasn’t attempting to make it a comparison game. I simply presented the information and was curious what your thoughts, especially as it relates to the ‘breakout age’ discussion you posted about. Completely own the breakout age is a sham on the surface— no conclusions made. I acknowledge that my posting history on this subject is pro Daniels and not as much for Maye, though I'd be perfectly fine if they selected him. I do appreciate a lot about Maye as a quarterback.

 

I can find tough stretches for Tom Brady as well, not what I was attempting to do. I dislike some stats on a whole and they especially lack value at times at the collegiate level due to their being 350 plus division one schools and a huge gap in talent in some games.
 

I thought it was interesting that a third of his games to end the season and what you and most described as a regression season coincided.

 

 

 

 

 

Edited April 8 by wit33

[Skinsinparadise]

24 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Don't have a WR in my wishlist but I do expect a trade down or two with the picks we have and really like Pearsall a lot. 

 

As I've mentioned on the draft thread my three guys in the 2nd, high floor, all of whom I love in that order:  McConkey, Pearsall, Wilson.  I think all three will be great slot WRs.  Burton to me is right there with him but he's a wildcard for me because he's a headcase.

 

Polk is fun but I wanted him to run faster.  Legette is boom-bust but I like his chances better than Tony Franklin.  He's a tad faster than him and 40 pounds heavier, that's size.  

 

But bringing this back on topic, either dude can use another WR and IMO this is a great draft to add one.

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, Number 44 said:

Fellas, believe what you want.  We aren't going to help Peters with his decision.  The STP ratio is 24% because the number of pressures is low, not because the number of sacks is high.  That seems obvious to me, but apparently not to everyone.  So be it.  If you think Daniels is bad, I'm not going to argue with you any more about it.

 

Wait, what?

 

Do you understand how ratios work? The STP percentage is high because he was sacked a high amount of times relative to how often he was pressured. That's the entire point.

[DogofWar1]

1 minute ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

Why does that matter? The number of sacks is high relative to the number of pressures.

I think the argument is that other players would have substantially higher pressures in the same situations, and thus his P2S ratio is inflated.  Like if it was Maye he'd have like 140 pressures instead of 89 and so if we could suss out the higher # of pressures he WOULD have had a much lower P2S ratio.

 

I'm not sure I agree with that, but I think that's the point being made here.

 

Now, re-watching some of Daniels' tape, I don't see that but I'm not gonna pretend I just rewatched all 13 games looking for pressures he avoided.  But what I saw was a lot of getting the ball out quick at the top of the drop, and indeed, a lot of running when nothing was there.  He can also *do* a lot of stuff he is criticized for not doing enough of, like throwing on the run, but it's obviously not a ton and the 20% throw rate while on the run matches that. 

 

But, and maybe it's just me not being good at seeing this stuff, but I don't see a ton of times where there would have been a pressure that wasn't a pressure because of pocket movement on Daniels' part.  It's not zero, but I don't see some massive cache of those.  Vast majority of the time he wasn't pressured it seemed to be because he got the ball out quick, or because protection held up.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

McLaurin's a nice outlier, but he's still one guy, representing less than 1/6 of who typically hits. I'd rather bet on the 5/6's cohort, but you might be right, and I haven't dug in at all, as I said, I just know some of my most trusted people are really "off" on him. I'd rather someone else take the risk personally. To be fair, all of the 2nd round guys we might select at 36 or 40 scare me to degrees though, all the profiles have alarming features to some degree or another, even everyones favorite McConkey. 

 

The reason why I like to talk about McLaurin is he was a perfect example of why the late breakout age stuff requires context.   I recall a regular on the draft thread (not you) said Terry McLaurin sucks before that draft.  And that seem to seep to some others where when we drafted him I had to defend the pick nonstop.  Heck when I posted the morning before we took him why he was one of my wants in the third -- you'd think I had three heads.   I spent more time defending him and that pick then any player in all of my years doing this.

 

But, none of that makes me discount the breakout year stuff.  It's a factor.  It just makes me want to know more about the player and why.  Terry IMO wasn't that hard.  He was an uber good athlete.  His stats were good enough -- 20 YPC among others.  But the kicker was article after article popped about how special this guy is as a dude.  That stuff matters. 

 

As to alarm bells, yeah sure its the draft.  50% of players in the 2nd bust.   I've not done too bad when I am absolutely sold on a WR post round 1.  It doesn't happen all the time.  But I am not bad when I'll die on a hill for someone.   Terry would be one example.  Pittman another.  I am that sold on McConkey.  i got no red flags on him aside from durability.    If I had to pick a Terry in this draft, post round 1, it would be McConkey.   And like Terry part of that narrative is his intangibles.  Reading about him, he's a special dude.

 

As for Legette, I got to dive in more.  He can return kicks which is valuable with the new rules.   But I just love his physicality in the way he plays and his athleticism is freakish.  But he's not my Terry in this draft, that would be McConkey.  I'll die in a hill for McConkey. 😎

Edited April 8 by Skinsinparadise

[Number 44]

Just now, mistertim said:

 

Wait, what?

 

Do you understand how ratios work? The STP percentage is high because he was sacked a high amount of times relative to how often he was pressured. That's the entire point.

Or the number of pressures was very low.  A pressure is defined as a play in which a defender gets within a yard an a half of the QB before the pass.  I hope that we all can agree that the defense is attempting to pressure the QB on all pass plays.  If we give the QB no credit for avoiding pressure to the point that he allowed only 89 pressures (within 1.5 yards) in the season, we are kidding ourselves.  Avoiding pressures is a good thing.  Not sure how there can be disagreement on that.  When we are dealing with small sample size, percentages can easily appear distorted.  I think it's safe to say that pretty much every game there's at least one play where the OL has a blown assignment and a sack happens where the QB had no chance.  To pretend that all 22 of Daniels' sacks were his fault seems rather silly to me.  This is true of pretty much all college QBs.  I'm sorry, I just don't see sacks as being a problem for Daniels, and certainly nothing I've seen here would cause me to change my mind on that.  Peace.

 

  

[FootballZombie]

I saw someone posted the rankings, but I don't think I've seen anyone post the vid w/ associated explanations.

 

Unfortunately there are no timestamps in the vid but someone in the comments posted this so you can jump around to the prospects your interested in. Its not a long watch if you only review the sections involving WIlliams, Daniels and Maye like me.

 

8:35 Caleb Williams

14:48 Jayden Daniels

16:36 J.J. McCarthy

18:38 Drake Maye

20:55 Michael Penix Jr.

24:02 Bo Nix

27:05 Jordan Travis

27:46 Joe Milton

 

 

Edited April 8 by FootballZombie